BG Chuong 3_Gia Tri Tien Te - Chi Phi Su Dung Von

TRNG I HC TN C THNG KHOA TI CHNH NGN HNG B MN TI CHNH DOANH NGHIPBI GING HOCH NH NGN SCH VN U T M MN HC: B02007 GV: Th.S L Trung Th

GIO TRNH V TI LIU THAM KHO- GS. TS. Trn Ngc Th, Sch Ti chnh doanh nghip hin i, 2005, NXB. Thng k. - GS. TS. Trn Ngc Th, Sch Ti chnh doanh nghip hin i Bi tp v gii php, 2005, NXB. Thng k. - TS. Bi Hu Phc, Sch Ti chnh doanh nghip, 2009, NXB. Ti chnh. - TS. Nguyn Minh Kiu, Sch Ti chnh doanh nghip c bn, 2009, NXB. Thng k.

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN3.1. Gi tr tin t theo thi gian 3.2. Chi ph s dng vn

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN

3.1. Gi tr tin t theo thi gian ? Ti sao tin t c gi tr theo thi gian? - Tin phi sinh li; - S khng chc chn ca mt ng trong tng lai; - S mt gi ca ng tin (lm pht).

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN 3.1. Gi tr tin t theo thi gian 3.1.1. Li nKhi nim: L tin li phi tr hay nhn uc ch tnh trn s vn gc ban u. Cng thc tnh:

I = P*r *nFVn = P *(1 + n * r )

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN 3.1. Gi tr tin t theo thi gian 3.1.2. Li kp v gi tr tng lai:Khi nim: L tin li khng ch tnh trn vn gc m cn tnh trn c tin li ca n nu tin li ny khng c thanh ton. Cng thc:

-

FVn = PV *(1 + r ) = PV * FVF (r , n)n

FVF(r,n) = (1+r)n: tha s li sut tng lai, tra PL1. Quan h gia r v FVF(r,n) hay FVn ?

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN3.1. Gi tr tin t theo thi gian 3.1.3. Hin giKhi nim: L gi tr hin ti ca mt khon tin trong tng lai. Cng thc tnh:

FVn PV = = FVn * PVF (r , n) n (1 + r )1 : tha s li sut hin gi, Ph lc 1. PVF (r , n) = n (1 + r )

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN3.1. Gi tr tin t theo thi gian 3.1.3. Hin giQuan h gia r v PVF(r,n) hay PV ?

1 PVF (r , n) = FVF (r , n)Khi nim v chit khu v li sut chit khu.

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN3.1. Gi tr tin t theo thi gian 3.1.4. Gi tr tng lai ca chui tin t uCng thc:

FVAn = CF * 1 + (1 + r ) + (1 + r ) 2 + ... + (1 + r ) n 1

(1 + r ) n 1 FVAn = CF * = CF * FVFA(r , n) rFVFA(r,n): tha s li sut tng lai ca chui tin t u, tra bng Ph lc 3.

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN3.1. Gi tr tin t theo thi gian 3.1.5. Hin gi ca chui tin t uCng thc:

1 1 1 + + ... + PVAn = CF * 2 1 + r (1 + r ) (1 + r ) n

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN3.1. Gi tr tin t theo thi gian 3.1.5. Hin gi ca chui tin t u

1 1 1 + r = CF * PVFA(r , n) PVAn = CF * rPVFA(r,n): tha s li sut hin gi ca chui tin t u, tra bng Ph lc 4.

n

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN3.1. Gi tr tin t theo thi gian 3.1.6. Hin gi ca chui tin t u mi miCng thc tnh:

CF PVA = CF * PVFA = r3.1.7. Hin gi ca dng tin bin iCch tnh: chit khu tng khon tin.

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN3.1. Gi tr tin t theo thi gian 3.1.8. Li sut trong trng hp k hn ghp li khng phi l 1 nm - K hn ghp li l na nm:

r FVn = PV * 1 + 2

2n

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN3.1. Gi tr tin t theo thi gian- K hn ghp li l nm

r FVn = PV * 1 + 4

4n

- Cng thc tng qut: ghp li m k

r FVn = PV * 1 + m

m*n

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN 3.1. Gi tr tin t theo thi gianMt s bi tp minh ho: Vi du ve Gia tri tien te.pdf

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN3.2. Chi ph s dng vn 3.2.1. Tng quan v chi ph s dng vnCP s dng vn l ci gi m DN phi tr cho vic s dng cc ngun ti tr. CPSDV l t sut sinh li m cc nh u t trn th trng yu cu khi u t vo CK ca cng ty. CPSDV c quan h trc tip vi mc ri ro. CPSDV l t sut sinh li ti thiu m DN i hi khi thc hin DA mi CPSDV c xem l TS ro cn

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN3.2. Chi ph s dng vn 3.2.1. Tng quan v chi ph s dng vnCPSDV khi c dng nh LS chit khu. ngha: CP s dng vn l mt c s quan trng ca quyt nh ti tr. CP s dng vn l c s ca quyt nh u t.

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN3.2. Chi ph s dng vn3.2.1. Tng quan v chi ph s dng vn - S khc bit quan trng khi dng CP s dng vn lm li sut chit khu cho dng tin ca doanh nghip v cho dng tin ca d n c th. Do: ri ro ca DA c th c th khc vi ri ro chung ca DN.

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN3.2. Chi ph s dng vn 3.2.1. Tng quan v chi ph s dng vn

CPSDVDA

r = r + r + * P0 I0

r: CPSDV bnh qun ca DN trc DA; r: gia tng trong CPSDV ca DA do tnh ri ro ca DA; I0: u t ban u ca DA; P0: gi tr ca DN trc DA

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN3.2. Chi ph s dng vn 3.2.1. Tng quan v chi ph s dng vn r c tnh nh th no? da ch yu trn trc gic v kinh nghim.

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN3.2. Chi ph s dng vn3.2.1. Tng quan v chi ph s dng vn - Cc yu t nh hng n vic phn tch cu trc ca CP s dng vn: + Yu t kinh t v m: ri ro kinh doanh. + Yu t ni ti ca DN: ri ro ti chnh.

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN3.2. Chi ph s dng vn 3.2.1. Tng quan v chi ph s dng vn

- Mi quan h gia ri ro v chi ph ti tr:

ri = f (roi , bi , fi )

ri: CP ca ngun ti tr di hn i; roi: li sut phi ri ro ca ngun ti tr i; bi: phn b ri ro kinh doanh; fi: phn b ri ro ti chnh.

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN3.2. Chi ph s dng vn 3.2.1. Tng quan v chi ph s dng vn Xem xt CPSDV ca tng c hi u t nn xem xt trn c s CPSDV chung hn l CPSDV ca tng ngun ti tr ring bit cho c hi u t . Vd: C hi A c I0=100, n=20 nm, IRR=7%, c th dng n vay vi li sut 6%. C hi B c I0=100, n=20 nm, IRR=12%, c th dng vn ch s hu vi CPSDV 14%. Bn chn c hi no u t? Nn dng ngun ti tr kt hp.

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN3.2.2. CP s dng vn ca tng ngun ti tr ring bit CP s dng vn vay di hn; CP s dng vn CP u i; CP s dng vn CP thng; CP s dng vn t LN gi li;

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN3.2.2.1. CP s dng vn vay di hn Nghin cu trng hp in hnh ca vay di hn thng qua pht hnh tri phiu. Chi ph pht hnh: tng chi ph pht sinh trong qu trnh DN pht hnh tri phiu. Doanh thu pht hnh thun: l khon tin thc s DN nhn c t vic pht hnh tri phiu.

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VNV d: CTCP H pht hnh tri phiu k hn 3 nm. TrP c mnh gi 100.000 ; li sut hng nm l 12%; s lng pht hnh l 200.000 TrP. Gi bn TrP l 90.000 . CP m Cty phi tr cho nh bo lnh pht hnh bng 2% mnh gi TrP.CP pht hnh = 2.000 /TrP. DT pht hnh thun = 88.000 /TrP. Tng DT pht hnh thun = 17.600.000.000 .

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN- CPSDV vay trc thu: rDCch tnh 1: chit khu dng tin t TrP:

88.000 = 12.000* PVFA(rD ,3) + 100.000* PVF (rD ,3)Ngha l dng phng php ni suy c biu thc:

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN

{12.000* PVFA(rD ,3) + 100.000* PVF (rD ,3)} 88.000 = 01 1 (1 + rD )3 1 + 100.000* 88.000 = 0 12.000* 3 rD (1 + rD )

cng thc ni suy:

a1 *(r2 r1 ) rD = r1 + a1 + a2trong : - r1 l mc li sut chit khu lm cho a1 dng nhng gn bng 0. - r2 l mc li sut chit khu lm cho a2 m nhng gn bng 0.

vi a l gi tr v tri ca biu thc.

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VNCPSDV vay trc thu: rD Cch tnh 2: tnh bng cng thc gn ng:

FV P0 R+ n rD = FV + P0 2R: tin li hng nm; P0: gi bn TrP; FV: mnh gi TrP; n: k hn ca TrP.

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VNCPSDV vay trc thu: rD

? Tnh CPSDV vay trc thu rD theo hai cch v so snh kt qu. - CP s dng vn vay sau thu: r*D* D

r

= rD (1 t )

? Tnh li CPSDV vay sau thu r*D vi thu sut thu TNDN l 25%.

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN3.2.2.2. CP s dng vn c phn u i:

DP rP = ' PPDP: C tc ca CP u i; PP: Doanh thu thun t vic pht hnh CP u i. PP = PP Chi ph pht hnh CP u i. vi PP l Mnh gi CP u i.

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN3.2.2.2. CP s dng vn c phn u i:

V d: Cng ty c phn FutureCare pht hnh 1.000.000 c phn u i. Mnh gi mi c phn l 10.000 ng. C tc c hng hng nm trn cc c phn ny c n nh l 20%/nm. Chi ph pht hnh bng 3% mnh gi. Hy tnh CPSDV ca cng ty i vi ngun ti tr ny?

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN3.2.2.3. CP s dng vn c phn thng: L t sut sinh li trn mi CP do cc nh u t trn th trng vn k vng. Ti tr bng vn CP thng c th din ra theo 1 trong 2 cch: Pht hnh mi CP thng; T Thu nhp gi li.

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN3.2.2.3. CP s dng vn c phn thng:

Cch tnh 1: dng m hnh nh gi tng trng u:

D1 re = +g P0D1: c tc d kin vo cui nm 1; P0: gi CP thng; g: t l tng trng u hng nm ca c tc.

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN3.2.2.3. CP s dng vn c phn thng: Cch tnh 1: dng m hnh nh gi tng trng u: V d: Cty CP CSTL ang tnh ton CPSDV CP thng. Gi th trng ca CP ca Cty l 17.000 /CP. C tc d kin vo cui nm 2011 ca Cty l 3.000 /CP. Tnh hnh chia c tc cc nm qua nh sau: 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2.970 3.120 3.330 3.470 3.620 3.800 Hy gip Cty tnh ton re ca Cty.

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN3.2.2.3. CP s dng vn c phn thng:

Cch tnh 2: dng m hnh nh gi ti sn vn (CAPM):

re = rf + { *(rm rf )}rf: t sut sinh li ca ti sn phi ri ro; rm: t sut sinh li ca danh mc th trng;

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN3.2.2.3. CP s dng vn c phn thng: Cch tnh 2: dng m hnh nh gi ti sn vn: V d: Cty CP CSTL ang mun tnh ton li CPSDV CP thng bng cch dng m hnh CAPM. Lc ny li sut phi ri ro l 14%. H s ca Cty l 1.5 v t sut sinh li ca danh mc th trng l 20%. Hy gip Cty tnh ton li re ca Cty bng cch s dng m hnh CAPM.

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VNTho lun nhanh: So snh 2 cch tnh re v kh nng p dng Vit Nam?

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN- CP s dng vn t thu nhp gi li v CP s dng vn t vic pht hnh mi c phn thng. + CPSDV t Thu nhp gi li:

rre = re

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VNCP s dng vn t thu nhp gi li v CP s dng vn t vic pht hnh mi c phn thng.

+ CPSDV t pht hnh mi CP thng:

D1 rne = +g P '0P0: doanh thu pht hnh thun.

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VNV d: Xem xt li v d ca Cty CP CSTL Cty CP CSTL ang tnh ton CPSDV trong trng hp pht hnh mi CP thng. Gim c ti chnh ca Cty d kin gi bn CP thng pht hnh mi ca Cty l 16.000 /CP. Ngoi ra Cty cn phi chu chi ph pht hnh l 500 /CP. Hy gip Cty tnh ton rne ca Cty v so snh vi re.

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN3.2.3. Chi ph s dng vn bnh qun (WACC)

WACC = r

* D

* wD + rP * wP + re * we

wD, wP, we: t trng tng ngun ti tr tng ng trong cu trc vn.

wD + wP + we = 1

re trong cng thc c th l rre hay rne.

Bi tp vn dng:Bi 1: Hin nay Cty A ang bn TrP mnh gi 100.000 , k hn 15 nm, tr li hng nm vi mc li sut 12%/nm. TrP c bn vi gi 101.000 /TrP. CP pht hnh l 3.000 /TrP. Thu sut thu thu nhp doanh nghip l 25%. 1. Hy tnh CP s dng n trc thu v sau thu bng phng php ni suy. 2. bng phng php gn ng.

Bi tp vn dng:Bi 2: Mt cty pht hnh CP u i vi mnh gi l 10.000 v t l chia c tc n nh mc 12%/nm. CP c bn vi gi 9.750 /CP v chi ph pht hnh l 250 /CP. 1. Tnh CPSDV CP u i. 2. Gi s t l chia c tc ch l 10% v gi bn ch l 9.250 /CP th CPSDV CP u i l bao nhiu?

Bi tp vn dng:Bi 3: Cty R ang o lng CPSDV CP ca mnh. CP ca Cty hin ang c giao dch vi gi 57.500 /CP. Cty d kin tr c tc 3.400 /CP vo cui nm nay. C tc 5 nm qua: 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006. 3.100 2.920 2.600 2.300 2.120 D kin gi bn mt CP mi pht hnh l 55.000 ; chi ph pht hnh l 3.000 /CP. Hy dng m hnh tng trng u xc nh CPSDV LN gi li v CPSDV CP thng pht hnh mi.

Chng 3 GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN Hai vn cn lu khi tnh T TRNG: T trng tnh theo gi tr s sch hay gi tr th trng: Nn s dng T trng tnh theo gi tr th trng v: - gi th trng phn nh tng i chnh xc s tin thu c khi bn chng khon. - chi ph s dng vn ca tng ngun ti tr c tnh trn c s gi th trng.

Chng 3 GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN Hai vn cn lu khi tnh T TRNG: T trng tnh theo cu trc vn lch s (cu trc vn thc t) hay cu trc vn mc tiu: Nn s dng T trng tnh theo cu trc vn mc tiu.

Bi tp vn dng:Bi 4: Cty V ang tnh CPSDV cho Cty. Thng tin thu thp c nh sau: S dng vn t N: Cty c th tng khon n khng gii hn bng cch pht hnh TrP c li sut 10%/nm, tr li cui mi nm, thi hn l 10 nm, mnh gi 100.000 /TrP. Chi ph hoa hng cho nh bo lnh pht hnh bng 3% mnh gi, chi ph pht hnh bng 2% mnh gi. S dng vn t CP u i: Cty c th pht hnh CP khng gii hn v s lng vi gi 10.000 /CP, li sut 11%/nm, tr li cui mi nm. Chi ph pht hnh bng 5% mnh gi CP.

-

Bi tp vn dng:Bi 4: (trang 2) - S dng vn t CP thng: CP thng ca Cty hin ang c giao dch mc 8.000 /CP. Cty d kin chi tr c tc bng tin mt mc 600 /CP. C tc ca Cty tng trng 6%/nm v khng thay i trong tng lai. CP s c bn di gi 400 /CP v CP pht hnh l 400 /CP. Cty c th bn vi s lng khng hn ch. - S dng vn t LN gi li: Cty d kin gi li LN 22,5 t ng trong nm ti. Nu khng c LN gi li, Cty s pht hnh CP thng mi. Gi s thu sut thu TNDN l 25%.

Bi tp vn dng:Bi 4: (trang 3) 1. Tnh CPSDV i vi tng ngun ti tr. 2. Tnh CPSDV bnh qun vi gi nh cu trc vn mc tiu ca Cty l: N di hn : CP : CP thng = 40% : 15% : 45%.

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN 3.2.4. Chi ph s dng vn bin t v quyt nh u t 3.2.4.1. CP s dng vn bin t (WMCC) CPSDV bin t (WMCC) l CPSDV bnh qun ca DN gn vi 1 ng vn ti tr tng thm. WMCC quan h ng bin vi quy m ngun ti tr. ? Gii thch v mi quan h ny?

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN Ba bc tnh ton WMCC:Bc 1: Xc nh im gy (breaking point, BP): im gy: khi quy m ti tr vt qua im gy th CPSDV ca ngun ti tr thnh phn s gia tng (v v th CPSDV bnh qun cng gia tng).

BPj =

AFj wj

BPj: im gy ca ngun ti tr j. AFj: tng ngun ti tr ca ngun ti tr j. wj: t trng ca ngun ti tr j trong cu trc vn.

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VNBc 2: Tnh WACC trn ton b phm vi ngun ti tr mi gia cc im gy:

(bao gm WACC ca tng ngun ti tr mi giaim zero v im gy th 1, WACC ca tng ngun ti tr mi gia im gy th 1 v im gy th 2, ..). Bc 3: Lp th biu din WMCC:

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN3.2.4.1. CP s dng vn bin t (WMCC): V d: Cng ty D c LN gi li l 30 t vi CPSDV ca LNGL l 13%. Cng ty c th vay n thm vi 2 mc nh sau: nu s tin vay khng vt qu 45 t th CPSDV vay sau thu l 5,6%; nu vt qu th CPSDV vay sau thu l 8,4%. Cng ty lun duy tr cu trc vn mc tiu ca mnh l: Vn CP thng : Vn CP u i : Vn t n vay = 60% : 10% : 30%. Hy tnh ton v lp th WMCC ca Cty D. Bit rne = 14% v rp = 9%.

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN 3.2.4. Chi ph s dng vn bin t v quyt nh u t - ng c hi u t (IOS, IOC Investment Opportunities Schedule/Curves):Biu din kh nng sinh li ca cc c hi u t ca DN t c hi u t tt nht (c IRR cao nht) n c hi u t xu nht (c IRR thp nht).

V d: Cty D trong v d trc ang i din vi cc c hi u t nh th hin bng sau: Hy v ng c hi u t ca Cty?

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VNC hi T IRR Vn T ban u Vn T lu k

A B C D E F G

12.5% 12.0% 11.5% 11.1% 10.5% 10.0% 9.9%

10 t 20 t 30 t 40 t 10 t 20 t 30 t

10 t 30 t 60 t 100 t 110 t 130 t 160 t

Chng 3. GI TR TIN T, CHI PH S DNG VN 3.2.4. Chi ph s dng vn bin t v quyt nh u t - Quyt nh u t: La chn nhng c hi u t c t sut sinh li ni b bin t cao hn hoc bng chi ph s dng vn bin t. ? Cng ty D trong v d trc s la chn nhng c hi u t no?

Bi tp vn dng:Tip theo Bi tp vn dng 4: 1. Xc nh im gy LNGL v tnh CPSDV bin t. 2. Cty V ang c nhng c hi u t vi IRR v Vn u t ban u tng ng nh sau: A: 11,2% v 10 t ; B: 9,7% v 50 t . C: 12,9% v 15 t ; D : 16,5% v 20 t . E: 11,8% v 45 t ; F: 10,1% v 60 t . G: 10,5% v 30 t . Hy v ng IOS trn cng th vi ng WMCC. 3. Hy gip Cty ra quyt nh u t v q.nh ti tr.

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BG Chuong 3_Gia Tri Tien Te - Chi Phi Su Dung Von