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Q1 2014 Коммерческая недвижимость России. Презентация [RUS]
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ОБЗОР РЫНКА КОММЕРЧЕСКОЙ НЕДВИЖИМОСТИ РОССИИ 1 КВ 2014
Q1 2014 Коммерческая недвижимость России. Презентация [RUS]
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Коммерческая недвижимость. Офисы, Торговая, складская
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1. 1 2014
2. 2014 1,1% 8% 0,5%
3. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 2 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014 7.2% 6.4% 8.2%
8.5% 5.2% -7.8% 4.5% 4.3% 3.4% 1.3% 1.1% 1.3% 2004 2005 2006 2007
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 F2014F2015 2013 . 1,1% . , 2%, 3%.
1.1% 0.4% -15%
4. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 3 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
10% 12% 14% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 F2014
, , . 24%. .
5. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 4 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014 6.2% 10.2% 4.8%
7.0% 14.3% 10.9% 13.7% 20.2% 14.1% -7.4% 8.4% 9.6% 5.7% 3.9% 0.5%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2013 F2014 $ 850 $1,0002.7 75.2 4.2 5.6% $5,500
6. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 5 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014 - . 2014 . 2014
, , - . : World Bank
7. 2013 US$ 8.5 2014 US$ 5.0
8. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 7 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014 5 USD 2014 1
2014 1,05 . 4 , , 4,5 . . 2010 .
9. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 8 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014 0.5 8.75%
(+0.25 ) 9.25% (+0.25 ) 11.0% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 2004 2005
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 2014 CBRKey Rate (after
2013) Office PRIME Shopping center PRIME W&I PRIME
10. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 9 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014 0 500 1 000 1
500 2 000 2 500 3 000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 2014Moscow S.
Peterburg Other 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 2009 2010
2011 2012 2013 Q1 2014Moscow S. Peterburg Other 0 500 1 000 1 500
2010 2011 2012 2013 Moscow S. Peterburg Other 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8
000 10 000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 2014Foreign Domestic n/a - .
. .
11. 2014 490 . . 1,41 . . ( 50 ) () USD 4 000 * * .
12. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 11 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014 Fashion 20
Children goods 4 Consumer electronics 1 Sport goods 7 Footwear 2 1.
2014 2012-2013 , Finn Flare, , , , . . . . -
13. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 12 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014 Fashion 20
Children goods 4 Sport goods 7 Footwear 2 Variety store 3 5,3 . 126
.35 1,8 2014 9 50 1 . 2014
14. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 13 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014 : (000 .)
2014 * . LOCATION PROPERTY NAME RETAIL GLA, SQ M DELIVERY
Ekaterinburg Greenvich (phases IV and V) 84,000 Q1 2014
Novokuznetsk City Mall 63,000 Q1 2014 Reutov Reutov Park 42,600 Q1
2014 Murmansk Severnoe Nagornoe (2 phase) 30,000 Q1 2014 St.
Petersburg Zanevskiy kaskad (3 phase) 24,440 Q1 2014 Ivanovo Topol'
(2 phase) 21,000 Q1 2014 Orsk Evropeiskiy 13,563 Q1 2014 Irkutsk
KomsoMall 47,700 Q2 2014 Mytischi Krasny Kit (II phase) 47,000 Q2
2014 Orenburg KIT 45,966 Q2 2014 Perm Speshilova SC 75,000 Q2 2014
Samara Ambar 90,000 Q2 2014 Ufa Arkada 45,000 Q2 2014 Barnaul Arena
75,000 Q3 2014 Ekaterinburg Globus (II phase) 55,500 Q3 2014
Murmansk Murmansk Mall (II phase) 45,000 Q3 2014 Nizhnyi Novgorod
Nebo 69,650 Q3 2014 Saratov June 40,600 Q3 2014 St. Petersburg
Evropolis 60,439 Q3 2014 Sterlitamak Fabri (II phase) 42,000 Q3
2014 Bryansk Sayani Park 76,000 Q4 2014 Irkutsk Fortuna City Mall
92,000 Q4 2014 Irkutsk Silver Mall 53,000 Q4 2014 Kursk Renaissanse
Park 45,000 Q4 2014 Novokuznetsk Planeta 73,000 Q4 2014 Novosibirsk
Galereya Novosibirsk 52,500 Q4 2014 Smolensk Maxi 47,500 Q4 2014
Total GLA Russia without Moscow 2,520,527 2014 50 1,9 . .). I .
2014 9 354 383 .. ( , ). -, , . 1,828 1,620 1,895 1,561 1,635 1,426
1,872 1,696 354 1,900 3,200 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2014 CW
15. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 14 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014 337 219 379
567 400 197 152 231 76 480 812 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2013 2014 CW : 2014 PROPERTY NAME RETAIL GLA, SQ M YEAR DELIVERY
Projects with GLA 15,000 + sq m Goodzone 56,000 2014 Q1
Moskvorechye 19,780 2014 Q1 Vesna! 56,000 2014 Q2 Vegas Crocus City
94,975 2014 Q2 Mozaika 67,000 2014 Q2 Brateevo Mall 15,000 2014 Q2
Kuntsevo Plaza 63,000 2014 Q3 Vodniy 32,500 2014 Q3 Aviapark
235,000 2014 Q4 RIO Kievskoe highway 40,300 2014 Q4 Detsky Mir
34,000 2014 Q4 Kotelniki-Expo 18,000 2014 Q4 Smolensky Passage -
phase 2 16,000 2014 Q4 Total GLA Moscow 2014 812,068 1 2015 2 (GLA
56 000 .) (GLA 19 780 .). (GLA 42 600 .). - 3%. 1,2 . . , 2014-2015
: , (GLA 235 000 . ), Columbus (GLA 140 000 . ), Vegas Crocus City
(GLA 95 000 . ), River Mall (GLA 91 200 . ), (GLA 67 000 . ). (000
.)
16. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 15 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014
17. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 16 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014 + + 0.0 0.5
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0% 1%
1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Q1 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Cushman&Wakefield 9 GLA 0,5 ..
.
18. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 17 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014 500 600 700
800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2012 2013 2014 Average Minimum - , . . , . , , , 1000 .
19. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 18 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014 , 1 . 2014 *
USD 4 000 * .. , triple net * 100-200 . , .. , *, $ 4,000 2%-15%
$150-$250 $15-$25 3,000 3,125 3,750 2,500 2,600 3,600 3,800 4,000
4,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
20. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 19 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014 $0 $500 $1
000 $1 500 $2 000 $2 500 $3 000 $3 500 50 50-100 100-200 200-300
300-500 500-700 700-900 900-1000 1000-1200 1200-2000 2000-3500
Min.Rentalrate,USD/sq.m Size of block, square meters Accessories
and jewellery/ Amusement and recreation / Children goods / Fashion/
Cosmetics / Electronics / Food / Household goods / Lingerie/ Sports
/
21. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 20 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014 0% 10% 20%
30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Petrovka-Kusnetsky Most
Nikol'skaya Tverskaya Pyatnitskaya Pokrovka-Maroseyka Total Food /
Restaurants / Cafes Fashion and footware Services Bank / Exchange
Accessories / Optics / Watches Jewelry Cosmetics / Pharmacy /
Perfumery Other CATEGORY % Food / Restaurants / Cafes 32% Fashion
and footware 19% Services 14% Bank / Exchange 7% Accessories /
Optics / Watches 5% Jewelry 5% Cosmetics / Pharmacy / Perfumery 5%
Other 13% Vacant or non-operationable 4% GRAND TOTAL 100% . , , , ,
. . . (, , ..) .
22. 1 2014 13,96 . 209 000 . 290 000 . 12,7% 800 . ,
23. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 22 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014 ( ), . . *
Pre-lease deal the deal for a space to be delivered 60 days or more
after the deal date 1 2014 ( ) 29% 2013 , 290 . . . , . 2013 2,3% .
80% 83% 75% 86% 86% 79% 80% 86% 74% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
80% 90% 100% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2011 2012 2013 F2014 (B+ B-) , , (B+ B-) , . 17,370 Comcity -
PepsiCo 13,009 Alcon Shtokman 4,748 Fusion Park 3,954 Wall Street
Eli LillyVostok S.A. 2,336 Naberezhnaya Tower avito.ru 2,200 White
Gardens ITT 1 . 2014, 2 000+ .
24. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 23 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014 1 . 2014 (477
Cushman&Wakefield) , : 55 000 .. , , . , , 2013 ( ). ( . ) 1.50
2.11 1.29 0.91 0.65 0.57 0.89 0.21 1.14 1.76 0.59 1.10 0.76 0.39
0.68 -0.06 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1 .2014 75.9% 104.2%
80.7% 84.5% 40.8% 20.6% 43.0% -19.3% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2013 1 .2014 (%) . : X-Y = X = ( ) Y = ( )
25. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 24 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014 2013 13,96 .
. 1 2014 209 000 . 12 . (86 834 .) . ( 22,7% 38.1%). 40% , , II .
500 000 . 2014 ( Cushman&Wakefield). ( 90% ). (. . ) 0 500 1000
1500 2000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 F2014 (B+ B-) , ,
(B+ B-)
26. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 25 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014 1, 76 . . 569
1,70 . . , . 0,5 12,7%. 1.62 1.27 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1 . 2014 . ( ) 4.2% 4.5% 12.1%
21.5% 20.8% 15.7% 14.4% 17.9% 23.7% 2.7% 4.1% 6.0% 11.1% 10.9% 9.4%
9.6% 10.2% 11.4% 1 .- 20.9% 1 .- 10.6% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2011 2012 2013 F2014 (B+ B-)
27. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 26 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014 0 500 000 1
000 000 1 500 000 2 000 000 2 500 000 A A
28. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 27 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014
$100$300$500$700$900$1100$1300 0 5 10 15 20 25
RentalrateUSD/sq.m(3yearaverage) Distance from city center, km
OFFICE MARKET AND PREMIUMS
29. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 28 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014 1 , . 877 (4
. 2013) 796 , 575 (4 . 2013 ) 535 . ( ). , 2014 . * ( ) * . 711 935
1088 731 645 734 796 870 800 529 646 807 509 414 444 466 530 500 1
.2014: 796 1 .2014:535 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
F2014 (B+ B-)
30. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 29 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014
31. 1 . 2014 240,000 . 72,000 . $130 .
32. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 31 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014 . ( A B, ..)
1. 2014 : 240 000 . ( A) 2.0% 2014 (): 1 200 000 . I . 2014 240 . .
. PNK (55 320 .). 2014 1,2 . . . ( 400 . . ), ( 350 . . ) ( 250 . .
) . 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 2007 2008 2009 2010
2011 2012 2013 2014F
33. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 32 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014 * . ( , ). I
. 2014 * $130 $135. 1 . . , . , * $130 $135 $125 $130. B, , . $60
$70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2014F - -- City Avg leased area, sq m min max $ 130 $ 135
10,000-15,000 - $ 130 $ 135 2,000-10,000 $ 125 $ 130 5,000-10,000 $
120 $ 125 3,000-5,000 $ 110 $ 115 3,000-5,000 $ 90 $ 100
3,000-5,000 -- $ 120 $ 125 3,000-5,000 $ 120 $ 125 3,000-5,000 $
110 $ 125 2,000-5,000 $ 120 $ 125 3,000-5,000 Avg base rental
rates, USD / annum
34. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 33 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014 (..) 1. 2014
: 112 000 . : 100 000 . 2014 : 1 000 000 . : 400 000 . I . 2014 112
. . , . , . , 1 . 2014 100 . . , . 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1
400 1 600 1 800 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F
35. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 34 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014 ( ) . 39% 30%
14% 25% 3% 10% 22% 16% 22% 19% 2012 2013 29% 59% 31% 15% 2% 1% 5%
12%32% 13% 2012 2013
36. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 35 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014 . ( A) 0 2
000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 2012 2013 2014F - 1.1% - - 1% .
- 1.2% - 1.5% - 2.2% - 3.1% -0.6% - 5.7% .- - 13.8% 66% 3.7%
37. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 36 MARKETBEAT Q1 2014
38. www.cushmanwakefield.com www.marketbeat.ru RESEARCH
DEPARTMENT Moscow [email protected]
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