산업경영공학과 IMEN 315 인간공학 7. Decision Making DEFINITION OF DECISION MAKING qa decision-making task (a)number of alternatives (b)information available to the

산업경영공학과

IMEN 315 인간공학

7. Decision Making

DEFINITION OF DECISION MAKING a decision-making task

(a) number of alternatives (b) information available to the option(c) timeframe relatively long(d) uncertainty

three phases for decision making1) acquiring and perceiving info or cues for the decision2) generating and selecting hypotheses or situation assessments3) planning and selecting choices

DECISION-MAKING MODELS normative model (rational model) – mathematical models; specify what

people ideally should do; not how people actually perform DM tasks descriptive models – cognitive processes associated with DM behavior



Normative Decision Models revolve around the central concept of utility, the overall value of a choice multiattribute utility theory



expected value theory – uncertainty; replaces the concept of utility with expected value; relatively limited because many choices in life have different values

to different people subjective expected utility (SEU) theory

Descriptive Decision Models people often rely on simplified shortcuts or rules-of-thumb (heuristics) satisfying (Simon, 1957) – not absolute best or optimal decision but good

enough or satisfactory decision the amount of info exceeds cognitive processing limitations and time is

limited – using simplifying heuristics



HEURISTICS AND BIASES usually very powerful and efficient but not guarantee the best solution occasionally lead to systematic flaws and errors – biases

Information Processing Limits in Decision Making

what happens in WM?1. cue reception and

integration2. hypothesis generation

and selection3. plan generation and

action choice



Heuristics and Biases in Receiving and Using Cues1. attention to a limited number of cues2. cue primacy and anchoring – first impressions are lasting3. inattention to later cues4. cue salience5. overweighting of unreliable cues

Heuristics and Biases in Hypothesis Generation, Evaluation and Selection6. generation of a limited number of hypotheses7. availability heuristic – frequency, recency8. representativeness heuristic9. overconfidence10. cognitive tunneling11. confirmation bias



Heuristics and Biases in Action Selection1. retrieve a small number of actions2. availability heuristic for actions – recency, frequency, strong association3. availability of possible outcomes -- hindsight bias4. framing bias

choose between a certain loss of $50 and an equal chance of losing $100 or breaking even risky option

choose between a certain gain of $50 and an equal chance of mak-ing nothing or $100 conservative option

sunk cost bias – tendency to choose the risky loss over the sure one



DEPENDENCY OF DECISION MAKING ON THE DECISION CONTEXT

Skill-, Rule-, and Knowledge-Based Behavior



Recognition-Primed Decision Making experts simply recognize a pattern of cues and recall a single course of

action, which is then implemented representativeness heuristic, rule-based behavior 3 critical assumptions of the RPD model

1. experience to generate a plausible option2. time pressure not critical because of rapid pattern matching3. know how to respond from past experience



FACTORS AFFECTING DM PERFORMANCE: ANINTEGRATED DESCRIPTION OF DECISION MAKING

Mental simulation

Poor learningInaccurate mental models



IMPROVING HUMAN DECISION MAKINGTask RedesignDecision-Support Systems cognitive prosthesis – person in a subservient role to the computer –

good for anticipated conditions cognitive tools – support rather than replace the decision makerDecision Matrices and Trees cognitive process of weighting alternative actions – normative multiat-

tribute utility theorySpreadsheets one of the most common decision-support tools – large number of errors

contained in spreadsheets (24% to 91%)Simulation not always enhance decision quality but increase confidence simulations are incomplete and can be inaccurate



Expert Systems cognitive prostheses – most effective with routine and well-defined situa-

tions cognitive tools – provide feedback to the dicision maker to improve DMDisplays reduce the cognitive load of info seeking and integration configural displays

Training improving analytical DM – train to overcome heuristics/biases normative

utility methods for DM training to do a better job at metacognition development of mental models and management of uncertainty and time

pressure at the rule-based level, enhance perceptual and pattern-recognition skills at the automatic level, focus on relevant cues in raw data form

Documents

산업경영공학과 IMEN 315 인간공학 7. Decision Making DEFINITION OF DECISION MAKING qa decision-making task (a)number of alternatives (b)information available to the