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A GIS-Based Flood Risk Assessment for
the City of Rockford
University of Illinois
Prairie Research Institute
Illinois State Water Survey
Lisa Graff, CFM, GISP
Clayton Ballerine, CFM
Brad McVay, CFM, GISP
Project Partners • Illinois State Water Survey (ISWS)
• Illinois Department of Natural Resources, Office of Water Resources (IDNR/OWR)
• City of Rockford
• FEMA
City of Rockford, IL
Rockford Flooding
Flood Studies
Map Change
Impacts
6
Scope of Work
• ISWS
▫ Multi-frequency Flood Depth Grids
▫ Percent 30-year Flooding Chance Grid
▫ HAZUS Level 2 Risk Assessment
▫ Database
▫ Maps of Priority Areas for Mitigation Action
Data Deliverables
• Detailed, structure-by-structure flood risk data for each building in the floodplain.
▫ Survey Data
▫ Building Characteristics
▫ Flood Risk Information
What is Risk?
Risk
What is Hazus?
• Program designed by FEMA for the purpose of providing communities with the means to identify and reduce risk from natural hazards
• Program elements include:
– Hazus-MH
– User Groups
– Education Program
– Other resources
• Available from FEMA free of charge (requires ArcGIS license)
Input
detailed engineering
data
Combination of local and default hazard,
building, and damage data
Default hazard, inventory, and damage information
Levels of analysis
Required
user effort and
sophistication
Level 3
Level 2
Level 1
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3
Hazard •USGS NED
•Stream centerlines based
on topography
•USGS regional regression
equations and gage records
will be used to determine
discharge frequency
curves.
•User prepares hazard data
using the FIT
•User will supply improved
DEM
•User supplies flood
modeling results including
stream cross-sections
attributed with elevations,
or lines of
BFE
•A flood boundary of some
form is required.
•User will likely work with
hydraulic models outside
of the flood model and the
FIT
Levels of analysis
• What you need:
▫ Best Available Flood Inundation Data
▫ GIS Structure Inventory
▫ Assessors Information
Data for Analysis
• Depth Grids for 5 flood frequencies
Flood Inundation Data
• Effective FEMA Floodplain Data
Structure Data & Assessors Data
Structure Identification: Cont.
Structure Identification: Cont.
19
Survey Data
Collection
20
21
Survey Data Collection
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3
Inventory Hazus default data. Allocation of census block data via statistical analysis, and broad assumptions for first floor elevation. General land use, Lifelines, Agriculture, Vehicles inventory, Essential facilities.
•User supplied inventory data, such as Tax Assessor data. •Users enhance the first floor height and other parameters
High quality data regarding building values, flood vulnerabilities, contents, occupancies, etc., extended to industrial and other high-value facilities.
Levels of analysis
User Defined Facilities (UDF)
• Hazus method for site specific analysis
• Inputs:
▫ Building inventory
Table containing values for each structure
Very specific format for upload
Lat Long values to represent location
▫ User Defined Depth Grids
10%, 4%, 2%, 1%, and 0.2% annual chance floods
UDF versus Census Block GBS • GBS data is aggregated to the Census Block
▫ Assumes structures are
distributed evenly over
the census block
• 1% Annual Chance Flood
▫ Building losses
GBS = $1,474,000
UDF = $0
UDF versus Census Block GBS • GBS tends to overestimate
economic losses
• 1% Annual Chance Flood
▫ Building losses
GBS = $249,000
UDF = $131,000
25
Filling in the gaps
• Tax exempt structures
• Missing attributes
▫ Occupancy Class
▫ Replacement Cost
▫ Square Footage
▫ Number of Stories
▫ Year Built
▫ Design Level
▫ Foundation Type
▫ First Floor Height
Filling in the Gaps
• Sources:
▫ Zillow/Realtor/Trulia
Square footage, Year Built, Foundation Type, Number of Stories
▫ Streetview
Foundation Type, Number of Stories
▫ Orthophotos
Square footage (estimated)
Filling in the gaps
• Hazus Technical Manuals
▫ Replacement cost RS Means 2006
$ values per square foot for different occupancy classes
▫ Default values Square footage, First floor height, etc.
• Document methodology/sources
28
Occupancy Class
29
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Agricultural
Exempt
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3
Damage Curves
•Broad regional default curves based on available FIA or USACE depth damage curves. •Library of curves available for user selection.
•User specifically modifies the existing curve library for local practices.
•User-input curves based on detailed building surveys, specific crop conditions etc.
Levels of analysis
Depth-Damage Curves • Percentage of damage is calculated for each structure based on the depth of flooding.
▫ Based on Occupancy, foundation type
▫ For buildings, first floor height
▫ For equipment, height above first floor
• Damage percentage is used to determine loss in USD
Depth of
flooding
Depth used for damage estimation
Analysis Output
• Building Loss
• Content Loss
• Business Inventory Loss
• Percent Damaged for Structures
• Average Annualized Loss (AAL)
Average Annualized Loss
• Estimated long-term value of losses averaged on an annual basis
• Useful for estimating potential flood losses over a defined period of time
• Formula
▫ (10% – 4%) *(Loss 10% + Loss 4%) / 2 +
▫ (4% – 2%) * (Loss 4% + Loss 2%) / 2 +
▫ (2% – 1%) * (Loss 2% + Loss 1%) / 2 +
▫ (1% – 0.2%) * (Loss 1% +Loss 0.2%) / 2 +
▫ 0.2% * Loss 0.2%
33
Presenting Results – Best Practice
• Results are ESTIMATES and should be treated as such
• Include a disclaimer
• Results should be rounded
• Results can be summed for an area
or focused on individual structures
depending on need.
Presentindg Results
35
Presenting
Results
Presenting Results
Keith Creek Mitigation
38
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total
#Properties Acquired
0 98 14 0 0 0 112
#Properties Demolished
0 12 0 37 39 0 88
1998
2016
10% Annual Chance Depth Grid
4% Annual Chance Depth Grid
2% Annual Chance Depth Grid
1% Annual Chance Depth Grid
0.2% Annual Chance Depth Grid
Thank You For Listening!
44
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