Upload
collaborator
View
6.042
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
()()()()
2016.03.19
Agenda
Summary
01
/
(/)
Poly-silicon / Wafer
70%
70%10%-
()OCI()Wacker()HemlockREC()
Nexolon() LDK()GCL()Rene Solar() ()
()
Top 5(90%up)
-/
Poly-Silicon
>40%/ Wafer/Ingot
(SharpKyoceraSuntech)
30-60%40-70%
Source: IEK
DuPontFerro+Heraeus()Toyo()Analog() ()
()
-
()20%
(3691)
30-40% 2015 201539.65
Source: 103EnergyTrend
PV Cell Module System
50%20%-
70% ()
(PV inverter)
First Solar() Yingli() JA Solar()Trina()
()() (/)()Kyocera()
SMA()KACO()Fronius()Xantrex()
Top 4(61%)
()
Source: IEK
PV Cell 60-70%
10-20%5%
Module EnergyTrend
2070%35%
Cell 60-70%EVA/Glass/Frame10-15%
()
803 (2015 1H) 5000 MW (2015) 9972 MW (2014)
Source: PIDA
50%
16%
13%
8%
7%
6%
23%
17%
15%
8%
7%
5%
5%
4%
3%
3%
10%
1032015 EnergyTrend, Feb.2015
23 60 14 3 2015 1H (%)
()
2015Q4 : -10.16% : -2.54% : 0.71%
( / W)
90%
15-24%
0.32-0.38
10-17% 0.30-0.39
()(Amorphous Cells)(CIGS)(CdTe)(Thin Film Silicon Solar Cells)(DSSC)
8-13% 10-17%
GaAsCdTe GaAs CdTe
19-32% GaAs 10-15% CdTe
*30%36.8%42-57%
Source: IEK$US/Watt (2016/3/9)
02
Source: Renewables global status report 2015
2014 40GW
80% 50% (FIT)70%
Source: Renewables global status report 2015
:
Green Growth Strategy New Growth Strategy 12th Five-Year Plan Green Growth Strategy the 10th Malaysia Plan
60%
03
2015
/
0.96
2.30-2.45
0.93-1.06
2.78-2.80
4.67-6.48
1978 (PURPA)
(Avoidable Cost)
1980 PV40%4,000
1992 (EPA)
2004 (PTC)
()
20056
200620162005PV2.8/Wp32
20057
PV(ITC)10%30%20062007PV30%2000
20058
PVPV25%PV
PV20 (2014)City State Total Solar PV Installed (MW-DC)
Total Solar PV Rank
Per Capita Solar PV Installed (Watts-DC/Person) Per Capita Rank
Los Angeles CA 170 1 44 15
San Diego CA 149 2 110 4
Phoenix AZ 115 3 76 9
Indianapolis IN 107 4 127 2
San Jose CA 105 5 110 3
Honolulu HI 96 6 276 1
San Antonio TX 88 7 63 10
Denver CO 58 8 89 7
New York NY 41 9 5 44
New Orleans LA 36 10 94 6
San Francisco CA 30 11 36 19
Albuquerque NM 28 12 50 14
Raleigh NC 27 13 62 11
Sacramento CA 25 14 53 12
Las Vegas NV 24 15 40 16
Newark NJ 22 16 78 8
Austin TX 21 17 24 23
Portland OR 21 18 34 21
Jacksonville FL 14 19 17 27
Boston MA 13 20 20 24
200.1%PV6.5%
Environment America Research & Policy Center
PV (2014)
Environment America Research & Policy Center
ITC20162022
(Investment Tax CreditITC) 30%10%
(Energy Policy Act of 2005) 2006112007 (Tax Relief and Health Care Act of 2006) (Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008)
1991 FIT 1991
Feed-in Tariff
Feed-in Tariff (FIT)
THE ENERGY FOX
1999-2000
1999 10
2000 10 202010 12.5%
1999-2000 () 1991
Bechberger Reiche 10%
2000 2009 9,800MW
Statistisches Jahrbuch 2010
1 2 3 5 6 8 11 18 23 32 76 186 296 439
1074
1980 2812
3977 5994
9800
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
MW
p
2010 2050 2010 2050 2020
18% 2030 30% 2050 60% 2050 80%
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.9 3.2
4.3 5.2 3.4 3.1 3.6 3.8 4.3 4.7 4.8 4.1 4.5 5.2 6.2 6.6
7.7 7.6 9.3 10.2 11.6
14.2 15.1 16.3 17.0
20.4 23.7 25.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
%
AGEE-Stat
2010 2050 2010 2050 2020
18% 2030 30% 2050 60% 2050 80%
AGEE-Stat
3.8 15%
8.7 34% 5.2 20%
4.6 18%
1.9 8%
0.9 4%
0.3 1% (2013)
FIT2004
2000 FIT
2004-2011/kWh
(kW) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011< 30 57.40 54.53 51.80 49.21 46.75 43.01 39.14 28.7430-100 54.60 51.87 49.28 46.82 44.48 40.91 37.23 27.34100-1000 54.00 51.30 48.74 46.30 43.99 39.58 35.23 25.87> 1000 54.00 51.30 48.74 46.30 43.99 33.00 29.37 21.57
PV ()
04
17%
201291.43%2013164.03%201460.15%
23.88GW 2020150GW
15% 20122%203018%
2013 2015750201449
65
2015
16.5%17% 30% CIGSCdTe
12%13%13%12%
GW1000MW
100MW50MW50MW100
100MW 50MW
5.2GW2.5GW7.7GW
1GW
270228
1
2 20%
A+
FIT
20
0.5%
491%
1041.1GW0.61%
4.5-64.6-6.4
0.61%
10320.4%20.6% 104P-Perc
21.10%19.5% 10522%
202520GW 35%