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Yannis C. Yortsos Dean

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Green and Smart for a Sustainable Future (Renewable Energy and Information Technology) THU, Beijing, July 12, 2010 Yannis C. Yortsos

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Lets define two indices: r = w = And two rates: Depletion rate R= r*N; Waste (Pollution; Climate Change) rate W=w*N where N is Global Population (and/or World Flatness) Population, pollution and depletion issues => public policy and economic components

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Business as usual => r and w constant => Resource Depletion and Waste (Pollution) Generation Unsustainable Renewable (green) and intelligent (smart) => r and w decrease => Manageable Resource Limitations, Reduced Waste Towards sustainability r = ; w = R= r*N; W=w*N

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Today: N= 6.8bn people In 2050: N~9.15bn To Relax Demographic Strains Requires Sustainable Economic Growth Global Economic Output Increased by 2-3%/yr (about 1.7% due to technology, rest to growing labor force) This will require sustainable resources

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Fossil Fuels are a Finite Resource Need to Reduce CO 2 Emissions Security of Energy Supply

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Almost Gaussian (e.g. Hubbert peak in oil production) 191 Gb 226 Gb *Courtesy of Dave Rutledge, Caltech Curve is a cumulative normal (mean 1976.3, standard deviation 28.3y) Peak 7 Cumulative oil production Today

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IT advances (Intelligent and Efficient Processes) Materials advances Effect of Technology 8 Courtesy of S. Prakash: From the Methanol Economy by Olah et al. can extend capacity

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Energy=Kinetic (1/2mv 2 ) + Potential (mgh) + + Internal (e.g. chemical bonds, electrons/photons, nucleus) First Law of Thermodynamics: U = Q W Energy=Power + Heat + (Transportation) Fuels (ICE) wind hydro, tides fuels PV nuclear 9 W Q

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Consumption (Demand)Production (Supply) = Transport Cars, planes, freight Heating and Cooling Lighting Electronics Food Manufacturing Wind Solar PV, thermal, biomass Hydroelectric Wave Tide Geothermal Nuclear *Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air, David JC McKay, 2009 www.withouthotair.com

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Transportation Buildings/Food Sustainance Standard of Living Third-hand solar First-hand solar Second-hand solar Second-hand solar Other All calculations for Great Britain (per person per day) 1kWh/day=40W~ 1 light bulb Nuclear not included At first glance, things balance! *Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air David JC McKay, 2009

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Power per unit land or water area Wind2 W/m 2 Offshore wind3 W/m 2 Tidal pools3 W/m 2 Tidal stream6 W/m 2 Solar PV panels5-20 W/m 2 Plants0.5 W/m 2 Rain-water (highlands) 0.24 W/m 2 Hydroelectric facility 11 W/m 2 Geothermal0.017 W/m 2

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The obvious: Replacing/Expanding physical space with cyber space (e-{insert word}) Leads to Increasingly greener IT Cybersecurity (SCADA) Issues Demand Supply Improving Efficiencies by Adding Intelligence (IT): Understudied, poorly optimized Enabling New Technologies

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Transportation Industrial Residential Commercial Improved efficiency with Information Technology (IT) usage 29% expected reduction in GHG Equal to gross energy and fuel savings of $315 billion dollars 2009 U.S. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report, April 2009 http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/usinventoryreport.html 15

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Reducing Demand IT+Green Buildings Green Data Centers Smart Grid: IT+Megacities Combustion Efficiencies Increasing Supply Solar Energy+Solid-State Lighting Carbon Capture and Sequestration Smart Oilfields: IT+ Reservoirs Geothermal Energy USC EFRC (Department of Energy) Partner with Princeton and Delaware EFRCs (Department of Energy) Also Marine Diesel Emissions Partner with Stanford GCEP DoE Cisoft- Partnership with Chevron DoE-LADWP US-China Center Proposal NSF ERC Proposal

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Outcome & Outreach Integrative OPERATION Controls ENERGY Efficiency Comfort Sensor Network Occupant Surveys DATA Collection Data-driven & Predictive Building MODELS provide measured by optimize inform DOEs Smart Grid Demonstration Project @ USC real-time energy data Integrative DESIGN & Retrofit Advanced heat pipes for passive heating and cooling Energy efficient solid state lighting Software & sensor data information systems Comparative sociological & behavioral study Integrative design framework for building sustainability Operational efficiency optimization, control, & demand response Research Thrust Areas Energy efficient building materials 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Outcome evaluations & education outreach 8 Green Buildings

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SPORT Lab Three drivers have led to a datacenter crisis Demand for digital services Increase in power dissipation of IT Increase in cost of electrical energy Datacenter annual growth (15%) is unsustainable Datacenter power projected to be > 8% of US power by 2020 Datacenter carbon emissions are projected to exceed those of the airlines by 2020 Need paradigm shift in data center computing for a more sustainable and scalable IT energy efficiency Green Data Centers: Necessity 18 2.5% of US Power > 50 MMT CO 2 15 New Power Plants

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SPORT Lab Simulation, Modeling, Characterization and Prediction New Building Blocks and Architectures Adaptive Control Policies and Mechanisms Software Primitives, Applications, and Benchmarks Green Data Centers: Key Enablers Pervasive Cross-layer Sensing & Visualization Flexible, Efficient, & Configurable Building Blocks Load Balancing, Virtualization, Server Consolidation Green Applications & Data Center Scale Optimizations 19

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Funded by DoE under American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) Collaborative effort: Los Angeles DWP, USC, UCLA, ISI, JPL and third party vendors $120M, Jan 1 2010-Dec 31 2014 20

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Energy Informatics Power generation, distribution, infrastructure development and maintenance Data analysis and integration, large scale computing infrastructure and scalable applications Usage patterns, consumption behavior analysis, knowledge and awareness dissemination Application of IT to integrate and optimize assets in the energy domain

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Energy Sources High Performance and Distributed Computing Infrastructure Integrated Asset Model for Energy Informatics Distribution Networks Metering Systems Semantic Data Models Consumers Integrated Asset Management

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Research Areas Low Cost, Efficient Photovoltaic Materials Semiconductor Nanostructures Organic Materials Organic / Nanostructure Hybrids LED Materials for Solid State Lighting Molecular Organic LED Materials GaN Nanostructure LED Materials Lighting accounts for24% of the energy used in US buildings. (> 6 Quads * in 1998)!

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Nanostructures for Third Generation Solar Cells and LEDs Nanopore Heterostructures QDs using Block Copolymer Lithography Nanowires for Solar Cells and LEDs c 200 nm InPGaAsGaN

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Phosphorescent OLEDs Revolutionize OLED Technology ROADMAP Targeted % improvement IQE 20-30% Voltage 15-30% Outcoupling 50% 150 lm/W DOE TARGET CEN / UDC: 102 lm/W Konica-Minolta J. Kido Philips

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Make Solar Energy Economical Provide Energy from Fusion Develop Carbon Sequestration Methods Manage the Nitrogen Cycle Provide Access to Clean Water Engineer Better Medicines Advance Health Informatics Reverse Engineer the Brain Secure Cyberspace Prevent Nuclear Terror Restore and Improve Urban Infrastructure Enhance Virtual Reality Advance Personalized Learning Engineer the Tools of Scientific Discovery Sustainability Health Vulnerability The joy of living USC Summit on the NAE Grand Challenges, October 6-8, 2010

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! THU, Beijing, July 12, 2010 Yannis C. Yortsos

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Create Green Computing (e.g. Green Data Centers) Change Urban Paradigm Smart Urban Infrastructure (e.g. Smart/Green Buildings) Transform Energy Distribution and Usage (e.g. Smart Grid)

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Oil, gas, coal: Essentially biofuels, but with carbon captured millennia ago also non-renewable Oil and gas contain mostly CH x x~2 (oil, e.g. octane C 8 H 18 ), x~4 (gas, e.g. methane, CH 4 ) Liquid hydrocarbons contain largest energy/volume four times the (liquid) hydrogen equivalent Likely to remain a larger part of the portfolio of energy options (particularly transportation) ~ 85%

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Increase in both CO 2 atmospheric concentration and CO 2 emissions following the industrial revolution Current level 387 ppm

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*Overall CO 2 Contribution is 44%Energy the largest share of GHG emissions- mostly as CO 2

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Issues: Capture/Utilization: Transfer from an energy state (A) to a lower state (B) E.g. oxidation CH 4 + 2O 2 --> 2H 2 O + CO 2 (+ H) Storage (Internal- Batteries) H -----A Transmission (Power Grid) H ----B time Efficiency and kinetics (conversion losses) Second Law of Thermodynamics (Losses, e.g friction, in all Irreversible (non-equilibrium)Processes) 32

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Make Solar Energy Economical Provide Energy from Fusion Develop Carbon Sequestration Methods Manage the Nitrogen Cycle Provide Access to Clean Water Engineer Better Medicines Advance Health Informatics Reverse Engineer the Brain Secure Cyberspace Prevent Nuclear Terror Restore and Improve Urban Infrastructure Enhance Virtual Reality Advance Personalized Learning Engineer the Tools of Scientific Discovery Sustainability Health Vulnerability The joy of living Engineering + {} USC Summit on the NAE Grand Challenges in October 2010

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Courtesy of S. Prakash: From the Methanol Economy by Olah et al. Oil

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35 USC Testbed System architecture testbed (USC) Social and Behavioral analysis testbed (USC) Sensor networks and control systems testbed Cybersecurity testbed Third party vendor solutions testbeds Application and Data access platform testbed (USC) Electric Vehicles testbed

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SPORT Lab Reality: Todays Servers Are Not Energy-Proportional An energy-proportional server must have a power efficiency of more than 80 percent of its peak value for utilizations of 30 percent and above, with efficiency remaining above 50 percent for utilization levels as low as 10 percent. 36

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SPORT Lab 37 ERC Strategic Framework PI: Massoud Pedram Title: NSF ERC for Resilient, Manageable, and Sustainable Information and Communications Infrastructure (RMSI) Lead: University of Southern California

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Advanced heat pipe for passive heating and cooling Energy efficient solid state lighting Energy efficient building materials development Operational efficiency optimization, control, and demand response Software and sensor data information systems Integrative design, building life cycle, and sustainability Comparative sociological and behavioral study Outcome evaluations and education outreach US-China Center Proposal