실적 만으로도 Buy, 비중확대, Top Picks 키움 ...fngenii.miraeassetdaewoo.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/산업... · nnhhnh투자증권nh투자증권투자증권¹ ¹¹¹

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2Q Preview : !

2Q . Top Tier

. 1)

, 2) Top Tier (

) .

. .

.

.

0%. .

.

Gateway .

.

. Brokerage

.

Buy, , Top Picks , ,

ROE 9% ROE . 04~

05 . PBR

. PBR .

, .

Top Tier .

2Q Preview .

(Maintain)

Earnings Preview

2015.7.10

[/]

02-768-3256 [email protected] 02-768-4149 [email protected]

2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q , , , , Top TierTop TierTop TierTop Tier

: KDB

1,235 1,173

318

1 8

50

-50 -60

-343

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

1Q15

Brok. WM IB 2Q15F

()

()

2 KDB Daewoo Securities Research

2Q Preview : ! Top Tier

2Q 1Q Top Tier

. .

( )

, ,

.

- .

1Q 2Q 10.4 . 85.4% ,

. Brokerage

1Q 950 1,800 .

Brokerage .

. ,

.

.

- .

,

.

.

( ) .

- ELS . 2Q

, .

- 1Q . 1Q

, 2Q .

1) , 2)

Top Tier ( Brokerage )

.

1111. . . . MovementMovementMovementMovement

: , KDB

2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q ,,,,

----

----

---- Top TierTop TierTop TierTop Tier

559

1,235 1,173 134

11 8 122

513

318

1 8

50

-8

-184

-50 -60

-343

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

FY14

Brok. WM IB

1Q15

Brok. WM IB

2Q15F

()

()


, Top Tier 1Q .

1) , 2)

. 3) .

424 () .

1) 30% , 2)

, 3) .

. 1Q

. 2Q MS ,

.

1111. . . . FY15 2Q PreviewFY15 2Q PreviewFY15 2Q PreviewFY15 2Q Preview (, %)

2Q FY142Q FY142Q FY142Q FY14 1Q FY151Q FY151Q FY151Q FY15 2Q FY15F2Q FY15F2Q FY15F2Q FY15F CommentCommentCommentComment

Consensus Preview QoQ YoY

184 302

- 119 160

64 143

52 111 86

180 262 264 0.7 46.8

- MS -

184 151 131 -12.8 -28.5

TP 92,000 -4 112 133 18.9

Buy -1 83 79 133 59.6

NHNHNHNH 162 319 242 -24.1 49.6

193 195 152 -22.0 -21.2

TP 16,500 -32 123 90 -27.4

Trading Buy -30 84 80 68 -19.5

212 273 282 3.3 32.8

- - -

134 143 140 -2.1 4.8

TP 80,000 79 130 142 9.2 80.1

Buy 59 104 83 108 3.3 82.5

70 126 100 -20.6 43.6

- MS , Brokerage - -

48 51 52 2.1 8.1

TP 96,000 22 75 48 -36.0 122.4

Buy 17 59 34 36 -38.1 110.5

127 155 129 -16.8 1.2

75 82 81 -2.0 7.6

52 72 48 -33.6 -8.1

Hold 45 68 53 50 -26.9 9.7

143 246 215 -12.9 49.8

135 142 133 -6.6 -1.8

8 104 82 -21.4 892.5

Hold 2 87 51 64 -26.4 3,486.3

: WISEfn / NH 2Q FY14 ()

: WISEfn, KDB

()


.

. 1% .

0% .

7 9 1 (S ) 1.30%. (2

) 30% 0.91% .

2.11% .

.

. .

. 10

,

.

.

2222. . . . + + + +

: KDB

3333. . . . 4444. . . . , , , , , , , ,

: ELS / : , KDB : , ECOS, , KDB

0%0%0%0%

2.16

2.76 2.67 2.37

2.61

5.88

1.73

2.21 2.33 2.03

2.28

5.52

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

ELS

2014.122015.5

(%)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12.2 12.8 13.2 13.8 14.2 14.8 15.2

()

1 ()

ELS ()

(%)

5.46

3.13

1.78

()


:

.

Gateway .

2.1%()

20~30bp .

. 1.0% , CMA RP 2%

.

.

Upselling

.

.

.

, .

. 20 10 .

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.

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- 1 500

-

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::::

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

: , , KDB

::::

----

GatewayGatewayGatewayGateway

----

()


3333. . . .

(((( 20202020))))

(14(14(14(14 ))))

ROEROEROEROE ((((13131313 ))))

Japan Net Bank 2000

Sakura Bank 50% Sumitomo Bank 10% Nippon Life Insurance 10% Fujitsu 10%

+

200200200200 372.5 5.5% 0.66

Sony Bank 2001 Sony Financial Holdings 80% Sakura Bank 16%

280280280280 310 5.4% 2.55

SBI Sumishin Net Bank

2007 Sumitomo Trust Group 50% SBI Holdings 50%

200200200200 310 12.8% 4.94

Jibun Bank 2008 BTMU() 50% KDDI() 50%

200200200200 350 8.3% 0.71

Daiwa Next Bank 2011 Daiwa Securities Group() 100%

300300300300 500 4.3% 4.23

Rakuten Bank 2001 Matsuo() 15.4% Japan Telecom 5.7% Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance 3.0%

+

89.589.589.589.5 259 12.9% 1.30

: , KDB

5555. . . . Daiwa Next BankDaiwa Next BankDaiwa Next BankDaiwa Next Bank 6666. . . . SBISBISBISBI (((( ))))

: Daiwa Next Bank, KDB : SBI, KDB

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 3Q

FY12 FY13 FY14

(L)

(R)

() (%)

0

2

4

6

8

10

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

SBI SBI

()

CAGR -1.2%

CAGR 3.6%

()


,

, Brokerage

.

, .

, .

.

.

. .

. .

.

.

(2013) , .

.

(

), ( ETF

) .

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. ,

Brokerage .

7777. . . . : : : : (((()))) 8888. . . .

: , KDB : , KDB

---- Brokerage Brokerage Brokerage Brokerage

----

---- Top Tier Top Tier Top Tier Top Tier

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15F

(L)

Brokerage (L)

(R)

() (%)

()


9999. . . . (15(15(15(15 1111~5~5~5~5 ))))

: WFE, KDB

10101010. . . . (15(15(15(15 5555 ))))

: WFE, KDB

11111111. . . .

: , KDB

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000()

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

()

()


ROE ,

ROE 9% . ROE , 04

~ 05 .

ROE . PBR

. PBR .

.

, Brokerage

. .

Top Tier . 2Q Preview

.

, Top picks (039490), (071050), (016360)

.

12121212. . . . ValuationValuationValuationValuation ROE ROE ROE ROE (((( vs. vs. vs. vs. ))))

: , KDB

ROE ROE ROE ROE

04~0504~0504~0504~05

PBRPBRPBRPBR

PBR PBR PBR PBR

Top Picks :Top Picks :Top Picks :Top Picks :

, , , , , , , ,

()


13131313. . . . PBR PBR PBR PBR 14141414. . . . PBR PBR PBR PBR

: KDB : KDB

15151515. . . . PBR PBR PBR PBR 16161616. . . . PBR PBR PBR PBR

: KDB : KDB

17171717. . . . PBR PBR PBR PBR 18181818. . . . NHNHNHNH PBR PBR PBR PBR

: KDB : KDB

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

(x)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

(x)

0

1

2

3

4

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

(x)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

(x)

0

1

2

3

4

5

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

(x)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

(x)

()


4444. . . . Valuation TableValuation TableValuation TableValuation Table

NHNHNHNH

Trading Buy

() 92,000 16,500 80,000 96,000 - - -

() 50,700 11,950 61,500 67,800 47,150 8,630 11,500

(%) 81.5 38.1 30.1 41.6 - - -

EPS 13.12 148 74 954 1,640 1,641 -181 174

() 14.12 3,187 270 3,884 3,420 4,116 158 500

15.12F 5,438 955 6,624 7,217 5,304 1,143 500

16.12F 5,159 1,073 6,771 5,602 5,335 976 742

17.12F 5,587 1,138 7,636 5,953 5,911 1,057 785

BPS 13.12 43,119 15,770 43,170 38,413 49,857 12,331 18,838

() 14.12 44,832 14,550 46,425 41,500 53,034 12,698 18,933

15.12F 49,092 15,368 53,019 45,640 58,898 13,917 19,247

16.12F 52,990 16,038 60,589 48,841 64,102 14,707 19,519

17.12F 57,196 16,773 69,205 52,331 69,880 15,485 20,136

PER 13.12 297.1 130.5 48.1 30.8 23.4 - 45.1

() 14.12 14.0 38.0 10.5 13.5 10.4 43.8 19.0

15.12F 9.3 12.5 9.3 9.4 8.9 7.5 23.0

16.12F 9.8 11.1 9.1 12.1 8.8 8.8 15.5

17.12F 9.1 10.5 8.1 11.4 8.0 8.2 14.6

PBR 13.12 1.0 0.6 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.4

() 14.12 1.0 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.5

15.12F 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.5 0.8 0.6 0.5

16.12F 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.4 0.7 0.6 0.5

17.12F 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.5

ROE 13.12 0.3 0.5 2.2 4.2 3.3 -1.4 0.9

(%) 14.12 6.7 2.1 8.7 8.6 8.2 1.3 2.6

15.12F 10.9 5.7 13.3 16.5 9.3 8.6 2.6

16.12F 9.5 6.8 11.9 11.8 8.5 6.8 3.8

17.12F 9.5 6.9 11.8 11.7 8.6 7.0 3.9

13.12 11 16 59 36 69 -43 15

() 14.12 230 81 239 76 181 37 43

15.12F 390 287 408 159 230 271 43

16.12F 370 322 417 124 231 231 64

17.12F 400 342 470 132 256 250 68

13.12 3,437 3,447 2,662 855 2,111 2,918 1,635

() 14.12 3,427 4,378 2,860 924 2,355 3,004 1,643

15.12F 3,752 4,624 3,266 1,016 2,615 3,293 1,670

16.12F 4,050 4,826 3,732 1,087 2,846 3,480 1,694

17.12F 4,372 5,047 4,263 1,165 3,103 3,664 1,747

13.12 67.4 73.7 20.5 21.5 20.4 -64.6 106.9

(%) 14.12 20.4 60.1 17.2 13.1 2.4 29.4 45.8

15.12F 18.4 46.6 14.5 13.8 1.9 16.3 89.1

16.12F 21.3 37.5 17.0 17.8 1.9 28.6 60.1

17.12F 21.5 39.7 17.6 18.4 1.7 30.8 56.8

13.12 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.0 2.5

(%) 14.12 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.7 2.6

15.12F 2.0 3.3 1.6 1.5 0.2 2.3 4.3

16.12F 2.2 3.3 2.0 1.5 0.2 3.5 4.3

17.12F 2.4 3.8 2.3 1.6 0.2 4.1 4.3

: NH FY13, FY14 ()

: KDB

()


Top Picks

(016360/)

2Q : 1) , 2) , 3) , 4)

25.19%

(039490/) 2

2Q : 1) Brok. , 2) , 3)

,

Outbound brokerage

()


2Q

2Q 1,333 1Q .

1) . MS

, 1Q 2 .

2) . Wrap, ELS 10

160 .

3)

.

4) .

(531.3 , 73 ) 424 ()

.

Money move .

.

.

AUM .

.

. 25.19%

. 30%

, .

92,000, , Top Picks .

(016360) ( )

(Maintain)

(,12M) 92,000

(15/07/09,) 50,700

81%

(15F,) 469 Consensus (15F,) 410

EPS (15F,%) 69.3

MKT EPS (15F,%) 35.1

P/E(15F,x) 9.3

MKT P/E(15F,x) 10.7

KOSPI 2,027.81

() 3,875

() 76

(%) 73.9

(%) 22.7

(12M) 2.15

52 () 41,750

52 () 66,400

(%)(%)(%)(%) 1111 6666 12121212

-17.4 12.0 10.5

-16.0 6.3 9.0

(12) 03/13 12/13 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F

() 960 454 769 1,015 1,045 1,089

() 221 0 167 469 488 528

() 158 11 230 390 370 400

EPS () 2,064 148 3,187 5,438 5,159 5,587

BPS () 43,732 43,119 44,832 49,092 52,990 57,196

P/E () 26.3 297.1 14.0 9.3 9.8 9.1

P/B () 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9

ROE (%) 5.5 0.3 6.7 10.9 9.5 9.5

1.2 0.2 1.5 2.0 2.2 2.4

() 3,482 3,437 3,427 3,752 4,050 4,372

: K-IFRS , , 12/13 9

: , KDB

80

100

120

140

160

14.7 14.11 15.3 15.7

KOSPI

()


(016360)

(((()))) (((())))

() 14/12 15/12F 16/12F 17/12F () 14/12 15/12F 16/12F 17/12F 5,089 5,570 5,583 5,633 769 769 769 769 1,015 1,015 1,015 1,015 1,045 1,045 1,045 1,045 1,089 1,089 1,089 1,089 17,340 18,533 19,907 21,339 416 550 545 561

14,899 16,169 17,542 18,972 245 361 356 365 2,428 2,350 2,350 2,350 102 98 103 107 13 14 15 17 IB 27 35 36 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

475 616 680 751 43 57 51 53 1,382 1,522 1,551 1,600 388 455 444 483 58 54 54 54 -36 21 55 49 CMA() 0 0 0 0 0 -12 0 -4 () 0 0 0 0 602 602 602 602 546 546 546 546 557 557 557 557 561 561 561 561 1,430 1,852 1,946 2,045 332 298 301 305 25,775 25,775 25,775 25,775 28,147 28,147 28,147 28,147 29,722 29,722 29,722 29,722 31,423 31,423 31,423 31,423 69 69 69 69 3,550 3,501 3,520 3,598 82 74 74 74 17,540 19,168 20,426 21,728 118 106 113 114 1,258 1,726 1,726 1,726 0 0 0 0 22,348 22,348 22,348 22,348 24,395 24,395 24,395 24,395 25,671 25,671 25,671 25,671 27,051 27,051 27,051 27,051 167 167 167 167 469 469 469 469 488 488 488 488 528 528 528 528 394 394 394 394 -4 45 0 0 1,508 1,508 1,508 1,508 163 163 163 163 514 514 514 514 488 488 488 488 528 528 528 528 -205 -233 -233 -233 37 124 118 128 171 183 183 183 230 230 230 230 390 390 390 390 370 370 370 370 400 400 400 400 1,558 1,900 2,198 2,519 () 230 390 370 400 3,427 3,427 3,427 3,427 3,752 3,752 3,752 3,752 4,050 4,050 4,050 4,050 4,372 4,372 4,372 4,372

(((()))) valuationvaluationvaluationvaluation

14/12 15/12F 16/12F 17/12F 14/12 15/12F 16/12F 17/12F (%)(%)(%)(%) (%)(%)(%)(%) 25.5 9.2 5.6 5.7 769.4 852.0 927.6 1,009.2 23.1 -1.4 0.5 2.2 79.8 83.0 75.8 69.0 -0.3 9.5 7.9 7.9 32.2 32.2 -0.9 2.9 Valuation Valuation Valuation Valuation ((((, , , , , %), %), %), %) 69.1 32.1 2.9 4.3 EPS 3,187 5,438 5,159 5,587 180.6 4.1 8.3 BPS 44,832 49,092 52,990 57,196 1,985.8 69.3 -5.1 8.3 PER 14.0 9.3 9.8 9.1 PBR 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 (%)(%)(%)(%) DPS(DPS(DPS(DPS()))) ROE 6.7 10.9 9.5 9.5 650 1,000 1,100 1,200 ROA 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.3 0 0 0 0 (%)(%)(%)(%) (%)(%)(%)(%) 1.5 2.0 2.2 2.4 127.8 185.7 187.5 194.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.2 100.7 97.9 100.0 (%)(%)(%)(%) 20.4 18.4 21.3 21.5 : , KDB

()


2Q ,

2Q 363 336

. 1Q .

1) Brok. QoQ 33.0% .

MS 1Q

. 2 12 .

2) .

.

, (14 1.7 2Q15

2.5 ) .

3) .

.

.

2

1 .

. ( 50% )

. ,

,

.

,

. (

)

Outbound Brokerage .

96,000, , Top Picks .

(039490) 2

(Maintain)

(,12M) 96,000

(15/07/09,) 67,800

42%

(15F,) 209 Consensus (15F,) 191

EPS (15F,%) 111.0

MKT EPS (15F,%) 35.1

P/E(15F,x) 9.4

MKT P/E(15F,x) 10.7

KOSPI 2,027.81

() 1,498

() 22

(%) 51.8

(%) 29.9

(12M) 1.95

52 () 41,550

52 () 84,300

(%)(%)(%)(%) 1111 6666 12121212

-7.3 23.5 57.5

-5.6 17.2 55.4

(12) 03/13 12/13 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F

() 229 189 300 415 372 383

() 63 54 100 209 164 174

() 51 36 76 159 124 132

EPS () 2,329 1,640 3,420 7,217 5,602 5,953

BPS () 37,861 38,413 41,500 45,640 48,841 52,331

P/E () 29.4 30.8 13.5 9.4 12.1 11.4

P/B () 1.8 1.3 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.3

ROE (%) 6.0 4.2 8.6 16.5 11.8 11.7

0.7 0.7 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.6

() 861 855 924 1,016 1,087 1,165

: K-IFRS , , 12/13 9

: , KDB

80

130

180

230

14.7 14.11 15.3 15.7

KOSPI

()


(039490)

(((()))) (((())))

() 14/12 15/12F 16/12F 17/12F () 14/12 15/12F 16/12F 17/12F 1,877 1,908 1,831 1,831 300 300 300 300 415 415 415 415 372 372 372 372 383 383 383 383 557 620 708 824 135 198 209 217

423 475 551 653 87 135 146 151 64 72 81 91 23 31 33 36 43 46 50 53 IB 14 17 17 17 27 27 27 27 0 0 0 0

1 1 1 1 11 15 13 13 1,420 1,409 1,406 1,437 146 155 149 148 130 130 130 130 32 72 25 29 CMA() 0 0 0 0 -13 -11 -11 -11 () 0 0 0 0 200 200 200 200 206 206 206 206 207 207 207 207 208 208 208 208 730 730 730 730 61 61 63 63 4,715 4,715 4,715 4,715 4,797 4,797 4,797 4,797 4,805 4,805 4,805 4,805 4,953 4,953 4,953 4,953 41 41 41 41 2,449 2,402 2,282 2,282 32 31 31 31 756 793 850 920 66 72 72 72 586 586 586 586 0 0 0 0 3,791 3,791 3,791 3,791 3,781 3,781 3,781 3,781 3,718 3,718 3,718 3,718 3,788 3,788 3,788 3,788 100 100 100 100 209 209 209 209 164 164 164 164 174 174 174 174 110 110 110 110 -3 0 0 0 190 190 190 190 98 98 98 98 209 209 209 209 164 164 164 164 174 174 174 174 -22 -22 -22 -22 22 49 40 42 6 6 6 6 76 76 76 76 160 160 160 160 124 124 124 124 132 132 132 132 633 725 796 873 () 76 159 124 132 924 924 924 924 1,016 1,016 1,016 1,016 1,087 1,087 1,087 1,087 1,165 1,165 1,165 1,165

(((()))) valuationvaluationvaluationvaluation

14/12 15/12F 16/12F 17/12F 14/12 15/12F 16/12F 17/12F (%)(%)(%)(%) (%)(%)(%)(%) 11.6 1.7 0.2 3.1 736.1 819.5 884.0 954.3 14.6 -1.9 -5.0 0.0 140.7 132.2 128.7 125.6 8.0 10.0 7.0 7.1 47.8 46.1 5.7 3.6 Valuation Valuation Valuation Valuation ((((, , , , , %), %), %), %) 59.0 38.3 -10.4 3.0 EPS 3,420 7,217 5,602 5,953 87.3 108.6 -21.5 6.3 BPS 41,500 45,640 48,841 52,331 111.4 110.7 -22.3 6.3 PER 14.0 9.4 12.1 11.4 PBR 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.3 (%)(%)(%)(%) DPS(DPS(DPS(DPS()))) ROE 8.6 16.5 11.8 11.7 450 1,000 1,000 1,100 ROA 1.7 3.4 2.6 2.7 0 0 0 0 (%)(%)(%)(%) (%)(%)(%)(%) 0.9 1.5 1.5 1.6 150.2 201.7 179.2 183.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 67.9 96.2 100.9 104.1 (%)(%)(%)(%) 13.1 13.8 17.8 18.4 : , KDB

()


(((()))) (((()))) (((()))) (((())))

(016360) 2015.04.23 92,000 (071050) 2015.04.02 80,000

2014.11.16 68,000 2014.09.24 70,000

2014.07.15 57,000 2013.06.21 58,000

2014.05.15 52,000 NH(005940) 2015.04.02 Trading Buy 16,500

2014.02.16 Trading Buy 52,000 2014.11.13 Trading Buy 14,300

2013.08.15 Trading Buy 57,000 2014.08.17 Trading Buy 13,500

2013.05.13 71,000 2014.03.17 Trading Buy 12,000

(039490) 2015.05.14 96,000 2013.10.17 15,500

2015.03.03 84,000

2014.08.13 70,000 (037620) 2013.04.10 -

2014.05.29 66,000 (003450) 2013.04.10 -

2013.08.15 80,000 (003540) 2013.04.10 -

2013.06.12 86,000

(((()))) Trading Buy(Trading Buy(Trading Buy(Trading Buy()))) (((()))) (((())))

72.36% 13.57% 14.07% 0.00%

* 2015 6 30 1

Compliance Notice

- .

- 3 . - .

- .

,

. . .

: 12 20% : 12

Trading Buy : 12 10% : 12

: 12 -10~10% : 12

: 12 -10%

(), Trading Buy(), (), (), (), (), Not covered()

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

13.7 14.7 15.7

()

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

13.7 14.7 15.7

()

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

13.7 14.7 15.7

()

0

5,000

10,000

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