China automotive energy research center brief rr advisory committee ditan lab tsw on advisory committee

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CAERC Research Program Overview CAERC Research Program Overview

ZHANG Xiliang

China Automotive Energy Research Center

Tsinghua University

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中心成立中心成立中心成立中心成立Opening

Ceremony

April 19, 2008

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Mission

� To conduct multidisciplinary, systematic and in-depth

research in the field of automotive energy

� To create and widespread the knowledge for the

establishment of affordable, safe and environmentally

friendly automotive energy system in China and the world

� To assist Chinese Government in formulating sustainable

automotive strategies and policies

� To foster leaders for the Chinese sustainable automotive

energy system transformation.

4

Research Resources Research Resources

� Seven institutions associated within Tsinghua

- Institute of Energy and Environmental Economics

- Department of Automobile Engineering

- Department of Thermal Engineering

- Department of Electrical Engineering

- Department of Environment Science and Technology

- School of Economics and Management

- School of Public Policy and Management

� Thour external institutions associated

- Development Research Center of State Council

- Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, China Academy of Sciences

- China Automotive Technology And Research Center (CATARC)

- Energy Research Institute of National Development and Reform Commission

� Research staff and post doctoral fellows: 26 +

� Doctoral and master students: 16+

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Administrative Structure

� Steering Committee:

�studying and formulation of the research development plan of the CAERC

�review and approval of the annual working plans and budgets of the CAERC

�relationship coordination and gaining support from domestic and foreign resources to the CAERC, etc..

� The CAERC will establish an Advisory Board which shall provide consultation and guidance to the academic research of the Center

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Energy Supply ChainsEnergy Supply Chains

CAERC Research OverviewCAERC Research Overview

Research Lead Institute

Energy PathwaysSupply Chain Dimensions / Key Elements

Biomass Fuels

Coal-based fuels

Oil/Gas Hydrocarbons

Electricity Hydrogen

Resources, Production and current/future uses

Conv ersion technologies (incl. cost, energy, water, CO2)

Inf rastructure: Physical supply chain

Economics / Cost / Price

Inv estors / Commercial interests / Stakeholders

Supply chain system interactions with others and water

Policy drivers/considerations (incl. impact analysis)

IntegratedIntegrated

AutomotiveAutomotive

EnergyEnergy

RoadmapRoadmap& Policies& Policies

Integrated AssessmentsIntegrated Assessments

Energy DemandEnergy Demand

Energy Demand Lead

Overview of China energy demand scenarios

China v ehicle and automotive energy demand growth

Fuel characteristics f or optimal match to propulsion system

Key aspects of integrated assessments Lead

Energy f uture scenarios from system modeling (implications of

different technology dev elopments, policies, disruptions)

Well-to-wheels energy pathway assessments /

Policy drivers/considerations (incl. impact of current/planned)

Societal drivers/considerations (urbanization, regional div ersity,

env. quality, transportation inf rastructure)

Develop integrated

framework and metrics for

assessment of future scenarios

Provide landmark

and ongoing energy

and policy/regulation

analysis

Report

Report

Report

Legend

Prof Wang

Prof Zhang

Prof Li

Prof Ouyang

DRC

External

Deliverables • Demand scenarios:

• Bio-fuel roadmap;

• Coal-derived fuels roadmap:

• Electricity supply and transmission outlook

• Hydrogen roadmap

• Oil and natural gas roadmap

• Integrated automotive energy strategy

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Research Project TimelineResearch Project Timeline

Projects 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Biofuel Roadmap

Coal-derived Fuels

Roadmap

Oil and N. Gas

Roadmap

Electricity Roadmap

Hydrogen Roadmap

Vehicle and Energy Demand

Integrated Automotive Energy Roadmap

Report for release

The Policy Team will use the CAERC’s ongoing research deliverables to inform & refine policy implications and position statements

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China’s coal flow in 2006

�Power gen.(47%), industry(21%) and coking(19%) are Top-3 coal consumers in China

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China’s Crude Oil flow in 2005

炼油炼油炼油炼油 refinery290.04

自产自产自产自产 domestic181.35

进口进口进口进口 import

118.75

库存库存库存库存 inventory0.79

原油原油原油原油 crude oil

total=300.89

炼油产品炼油产品炼油产品炼油产品 refinery prod.276.69

油品油品油品油品 oil product Total=197.12

汽油汽油汽油汽油 gasoline 55.96柴油柴油柴油柴油 diesel 113.12燃料油燃料油燃料油燃料油 fuel oil 17.67

其他产品其他产品其他产品其他产品 other products

total=79.57液化气液化气液化气液化气 LPG 17.19炼厂气炼厂气炼厂气炼厂气 gas 10.05

其它其它其它其它 other 52.34

成品油进口成品油进口成品油进口成品油进口 oil prod. Import total=30.01

汽油汽油汽油汽油 gasoline 3.38柴油柴油柴油柴油 diesel 0.54

燃料油燃料油燃料油燃料油 fuel oil 26.09

成品油成品油成品油成品油 Oil prod.

total=227.13

+

交通交通交通交通transportation total=149.06Share=45%

+ 总石油消费总石油消费总石油消费总石油消费Oil consumption

total=330.9

炼油炼油炼油炼油 refinery290.04



118.75



total=300.89



118.75



total=300.89




















total=227.13


total=227.13

+

交通交通交通交通transportation total=149.06Share=45%

+ 总石油消费总石油消费总石油消费总石油消费Oil consumption

total=330.9

总石油消费总石油消费总石油消费总石油消费Oil consumption

total=330.9

Unit: Mtoe

Copyright © Tsinghua-BP Clean Energy Research and Education Center

Source: adopted from China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2006

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China’s Natural Gas flow in 2006

�Nearly 75% of the total demand is from industry (mainly for the raw chemical materials and

chemical products)

11267.2494.6130.7521.44Passenger car population乘用车保有量（million）

183.0467.7223.216.4Passenger car ownership 乘用车保有率（/1k）

312.85132.0653.4831.60Vehicle Population 汽车保有量（Million）

214.2894.5340.224.2Vehicle Ownership保有率（/1k person）

2030202020102005Year

Predict results of BAU Scenario

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20202010

0.005

0.005

0.05

Car

0.01

0.08

0.03

Bus

0.0010.10.050.00005FCV

0.0080.030.040.0005BEV

0.050.510.005HEV

TruckBusCar Truck

Penetration of technologies （（（（%））））

Technologies and fuels assumption of BAU Scenario

15

15

6

2

62

Mini

5

5

2

1

87

Mini

15

15

6

29

35

Middle

20202010

1515555LPG

1515555CNG

66222Ethanol

2864304883Diesel

36058405Gasoline

smalllargesmallMiddle large

Penetration of car fuels（（（（%））））

4

4

3

8.8

80.2

Mini

1

1

0.8

4.4

92.8

Mini

4

4

3

69

20

Middle

20202010

44111LPG

44111CNG

330.80.80.8Ethanol

68.88964.467.296.2Diesel

20.2032.8301Gasoline

lightlargelightMiddle large

104LPG

104CNG

62Ethanol

1210Diesel

6280Gasoline

2020 2010

Penetration of Buses fuels（（（（%））））

Penetration of Trucks fuels（（（（%））））

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Energy demands and GHG emission (BAU)

汽车能源需求和温室气体排放汽车能源需求和温室气体排放汽车能源需求和温室气体排放汽车能源需求和温室气体排放

（million ton gasoline equivalent ）

Energy Demands (million tons)

GHG emission (million tons)

（million ton CO2 equivalent ）

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Biomass-Supply Balance Table: Forest Residues 108 tons

0.15——0.010.04——————0.1Others

1.230.20.0840.40.20.2500.096

Biomass practical accessibility

0.23——0.050.1——————0.08Wood pulp

production

0.62——0.260.21——————0.15Board

production

0.06——————————0.06——charcoal

production

0.86————0.46————0.240.16Direct

combustion

3.150.20.4041.210.20.250.30.586

Biomass technical accessibility

4.2550.40.0362.420.10.8750.060.364Loss during

collection

2.025————1.21——0.3750.120.32Returns for the

field

9.430.60.444.840.31.50.481.27Biomass availability

0——————————————Export

0.18——0.18——————————Import

9.250.60.264.840.31.50.481.27Indigenous

generation

Generation

Collection

Consumption

OthersUrban pruning residues

Bush residues

Fuelwood

logging &

bucking

residues

TotalTertiary Forest Industry

Secondary Forest Industry

Primary Forest Industry

Item

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Forest Residue Flow

Copyright: Biofuel Group, CAERC, Tsinghua University

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Market potential: Biofuel in Transport Energy Supply

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

百百百百百百百百百百百百百百百百标标标标

Mtoe

石百 Fos sil Gasoline & Diesel 天天天 Natural Gas 煤煤煤煤 Coal-to-liquid 生生煤煤 Bio fuels 其其其其煤煤 Others

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Economic Potential of Biofuels

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


Mtoe

生生生百 1st Biodiesel 生生生生百 2nd Syn-Biofuels 煤煤燃燃 1st Bioethanol 素燃燃纤纤 2nd Bioethanol 生生生生天 SNG

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


Mtoe

生生生百 1 st Biod iese l 生生生生百 2n d Sy n-Bio fue ls 煤煤燃燃 1 st Bioe tha no l 素燃燃纤纤 2n d Bio eth an ol

生生生生天 SNG 生生质质质 Bioe le ctricity 生生生氢 Bio hy d rog en

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


Mtoe

一其生生煤煤 1s t Biofuels 二其生生煤煤 2nd Biofue ls

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Economic potential: Biofuels in Transport Energy Supply

0

100

200

300

400

500

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050


Mtoe

石百 Foss il Gaso line & Diesel 天天天 Natural Gas 煤煤煤煤 Coal-to -liqu id 生生煤煤 Biofuels 其其其其煤煤 Others

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Final Energy Demand Scenario

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mtce

Coal Oil Electricity Gas Heat

Source: Tsinghua University ALTENERGY Model output.

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

亿吨标煤

亿吨标煤

亿吨标煤

亿吨标煤 100 Mtce

Other RE

Biomass

Solar

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

NG

Oil

Coal

Reference Scenario

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CO2 Emission Constraint Scenario

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

亿吨标煤

亿吨标煤

亿吨标煤

亿吨标煤 100 Mtce

Other RE

Biomass

Solar

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

NG

Oil

Coal

22

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

亿吨标煤

亿吨标煤

亿吨标煤

亿吨标煤

100 Mtce

Other RE

Biomass

Solar

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

NG

Oil

Coal

Dual Constraints Scenario

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Energy Costs for Energy System Transformation

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

$ / tce

Dual Constraints CO2 Emission Constraint Reference

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Some Important EventsSome Important Events

� March 4 ----- 1st Steering Committee’s meeting

� April 19 ----- Opening of CAERC

� May 19 ----- GM VP Kenneth W. Cole visited CAERC

� May 21 ----- US delegation from Department of Treasure and Department of Energy visited CAERC

� May 22 ----- US-China Ten Year Energy and Environment Cooperation Framework “Clean and Efficient Transportation”Taskforce Brainstorm Organized by CAERCOrganized by CAERC

� June 27 ----- Professor Jiankun HE, Chair of CAERC Steering Committee, gave a lecture on climate change for the top Chinese leaders

� September 24 – October 9 ----- Study tour of CAERC researchers in USA

� October 15 ---- Sandia National Lab VP and CTO visiting CAERC

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US Delegation from Department of Treasure and Department of US Delegation from Department of Treasure and Department of

Energy visited CAERC on May 21, 2008Energy visited CAERC on May 21, 2008

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USUS--China Strategic Economic Dialogue's Ten Year China Strategic Economic Dialogue's Ten Year

Energy and Environment Cooperation Framework Energy and Environment Cooperation Framework

““Clean and Efficient TransportationClean and Efficient Transportation”” Taskforce Taskforce

Brainstorm on May 22, 2008Brainstorm on May 22, 2008

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Thank youThank you