Школа успешного трейдера - 1 курс.pdf

.

1

1

1. ..............................................................2

1.1. FOREX ...............................................................2 1.1.1. ...............................................2 1.1.2. FOREX, .........................................................10 1.1.3. .............................................11 1.1.4. FOREX..................................................................................................14 1.1.5. FOREX...........................................................................15 1.1.5. ......................................................................................20

1.2. .................................................22 1.2.1. ..........................................................................................22 1.2.2. ..........................................................27 1.2.3. ..................................................................................28 1.2.4. .......................................................................................31

2. ...............................36

2.1. ...........................................................36

2.2. , FOREX .......................37

2.3. .....................................................38

2.4. - . .....................................................40

2.5. , , ..........................................................41

2.6. ..................................42

.......................................................................................42

2.5. ..............................................43 .................................................................................................44 .......................................................................................................44 - (DJI)...............................................................................................44 " " (S&P) .......................................................................45 - (NYSE Index)..........................................45 (AMEX) .................................................46 (NASDAQ) ..............................................................46 .....................................................................................................46 : ..................................................................................................47 .................................................................................................49

PDF created with pdfFactory Pro trial version www.pdffactory.com

.

2

:....................................................................................................49 (Gross Domestic Product GDP) ................................................49 (Treasure Statement) ............................................49 .......................................................50

3. . ...................................................................................51

3.1. ....................................................................................................51 3.1.1. ....................................................................51 3.1.2. (): .......................................................................52 3.1.3. .................................................................................53 3.1.4. ..........................................................................................................53 3.1.5. . .........................................................55

3.2. ...............................................................56 3.2.1. ...........................................................................................56 3.2.2. M .....................................................................................61 .................................................................................................................63 ..................................................................................................................63 (Price Oscillator - OSC) ..........................................................................63

4. ...........................................................................67

4.1. ....................................................68

4.2. ...............................................69

: .........................................................................................................69

1. 1.1. FOREX 1.1.1.

. , . . . , .

, . . 70- 20 , .


.

3

, . .

30- XX

. - . . 30- . . "" ("cable"). , . 1930 . , . " ". , , . . . - . . " ". 1920- . , . 1929-1933 . . , 1931 . "" . , , .

1944 - . - . : () (). .

- , 1944., , , . -, . . - - +/- 1 %.


.

4

. " " .

- , . , "" . , . .

-

, - ;

, ( - );

, ( - 1%); ( - $35);

;

; , - .

.

1947 , . , , . " ". 1949 3.1 ., 1959 10.1 . .

60- , . . , 1948 1967 . 109 . 48,2%. 48 . 1958 . .

1964 . , $35 . . -


.

5

, , . - .

1967 , - . 1970 , . , .

1971 .

1971

. 18 11 . . . , . . 15 1971 . , .

1971

( , ). - . 4.5%. . 5 . . , . , 10%. .

1973-1974 . - . 1973. .


.

6

- , . . , - " " " " - - - .

1976 (. ). , . . , , . . , , .

1978 (). - . , -. - , . - .

1985 , . , .

1957 . : (), , , , , .

1963 () .

1969 , .

1972 - .


.

7

2.25%. 4.5%.

1973 , , .

1978-79 . 9 - . - - . 9 7 : (), , , , , , . , . - . - , - . - . 2.25%, - 6%.

1981 .

1986 . 6%.

1990 , , 2.9500. () () .

1992 12 - . 1957 . , , , .

1992 . . .


.

8

. 5%, . . , , , . , . . , .

1993 . , . . . , . , . , , , , . . , 2.25% 6% 15%.

1995 1999 , , , .

1996 .

1997 -.

1998 11 , : , , , , , , , , , , .

1998 11 , . .


.

9

1999 , . 11 . (EMU).

(EUR) 12 . :

.

, . , , . 2003 .

, , 1 1999 (. 1); , , . 1 2001 . 1 2002 () .

1. - :

1 = 13,7603 = 40,3399 = 1,95583 = 5,94573 = 6,55957 = 340,750 = 0,787564 = 1936,27 = 40,3399 = 2,20371 = 200,482


.

10

= 166,386 0.00 1 2002 12 EC, . 1.1.2. FOREX, , FOREX (Foreign Exchange, FX), - () -, , . , . FOREX 70- .. , - . FOREX . , , . , , FOREX . FOREX , - . FOREX , , . - . FOREX - . , . 1 3 . , FOREX, (USD), (EUR), (JPY), (CHF) (GBR). 70%. 15% Forex, . FOREX :

1) ;


.

11

2) 100%- . FOREX ( FOREX 1 3 ), , - ( );

3) , FOREX, ;

4) -, FOREX , ;

5) - , .

, - , REUTERS, DOW JONES, CQG, BLOOMBERG, TENFORE .. 10. 1.1.3.

FOREX :

,

FOREX . , , , . , . - (US Federal Reserve FED). - (Deutsche Bundesbank BUBA) (Bank of England Old Lady).


.

12

FOREX, , , , . . , , . . FOREX . ( ) , . , , , . , ( ). - - , , () , , , . . , , , . , . , Barclays Bank, Citibank, Chase Manhatten Bank, Deutsche Bank, Union Bank of Switzerland, Citibank, Chase Manhattan Bank, Standard Bank. ( , Union Bank of Switzerland) . . . , - . , . , .


.

13

, , () (). , , . , , , , , . "Quantum"; , . , : , .., Xerox, Nestle, General Motors . , , , , , .. , , - , , . , , - (market makers). . . Forex . , , . , , , . . , Lasser Marshall, Harlow Butler, Tullett and Tokio, Coutts, Tradition . , , , , . , .


.

14

, - , . : - , , , , , .. , , , , . . , . .. FOREX . , - . : , , .. , , - , . FOREX . 1.1.4. FOREX , , , . 150. , http://www.rbc.ru/okv.html http://www.micex.ru/online/ . FOREX, , , (majors), - . (majors): USD [buck (), greenback ( )] EUR , GBP - STG (cable, ) CHF - (swissie) JPY = YEN - CAD AUD (aussie )


.

15

1.1.5. FOREX , FOREX 24 . , (), - , , , , , --, , , - -. : FOREX , . , ( ). GMT - Greenwich Meridian Time. ( ) GMT , .

GMT

Wellington +11 +12 Sidney +9 +10 Tokyo1 +9 +9 Hong Kong1 +8 +8 Singapore +7 +8 M +3 +4 Frankfurt +1 +2 Zurich +1 +2 Paris +1 +2 London 0 +1 New York -5 -4 Chicago -6 -5 Los-Angeles -8 -7

1:

: , GMT 3 , . FOREX


.

16

, FOREX, , , , , , . , , VIP- , , , , -. , , , , - (, - , , , , 11 ..) . , , , , FOREX. , . - , , . , : , . , , - , , , . , , , , , , , . " " 24 , , FOREX ... , (, , -, , , , .) , . FOREX 1 3 , . - 100% , FOREX , , . 7.30 . 8.00 . , . , , , .


.

17

. , , , . . , , . , , , , . , , . : , . 7.00 GMT (10.00 ) , , , . - 11.00 , . , , - , , . - 13.00 GMT (16-00 MSK), , . - , ( , ). ( 17.00 GMT 20-00 MSK) , "" , . , . cecc . 1. 3-00 10-00 ( - ) 2. : 11-00 15-00, - - 16-00 20-00, - 22-00.


.

18

3. : , , , . 4. , , , . , - , , " ", - , , "" . 5. , , , , " " , - . , , - , . , ... - . , , , , , . , 15 , , " - ", , ... , , , . FOREX - . . - . (MSK) .

(MSK)

ASIA

03:00 04:00 04:00

11:00 12:00 12:00

04:00 05:00 04:00

12:00 13:00 12:00

EUROPA

09:00 09:00 09:00 10:00

17:00 17:00 17:00 18:00

09:00 09:00 09:00 10:00

17:00 17:00 17:00 18:00

AMERICA - 16:00 24:00 16:00 24:00


.

19

17:00 01:00 17:00 01:00

PACIFIC 00:00 01:00

08:00 09:00

00:00 01:00

08:00 09:00

, (, , -, , , , .) , . FOREX 1 3 , . - 100% , FOREX , , . 7.30 . 8.00 . , . , , , . . , , , . . , , . , , , , . , , . : , . 7.00 GMT (10.00 ) , , , . - 11.00 , . , , - , , .


.

20

- 13.00 GMT (16-00 MSK), , . - , ( , ). ( 17.00 GMT 20-00 MSK) , "" , .

, . cecc .

1.1.5.

FOREX .

,

GBP

EUR

YEN

- USD

CHF

1 1 1-3; 15 1,.

1

11 . 21 29 4,

. 1, .

3, 4, 5, . 8,

20 4 . 1 15, 23 . 3 10 . 3, 23 11,

25, 26 24-26 23, 31 25 25 www.forextrader.ru . 2004 .

2004 FOREX 01.01.04 Australia AUD New Years Day 01.01.04 Canada CAD New Years Day 01.01.04 European Union EUR New Years Day


.

21

01.01.04 Japan JPY New Years Day 01.01.04 New Zealand NZD New Years Day 01.01.04 Switzerland CHF New Years Day 01.01.04 United Kingdom GBP New Years Day 01.01.04 United States USD New Years Day 02.01.04 Japan JPY New Years Extra Day 02.01.04 New Zealand NZD New Years Extra Day 02.01.04 Switzerland CHF New Years Extra Day 03.01.04 Japan JPY New Years Extra Day 15.01.03 Japan JPY Coming of Age Day 19.01.04 United States USD Martin Luther King Day 26.01.04 Australia AUD National Day 06.02.04 New Zealand NZD Waitangi (National Day) 11.02.04 Japan JPY National Foundation Day 16.02.04 United States USD Presidents Day 20.03.04 Japan JPY Spring Equinox Day 09.04.04 Australia AUD Good Friday 09.04.04 Canada CAD Good Friday 09.04.04 European Union EUR Good Friday 09.04.04 New Zealand NZD Good Friday 09.04.04 Switzerland CHF Good Friday 09.04.04 United Kingdom GBP Good Friday 12.04.04 Australia AUD Easter Monday 12.04.04 Canada CAD Easter Monday 12.04.04 European Union EUR Easter Monday 12.04.04 New Zealand NZD Easter Monday 12.04.04 Switzerland CHF Easter Monday 12.04.04 United Kingdom GBP Easter Monday 26.04.04 Australia AUD Anzac Day 26.04.04 New Zealand NZD Anzac Day 29.04.04 Japan JPY Day of the Nature 03.05.04 Japan JPY Constitution Day 03.05.03 United Kingdom GBP May Bank Holiday 04.05.04 Japan JPY Citizen's Day of Rest 05.05.04 Japan JPY Children's Day 20.05.04 Switzerland CHF Ascension Day 24.05.04 Canada CAD Victoria Day 31.05.04 Switzerland CHF Whit Monday 31.05.04 United Kingdom GBP Spring Bank Holiday 31.05.04 United States USD Memorial Day 07.06.04 New Zealand NZD Queens Birthday 14.06.04 Australia AUD Queens Birthday 01.07.04 Canada CAD National Day 05.07.04 United States USD Independence Day 19.07.04 Japan JPY Seas Day 01.08.04 Switzerland CHF National Day 30.08.04 United Kingdom GBP Summer Bank Holiday


.

22

06.09.04 Canada CAD Labour Day 01.09.04 United States USD Labour Day 20.09.04 Japan JPY Day of Senior Citizens 23.09.04 Japan JPY Autumn Equinox Day 06.10.03 Australia AUD Labour Day 11.10.04 Canada CAD Canadian Thanksgiving Day 11.10.04 Japan JPY Health-Sports Day 11.10.04 United States USD Columbus Day 03.11.04 Japan JPY National Culture Day 11.11.04 Canada CAD Remembrance Day 11.11.04 United States USD Veterans Day 23.11.04 Japan JPY Labour Thanksgiving Day 23.12.04 Japan JPY Birthday of the Emperor 25.11.04 United States USD Thanksgiving Day 27.12.04 Australia AUD Christmas 27.12.04 Canada CAD Christmas 27.12.04 New Zealand NZD Christmas 27.12.04 United Kingdom GBP Christmas 28.12.04 Australia AUD Boxing Day 28.12.04 Canada CAD Boxing Day 28.12.04 New Zealand NZD Boxing Day 28.12.04 United Kingdom GBP Boxing Day 31.12.04 Japan JPY New Years Eve 1.2. 1.2.1.

1.2.1.1.

- ( ), ( ). (, USD/DEM) , - . . - (Bid) - , , - (Ask Offer) - , . , (spread). , .

- (Point, Pips). ( ) , .. . 0.0001, , , - 0.01. (Big Figure) , , , : EUR 60/65, , , EUR/USD 1.2660/1.2665.


.

23

USD/CHF 1.6630/35 , 1.6630 1 USD; 1.6635 1 USD; 5 ; - USD, - CHF. GBP/USD 1.6310/15 , 1.6310 1 GBP; 1.6315 1 GBP; 5 ; - GBP, - USD.

1.2.1.2.

- .

- .

. , USD/JPY, USD/CHF, .. . (GBP/USD) , - . : (AUD/USD) (NZD/USD). (EUR/USD). , USD, .. USD/CHF CHF, GBP/USD GBP, EUR/USD EUR.

1.2.1.3. /

, . , ( ) ( ) . , , ( ) ( ) . , , .


.

24

: EUR , USD

.

: USD , CHF .


.

25

( ) ( ), , .. , . , , :

, , BUY . (, GBP/USD ), , USD/CHF, - .

, , ( , ) SELL . (, GBP/USD ), , USD/CHF, - .

1.2.1.4. -

FOREX . -. -: EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF .

- . - , , .

1. CHFJPY = USDJPY / USDCHF 2. GBPCHF = GBPUSD / USDCHF 3. EURGBP = EURUSD / GBPUSD

1.2.1.5.


.

26

$ USD Green back, Buck EUR JPY (YEN) GBP (STG) Cable CHF (SFR) Swiss, Swissy FRF Paris SEK Stokie A$ AUD Aussie C$ CAD NZD Kiwi XAU () XAG ()


.

27

1.2.2.

1.2.2.1.

: , , , . () . - .

Buy () Sell () Out (, ). , - . , .

, , 100 000 ( ). - "" . , Forexite .

1.2.2.2.

- , . , . . , , (Long - ). - (Short- ).

, , "" " ". Square.

. Buy 100 000 GBP 1.6200 , , Sell 162 000 USD, ( GBP/USD) - . . Sell 100 000 GBP, . , .

1.2.2.3.

() , , .


.

28

= ( - )

. 1. . 2. , . 3. , , - . 4. , : , .

, EUR/USD 1.2650/55 , .. , . 1.2655. - , , 1.2675, . = 100 000 * (1.2675 - 1.2655) = 200 USD.

1.2.3.

1.2.3.1.

FOREX . , .

, ( ) . (Leverage).

, , ( ).

1.2.3.2.

( ) - , . - .

(Leverage) - , , . , 10 100. , .

5 000 USD, 1:100. , 500 000


.

29

USD (= 5 000 * 100) . 500 000, 100 000 USD, . 4 000 (= 5 000 - 100 000 / 100) .

1.2.3.3. (Value Date)

(Value Date) - . (Spot), .. , . ,

1.2.3.4.

C . - , . . ( ) . , . ( ) .

, , - . , . , ( ) .

, () Roll-over.

1.2.3.5. (Roll-over)

(Roll-over Swap Tom/Next) , ( - Spot - ) - . - , .

(Buy Sell) ( ). ( ), .


.

30

? , , . . , , . , . , .

, .

1.2.3.6.

( , Equity - /) . . , , - .

- , (= / ). - ( ), . - 50% 10% . , , , .

10 000 USD. 100. 15% . 500 000 USD CHF 1.7020, . 5 000 USD (= 500 000 / 100). 750 USD (= 0.15 * 5 000).


.

31

1.6710 9 276 USD (= 500 000 * (1.7020 - 1.6710) / 1.6710) , , 724 USD (= 10 000 - 9 276), . .

1.2.4.

/ Buy Sell ("" "") , - / . : (Stop Order) (Limit Order); Stop Loss (Stop), Limit (Take Profit), .

1.2.4.1. (Stop Order)

- , (.. - ). ("Stop Loss") ("Stop Profit") ; .

, USD/JPY 119.20/25. Buy 100 000 USD/JPY 119.25 Stop Order Sell 100 000 USD/JPY 118.75. , USD/JPY 118.75, , . 50 000 JPY.

1.2.4.2. (Limit Order)

- , (.. - ). ("Take Profit") ; .

, USD/JPY 119.20/25. Buy 100 000 USD/JPY 119.25 Limit Order Sell 100 000 USD/JPY 120.25. , USD/JPY 120.25, . 100 000 JPY.


.

32

1.2.4.3. (One Cancels Other)

(Stop Limit), OCO (One Cancels Other - ). , , .

, USD/JPY 119.20/25. Buy 100 000 USD/JPY 119.25 : : Sell 100 000 USD/JPY 118.75; : Sell 100 000 USD/JPY 120.25. , USD/JPY 118.75, ( ), Limit Order . USD/JPY 120.25, ( ), Stop Order .

1.2.4.4. GTC (Good Till Cancelled)

GTC (Good Till Cancelled - ). , . Day order - , ( FOREX -). FOREX GTC, .

1.2.4.5.

, . , , , , . , .

- . , .

EUR 28.02.04.


.

33

1.2490-93 ( CMS-FOREX).

1.2493 ( BUY), 1.2390 ( SELL), :

Stop Buy 1.2498 ( 1 ) Limit Buy 1.2488 ( 2 ) Stop Sell 1.2485 ( 3 ) Limit Sell 1.2495 ( 4 )

CMS-FOREX.


.

34

, . , ?

, , , , -, . 5 ( CMS) 20 ( ). , , .

1.2.4.6. (Slippage)

, .

- . : , . MS. : , ( ) - . Slippage ().

, , . - (Slippage) - . .

, , , (Market Offer), (Market Bid), , .

1.2.4.7. LEVERAGE

1990- ,


.

35

, . , , , , . FOREX , , .

, FOREX , . , , FOREX , : , , .

FOREX , -, - Leverage. Leverage FOREX.

FOREX , 300 10-15 1:100. , , , ? ?

, , , : 1000100=100.000 . , , . - : 100.000 , , , , FOREX- . , FOREX , . , ( ) , 78 740 1.27, 5 , 1.2730, 78 740 , 100236 . 100000 , , 236 .

, , , FOREX , , FOREX, . ? , . . 10000$, 3% , , - - 30 ( ). , , 300$. , ,


.

36

, , ( - 30 ) 1500$ 15% . . , , . FOREX 12-17% . , , . . FOREX , . , , 30000 1:50 1:30. .

, 1:100. , GCI (http://www.gcitrading.com) $500 , 0.5% 1:200. , , , 1:100. , , , . , , ? . .

: , , . , 30-50 , 1:30. , FOREX .

2.

2.1.

, , , , . , - . , , - . , , .

- . , -


.

37

. , .

- , , , , , . market-makers, , , , . - - , . , - , , . , , , . - , .

, , :

; .

2.2. , FOREX

, :

; ; ; -.

:

- , ( , , ..); - , .


.

38

, .

:

; ; ; - ; , ; , , , , ; ; ; .

.

2.3. .

, . , , . , , , ..

FOREX . , , , , , . ,,'', . , - , . .

2.3.1. .


.

39

.

(Trade deficit) 1 (Payment deficit) 1 : (CPI) (PPI) 1

(, ..) 1

(GDP) 1 (Unemployment) 1 (4, 3, 2, 1, 0) 1 1 - (Retail sales) 2 (Housing starts) 2 (Orders) 2 (Producer price) 2 (Industrial production) 2

(Productivity) 2 3 3 3 (Deposit repos) 3 (DJI, NIKKEY, DAX, FTSE) 3 (T-bills, T-bonds) 3 .

. , . , . , .

.

- . , . - , , - . , , , , , , , , .


.

40

2.4. - .

, . , , ( ). , , , . .

400 - . , , .

, .

, , . - . , , . - , , , .

, . ( , 1994 ) . (international monetary union), , , , . , , .


.

41

2.5. , , .

, . 29 1995 1.1400 1.1480 , 1.1580 . , 104.55 97.15, . , , , .

2.5.1. :

,

, . , .

:

: ; .

: ; , ( , ..).

. 2.5.2.


.

42

.

--> % --> -->

--> % -->

--> . , ,

--> -->

--> . --> - ( .), ( )

--> -->.

--> ,

--> ,

, ,

--> --> - .

--> , .

2.6.

- ; - ; - ; EURO - , .

. , , , .


.

43

= ( + + ) (1 - ), - , - (1 - ), - , - , - .

:

(m) = 1(m) / 0(m), (n) = 1(n) / 0(n), m n M N, 0 1 .

:

= ( + ) / , - , - , - ( , . , ).

,

" - ":

- - , .. , ; - . " ".

2.5.


.

44

, :

( , .);

,

,

, . Interest rates differential ( ) : T-bills ( ) USA Bonds UK Gilts Germany Bunds Japan JGB USA Japan Japan bonds USA 60% . 80% bonds USA. DJIA USA Nikkey 225 - Japan FTSE 100 UK CAC 40 - France DAX 30 Germany Hang Seng HK ( ) - (DJI) 4 -. - (The Dow Jones Industrial Average - DJIA) - 30 . - . : , . 15 20% , - .


.

45

( , 10% , ). - . . - (The Dow Jones Transportation Average - DJTA) - , 20 (, ). - (The Dow Jones Utility Average - DJUA) - 15 , - . - (The Dow Jones Composite Average - DJCA) - , , -. " " (S&P) " ". - 500 100 . S&P - 500 500 , : 400 , 20 , 40 40 . , - , , . 80% , - . -, , , . . S&P - 100. , 500 , , . . - (NYSE Index) , - , , , - , ( , ). -, , NYSE .


.

46

- . - , - . (AMEX) , . (AMEX Major Market Index) 20 . -. , , - . , 15 -. . (AMEX Market Value Index) : , , . 1973 . 800 , , , , , . , , , , , . . (NASDAQ) , , . NASDAQ, 3500 ( ). , . 1971 . . . , :


.

47

3. Discount rate. ,

. , .

4. Repo rate. ,

() . . Fed Funds ( Repo USA)

5. - Lombard rate. ,

, .

:

USA Federal Funds 1.75% 11.12.01-0.25% 24.09.02 Discount rate 1.25% 11.12.01-0.25% 24.09.02 UK Repo rate 4.00% 08.11.01-0.50% 04-05.09.02 EU(12) Refinancing tender 3.25% 08.11.01-0.50% 12.09.02 Deposit rate 2.25% 08.11.01-0.50% 12.09.02

Marginal lending rate 4.25% 08.11.01-0.50% 12.09.02 Japan Discount rate 0.10% 18.09.01-0.15% 17-18.09.02

Overnight call rate target 0.15% 28.02.01-0.10% 17-18.09.02 Switzerland 3 month LIBOR range

0.25 -1.25% 26.07.02-0.50% 19.09.02

Canada Overnight rate target 2.75% 16.07.02+0.25% 16.10.02 Bank rate 3.00% 16.07.02+0.25% 16.10.02 Australia Cash rate 4.75% 04.06.02+0.25% 01.10.02

. . , . , . :

USA :


.

48

FED Federal Reseve System ; FOMC Federal Open Market Committee, : .

- Alan Greenspan

Germany :

Bundesbank (BBK , Buba)

Buba cooncil meeting - Buba 2 ;

Ernst Welteke Great Britain :

Bank of England BOE ;

1 ;

Eddie George

Switzerland :

Swiss National Bank (SNB) ;

;

Hans Meyer

Japan :

Bank of Japan ( BOJ ) ;

24 ;

Masaru Hayami

EU :

Europian Central Bank ( ECB ) ;

Willem F. Duisenberg , President of the ECB

, , , . , , .


.

49

: , . , , , , . - . (London International Financial Futures Exchange - LIFFE), (European Options Exchange - EOE), (Deutsche Terminboerse - DTB), (Singapore International Monetary Exchange - SIMEX) (Sydney Futures Exchange - SFE) . (Consumer Price Index CPI) - . (Producer Price Index PPI) . , . 3% . : 1, 2, 3 , 4 MONEY SUPPLY . 1 - , ; 2 =1 + , ; 3 =2 + ; 4 =3 + . , , , . (Gross Domestic Product GDP) GDP, . 3% ; . , . CPI PPI M/M. GDP Q/Q Y/Y. (Treasure Statement)

1. (Personal Income) (Consumer Sentiment)


.

50

2. (Construction Spending) (Hosing Starts) (Building Permits) (New Houses Sales) (Existing Houses Sales). (Unemployment Rate) . . (Imital Claims). (Continuing Claims). . (Retail Sales) , . (Durable Goods). 16:30 18:30 (Reuters,CQG)

JAPAN 31 . , , , . : USD/JPI, USD/DEM, DEM/JPI, CHF/JPI, GBP/JPI. . , , , . - . GERMANY ( , ). , , ($30), . 1992 1 1993 , : 1992 . . 1993 : - 32,6%, - 19,9%, - 11,5%. 1994 - -- . Maastricht criterion , , : < 3%


.

51

< 60% Discount Rate < + 2%.

SWITZERLAND

, , . CHF . , , .

UK

, . - , , , , . 3. . 3.1. 3.1.1. , , , . , , . 70- , . . .

1. ( ). , (, ), - , , . 2. .


.

52

. ( ) . , , : ( ) . , . , ( ) , . . ( ), ( ) ( ). , . , , . 3. . , , , . - , , . , , : , ( ). , , , : () . , (, ) . , - . ( ). , . . , , , . 3.1.2. (): "" - "" - (flat, whipsaw) - :


.

53

, , 3.1.3. 1. - . ( ).

2. () - ( ), ( ), ( ) ( ). 5 .

3. ( ).

4. .

3.1.4. , , , . . :


.

54

1. . , , . , , , . 2. . . , . , .

: , . , , , . , , , , . ( ) , () . . 3. . , , , .. . , , . . , , , , . . . - , "" , "", "". . 4. . . , . 5. . .


.

55

6. , , . 3.1.5. . - . - . : , , , . . : " - ". : " ".

(Resistance): () , , , . ,

(Support):

() , , , . . . . .


.

56

: , ( ) , .

3.2. :

- - - .

3.2.1. - . CHARTS. : 1. Monthly (M) 2. Weekly (W) 3. Daily (D) 4. :

- Hourly (H) - Semihourly - 15- Quarterly - 5- -

CHARTS:

a) Line


.

57

b) Bar :

High ( ); Last, Close ( ); Open ( ); Low ( ) c) CandleStick ( ) , .

High Close

Open < Close

Open Low

High Open

Close < Open Close Low


.

58

, , (Resistance res), , , (Support sup). Bar ( Open ) , (Close). -, , .

, (sup, res), . (Trend). , . (Reversal Patterns) Head & Shoulders - -.


.

59

. , . Double Top - ()

; ; . Triple top (bottom) ( )


.

60

(Continuation)


.

61

T

H . H. . 3.2.2. M . :

- ( ); - ( ).


.

62

:

(Moving Average) , . . . . Movings ( Simple Moving Average ) ( ) . 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 10 i - n = (1 + 2 + 3 ++ n )/n n - . . . : 9 = 9 14 = 14, 9 14 . Moving 9 14 . . , . , Moving: 4 13 34


.

63

Movings (Weighted Moving Average) 1, 2, 3

123123 123

3 ++++

=PPPWMA

Movings (Exponential Moving Average) 1, 2, 3

13 31

32

-+= kk EMAPEMA

, . . , . . . . (Price Oscillator - OSC) . , , . , , . , OSC S , OSC. : n>m, S. :


.

64

OSC= n - m Buy: OSC> S*Man Sell: OSC< -S*MAn :

- , , . (.. - ).

- , .

- , , , . , , , over- ( ), . , , over- .

- (). - ,

, . . - .

- , . , , .

- , , . , , 2-5% .

- , ; . , ,

:


.

65

(Moving Average Convergence Divegence - MACD) OSC. MACD , . 12- 26- . ( ) 9- . MACD . ( ) . 1 = EMA12 - EMA26 2 =EMA9(EMA12 -EMA26) 3 = 1 2 - 1 2 . . 12 26, 9.


.

66

(Relative Strength Index - RSI) RSI , n, , . ( 100%) ( 0%) RSI. - n . :

CDCURS = ,

D- .

43

21

D+D=D+D=

CDCU

CU . CD .

%1001

11%1001

11

+-+

=

+-=

RSRS

RSRSI

0 100. , 80, 20. : Overbought o/b Oversold o/s. o/b o/s 80 20, 70 30. RSI , .


.

67

(Stochastic oscillator) - n . %K % D : %K = (Ct - Ln )/( Hn - Ln )x100% -

Hn - n Ln - n Ct -

%D( ) - %. Overbought Oversold. , Range.

%K %D

4.


.

68

4.1. . ,

. ,

. -

. . . , . . , "

". ,

3:1. ( ),

: ) , ;

) ; ) ; ) - (break-even point).

, .

, , 10 % .

, . ,

; , .

, .

. " " ,

.

, , .

. ; , , , .

. , : " , ".

: .


.

69

4.2. 50% . , , 10-15% . , , 5% . , , 20-25% . : . " : ". "", 1996. .. " ". "", 1996. " ". " ", 1992. . " ".. , 1999 . . " ". "", 1998. " : ". , "", 1998. . " ". - " - " 1996. . " , ". , "",


Documents

Школа успешного трейдера - 1 курс.pdf