120031427

? . . , , , , . , 23 . , , , , 5 , , , , , , , , , , , 11 , , , , , , , 7 .

, , .

, . .

(storage) = + - - +

, = , m3 d-1 = , m d-1 = , m2 E = , m d-1 = , days = , m3

- , , . - ( , ) - (: , , ) . - (: , , , )

- , . - , . - ( ) . (Validation) - (1) . (2) . (3) .

Robustness - . Post - . - . - , , () () .

- , .

- , .

. . . . .

. . . . . .

5 porter . 5 ,,,, .

. . . ( ) . . .

. 1. . 2. . 3. . 4. . 5. .

. . GM IBM .

. . . .

. .

1. . 2. .3. . 4. . 5. .

, . .

2 . 4 3 . 1 3 . .

(, , )

. 100 m3 s-1 110 m3 s-1 1 m3 s-1 . 1 109 m3. . ( : .)

. 50 kg d-1 . : ( (1)) . = - = 0 ( ) = - ()

Example 1.3 (1)0.0 (BOD) (D.O. .) (DO) . (D.O. ) /L ( D.O.) . .

Problem: . a. 0.10 ( 90% ) Chi-square b. P=0.10 t-( ) c. r2 > 0.8 (y D.O. ) (x D.O. ) a. Chi-square .

.

1) , 2) , , 3) , .

. (Stochastic Response Surface Method; SRSM) (High Dimensional Model Representation ; HDRM) . (Monte Carlo) .

(environmental fate) , . HDMR .

(FACT) Savannah (General Separation Area; GSA) . 3 . , SRSM HDMR Monte Carlo .