AnaAnalysis of international steel demand forecast

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  1. 1. 2014 0.6% 2015 0.5% 15.44 2016 1.4% 15.65 2008 2016 2014 1995 2015 2016 0.5% 2014 2014 () 2.3% 2015 2015 2.4% 2016 4.0% 2014 6.2% 2015 2015 0.2% 2016 1.8%
  2. 2. Analysis of international steel demand forecast After the 0.6% growth in 2014, the international iron and steel institute forecast global steel apparent consumption will grow by 0.5% in 2015, up to 1.544 billion tons. It is expected that global steel consumption will grow by 1.4% in 2016, up to 1.565 billion tons. Global steel demand forecast of the international steel this release more conservative, mainly affected by a slowdown in China. The forecast also reflects the most countries implement the impact of the economic structure adjustment, especially after 2008, the effects of investment growth is slowing. As the effects of these changes, the steel industry will be growth is slowing, the industry will focus on improving the efficiency of operations, and the value of steel products for customers and society. International steel association said that while the global steel industry still faces some downside risks, such as: parts of Europe geopolitical instability, the volatility of international capital flows, as well as China's economic slowdown. But some positive factors are emerging and developed economies also more and more positive news, particularly in the euro zone's recovery power continuously strengthen. In developing and emerging economies, we see people's attitude are more and more optimistic towards India, the steel consumption in Middle East and north Africa region is increasing. Despite these positive factors cannot be completely offset the effect of China's economic growth, the demand growth is still expected to gradually recover after 2016. International steel association thinks that Chinese demand will continue to decline. In 2014, due to China's economic structure transformation have significant effect on the real estate market, China's steel demand appeared the first negative growth since 1995. This situation may not change in the short term, China's steel demand will continue to appear 0.5% of negative growth in 2015 and 2016. In the medium term, there will not be a strong rebound. To stabilize the slow development of China's economy, the Chinese government has taken some measures. For the impact of these measures, at present there are still some uncertainty. With China stepping into the next stage of development, China's economic structural adjustment is inevitable, but need some time. In the short term, due to a serious surplus of domestic supplies, China's steel exports in 2014 grew sharply, it will influence on the global iron and steel trade patterns, and may even intensified trade frictions. In 2014, developing countries (except Chinese) appeared the slow growth of 2.3%, which is a special reason of Brazil and Russia's steel market continues to deteriorate, especially in the seamless steel pipe and erw steel pipe market. Developing economies growth in 2015 is expected to remain weak as a whole. Many developing economies of the steel market to show the maturity factor, which inhibits growth in steel demand. Nevertheless, we still expect a positive growth in India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Egypt and other emerging economies, the steel market continues to develop in these countries. The market's overall steel demand is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2015, 4.0% growth in 2016. In 2014, with the strong return of US fundamentals and the strong recovery of European Union, demand for steel in developed countries increased by 6.2%. In spite of this, we expect that the growth in developed countries in 2015 will be eased, part of the reason is the high base effect, another reason is a slowdown in the American economy, which is relatively bad for the Japanese and south Korean steel market environment. Although the European economic recovery has broad
  3. 3. foundation in the region, it is still limited to weak investment activity and high unemployment. Steel demand in developed economies will grow by 0.2% in 2015, 1.8% growth in 2016.