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Dynamic pricing: news from the era of Big Data Egidijus Pilypas [email protected]

Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

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Page 1: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Dynamic pricing:

news from the era of Big Data

Egidijus Pilypas

[email protected]

Page 2: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Exacaster is a Big Data Analytics technology company

founded in 2011 by ex-telco marketers.

Customer Analytics

Predictive Modeling

Campaign

Management

Focus on the right

customers,

right offer, right time.

Contextual Marketing

About Us

Our mission is to automate middle management decisions with advanced

machine-learning tools, focusing on key loyalty and marketing challenges

including segmentation, churn, up-sell, loyalty programs, product

recommendations and pricing optimization.

Page 3: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Our expertise

1. Exacaster was the first company which started

using Big Data infrastructure Hadoop in a

production environment in Baltics region.

Page 4: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Our expertise

1. Exacaster was the first company which started using

Big Data infrastructure Hadoop in a production

environment in Baltics region.

2. In the last 2.5 years Exacaster invested more than

600k EUR to RnD activities in the areas of:

a. Advanced analytics;

b. Machine learning;

c. Recommendations and targeting algorithms;

d. Real time dynamic pricing;

Page 5: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Our expertise

1. Exacaster was the first company which started using

Big Data infrastructure Hadoop in a production

environment in Baltics region.

2. In the last 2.5 years Exacaster invested more than

600k EUR to RnD activities in the areas of:

a. Advanced analytics;

b. Machine learning;

c. Recommendations and targeting algorithms;

d. Real time dynamic pricing;

3. We did enormous educational work in Telco & Retail

industries, and we are establishing a “Deep Learning

Academy” – an open data science school for

professional education.

Page 6: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Our expertise

1. Exacaster was the first company which started using

Big Data infrastructure Hadoop in a production

environment in Baltics region.

2. In the last 2.5 years Exacaster invested more than

600k EUR to RnD activities in the areas of:

a. Advanced analytics;

b. Machine learning;

c. Recommendations and targeting algorithms;

d. Real time dynamic pricing;

3. We did enormous educational work in Telco & Retail

industries, and we are establishing a “Deep Learning

Academy” – an open data science school for

professional education.

4. Exacaster was recognized as the most advanced

high-tech services business in the Lithuania, winning

the Knowledge Economy Company 2014 award.

Exacaster - Knowledge Economy Company 2014

Page 7: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Our customers

Large Scandinavian grocery

retail chain

International online

advertizing company

Medium size daily

deals portal

Large Latin American

Mobile Operator

Page 8: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

8 most common pricing

mistakes

Page 9: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

8 most common pricing

mistakes

Basing prices

on costs, not

customers’

perceptions of

value

Page 10: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

8 most common pricing

mistakes

Basing prices

on costs, not

customers’

perceptions of

value

Basing prices

on “the

marketplace”

Page 11: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

8 most common pricing

mistakes

Basing prices

on costs, not

customers’

perceptions of

value

Basing prices

on “the

marketplace”

Same profit

margin across

different product

lines.

Page 12: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

8 most common pricing

mistakes

Basing prices

on costs, not

customers’

perceptions of

value

Basing prices

on “the

marketplace”

Same profit

margin across

different product

lines.

Companies fail

to segment their

customers.

Page 13: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

8 most common pricing

mistakes

Basing prices

on costs, not

customers’

perceptions of

value

Basing prices

on “the

marketplace”

Same profit

margin across

different product

lines.

Companies fail

to segment their

customers.

Companies

hold prices at

the same level

for too long.

Page 14: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

8 most common pricing

mistakes

Basing prices

on costs, not

customers’

perceptions of

value

Basing prices

on “the

marketplace”

Same profit

margin across

different product

lines.

Companies fail

to segment their

customers.

Companies

hold prices at

the same level

for too long.

Companies

spend

insufficient

resources

managing their

pricing

practices.

Page 15: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

8 most common pricing

mistakes

Basing prices

on costs, not

customers’

perceptions of

value

Basing prices

on “the

marketplace”

Same profit

margin across

different product

lines.

Companies fail

to segment their

customers.

Companies

hold prices at

the same level

for too long.

Companies

spend

insufficient

resources

managing their

pricing

practices.

Companies fail

to establish

internal

procedures to

optimize prices.

Page 16: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

8 most common pricing

mistakes

Basing prices

on costs, not

customers’

perceptions of

value

Basing prices

on “the

marketplace”

Same profit

margin across

different product

lines.

Companies fail

to segment their

customers.

Companies

hold prices at

the same level

for too long.

Companies

spend

insufficient

resources

managing their

pricing

practices.

Companies fail

to establish

internal

procedures to

optimize prices.

Companies rely

on salespeople

and other

customer-facing

staff for pricing

intelligence.

Page 17: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Fixing mistakes

Chuck Norris/Big Data

way

Page 18: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Dynamic Pricing Based on

Market price

Page 19: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Dynamic Pricing Based on

Market price

5 strategies

I don’t care about market price

Page 20: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Price leader

Dynamic Pricing Based on

Market price

5 strategies

I don’t care about market price

Page 21: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Price leader

Dynamic Pricing Based on

Market price

5 strategies

I don’t care about market price

Page 22: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Price leader

Dynamic Pricing Based on

Market price

Price follower

5 strategies

I don’t care about market price

Page 23: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Price leader

Dynamic Pricing Based on

Market price

Price follower

Price looser

5 strategies

I don’t care about market price

Page 24: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Price leader

Dynamic Pricing Based on

Market price

Price follower

Price looser

Intelligent mix

of leader,

looser &

follower

5 strategies

I don’t care about market price

Page 25: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Price leader

Dynamic Pricing Based on

Market price

Price follower

Price looser

Intelligent mix

of leader,

looser &

follower

5 strategies

I don’t care about market price

Page 26: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Amazon

changes its

prices more

than 2.5

million times a

day

Market price leader - Amazon

Page 27: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Amazon

changes its

prices more

than 2.5

million times a

day

Market price leader - Amazon

“Gravity Fuels Gravity”, Jeff Bezos.

Page 28: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Market price wars leader – Diapers

Page 29: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Market price wars leader – Diapers

Amazon lost competition with Diapers.com and

bought them for $540 m. in 2010.

Page 30: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Market price wars leader – Diapers

Amazon lost competition with Diapers.com and

bought them for $540 m. in 2010.

Key success drivers:

• Fast moving items – margin ~0.

Page 31: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Market price wars leader – Diapers

Amazon lost competition with Diapers.com and

bought them for $540 m. in 2010.

Key success drivers:

• Fast moving items – margin ~0.

• Associated and slow items – margin as high as possible.

Page 32: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Market price wars leader – Diapers

Amazon lost competition with Diapers.com and

bought them for $540 m. in 2010.

Key success drivers:

• Fast moving items – margin ~0.

• Associated and slow items – margin as high as possible.

• Delivery next day 7 days a week.

• Awesome customer service

Page 33: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Technical implementation building

blocks used by Diapers

1. Competitor prices tracking for fast moving items;

2. Recommendations engine for long tail items;

3. Real time dynamic price optimization for all items;

Key takeaways

1. Don’t compete on the price, unless your are Amazon.

2. If must compete on price – do it only on the items that

drive key traffic.

3. Keep slow moving items margin as high as possible;

4. Figure out competitive advantages that are not related to

the price;

Page 34: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Dynamic Pricing Based on

Customers’ Perceptions of Value

How much should I

charge for products that

are incomparable in the

market?

Set a random

price?

Do a market

research?

Negotiate with

customers?

Apply machine

learning?

Page 35: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

15.99 €

How much should an awesome

45 min. massage cost?Common answer:

Well, maybe…

Example from daily deals portal

Page 36: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

15.99 € 19.99 €

How much should an awesome

45 min. massage cost?Moderate analysts’ answer:

Let’s do A/B testing

Example from daily deals portal

Page 37: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

10.99 €

How much should an awesome

45 min. massage cost?Exacaster answer:

Automated Machine Learning Algorithms

17.89 €19.99 €

20.79 €22.99 €12.00 €

15.99 €

Example from daily deals portal

Page 38: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Results form our beta testers -

GROUPON a like daily deals site:

Machine learning algorithms

autmatically spotted prices that on

average brought

7% bigger total margin compared to manual price selection

Page 39: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Technical implementation building blocks

Real time dynamic price optimization for all items;

Key takeaways

If there is nobody to compare, set your own prices

based on EXTENSIVE TESTS, not on COSTS

Page 40: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Dynamic Pricing Based on

Product bundles

Page 41: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Dynamic Pricing Based on

Product bundles

Page 42: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Dynamic Pricing Based on

Product bundles

$99.99

Page 43: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Dynamic Pricing Based on

Product bundles

$99.99

Page 44: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Dynamic Pricing Based on

Product bundles

Make her an

offer she can’t

refuse.

$99.99

Page 45: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Dynamic Pricing Based on

Product bundles

Make her an

offer she can’t

refuse.

$99.99A special deal for

your basket only:

Best in class Apple

mouse just for

$69.99

Page 46: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

1. Recommendations engine;

2. Real time dynamic price optimization;

Technical implementation building blocks

Never miss a chance to up-sell on the very right

moment with the offer customer can’t refuse.

Key takeaways

Page 47: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Dynamic Pricing Based on

Revenue Management

Good Revenue Management

is selling the right product to

the right customer at the

right time for the right

price and with the right

pack.

Revenue Management

inventors and leaders:

1. Airlines

2. Hotels

3. Car Rentals

4. Show tickets

5. Fashion industry

Page 48: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Revenue Management in Airlines

Time before departure

6 m. 4 m. 2 m. 1 m. 1 w.

Price per

seat in $

Page 49: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Revenue Management in Airlines

Time before departure

6 m. 4 m. 2 m. 1 m. 1 w.

Price per

seat in $

Price sensitive

customers segment

Page 50: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Revenue Management in Airlines

Time before departure

6 m. 4 m. 2 m. 1 m. 1 w.

Price per

seat in $

Price sensitive

customers segment

Regular customers

segment

Page 51: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Revenue Management in Airlines

Time before departure

6 m. 4 m. 2 m. 1 m. 1 w.

Price per

seat in $

Price sensitive

customers segment

Regular customers

segment

Business customers

segment

Page 52: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Revenue Management in Fashion

industry

Time after new collection introduction

1 w. 1 m. 2 m. 3 m.

Price per

item in $

Page 53: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Revenue Management in Fashion

industry

Time after new collection introduction

1 w. 1 m. 2 m. 3 m.

Price per

item in $

Fashion

fans

Page 54: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Revenue Management in Fashion

industry

Time after new collection introduction

1 w. 1 m. 2 m. 3 m.

Price per

item in $

Fashion

fans

Regular

customers

Page 55: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Revenue Management in Fashion

industry

Time after new collection introduction

1 w. 1 m. 2 m. 3 m.

Price per

item in $

Fashion

fans

Regular

customers

Price sensitive

customers

Page 56: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

1. Historical data analysis;

2. Real time price optimization;

Technical implementation building blocks

1. CUSTOMERS ARE DIFFERENT;

2. Segment your customer base and adjust prices and

value proposition accordingly;

Key takeaways

Page 57: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

Dynamic Pricing Based on

Category Price Elasticity

Price per product

Quantity

of pro

duct

bou

ght

We can accurately

predict the quantity of

products bought

knowing only 1 thing –

it’s price.

Page 58: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

1. Historical data analysis;

Technical implementation building blocks

1. Evaluate each products’ price range, you might be

missing a huge revenue opportunity;

Key takeaways

Page 59: Dinamiska cenu noteikšana: jaunumi Big Data laikmetā, Egidijus Pilypas, Exacaster

We are searching for partners who would like to participate in our

Closed Beta testing program to share our expertise and to help you

run pricing strategies in a better way.

Egidijus Pilypas

Chief Data Scientist

[email protected]

Should you have any

questions, please

kindly get in touch:

exacaster.com