CDC

Contents

4020114296772004-201122.59%

2004-200552006-2008420093

201062010-2020

2004GISHIVHIVGIS

Target 1Target 2 Target 3

1 2011 2 3 2011 GDPGDP 2011 MSMFSW

MapInfo 2011 1MapInfo 10.0 GIS 2GeoDa 1.46 3ArcGIS 10.0

1 Exploratory Spatial Data AnalysisESDA MoranG LISAG 2 SLMSEM

1 37150/10

292531.6033.8521.173.1120.89292513.3918.307.895.7868.63292517.0120.699.612.8111.10

2 2011Morann=2925

MoranE(I)Z-ScoreP0.5762-0.000351.66950.0010.4505-0.000338.43080.0010.6302-0.000356.47290.001

2 2011Gn=2925

GE(G)Z-ScoreP0.03310.025015.04460.0010.03520.025014.85460.0010.03700.025019.68690.001

3LISA

2011LISA 262689 2011LISA 704 273

3G

2011 511750/10

23438333331356

. . , 1999, 20(3): 138-140. Diktter F. Sexually transmitted diseases in modern China: a historical survey. Genitourin Med, 1993, 69:341-345.

3G

2011 3

1

TestDFvaluepMorans I(error)-0.0586--Lagrange Multiplier(lag)11.3623520.24313Robust LM(lag)10.903590.341821Lagrange Multiplier(error)10.4653520.495134Robust LM(error)10.0065890.935305Lagrange Multiplier(SARMA)21.3689410.504357

SLMSEM

2

TestDFvaluepMorans I(error)0.18869--Lagrange Multiplier(lag)182.567680.00001Robust LM(lag)121.491670.000004Lagrange Multiplier(error)162.560780.00001Robust LM(error)11.484780.223028Lagrange Multiplier(SARMA)284.052460.00001

SLMR=0.482635Log likelihood-1544.77AIC3129.54SC3206.41SLMSLM0.5530p0.0001

SLM SLM

TestDFvaluepLikelihood Ratio Test 0.188687 58.05463 0.000001

GDPMSMB1MSM6B2STDFSW

* GIS*