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생생생생생생 Ch. 17. Ch. 17. 프프프프 프프 프프프프 프프 Hansoo Kim ( 생생생 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

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Page 1: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

생산운영관리

Ch. 17. Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리프로젝트 관리

Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 )Dept. of Management Information Systems,

YUST

Page 2: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

이번주 까지 했어야 하는 일들…

Review Ch. 1 and 2 HW#1 Ch. 17 읽어 오기

Page 3: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Ch.1, 2 의 주요사항

기업조직의 3 대 기능 생산운영관리란 ? 왜 중요한가 ? 생산성이란 ? Productivity 생산성 계산 방법 Calculating Productivity 생산성 향상을 위한 요인들 Productivity Variables 생산 운영관리의 역사 History of OM

무슨일 , 언제 , 누구에 의해서 What, When, by Who 변화하는 기업환경 Changing Challenges! 미션 /전략 Mission/Strategy

Better/Cheaper/Faster

Page 4: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

OM Overview

Class Overview(Ch. 0)

Project Management

(Ch. 17)

Strategic Capacity Planning(Ch. 5, 5S)

Operations, Productivity, and Strategy

(Ch. 1, 2)

Mgmt of Quality/Six Sigma Quality

(Ch. 9, 10)

Supply Chain Management

(Ch 11)

Location Planning and Analysis

(Ch. 8)

Demand MgmtForecasting

(Ch 3)

Inventory Management

(Ch. 12)

Aggregated Planning

(Ch. 13)

Queueing/ Simulation

(Ch. 18)

MRP & ERP (Ch 14)

JIT & Lean Mfg System

(Ch. 15)

Term Project

Process Selection/

Facility Layout; LP(Ch. 6, 6S)X X

Page 5: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

To be OM Expert !!!

UnderstandingProblem

DevelopingProper Model

Finding SolutionTechnique

Communicable with other OM People

Domain Expert(Studying general

Problems and Working Experience)

Operations Research(경영과학)

Mathematical Programming, and Computational

Methodology

Existing Models:LP Model,

Queueing Model, Simulation Model,PERT/CPM Model

Develop New Models

OM EXPERT!!

Page 6: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

학습목표 프로젝트 인력과 관리자의 관점에서 프로젝트와

관리를 논의할수 있다 프로젝트 관리에서 작업분담구조의 본질과

중요성에 대해 논의할수 있다 PERT/CPM 기법에 대한 일반적인 내용을

설명할수 있다 간단한 네트워크 도를 작성할수 있다 PRTT/CPM 기법을 사용하여 프로젝트 문제를

해결할 수 있다 .

Page 7: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Terms( 용어 ) Project organization ( 项目管

理 ) Work breakdown structure

(WBS) ( 工作结构分解 ) Gantt charts ( 甘特图 ) Program evaluation and

review technique (PERT) ( 计划评审技术 )

Critical path method (CPM) ( 关键路线法 )

Critical path ( 关键路线 ) Activity-on-node (AON) ( 点线

法 ) Activity-on-arrow (AOA) ( 箭线

法 ) Dummy activities (虚活动)

Critical path analysis(关键路线分析)

Forward pass (正推法) Backward pass (逆推法) Slack time (松弛时间) Total slack (总浮时) Free slack (自由浮时) Optimistic time (乐观时间) Pessimistic time (悲观时间) Most likely time (最可能时

间) Beta probability distribution

(β 分布 ) Crashing (赶工)

Page 8: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

프로젝트 , 프로젝트 관리란 ? 프로젝트프로젝트 , Project, Project: ( 项目 )

제한된 시간에 특정 목적을 이루기 위해 설계된 독특하고 단발적인 작업Unique, one-time operations designed to accomplish a set of objectives in a limited time frame

프로젝트 관리프로젝트 관리 , Project Management, Project Management: ( 项目管理 ) 프로젝트를 성공적으로 수행하기 위해서 제한된 자원을

계획하고 , 일정관리하며 , 통제하는 행위Planning( 计划 ), scheduling( 排程 , 일정관리 ), and controlling( 控制 ) resources( 资源 ) (people, equipment, material) to meet the technical, cost, and time constraints of a project

Page 9: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

프로젝트의 사례 건설 프로젝트 애플 , iPad 개발 프로젝트 우주왕복선 개발 프로젝트 연구 프로젝트 신제품 개발 프로젝트 학기말 프로젝트 등 ...

Page 10: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

프로젝트 관리 Planning ( 计划 )- goal setting( 设计目标 ),

project definition( 定义项目 ), team organization ( 项目小组 )

Scheduling ( 排程 , 일정관리 )- relating people, money, and supplies to specific activities, and relating activities to each other

Controlling ( 控制 )- monitoring resources, costs, quality, and budgets; revising plans and shifting resources to meet time and cost demands

Page 11: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

프로젝트 계획 , 일정관리 , 통제

Page 12: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

프로젝트 생명주기 (Life-Cycle)

Page 13: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

프로젝트 계획Project Planning ( 计划 )

Establishing objectives ( 设立目标 )

Defining project ( 定义项目 )

Creating work breakdown structure (WBS*, 작업분담구조 )

Determining resources ( 资源 )

Forming organization ( 形成组织 ) © 1995 Corel Corp.

Page 14: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Acct.

Eng. Eng.Mkt.

Mgr.

Project Planning: 프로젝트 팀 구성Project Organization ( 项目小组 )

Often temporary structure ( 전문가로 구성된 임시조직 ) Uses specialists from entire company Headed by project manager (PM, 프로젝트관리자 )

Coordinates activities Monitors schedule

& costs Permanent

structure called ‘matrix(矩阵 ) organization’

© 1995 Corel Corp.

Page 15: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Project Planning: An Example of Project Organization ( 프로젝트 팀 구성 )

Sales

President

FinanceHuman

ResourcesEngineering

QualityControl

Production

TechnicianTest

EngineerPropulsionEngineer

Physiologist

ProjectManager

PsychologistStructuralEngineer

InspectionTechnician

Technician

Project 1

Project 2

ProjectManager

Matrix Organization 매트릭스 조직

Page 16: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Project Planning: 프로젝트 관리자의 역할The Role of Project Manager (PM)

Project Planand Schedule

Revisions andUpdates

ProjectManager

ProjectTeam

TopManagementResources

PerformanceReports

Informationregarding times,costs, problems,

delays Feedback Loop

프로젝트 계획 /일정관리

계획수정 /업데이트

프로젝트관리자 프로젝트 팀 구성 /관리

최고경영자 보고자원 관리

수행보고서 작성

비용 /시간 /문제 관련된 정보파악

Page 17: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Project Planning: Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)

1. 1.0 Project2. 1.1 Major tasks in the project3. 1.1.1 Subtasks in the major tasks4. 1.1.1.1 Activities (or work packages) to

be completed

WBS: The hierarchy of project tasks, subtasks, WBS: The hierarchy of project tasks, subtasks, and activities (or work packages)and activities (or work packages)

프로젝트 중에 수행되어야 하는 작업들의 계층적 구조프로젝트 중에 수행되어야 하는 작업들의 계층적 구조

Level Level ID Activity

Page 18: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Project Scheduling ( 排程 , 일정관리 ) Identifying precedence

relationships ( 先后关系 )활동의 선후관계 파악

Sequencing activities선후관계 연결

Determining activity times & costs활동의 비용 및 시간 파악

Estimating material & worker requirements소요되는 인력 및 자원 예측

Determining critical activities ( 关键活动 )주공정로 상의 주요활동 파악

© 1995 Corel Corp.

JF

MA

MJ

J

MonthActivity

Design

Build

Test

PE

RT

Page 19: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Project Scheduling:간트 챠트 Gantt Chart

Page 20: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Project Control ( 控制 )프로젝트 통제

Monitoring ( 감시 ) resources, costs, quality, and budgets;

Revising ( 수정 ) plans and shifting resources to meet time and cost demands

Page 21: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Project Management Techniques ( 프로젝트 관리 방법 )

Gantt chart( 甘特图 ) Critical Path Method

(CPM 关键路径发 ), 주경로법 Program Evaluation &

Review Technique (PERT 计划评审技术 )

© 1984-1994 T/Maker Co.

Page 22: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

PERT and CPM Network techniques Developed in 1950’s

CPM by DuPont for chemical plants (1957) PERT by Booz, Allen & Hamilton with the U.S.

Navy, for Polaris missile (1958)

Consider precedence relationships and interdependencies

Each uses a different estimate of activity times

PERTPERT: : PProgram rogram EEvaluation and valuation and RReview eview TTechniqueechnique

CPMCPM: : CCritical ritical PPath ath MMethodethod

Page 23: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Understanding Problem!!

UnderstandingProblem

DevelopingProper Model

Finding SolutionTechnique

Communicable with other OM People

Domain Expert(Studying general

Problems and Working Experience)

Operations Research(경영과학)

Mathematical Programming, and Computational

Methodology

Existing Models:LP Model,

Queueing Model, Simulation Model,PERT/CPM Model

Develop New Models

OM EXPERT!!

Page 24: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Project Management Problem( 프로젝트 관리 문제 )

Given, ( 주어진 조건 ) Activities from WBS (WBS 상의 활동들 ) Activity Times and Costs ( 활동들에 대한 시간 및 비용 예측치 ) Precedence Relationships ( 활동의 선후 관계도 )

Answer ( 요구되는 답 ) Is the project on schedule, ahead of schedule, or behind

schedule? ( 프로젝트가 계획대로 진행될 것인가 ?) Is the project over or under cost budget?

( 프로젝트 예산에 맞는가 아니면 초과 혹 미달 하는가 ?) Are there enough resources available to finish the project on

time?( 프로젝트를 정시에 마치기 위한 충분한 가용한 자원이 있는가 ?)

If the project must be finished in less than the scheduled amount of time, what is the way to accomplish this at least cost?( 만약 프로젝트를 좀 더 빨리 끝내기 위해서는 최소의 비용으로 어떻게 해야 하는가 ?)

Page 25: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Milwaukee General Hospital’s Activities and Predecessors ( 사례 : 종합병원 건축 프로젝트 )

Activity Description Processing

Time

Immediate Predecessors

A Build internal components 2 -

B Modify roof and floor 3 -

C Construct collection stack 2 A

D Pour concrete and install frame 4 A, B

E Build high-temperature burner 4 C

F Install pollution control system 3 C

G Install air pollution device 5 D, E

H Inspect and test 2 F, G

Page 26: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

AON( 点线法 ) Network for Milwaukee General Hospital

Start

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

Arrows show

precedence

relationships

Page 27: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

AOA( 箭线法 ) Network (With Dummy Activities) for Milwaukee General

1

3

2 4

5

6 7H

Inspect/Test

G

Install p

ollution

control device

D

Pour concrete/ Install frame

BModify roof/floor

CConstruct

stackF

Install controlsEBuild bu rner

ABuild

inter

nal

compo

nents Dummy

Activity

Page 28: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

A Comparison of AON and AOA Network Conventions

Page 29: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Critical Path ( 关键路径 ) and Slack Time( 松弛时间 )

A

B

C4

2 2

Slack = 0

A

B

C3

2 2

Slack = 1

Page 30: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Critical Path Analysis( 주공정로 분석 ) Provides activity information

Earliest (ES) & latest (LS) start Earliest (EF) & latest (LF) finish Slack (S): Allowable delay

Identifies critical path LongestLongest path in network ShortestShortest time project can be completed Any delay on critical path activities delays

project Critical path activities have 0 slack

Page 31: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Earliest Start and Finish Steps Begin at starting event and work forward ES = 0 for starting activities

ES is earliest start

EF = ES + Activity time EF is earliest finish

ES = Maximum EF of all predecessors for non-starting activities

Page 32: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Latest Start and Finish Steps Begin at ending event and work backward LF = Maximum EF for ending activities

LF is latest finish; EF is earliest finish

LS = LF - Activity time LS is latest start

LF = Minimum LS of all successors for non-ending activities

Page 33: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Latest Start and Finish Steps

Latest Finish

ES

LS

EF

LF

Earliest Finish

Latest Start

Earliest Start

Activity Nam

eActivity Duration

Page 34: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Critical Path( 关键路径 ) forMilwaukee General Hospital

Start

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

Arrows show

precedence

relationships

Page 35: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

AON Network for Milwaukee General Hospital Forward Calculation

Start

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H00

0

00

Page 36: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

AON Network for Milwaukee General Hospital Forward Calculation

Start

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H00

0

00

A00

2

20

Page 37: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

AON Network for Milwaukee General Hospital Forward Calculation

Start

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H00

0

00

A00

2

20

B00

3

30

Page 38: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

AON Network for Milwaukee General Hospital Forward Calculation

Start

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H00

0

00

A00

2

20

B00

3

30

D30

4

70

C20

2

40

E40

4

80

F40

3

70

G80

5

13

0

H13

02

15

0

Page 39: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

AON Network for Milwaukee General Hospital Backward Calculation

Start

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H00

0

00

A00

2

20

B00

3

30

D30

4

70

C20

2

40

E40

4

80

F40

3

70

G80

5

13

0

H13

132

15

15

Page 40: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

AON Network for Milwaukee General Hospital Backward Calculation

Start

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H00

0

00

A00

2

20

B00

3

30

D30

4

70

C20

2

40

E40

4

80

F410

3

713

G88

5

13

13

H13

132

15

15

Page 41: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

AON Network for Milwaukee General Hospital Backward Calculation

Start

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H00

0

00

A00

2

20

B00

3

30

D34

4

78

C20

2

40

E44

4

88

F410

3

713

G88

5

13

13

H13

132

15

15

Page 42: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

AON Network for Milwaukee General Hospital Backward Calculation

Start

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H00

0

00

A00

2

20

B00

3

30

D34

4

78

C22

2

44

E44

4

88

F410

3

713

G88

5

13

13

H13

132

15

15

Page 43: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

AON Network for Milwaukee General Hospital Backward Calculation

Start

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H00

0

00

A00

2

22

B01

3

34

D34

4

78

C22

2

44

E44

4

88

F410

3

713

G88

5

13

13

H13

132

15

15Slack=0Slack=0 Slack=0Slack=0

Slack=0Slack=0

Slack=0Slack=0

Slack=6Slack=6

Slack=1Slack=1Slack=1Slack=1

StartStart

Page 44: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

AON Network for Milwaukee General Hospital Backward Calculation

Start

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H00

0

00

A00

2

22

B01

3

34

D34

4

78

C22

2

44

E44

4

88

F410

3

713

G88

5

13

13

H13

132

15

15Slack=0Slack=0 Slack=0Slack=0

Slack=0Slack=0

Slack=0Slack=0

Slack=6Slack=6

Slack=1Slack=1Slack=1Slack=1

StartStartCriticalCritical

PathPath

Page 45: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Gantt Chart( 甘特图 )Earliest Start and Finish

Milwaukee General HospitalMilwaukee General HospitalMilwaukee General HospitalMilwaukee General Hospital

A Build internal componentsB Modify roof and floorC Construct collection stackD Pour concrete and install frameE Build high-temperature burnerF Install pollution control systemG Install air pollution deviceH Inspect and test

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 13 1415 16

Page 46: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Gantt ChartLatest Start and Finish

Milwaukee General HospitalMilwaukee General HospitalMilwaukee General HospitalMilwaukee General Hospital

A Build internal componentsB Modify roof and floorC Construct collection stackD Pour concrete and install frameE Build high-temperature burnerF Install pollution control systemG Install air pollution deviceH Inspect and test

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 13 1415 16

Page 47: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Using MS-Project 2003

Example and Practice

Page 48: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Milwaukee General Hospital’s Activities and Predecessors

Activity Description Processing

Time

Immediate Predecessors

A Build internal components 2 -

B Modify roof and floor 3 -

C Construct collection stack 2 A

D Pour concrete and install frame 4 A, B

E Build high-temperature burner 4 C

F Install pollution control system 3 C

G Install air pollution device 5 D, E

H Inspect and test 2 F, G

Page 49: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

PERT Activity Times ( 활동시간계산 )

3 time estimates (p781) Optimistic times (a), 낙관적 시간 Most-likely time (m), 보편적 시간 Pessimistic time (b), 비관적 시간

Assume to follow beta distribution ( 베타분포 가정 ), then

Expected time: t = (a + 4m + b)/6 Variance of times: s2 =v= (b - a)2/62

만약에 시간 항목들이 확정적이지 않다면만약에 시간 항목들이 확정적이지 않다면 ??????

Page 50: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Project Times ( 프로젝트 시간계산 )

평균 프로젝트 시간 , Expected project time (T) Sum of critical path activity times, t i

T = ti

프로젝트 분산 , Project variance (S2) Sum of critical path activitycritical path activity variances, vi

S2 = vi

Desired project completion time Random Variable (D)

Used to obtain probability of project completion!

)1,0(~

),,(~

NormS

TDZ

STNormD

Page 51: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Activity Expected Times and Variances ( 평균 활동시간 및 분산 )

Activity Description a m b t s2

A Build internal components 1 2 3 2 1/9

B Modify roof and floor 2 3 4 3 1/9

C Construct collection stack 1 2 3 2 1/9

D Pour concrete and install frame 1 4 4 3.5 1/4

E Build high-temperature burner 1 4 5 11/3 4/9

F Install pollution control system 2 3 4 3 1/9

G Install air pollution device 1 5 3 4 1/9

H Inspect and test 2 2 2 2 0

t = (a + 4m + b)/6

s2 = (b - a)2/62

Critical Path: A-C-E-G-H, T=2+2+11/3+4+2 = 123/9=13.667, S2=1/9+1/9+4/9+1/9=7/9=0.778

Suppose thatSuppose thatd = 15.43, thend = 15.43, then

0.29994.19/7

9/12343.15

Z

Page 52: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Converting to Standardized Variable

T = 13.67

s2 = 7/9

15.43 X

Normal Normal DistributionDistribution

mz = 0

s2Z = 1

Z2.0

Standardized Normal Standardized Normal DistributionDistribution

0.2778.0

667.1343.15

Z

)0.2()778.0

667.1343.15()43.15(

ZP

S

TDPDP

Page 53: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Obtaining the Probability( 프로젝트가 납기내에 끝날 확률계산 )

mz = 0

s Z = 1

Z2.0

Z .00 .01

0.0 .50000 .50399

: : : :

2.0 .97725 .97784 .97831

2.1 .98214 .98257 .98300

Standardized Normal Probability Standardized Normal Probability Table (Portion) [see Appendix I]Table (Portion) [see Appendix I]

Probabilities in bodyProbabilities in body

.02

.50798

.97725

Project Success Probability = Project Success Probability = 97.7%97.7%

Page 54: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Variability of Completion Time for Non-critical Paths주공정로 활동이 아닌 활동에 대한 주의

Variability of times for activities on non-critical paths must be considered when finding the probability of finishing in a specified time.

Variation in non-critical activity may cause change in critical path.

활동 시간의 변동이 있는 경우 , 비주공정로활동의 변동이 프로젝트 주공정로에 영향을 줄수 있다 !

Page 55: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Factors to Consider when Crashing( 프로젝트 시간 단축 요구시 고려사항 )

The amount by which an activity is crashed is, in fact, permissible.( 허용가능한 활동시간 단축범위 파악 )

Taken together, the shortened activity durations will enable one to finish the project by the due date.( 모든 사항을 고려해서 전체 프로젝트 수행시간을 단축시키는 방법 고안 )

The total cost of crashing is as small as possible. ( 가능한 비용을 최소화 하도록 함 )

Page 56: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Steps in Project Crashing( 赶工 ) Compute the crash cost per time period. For crash

costs assumed linear over time:

Using normal activity times, find the critical path If there is only one critical path, then select the

activity on this critical path that (a) can still be crashed, and (b) has the smallest crash cost per period. Note that a single activity may be common to more than one critical path

Update all activity times.

)Crash time time(Normal

cost) Normalcost(Crash periodper cost Crash

Page 57: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Example: Project Crashing Step 1

ANT=2CT=1

NC=$6CC=$10

BNT=5CT=2

NC=$9CC=$18

DNT=3CT=1

NC=$5CC=$9

CNT=4CT=3

NC=$6CC=$8

NT= Normal TimeCT= Crash TimeNC= Normal CostCC= Crash Cost

Step1: Prepare Network Diagram with Activity Cost

Page 58: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Example: Project CrashingStep 2

Step2: Calculation of Cost per time to expedite each activity

Activity

CC-NC

NT-CT(CC-NC) / (NT-CT)

Cost per time to

expedite

Times may be

shortened

A 4 1 4/1 4 1

B 9 3 9/3 3 3

C 2 1 2/1 2 1

D 4 2 4/2 2 2

Which activity should be expedited?Which activity should be expedited?

CT NT

NC

CC

Page 59: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Example: Project CrashingStep 3

Step3: Reducing the project completion time one at a time

Current Critical Path

Remaining Number of time activity may be shortened

Least-cost activity to

expedite (cost)

Total cost of all activities in network

Project completion

Time

ABD     $26 10

ABD A-1, B-3, D-2 D ($2) $28 9

ABD A-1, B-3, D-1 D ($2) $30 8

ABD A-1, B-3 B ($3) $33 7

ABCD A-1, B-3, C-1 A ($4)* $37 6

ABCD B-2, C-1 B and C ($5) $42 5

ABCD B-1 B ($3) $45 5

Page 60: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Example

Current Critical Path

Remaining Number of time activity may be shortened

Least-cost activity to

expedite (cost)

ABD    

ABD A-1, B-3, D-2 D ($2)

ABD A-1, B-3, D-1 D ($2)

ABD A-1, B-3 B ($3)

ABCD A-1, B-3, C-1 A ($4)*

ABCD B-2, C-1 B and C ($5)

ABCD B-1 B ($3)

ANT=2CT=1

NC=$6CC=$10

BNT=5CT=2

NC=$9CC=$18

DNT=3CT=1

NC=$5CC=$9

CNT=4CT=3

NC=$6CC=$8

PT=10TC=$26

A: 4 $/hB: 3 $/hC: 2 $/hD: 2 $/h

Page 61: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Example

Current Critical Path

Remaining Number of time activity may be shortened

Least-cost activity to

expedite (cost)

ABD    

ABD A-1, B-3, D-2 D ($2)

ABD A-1, B-3, D-1 D ($2)

ABD A-1, B-3 B ($3)

ABCD A-1, B-3, C-1 A ($4)*

ABCD B-2, C-1 B and C ($5)

ABCD B-1 B ($3)

ANT=2CT=1

NC=$6CC=$10

BNT=5CT=2

NC=$9CC=$18

DT=2

CT=1NC=$5CC=$9

CNT=4CT=3

NC=$6CC=$8

PT=9TC=$28

A: 4 $/hB: 3 $/hC: 2 $/hD: 2 $/h

Page 62: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Example

Current Critical Path

Remaining Number of time activity may be shortened

Least-cost activity to

expedite (cost)

ABD    

ABD A-1, B-3, D-2 D ($2)

ABD A-1, B-3, D-1 D ($2)

ABD A-1, B-3 B ($3)

ABCD A-1, B-3, C-1 A ($4)*

ABCD B-2, C-1 B and C ($5)

ABCD B-1 B ($3)

ANT=2CT=1

NC=$6CC=$10

BNT=5CT=2

NC=$9CC=$18

DT=1

CT=1NC=$5CC=$9

CNT=4CT=3

NC=$6CC=$8

PT=8TC=$30

A: 4 $/hB: 3 $/hC: 2 $/hD: 2 $/h

Page 63: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Example

Current Critical Path

Remaining Number of time activity may be shortened

Least-cost activity to

expedite (cost)

ABD    

ABD A-1, B-3, D-2 D ($2)

ABD A-1, B-3, D-1 D ($2)

ABD A-1, B-3 B ($3)

ABCD A-1, B-3, C-1 A ($4)*

ABCD B-2, C-1 B and C ($5)

ABCD B-1 B ($3)

ANT=2CT=1

NC=$6CC=$10

BT=4

CT=2NC=$9

CC=$18

DT=1

CT=1NC=$5CC=$9

CNT=4CT=3

NC=$6CC=$8

PT=7TC=$33

A: 4 $/hB: 3 $/hC: 2 $/hD: 2 $/h

Page 64: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Example

Current Critical Path

Remaining Number of time activity may be shortened

Least-cost activity to

expedite (cost)

ABD    

ABD A-1, B-3, D-2 D ($2)

ABD A-1, B-3, D-1 D ($2)

ABD A-1, B-3 B ($3)

ABCD A-1, B-3, C-1 A ($4)*

ABCD B-2, C-1 B and C ($5)

ABCD B-1 B ($3)

AT=1

CT=1NC=$6

CC=$10

BT=4

CT=2NC=$9

CC=$18

DT=1

CT=1NC=$5CC=$9

CNT=4CT=3

NC=$6CC=$8

PT=6TC=$37

A: 4 $/hB: 3 $/hC: 2 $/hD: 2 $/h

Page 65: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Example

Current Critical Path

Remaining Number of time activity may be shortened

Least-cost activity to

expedite (cost)

ABD    

ABD A-1, B-3, D-2 D ($2)

ABD A-1, B-3, D-1 D ($2)

ABD A-1, B-3 B ($3)

ABCD A-1, B-3, C-1 A ($4)*

ABCD B-2, C-1 B and C ($5)

ABCD B-1 B ($3)

AT=1

CT=1NC=$6

CC=$10

BT=3

CT=2NC=$9

CC=$18

DT=1

CT=1NC=$5CC=$9

CT=3

CT=3NC=$6CC=$8

PT=5TC=$42

A: 4 $/hB: 3 $/hC: 2 $/hD: 2 $/h

Page 66: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Example

Current Critical Path

Remaining Number of time activity may be shortened

Least-cost activity to

expedite (cost)

ABD    

ABD A-1, B-3, D-2 D ($2)

ABD A-1, B-3, D-1 D ($2)

ABD A-1, B-3 B ($3)

ABCD A-1, B-3, C-1 A ($4)*

ABCD B-2, C-1 B and C ($5)

ABCD B-1 B ($3)

AT=1

CT=1NC=$6

CC=$10

BT=3

CT=2NC=$9

CC=$18

DT=1

CT=1NC=$5CC=$9

CT=3

CT=3NC=$6CC=$8

PT=5TC=$42

A: 4 $/hB: 3 $/hC: 2 $/hD: 2 $/h

Page 67: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Advantages of PERT/CPM Especially useful when scheduling and controlling

large projects.

Straightforward concept and not mathematically complex.

Graphical networks aid perception of relationships among project activities.

Critical path & slack time analyses help pinpoint activities that need to be closely watched.

Project documentation and graphics point out who is responsible for various activities.

Applicable to a wide variety of projects. Useful in monitoring schedules and costs.

Page 68: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

Limitations of PERT/CPM

Assumes clearly defined, independent, & stable activities

Specified precedence relationships Activity times (PERT) follow

beta distribution Subjective time estimates Over-emphasis on critical path

Page 69: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

요약 프로젝트 관리는 일정을 맞추는 것이 매우 중요함 !

Project Management is important to meet the schedule.

MS-Projector 를 사용해 볼 것 !Use MS-Projector!

프로젝트 관리 방법 , Techniques Critical Path Analysis PERT Crashing Gantt Chart

용어 Terms: Project, PERT, CPM, Matrix Organization, Gantt Chart

Page 70: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

다음시간까지 할 일 !

Read Chapter 17 again and Chapter 5, 5s

Do HW#2 Play with MS-Project®

Page 71: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

HW#2

Find the definitions of the terms WBS, PERT, CPM, Critical Path, Slack

Time, Crashing

Review Solved Problem Problem 1, 2, 3 (on 736)

Solve these Problems 1, 9

USE MS-Project

Page 72: 생산운영관리 Ch. 17. 프로젝트 관리 Hansoo Kim ( 金翰秀 ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST

To be OM Expert !!!

UnderstandingProblem

DevelopingProper Model

Finding SolutionTechnique

Communicable with other OM People

Domain Expert(Studying general

Problems and Working Experience)

Operations Research(경영과학)

Mathematical Programming, and Computational

Methodology

Existing Models:LP Model,

Queueing Model, Simulation Model,PERT/CPM Model

Develop New Models

OM EXPERT!!Project Management!!!