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Australian LV Coal Producers:Proven performance, but where to next?
Ross Stai n lay
ener al Manager Mar ket i ng
Jel l i nbah Resour ces
CoalTrans World Anthracite PCI Conference, September 2004, Hanoi
Jellinbah Resources
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Outline
Mines
Location
Production
Quality
InfrastructurePort, Rail
End Use
PCI and other uses
Future Projections
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Mines
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1.6 MtExpor t Sales
2003/2004
GladstonePort
BlackwaterRail System
Yarrabee CoalCompany
Mine Operator
YARRABEEMine Name
4.0 MtExport Sales2003/2004
GladstonePort
BlackwaterRail System
Jellinbah
Resources
Mine Operator
JELLINBAHMine Name
1.9 MtExport Sales
2003/2004
Dalrymple BayPort
GoonyellaRail System
Foxleigh MiningMine Operator
FOXLEIGHMine Name
5.2 MtExpor t Sales
2003/2004
Dalrymple BayPort
GoonyellaRail System
Australian Premium
Coals
Mine Operator
COPPABELLA /
MOORVALE
Mine Name3.7 MtExport Sales
2003/2004
Hay PointPort
GoonyellaRail System
BMAMine Operator
SOUTH WALKER
CREEK
Mine Name
Queensland LV Coal Producers
Total ReservesMeasured 363 Mt
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Queensland LV Coal Exports
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04
Austral ian Fiscal Year (ending 30 June)
Mt
Moorvale
Foxleigh
Coppabella
Sou th Walker Creek
Yarrabee
Jellinbah
Source: Department of Natural Resources & Mines - Qld Coal Industry Reviews
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0
5
10
15
20
25
Source: Department of Natural Resources & Mines, 2003 Australian Black Coal Statistics
Queensland Coal Mines Strip Ratio
Strip Ratio (bcm / product tonne)
LV Coal is shown in red
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LV Coals from Queensland
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
VM % (ad)
TS % (ad)
Jellinbah
Coppabella
Sou th Walker Creek
Foxleigh
Yarrabee
Moorvale
Area is proportional to tonnes
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Queensland Rangal CoalsPCI / Thermal Fraction CPP Flowsheet
DMC
(Secondary)
DMC(Primary)
FINES
CIRCUIT
FINESCIRCUIT
REJECT PCI /THERMAL
COKINGCOAL
Coarse
Intermediate
Fines
Slimes
FEED SIZE PROCESS
* DMC = dense medium cyclone
F
S
S
F
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Infrastructure
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QR* Coal Railings (*formerly Queensland Rail)
50
70
90
110
130
150
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
Mt
Source: QR
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QR Rail Snapshot
250 locomotives
5 500 coal wagons
Average 470 services a week
Train Sizes up to 10 000 t
Average 7 000 t
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Queensland Coal Exports by Port(2003/04 Provisional Figures)
Gladstone
Brisbane
Abbot Point
Dalrymple Bay
Hay Point
LV Coal
Other
3 Mt
42 Mt
34 Mt
44 Mt12 Mt
Source: Barlow Jonker Aug 04
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CQPA Port of Gladstone - Coal Exports
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04
Mt
Barney Poin t
RGTCT Non -blended
RGTCTBlended
1993/94 exports
= 18 Mt approx
Source: Central Queensland Ports Authority
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Hay Point Coal Terminal Throughput
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04
Mt
ProvisionalSource: Barlow Jonker Aug 04
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Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal- Historic and Projected Capacity
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Australian Fiscal Year (ending 30 June)
Mtpa
Actual Throughput
Net Operational Capacity
High Case pro jectionsLo w Case pro jectio ns
Source: Prime Infrastructure
Projected
Expansion
Stage 1
2
3
45
6
High
Low
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Util isation of Port Capacity - 2003
97 %
91 %81 %
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Dalrymple Bay Gladstone Hay Poin t
Mt
Exports (Mt) Capacity (Mt)
Source: Barlow Jonker Aug 04
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Queensland Coal Industry- Working Days Lost per 1000 Employees
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Calendar Year
No. of Days
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
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End Use
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Pulverized Coal Injection into Blast Furnaces
Coke
PCI
Coal
Coke Ovens Blast Furnace Coal Grinding andInjection System
Courtesy of BMH
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Typical PCI Installation
Raw Coal
Blast Furnace L
10 000 t HM / d
NaturalGas
Nitrogen
Booster Compressors
2000 t
Injection Station
2 x 19
834 t
2 x 42 t/h
2 x 42 t/h
PulverizersSource: Claudius Peters Technologies GmbH
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Europe Japan Brazi l * China * India
No of BFs
Operat ing BF PCI F it ted
* China have another 130 furnaces between 200 and 1000 m3. Brazil excludes charcoal BFs
PCI Coverage by Region & Average Injection Rates(furnaces larger than 1000 m3)
155
Average PCI Rate
kg/tHM
125
135
125
130
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0
510
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04F 05F 06F 07F 08F 09F 10F
Mt
Other
Canada
Venezuela
Indonesia
RSA
Austral ia:Other
Austral ia: LowVo l
PCI Coal Exports by Origin
F = ForecastSource: Barlow Jonker Aug 04
Vietnam includedin Other
Coddington Intl
Hill & Associates
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Queensland LV Coal - Exports by Region
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04
Austral ian Fiscal Years (ending 30 June)
Mt
Other
Americas
EU15
Asia
Source: Department of Natural Resources & Mines - Qld Coal Industry Reviews
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
F
2005
F
2006
F
2007
F
2008
F
2009
F
2010
F
Mt
Other
Americas
EU15Asia
Demand for Imported PCI Coal
Source: Barlow Jonker Aug 04 F = Forecast
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75 80 85 90
Carbon (%daf)
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Replacem
entRatio
European correlation (Brouwer & Toxopeus, 1991)*
Other European correlation (1999)*
Japanese correlation (Ishii, 2000)*
Modelling 1 (Hutny and others, 1990)**
Modelling 2 (Fukushima, 2000)**
* Actual blast furnace performance
** Theoretical computer model
Replacement Ratio(RR = kg of coke replaced for each kg of coal injected)
LV Coals
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The LV Advantage (4 Mtpa HM)
High Vol PCI
Coking Coal 509 kg/tHM @ $US50/t
Yields 386 kg/tHM Coke
PCI 150 kg/tHMRR 0.76 & $US40/t
Coal Cost = US$31.45 /tHM
= US$126 million pa
Savings US$ 6 mil lion pa
Coking Coal 479 kg/tHM @ $US50/t
Yields 362 kg/tHM Coke
PCI 150 kg/tHMRR 0.92 & $US40/t
Coal Cost = US$29.95 /tHM
= US$120 million pa
Savings US$ 12 mil lion pa
LV PCI
All coal pr ices FOB basis coke blend o f HCC & SSCC coalsExcludes value of by-products, coke oven gas and coke breeze
Coking Coal 662 kg/tHM @ $US50/t
Yields 500 kg/tHM Coke
Coal Cost = US$33.10 /tHM
= US$132 million pa
No PCI
Coal prices are for comparison purposes only.RR = coke replacement ratio
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Low Vol PCI Coal High Vol PCI Coal
Low VM Coal High VM Coal
Hot Blast:Equal orSlightly Higher
Hot Blast:Equal orSlightly Lower
O2 Rate:Equal orLower
O2 Rate:Equal orHigher
Permeability:Equal orSlightly Lower
Permeability:Equal orSlightly Higher
Gas Reduction:
Lower
Gas Reduction:
Higher
RAFT: Higher RAFT: Lower
CombustionEfficiency: Lower
CombustionEfficiency: Higher
Fuel Ratio: LowerCoke Ratio: Lower
Fuel Ratio: HigherCoke Ratio: Higher
Top Gas Vol.: LowerCalorific Value: Lower
Top Gas Vol.: HigherCalor ific Value: Higher
Dust : Equal orSlightly Higher
Dust : Equal orSlightly Lower
Impact of PCI Coal Type on BF Operation
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Pig Iron Production by Calendar Year* assumes same production in 2nd half of year 2004
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 P
Mt Asia (excluding China)
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 P
M t EU15
0
20
40
60
80
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 P
Mt NAFTA
0
20
40
60
80
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 P
M t South America
*
*
*
*
Source: IISI
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Japan Pig Iron by Calendar Year* assumes same production in 2nd half of year 2004
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Calendar Year
Mt
Projected
*
Source: IISI
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15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
Months - August 2003 to Ju ly 2004
Mt 2003/2004 Corresponding period 12 months previous
Countries include: Japan, Belgium,France, Germany, The Netherlands, UK,Brazil , India, Korea & Chinese Taipei
Blast Furnace Iron Production- Major Coal Importing Countries, August 2003 to July 2004
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CRU Steel Price Index, Global
60
70
80
90
100110
120
130140
150
160
Jan-02
Mar-0
2
May
-02
Jul-0
2
Sep-02
Nov
-02
Jan-03
Mar-0
3
May
-03
Jul-0
3
Sep-03
Nov
-03
Jan-04
Mar-0
4
May
-04
Jul-0
4
Sep-04
Index Value
Apri l 1994 = 100
Source: CRU Monitor
I t f Ch i PCI U P tt
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20 % LV 40 % LV 60 % LV
80 % LV
100
110
120
130
140150
160
170
180
190
200
0 5 10 15 20 25
LV PCI Coal Requi rements (Mt)
PCI Rate (kg/tHM)
Source: IISI
* Approx 190 Mt hot metal
(Example only)
Impact of Changing PCI Usage Patterns- Top 10 Steel Producers* Using Imported PCI Coal
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Features of Queensland LV Operations
5 independent producers, operating in a
politically stable environment
Large reserve base
Favourable mining conditions (open cut)
World class infrastructure including 3 majorcoal terminals
Proven performance and capacity to expand
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The future &concludingcomments
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The Future
Demand for LV coal is a function of:
BF hot metal production (coastal plants)
PCI rate (kg/t)
% of low vol in PCI coal
Also depends on price competitiveness relative
to alternative fuels (thermal coal, oil and gas)
Immediate outlook is for continuing strong
demand with measured production increases
from existing mines along with new capacity
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Jellinbah Resources
Thank you
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