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中国适应气候变化项目会议. 气候变化对草地畜牧业的影响. The impact of Climate Change on Pasture Husbandry in China. 中国农业大学 潘学标. Pan Xuebiao China Agricultural University. 提纲 Outline. 1 气候变化对北方草地畜牧业地区边界有影响 Impacts of Climate change (CC) on regional border of grassland and pasture husbandry 2 气候年际变化牧草生物量的影响 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The impact of Climate Change on Pasture Husbandry in China Pan XuebiaoChina Agricultural University
Outline1 Impacts of Climate change (CC) on regional border of grassland and pasture husbandry2 CC on grass biomass3 CC on pasture and grass phenological period 4 SPACSYS CC on feed crop development and growth with SPACSYS model5 Conclusion
1 Impacts of Climate change (CC) on regional border of grassland and pasture husbandry
, Warmer and dryer, lower precipitation in middle east The border of farming-pastoral ecotone moves southwards
1961-1990T0Distribution of accumulative degree day in Inner Mongolia1961-1990 T0
1991-2005T0 1991-2005T0Distribution of accumulative degree day in Inner Mongolia1991-2005 T0
1961-1990T0Distribution of precipitation during T0 in Inner Mongolia1961-1990
,1991-2005T0Distribution of precipitation during T0 in Inner Mongolia1991-2005
1961-1990Distribution of Coefficient of Humidity in Inner Mongolia1961-1990
,1991-2005Distribution of Coefficient of Humidity in Inner Mongolia1991-2005
The moving of border of farming-pastoral ecotone 1961-19901971-20001976-2005
2 Impact of CC on pasture and grass biomass
:Field Survey over 3years
Biomass was very differentXilinhotSonid ZuoqiDarhan Muminggan qi
biomass
Chart1
189.0514.688888888985.3666666667
82.659259259366.366666666787.9
210.385714285754.0533333333181.556
(g/m2)
N4215'37.6"E11605'46.1"1211
20062007080520080816
cmgg
B112293.8F11474.50.91119333.1415.99
B1222553.545.620.4254100.3
B13282225.510.9335415.31.83521.860.38
B14430727.594854.881.59
B15323613.5531610.125221023.079.38
B16614.55.4
3 Impacts of CC on phenological period of grass and its simulation
correlation of the period of seedling establishment and the brown period in two species (China Leymus and Needlegrass)Date of Leymus beginning growthDate of Needlegrass beginning growthNeedlegrassLeymusDate of grass scorch
1995-2007 Change of the period of seedling establishment and the brown period from 1995 to 2007 in three grass speciesChina LeymusWheatgrassCinquefoilthe brown periodperiod of seedling establishment
Change of the phenological period in two grass species China Leymus NeedlegrassChina Leymus NeedlegrassChina Leymus
China Leymus NeedlegrassNeedlegrassMaturity dateFlowering dateseedling establishmentthe brown period
correlation of the period of seedling establishment and temperature in spring (a); correlation of the period of flowering and precipitation (b) of Wheatgrass at Xianghuang Qi Spring TemperaturePrecipitation in July
Correlation analysis of climatic factor and phenological period in three grass species*P0.05 **: P0.01
,,Development Grass simulation model To simulate development of Leymus and needlgrass et al
Phenological stage index system
Phenological period model
DSI
Impact of temperature and light on grass development
Parameters
Range of index value for each phenological period
Modelling test
Validation of Phenological period simulationObservationObservationneedlgrassLeymusSimulationSimulation
Comparison of simulated phenological period and measured phenological period
Chart1
133128
120120
113121
116105
118112
124122
119117
113111
111120
106108
121117
115120
107121
(y)
(d)
50525d50525
19951261348641995203198-525234216-18324259258-11267
1996123122-111996193197416261251-10100271
1997118116-241997238191-472209261227-341156266242-24576149127-22484
1998113105-8641998201193-864222208-14196236232-416271247-24576159143-16256
1999123113-101001999203194-981222205-17289240228-12144261244-17289139132-749
2000123122-112000197190-749214201-13169240223-17289266238-28784144117-27729
2001123116-7492001266235-31961144120-24576
2002119111-8642002199193-636224208-16256240233-749264248-16256146138-864
2003118115-392003267248-19361150134-16256
2004129110-193612004269237-321024141128-13169
2005126118-8642005209189-20400220202-18324240225-15225261247-14196136130-636
200620062652761112126627711121
2007125125002007273239-341156149115-341156
781671
5410254102
1995107120131691995213192-21441234209-25625255233-22484282248-341156176129-472209
1996115117241996207190-17289234209-25625249237-12144287253-341156173137-361296
1997106117111211997279241-381444174125-492401
1998102102001998204192-12144218209-981239236-39296252-441936195151-441936
1999113111-241999202194-864235209-26676257232-25625269248-21441157138-19361
2000103119162562000295235-603600193117-765776
20011041128642001250230-20400147119-28784
2002124109-152252002211190-21441257247-10100134139525
200311311741620031841991522519621721441243247416285264-21441173148-25625
2004111108-392004216178-381444229195-341156259219-401600278234-441936168127-411681
20051121175252005281240-411681170124-462116
20061111209812006193192-11230210-20400261232-29841278248-30900168129-391521
2007103120172892007234185-492401251198-532809270222-482304280238-421764178119-593481
12633049400437191519120731
9.856665062519.522423005422.371857321223.049635881834.183891843139.933598732
5338453384
1995133125-864199520721710100213261273
1996120118-24199619421016256200245268
19971131196361997210196-14196225217-864252241-11121266260-636154142-12144
1998116100-162561998188192416210215525248247-112632641114816517289
1999118109-98119991861948641972121522523623939256255-11139147864
2000124118-6362000197196-11206218121442422453925826352513514611121
2001119107-121442001208184-24576217199-18324247223-24576262239-23529144133-11121
2002113104-981200218619711121196229331089235254
20031111154162003192190-24202208636246232-14196255247-864145133-12144
2004106105-11200419019663619921617289231247
2005121113-8642005227189-381444239206-331089256232-24576265248-17289145136-981
2006115116112006216206-1010023623600257235-22484268248-20400154133-21441
2007107117101002007254250-416148134-14196
8841470
166521412665395276615497
8.160882305211.222351646213.79699760315.716233645519.571663189416.5786006647
53518-0.31.055.503810-0.51451540281412535200.4030150.65
1125351412-0.255-0.150.96577590
50525d505250.95
199512613610100199520320411
1996123130749199619320613169234234002592590026728013169142145
1997118117-111997238196-4217642612621127128716256149158
1998113107-6361998201191-10100261232-29841266248-18324149132
1999123115-8641999203196-749222210-12144236228-864271244-27729159138
2000123123002000197195-24222212-10100240230-10100261246-15225139132
2001123118-5252001214211-39240229-11121266244-22484144122
2002119117-242002199195-416266237-29841144120
2003118117-112003224214-10100240233-749264248-16256146132
2004129116-131692004267249-18324150133
2005126120-6362005209192-17289269247-22484141132
20062006220209-11121240232-864261244-17289136125
2007125126112007265261-416
486339273247-26676149122
146133
5410254102
1995107125183241995213200-13169
19961151194161996207191-16256234219-15225255237-18324282253-29841176129
1997106120141961997234214-20400249233-16256287248-391521173130
1998102105391998204191-13169279248-31961174129
1999113113001999202192-10100218211-749239229-10100296245-512601195141
2000103120172892000235209-26676257227-30900269243-26676157131
2001104116121442001295238-573249193119
2002124110-141962002211191-20400250239-11121147124
2003113118525200318419713169257247-10100134138
2004111109-242004216185-3196119621216256243238-525285254-31961173137
20051121197492005229217-12144259222-371369278238-401600168130
20061111209812006193197416281240-411681170122
2007103122193612007234190-441936230217-13169261236-25625278253-25625168134
16941263251208-431849270226-441936280244-361296178123
11.4213.431919.003599.0014937.00169.69129.77
15.4922.6733.90
5338453384
1995133126-7491995207205-24
19961201200019961941973921324226127098127328916256141164
19971131218641997210199-11121200222245241-416268257-11121149138
1998116102-14196199818819139225219-636252238-14196266255-11121154135
1999118111-749199918619041621021339248228-20400263244-19361148143
2000124120-4162000197196-1119721013169236228-864256244-12144139134
2001119110-9812001208186-2248420621711121242235-749258251-749135132
2002113110-39200218619610100217203-14196247221-26676262237-25625144128
20031111198642003192190-241962263090023524611121254262864142153
200410610600200419019000202209749246227-19361255243-12144145125
2005121116-5252005227188-391521199213141962312321124724700142142
2006115118392006216196-20400239217-22484256225-31961265240-25625145125
2007107118111212007236217-19361257237-20400268253-15225154136
6831148254247-749148130
11691487145137
6.849.35161145667857
10.7315.9318.09
358104550525
635201.18612253515131.25234213-21441
50525d50525
1995126136101001995203197-636
1996123130749199619320411121222207-15225
1997118120241997238192-462116222210-12144
1998113109-4161998201192-981214203-11121
1999123118-5251999203197-636
2000123125242000197190-749224208-16256
2001123119-4162002199192-749
2002119119002005209191-18324
200311812024372220205-15225
2004129119-10100
2005126122-416
20071251272453384
003381995207206-11
199619420286453384
1997210199-11121
533841998188197981213227
1995133128-5251999186193749200221
1996120120002000197195-24225217-864
19971131218642001208191-17289210216636
1998116105-1112120021861991316919721013169
1999118112-636200319219311206213749
2000124122-242004190199981217208-981
2001119117-242005227190-37136919622327729
2002113111-242006216200-16256202210864
2003111120981200719921617289
200410610824827239207-321024
2005121117-4161199236218-18324
20061151205258.94
200710712114196
5802488
91813.33
6.06
8080
140140
50525d
199512613610100
1996123130749
199711812024
1998113109-416
1999123118-525
200012312524
2001123119-416
200211911900
200311812024
2004129119-10100
2005126122-416
200712512724
1995133128-525
199612012000
1997113121864
1998116105-11121
1999118112-636
2000124122-24
2001119117-24
2002113111-24
2003111120981
200410610824
2005121117-416
2006115120525
200710712114196
918
6.06
0.5830951895
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Multiple R0.561791111
R Square0.3156092524
Adjusted R Square0.2845005821
5.2038541038
24
dfSSMSF
1274.737854251274.73785425110.1453790521Significance FUpper 95% 95.0% 95.0%
22595.76214574927.0800975340.004278802596.915195030715.080756386396.9151950307
23870.50.87067141910.18398445140.8706714191
Coefficientst StatP-value
Intercept55.997975708519.72985721482.83823522380.0095659811Lower 95%
1260.52732793520.16555665383.18518116470.004278802515.0807563863
0.1839844514120
240
50525
1995203197-636120
199619320411121240
1998201192-981
1999203197-636
2000197190-749
2002199192-749
2005209191-18324
1995207206-11
1996194202864
1997210199-11121
1998188197981
1999186193749
2000197195-24
2001208191-17289
200218619913169
200319219311
2004190199981
2005227190-371369
2006216200-16256
200.8196.53181
12.96247048314.841063667812.94
0.06456402920.0246316351R0.0317
0.1780449381
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Multiple R0.1811077589
R Square0.0328000203
Adjusted R Square-0.0276499784
11.2468494406
18
dfSSMSFSignificance F
168.634042553268.63404255320.54259753560.472021575
162023.8659574468126.4916223404
172092.5
Coefficientst StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95% 95.0% 95.0%
Intercept279.6542553191107.94223846862.59077687550.019706391350.8269334973508.48157714150.8269334973508.481577141
197-0.40531914890.5502476718-0.73661220160.472021575-1.57179209650.7611537986-1.57179209650.7611537986
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
203
1196.9691489362-3.9691489362-0.363773437
2201.8329787234-0.8329787234-0.0763426967
3199.80638297873.19361702130.292695754
4202.6436170213-5.6436170213-0.5172388324
5201.8329787234-2.8329787234-0.2596431688
6202.23829787236.76170212770.6197115963
7196.158510638310.84148936170.9936250595
8197.779787234-3.779787234-0.3464183923
9198.995744680911.00425531911.0085425979
10199.8063829787-11.8063829787-1.0820577873
11201.4276595745-15.4276595745-1.4139486422
12200.6170212766-3.6170212766-0.3315008539
13202.23829787235.76170212770.5280613602
14198.9957446809-12.9957446809-1.1910630681
15201.4276595745-9.4276595745-0.8640472257
16198.9957446809-8.9957446809-0.8244621237
17202.643617021324.35638297872.2322682501
18198.590425531917.40957446811.5955916101
000
000
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
0
11
(d)
(d)
133128
120120
113121
116105
118112
124122
119117
113111
111120
106108
121117
115120
107121
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(d)
(d)
y = 0.62x + 46.04R2 = 0.34 P0.01
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
y
d
000
000
00
00
00
00
00
0
0
0
0
0
1:1
(d)
(d)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(d)
(d)
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
y
d
Chart1
126136
123130
118120
113109
123118
123125
123119
119119
118120
129119
126122
125127
(y)
(d)
50525d50525
19951261348641995203198-525234216-18324259258-11267
1996123122-111996193197416261251-10100271
1997118116-241997238191-472209261227-341156266242-24576149127-22484
1998113105-8641998201193-864222208-14196236232-416271247-24576159143-16256
1999123113-101001999203194-981222205-17289240228-12144261244-17289139132-749
2000123122-112000197190-749214201-13169240223-17289266238-28784144117-27729
2001123116-7492001266235-31961144120-24576
2002119111-8642002199193-636224208-16256240233-749264248-16256146138-864
2003118115-392003267248-19361150134-16256
2004129110-193612004269237-321024141128-13169
2005126118-8642005209189-20400220202-18324240225-15225261247-14196136130-636
200620062652761112126627711121
2007125125002007273239-341156149115-341156
781671
5410254102
1995107120131691995213192-21441234209-25625255233-22484282248-341156176129-472209
1996115117241996207190-17289234209-25625249237-12144287253-341156173137-361296
1997106117111211997279241-381444174125-492401
1998102102001998204192-12144218209-981239236-39296252-441936195151-441936
1999113111-241999202194-864235209-26676257232-25625269248-21441157138-19361
2000103119162562000295235-603600193117-765776
20011041128642001250230-20400147119-28784
2002124109-152252002211190-21441257247-10100134139525
200311311741620031841991522519621721441243247416285264-21441173148-25625
2004111108-392004216178-381444229195-341156259219-401600278234-441936168127-411681
20051121175252005281240-411681170124-462116
20061111209812006193192-11230210-20400261232-29841278248-30900168129-391521
2007103120172892007234185-492401251198-532809270222-482304280238-421764178119-593481
12633049400437191519120731
9.856665062519.522423005422.371857321223.049635881834.183891843139.933598732
5338453384
1995133125-864199520721710100213261273
1996120118-24199619421016256200245268
19971131196361997210196-14196225217-864252241-11121266260-636154142-12144
1998116100-162561998188192416210215525248247-112632641114816517289
1999118109-98119991861948641972121522523623939256255-11139147864
2000124118-6362000197196-11206218121442422453925826352513514611121
2001119107-121442001208184-24576217199-18324247223-24576262239-23529144133-11121
2002113104-981200218619711121196229331089235254
20031111154162003192190-24202208636246232-14196255247-864145133-12144
2004106105-11200419019663619921617289231247
2005121113-8642005227189-381444239206-331089256232-24576265248-17289145136-981
2006115116112006216206-1010023623600257235-22484268248-20400154133-21441
2007107117101002007254250-416148134-14196
8841470
166521412665395276615497
8.160882305211.222351646213.79699760315.716233645519.571663189416.5786006647
53518-0.31.055.503810-0.51451540281412535200.4030150.65
1125351412-0.255-0.150.96577590
50525d505250.95
199512613610100199520320411
199612313074919961932061316923423400259259002672801316914214539
1997118117-111997238196-4217642612621127128716256149158981
1998113107-6361998201191-10100261232-29841266248-18324149132-17289
1999123115-8641999203196-749222210-12144236228-864271244-27729159138-21441
2000123123002000197195-24222212-10100240230-10100261246-15225139132-749
2001123118-5252001214211-39240229-11121266244-22484144122-22484
2002119117-242002199195-416266237-29841144120-24576
2003118117-112003224214-10100240233-749264248-16256146132-14196
2004129116-131692004267249-18324150133-17289
2005126120-6362005209192-17289269247-22484141132-981
20062006220209-11121240232-864261244-17289136125-11121
2007125126112007265261-416
486339273247-26676149122-27729
146133
5410254102
1995107125183241995213200-13169
19961151194161996207191-16256234219-15225255237-18324282253-29841176129-472209
1997106120141961997234214-20400249233-16256287248-391521173130-431849
1998102105391998204191-13169279248-31961174129-452025
1999113113001999202192-10100218211-749239229-10100296245-512601195141-542916
2000103120172892000235209-26676257227-30900269243-26676157131-26676
2001104116121442001295238-573249193119-745476
2002124110-141962002211191-20400250239-11121147124-23529
2003113118525200318419713169257247-10100134138416
2004111109-242004216185-3196119621216256243238-525285254-31961173137-361296
20051121197492005229217-12144259222-371369278238-401600168130-381444
20061111209812006193197416281240-411681170122-482304
2007103122193612007234190-441936230217-13169261236-25625278253-25625168134-341156
16941263251208-431849270226-441936280244-361296178123-553025
11.4213.431919.003599.0014937.00169.69129.77
15.4922.6733.90
5338453384
1995133126-7491995207205-24
19961201200019961941973921324226127098127328916256141164
19971131218641997210199-11121200222245241-416268257-11121149138
1998116102-14196199818819139225219-636252238-14196266255-11121154135
1999118111-749199918619041621021339248228-20400263244-19361148143
2000124120-4162000197196-1119721013169236228-864256244-12144139134
2001119110-9812001208186-2248420621711121242235-749258251-749135132
2002113110-39200218619610100217203-14196247221-26676262237-25625144128
20031111198642003192190-241962263090023524611121254262864142153
200410610600200419019000202209749246227-19361255243-12144145125
2005121116-5252005227188-391521199213141962312321124724700142142
2006115118392006216196-20400239217-22484256225-31961265240-25625145125
2007107118111212007236217-19361257237-20400268253-15225154136
6831148254247-749148130
11691487145137
6.849.35161145667857
10.7315.9318.09
3581045
635201.18612253515131.25
50525d5052550525
1995126136101001995203197-636234213-21441
1996123130749199619320411121
1997118120241997238192-462116
1998113109-4161998201192-981222207-15225
1999123118-5251999203197-636222210-12144
2000123125242000197190-749214203-11121
2001123119-4162002199192-749
2002119119002005209191-18324224208-16256
200311812024372
2004129119-10100
2005126122-416220205-15225
20071251272453384
003381995207206-1153384
1996194202864
1997210199-11121213227
533841998188197981200221
1995133128-5251999186193749225217-864
1996120120002000197195-24210216636
19971131218642001208191-1728919721013169
1998116105-11121200218619913169206213749
1999118112-636200319219311217208-981
2000124122-24200419019998119622327729
2001119117-242005227190-371369202210864
2002113111-242006216200-1625619921617289
20031111209812007239207-321024
200410610824827236218-18324
2005121117-4161199
20061151205258.94
2007107121141962488
580
918
6.06
13.33
8080
140140
SUMMARY OUTPUT
50525126136101008080SUMMARY OUTPUT
123130749160160
11812024Multiple R0.5594120838
113109-416R Square0.3129418795Multiple R0.6908665173
123118-525Adjusted R Square0.2600912548R Square0.4772965447
55584133128-5255.9665887044Adjusted R Square0.4119586128
12012000154.7416012453
11312186410
116105-11121
118112-636dfSSMSFSignificance F
4401210.797650021210.7976500215.92125223740.0301401312dfSSMSFSignificance F
6.6313462.80234997935.60018076761164.2377410468164.23774104687.3050451830.0269575436
14673.68179.862258953222.4827823691
9344.1
5052512312524Coefficientst StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95% 95.0% 95.0%
123119-416Intercept21.563575325239.90725436770.54034224270.5980969048-64.6508060082107.7779566586-64.6508060082107.7779566586Coefficientst StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95% 95.0% 95.0%
119119000.81451951320.33473005752.43336233170.03014013120.091379191.53765983640.091379191.5376598364Intercept67.121212121219.73260559683.40153822020.009339204521.6177420542112.624682188221.6177420542112.6246821882
11812024X Variable 10.44352617080.1640997042.7027847090.02695754360.0651115750.82194076660.0651115750.8219407666
129119-10100
126122-416
12512724RESIDUAL OUTPUT
53384124122-24RESIDUAL OUTPUT
119117-24
113111-241123.3785144775-0.3785144775-0.0658337714 Y
50525d1111209812118.49139739824.50860260180.78416634171127.4407713499-1.4407713499
199512613610100106108243118.49139739820.50860260180.08845956872124.7796143251-1.7796143251
1996123130749121117-4164119.3059169115-1.3059169115-0.22713381013120.3443526171-2.3443526171
1997118120241151205255118.491397398210.50860260181.82772650124115.4655647383-2.4655647383
1998113109-416107121141966120.93495593795.06504406210.88094636495119.45730027553.5426997245
1999123118-52511911914787125.007553504-0.007553504-0.0013137566123.89256198359.1074380165
2000123125246.93644618774.76395194095.658120.93495593793.06504406210.53309297847120.3443526171-0.3443526171
2001123119-4160.05848605550.03998840479116.86235837182.13764162820.37179293978120.7878787879-7.7878787879
20021191190010111.97524129251.02475870750.17823289349113.69146005512.3085399449
20031181202411119.3059169115-8.3059169115-1.444620662810116.79614325071.2038567493
2004129119-101005052512109.5316827528-3.5316827528-0.6142539028
2005126122-416203197-63613116.86235837184.13764162820.7196463262
2007125127241932041112114119.3059169115-4.3059169115-0.7489138898
1995133128-525238192-46211615120.1204364247-13.1204364247-2.2819941213203197SUMMARY OUTPUT
199612012000201192-981193204
1997113121864203197-636201192
1998116105-1112153384207206-11203197Multiple R0.2462019637
1999118112-636194202864207206R Square0.0606154069
2000124122-24210199-11121194202Adjusted R Square-0.0735823921
2001119117-241881979812101998.7306557508
2002113111-241861937491881979
2003111120981590186193
2004106108248.10
2005121117-416dfSSMSFSignificance F
200611512052550525197190-749134.429551122234.42955112220.45168704220.5230905748
200710712114196199192-749SUMMARY OUTPUT7533.570448877876.2243498397
918209191-183248568
6.0653384197195-24
0.5830951895208191-17289Multiple R0.359580131Coefficientst StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95% 95.0% 95.0%
18619913169R Square0.1292978706Intercept111.062967581129.8844093820.85509083120.4208009441-196.064856664418.1907918261-196.064856664418.1907918261
19219311Adjusted R Square0.0204601045X Variable 10.43952618450.65398221380.67207666390.5230905748-1.1068960181.9859483871-1.1068960181.9859483871
5052519019998112.6268144701
1995203197-636120227190-37136910
199619320411121240216200-16256
1998201192-9811222RESIDUAL OUTPUT
1999203197-63615015011.65dfSSMSFSignificance F
2000197190-7492502501189.4084507042189.40845070421.18798717750.3074746634 Y
2002199192-749154028141281275.4915492958159.4364436621197.64962593525.3503740648
2005209191-18324-0.150.965791464.92200.7263092269-7.7263092269
1995207206-113195.45199501255.5480049875
1996194202864202194Coefficientst StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95% 95.0% 95.0%4197.64962593525.3503740648
1997210199-1112112.75800402363.9721250959Intercept426.1563380282205.60481017222.07269634240.0719270679-47.969204055900.2818801113-47.969204055900.28188011135201.6053615965.394638404
19981881979810.06312718470.0204748716-1.15492957751.0596187318-1.08994824540.3074746634-3.59841475271.2885555978-3.59841475271.28855559786199.8472568579-5.8472568579
19991861937497198.528678304211.4713216958
2000197195-248197.6496259352-9.6496259352
2001208191-172899195.891521197-9.891521197
200218619913169RESIDUAL OUTPUT
200319219311
2004190199981
2005227190-3713691206.7197183099-9.7197183099-0.8164623086
2006216200-162562204.4098591549-5.4098591549-0.4544314921
200.8196.531813205.56478873243.43521126760.2885598566
12.96247048314.841063667812.944200.9450704225-3.9450704225-0.3313883388
0.06456402920.0246316351R0.03175205.56478873242.43521126760.2045592424
0.17804493816196.3253521127-10.3253521127-0.86733592
7203.2549295775-11.2549295775-0.9454209981
8196.3253521127-6.3253521127-0.5313334629SUMMARY OUTPUT
50525505259206.719718309920.28028169011.7035561196
1995234213-214411995234213-2144116016010195.170422535220.82957746481.7496973021
1998222207-152251998222207-15225250250Multiple R0.1301886812
1999222210-121441999222210-12144R Square0.0169490927
2000214203-11121533841997225217-864SUMMARY OUTPUTAdjusted R Square-0.2288136341
2002224208-16256199821021663614.3794427627
2005220205-152251999197210131696
1079Multiple R0.3075225988
13.4101951266R Square0.0945701488
53384Adjusted R Square-0.0347769728dfSSMSFSignificance F
505252000214203-1112113.3118577441114.259836674114.25983667410.06896526960.8058202682
1997225217-8642002224208-1625694827.0734966592206.7683741648
19982102166362005220205-152255841.3333333333
199919721013169533842000206213749
20002062137492001217208-981dfSSMSFSignificance FCoefficientst StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95% 95.0% 95.0%
2001217208-9812002196223277291129.5611038108129.56110381080.7311345440.4208147986Intercept125.7171492205352.72140930540.35642052310.7395311544-853.59448108961105.0287795306-853.59448108961105.0287795306
200219622327729200320221086471240.4388961892177.2055565985X Variable 10.43652561251.66224299380.26261239430.8058202682-4.17860081125.0516520361-4.17860081125.0516520361
200320221086420041992161728981370
2004199216172892006236218-18324
2005239207-3210242132122138Coefficientst StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95% 95.0% 95.0%
2006236218-1832413.08625232836.50213640115.4128373623Intercept343.6031537451153.19489369982.24291518760.059820059-18.645207019705.8515145092-18.645207019705.8515145092RESIDUAL OUTPUT
0.06153410190.0307348885X Variable 1-0.61892247040.7238316993-0.85506405840.4208147986-2.33051246031.0926675194-2.33051246031.0926675194
Y
1218.697104677115.3028953229
2216.07795100225.9220489978
5052550525RESIDUAL OUTPUT3217.38752783964.6124721604
199525925900259259002002004220.44320712694.5567928731
19962612621126126211280280 Y5220.0066815145-10.0066815145
1997261232-29841261232-298411217.961892247-3.961892247-0.31817054026217.3875278396-20.3875278396
1998236228-864236228-8642214.86727989499.13272010510.733427945
1999240230-10100240230-101003216.72404730623.27595269380.2630842974
2000240229-11121533842612709814211.7726675427-5.7726675427-0.4635897788
2002240233-749245241-4165214.86727989492.13272010510.1712738928
2005240232-864252238-141966205.5834428384-9.5834428384-0.7696244608
53384248228-204007213.629434954-11.629434954-0.9339334264
1995261270981236228-8648209.9159001314-10.9159001314-0.8766310704
1996245241-41617639208.678055190527.32194480952.1941631414
1997252238-1419613.2778010228
1998248228-20400SUMMARY OUTPUT
1999236228-864SUMMARY OUTPUT
2000242235-74950525240229-11121243232
2001247221-26676240233-7498.32933237296.9450221982Multiple R0.3607191906
200223524611121240232-8640.03422075750.0299742003Multiple R0.3607191906R Square0.1301183345
2003246227-1936153384242235-749R Square0.1301183345Adjusted R Square0.0213831263
200423123211247221-26676Adjusted R Square0.02138312638.23979757
2005256225-31961235246111218.2397975710
2006257237-20400246227-1936110
23123211
4566256225-31961dfSSMSFSignificance F
15.93257237-20400dfSSMSFSignificance F181.245888044281.24588804421.19665319670.3058322226
2803181.245888044281.24588804421.19665319670.30583222268543.154111955867.8942639945
16.74216234548543.154111955867.89426399459624.4
9624.4
1995267280131695052526728013169210210Coefficientst StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95% 95.0% 95.0%
19962712871625627128716256300300Coefficientst StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95% 95.0% 95.0%Intercept343.637871458291.66914889533.74867526970.0056349076132.2484352096555.0273077068132.2484352096555.0273077068
1997266248-18324266248-18324Intercept343.637871458291.66914889533.74867526970.0056349076132.2484352096555.0273077068132.2484352096555.0273077068X Variable 1-0.43261921220.395477381-1.09391644870.3058322226-1.34459168740.4793532631-1.34459168740.4793532631
1998271244-27729271244-27729X Variable 1-0.43261921220.395477381-1.09391644870.3058322226-1.34459168740.4793532631-1.34459168740.4793532631
1999261246-15225261246-15225
2000266244-224845338427328916256
2001266237-29841268257-11121
2002264248-16256266255-11121RESIDUAL OUTPUT
2003267249-18324263244-19361
2004269247-22484256244-12144 Y
2005261244-1728927061244.5680718728-4.5680718728-0.588020744
2006265261-41616.4499240122242.8375950242-2.8375950242-0.3652667435
2007273247-266763243.2702142364-3.2702142364-0.4209552436
4241.97235659990.02764340010.0035583706
50525266244-224845248.0290255701-1.0290255701-0.1324603461
266237-298416237.2135452661-2.2135452661-0.2849365269
199527328916256264248-162567245.43331029720.56668970280.0729465976
1996268257-11121267249-183248243.2702142364-12.2702142364-1.5794717563
1997266255-11121269247-224849246.29854872159.70145127851.248810167
1998263244-19361261244-1728910241.107118175515.89288182452.0457962253
1999256244-12144265261-416
2000258251-749273247-26676
2001262237-2562553384258251-749SUMMARY OUTPUTSUMMARY OUTPUT
2002254262864262237-25625
2003255243-12144254262864
200424724700255243-12144Multiple R0.1212274654Multiple R0.6413831417
2005265240-2562524724700R Square0.0146960984R Square0.4113723344
2006268253-15225265240-25625Adjusted R Square-0.0556827517Adjusted R Square0.3377938762
2007254247-749268253-152257.03769250324.1811770673
254247-7491610
78572622475151
18.096.8495741967.115417532817.942616866
0.02613094590.0287709579dfSSMSFSignificance FdfSSMSFSignificance F
110.34237922810.3423792280.20881413020.6547084313197.742066658197.74206665815.59093441880.045635414
505255052514693.40762077249.52911576948139.857933341917.4822416677
19951421451421459808015703.759237.6
199614915814915881200200
1997149132149132289Coefficientst StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95% 95.0% 95.0%Coefficientst StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95% 95.0% 95.0%
1998159138159138441Intercept290.985927084263.18278773534.6054619860.0004081998155.4723254632426.4995287052155.4723254632426.4995287052Intercept220.201647149719.498485854911.29326906660.0000034001175.2380581753265.1652361241175.2380581753265.1652361241
199913913213913249X Variable 1-0.11669821410.2553784627-0.45696184760.6547084313-0.66443053950.4310341113-0.66443053950.4310341113X Variable 10.17732595550.07499462012.36451568380.0456354140.00438805150.35026385950.00438805150.3502638595
200014412253384141164529
2001144120149138121
2002146132154135361
200315013314814325RESIDUAL OUTPUT
200414113213913425
20051361251930 Y
200714912213.89244398941262.51156283433.48843716570.5130766248
2263.32845033332.67154966670.3929294469
505251441224843262.04476997781.95523002220.2875737108
533841441205764261.92807176365.07192823640.7459752597
19951411641461321965262.16146819196.83853180811.0058059389
19961491381501332896262.5115628343-1.5115628343-0.2223194859
1997154135141132817260.5276931944.4723068060.6577834062
19981481431361251218262.161468191910.83853180811.5941228274
19991391341491227299261.6946753354-3.6946753354-0.5434099744
200013513253384135132910263.3284503333-1.3284503333-0.1953874417
200114412814412825611260.4109949798-6.4109949798-0.9429241548
200214215314215312112262.6282610485-7.6282610485-1.1219587013
200314512514512540013262.1614681919-15.1614681919-2.2299369481
2004142142142142014262.97835569092.02164430910.2973418724
200514512514512540015261.46127890716.53872109290.9617100121
200615413615413632416262.1614681919-8.1614681919-1.2003823932
2007148130148130324
4310
16.9509095135
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(d)
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(d)
(d)
(gm-2)Change of Chinese wildrye production in Hulunber trial station
(gm-2) Change of pasture production in Hulunber trial station
930Correlation of biomass production on 30th September and annual precipitation in Hulunber
Chart1
1294
928
1435
2147
1467
1435
887
1621
1140
1658
1690
0930
Precipitation(mm)
Biomass(g/m2)
Sheet1
1995209.861.329
1995117.448.942
1995263.0105.044
199626.76.926
1996244.481.533
1996146.468.747
1996224.8119.053
199740.713.934
1997191.167.435
1997165.273.945
199784.041.249
199813.72.317
1998100.340.941
1998145.968.147
1998214.187.741
199914.63.121
1999280.896.034
1999117.849.042
1999224.1117.052
200017.25.532
200083.329.736
200072.629.841
2000142.366.046
20010.80.225
20014.91.633
200117.85.631
200179.835.945
20028.02.734
200241.215.237
200264.226.341
200282.440.649
200311.74.639
200320.66.933
200358.323.540
200382.940.349
2004
200420.15.326
200491.136.840
200454.623.142
200449.122.746
200512.14.335
200546.614.731
200514.16.647
200518.36.938
2002216.438.818
2002290.490.031
2002187.681.243
200238.424.062
200238.018.849
2002
200387.220.023
200357.214.024
200388.812.414
2003100.017.617
200350.016.433
2003
200472.014.821
200471.222.432
200455.612.823
2004186.841.622
200422.86.027
200563.615.224
200546.815.232
200524.48.434
200550.816.031
2005
1995108.824.022
199582.419.223
1995112.416.815
199596.416.817
199518.87.641
199520.016.079
199657.212.823
1996143.228.820
1996291.245.616
1996250.039.216
199620.84.019
1996
199790.021.624
199742.812.830
199745.27.216
199788.017.620
199759.214.825
19973.22.473
1998101.217.618
199862.418.830
199857.013.225
199827.611.642
199818.812.065
1998
1999154.431.620
1999121.624.020
1999196.837.619
199939.218.446
19998.86.068
200076.828.437
200031.26.821
200041.211.227
2000138.432.023
200048.810.822
200029.213.245
200111.62.825
200111.62.823
2001
200115.24.026
200199.617.217
20019.22.829
200284.819.623
2002102.834.433
200249.221.644
2002109.658.854
200257.228.049
200211.27.264
2003100.046.446
2003124.853.243
200350.418.837
200330.414.046
200313.68.462
200310.04.040
200436.012.434
2004144.460.842
200451.222.043
200446.017.237
200421.69.244
200522.810.848
2005102.841.240
2005118.052.845
2005175.666.838
200569.226.839
200526.012.848
19957.22.433
199518.46.837
1995117.628.024
1995123.232.026
199513.67.656
199514.410.873
19966.44.064
199626.010.440
199638.811.630
199686.820.824
199613.23.628
19965.24.074
199720.06.031
199723.28.837
199755.613.624
199758.418.432
199736.413.637
19979.66.466
199895.224.426
199852.417.233
199834.814.040
199816.49.257
199818.813.270
199816.411.670
199943.216.839
199924.08.033
199982.027.634
199929.612.442
19999.64.043
19999.66.468
200018.06.435
200028.48.430
200018.46.434
200065.619.229
200041.210.826
200023.29.239
200111.23.230
200127.28.833
200126.811.644
200117.25.632
200136.06.819
20015.62.035
19950.90.447
19954.81.736
199513.66.245
19957.64.660
19952.31.773
19960.70.343
19965.02.448
19968.83.540
199658.229.851
199626.916.361
19972.10.839
19972.61.248
19972.11.047
199712.56.653
199720.115.075
19982.00.840
19986.02.338
199822.410.044
199823.412.152
199849.430.361
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