交大北區校友會-房地產發展趨勢

1. 2011 ECFA 2011122

2.

1.GDP 2009 12.819

2010 13.924

2010Q3 62.33 36.48

1.19

2. VS.

3. VS.

M VS.

4. 11.5

5.

3.

1.

2.

3. 10

4.

5.

6. ECFA

6. GNP

13. (WTI) 68~90 /

14. 11 ( )

15. G7 - 5

18. -2

35. / 2

36. / 5

37. 2000-2010 8, 925.09 8,188 4,591 8,506 7,824 6,548 6,140 5,891 4,453 5,551 4,739 24,156.97 21,873 14,388 27,813 19,965 14,876 14,230 12,576 9,321 11,397 15,096 2,707.10 3,277 1,821 5,262 2,676 1,161 1,267 1,497 1,358 1,246 2,075 2011. 1/17 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000

39. M1B

41. 196.71 -2.00 85.21 49.16 91-99 11 144.81 14.42 77.36 43.41 91-98 12,426.41 6,813.68 51,268.48 307,411 99 11 10,252.70 7,955.08 49,095.58 295,559 98 10,628.83 8,157.05 47,087.03 279,779 97 10,568.78 8,483.98 46,287.76 262,088 96 8,465.45 8,059.76 43,528.55 259,420 95 6,701.32 7,362.13 39,629.36 247,095 94 5,086.38 7,103.73 34,826.62 232,565 93 4,203.96 6,900.16 30,388.81 217,469 92 4,188.09 6,952.83 27,681.88 206,098 91 5,078.37 7,807.17 26,232.76 201,607 90

42. GDP

1. 5 1,268.48 2010 GDP 13 2,940 /GDP 38.57

2. 5 1,268.48 6,813.68 /GDP 43.69

3. 5 1,268.48

6,813.68 12,426.41 /GDP 53.04

43.

1.

7 508.57 /30 7,411

22.94

2.

7 508.57 /19 5,654

36.04

3. 3 5

44.

1. QE2 QE3

2.

3. ->

4. CEPA

5.

2010 26 1.70 2

6.

->->

7. ->

45. 52.94 2005 50.64 2010 77.45 2010.12/31 88.99 2011.1/19 93.99 2005-2010 28.6 1989 17.31 1990 22.26 1990 152 1978 12.7 1980 32 1979-1980 334 1972 2.59 1974 11.251 1973-1974 % ( )

46. 69.47 2005 41.60 2010 70.50 -0.33 1.21 1.8

47. 142,471147,146 109,4841 75,870 -86,64851,180 -35,468 7,841,302 7,805,834 23,119,772 98 130,596-135,474106,270-29,2047,541,6457,512,44922,958,360 96 75,002 90,488 77,771116,44690,102 124,120-166,323116,831-49,4927,413,8887,364,39622,790,250 95 45,131-220,89138,635-182,2587,086,7246,904,46622,453,080 91 81,535 68,078 225,723159,991173,658 49,177-267,25824,389-242,8677,025,0356,782,16822,339,739 90 113,14233,403129,604163,0076,022,1396,185,14621,683,316 86 157,856 188,461 155,536158,063182,921 152,205-17,200102,99285,7925,896,4215,982,21321,471,448 85 101,399-148,299254,916106,6175,224,3365,330,95320,752,494 81 90,914 104,234 92,578140,520220,446 72,016-63,078136,23373,1555,118,7435,191,89820,556,842 80 99,619 106,214-114,1154,758,9544,644,83919,672,612 76 (e)=(c)-(d) (d) (c)=(a)-(b) (b) (a) ( ) ( )

48. 79,351 69,49662,757 53,249-109,486 29,034 -80,452 3,673,648 3,593,196 10,232,278 98 77,749-130,57272,975-67,5973,511,6793,444,08210,107,903 96 37,946 44,300 40,91860,59372,126 65,923-125,08775,122-50,8923,435,5963,384,70410,044,006 95 23,856-138,00613,345-124,6613,272,3023,147,6419,762,938 91 36,968 24,744 123,64078,091110,409 26,128-160,35611,089-149,2673,231,0073,081,7409,683,378 90 44,80672,29338,907111,2002,667,6852,778,8859,252,993 86 53,636 65,838 52,27871,22880,577 61,17842,45436,02478,4782,612,8092,691,2879,131,334 85 30,232-70,74488,07917,3352,372,5332,389,8688,808,679 81 40,168 40,881 45,36675,767144,482 25,183-61,34545,074-16,2712,351,4192,335,1488,728,448 80 43,909-123,14345,805-129,4692,175,7602,046,2918,170,001 76 (e)=(c)-(d) (d) (c)=(a)-(b) (b) (a) ( ) ( )

49. 22,017 30,21812,349 11,795-52,121 9,423 -42,698 1,805,580 1,762,882 5,763,591 98 24,318-83,04618,596-64,4501,763,4181,698,9685,740,700 96 16,394 15,647 16,09624,68416,112 21,306-85,30918,008-67,3011,739,5291,672,2285,726,543 95 11,060-105,4478,979-96,4681,669,7991,573,3315,669,529 91 24,159 18,488 33,57133,84138,474 16,668-116,8296,589-110,2401,659,0501,548,8105,645,982 90 40,721-151,92436,919-115,0051,530,8111,415,8065,506,430 86 63,737 65,828 61,60237,07858,882 53,846-144,04532,453-111,5921,491,1971,379,6055,453,610 85 45,037-99,046100,5581,5121,225,2181,226,7305,227,214 81 22,067 26,728 20,43530,06142,004 26,251-37,66648,69311,0271,183,1891,194,2165,159,201 80 22,926022,247-27,4371,099,1031,071,6664,983,204 76 (e)=(c)-(d) (d) (c)=(a)-(b) (b) (a) ( ) ( )

50. 26,15933,898 2,859 9,70750,961 11,360 62,321 2,154,020 2,216,341 6,446,720 98 26,55818,80123,12741,9282,101,5712,143,4996,441,302 96 22,873 28,705 22,45028,9335,099 34,58617,60621,49839,1042,075,5422,114,6466,438,142 95 12,7998,70814,93423,6421,976,2681,999,9106,424,494 91 21,997 22,068 67,33039,78827,740 12,6671006,5926,6921,963,2911,969,9836,412,648 90 25,661117,61444,606162,2201,656,7201,818,9406,312,814 86 36,887 50,927 35,46248,17442,826 34,098111,86232,540144,4021,626,6411,771,0436,273,946 85 23,55741,59458,26199,8551,470,2771,570,1326,103,630 81 26,693 32,380 29,26638,45138,503 18,65340,53940,30280,8411,449,3311,530,1726,059,816 80 30,07711,99634,98839,9291,334,5171,374,4465,896,664 76 (e)=(c)-(d) (d) (c)=(a)-(b) (b) (a) ( ) ( )

51. 51,83440,481 27,248 35,879-21,630 16,191 -5,439 2,350,125 2,344,686 6,481,081 98 45,363-24,40152,47118,0702,238,5232,256,5936,427,284 96 13,140 19,453 16,57032,81231,057 33,338-20,69749,31728,6202,194,6222,223,2426,399,337 95 8,606-45,0834,918-40,1652,137,9312,097,7666,283,302 91 14,971 11,110 74,49944,90456,676 11,697-57,7655,175-52,5902,111,7712,059,1816,244,054 90 18,708107,09416,823123,9171,759,4661,883,3836,019,028 86 18,455 25,025 20,85838,73927,081 24,12080,06415,32595,3891,739,2741,834,6635,960,673 85 11,720-18,21836,10917,8911,655,8261,673,7175,858,419 81 27,628 23,995 33,81555,489104,516 10,833-16,45622,4405,9841,634,9851,640,9695,825,270 80 34,711-123,14327,630-72,9351,507,6761,434,7415,437,981 76 (e)=(c)-(d) (d) (c)=(a)-(b) (b) (a) ( ) ( )

52. 69,977 58,575 49,018 45,913-95,164 21,254 -73,910 3,218,8383,144,928 8,848,184 98 66,799-109,67764,638-55,0393,074,1423,019,1038,752,649 96 30,496 37,068 33,56351,32560,630 57,534-106,07866,373-39,7053,008,9072,969,2028,701,131 95 20,279-119,02910,021-109,0082,878,9032,769,8958,467,355 91 29,066 20,078 111,66267,80098,531 22,216-137,3418,826-128,5152,841,0922,712,5778,397,983 90 36,79192,76130,415123,1762,325,9172,449,0938,012,869 86 41,367 50,649 40,54660,87567,800 50,11466,55424,24390,7972,282,7802,373,5777,905,328 85 23,335-52,05469,04616,9922,099,6422,116,6347,633,447 81 35,743 34,823 41,44369,411136,363 19,455-46,82435,972-10,8522,080,0522,069,2007,566,329 80 40,948-123,14340,538-114,4761,920,7931,806,3177,046,025 76 (e)=(c)-(d) (d) (c)=(a)-(b) (b) (a) ( ) ( )

53. 16,542 15,859 15,978 8,475-83,554 5,849 -77,705 914,747 837,042 2,635,761 98 16,442-89,62812,820-76,808881,234804,4262,606,794 96 10,216 10,205 10,00813,93020,372 11,936-87,11011,454-75,656865,121789,4652,587,828 95 6,959-94,5236,460-88,063821,884733,8212,508,495 91 16,283 11,007 17,59518,89036,441 8,869-98,0352,769-95,266815,081719,8152,485,968 90 30,346-137,16724,469-112,698758,175645,4772,349,722 86 46,192 42,953 44,16123,89048,545 41,788-119,90218,161-101,741727,107625,3662,303,762 85 30,361-81,99271,918-10,074534,275524,2012,112,465 81 11,692 016,289 10,48517,30140,890 15,912-36,68636,300-386506,303505,9172,061,036 80 12,352013,008-26,698463,755437,0571,898,597 76 (e)=(c)-(d) (d) (c)=(a)-(b) (b) (a) ( ) ( )

54. 16,980 15,370 3, 669 5,68620,396 5,877 26,273 981,478 1,007,751 2,770,887 98 13,30019,32912,95432,283943,623975,9062,764,868 96 12,035 18,089 11,62214,5385,693 21,81419,90911,19331,102930,538961,6402,759,881 95 6,02519,2558,49727,752878,202905,9542,742,905 91 14,220 11,530 31,51221,00717,933 6,94513,2543,26816,522872,430888,9522,731,415 90 15,54949,87226,18876,060733,330809,3902,663,302 86 19,629 26,146 18,63623,30022,634 21,43451,98217,06469,046714,869783,9152,641,749 85 9,56529,58526,63056,215629,604685,8192,552,487 81 12,420 15,788 14,51118,86825,566 6,39827,78517,94045,725621,691667,4162,528,578 80 15,06011,99617,82126,843565,991592,8342,425,942 76 (e)=(c)-(d) (d) (c)=(a)-(b) (b) (a) ( ) ( )

55. 14,6109,367 -8,271 9,63766,677 6,288 72,965 896,453 969,418 2,607,428 98 12,39870,80613,11883,924863,821947,7452,629,269 96 4,523 7,081 4,4089,311-312 7,10676,19612,49988,695852,622941,3172,632,242 95 3,50170,0561,71271,768835,220906,9882,641,856 91 4,847 4,433 7,9309,4825,686 3,57162,2121,96964,181830,582894,7632,633,802 90 5,26952,0765,14757,223796,909854,1322,598,493 86 4,529 6,033 5,2946,124-22,524 4,71352,7723,65156,423790,931847,3542,605,374 85 3,72540,3519,32949,680771,180820,8602,696,073 81 10,190 2,161 14,24623,04528,562 2,46247,3104,96552,275764,459816,7342,717,992 80 17,017 1,18623,764715,969739,7332,637,100 76 (e)=(c)-(d) (d) (c)=(a)-(b) (b) (a) ( ) ( )

58. 37,22431,11435,519 26,242-88,307 9,903 -78,404 1,453,672 1,375,268 3,873,653 98 32,965-95,20739,353-65,8541,374,7021,308,8483,798,015 96 8,617 12,371 12,16223,50131,369 26,232-96,89336,818-60,0751,342,0001,281,9253,767,095 95 5,105-115,1393,206-111,9331,302,7111,190,7783,641,446 91 10,124 6,677 66,56935,42250,991 8,126-119,9773,206-116,7711,281,1891,164,4183,610,252 90 13,43955,01811,67666,694962,5571,029,2513,420,535 86 13,926 18,992 15,56332,61549,604 19,40727,29211,67438,966948,343987,3093,355,299 85 7,995-58,56926,780-31,789884,646852,8573,162,346 81 17,438 21,834 19,56932,44475,954 8,371-63,76617,475-46,291870,526824,2353,107,278 80 17,694-123,14326,444-96,699791,707695,0082,800,881 76 (e)=(c)-(d) (d) (c)=(a)-(b) (b) (a) ( ) ( )

61. 16,71216,321 22,540 8,287-62,566 4,700-57,866 711,972 654,106 1,978,782 98 20,360-73,34411,050-62,294682,164619,8701,934,968 96 16,757 16,754 16,41016,78929,640 23,140-72,85016,157-56,693661,837605,1441,911,161 95 11,284-58,1904,784-53,406591,065537,6591,792,603 91 9,408 7,760 33,98818,85038,501 9,739-61,7553,168-58,587579,787521,2001,762,963 90 7,41517,34111,67629,017418,879447,8961,614,471 86 15,078 13,962 15,01618,12537,058 13,6469,7457,35617,101409,848426,9491,570,456 85 8,980-11,06316,0705,007342,932347,9391,415,546 81 6,521 7,416 6,46012,15230,591 5,806-6,8918,4491,558334,767336,3251,385,165 80 5,463 10,011-21,022307,966286,9441,259,503 76 (e)=(c)-(d) (d) (c)=(a)-(b) (b) (a) ( ) ( )

64. 11,744 7,8719,748 6,086-76,840 2,771 -74,069 451,365377,296 1,073,635 98 9,335-70,8037,082-63,721425,224361,5031,055,898 96 4,458 4,486 4,2597,27412,140 4,826-67,2704,818-62,452416,134353,6821,044,392 95 4,195-76,7302,752-73,978398,880324,902996,706 91 7,391 7,941 8,39410,11021,462 3,247-79,1471,617-77,530394,840317,310983,694 90 14,215-106,74117,683-89,058365,495276,437901,961 86 28,997 28,222 27,53511,82720,437 24,027-99,25013,140-86,110352,872266,762876,384 85 17,168-72,11455,064-17,050231,862214,812794,960 81 4,690 9,669 3,5677,27115,727 10,175-37,07329,504-7,569215,198207,629774,197 80 5,330 4,291-22,092201,922179,830715,107 76 (e)=(c)-(d) (d) (c)=(a)-(b) (b) (a) ( ) ( )

67. 3,8594,5203,674 1,100-11,437 1,326 -10,111 276,487 266,376 771,060 98 5,120-15,4212,553-12,868269,864256,996764,658 96 3,444 3,820 3,2893,8633,838 5,146-16,0073,914-12,093264,910252,817760,037 95 2,479-15,6102,261-13,349250,888237,539745,081 91 1,625 2,975 10,8784,7715,978 1,361-15,695735-14,960248,464233,504740,846 90 1,76913,0575,14718,204196,370214,574717,811 86 3,441 4,316 3,3105,8254,283 2,98310,3195,25315,572194,075209,647710,954 85 2,5282025,0775,279179,734185,013694,630 81 3,742 3,547 4,3215,5818,649 2,063-1,0434,0402,997177,523180,520689,541 80 4,924 5,026-2,869160,875158,006656,927 76 (e)=(c)-(d) (d) (c)=(a)-(b) (b) (a) ( ) ( )

70. 5,4866,719 3,745 6,83312,1874,28016,467554,699571,1661,525,642 97 9,7345,8807,17513,055547,866560,9211,520,555 96 7,188 12,979 6,8518,8753,990 15,1254,7707,99812,768538,241551,0091,514,407 95 3,9244,9426,80311,745507,699519,4441,509,510 91 10,732 8,662 13,95312,86412,167 4,3297371,9082,645503,987506,6321,494,457 90 12,723-18,41622,3843,968449,411453,3791,436,142 86 15,891 20,657 14,91511,3717,439 18,311-4,14512,2328,087434,223442,3101,433,621 85 4,80910,56920,28030,849362,837393,6861,405,909 81 6,773 9,911 8,23811,00315,175 3,19712,99612,81325,809359,646385,4551,396,425 80 9,41011,99611,99614,635328,977343,6121,342,797 76 (e)=(c)-(d) (d) (c)=(a)-(b) (b) (a) ( ) ( )

73. Property Bubble

1 . 1926 - 1930

2. 1991 - 15

3. 1997 - 17

74.

1 . -> 1985

2009

2. 1985 9 1 =250 1986 9 1 =153 1987 120

2010

3. -> 5 15 GDP 5

75.

4. 1989 - 1,200 / 9 / 981.8 1991 6,000 / 42 / 4,582

5. 1991 2005 65% 87% -> (lostdecade)

1989 12 29 38,915.87 38,957.44 2003 4 28 7,607.88

1990 2 10 12,495.34 10 1 2,560.47

76. -36.12 10,292.63 2010/12/28 0 77.6 11.44 75.0 2010 -29.90 16111.43 2005/12/30 -65.13 77.6 -87.04 67.3 2005 -40.94 22,984 1991/12/30 35.89 223.4 31.83 519.4 1991 80.47 38,915.87 1989/12/29 41.97 164.4 77.32 394.0 1989 64.83 21,564 1987/12/28 39.18 115.8 72.38 222.2 1987 13.3 1985/1984 13,083 1985/12/27 5.5 1985/1984 83.2 13.17 1985/1984 128.9 1985

78. 2011 1991 2008 1988 2007 3 1987 3 2006 1986 2005 1985

79.

1. 1970

2.

1987 12 7 1,950.52 1,894.9

1997 8 7 16,820.3 16,673.3

2007 10 30 31,958.41 31,638.22

2008 10 27 12,736.85 11,015.84

2009 3 9 11,927.89 11,344.58

3. 1981

4. 1984 -1997 20%

5. 20

80.

6.1990-1997 GDP 40 30

7. 1990-1997 7

8. 1997 2002 SARS 65 8

9. 267 17

81. 4.4 22,833.80 2010/12/24 41.44 232,204 316.81 2010Q3 20.25 21,872.50 12.00 164,169 223.98 2009 -34.90 14,387.4 2008/12/31 -21.76 146,577 2008Q4 130.78 22,102.01 2008/6/30 207.44 187,349 258.4 2008Q2 -36.98 9,577.12 2003/6/30 -57.52 60,938 2003Q2 -9.65 15,196.8 1997/6/27 5.84 143,462 1997Q2 456.23 16,820.3 1997/8/7 571.88 135,544 1997 6.61 1990/1989 3,024 1990/12/31 -7.25 1990/1989 20,174 1990 / 160or above

82. (160 )

86. 1966-2010 GDP

87. 2000 2010 2010 70.50 316.81 232,2042010 Q3 58.80251.39184,2542009 59.90186.58136,7522008 53.10241.81177,2322007 44.90156.08114,4002006 41.60189.19138,6642005 40.75136.48100,0332004 39.10103.9076,1512003 36.7483.4961,1912002 37.6191.8567,3242001 38.57114.8684,1892000

88. 2000 2010

89. 2003 29

1.2003 10

2.

3.

4.

5.2003 5 2008 6 ABC 282% 268% 244%

90. ECFA

1. M1B M2

2. MOU ECFA

3. M

4. CEPA

5.

1

2

3

4

91.

1. ECFA

2.

3.

4.

92. 2011

93. 2011

1. 1.4

2.

3. ECFA

4.

5.

1. 2011

2.2011

3.2012

94.

1 87 7 A2 2,917 413.6

2 87 12 E2 848 571.9

3 97 7 A1 1,418 698.2

4 97 7 D3 1,093 310.0

5 98 1 8 206 91.05 ( ) 500.80

6 98 7 9 461.31 411.87 1.1

7 98 7 2 124.03 500.71 124.03 1.78

8 98 7 30 224.46 462.85 2.46

95.

9 98 8 13 100 729 17 14 3 1371.64 1 2826.41

10 98 10 1 53.68 3.71 1,332.8 402.75

11 98 11 23 29.9 4 22 SOGO KTV 10 282.23 2,295.2 20 897

12 99 1 28 116.16 7.89 2.35 679.08

13 99 1 28 87.12 6.27 719.48

96.

14 99 2 25 121.30 7.31 602.72

15 99 3 17 1,715 70.28 49.7 290 409.68 41.4 120

16 99 6 14 529.22 18.23 344.50

17 99 7 13 9.6988 156.39 620.13 153.37 632.38

97.

18 99 8 11 25 6,000 833

19 99 9 24 444 13.89 232.22

20 99 9 28 BOT 11.89 92%

21 99 10 1 231-1 161.68 9 500 556.66 23.79%

22 99 10 17 170 30 149

98. 2009 21 170 140 2007 53 200 130 2006 48 170 115 2005 60 140 87 2003 112 180 85 2002 115 140 65 2002 136 130 55 2001 100 200 100 2000 150 150 60 2000 100 180 90 1998 146 180 73 / /

99. 45% -19.75% 6,578 2009 27.70% 8,400 2010 42% -11.11% 8,197 2008 46% 17.96% 9,221 2007 49% 5.07% 7,817 2006 55% 14.89% 7,440 2005 67% 47.62% 6,476 2004 79% 29.52% 4,387 2003 57% -15.58% 3,387 2002 40% -16.10% 4,012 2001 (%) ( )

100. -15.74% 379,290-10.25% 111,183 -38.97% 70,388 97 2.38% 388,298 -31.76% 75,870 -27.29% 51,180 98 -4.67% 414,59424.24% 130,334 -12.79% 106,071 96 3.51% 450,16718.09% 123,876 -5.16% 115,341 95 3.99% 434,8888.58% 104,904 9.59% 121,622 94 19.58% 418,18718.74% 96,614 72.49% 110,981 93 9.19% 349,70630.66% 81,364 66.54% 64,341 92 23.43% 320,285-11.46% 62,272 58.41% 38,635 91 -19.20% 259,494-50.46% 70,329 -45.66% 24,389 90

101. 75-99

102. 75-99

103. 97-99

104. 97-99

105. 97-99

106. 97-99

107. -12.45% 5,279 4,622 -12.15% 4,198 3,688 -7.54% 2,479 2,292 -7.04% 5,514 5,126 -0.43% 9,913 9,870 1.98% 3,329 3,395 3.24% 8,568 8,846 7.07% 6,970 7,463 7.61% 4,825 5,192 13.36% 4,281 4,853 14.37% 2,727 3,119 -0.78% 64,112 63,611 2008 ( ) 2009 ( )

108. 92-98 40.38 30.39 33.53 52.98 81.45 35.03 98 92 14.08 15.92 15.57 24.11 63.09 21.47 98 12.90 14.94 15.01 23.76 64.58 21.24 97 11.76 15.66 13.53 22.45 55.42 20.73 96 11.37 14.00 13.08 19.02 43.97 18.33 95 10.22 13.05 17.66 16.32 36.95 16.23 94 10.27 14.08 10.27 15.98 35.96 16.62 93 10.03 12.21 11.66 15.76 34.77 15.90 92

109. 78-99 24.13 3.66 1514.70 2,703 409.42 112 99.1-11. 23.49 3.54 1,507.34 3,077 463.81 131 98 25.04 2.51 1,003.87 3,355 336.8 134 97 21.75 2.50 1,147.32 6,112 701.24 281 96 29.26 2.43 830.70 10,153 843.41 347 95 35.84 2.29 639.64 13,621 871.25 380 94 36.47 2.12 581.76 18,308 1,065.08 502 93 32.55 1.75 536.77 11,166 599.36 343 92 30.58 1.87 611.48 5,871 359.0 192 91 84.51 4.84 572.44 3,803 217.7 45 90 72.55 4.06 558.97 5,006 279.82 69 89 78.13 4.92 629.94 4,766 300.23 61 88 88.80 6.25 704.23 8,880 635.36 100 87 89.66 5.27 587.75 15,869 932.70 177 86 95.36 5.39 565.39 12,586 711.60 132 85 92.18 6.52 706.85 13,089 925.20 142 84 72.29 4.14 573.28 19,953 1,143.86 276 83 78.39 4.57 583.45 28,376 1,655.59 362 82 68.02 4.30 632.61 25,506 1,613.54 375 81 59.48 2.95 495.75 17,367 860.97 292 80 36.02 2.62 725.93 7,421 538.71 206 79 34.92 3.43 1,031.69 14,352 1,480.68 411 78 /

110. 97 -99 2 926,675937,846 2,944,5692,933,398 3,871,244 3,871,244 99 10 10,374,36410,547,426 32,964,28433,037,052 43,338,64843,584,478 98 905,814927,703 3,044,3673,022,478 3,950,1813,950,181 98 12 3,220,0373,246,527 6,254,8676,389,912 29,474,90429,636,439 97 841,737855,593 2,885,9642,875,811 3,727,7013,731,404 97 12

111. 2006-2010Q3 8.89.49.08.38.38.08.07.9 8.5 9 8.5 7.8 8 8 8.1 7.9 8.6 8 8.1 7.57.46.57.06.16.76.27.3 6.6 7 7.4 7.1 7.7 6.4 7.2 7 6.6 6.7 6.7 10.010.19.810.29.18.78.58.9 9.1 9.8 9.2 9.4 9 9.4 9 8.5 8.7 8.6 8.6 11.410.510.211.111.111.49.310.2 9.9 10.7 9.2 9.7 9 10.5 10 8.2 9.1 8.1 8.1 12.113.012.612.011.511.310.510.8 12.3 11.8 12.5 12.5 11.5 11.9 11.5 11.3 10.8 11.1 10.6 9.410.49.410.29.89.18.58.7 9.4 9.1 8.9 8.4 8.7 9.4 8.3 9.2 9.2 8.9 8.5 27.629.425.724.023.420.219.319.8 21.3 22.6 22 20.9 21 21.6 21 20.7 20.3 19.7 19.2 44.750.244.241.836.729.728.329.1 32.4 37.2 35.9 35 36.8 36 35.7 35.5 32.8 31 30 2010 Q4 2010 Q3 2010 Q2 2010 Q1 2009 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2008 Q4 2008 Q3 2008 Q2 2008 Q1 2007 Q4 2007 Q3 2007 Q2 2007 Q1 2006 Q4 2006 Q3 2006 Q2 2006 Q1

112. 2006-2010Q3

113. 10 6.3 8.7 6.0 8.1 5.9 7.9 5.6 7.8 5.4 7.4 5.3 7.3 5.1 6.9 4.7 6.7 4.7 6.4 4.3 6.4 4.1 ( ) ( )

114. 93 -98 9 4.34 7 4.75% 7 5.50% 9 5.73% 10 5.64% 9 5.67% 4 6.56 5 6.69% 6 6.72% 6 7.33% 6 6.90% 6 6.78% 8 4.54 8 4.47% 9 5.11% 10 5.69% 8 6.26% 7 6.16% 10 3.75 11 3.64% 11 4.36% 7 7.20% 9 5.81% 10 5.00% 2 8.63 3 8.28% 1 10.29% 1 11.72% 1 10.74% 1 10.17% 1 9.64 2 8.55% 2 8.87% 3 8.71% 5 7.04% 5 7.01% 7 4.62 9 4.40% 8 5.14% 8 6.03% 7 6.31% 8 5.95% 13 3.28 12 3.39% 10 4.53% 12 4.61% 12 4.76% 12 4.60% 6 6.31 1 8.60% 4 7.60% 4 8.43% 2 9.81% 3 8.17% 5 6.50 6 6.43% 5 7.01% 2 9.72% 3 9.71% 2 9.66% 10 3.75 10 3.81% 12 3.88% 11 4.70% 13 4.56% 13 4.12% 3 7.76 4 7.19% 3 7.99% 5 8.20% 4 7.69% 4 7.79% 98 97 96 95 94 93

115.

1. V U L W

2. ->->

3.M

4.

5.Maslow

6.

116. (Maslow) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

117. 6. (Lower Lowers) ( 20%) 5. (Upper Lowers) (35%) 4. (Lower Middles) ( 30%) 3. (Upper Middles) ( 12%) 2. (Lower Uppers) ( 2%) 1. (Upper Uppers) ( 1%)

118. (50 ) (70 ) (60 ) ( 80 ) (90 ) ( 2000-2010)

119. 2010 94 89 69 67 65 37 12 11

120.

1. 1980

2.1997

3. 1997 44 3 8,477 492

->

4. 1990

5. 3,000 -> 5,000 -> 8,000 -> 1

6.2007 1,000 70

121. 2008 18,416.30 54.68 73.84 405.4 348.2 791.05 7,523.71 9,219.42 5,475.04 20.92 37.37 220.53 24 13.88 3,529.80 1,628.54 2,861.67 7.46 0.8 66.81 0 1.41 2,234.38 550.81 10,079.59 26.3 35.67 118.06 324.2 775.76 1,759.53 7,040.07

122. 2009 15,857.22 51.50 92.30 332.01 291.15 634.48 6,431.31 8,024.47 4,610.47 19.94 47.50 156.40 20.13 7.98 2,856.97 1,501.55 2,411.64 7.88 1.94 59.770.00 2.391,830.72508.94 8,835.11 23.6842.86115.84271.02624.111,743.626,013.98

123. 2009

124. 2009

125. 2010 5 209,394 6,673 48,265 41,209 66,144 44,230 2,873 51,088 220 13,947 11,571 16,149 8,726 475 20,866 367 4,852 4,818 7,538 3,196 95 137,440 6,086 29,466 24,820 42,457 32,308 2,303

126.

1 VS. 2

3 VS. 4 VS.

5 VS. 6 VS.

7 VS. 8

9 10 ECFA

127.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

128.

6.ECFA

7.

8. M

9. QE2 QE

10.

11. IFRS

131. 80 98

132. 80 98

134.

X:

Y:

1. x y 3.25 1

2. x y 3.25 1

135.

3.

1 .10 RC 0.4 4 6 25

2 .25 1+30 32.5

3 . 30

x y0.4 1 30

x y 3.25 1

136. 4 6 / ( ) 1.25 1.5 10 100.4 1 30 =32.5 32.510 3.25 26 21.67 15 150.4 1 30 =48.75 48.7515 3.25 39 32.5 20 200.4 1 30 =65 6520 3.25 52 43.33 25 250.4 1 30 =81.25 81.2525 3.25 65 54.17

137. 5 5 / ( ) 1.25 1.5 8 80.5 1 30 =20.8 20.88 2.6 16.64 13.87 10 100.5 1 30 =26 2610 2.6 20.8 17.33 15 150.5 1 30 =39 3915 2.6 31.2 26

138.

1 50 1.30.4 15.39

2 80 1.30.4 24.62

3 100 1.30.4 30.77

1 15 1.30.5 5.77

2 20 1.30.5 7.69

139.

Y=[(X/a)(1 c)]/ 1 b

Y

X

a

b

c (X/a)

140. 25

1.

2.

3.

4. 1.5 2

5.1 1

6.

7.

8.

141. 25

9.

10.

11.

12.

13.

14.

15.

16.

142. 25

17.

18.

19. 3

20.

21.

22.

23.

24.

25.

143. 12F

144. 13F

145. 14F

159.

1. 2.

3. 4.

5. 6.

7. 8.

9. 10.

160. 0.55 3.01 7,767,913143,3237,655,77278,671 23,037,031 97 0.55 2.96 7,841,302150,0627, 805,83482,741 23,119,772 98 1.143.067,659,486148,0537,512,449168,11022,958,360 96 0.773.097,531,797582,2287,364,396450,51122,790,250 95 1.093.297,061,405799,9556,782,168868,29122,339,739 90 1.163.595,896,421790,3155,982,213914,60621,471,448 85 1.573.965,118,743702,5985,191,8981,102,23220,556,842 80 44,655,852 4,489,300 19,454,610 75 (b)/(d) (a)/(c) (d) (c) (b) (a)

165. 1970

166. 2010

167. 2056

168. 1970 2056

169.

REITs

170. CEO

1.

2.

3. know-how

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

171.

1.

2.

- -

- -

3.

556.66

-

172.

1. ECFA

2.

3.

4.

173.

1.99 Q3 110,055 1.39 1,071,061 4.63

2.99 12 65 2,487,893 23,162,123 10.74

174.

1. Social Housing

Low Cost Housing

Affordable Housing

2.

3.

175.

1. 6,397 0.08

2. 0.64 0.02 0.03

3. 8.7 29 34 20 19% 18% 18% 14% 6.2% 6.06%

4.

176.

1.

2. ->->

3.

4.

5.

177. -

1.

2.

3. 1

4. 1

28 10 4,580 / 15,141 32,900 108,760 7.1

178.

1. ->->

2. 5 -10

2.

3.

179.

1.

2.

3.

A7

181.

1. 2 3 U

2. 10

3.

182.

4

44.34 45.94

28.03 30.03

183.

1. 99 GDP 13.924

-99Q1 1.26 31.92 66.82

-98 1.46 31.01 67.48

2. ECFA

3.

4.

5.

- 006688 -> 0022446688 -

6.

7. -

8.

-

9.

10. -

184.

.

1.

1 -CPF -> 1955

2

2.

3.

4.

1

2

5.

1

2

185.

.

1. NPO

2.

5 -10

3.

186.

1.

2. ->

3.

10,168 3

4.

5.

5. capital gains

->

6. 6 4.25% 15% 6-12 10% 12-24 5% 19.25%

7.

187.

1

2

188.

1. VS.

2. VS.

3. VS.

4. VS.

5. VS.

6. VS.

7. VS. 1990 VS.NPL

8. VS.

9.

10. VS.

11. VS.

189.

12. VS.

13.

14. VS.

15. VS.

16. VS.

17. VS.

18. VS.

19. VS.

20.

21.

22.IFRS

190. CEPA

191. CEPA

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交大北區校友會-房地產發展趨勢