풍력시장의 시장전망 및 발전전략 - keei.re.kr · PDF file풍력산업의 시장전망 및 발전전략 2012.09.14. 김 만 응 (사)한국선급, 신성장산업본부장

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  • 2012.09.14.

    (),

    E-mail: [email protected]

  • 1.

    2.

    3.

    4.

    CONTENTS

  • 1.

  • -

    11 41,721MW

    6 ( )

    10 6%, (CAGR) 21%

    2008(28,190MW, 42%), 2009(38,103MW, 35%)

    08 CAGR : [, 6.9% ]

    10 (6,810MW, 2011)

    10 31% , 09

    10 - 42% 11 44%

    11 10,226MW

    10 24.5%

    10 -7% , 40.5%

    11 21,005MW

    10 -6.9% , 17GW

    10 54% , OECD 45.2% (, )

    OECD 11 52.1%

  • -

    Year: Installed MW Increase % Cumulative MW Increase %

    2006 15,016 74,306

    2007 19,791 32% 94,005 27%

    2008 28,190 42% 122,158 30%

    2009 38,103 35% 160,084 31%

    2010 39,404 3% 199,520 25%

    2011 41,712 6% 241,029 21%

    22.7% 26.5%Average growth - 5 years

    0

    50,000

    100,000

    150,000

    200,000

    250,000

    0

    9,000

    18,000

    27,000

    36,000

    45,000

    1983 1990 1995 2000 2005 2011

    Cu

    mu

    lati

    ve M

    W

    MW

    per

    yea

    r

    Year

    Installed Wind Power in the World- Annual and Cumulative -

    Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant - March 2012

    World market growth rates, 2006~2011

    Annual & cumulative global wind energy development 1983-2011

  • 11 6,810MW , 2

    GE Energy 10(43%) 11(30%)

    11 1,267MW , 6

    1

    2

    3

    , 11 330MW ( - 2,105MW)

    , 4, 5, 6

    7

    11 178MW 25.9%

  • -

    3 1

    5 , 11 17,631MW

    62,412MW 2 30%

    Top 15 7

    Goldwind, Sinovel, United Power 20 11 90%

    1

    11 3 , 6

    11 3,300MW , 16,266MW

    FIT , Generation Based Incentive, Renewable Energy Certificate

    (Suzulon( 37%), Enercon-India, Gamesa, Vestas)

    2020 20%

    11 (166MW)

    FIT FIT

    : JSW, Fuji Heavy Industry, Mitsubishi Heavy Industry - 11 68%

    : REpower, Enercon, GE Energy

    2,595MW

  • - Top 10

    Country 2009 2010 2011 Share % Cum. Share %

    P.R. China 25,853 44,781 62,412 25.9% 26%

    USA 35,159 40,274 47,084 19.5% 45%

    Germany 25,813 27,364 29,248 12.1% 58%

    Spain 18,784 20,300 21,350 8.9% 66%

    India 10,827 12,966 16,266 6.7% 73%

    UK 4,340 5,862 7,155 3.0% 76%

    France 4,775 5,961 6,836 2.8% 79%

    Italy 4,845 5,793 6,733 2.8% 82%

    Canada 3,321 4,011 5,278 2.2% 84%

    Portugal 3,474 3,837 4,214 1.7% 86%

    Total 137,191 171,149 206,576

    Percent of World 85.7% 85.8% 85.7%

    Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant - March 2012

    Accu. Accu. Accu. Accu. Growth rate 3 years

    end end end end 2010-2011 average

    Country 2008 2009 2010 2011 % %

    P.R. China 12,121 25,853 44,781 62,412 39.4% 72.7%

    USA 25,237 35,159 40,274 47,084 16.9% 23.1%

    Germany 23,933 25,813 27,364 29,248 6.9% 6.9%

    Spain 16,453 18,784 20,300 21,350 5.2% 9.1%

    India 9,655 10,827 12,966 16,266 25.5% 19.0%

    UK 3,263 4,340 5,862 7,155 22.1% 29.9%

    France 3,671 4,775 5,961 6,836 14.7% 23.0%

    Italy 3,731 4,845 5,793 6,733 16.2% 21.7%

    Canada 2,371 3,321 4,011 5,278 31.6% 30.6%

    Portugal 2,829 3,474 3,837 4,214 9.8% 14.2%

    Total "Ten" 103,263 137,191 171,149 206,576 20.7% 26.0%

    Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant - March 2012

    The 10 largest markets by the end of 2011 (cumulative MW)

    Growth rates in the Top 10 markets

  • -

    470MW (11)

    10 2/3

    , , , ,

    - : Ormonde(150MW), Sheringham Shoal(39.6MW), Walney phase2(36MW), Greater Gabbard(104.4MW)

    - : Avedore Holme(3.6MW)

    - : BARD Offshore 1(30MW)

    - : Windfloat(2MW)

    - : Rudong Intertidal Demonstration Project Phase 1(99.3MW), Donghai Bridge Offshore Wind Phase 2(8.6MW)

    4GW (3,987MW, 11)

    ,

    3MW 8

    12 3,899MW (, , , , )

    - : Thorn Bank Phase II and III, : Anholt

    - : BARD Offshore I, Borkum West II Phase I

    - : Greater Gabbard, Sheringham Shoal, Gwynt y Mor, Lincs, London Array Phase 1, Teesside

    - : Donghai Bridge Offshore Wind Phase 2, Longyuan Rudong Intertidal Project Phase 2

    5 (, ) (, )

  • - Top 10

    11 1 Vestas(DK) Goldwind(PRC) Sinovel(PRC) 2

    Vestas Goldwind 11 9,002MW(22.3%)

    Goldwind 10 4 11 2

    GE Energy(US) 3 0.5%

    Gamesa(ES) 4 10 8 11 4

    Enercon(GE) 5 Suzulon Group 6

    9.2%

    11 10 1.3%, 09 4.8%

    Dongfang Electric Top 10 12 , 11 Mingyang Top 10

    United Power 2 8 , XEMC Sewind 13 14

    Top 10 4

    11 MW

    5 5 140

    Goldwind 09 1.5MW 3 11 123

    - 79(1.5MW), 34(1.5MW), 11(1.5MW)

    United Power SANY 1.5MW 6

  • - Top 10

    Accu. Supplied Share Accu. Share

    MW MW 2011 MW accu.

    2010 2011 % 2011 %

    VESTAS (DK) 45,547 5,213 12.9% 50,760 20.9%

    GOLDWIND (PRC) 9,055 3,789 9.4% 12,844 5.3%

    GE WIND (US) 26,871 3,542 8.8% 30,412 12.5%

    GAMESA (S) 21,812 3,309 8.2% 25,120 10.3%

    ENERCON (GE) 22,644 3,188 7.9% 25,832 10.6%

    SUZLON GROUP (IND) 17,301 3,104 7.7% 20,405 8.4%

    SINOVEL (PRC) 10,044 2,945 7.3% 12,989 5.3%

    UNITED POWER (PRC) 2,435 2,859 7.1% 5,294 2.2%

    SIEMENS (DK) 13,538 2,540 6.3% 16,078 6.6%

    MINGYANG (PRC) 1,799 1,178 2.9% 2,976 1.2%

    Others 34,882 8,693 21.5% 43,575 17.9%

    Total 205,927 40,358 100% 246,284 101%

    Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant - March 2012

    The Top-10 suppliers in 2011

    VESTAS (DK) 12.9%

    GOLDWIND (PRC) 9.4%

    GE WIND (US) 8.8%

    GAMESA (S) 8.2% ENERCON (GE) 7.9%

    SUZLON GROUP (IND) 7.7%

    SINOVEL (PRC) 7.3%

    UNITED POWER (PRC) 7.1%

    SIEMENS (DK) 6.3%

    MINGYANG (PRC) 2.9%Others 21.5%

    Top-10 Suppliers (Global) in 2011

    Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant - March 2012

    % of the total market 40,358MW

    VESTAS (DK)

    GOLDWIND (PRC)GE WIND (US)

    GAMESA (S)

    ENERCON (GE)

    SUZLON GROUP (IND)

    SINOVEL (PRC)

    UNITED POWER (PRC)

    SIEMENS (DK)

    MINGYANG (PRC)

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    14%

    16%

    18%

    0 5 10 15 20 25

    Glo

    bal M

    ark

    et S

    hare

    No. of markets (Total supply >50MW)

    Top-Ten manufacturers market strength and positions in 2011

    DomesticSupplier

    GlobalSupplier

    Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant - March 2012

    Global ,

    "

  • 2.

  • -

  • ,

    2009 , 40%

    (6 MW )

    ,

    3~3.6MW : 3(03~08)

    - Siemens(3~3.6MW), Vestas(3MW), Sinovel(3MW), GE(3.6MW), WindWinD(3MW)

    4(08~) 4~7MW

    -

    4 5

  • 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    OffshoreGrid

    UpWind

    WindBarriers

    WindSec

    Wind Energy (The Facts)

    TradeWind

    Seanergy 2020

    Twenties

    TOPWind

    Orecca

    past projects ongoing projects (EU Funded)

  • tool

    IEA Wind Task 26 Multi-national Case Study of the Financial Cost of Wind Energy; Work Package 1 Final Report Large-Scale Offshore Wind Power in the United States: Executive Summary

    Estimation of Seismic Load Demand for a Wind Turbine in the Time Domain: Preprint On Hurricane Risk to Offshore Wind Turbines in US Waters. Paper No. 20811

    Modal Dynamics of Large Wind Turbines with Different Support Structures

    Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration (OC3) for IEA Wind Task 23 Offshore Wind Technology and Deployment Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration within IEA Wind Annex XXIII: Phase II Results Regarding Monopile Foundation Modeling Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration within IEA Wind Task 23: Phase IV Results Regarding Floating Wind Turbine Modeling; Preprint

    Definition of the Floating System for Phase IV of OC3 Dynamics of Offshore Floating Wind Turbines Analysis of Three Concepts Model Development and Loads Analysis of a Wind Turbine on a Floating Offshore Tension Leg Platform New Modeling Tool Analyzes Floating Platform Concepts for Offshore Wind Turbines Quantitative Comparison of the Responses of Three Floating Platforms NREL Computer Models Integrate Wind Turbines with Floating Platforms

  • Topic_01 (8 ) : Modeling & Analysis Design Tools to Assess Offshore Wind Turbine Technologies : computational tool / floating offshore / fatigue

    Topic_02 (7 ) : Innovative Offshore Wind Plant System Design Studies : cost-of-energy estimates

    Topic_03 (4 ) : Innovative Offshore Wind Turbine Component Development : aerodynamic control / turbine blades

    Topic_04 (1 ) : Offshore Wind Market and Economic Analysis

    Topic_05 (3 ) : Environmental Risk Reduction : bird / sea turtle / marine mammal

    Topic_06 (1 ) : Manufacturing and Supply Chain Development

    Topic_07 (4 ) : Transmission Planning and Interconnection Studies : electric grid / wind development sites

    Topic_08 (4 ) : Optimized Infrastructure and Operations