> Equities MENA PROMOTIONAL DOCUMENT FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY January 2009

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Text of > Equities MENA PROMOTIONAL DOCUMENT FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY January 2009

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  • > Equities MENA PROMOTIONAL DOCUMENT FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY January 2009
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  • Socit Gnrale Asset Management January 2009 Non Promotional document. This document is intended for professional clients as defined in the European Directive 2004/39/EC 2 SGAM Fund Equities MENA What is MENA (Middle East and North Africa)? 3 Why invest in MENA countries?.. 6 MENA & Oil..... 13 MENA & real estate ....16 Team & Process ..... 20 Appendix..30 Contents
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  • Socit Gnrale Asset Management January 2009 Non Promotional document. This document is intended for professional clients as defined in the European Directive 2004/39/EC 3 SGAM Fund Equities MENA What is MENA (Middle East and North Africa)? 3 Why invest in MENA countries?.. 6 MENA & Oil ....13 MENA & Real Estate...... 16 Team & Process ..... 20 Appendix..30
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  • Socit Gnrale Asset Management January 2009 Non Promotional document. This document is intended for professional clients as defined in the European Directive 2004/39/EC 4 What is MENA? Egypt Real GDP growth: 19.5% Nominal GDP 2007: USD 127.9bn Population: 73.6m Algeria Real GDP growth: 12.1% Nominal GDP: USD 131.6bn Population: 34.4m Morocco Real GDP growth: 13.0% Nominal GDP: USD 73.4bn Population: 30.7m Tunisia Real GDP growth: 16.6% Nominal GDP: USD 35.0bn Population: 10.3m Oman Real GDP growth: 20.5% Nominal GDP: USD 40.1bn Population: 2.6m Qatar Real GDP growth: 37.5% Nominal GDP 2006: USD 67.8bn Population: 0.8m Kuwait Real GDP growth: 23.9% Nominal GDP: USD 111.3bn Population: 3.2m Bahrain Real GDP growth: 22.5% Nominal GDP: USD 19.6bn Population: 0.8m UAE Real GDP growth: 27.1% Nominal GDP: USD 192.6bn Population: 4.2m Saudi Arabia Real GDP growth: 15.2% Nominal GDP: USD 376.0bn Population: 23.7m Lebanon Real GDP growth: 8.1% Nominal GDP 2006: USD 24.6bn Population: 3.7m Jordan Real GDP growth: 20.3% Nominal GDP: USD 16.0bn Population: 5.7m Sources: Nominal GDP figures & estimates 2007: IMF; Real three year compounded GDP growth as of end of 2007: IMF.
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  • Socit Gnrale Asset Management January 2009 Non Promotional document. This document is intended for professional clients as defined in the European Directive 2004/39/EC 5 The region is linked by cultural and linguistic ties The Middle East has a population of 200 million people, of which half are under the age of 20 GCC produces over a third of global oil supply and represents over 60% of global oil reserves Throughout most of the GCC a zero tax regime exists The majority of currencies are pegged to the USD Source: World Bank Report August 2007, MENA 2007 Economic Developments and Prospects. What is MENA?
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  • Socit Gnrale Asset Management January 2009 Non Promotional document. This document is intended for professional clients as defined in the European Directive 2004/39/EC 6 SGAM Fund Equities MENA What is MENA (Middle East and North Africa)? 3 Why invest in MENA countries?.. 6 MENA & Oil ...13 MENA & Real Estate...... 16 Team & Process ..... 20 Appendix..30
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  • Socit Gnrale Asset Management January 2009 Non Promotional document. This document is intended for professional clients as defined in the European Directive 2004/39/EC 7 Positive Growth Outlook Attractive Valuations MENA & Oil Real Estate Why invest in MENA countries?
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  • Socit Gnrale Asset Management January 2009 Non Promotional document. This document is intended for professional clients as defined in the European Directive 2004/39/EC 8 Source: IMF Why invest in MENA countries? Economic growth
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  • Socit Gnrale Asset Management January 2009 Non Promotional document. This document is intended for professional clients as defined in the European Directive 2004/39/EC 9 Why invest in MENA countries? MENA growing faster than the rest of the world Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, Nov 2008
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  • Socit Gnrale Asset Management January 2009 Non Promotional document. This document is intended for professional clients as defined in the European Directive 2004/39/EC 10 The prospective infrastructure spending is the main growth driver. The table below shows that the GCC countries are currently planning on spending US$1.5 trillion in projects in the five years to come. Why invest in MENA countries? Government expenditure & structural reforms Source: HSBC Global Research, Meed, Thomson Financial Datastream, as of August 2007. Infrastructure spendingAnnual average infrastructure spend US$ trillion(% of 2006 GDP) Bahrain0.0343.2 Kuwait0.2549.1 Oman0.0525.2 Qatar0.1453.1 Saudia Arabia0.3620.2 UAE0.6680.7 Total GCC 1.4941.1 GCC countries: Projected infrastructure spend (approximate five-year horizon) Country
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  • Socit Gnrale Asset Management January 2009 Non Promotional document. This document is intended for professional clients as defined in the European Directive 2004/39/EC 11 Selected market performance (in US$) Why invest in MENA countries? Attractive valuations due to stock market boom and bust Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 13 January 2009. Indices used are MSCI Egypt Index, Dubai Financial Market General Index, Abu Dhabi Securities Market Index, Tadawul All Share Index and Doha Securities Market 20 Index, capital return in US $.
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  • Socit Gnrale Asset Management January 2009 Non Promotional document. This document is intended for professional clients as defined in the European Directive 2004/39/EC 12 P/EP/BDiv Yield % * Doha Bank6.11.410.6 Aldar Properties2.70.72.4 Eipico8.21.76.9 Qatar Electricity13.72.64.6 Commercial Bank of Qatar7.51.45.6 Arabtech2.31.313.6 Qatar Navigation7.30.65.7 Emaar Properties2.20.48.5 Burgan Bank6.71.610.5 National Socit Gnrale Bank5.51.21.4 Company Name Source: Zawya Based on price as of 13/01/2009 - trailing 12 months earnings adjusted for corporate actions * 2008 dividend based on current price Why invest in MENA countries? Attractive valuations
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  • Socit Gnrale Asset Management January 2009 Non Promotional document. This document is intended for professional clients as defined in the European Directive 2004/39/EC 13 SGAM Fund Equities MENA What is MENA (Middle East and North Africa)? 3 Why invest in MENA countries?.. 6 MENA & Oil ... 13 MENA & Real Estate... 16 Team & Process ..... 20 Appendix..30
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  • Socit Gnrale Asset Management January 2009 Non Promotional document. This document is intended for professional clients as defined in the European Directive 2004/39/EC 14 MENA & Oil Estimated deficits are small compared to recent surpluses Cumulative Fiscal Surplus 2003-2008 (USD bn) Cumulative Fiscal Surplus 2003-2008 (USD bn) Bahrain6.4-0.9 Kuwait183.713.1 Oman22.5-3.1 Qatar34.1-1.2 Saudi Arabia378.1-26.5 UAE221.912.8 Source: Regional Central Banks
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  • Socit Gnrale Asset Management January 2009 Non Promotional document. This document is intended for professional clients as defined in the European Directive 2004/39/EC 15 $ exuberance anxious net borrowers distress Source: Bloomberg MENA & Oil Oil Price - impact on MENA region producer countries
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  • Socit Gnrale Asset Management January 2009 Non Promotional document. This document is intended for professional clients as defined in the European Directive 2004/39/EC 16 SGAM Fund Equities MENA What is MENA (Middle East and North Africa)? 3 Why invest in MENA countries?.. 6 MENA & Oil .......13 MENA & Real Estate...... 16 Team & Process ..... 20 Appendix..30
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  • Socit Gnrale Asset Management January 2009 Non Promotional document. This document is intended for professional clients as defined in the European Directive 2004/39/EC 17 UK USA Israel Lebanon UAE Morocco Jordan Egypt 12.00% 9.73% 6.56% 5.50% 5.13% 4.37% 4.12% Source: www.globalpropertyguide.com MENA & Real Estate Gross rental yields
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  • Socit Gnrale Asset Management January 2009 Non Promotional document. This document is intended for professional clients as defined in the European Directive 2004/39/EC 18 Source: Citi Investment Research 050001000015000200002500030000 Cairo Marrakesh Beijing Berlin Dubai Sydney Singapore Paris New York London City $ Price per Square Metre MENA & Real Estate Comparable apartment prices (USD per sq. m)
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  • Socit Gnrale Asset Management January 2009 Non Promotional document. This document is intended for professional clients as defined in the European Directive 2004/39/EC 19 A value orientated investment approach tailored to take advantage of inefficiencies in MENA region Total return strategy Emphasis on company meetings and in-depth research to identify high quality stocks at reasonable valuation levels. Concentrated portfolio 40-60 stocks High conviction positions No country/sector constraints Strategy The Style: The Process: The Product: The Aim: The History: Investing in the region since 1997 Built up regional know-how that is difficult to replicate SG Arab Board provide further credibility & expertise
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  • Socit Gnrale Asset Management January 2009 Non Promotional document. This document is intended for professional clients as defined in the European Directive 2004/39/EC 20 SGAM Fund Equities MENA What is MENA (Middle East and North Africa)? 3 Why invest in MENA countries?.. 6 MENA & Oil ...13 MENA & Real Estate.16 Team