Using census data to analyse the intergenerational transmission of the Welsh language

Dyddiad

Defnyddio data’r cyfrifiad i ddadansoddi trosglwyddo’r GymraegUsing census data to analyse the intergenerational transmission of the Welsh language

Comisiynydd y Gymraeg/Welsh Language Commissioner 2013

Gweithdy ar y cyfrifiad WISERD/SYGWISERD/ONS Census workshop

Hywel Jones10/12/2013

Y gwaith arweiniodd at y posterThe work which led to the poster

Welsh Poster Cymraeg: • http://bit.ly/15Cr60pfEnglish Poster Saesneg: • http://bit.ly/18BlCFi


Cynhyrchwyd y poster i’w arddangos yng nghynhadledd flynyddol y BSPS yn Abertawe 2013.

The poster was produced for display in the BSPS annual conference in Swansea 2013.


% yn gallu siarad Cymraeg, 1991-2011, yn ôl oed% able to speak Welsh, 2001 and 2011, by age


Age

Trosglwyddo’r GymraegTransmission of the Welsh language


• 2001: S143, C0156, C0584, C0585, C0602, C0790, C0801

• 2011: DC2112, DC2115, DC2601

Tablau Tables


Trosglwyddo – yn ôl math o deulu


Transmission – by family type




2011


2011


Ffynhonnell: DC2112, 2011; C0156, 2001

Source


Ffynhonnell: DC2115, 2011; C0584, 2001

Modelu trosglwyddo


Tebygolrwydd y bydd plentyn yn gallu siarad Cymraeg = logit-1(Cyfrifiad + Math o deulu + Ardal + NS-SEC + Cyfrifiad:Math o deulu + Ardal:Math o deulu

Modelling transmission


Probability that a child will speak Welsh = logit-1(Census + Family type+ Area + NS-SEC + Census:Family type + Area:Family type)

Ar gollMissing

Cyfraddau trosglwyddo: Lefel adran etholiadolTransmission rates: ward level


Cyplau – 2 oedolyn Cymraeg


Rhiant unigol – 1 oedolyn Cymraeg

Couples – 2 adults speak Welsh

Couples – 1 adult speaks Welsh

Single parent – 1 adult speaks Welsh


Cydberthyniad cyfraddau trosglwyddo (Spearman) 2011, lefel awdurdodau lleol

(Spearman) correlation of transmission rates 2011, local authority level

% yn gallu siarad Cymraeg, 16 i 64 oed

Cwpl – 2 oedolyn Cymraeg

Rhiant unigol Cymraeg

Cwpl - 1 oedolyn Cymraeg

Couple: 2 WS adult

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 10 30 50

0.4

0.6

0.8

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

0.30

Lone parent: WS

0.65** 0.55*** Couple: 1 WS adult

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.4 0.6 0.8

1030

50

0.59* 0.62***

0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60

0.56*** % of pop.16-64 Welsh spk

2011



2011




MSOAsDosbarthiad cyfraddau crai cyplau – 2 oedolyn Cymraeg

Distribution of crude rates of couples– 2 adult speaks Welsh


MSOAsDosbarthiad cyfraddau cyplau wedi eu llyfnu (+0.5 i rai heb ddata) – 2

oedolyn CymraegDistribution of rates of couples smoothed (+0.5 to those with no data) – 2

adults speak Welsh


MSOAsDosbarthiad cyfraddau cyplau – 2 oedolyn Cymraeg –

wedi eu llyfnu (empirig Bayes gofodol)Distribution of rates of couples – 2 adult speaks Welsh

– smoothed (spatial empirical Bayes)

Meddalwedd

• R – i gael ffiniau Cymru o rai Cymru a Lloegr geir o wefan y SYG; dadansoddi; siartiau (gyda ggplot2); modelu

• GeoDa – i archwilio’r data, a llyfnu gofodol

• MapInfo – i lunio mapiau terfynol

• ManyEyes – i archwilio’r data, a chyflwyno data manwl

• http://ibm.co/18rIb38• http://ibm.co/1goGJh0• Excel – i’r cyhoedd• Google Fusion

• R – to extract Wales’ boundaries from England and Wales on ONS website; analysis; charts (with ggplot2); modelling

• GeoDa – exploratory analysis and spatial smoothing

• MapInfo – for final map design• ManyEyes - EDA and

presentation of detailed data• http://ibm.co/18rIb38• http://ibm.co/1goGJh0• Excel – public presentation• Google Fusion tables


Software

CyfeiriadauReferences

• GeoDa https://geodacenter.asu.edu/projects/opengeoda• Jones, H. (2007a) Goblygiadau newidiadau ym mhroffil oedran siaradwyr

Cymraeg a’u dosbarthiad gofodol. Gwerddon I: 2 Hydref, 10-37. www.gwerddon.org

• Jones, H. (2009) The intergenerational transmission of the Welsh language: an analysis of the 2001 Census results for Wales. Paper presented to BSPS Annual Conference 2009. http://www.webarchive.org.uk/wayback/archive/20120330035624/http://www.byig-wlb.org.uk/English/publications/Publications/BSPS%202009%20Conference%20The%20intergenerational%20transmission%20of%20Welsh%2020090910.pdf

• Jones, H. (2012) A statistical overview of the Welsh language. Welsh Language Board

• http://www.comisiynyddygymraeg.org/Cymraeg/Cymorth/dataacystadegau/Pages/Hafandataacystadegau.aspx

• [email protected]


Data & Analytics

Using census data to analyse the intergenerational transmission of the Welsh language