에너지환경 경제학 (5)

에너지환경 경제학 (5)

아주대학교 경제학과 , 에너지시스템학과 , 금융공학협동과정교수 김수덕 ([email protected])

Saul Griffith's kites tap : wind energy

http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/saul_griffith_on_kites_as_the_future_of_renewable_energy.html

RenewableEnergy

Hydrogen

SolarHeat

PV

Bio

WindSmallHyroGeo-

Thermal

MarineEnergy

LFG

Coal Gasification

IGCC

FuelCell

New En-ergy

New and Renewable Energies ｢ New, Renewable Energy Development, Uti-

lization and Promotion Act ｣ 2nd Clause, (Dec. 2004)

Overview

Source: Renewable Information 2009

World Primary Energy Composition (2007)

Shares of energy sources in total global primary en-ergy supply (2008)

Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

에너지원으로서의 신재생에너지의 역할에 대한 검토

전세계 신재생에너지원의 잠재량

각 신재생에너지원의 기술적 잠재량이 2008 년 기준으로 각각 전력 , 열 , 전세계 1 차에너지 공급에 육박하거나 초과하고 있다고 보고하고 있음

<SRREN;Special Report on Renewable Energy Source and Climate Change Mitigation, 2011.5>

World Renewable Energy

Source: Renewable Information 2009

　 Primary Energy

(A)

Re-new-able (B)

B/AWeight of Renewable

Energy (%)

　 Mtoe Mtoe (%) Hydro Geo-ther-mal, Wind SolarMa-rine

Re-new-able Waste

Africa 630.9 304.6 48.3 2.7 0.3 97Lati-nAmerica

551.1 168.3 30.5 34.2 1.6 64.2

Asia 1377 375.2 27.2 5.9 4.3 89.8China 1969.5 241.3 12.3 17.3 2.1 80.6

Non-OECDEu-rope

105.8 10.1 9.6 37.6 1.3 61.1

Form-erSovi-etUnion

1015.6 30.7 3 69.3 1.5 29.2

OECD 5497.1 357.9 6.5 30.2 13.2 56.6

World 12026 1492.2

12.4 17.7 4.9 77.3

World Renewable Energy Growth Rate (1990-2007)

Renewable Energy Promotion TargetsWind power

Solar Biomass Bio-fuels Small Hydro

Total

United Stated

36 bil. gallons (2022)

UK 25GW(2020)

15% of TPES (2020)

Spain 20% of TPES (2020)Germany 18% of TPES (2020)Canada 90% (non-emitting sources) Italy 17% of TPES (2020)Nether-lands

14% of TPES (2020)

Australia 45Twh(2020)

20% of electricity (2020)

Japan 14GW(2020)

Korea 7.3GW(2030)

4.68GW(2030)

0.56GW(2030)

11% of TPEC (2030)

China 150GW (2020)

20GW(2020)

30GW(2020)

15mil tpy (2020)

300GW(2020)

15% of TPEC (2020)

Brazil 2.4GW (2012)

India 17.5 (2012)

20GW(2022)

3.5GW(2012)

20% of diesel &petrol. (2017)

3.4GW(2012)

12.5 of electricity (2012)

Pakistan 5% 14% of electricity (2022)Indonesia 20% of electricity (2023)Thailand 20% of electricity (2022)Vietnam 5% of electricity (2020)Philippines 0.766GW 1.3GW 9GW (2020)Mexico 4.3%

(2012)7.6% of electricity (2012)

Chile 10% (or 3410MW) (2024)Peru 5% of electricity (2013)Egypt 20% of electricity (2020)

Sources:Global Trends in Sustainable Energy In-vestment 2010”, UNEP 2010,

“Renewable 2010 Global Status Report” REN 21 2010,

“Renewable Energy Devel-opment in Emerging Markets” Ar-cadia Market Commentary 2009,

“The UK Re-newable En-ergy Strategy” HM Govern-ment 2009

Renewable Energy Costs


Declining Renewable Energy Production Facility



IPCC SRREN 의 결론 점검

단지 몇몇 분야의 추가적인 고려가 필요하나 기술 및 기간설비의 확충으로 신재생에너지 자원이용이 가능한 지역에서 이를 복합적으로 구성하는데에는 근본적인 기술적 제약이 거의 없을 것 .

고려해야 할 분야로는 송배전망의 기간설비 , 전력생산의 유연성 , 에너지저장기술 , 수요측면의 관리 , 그리고 예측과 운영계획상의 개선 등을 제시하고 신재생에너지 생산비용 , 관련정책 및 환경적 이슈 , 사회적 측면의 이슈 등이 있음 .

과거의 경험으로 볼 때 , 경제적 유인이 제대로 주어지는 경우 , 기술개발이 기존의 설비를 다양한 형태로 대체해 왔고 , 이는 신재생분야에서도 적용될 것 .

Domestic Promotion Result Survey : FIT

kWh/Inv. Cost

Technical Advancements (ex: Wind)


Wind PowerWind Power Generation Calcu-lation

Power Prod.Wind Speed

Probability Power Curve

Wind Distribution

Power Curve

Wind Probability Distribution and Power Curve of Wind Mill

Wind Project - SaemanKeum

Source: Prefeasibility test of Saemankeum Proj., KDI, 2009

Photovoltaic

East Sun Power Gen. Co.- 22MW, 0.7Mil M2 , US 200Mil.


신재생에너지의 특성 및 계통운영

피크타임의 간헐성 (B) 뿐만 아니라 A 부분과 같이 전력수요가 최저수준인 경우에 돌연한 풍력발전을 통한 전력생산의 문제가 발생

풍력전원의 음의 가격ERCOT (Electricity Reliabil-ity Council Of Texas) 내 풍력발전의 구성이 매우 큰 West Texas 지역에서 발생한 풍력발전이 음의 가격을 나타낸 사례이는 전력이 쉽게 저장할 수 없고 , 송전상의 제약이 발생하는 경우에 나타나는 문제로 간헐성과 비급선성에서 발생한 대표적인 사례2008 년 중반 ERCOT 은 zonal congestion managements prices 를 도입하고 , 송전망을 개선하는 등의 방법으로 문제가 개선되고 있는 상황이라고 함에도 불구하고 발생하는 현상임을 감안할 때 국내 전력계통운용상 시사하는 바가 크다 .

풍력전원의 음의 가격 (ERCOT West, 2010


신재생에너지원의 간헐성과 계통 운영상 시사점

우리나라는 단독계통으로 정출력 운전을 하는 원자력발전기의 점유율이 높기 때문에 신재생에너지원이 계통에 미치는 영향은 다른 어떤 나라의 계통보다도 크게 나타남 .

재생에너지원의 출력 간헐성에 의한 주차수 안정도 문제는 에너지 저장장치를 활용하여 해결할 수 있지만 , 아직까지 에너지 저장장치의 가격이 높음 .

저장장치의 활용보다는 풍력발전기 등 신재생에너지원의 출력변화율에 대한 규제를 실시하여 출력변동성 자체를 줄이는 방법이 있음

Power Market & Renewable power

Wind, etc

Hourly Load

SMP

Producer Surplus

LNG Power Plants

Coal Power Plants

Nuclear

Results of Simulation(1)Impact on the power load peak by wind power generation (2010~2011)

Results of Simulation: Wind (Year 2030)

1400

4000

S1

S2

S3

S4

Source: Korea East-west Power Corporation, An Analysis of Renewable Power Facility and Its Peak Time Impact on Overall Power Mix, Final Report, 2009. 01

Results of Simulation: PV (Year 2030)

2400

2800

S1

S2

S3

S4

Source: Korea East-west Power Corporation, An Analysis of Renewable Power Facility and Its Peak Time Impact on Overall Power Mix, Final Report, 2009. 01

Wind Power Generation Forecast Considering Uncertainties

ANEMOS (Development of A next generation wind re-source forecasting system for the large-scale integration of onshore and offShore wind farms)

WP-1: Data collection & evaluation of needs (OVERSPEED) WP-2: Off-line evaluation of prediction techniques (CENER) WP-3: Development of statistical models (DTU-IMM) WP-4: Development of physical models (RISOE) WP-5: Off-shore prediction (UNIV-OLDENBURG) WP-6: Anemos prediction platform development (ARMINES) WP-7: Installation for on-line operation (END USERS) WP-8: Evaluation of on-line operation (UC3M) WP-9: Overall assessment and Dissemination (RAL) WP-10: Coordination (ARMINES)

HONEYMOON Project (a High resolution Numerical wind Energy Model for On- and Offshore forecasting using ensemble predictions)

http://www.cordis.lu/eesd/home.html http://www.cordis.lu/eesd/src/proj_eng.htm

WILMAR (Wind Power Integration in Liberalised Electricity Mar-kets)

Wind Power Generation Forecast Considering UncertaintiesOther Related Researches Akpinar, E.K. and Akpinar, S., 2004, "A statistical analysis of wind

speed data used in installation of wind energy conversation system.", Energy conversation and Management, In Press, Corrected Proof, Available online 2004

Dowell, A.C. and C.E. Oram, 1996, “A hysteresis-free wind pump, Wind Energy Conversion 1996, Mechanical Engineering Publications Lim-ited”, 75~80

AWEA, 2003, "Global Wind Energy Market Report" http://www.awea.org EWEA, 2003, "WIND ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT" EWEA, 2003, "WIND POWER TARGETS FOR EUROPE: 75,000 MW by

2010," http://www.ewea.org EWEA, 2003, "WIND POWER TECHNOLOGY" EWEA, 2003, “Wind Energy - The Facts Vol.2 Costs & Price EWEA, 2004, Wind Force 12. Jaramillo, O.A. and M.A. Borja, 2004, Wind speed analysis in La Ven-

tosa, Mexico; a bimodal probality distribution case, Renewable Energy, Volume 29, 1613~1630.

Wind Power Monthly, 2001, Vol. 17, No. 9 Wind Power Monthly, 2002, “The Windindicator”, http://www.wpm.-

co.nz Wind Power Monthly, 2002, Vol. 18, No. 5

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1990

298

2020

813

Projected Emis-sions (BAU)

2005

594

△21% △27% △30%

642569590

Compared to BAU

Unit: million ton

2 31Emission Prospect/3 Mitigation Scenarios

30% reduction target by 2020 compared to BAU (Nov. 17, 2009)

National Mid-term GHG Mitigation Target

15 Source: Ministry of Environment

• Raise the share of NRE up to the same level of those of the US and Japan

• Mandatory NRE portfolio standard and develop-ment of new NREs

Geothermal : 3.8%others : 5.9%

Waste33.4%

Bioenergy30.6%

Hydro 4.0%

Wind: 12.8%Photovoltaic : 4.1%

Geothermal and others: 9.7%

WASTE74.8%

Hydro.16.4%

Bioenergy : 6.0%Wind : 1.6%

Photovoltaics : 0.5%others: 0.7%

GeothermalOceanPhotovoltaichydroSolarWindBioWaste

’07 ’30 ’07 ’30

’07 ’30 ’07 ’30

0.4%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.6%

1.4%

3.4%

3.7%

Photovoltaic Wind

Bio-fuel Geother-mal

80

3,504

199

7,301

1,874

36,487

110

5,606

capacity MW)

(heat supply, Thousand Gcal)

(capacity MW)

(heat supply thousand Gcal)

’07 ’30

RPS(Renewable Portfolio Standard)It is believed that Renewable energy can supply a significant portion of the energy

needs and create public benefits, including environmental improvement, increased

fuel diversity, national security, and economic development. These benefits, however,

are often not reflected in the prices paid for energy, placing renewable energy at a

severe disadvantage when competing against fossil fuels and nuclear power.

A policy that requires those who sell electricity to have a certain percentage of "re-

newable"* power in their mix. These policies often start around 1-5% in the first year

and require an increasing percentage of renewables in each energy supplier's mix, of-

ten aiming for a goal of 4-20% in about 10 years.

Those who received that obligation may or may not supply renewable power. If they

decide not to supply renewable power have to buy the amount due at the market to

avoid penalty. - Tradable Renewable Energy Credit [TREC] or Tradable Credit [TC]

market will determine the premium for renewable energies => Market Mechanism!

FIT(Feed-in Tariff) vs. RPS(Renewable Portfolio Stan-dards)

① Guaran-teed Price ② Price or

NRE pre-miumdeter-mined

FITs

② Quan-tity De-termined

Supply Curve

RPS

① Obligation

Supply CurveP P

Q Q

EU 27 Countries’ Renewable Energy Policy

Source: Renewables 2010, Global Status Report, REN21, 2010

Other Countries’ Renewable Energy Policy


Developing Countries’ Renewable Energy Pol-icy


OutlineIntroduction Motivation Review on the Controversy over Nuclear Energy Nuclear Policy Changes After Fukushima Recent Nuclear Policy of Korea, Japan, and China

Energy Mix and Nuclear in Power Sector for 3 North-East Asian CountriesA Simple Calculation of Emission Reduction by Nu-clear Power A Simple Calculation of Emission Reduction by Nuclear

PowerOverview of China’s Nuclear Plan Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China China’s Nuclear Plants, Earthquake Zone Locational Distribution of Nuclear Reactors Regional Wind Direction

Concluding Remarks

MotivationNuclear power, as energy security and also as an emission-free energy source has been paid high attention by Northeast Asian countries, Korea, Japan and China, Current total operable nuclear capacity of the three

countries accounts for 20% of the world total When additional reactors under construction, planned

and proposed altogether are considered, it will account for almost 32%.

After Fukushima accident, controversy over nuclear energy in addition to its safety is-sue has emerged as a hot issue again.

Previous Discussions on this issue (Cons)Lee et al. (1996) argues that USA needs 1000 new nuclear reactors to replace all coal

power plants at a minimum cost of $5 trillion, still leaving five sixths of the greenhouse gas emissions untouched, as electri-cal generation only accounts for one sixth of the problem.

Estimated true costs of electric power they provided show that of nuclear power the highest ranging from 12.9 cents/kWh to 17.9 cents/kWh while those of coal and solar ranges from 8.1 cents/kWh to 12 cents/kWh, from 8.04 cents/kWh to 20.04 cents/kWh, respectively.

Greenpeace (2008) report concludes that Nuclear power is not a part of the climate solution but an ex-

pensive and dangerous distraction that it can only be reached by employing renewable energy and energy efficiency.

Source: Lee Susan, Greens Austin, 1996. True Costs of Nuclear Power, Synthesis/Regeneration 11. Greenpeace, Nuclear Power Undermining Climate Protection, Greenpeace International, 2008. Also available at www.greenpeace.org

Previous Discussions on this issue (Cons)A comparison of the levelized cost of nu-clear power is conducted by Lucas (2011) applying those of coal and natural gas based on MIT (2009), updated construction costs from U.S. DOE (2010) and carbon tax of $25 per ton CO2. The resulting estimates for nuclear, coal and gas ranges

from 8.7 cents/kWh to 10.5 cents/kWh, from 6.5 cents/kWh to 9.6 cents/kWh and 6.2 cents/kWh to 6.7 cents/kWh, respectively, concluding nuclear as the most cost ineffective power source.

Lucas W. Davis, Prospects for U.S. Nuclear Power After Fukushima, Working Paper, Energy Institute at Haas, 2011.

Previous Discussions on this issue (Pros)EC report explicitly includes quantifiable external costs for selected electricity gen-

eration technologies to have social cost estimates. In this process potential damages on climate change

are also said to be considered. Resulting total costs with MCDA (Multi Criteria Decision Making Analysis) ranking, however, show nuclear power least expensive choice.

Nuclear energy ranks lower than renewable due to the benefit from its much improved economic performance.

Coal technologies perform worse than centralized natu-ral gas options.

Source: European Commission, New Energy Externalities Development for Sustainability (NEEDS), Joint Research Centre (JRC), 2009. Also available at cordis.europa.eu.Jim Lovelock, 2004. Nuclear power is the only green solution, The Independent, May 24.

Previous Discussions on this issue (Pros)Sailor (2000) analyzes the safety and eco-nomics of nuclear power and suggests that nuclear power would take a major roll to cope with climate changes under the as-sumption of securing safety. Lovelock (2004) explains serious situation of global warming with various examples, and concludes nuclear power as the only breakthrough. Zhou (2010) argues that nuclear power is a relatively clean energy source without green-house gas emission, so that nuclear development has a promising future in China.

Source: William C. Sailor, 2000. A Nuclear Solution to Climate Change? , Science Vol. 288 No. 5469, 1177-1178. Yun Zhou, 2010. Why is China going nuclear? , Energy Policy 39, Issue 2, 771-781.

Nuclear Policy Changes After Fukushima

In Germany, government has announced a reversal of policy that will see all the coun-try's nuclear power plants phased out by 2022.In France, nuclear power plants are de-signed to withstand an earthquake twice as strong as the 1000-year event calculated for each site.Switzerland suspended approval for three new plants and Bulgaria prepared to freeze a nuclear project.Poland announced building its first reactor.Romania also decided to build two addi-tional reactorsBrazil is building its third plant.

Source: IEA

Recent Nuclear Policy of Korea, Japan, and ChinaOn 22nd September 2011, Korean President Lee Myung-Bak delivered a keynote speech at the high-level meeting of UN on nuclear safety and security.He said that the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power

Plant, which dealt a huge blow to confidence in nuclear safety, should not be the cause to renounce nuclear en-ergy.

He also said the use of nuclear energy is inevitable as it is one of the best alternatives capable of meeting grow-ing global power demand and of helping solve the prob-lem of climate change.

but the regional cooperation should be strengthened as a nuclear accident is transactional.

Recent Nuclear Policy of Korea, Japan, and ChinaJapan's Prime Minister, Naoto Kan, said on July 13, 2011, that he wanted his country to learn from its ongoing crisis and become less

reliant on nuclear energy. He told at a news conference that the nuclear risks are too high and

renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and biomass should eventually replace nuclear as a new pillar of Japan's energy supply, along with conservation.

Current Japanese Prime Minister, Yoshihiko Noda, however, was determined to restart idled reactors by summer 2012, adding that it was ‘impossible’ for the country to get by without them or to con-

sider a quick phase out of nuclear energy. Mr. Noda's determination to preserve nuclear power, at least in the

short run, stands in contrast to the position of his predecessor, and against mounting popular opposition to nuclear power in Japan.11

Source: Wall Street Journal on September 21, 2011

Recent Nuclear Policy of Korea, Japan, and ChinaIn December 2011 the National Energy Ad-ministration (NEA) said that China will make nuclear energy the foundation of its

power-generation system in the next 10 to 20 years, adding as much as 300 GWe of nuclear capacity over

that period. Two weeks earlier the NDRC(National De-velopment and Reform Commission) vice di-rector said that China would not swerve from its goal of greater reliance

on nuclear power. The former head of the NEA(Nuclear Energy Agency)

said that full-scale construction of nuclear plants would resume in March 2012. Source: Nuclear Power in China, Updated December 2011, WNA, Available at www.world-nucle-

ar.org. Accessed Jan. 19. 2012.

Ranking of World Nuclear Power Capacity (Unit : MWe net)

OPERABLEOPERABLE

+UNDER CONSTRUCTION

OPERABLE

+UNDER CONSTRUCTION

+ PLANNED

OPERABLE

+ UNDER CONSTRUCTION

+ PLANNED

+ PROPOSED

1 USA 101,421 USA 102,639 USA 109,839 China 222,971

2 France 63,130 France 64,850 China 99,971 USA 148,439

3 Japan 44,642 Japan 47,398 France 66,570 Russia 76,044

4 Russia 23,084 China 39,981 Japan 61,170 India 72,985

5 Germany 20,339 Russia 32,044 Russia 48,044 Japan 67,930

6 Korea 18,785 Korea 24,585 Korea 32,985 France 67,670

7 Ukraine 13,168 Germany 20,339 India 23,985 Ukraine 37,868

8 Canada 12,679 Canada 14,179 Germany 20,339 Korea 32,985

9 China 11,271 Ukraine 13,168 Canada 17,479 U.K. 29,425

10 U.K. 10,745 U.K. 10,745 U.K. 17,425 Canada 21,279

total world 371,584 World 432,918 World 605,013 world 993,318

Source: : WNA, World Nuclear Power Capacity, Aug 1st 2011.

ENERGY MIX AND NUCLEAR IN POWER SECTOR FOR 3 NORTH-EAST ASIAN COUNTRIES

49 /32

Korean Government’s Policy for Power Mix Change in Early 1980’s

• Dependency on imported energy varies monthly from 95% to 97%.

• Securing energy stability by reducing this dependency on im-ported energy is one of the most important energy policies for Their government.

• A Drastic Change in energy mix in power sector can be observed in the figure (next slide) with an oil market shock in 1978. – Oil power generation took 72.51% of total electricity generation in Korea when oil

price hike of 173.9% hit the world energy market. – Average retail electricity price went 212.89% during this period of time.– Korean government decided to replace petroleum product powered power plants

with nuclear and coal. – Following table shows this drastic change and future plan.

Hydro Coal Oil LNG Nuclear New and Renewable

1978 0.00% 12.76% 75.08% 4.79% 7.38% 0.00%1980 0.17% 11.69% 77.81% 0.99% 9.34% 0.00%1990 1.56% 20.90% 16.75% 11.54% 49.25% 0.00%2000 0.61% 38.00% 8.86% 10.89% 41.64% 0.00%2010 0.59% 41.85% 3.57% 21.69% 31.36% 0.95%2020 1.06% 36.93% 0.52% 10.54% 44.05% 6.90%2024 1.35% 30.96% 0.48% 9.73% 48.54% 8.95%

Trend in Energy Mix Change in Power Sector, Ko-rea

Korean Government’s Policy for Power Mix Change in Early 1980’s

there were another oil price fluctuations with crude oil price continu-ously increasing from 20$/bbl in 2000 to over $90/bbl in 2008, the av-erage price of electricity had not changed much as the figure shows.

Source: Korea Ministry of Knowledge Economy, The 5rd Electric Power Demand-Supply plan, 2010

Current and Future Power Mix of Japanese Power Sec-tor

The rate of self-sufficiency is 17.7% on its primary energy demand.The major source of power generation in Japan during 1980s was oil. but it has been changed so that oil-fired power generation has continuously decreased since 1980 and

is expected be only 5% in 2019 Oil power being replaced by nuclear, gas and coal.

After the earthquake and tsunami, an alternative for the future power generation mix, although the future

energy mix in Japanese power sector is still under discussion after Fukushima accident.

Number of Reactors Capacity (MWe) Percentage (%)Operating 51 44,642 65.7%

Under construction 2 2,756 4.1%Planned 10 13,772 20.3%

Proposed 5 6,760 9.9%Total 68 69,730 100.0%

Nuclear Reactors in Japan (Unit: MWe)

Source: [i]WNA Nuclear Power in Japan, Available at www.world-nuclear.org. Accessed Sept. 2011.

http://www.world-nuclear.org/

Current and Future Power Mix of Japanese Power Sec-tor

Japanese government has done some efforts to reduce oil portion of overall power generation.

Source: EIA Energy balance data 2010, IEA 2010 outlook

Current and Future Power Mix of Chinese Power Sec-torChina is endowed with a lot of coal resources holding an estimated 114.5 billion short tons of recoverable coal re-

serves, 14 percent of the world’s total reserves, the third-largest in the world.

But she became a net oil importer in 1993 a net coal importer in 2007

with her real economic growth rate of over 9% per year. Trend in Energy Mix Change in Power Sector, ChinaYear coal Gas Oil Nuclear Hydro Wind

1978 65.32% 0.00% 16.32% 0.00% 18.36% 0.00%1980 59.42% 0.25% 19.07% 0.00% 21.23% 0.00%1990 72.48% 0.45% 6.27% 0.00% 20.80% 0.00%2000 79.19% 0.43% 2.39% 1.26% 16.69% 0.05%2009 78.95% 1.39% 0.21% 1.92% 16.81% 0.73%2020 73.91% 1.89% 0.82% 5.75% 14.52% 3.11%2030 75.11% 1.52% 0.55% 5.86% 13.35% 3.61%2035 76.29% 1.40% 0.45% 5.85% 12.35% 3.66%

Nuclear Reactors China (Unit: MWe)Number of Reactors Capacity (MWe) Percentage (%)

Operating 14 11,271 4.0%Under construction 26 28,710 10.1%

Planned 50 58,320 20.5%Proposed 116 186,160 65.4%

Total 206 284,461 100.0%

Sourcei WNA Nuclear Power in Japan, Available at www.world-nuclear.org. Accessed Sept. 2011.

Current and Future Power Mix of Chinese Power Sector

China now faces a great challenge to meet her increas-ing energy demand with securing sustainable energy supply. Source: EIA Energy balance data 2010, IEA 2010 outlook

A Simple Calculation of Emission Reduction by Nuclear Power

56 /32

A Simple CalculationAssuming that a 1000MW fossil power plant burns about 2 million tce of coal annually. For a 1000MW LNG power plant, 827,632 tons of LNG is assumed to be consumed a year so that the amount of CO2 emission of burning one ton of LNG can be calculated

This is equivalent to the capacity factor of 61.7%, 65.3% for coal and LNG power plant, respectively2)

Result

Korea China Japan

Total Capacity of Nuclear Power (Operating, Un-

der Construction, Planned and Pro-

posed )

32,985MW 222,971MW 67930MW

Coal

Required Amount

65.97 million tce 445.94 million tce 139.46 million tce

Additional CO2 emission 41.56 MT CO2 280.94 MT CO2 87.86 MT CO2

LNGRequired Amount

27.30 million ton 184.54 million ton 56.22 million ton

Additional CO2 emission 20.42 MT CO2 138.03 MT CO2 42.05 MT CO2

Additional CO2 Expected by Replacing Nuclear with Coal and LNG

CO2 Emission of Top 11 Countries, 2008 (Unit: Mil. TCO2 )

Rank Region/Country/Economy

Total CO2 emissionsfrom fuel combus-

tion(Mil. Ton CO2)

Percent-age (%)

Cumulative Percentage

(%)

1People's Rep. of

China 6 508.2 22.15 22.152 United States 5 595.9 19.05 41.203 European Union - 27 3 849.5 13.10 54.304 Russian Federation 1 593.8 5.42 59.725 India 1 427.6 4.86 64.586 Japan 1 151.1 3.92 68.507 Germany 803.9 2.74 71.248 Canada 550.9 1.88 73.119 United Kingdom 510.6 1.74 74.85

10 Islamic Rep. of Iran 505.0 1.72 76.5711 Korea 501.3 1.71 78.27

Source: : IEA, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion, IEA Statistics, OECD/IEA, 2010.

ADDITIONAL REQUIREMENTS TO BE CONSIDERED

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Overview of China’s Nuclear PlanAmong the 5.469 million tU of uranium resource re-ported to be available in the world in 2007, only less than 1% of which is distributed in China (WNA). - China’s dependence on imported uranium resource will be another issue of energy security. A fast nuclear reactor utilizes uranium 60 times more efficiently than a normal reactor. A fast nuclear reactor is reported to be capable of reducing to-

tal radio toxicity of nuclear waste through the reduced use of uranium.

China can reduce its reliance on uranium imports. The first fast nuclear reactor named China Experimental Fast

Reactor (CEFR) is located at China Institute of Atomic Energy (CIAE) outside of Beijing.

It achieved first criticality on July 21th in 2010.Source: : WNA, Fast Neutron Reactors, updated November 2011, Available at www.world-nucle-ar.org. Accessed Jan. 2012

Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China

China has started her strong expansion plan of inland nuclear power plant with a half of the planned nuclear power plants to be located in inland.

Nanyang Nuclear Power Station1.0GW*6

Wuhu Nuclear Power Station1.0GW*4

Source: : China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.

200m

160m

China’s Earthquake Zone

Red dots are earthquake-prone areas, the blue cir-cles are the seismic zone, and their radius is 200km.

Locational Distribution of Nuclear Reactors

Source: : WNA, Nuclear Power in China

Regional Wind Direction

Wind Field on April (2010)Source: : Eunju Min, Yanping Jang, HyunGoo Kim, Suduk Kim(2012), The Journal of Energy and De-velopment, Vol. 37, No.2, 2012, forthcoming

CONCLUDING REMARKS

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Concluding RemarksView of long term energy mix in the three Northeast Asian countries. In this process, lessons from Korea and Japan in early 1980’s to

reduce the dependency on imported energy by diversifying the energy mix including nuclear energy in power sector were briefly examined.

The choice of nuclear power for China in terms of her long-term energy security is discussed while nuclear safety prob-lems of her own and neighboring countries are also considered by identifying the seismic zone, nuclear power plant sites and regional wind field.

Further discussions on the need for institutionaliza-tion of a sophisticated legal framework for securing nuclear energy safety among the three countries fol-low. It is recommended to setup so called a ‘Northeast Asian Nu-

clear Council’ which may be similar to that of ‘EURATOM’ in Eu-rope in the beginning process to enhance the mutual coopera-tion for the safety of future nuclear power.

Reference1. China Nuclear Information. Available at www.heneng.net.2. Coal power plant is assumed to require 355g/kWh of standard quality coal while that of LNG

require 144.59g/kWh of LNG. KEPCO unpublished manuscript 2010, Stan Mark Kaplan, Jan. 2010, Displacing Coal with Generation from Existing Natural Gas-Fired Power Plants, CRS Re-port for Congress, Congressional Research Service, 7-5700.

3. Defined by the IAEA Advisory Group on Nuclear Security, 17 August 2009, See IAEA document GOV/2009/54-GC(53)/18

4. EIA Energy balance data 2010, IEA 2010 outlook5. Eunju Min, Yanping Jang, HyunGoo Kim, Suduk Kim(2012), The Journal of Energy and Envi-

ronment submitted.6. European Commission, New Energy Externalities Development for Sustainability (NEEDS),

Joint Research Centre (JRC), 2009. Also available at cordis.europa.eu.7. Greenpeace, Nuclear Power Undermining Climate Protection, Greenpeace International, 2008.

Also available at www.greenpeace.org.8. IAEA, Safety Fundamentals No. SF-1, http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/publications/PDF/

Pub1273_web.pdf, 20069. IEA, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion, IEA Statistics, OECD/IEA, 2010.10. International Energy Agency11. Jim Lovelock, 2004. Nuclear power is the only green solution, The Independent, May 24.12. Korea Ministry of Knowledge Economy, The 5rd Electric Power Demand-Supply plan, 201013. Lee Susan, Greens Austin, 1996. True Costs of Nuclear Power, Synthesis/Regeneration 11. 14. Lucas W. Davis, Prospects for U.S. Nuclear Power After Fukushima, Working Paper, Energy In-

stitute at Haas, 2011.15. Nuclear Power in China, Updated December 2011, WNA, Available at www.world-nuclear.org.

Accessed Jan. 19. 2012.16. Nuclear Power in China, Updated December 2011, WNA, Available at www.world-nuclear.org.

Accessed Jan. 19. 2012.17. Fast Neutron Reactors, updated November 2011, Available at www.world-nuclear.org. Ac-

cessed Jan. 2012. 18. Wall Street Journal on September 21, 201119. Wall Street Journal on September 21, 201120. William C. Sailor, 2000. A Nuclear Solution to Climate Change? , Science Vol. 288 No. 5469,

1177-1178. 21. WNA Nuclear Power in Japan, Available at www.world-nuclear.org. Accessed Sept. 2011.22. WNA, Nuclear Power in China, Aug 1st 2011.23. Yun Zhou, 2010. Why is China going nuclear? , Energy Policy 39, Issue 2, 771-781

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