February 2002 Page 1

The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015

"Trendpfade und ihre  Eintrittstickets "Das Zusammenspiel potentieller Interaktionsfelder und ihrer Effekte in der

Technologie Revolution bis 2015

Unterscheiden Sie zwischen "Erfinden der Zukunft" und „Vorhersagen der Zukunft"

Michael Klemen

February 2002 Page 2

The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015

How to do it1.

Laufendes

Geschäft

heute kurzfristig mittelfristig langfristig

Extrapolieren

über Roadmaps

Produkte

Technologien

Kunden

Retropolieren

aus Szenarien

Neue

Märkte

Neue

Kundenanforderungen

Neue

Technologien

Neue

Geschäftsmöglichkeiten

Zeithorizont

Einflussfaktoren

Individuum

Gesellschaft

Politik

Ökonomie

Umwelt

Technologie

Kunden

Wettbewerb

Szenarien aus den Arbeitsgebieten

Automation & Control

Information & Communication

Lightning

Medical

Power

Transportation

Strategische

Vision

Source: FAZ, Siemens, Feb.2002

February 2002 Page 3

The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015

Type A Adoption Type B Adoption Type C Adoption

Visibility

Maturity

Peak ofInflated

Expectations

Slope ofEnlightenment

ActualBenefit

PerceivedBenefit

TechnologyTrigger

Trough ofDisillusionment

Plateau ofProductivity

Source: Gartner Research

Hype cycles1.

February 2002 Page 4

The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015

‘90-‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08

Visibility

Year

Peak of inflatedExpectations

Slope ofEnlightenment

TechnologyTrigger

Trough ofDisillusionment

Plateau ofProductivity

Source: Gartner Research

InternetWeb

Dot-ComStarts

U.S. IPOs1997/1998

U.S. Xmas1998

EuropeanIPOs 1999 Dot-Com Share Fallout

Investor Disillusionment

Brick-and-Mortar Failures

Dot-Com Shakeout

Business Disillusionment

„True“ E-Business Emerges

Optimised E-Business

Post-InternetBusinesses

Era on NLOs

2006 to 2008E-Business Ends„E“ is Best

“e” Hype cycle1.

February 2002 Page 5

The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015

Visibility

Maturity Source: Gartner Research

WirelessCRM

CRM Infrastructures

Self-Service

VolP

WebCollaboration

WAP

State-BasedAnalytics

Contact Center

CRM Analytics

CRM

Rules-Based Personalization

Proprietary Data Structures

CMS

Universal Queue

E-MailMarketing

Banner AdsASP‘s Unassisted

Selling

ERMS

EAI

SFA

Call Center IVR ACD

Web Measurement

Database MarketingAffinity Programs

Type A Adoption Type B Adoption Type C Adoption

CRM Hype cycle1.

Peak of inflatedExpectations

Slope ofEnlightenment

TechnologyTrigger

Trough ofDisillusionment

Plateau ofProductivity

February 2002 Page 6

The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015

Type A Adoption Type B Adoption Type C Adoption

Benefit

TimeSource: Gartner Research

Wireless cycle1.

Peak of inflatedExpectations

Slope ofEnlightenment

TechnologyTrigger

Trough ofDisillusionment

Plateau ofProductivity

Wireless available in market leaders

2001

Devices available Limited Software

1994 - 1997

2003 – 2004

Wireless fever

2004 - 2005

Expectations of users not widely met

2006

Some enterprises will gain great success

Wireless technology adapted in most software applications

2008

February 2002 Page 7

The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015

Outlook2.

Range of potential interacting areas and effectsof the Technology Revolution by 2015

Source: RAND

February 2002 Page 8

The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015

Tickets2.

Technology Revolution by 2015Trend Paths, Meta-Trends & Tickets

Source: RAND

February 2002 Page 9

The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015

Findings3.

Range of possible future developments and effects from Genetically Modified Foods

Source: RAND

February 2002 Page 10

The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015

Findings3.

Range of possible future developments and effects of Smart Materials

Source: RAND

February 2002 Page 11

The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015

Findings3.

Range of possible future developments and effectsof Nanotechnology

Source: RAND

February 2002 Page 12

The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015

Synergies4.

The synergistic Interplay of Technologies

Source: RAND

February 2002 Page 13

The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015

Thank You