Foresight for thorkorsor

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eyes on tomorrow...

APEC Center for Technology Foresight

1998 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)

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APEC Member EconomiesAPEC Official Observers Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretariat Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC) Pacific Islands Forum (PIF)

2008 APEC Secretariat

Mission of APEC CTF

RESEARCH: APEC-wide Foresight Studies

7 Projects finished since 1998, focusing on high impact area such as water, education, nanotechnology and energy

Mostly funded by both NSTDA and APEC

Methodologies include Delphi, Scenarios, and TRM

CONSULTING: for Public and Private Sectors

TRAINING: Seminars and Workshops (2-3 times a year)

Conference on Foresight and Emerging Technologies

Towards Best Practice in Technology Foresight

We are a group of practitioners (e.g. SWOT is given a bad name because mostly it fails in practice

Our strength is management skillWe train people

CDG case is our return customer

Our Customers

Siam Cement Group, Premier Group, CDG Group, Ministry of Public Health, SCI Research and Innovation Co.,Ltd., CAT Telecom Pubic Company Limited, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, Department of Agriculture, Institute of Solar Energy Technology Development, Petroleum Institute of Thailand, TRIDI, KNIT, , , TPA, SIRIM, NISTPASS, and many others.

Policy developmentParallell activities:Intelligent benchmarking etc.Future options:Foresight etc.Past experience:Impact analysis,History etc.Current context:Policy analysis,structure and dynamicsModes of Strategic Policy Learning(partly based on Ken Guy, 2006)The role of foresight:Foresight is about creating insights, not information. A tool for policy learning.Strong overlap/synergy with other modes of policy learning.

FuturesStudies

Strategic Planning

Policy DevelopmentForesightThe Foundations of ForesightSource: APEC Center for Technology Foresight

What's the difference?

The Johari Window

KNOWN KNOWNSUNKNOWN KNOWNSKNOWN UNKNOWNSUNKNOWN UNKNOWNSKnowledgemanagementenvironmentscanningtrendsimagination

Strategic planning

ForesightThis chart explains how foresight is different from conventional strategic planning

Global Strategic Trends

Source: Global Strategic Trends Out to 2040, Ministry of Defence UK (2010)

APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org

100

90

60

30

25

10

5

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Alvin and Heidi Toffler, Revolutionary Wealth (2006)

Alvin and Heidi Toffler Revolutionary Wealth

Toffler (fit) Toffler (intangible economy) 60 100 [1]
[1]

Source: Picture of the Future, Siemens (2005)

Its 2020, and India has been spectacularlysuccessful in improving the quality of its watertreatment systems. The Ganges, Indias sacredriver, has benefited from this progress astwo students from England discover...

what might happen need to understand this

your vision need to create this

Effect of uncertainty on objectivesISO 31000:2009- Perception that something could happen.- Likelihood of something happening.- Consequences if it does happen.RISK

Image from Ralph Dunham (2009), Marsh Risk Consulting 9/11 $147 2009

Economic Risks

Food & Fuel Security

(plausible) (expected) (preferred)

(uncertainties)

(scenario)

Technology Promotion Association (Thailand-Japan)Established in 1973 by a group of alumni from Japan

Trained over 350,000 persons in industrial technology

Over 100,000 persons in languages

Over 1,000 persons in enterprise diagnosis

Published over 830 titles and sold

over 4.5 million copiesServices over 2,000 companies

a year

Three ScenariosTPA Corp.Concentrate on profit making activities, RBM, CEO, less synergyValue of Non-Profit Organization (NPO)From association to foundation, new dimension for learning, synergy and teamwork, Prime Ministers Price in International Cooperation for NPONew SynergyCompetition from universities, synergy spear-headed by consultancy, practical solution provider, expansion of service to provinces, closer relationship with China

Two Policy IssuesCan TPA survive if Japan cuts off its financial support?

Should TPA become a private company since some of its operations are making profit?

Changes in Three YearsLibrary@Company: TPA library management software in 100 companies

E-commerce: book selling and training management

HRM Package with e-learning: implemented

Marketing programme: expand customer base, survey corporate image

http://km.tpa.or.th: for internal knowledge sharing

BELIEF as corporate identity

SurprisesThailand-Japan Institute of Technology: with an investment of US$ 10 million. The Institute took in the first batch of bachelor and master students in 2007

E-learning: did not take off

DiscussionsWhy TPA has been successful in implementing the outcomes of foresight?Its leaders recognised the time for change

Strong commitment in the foresight workshops

BSC pointed out needs to enhance partnerships, improve marketing, and utilise IT for productivity

TPA staff does not wait to get on with the reforms


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Vision re-visit. vision?

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SIGASasin Institute for Global Affairs

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SIGASasin Institute for Global Affairs