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UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Bangladesh A. Karmalkar 1 , C. McSweeney 1 , M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk General Climate Bangladesh is a low-ůLJŝŶŐ ĐŽƵŶƚƌLJ ŝŶ SŽƵƚŚ AƐŝĂ ůŽĐĂƚĞĚ Ăƚ Ϯϭȗ-Ϯϲȗ ŶŽƌƚŚ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ĞƋƵĂƚŽƌ TŚĞ ĐŽƵŶƚƌLJ experiences a tropical monsoon-type climate, with a hot and humid summer from March to June, a relatively cooler monsoon season from June to September, and a dry winter from October to March. Bangladesh has warm temperatures throughout the year, with relatively little temporal and spatial ǀĂƌŝĂƚŝŽŶƐ JĂŶƵĂƌLJ ƚĞŶĚƐ ƚŽ ďĞ ƚŚĞ ĐŽŽůĞƐƚ ŵŽŶƚŚ ǁŝƚŚ ƚĞŵƉĞƌĂƚƵƌĞƐ ĂǀĞƌĂŐŝŶŐ ŶĞĂƌ ϮϲȗC ĂŶĚ AƉƌŝů the warmest with temperĂƚƵƌĞƐ ĂƌŽƵŶĚ ϯϱȗC TŚĞ ĐůŝŵĂƚĞ ŝƐ ŽŶĞ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ǁĞƚƚĞƐƚ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ǁŽƌůĚ MŽƐƚ parts of the country receive over 2000 mm of rainfall a year with 80% of it falling during the monsoon (June-September) season. Because of its location just south of the foothills of the Himalayas, where monsoon winds turn west and northwest, the northeastern Bangladesh receives the greatest average precipitation. Bangladesh is subject to devastating cyclones, originating over the Bay of Bengal, in the periods of April to May and September to November. The country is low-lying, and therefore highly vulnerable to future changes in sea level. Recent Climate Trends Temperature Surface air temperature in Bangladesh has increased since 1960, particularly in JJA and SON (rainy summer) seasonƐ ďLJ ĂƌŽƵŶĚ ϬϯȗC ;ϬϬϳȗC ƉĞƌ ĚĞĐĂĚĞͿ ĂŶĚ ϬϱȗC ;ϬϭϮȗC ƉĞƌ ĚĞĐĂĚĞͿ respectively. Daily temperature observations show significantly increasing trends in the frequency of hot days and hot nights.

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Page 1: UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Bangladesh...UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Bangladesh A. Karmalkar 1, C. McSweeney , M.New1,2 and G. Lizcano1 1. School of Geography and

UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles

Bangladesh

A. Karmalkar1, C. McSweeney

1, M. New

1,2 and

G. Lizcano1

1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford.

2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk

General Climate

Bangladesh is a low-ノ┞キミェ Iラ┌ミデヴ┞ キミ Sラ┌デエ Aゲキ; ノラI;デWS ;デ ヲヱこ-ヲヶこ ミラヴデエ ラa デエW Wケ┌;デラヴく TエW Iラ┌ミデヴ┞ experiences a tropical monsoon-type climate, with a hot and humid summer from March to June, a

relatively cooler monsoon season from June to September, and a dry winter from October to March.

Bangladesh has warm temperatures throughout the year, with relatively little temporal and spatial

┗;ヴキ;デキラミゲく J;ミ┌;ヴ┞ デWミSゲ デラ HW デエW IララノWゲデ マラミデエ ┘キデエ デWマヮWヴ;デ┌ヴWゲ ;┗Wヴ;ェキミェ ミW;ヴ ヲヶこC ;ミS Aヮヴキノ the warmest with temper;デ┌ヴWゲ ;ヴラ┌ミS ンヵこCく TエW Iノキマ;デW キゲ ラミW ラa デエW ┘WデデWゲデ キミ デエW ┘ラヴノSく Mラゲデ parts of the country receive over 2000 mm of rainfall a year with 80% of it falling during the

monsoon (June-September) season. Because of its location just south of the foothills of the

Himalayas, where monsoon winds turn west and northwest, the northeastern Bangladesh receives

the greatest average precipitation.

Bangladesh is subject to devastating cyclones, originating over the Bay of Bengal, in the periods of

April to May and September to November. The country is low-lying, and therefore highly vulnerable

to future changes in sea level.

Recent Climate Trends

Temperature

Surface air temperature in Bangladesh has increased since 1960, particularly in JJA and SON

(rainy summer) seasonゲ H┞ ;ヴラ┌ミS ヰくンこC ふヰくヰΑこC ヮWヴ SWI;SWぶ ;ミS ヰくヵこC ふヰくヱヲこC ヮWヴ SWI;SWぶ respectively.

Daily temperature observations show significantly increasing trends in the frequency of hot

days and hot nights.

Page 2: UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Bangladesh...UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Bangladesh A. Karmalkar 1, C. McSweeney , M.New1,2 and G. Lizcano1 1. School of Geography and

o TエW ;┗Wヴ;ェW ミ┌マHWヴ ラa けエラデげ1 days per year in Bangladesh has increased by 26 (an

additional 7.2% of days) between 1960 and 2003. The rate of increase is seen most

strongly in JJA when the average number of hot JJA days has increased by 9.9 days per

month (an additional 32% of JJA days) over this period.

o The average ミ┌マHWヴ ラa けエラデげ ミキェエデゲ ヮWヴ ┞W;ヴ キミ B;ミェノ;SWゲエ エ;ゲ キミIヴW;ゲWS H┞ ヱヵ ふ;ミ additional 4% of nights).

Precipitation

Mean rainfall over Bangladesh has decreased by 1.1mm per month (0.5%) per decade

between 1960 and 2003, but this decrease is not statistically significant. The country has

experienced an increase in MAM rainfall by 3.4% and a decrease in JJA rainfall by 1.7%

between 1960 and 2003.

The proportion of rainfall falling in heavy events has decreased slightly (by 1.1%) between

1960 and 2003. The magnituSW ラa ;ミミ┌;ノ ヱどS;┞ ヴ;キミa;ノノ マ;┝キマ; ゲエラ┘ゲ ゲデ;デキstically significant

decreases (4.47mm per decade) between 1960 and 2003. 5-day annual rainfall maxima

shows negative trend, but is not statistically significant.

GCM Projections of Future Climate

Temperature

TエW マW;ミ ;ミミ┌;ノ デWマヮWヴ;デ┌ヴW キゲ ヮヴラテWIデWS デラ キミIヴW;ゲW H┞ ヰくΓ デラ ヲくヶこC H┞ デエW ヲヰヶヰゲが ;ミS ヱくン デラ ヴくヱこC H┞ デエW ヲヰΓヰゲく TエW ヴ;ミェW ラa ヮヴラテWIデキラミゲ H┞ デエW ヲヰΓヰゲ ┌ミSWヴ ;ミ┞ ラミW Wマキゲゲキラミゲ scenario is around 1-ヲこCく TエW ヮヴラテWIデWS ヴ;デW ラa ┘;ヴマキミェ キゲ ゲキマキノ;ヴ デエヴラ┌ェエラ┌デ デエe year.

All projections indicate substantial increases in the frequency of days and nights that are

IラミゲキSWヴWS けエラデげ キミ I┌ヴヴWミデ Iノキマ;デWく

o Aミミ┌;ノノ┞が ヮヴラテWIデキラミゲ キミSキI;デW デエ;デ けエラデげ S;┞ゲ ┘キノノ ラII┌ヴ ラミ ヱΑ-39% of days by the

2060s, and 16-52% of days by the 2090s.

o Nキェエデゲ デエ;デ ;ヴW IラミゲキSWヴWS けエラデげ aラヴ デエW ;ミミ┌;ノ Iノキマ;デW ラa ヱΓΑヰ-99 are projected to

occur on 26-37% of nights by the 2060s and 30-50% of nights by the 2090s. Nights

that are hot for each season are projected to increase most rapidly in JJA, occurring

on 46-97% of nights in every season by the 2090s.

All projections indicate decreases in the frequency of days and nights that are considered

けIラノSげ2 in current climate.

1 けHラデげ S;┞ ラヴ けエラデげ ミキェエデ キゲ SWaキミed by the temperature exceeded on 10% of days or nights in current climate of that region and season.

2 けCラノSげ S;┞ゲ ラヴ けIラノSげ ミキェエデゲ ;ヴW SWaキミWS ;ゲ デエW デWマヮWヴ;デ┌ヴW HWノラ┘ ┘エキIエ ヱヰХ ラa S;┞ゲ ラヴ ミキェエデゲ ;ヴW ヴWIラヴSWS キミ I┌ヴヴWミデ Iノキマ;デW of that

region or season.

Page 3: UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Bangladesh...UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Bangladesh A. Karmalkar 1, C. McSweeney , M.New1,2 and G. Lizcano1 1. School of Geography and

Precipitation

Projections of mean annual rainfall from different models in the ensemble are broadly

consistent in indicating small increases in rainfall for Bangladesh.

o Projected change in mean annual rainfall ranges from -8 to +26mm per month (-10

to +24%) by the 2090s. Ensemble median values for all seasons, except DJF, are

positive.

o JJA rainfall is projected to change by -11mm (-4%) to +73mm (31%) per month by

the 2090s.

The proportion of total rainfall that falls in heavy events does not show a consistent

direction of change.

The models in the ensemble are broadly consistent in indicating increases in the magnitude

ラa ヵどS;┞ ヴ;キミa;ノノ マ;┝キマ;く Aミミ┌;ノノ┞が ヵどS;┞ マ;┝キマ; Iエ;ミェW H┞ どヶ デラ ЩΑヱママ H┞ デエW ヲヰΓヰゲく These increases are most evident in JJA and SON (wet season) rainfall, when changes of 0 to

Щヶヲママ キミ JJA ;ミS どΑ デラ ЩヴΓ ママ キミ SON ;ヴW ヮヴラテWIデWS キミ ヵどS;┞ マ;┝キマ; aラヴ デエW ヲヰΓヰゲく

Additional Regional Climate Change Information

A lack of consistency between models in representing monsoon processes contributes to

uncertainty in estimates of future precipitation in this region (Christensen et al., 2007).

Tropical cyclones are poorly captured by GCMs and thus potential changes in intensity and

tracks of tropical cyclones in the future are very uncertain. Whilst evidence indicates that

tropical cyclones are likely to become, on the whole, more intense under a warmer climate

as a result of higher sea-surface temperatures, there is great uncertainty in changes in

frequency, and changes to storm tracks, which introduces uncertainty at the regional scale

(Christensen et al., 2007).

Bangladesh is vulnerable to sea-level rise. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) estimates that the global average sea level will rise by 0.18-0.59 m by 2100 relative to

1980-1999 under a range of scenarios.

For further information see Christensen et al. (2007) IPCC Wラヴニキミェ Gヴラ┌ヮ I ‘Wヮラヴデぎ けThe

Pエ┞ゲキI;ノ SIキWミIW B;ゲキゲげ, Chapter 11 (Regional Climate projections): Sections 11.4 (Asia).

Page 4: UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Bangladesh...UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Bangladesh A. Karmalkar 1, C. McSweeney , M.New1,2 and G. Lizcano1 1. School of Geography and

Data Summary

Observed

Mean 1970-99

Observed

Trend 1960-2006

Projected changes by the

2030s Projected changes by the 2060s Projected changes by the

2090s Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max

Temperature

ふこCぶ (change in

こC ヮWヴ decade)

Cエ;ミェW キミ こC Cエ;ミェW キミ こC Cエ;ミェW キミ こC

A2 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.8 2.3 2.4 3.3 4.1

Annual 24.4 0.02 A1B 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.6 2.1 2.9 3.6

B1 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.3 2 2.4

A2 -0.1 0.8 1.7 1.1 1.8 3.1 2.6 3.6 4.8

DJF 18.7 0.07 A1B 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.4 2.1 3.4 2.1 3.1 4.6

B1 0.4 0.7 1.8 0.9 1.4 2.6 1.7 2.2 2.8

A2 0.1 0.9 1.3 1 2 2.5 2.2 3.5 4.4

MAM 26.5 -0.09 A1B 0.4 0.8 1.5 1.3 2.2 2.9 2.1 2.9 4.4

B1 -0.3 0.8 1.3 0.9 1.3 1.8 0.8 2.3 2.6

A2 0.3 0.8 1.4 1 1.8 2.3 2 3.1 3.9

JJA 27.4 0.07* A1B 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.7 2.3 1.9 2.4 3.6

B1 0.2 0.9 1.6 0.9 1.3 2 1.2 1.6 2.4

A2 0.1 0.7 1.4 1 1.7 2.1 2.4 3 4.1

SON 25 0.12* A1B 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.8 2.7 1.5 2.7 3.7

B1 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.7 1.2 2 1.2 1.9 2.7

Precipitation

(mm per

month)

(change in

mm per

decade)

Change in mm per month Change in mm per month Change in mm per month

A2 -13 -1 10 -13 2 20 -13 8 26

Annual 205.4 -1.1 A1B -9 1 13 -4 6 16 -15 10 22

B1 -9 0 6 -7 3 14 -8 6 13

A2 -14 -2 12 -20 -1 18 -19 -3 4

DJF 14.9 -0.6 A1B -13 -1 12 -14 -2 9 -18 0 8

B1 -6 -2 7 -18 1 9 -18 -1 6

A2 -14 0 8 -22 0 25 -16 0 47

MAM 158.9 5.3 A1B -17 3 10 -10 0 35 -11 0 31

B1 -9 1 26 -16 0 21 -15 0 26

A2 -20 4 25 -26 7 49 -5 22 73

JJA 476.7 -8 A1B -16 2 45 -14 16 44 -9 21 68

B1 -26 1 26 -30 5 40 -11 8 51

A2 -28 -5 25 -23 1 36 -23 5 37

SON 172 0.1 A1B -11 -3 15 -21 2 26 -23 10 63

B1 -15 -3 33 -10 1 29 -29 4 35

Precipitation (%)

(mm per

month)

(change in %

per decade)

% Change % Change % Change

A2 -17 0 9 -16 2 15 -17 7 24

Annual 205.4 -0.5 A1B -12 1 6 -4 5 13 -19 8 21

B1 -8 1 6 -9 3 12 -10 4 11

A2 -47 -10 44 -67 -5 117 -66 -20 42

DJF 14.9 -3.7 A1B -57 -11 27 -64 -9 31 -62 -6 34

B1 -46 -14 45 -60 6 44 -61 -4 28

A2 -46 0 21 -39 1 36 -52 2 58

MAM 158.9 3.4 A1B -33 7 36 -46 0 31 -24 0 31

B1 -34 3 37 -22 3 28 -32 -1 41

A2 -14 2 8 -11 2 19 -4 7 31

JJA 476.7 -1.7 A1B -6 1 8 -5 5 17 -6 9 21

B1 -10 0 10 -11 3 15 -4 4 20

A2 -25 -4 23 -22 2 20 -26 5 26

SON 172 0 A1B -9 -2 14 -19 2 24 -21 9 58

B1 -13 -4 31 -11 1 29 -33 3 28

Page 5: UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Bangladesh...UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Bangladesh A. Karmalkar 1, C. McSweeney , M.New1,2 and G. Lizcano1 1. School of Geography and

Observed

Mean 1970-99

Observed

Trend 1960-2006

Projected changes by the

2030s Projected changes by the 2060s Projected changes by the

2090s Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max

%

Frequency

Change in

frequency

per decade

Future % frequency Future % frequency

Frequency of Hot Days (TX90p)

A2 **** **** **** 17 21 38 24 30 52

Annual 11.2 1.68* A1B **** **** **** 19 23 39 23 28 50

B1 **** **** **** 17 19 32 16 23 39

A2 **** **** **** 19 27 38 34 50 61

DJF 9.6 0.67 A1B **** **** **** 22 33 42 25 40 55

B1 **** **** **** 16 23 33 21 28 37

A2 **** **** **** 17 32 41 35 49 62

MAM 9.9 0.16 A1B **** **** **** 21 32 43 31 45 64

B1 **** **** **** 20 23 34 22 31 43

A2 **** **** **** 23 32 71 32 44 92

JJA 12.1 2.46* A1B **** **** **** 20 32 72 26 41 91

B1 **** **** **** 21 26 58 18 34 69

A2 **** **** **** 24 31 44 38 48 66

SON 12.2 2.13* A1B **** **** **** 28 31 49 27 44 65

B1 **** **** **** 16 24 40 25 31 48

Frequency of Hot Nights (TN90p)

A2 **** **** **** 29 33 36 40 45 50

Annual 9.4 0.96* A1B **** **** **** 30 35 37 36 41 48

B1 **** **** **** 26 28 30 30 33 37

A2 **** **** **** 26 33 43 49 61 73

DJF 9.2 0.08 A1B **** **** **** 27 37 47 36 50 65

B1 **** **** **** 20 27 32 26 33 42

A2 **** **** **** 26 36 41 43 57 61

MAM 9.6 0.48 A1B **** **** **** 28 40 45 37 50 60

B1 **** **** **** 25 29 34 30 36 44

A2 **** **** **** 41 66 88 64 91 97

JJA 9.3 0.82 A1B **** **** **** 38 67 90 61 85 96

B1 **** **** **** 38 56 81 46 65 90

A2 **** **** **** 26 39 46 39 50 61

SON 9.5 0.4 A1B **** **** **** 25 42 46 31 51 57

B1 **** **** **** 23 30 37 24 39 47

Frequency of Cold Days (TX10p)

A2 **** **** **** 2 4 5 0 1 3

Annual 9.2 -1.43* A1B **** **** **** 1 3 5 1 1 3

B1 **** **** **** 3 4 7 0 3 5

A2 **** **** **** 1 3 5 0 0 1

DJF 10.1 -0.82 A1B **** **** **** 0 2 3 0 1 2

B1 **** **** **** 1 3 6 0 2 4

A2 **** **** **** 1 3 5 0 1 4

MAM 9.4 -1.01 A1B **** **** **** 1 3 5 0 1 4

B1 **** **** **** 2 4 6 1 4 7

A2 **** **** **** 0 2 5 0 0 1

JJA 8.7 -1.60* A1B **** **** **** 0 2 4 0 1 1

B1 **** **** **** 1 2 5 0 2 4

A2 **** **** **** 2 4 6 0 2 7

SON 9.2 -1.66* A1B **** **** **** 1 3 5 0 2 6

B1 **** **** **** 2 4 8 1 3 7

Frequency of Cold Nights (TN10p)

A2 **** **** **** 2 3 4 0 1 1

Annual 8.6 -2.11* A1B **** **** **** 1 2 3 0 1 2

B1 **** **** **** 3 4 5 1 3 4

A2 **** **** **** 0 1 3 0 0 0

DJF 8.4 -2.68* A1B **** **** **** 0 1 2 0 0 1

B1 **** **** **** 1 2 3 0 1 3

A2 **** **** **** 1 2 3 0 0 2

MAM 9.3 -1.53* A1B **** **** **** 0 2 4 0 1 2

B1 **** **** **** 2 3 5 1 2 3

A2 **** **** **** 0 1 2 0 0 0

JJA 8.4 -1.88* A1B **** **** **** 0 0 2 0 0 0

B1 **** **** **** 0 1 2 0 0 2

A2 **** **** **** 1 3 6 0 1 2

SON 8.1 -2.23* A1B **** **** **** 0 3 4 0 1 3

B1 **** **** **** 2 3 6 2 3 6

Page 6: UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Bangladesh...UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Bangladesh A. Karmalkar 1, C. McSweeney , M.New1,2 and G. Lizcano1 1. School of Geography and

Observed

Mean 1970-99

Observed

Trend 1960-2006

Projected changes by the

2030s

Projected changes by the

2060s

Projected changes by the

2090s Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max

% total rainfall falling in Heavy Events (R95pct)

% Change in %

per decade

Change in % Change in %

A2 **** **** **** -3 3 6 -4 6 11

Annual 20.3 -1.10* A1B **** **** **** -2 4 8 -6 6 10

B1 **** **** **** -3 2 4 0 3 7

A2 **** **** **** -34 -4 13 -26 -5 9

DJF **** **** A1B **** **** **** -18 -4 9 -21 -1 8

B1 **** **** **** -23 0 3 -23 2 7

A2 **** **** **** -10 -2 9 -20 0 18

MAM **** **** A1B **** **** **** -15 0 9 -20 2 13

B1 **** **** **** -9 0 6 -11 2 17

A2 **** **** **** 0 3 10 3 7 14

JJA **** **** A1B **** **** **** 1 5 10 -1 7 12

B1 **** **** **** -1 3 7 1 4 11

A2 **** **** **** -7 1 14 -7 5 12

SON **** **** A1B **** **** **** -5 2 8 -9 4 16

B1 **** **** **** -6 2 7 -5 1 9

Maximum 1-day rainfall (RX1day)

mm

Change in

mm per

decade

Change in mm Change in mm

A2 **** **** **** -13 3 26 -10 5 50

Annual 128.1 -4.47* A1B **** **** **** -5 4 21 -16 10 39

B1 **** **** **** -4 3 24 -3 1 21

A2 **** **** **** -18 -2 8 -16 -1 4

DJF 7.5 0.83 A1B **** **** **** -7 -1 3 -16 -1 6

B1 **** **** **** -15 -2 2 -15 -1 2

A2 **** **** **** -4 -1 4 -6 0 5

MAM 33.8 1.65 A1B **** **** **** -3 0 4 -5 1 5

B1 **** **** **** -3 0 4 -6 0 4

A2 **** **** **** -2 3 31 -1 7 45

JJA 83.8 -2.1 A1B **** **** **** -1 5 22 1 7 37

B1 **** **** **** -1 4 22 -3 5 20

A2 **** **** **** -8 0 19 -6 3 18

SON 46.8 -0.93 A1B **** **** **** -3 2 15 -10 5 25

B1 **** **** **** -3 0 11 -5 0 16

Maximum 5-day Rainfall (RX5day)

mm

Change in

mm per

decade

Change in mm Change in mm

A2 **** **** **** -17 6 50 -11 16 71

Annual 267.5 -4.74 A1B **** **** **** -11 11 35 -26 24 52

B1 **** **** **** -5 6 36 -6 8 37

A2 **** **** **** -31 -3 22 -26 -3 2

DJF 12.3 1.11 A1B **** **** **** -14 -3 2 -27 -2 16

B1 **** **** **** -26 -3 7 -24 -2 6

A2 **** **** **** -7 -2 11 -14 -3 18

MAM 60.2 4.37* A1B **** **** **** -8 0 11 -8 3 16

B1 **** **** **** -6 0 9 -9 0 12

A2 **** **** **** 0 5 55 3 16 62

JJA 193.7 -1.14 A1B **** **** **** 1 8 39 -1 18 47

B1 **** **** **** -4 7 32 0 7 36

A2 **** **** **** -17 1 37 -12 8 33

SON 97.2 -3.03 A1B **** **** **** -11 5 27 -23 11 49

B1 **** **** **** -7 5 18 -7 4 41

* indicates trend is statistically significant at 95% confidence

**** indicates data are not available

Page 7: UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Bangladesh...UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Bangladesh A. Karmalkar 1, C. McSweeney , M.New1,2 and G. Lizcano1 1. School of Geography and

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Page 8: UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Bangladesh...UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Bangladesh A. Karmalkar 1, C. McSweeney , M.New1,2 and G. Lizcano1 1. School of Geography and

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