ΕΙΣΑΓΩΓΕΣ ΕΞΑΓΩΓΕΣ ΚΑΙ ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΗ ΑΝΑΠΤΥΞΗ

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ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΑ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΗ

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  • ...

    ,

    1960-2006,

    :

    :

    :

    2012

  • 2

    .6

    6

    7

    .8

    ABSTRACT..9

    ..10

  • 3

    1 - ................................................... 11

    1.1 ............................................................................ 11

    1.1 ................................................................................................. 14

    1.2 ................................................................................................... 15

    1.3 .......................................................................................... 16

    2 - ..................................................................... 17

    2.1 ....................................................................................... 17

    2.2 ............................................................................... 18

    2.3 ........................................................................................ 21

    3 - ........................................................................ 25

    3.1 ................................................................................................... 25

    3.2

    2000 .................................................................................................................................. 29

    4 - .......................................................... 30

    4.1 ................................................................... 30

    4.2 Imports ......................................................................................................... 31

    4.3 IMP ............................................................................................ 32

    4.4 Exports- .............................................................................................................. 33

    4.5 Exports ....................................................................................... 34

    4.6 -GDPN ................................................................................................................ 35

    4.7 -GDPN ......................................................................................... 36

    4.8 ................................................................................................. 37

    4.9 .................................................................................................. 40

    4.10 ........................................................................... 41

    5 - ................................................................ 42

    5.1 ........................................................... 42

    5.2 ......................................................................................................... 45

    .......................................................................................................... 45

    5.3 ........................................................................................................... 45

    ..................................................................... 45

    R2 (Coefficient of Determination) ........................ 45

    (F-statistic) ............................................................................ 45

    5.4 .................................................................................................... 46

  • 4

    Durbin Watson, ............................................... 46

    Breusch-Godfrey ......................................................................................... 46

    (Jarque Bera) .............................................. 47

    (White no cross terms) ................................................. 47

    ARCH ........................................................................................................ 48

    (stability coefficient) ..................................... 48

    Chow Breakpoint ............................................................................................................. 49

    Chow Forecast ................................................................................................................. 49

    ............................................................................... 50

    CUSUM TEST .................................................................................................................... 51

    Cusum Squares ................................................................................................................ 51

    6 - ................................................................................................ 52

    6.1 ............................................................ 52

    6.2 .................................................. 55

    6.3 ................................................................ 58

    7 - ................................................................. 60

    7.1 Augmented Dickey-Fuller Philips-Perron .................................................................... 60

    7.2 ADF & PP ................................................................................... 63

    8 - .......................................................................................... 64

    8.1 - ................................................................................................. 64

    8.2 Engle-Granger .................................................................................................................... 65

    8.3 (VAR) ..................... 66

    8.4 Johansen ........................................................................................... 66

    8.5 ............................................................................ 68

    8.6 -Johansen Cointegration test ...................... 70

    9 - ERROR CORRECTION MODEL.......................................................................... 72

    9.1 .......................................................................................... 72

    9.2 ....................................................................... 72

    9.3 VAR (Error Correction Model) .................. 73

    10 - ..................................................................................... 75

    10.1 - ......................................................................................................... 75

    10.2 ......................................................................................................... 78

    11 - .......................................................................................... 79

    11. .................................................................................................................. 79

  • 5

    12. / ............................................................................................ 81

    13........................................................................................................................ 85

    1, Imports ................................................................................................................................................. 29

    2. Exports .................................................................................................................................................31

    3, GDPN .................................................................................................................................................... 33

    4, GDPNF .................................................................................................................................................. 35

    5, GDPN-GDPNF ....................................................................................................................................... 35

    6, IMPF ..................................................................................................................................................... 36

    7, IMP-IMPF ............................................................................................................................................. 36

    8. EXPOF ................................................................................................................................................... 37

    9, EXPO-EXPOF ......................................................................................................................................... 37

    10,Recursive Residuals ............................................................................................................................. 48

    11, Qusum ................................................................................................................................................ 49

    12, Qusum Squares .................................................................................................................................. 50

    .1, IMP ......................................................................................................................... 30

    .2, EXPO ...................................................................................................................... 32

    .3, GDPN ...................................................................................................................... 34

    .4, ..........................................................................................................................