Bioenergie und Landnutzungskonflikte 

Jürgen ScheffranForschungsgruppe Klimawandel und SicherheitInstitut für Geographie, CliSAP/CEN, Universität Hamburg

Biologische Grundlagen der Friedensforschung3. Juni 2015

IPCC (2011) SRREN_SPM

Historische Entwicklung erneuerbarer Energiequellen

Anteile von Energiequellen an der globalen Primärenergienutzung in 2008

IPCC (2011) SRREN_SPMWorld total primary energy supply: 492 ExaJouleModern biomass contributes 38% of total biomass share

Globale Anteile der Biomassequellen für Energieversorgung

Source: IPCC-SRREN (2011)

IPCC-SRREN (2011): conclusions on bioenergy

• Bioenergy technologies can generate electricity, heat and fuels from a range of ‘feedstocks’.

• Some bioenergy systems, including ones that involve converting land into agricultural biomass and energy crops, can generate more greenhouse gas emissions than they save.

• But others, such as advanced conversion systems, which for example convert woody wastes into liquid fuels, can deliver 80 percent to 90 percent emission reductions compared to fossil fuels.

• Bioenergy, mainly for traditional cooking and heating in developing countries, currently represents over 10 percent of global energy supply or ca. 50 Exajoules per year.

• While the share of bioenergy in the overall renewables mix is likely to decline over the coming decades, it could supply 100 to 300 Exajoules of energy by 2050...

IPCC-SRREN press release

Energetische Nutzung von biomassE

Biomass

Burn produce electricity

Thermochemicalconversion to

syngas products

Biochemicalconversion toethanol and other fuels

Mature Semi-mature(Capital intensive

inefficient)

In development

Source: Steve Long

Motivation für biotreibstoffe Energy security: Growing oil prices and dependence on 

energy imports from the Middle East increase demand for renewable energy

Home‐grown domestic energy sources offer development perspectives to structurally weak rural areas and lead to structural changes in land‐use and agriculture 

Economic benefits: significant number of jobs, increase of GDP and farmer's income

Sustainable development in Third World: growing energy demand in developing countries; high productivity of energy crops in tropical and subtropical regions, employment and income in rural areas

Low‐carbon energy alternatives to fossil fuels: advanced bioenergy offers potential lifecycle carbon emission reductions.

Bioenergie-politik• In his State of the Union speech, George

W. Bush set a target to boost ethanol and other alternative fuel production to 35 billion gallons a year by 2017 – a fivefold increase.

• The March 9, 2007 deal between the United States and Brazil on biofuels satisfies the growing US demand in ethanol.

• European Union leaders at a climate change summit in Brussels March 9, 2007 have agreed to slash carbon dioxide emissions by 20% from 1990 levels by the year 2020.

• These cuts would rise to 30% if the United States and other industrialized countries were to commit themselves to 'comparable' emissions cuts after 2012, and if large developing countries including China contribute 'adequately'.

• The European Commission wants countries to pledge, among other things, to raise use of renewable fuels to 20%.

Globale produktion von biotreibstoff

Vital Signs 2010

Geplantes wachstum von ethanol in USA

Grain Ethanol and Vegetable Oil Biodiesel0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Bill

ion

Gal

lons

/Yea

r

Grain Ethanol and Conventional Biodiesel

Cellulosic Ethanol and "Green" Diesel

2015 2025 203020202005 2010

3.7

44.8

9.412.8

Source: Stanley R. Bull, NREL

Ethanol von Mais

In 2006, 17 percent of the corn crop was processed into ethanol which accounted for 2 percent of fuel supply.

Technology Review, Jan. 2008

Energie und preis landwirtschaftlicher Güter 2000-09

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

IMF Commodity IndexCrude oilCornSoybeansSoybean oilPalm oil

Source: International Monetary Fund, International Financial StatisticsCommodity prices and indices are normalized to equal 1.0, on average, for 2000

Gibt es eine verbindung zwischen Nahrungspreis und unruhen?

Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/27083/ Death tolls in parentheses

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/crisis-in-egypt/arab-nations-are-the-largest-importers-of-grains/article1889683/?from=1889680

Palmöl für biodiesel?

Welt-Anbaufläche von ölpalmen

Bioenergie lebenszyklus

CABER 2007

Kritische Aspekte von biotreibstoffen

Energy balance

Carbon balance

Land use

Competition with food

Water needs

Fertilizer and chemical inputs

Biodiversity, monoculture, invasive species

Safety and security

Cost of harvest and distribution

Jobs

Subsidies

Legal issues

Comprehensive Life-cycle Assessment for sustainable biofuels

Partikelkonzentrationen der holzverbrennung in entwicklungsländern

Source: IPCC 2007:WG3, based on Karekezi and Kithyoma, 2003.

Das bewertungs-Dreieck

Kosten Risiko

Wert

Bioenergie

Energysource

DistributionParticipation

Risk Utility

ValuesGoals

- +

Conservation Equity CooperationNegotiation

EfficiencyRisk reduction

Sufficiency

V=E • d • p • (v-r) = V*

Strategien für nachhaltige energienutzung

Greenhous Gas

EmissionsG

Population

P

LaborProductivity

W/P

EnergyIntensity

E/W

EmissionIntensity

G/Ex xx

Faktoren von Treibhausgas-Emissionen:Die Kaya-Identität

=

G = (G/E) * (E/W) * (W/P) * P = g * e * w * P

G is global greenhouse gas emissions from human sources (e.g. CO2)P is global populationW is world wealth (GDP)E is global primary energy consumption

w = (W/P) is global per-capita wealth (labor productivity)e=(E/W) is the energy intensity of world wealth (GDP)g=(G/E) is the carbon intensity of energy.

Yoichi Kaya, 1993, Environment, Energy, and Economy: strategies for sustainability

Pflanzen-effizienz

Source: Sorensen

Biomass to fill the tank on the truck with bioethanol….

Source: Paul Carver, 2007

…..45 minutes fuel for a coal fired power station

Source: Paul Carver, 2007

Mehrjährige gräser

Courtesy: D.K. Lee 2008

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) Miscanthus x giganteus

Maiserträge in den usa

Troyer, 1990Source: Troyer, 1990

Projezierte Maiserträge in USa

Maiserträge mit regenbewässerung

Source: Rockström 2009

Energierelation und CO2-Emissionen von ethanol

Technology Review, Jan. 2008

Landbedarf von biotreibstoffen für 50% der Pkw-Nutzer in usa

Verteilung technischer energie-potentiale von fester biomasse

Adapted from: Kaltschmitt et al., 2003, p. 48

Source: Kaltschmitt 2003, Energiegewinnung aus Biomasse.

Land-nutzungs Effizienz alternativer biotreibstoffe

010

2030

405060

7080

90100

RM

E(N

ethe

rland

s)

EtO

H fr

omm

aize

(US

A)

EtO

H fr

omw

heat

(Net

herla

nds)

EtO

H fr

omsu

gar b

eets

(Net

herla

nds)

EtO

H fr

omsu

garc

ane

(Bra

zil)

EtO

H fr

omw

ood

(pre

sent

tech

nolo

gy)

EtO

H fr

omw

ood

(adv

ance

dte

chno

logy

)

MeO

H fr

omw

ood

(by

gasi

ficat

ion)

H2

from

woo

d(b

yga

sific

atio

n)

1000

v-k

m/h

a/yr

Light-duty internal combustion engine vehicle, (current technology)

IPCC, 1996.

Emissionsvermeidung und biomasse-ertrag

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Biomass yield, metric t/ha/yr

Avo

ided

GH

G e

mis

sion

s, k

gCeq

/ha/

yr

Corn ethanol, 2005

Woody & herbaceous cellulosic ethanol, 2005/2010

Herbaceous cellulosic ethanol, 2025

Herbaceous cellulosic ethanol, 2050

Brazil sugarcane, best practice 2002 (68.7 t/ha/yr of raw cane stalks)

Biomasse-produktivität in EU-mena

Bazilevich 1994

Potential für Ackerland

Potential fürBewässerungslandwirtschaft

Potential für Ertragssteigerung

Konversionspfade der bioenergie

Commercial routes (solid lines), developing bioenergy routes (dotted lines)(1) Parts of each feedstock could also be used in other routes. (2) Each route also gives coproducts. (3) Biomass upgrading includes any one of the densification processes (pelletization, pyrolysis, torrefaction, etc.). (4) Anaerobic digestion processes release methane and CO2 and removal of CO2 provides essentially methane (5) Could be other thermal processing routes such as hydrothermal, liquefaction, etc. DME=dimethyl ether.

(Source: SRREN 2011, modified from IEA Bioenergy 2009)

Biomasse-netzwerk

Refinery PlanningSite Selection based on:• Resources (e.g., water) • Farms• Transp. networks• Storage (optional)

Biorefinery

Objective: Integrate feedstocks, bioprocessing plants and consumer demands into a regional economic model• Logistics optimization• Lifecycle assessment• Emission reductions

Transp. networks (e.g., rail, highway)

Customers (e.g., gasstation)

Harvest

Feedstockfarm

Storage

Transport…

Feedstock Shipping• Transp. mode• Fleet design (e.g., vehicle capacity)

• Dispatch route & schedule• Handling at farm/storage

Fuel Distribution• Transp. mode & fleet• Dispatch route & schedule• Price and demand

uncertainty

Cost Analysis• Transp. • Facility• Inventory• Environmental externalities

Direkte effekte von biotreibstoffen

• Habitat destruction (particularly in Amazonia for soy and South‐East Asia for palm oil)

• Local environmental impacts upon air, water and soil quality and exacerbation of local water supply concerns

• Health impacts and social issues including poor working conditions for laborers and reported loss of land rights for indigenous peoples where new plantations for feedstock are established.

inDirekte effekte von biotreibstoffen

Rising food commodity prices and the effect upon food security for the poor

Displacement of agricultural production to uncultivated areas with impacts on biodiversity, GHG savings and local land rights as a result of biofuel production.

Many forms of land‐use change result in significant releases of carbon to the atmosphere (payback time), negating any benefits (compared to petrol). 

• Examples: Expansion of sugar cane production in Brazil, leading to displacement of cattle ranching and accelerated deforestation in Amazonia. 

Expansion of soy production in South and Latin America as a consequence of US farmers increasing production of maize (and reducing production of soy) 

Increased demand and prices for oil seed rape for biodiesel in the EU leads to expansion of palm oil production in South‐East Asia.

Emissionseinsparung und payback für biomasse

Source: Gallagher Review 2008, based on E4Tech 2008

Standards für nachhaltige biomasse

Source: Eco Institute 2006

Multi-stakeholder dialoge

Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO)Roundtable for Responsible Soy (RTRS)SA 8000: developed by Social Accountability International (SAI)

Global Social Compliance Program (GSCP): initiative of CIES, InternationalCommittee of Food Retail Chains, Food Business Forum.

Fairtrade Rainforest AllianceGlobalGap  International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movements (IFOAM)

Roundtable on sustainable biofuels

• UNEP• Brazilian environmental and social 

NGO’s• Bunge Corporation• BP• Dutch Ministry of Housing and the 

Environment• The Energy Resources Institute (TERI) 

of India• Swiss Federal Institute of Technology 

(EPFL)• Federation of Swiss Oil Companies• Forest Stewardship Council• Keio University, Japan• Mali Folkecenter• Pinho, Petrobras• Volkswagen Environment

• National Wildlife Federation• Swiss Energy Ministry• Shell Oil• Toyota Motor Europe• UNCTAD• UN Foundation• University of California at Berkeley• World Economic Forum• WWF International • Working Groups’ Chairs• Michigan State University• IUCN, • National African Farmers’ Union• German NGO Forum• Virgin Group.

Kriterien für nachhaltige nutzung von bioenergie

Environmental criteria

Climate change Air quality Water supply and quality Land resources Biodiversity and wildlifeprotection

Economic criteria

Microeconomic efficiency Macro‐economic benefits Technology transfer Regional economy Employment generation

Political criteria

Development for MENA No resource exploitation True cooperation Low conflict potential Political stability  Democratization

Social criteria

Risk avoidance Anti‐corruption Stakeholder participation Improved service availability Capacity development Fair distribution of project return

Feedstocks

Harvesting

ProcessingDistribution

UtilizationBioenergyLifecycle

New varietiesGenomics

Pest controlLand use

TechnologyMachinery

LaborLogistics

Transportation

DeconstructionMicrobes

FermentationCoproducts

Industry

LogisticsTransportation

Industry StructureResource recovery

Engine technologyConsumer demand

Recycling

TechnicalFeasibility

EconomicViability

EnvironmentalSustainability

Social-politicalAcceptability