MANAGING RISKS AND ENHANCINGCOMMUNITY ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE

VARIABILITY AND CHANGE USINGSUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES

AND CLIMATE FORECASTING

Presentation to the SCR Regional Workshop, AACC 23rd – 25th June 2009

By Alphonce Katunzi

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PRESENTATION OUTLINE Tanzania Country Context

CC, Poverty and Livelihoods

CCA and DRR in Tanzania

IFTz and CCA, DRR & Development

The Project – background & justification

Project Objectives and Actions

Approach, Methodology and Project Locations

Findings, achievements and key lessons

Issues & Project contribution to CSA to DRM

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COUNTRY CONTEXT Size = 948,350 km² (881,000km² -Mainland, 2,000 km² - Zanzibar).

Country’s population = 40 million (80% rural)

Poverty: 36% below Basic Needs poverty line.

Major economic sectors: Agriculture, Mining, Services

Agriculture:

mainstay of the economy (35% of GNP, 80% of exports & 90% of the employment).

potential varies from semi-arid to fertile and highly productive land under rain-fed agriculture.

45-75% of area = Semi-Arid’ (SAT), with 200-800 mm rainfall

Agriculture production in SAT mainly rain-fed = inadequate, high variability; prolonged dry spells, even during the season.

Main occupation in SAT: agriculture, pastoralism and agro-pastoralism.

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CC LINKS TO POVERTY AND LIVELIHOODS

Livelihoods: CC undermines livelihoods, through changes in temperature and rainfall. E.g. yields from rain-fed agriculture in Tanzania to reduce by 50% by 2020

Disasters: CC increases frequency and/or intensity of natural hazards -floods and droughts.

Rural communities: hardest hit by CC impacts –why?

Most dependent on climate-sensitive natural resources & ecosystems – agriculture and livestock (67% rural people)

Live in rural areas with most exposure to climate hazards.

Lack capacity to cope with CC effects due to limited human, financial and institutional capacity.

Food security: increased food shortages and famines.

Adaptation more effective than mitigation at least in the short-term.

Impacts of CC - risk to poverty reduction efforts (URT, 2007) & attainment of Development Vision 2025 and MDGs.

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CC development, equity, urgent issue – threatens progress on

development goals, affects many sectors.

Climatic elements (particularly rainfall variability & uncertainty) most limiting factors – affects rural livelihoods and agricultural productivity.

Drought - most critical climatic constraint to development in SAT.

Low soil moisture retention capacity, highly variable rainfall, seasonal availability of water, limited growing season, declining soil fertility due to erosion. and low adaptive capacity of farmers.

Impacts of drought:

Makes farming more difficult especially in marginal lands

Leads to poor or no yields, food insecurity and reduced hh income

Food shortages, increased food prices, seasonal food crises & famines.

Can result into loss of livestock and migration in search of pastures.

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FOCUS ON CCA AND DRR DRR & CCA share same goal – reducing vulnerability to weather and climate related

hazards.

Adaptation = finding and implementing ways of adjusting to CCs.

Approaches to CCA at different levels - from community, national & intern. levels.

― UNFCCC. National Communications, Tanzania NAPA, The Hyogo Framework for

Action

― CBA and CSOs

For dryland SAT communities - adaption options must address the deteriorating

environmental conditions that undermine their livelihoods.

Evidence: SAT communities have various autonomous adaptation and risk

management options drawing upon their rich and extensive knowledge base to cope

with adverse environmental conditions and shocks, examples;

Drought resistant crops,

SWC & water harvesting innovations,

Irrigation, cereal & seed banking,

Diversifying income sources by engaging in other farm or non-farm enterprises

Use of seasonal climate forecasting to reduce production risks.

CCA efforts exploit fully such knowledge – esp. in Arid and SA regions.

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DRM IN TANZANIA – NATIONAL CONTEXT

Major hazards - natural and man-made, both

climate- and non-climate related

Climate-related : Drought, floods, landslides,

epidemics, pest infestations, landslides

Non-climate related: earth quake, fire, civil

strife.

Examples:

Widespread drought of 2005-06 & 2008-

09;

Floods of Kilosa of 2008-09

Drought and famine of Loliondo and 67

other districts of 2008-09

Floods in Northern Tz of 2006-07;

RVF outbreak 2007;

Impacts: livelihoods affected, infrastructure

destroyed, food insecurity, hunger and

famine, health problems, loss of lives.

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DRM IN TANZANIA – NATIONAL CONTEXT CONT’D

Aim: disaster preparedness to reduce vulnerability and improve

mitigation capacity.

Disaster preparedness measures:

Legislation on DRM – national disaster management policy (2004) &

enabling legislation, disaster management dept – PMO; Regional,

district, village level disaster managemet plans & committees, inter-

sector co-ordination and mainstreaming,

National policies on environment; population growth, land

conservation…, NSGRP.

One UN Joint Programme: strengthening national disaster

preparedness and response capacity.

Crop & food security monitoring by MAFS, FEWS…, National SGR…

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IFTZ AND CCA, DRR & DEVELOPMENT IFTz work - fostering local development by

building local capacity to tackle poverty using mainly local resources.

Focus: agriculture and rural development, livelihoods; natural resource management;

Past - focus on environmental issues (Projects: PFI, SFI, IK, LUM & SWC, PROLINOVA, CCBs…)

Present – CC from environmental to developmental issue; impacts on agriculture and livelihoods, worsens poverty

DRR – central to supporting communities adapt to CC; Anticipatory risk management options – common as community’s unconscious response to CC&V.

CC affects the poor the most - CCA reduces their vulnerability to CC effects.

DRR reduces poor people’s vulnerability to hazards.

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THE PROJECT

Project idea: Based on CA call for Innovative Projects on CCA – Focus on improved seasonal climate forecasting

Background: Farmers & pastoralists in SAT long relied on traditional weather forecasting methods & other adaptation methods to warn against impending drought, food scarcity and other climatic stresses and design appropriate mitigation and/or coping and adaptation strategies.

Project Focus: Demonstrating how the local knowledge, skills, and creativity of the people could be harnessed for coping with the effects of degrading environmental, CC&V.

Between 2008/09 to 2009/10 - supported community-based efforts for adapting to CC, via action-research linking scientific and local knowledge on seasonal climate forecasting.

Enable farmers make reliable forecasts and increase their resilience to CC impacts.

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THE PROJECT – CONT’D Rationale:

Increasing demands on adaptation to CC, local economic and social development,

Traditional strategies need to be improved and strengthened.

Need for timely information on emerging CC to plan appropriate responses.

Little documented evidence on use of climate forecast by smallholder farmers in Tanzania, despite its importance for; Drought risk management in agriculture Increasing the resilience & adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities. Decision making on choice of crop/cropping systems, selection of crop

varieties and resource allocation. Improving the adaptive capacity of rural livelihoods and make them feel in

control of their lives

Little has been focused on community level adaptation strategies and how these can be improved using scientific techniques.

Aim:

Support CBA to CC and its impacts by enhancing use of potential adaptation options.

Draw lessons from the action-research study in order to increase the resilience of community and up-scale the experiences to other semi-arid areas.

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OBJECTIVES:Overall Objective:

To enhance the resilience of vulnerable communities in semi-arid central Tanzania to cope with and adapt to CC&V and variability using reliable information on climate forecast and prediction.

Main Actions:

Collect, analyse and assess met. information, data & trends on climate forecast.

Inventory and participatory assessment of local knowledge on climate and

weather forecasting.

Participatory CRA with communities of likely CC impacts - focus on agric. sector.

Plan and implement community-based risk management strategies for

enhancing adaptation to the impacts of CC&V.

Strengthen capacity of communities and supporting institutions to prepare and

respond effectively to future CC risks.

Promote engagement of communities in decision-making processes on climate-

related adaptation strategies > to influence policy change.

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PROJECT PARTNERS, LOCATIONS & DURATION

1. INADES Formation Tanzania2. Hombolo Research Institute -

Dodoma3. Tanzania Meteorological

Agency – Dodoma 4. District Government & Dept. Of

Agriculture Extension5. Village Governments6. Village Communities

Locations: 4 villages (2 villages in each

district) 2 districts in 2 regions of SAT Chamwino - Dodoma region. Manyoni - Singida regionDuration: 2008-09 & 2009-10 (2

seasons)

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PROJECT APPROACH & METHODOLOGY

Action-research process to involve

communities in the learning

process - assessing the potential

role of seasonal climate forecasts

for increasing the adaptive

capacity of rural communities.

Participatory tools and methods -

for understanding the climate,

climate risk assessment and

forecasting (CRA tools).

Sustainable livelihood approach -

used as a basis for exploring the

theoretical interaction of

livelihoods and climate.

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KEY FINDINGS - COMMUNITY PERCEPTIONS OF CC&V

Climate variability has a large influence on the livelihoods

of communities in SAT

Climate elements with largest influence are wind, rainfall

and temperature

Wind - Increase of wind speed and strength – most

frequently mentioned change

Precipitation - Rainfall pattern changed, becoming

more unreliable compared to the past, its onset and

cessation being very unpredictable, with increased

frequency of bad years compared to good years (every

2-3 years).

Temperature - suggestion that temperatures were

getting warmer, and two villages suggested the cold

period was getting colder (cold period in June-July

getting much colder).

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Month and Year

Total

mon

thly

rainf

all (m

m) .

.

Total

2000/01

seasonal

rainfall =

498mm

Total

2001/02

seasonal

rainfall =

395mm

Total

2002/03

seasonal

rainfall =

304mm

Total

2003/04

seasonal

rainfall =

665mm

Total

2004/05

seasonal

rainfall =

469mm

COMMUNITY PERCEPTIONS – CONT’D

Crop and livestock pest (including quelea quelea birds) & disease incidence increasing, flooding and water lodging was increasing, again linking these changes to deforestation.

In some cases, the change is attributed to neglect of traditions and customs, e.g. abandoning traditional rituals in today’s communities due to modernization.

Farmers think the situation is likely to get worse in the future, e.g. in a five year period, it is likely to have 3 bad and only two good years.

The local perceptions of CC&V tend to link mainly to local weather patterns - no linkage is made to global climate changes.

Village names, linked to climate and weather events and/or patterns:

Ikowa village – name means ‘bumper harvest’ in local ‘Gogo’ language .

Past - common for most households to harvest record yields of sorghum and millet.

Nowadays - most families get zero yields due to drought and lack of rains.

Perceived strengths & weaknesses to adapt

Strengths: Human capital/ ability to farm – energy, strength, family labour, endurance Crop diversity – wide range of crops and varieties Ability to keep livestock – which can act as a buffer, eg exchange for food Crop resilience – having drought resistant seed and rain-water harvesting innovations. Ability to store food – food stocks and long term storage knowledge

Weaknesses: Natural capital – need to rent land Financial capital – no access to credit, lack of capital to buy and sell crops Human capital – poor understanding of weather, potential to contract AIDS

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PERCEPTIONS - CONT’D Recurring pattern - Frequency of bad years

is increasing every two or three years now and were more frequent than good years.

Vulnerablility varies by gender, age, lifecycle stage and socio-economic status of the individual.

Future: to get worse - in a five year period three years would be bad and two would be good.

Perception linked mainly to local patterns, no linkage to global changes.

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FINDINGS – ADAPTATION AND RISK REDUCTION OPTIONS

Risk reduction and coping strategies adopted by

farmers include establishing demonstration plots for

testing various adaptation options for improving soil

moisture retention capacity, innovations in rain-water

harvesting and use of drought resistant crop

varieties.

Tillage practices (Deep tillage using spring

jembe, Magoye ripper, and oxen-ridger, compared

to local practice of ‘slash and burn’)

Drought-resistant varieties: sorghum, sunflower,

sweet potatoes, and maize.

Use of organic manure

Tree nurseries and tree planting.

Installing and using simple rain gauges to

monitor rainfall – alerts farmers on rainfall

amount sufficient soil moisture for planting.

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FINDINGS - LOCAL FORECASTING KNOWLEDGE

A lot of available local knowledge still in use for weather & climate forecasting.

Most of the local indicators considered to be potential predictors of weather and future climate (score 80-100).

Farmers believe that the indicators give correct forecast of the rainfall.

Some local predictions supported by scientific (met.) data e.g. rainfall variability.& trends

Scientific & met. information inaccessible at local level

Indicator % Score Rank

TREES

Mwaliganza 88% 3

Mibuyu 80% 5

Miondo 75% 7

Msele 88% 3

Maembe 88% 3

Mkungugu 85% 4

ANIMALS

Ngakakuona 90% 1

Chimuhanga 88% 3

INSECTS

Mchwa (Ants) 65% 9

BIRDS

Mguulo 89% 2

Yobwa 78% 6

STARS

Local Name 75% 7

WIND 70% 8

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PROJECT ACHIEVEMENTS

Use of drought resistant varieties and deep tillage practices gave significant yield increases compared to other practices.

Information on local knowledge & indicators of weather forecasting collected, validated and shared.

Sharing of scientific information on weather - made communities more conscious of weather trend/patterns and effects on production activities.

Farmers record trends in rainfall amounts and link the data with local forecasts. Rain gauge measurements have been improved and are more reliable.

Making information accessible – to community members. Before, such information was not accessible within the villages due to poor communication and linkage with meteorological office.

Improved record keeping - Use of record cards to monitor and record patterns and progress of crop growth stage/condition – Used to forecast yield, and relate this to effects on crop growth and weather.

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PROJECT ACHIEVEMENTS – CONT’D

Understanding by TMA on the gap that exists

between farmers’ needs and the weather forecasts

that they provide

Recognition of the role of IK in weather forecasting

Potential of integrating IK & scientific forecasting

Awareness raising to stakeholders (farmers,

extension workers, district officials, TMA, NGOs)

Facilitated formation of groups to undertake

weather forecasting based on IK

Community-based fora where IK forecasting is

integrated with scientific forecasting from TMA

Risk assessment & management and developing

strategies for adaptation & DRR

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LESSONS LEARNT

Improved seasonal climate forecasting, use of drought-resistant crops and moisture-

retention agronomic package are risk management options that play a key role in helping

decision making on farming operations and enhancing adaptation to CC&V.

Farmers attach particular importance on the value of local knowledge for prediction, and

the added value of scientific knowledge on weather forecasting.

Local predictors supported by scientific data, e.g. on rainfall pattern - the seasonal

migration pattern of birds locally known as ‘Yobwa/Koronga’ has been proved by

meteorological scientists to be perfectly correlated with the ITCZ (Inter Tropical

Convergence zone) which is the rainfall making mechanism in the East African Zone.

Need to conserve traditional forests and other sources of local predictors in order to

sustain the local weather forecasting knowledge. However, more research is needed to

establish the potential local predictors of climate/weather forecast

Accessibility & timely availability of meteorological information could assist farmers to

plan their agricultural activities. Particularly important for forecasting the onset of rains.

Need to introduce simple meteorological stations in villages to monitor various climate

parameters (temperature, evaporation and rainfall) and its trend.

Other risk management options – e,g economic activities important to help them bridge

the critical periods of poor production

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ISSUES & CONTRIBUTION TO CSA TO DRM

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Translating & communicating information & data

on adaptation options - to increase awareness,

understanding & responsiveness of communities &

other actors.

Influence development of effective policies by

governments for supporting/guiding CCA & DRM

Need in-depth shared understanding of local

people’s perceptions and adaptation strategies -

action research/learning process and appropriate

communication/learning tools.

Integrating IK in school curricula – potential .

Enhancing interaction btn communities and other

actors (Govt, scientists, NGOs, media..)

Contribution to CSA to DRM:

Enhances community adaptive capacity to

cope with or manage CC risks.

Contributes to addressing poverty by

reducing vulnerability & increasing livelihoods

options

Thank You

and

Asanteni kwa Kunisikiliza

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