CBRE-HCMC-Office-Tenants-Evening-VN-22.5.12.pdf

7/24/2019 CBRE-HCMC-Office-Tenants-Evening-VN-22.5.12.pdf

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CBRE Vit Nam

M KHCH THU TP HCMQu 2/2012

Ngy 22 thng 5 nm 2012

Trnh by bi : ng Greg Ohan

Ti Vincom Center 47 L T Trng, Q.1, Tp HCM


2/28

CBRE | Page 2

Thngip Gin Bn Hm Nay !...

2 nhn t trong kinh doanh1. Ni s hi2. S tham lam

Ch u T & Khch Thu= cng vin bi nhngyu t ging nhau

Nu bn bit r kth &chnh bn, bn skhng

phi shi d phii mtvi hng trm trn chin(Sun Tzu, The Art of War)

Ti k hpngvd idiaim = Trnu cchin lc, HIU th trng

Tham lam l tt (Gordon Gecko, Wall St)ng khng ?


3/28

CBRE | Page 3

Thuyt Trnh iu Gang NNG &iu G Khng?

Tng quan th trng

Nng cp vn phng lm vic

Chin lc t huBn cn bitiu g?

Ngun cung iu nynh hng nh th no

n bn?

Xy dng hpng thu Nhng nhn t ch cht


4/28

CBRE | Page 4

Tp HCM So Vi Nhng Ni Khc Tp HCMC & H Ni, 50 thnh

ph hngu vi gi thu cao

nht T HM CH sau khigim mnh

Tp HCM = 27 (gim 8 im)

H Ni = 32 (gim 3 im)

Tp HCM xp th 2 & H Ni xp

th 3 trong s nhng thnh phc gi thut khu vcng Nam sau Singapore.

Khu Vc Vin Ty thuc HK &London, nm trong top 2

Th Trng Vn Phng: Khu Vc Chu Thi Bnh Dng


5/28

CBRE | Page 5

Nhng Tiuim Gny

Khng c cch nochng ta c th pngc mc tiu pht trin kinht mc 6% trong nm nay khi c qu nhiu cng tyang gp kh khnnghim trngng Lng Doanh cho bit, y l nh kinh t hca r a li khuyn cho Th Tng Nguyn Tn

ChS CPI Thng 5, thp nht k tnm 2004!


6/28CBRE | Page 6

Tng Quan Th Trng Cao c Vn Phng Tp HCM

S Hp Dn TRLI thnh ph - Cc cng tyang v khu

trung tm/ cn trung tmc mi cho thu vi nhngiu khonthu hp dn... NGAY BY Gi!

Nng cp vn phng t Hng B sang Hng A khng phi tr thm

$$ Nhng Ch u T ang gi mc gi thu cao hn, ang rt linh

hot

i mt vi gi thu khngi thng lng gi thu hiu qu Hpng thu theo tinng

Qu 1/2012, din tch thung k. Din tch cho thu vn phng

Hng A Qu 1/2012 t 50% nhiu hn mc bnh qun ca Qu

Chnh schui cc k hp dn trong nhng ta nhCCHN LC

Ngun cung nm 2012 b tr hon chc 9.000 m2


7/28CBRE | Page 7

iu g lm Ch u Tca

bn thc gic lc nam?1. Cnh tranh gia tng cnh

tranh & ngun cung mi/ la

chn d i di trong Qu4/2012, Qu 1/2013

2. Din tch trng (cc) Ch

u T ang tm kim giiphp gi chn Khch ThuBY Gi, hn l p hiimt vi na ta nh b trng

Sthayi ca (cc) Chu Tchnhang tipthm ngun nhin liu cho

cc Khch Thu

Gi cho thu (US/ m2/thng)HngAHng B

Gi cho thu ca Vn Phng Hng A & B gimu/ khngi

Tng Quan Th Trng Cao c Vn Phng Tp HCM


8/28CBRE | Page 8

Khch Thucc qun ph cn/nng cp vn phng bng vic d i din cc ta nh khu trung tm

Nhng Khch Thu KHNG mun di

di; chn d i di

Nhng ta nh chnhKhu vc

Qun 1 ang toiu kin cho ccKhch Thu d dng thayinhng chin lc lpy ca h.

Cht lng tt, v tr, din tch chothu sn c cho php nhng tanh chnh tr thnh nhng la chn

ph bin

Nng Cp?Overall D1

D1 - Excluding Key buildingsD1 - Key Active Buildings

Overall D1D1 - Excluding Key buildings

D1 - Key Active Buildings

Ton th trng Q.1Q.1 khng gm cc caoc

chnhQ.1 cc caoc chnh

Ton th trng Q.1Q.1 khng gm cc caoc

chnhQ.1 cc caoc chnh

Gi Thu Hng A(US$/ m2/thng)

T L Trng Hng A (%)


9/28CBRE | Page 9

Khch Thucc qun ph cn/ nng cp vn phng bng vic d i din cc ta nh khu trung tm/ khu cn trung tm

Nng Cp? Nhng Giao Dch Chnh Nau 2012

Ta Nh Khu Vc Khch ThuBitexco Financial Tower Khu TT Hoffmann-la Roche

Bitexco Financial Tower Khu TT FonterraBitexco Financial Tower Khu TT Toyota Finance ServicesVincom Center Khu TT KirinVincom Center Khu TT VeoliaVincom Centre Khu TT PV Wells Service

Vincom Centre Khu TT Evonik DegussaSaigon Finance Centre Khu TT Viet Phat (Inbisco)Saigon Finance Centre Khu TT PayooGemadept Khu TT UASCGemadept Khu TT Jardine ShippingSunwah Tower Khu TT Emirates

Green Power Khu TT Bao Viet Tokio MarineMetropolitan Khu TT Nokia VietnamRee Tower Khu TT New BalanceSFC Khu TT JW PharmaCentral Park Khu TT Grass Savoye

Capital Place Khu TT Cathay Insurance VietnamBao Viet Building Khu TT HalliburtonEtown Khu ph cn SwagelokRee Tower Khu ph cn ABBRee Tower Khu ph cn Fubon Life


10/28CBRE | Page 10

CBRE nhng giao dch chothu vn phng nau2012

94% - Khu trung tm 39% - 2 ta nh ch cht

Qun 1

Gi cho thu (US$ / m2/ thng)Hng AHngB

Din tch thc thu vn phng Hng A Qu 1/2012;>13.000 m2 so vi Qu 1/2011; 8.500 m2. Nhn chung

t l lpy vn phng Hng A hin nay >90%. Vnphng Hng A c hn >95%

V t l lpyg ia tng vngun cung Mi btr hon,vn phng Hng A dng nh ang tinn mt skhan him v mt ngn hn

Nng Cp?


11/28CBRE | Page 11

Khng Mt Li Th Ca Ngi Thu!

6/2002 4/2005 7/2005 12/2006 12/2007 5/2008 1/2009 1/2010 1/2011 1/2012

Khi thp tng 14 16 18 22 48 50 42 27 22 20

Khi trung tng 17 20 23 26 49 52 44 31 24 22

Khi cao tng 20.5 24 28 28 50 54 46 32 26 24Lu : Gi thu cha bao gm ph dch v & VAT

Gp i vmt na

2012 20152011

Hng A Hng B Hng C

GI CHO THU THEO HNG VN PHNG


12/28CBRE | Page 12

Ngun Cung & Chin Lc Ca Bn

Chc 9.000 m2 ngun cung mi

trong nm 2012 (d kin l 84.000m2). Ch tc 11% so vi dkin!

5 ta nh d kin hon thin trongnm 2012 trn thc t, c th chhon thin 1 hoc 2

iu ny c ngha g vi Khch

Thu?

1. Hn chnhng la chn di dii vi cc hpng ht hn vo

Qu 3, Qu 4/2012!2. 500 m2 hay > Khch Thu c hpng ht hn vo na cui

2012, chcn 1 2 thngc chi thuc mt bng vinhngiu kin tuyt vi

3. NNSuy nghv hnhng nhanh chng!


13/28CBRE | Page 13

Ngun Cung: Thc T Qu 4/2011 So Vi Hin Ti

Presidents Place Q.1, Hng A (Nguyn Du / Nam K Khi Ngha)

D kin bn giao 6/2012 8/2012 Din tch 9.100 m2 - 12 tng Din tch sn (thc thu) 748 m2 (LEED Gold)

Q4/2011 Q2/2012

So vi


14/28CBRE | Page 14

Saigon One Tower Q.1, Hng A (Nguyn Hu/ Tn Dc Thng) D kin bn giao 3/2012 Din tch 40.000 m2 a chc nng Din tch sn (thc thu) 1.017 1.175 m2 (LEED Gold)

Q4/2011 Q2/2012

So vi



15/28CBRE | Page 15

Times Square Q.1, Hng A (Nguyn Hu/ ng Khi) D kin bn giao 3/2012 c th Qu 4 Din tch 12.704 m2 8 tng a chc

nng Din tch sn (thc thu) 1.588 m2

Q4/2011 Q2/2012

So vi



16/28CBRE | Page 16

Le Meridian - Q.1, Hng A (Tnc Thng) D kin bn giao 7/2012 . Nay d kin thng 10/2012 Din tch 9.125 m2 (c tnh) Din tch sn (thc thu) 1.520 m2 (c tnh)

Q4/2011 Q2/2012

So vi



17/28CBRE | Page 17

Sau 2012. Khng C Ngun Cung Cht Lng n Nm 2015!!

Vietcombank Tower - (Tnc Thng/ Hai B Trng)

BIDV Tower (Nguyn Hu)

Q4/2011 Q2/2012

So vi

So vi

Q4/2011 Q2/2012


18/28CBRE | Page 18

m Bo Mt Giao Dch Tt Nhn T Quytnh?

Chin lc & Tc l CHA KHA

TIA HA LI TH

Ti sao di di Tm kim iu g khi phn tch ta nhDin tch TltrngMrng/ thu hp Thnh tch ca Chu TTit kim Shiu bit ca Chu Tvthtrng

Ci thin cht lng/Hnh nh Hp ng sp ht hn ca Chu TVn cin Thmnh vti chnh ca Chu TQun l Cam kt trc n hngiu khon thun li

Vtr Thi gian hot ngLu thng

Chu Tmi su i nhiu hn Khch Thura quyt nh nhanh

u xe

Tuyn dng/gichn = Li Th Cnh Tranh


19/28CBRE | Page 19

m Bo Mt Giao Dch Tt

Sc mnh ca thng hiukhch thu

Phng thc thanh ton

t cc

Thi hn thu di hniu khon chm dt hp ng

sm c min tin pht

Din tch yu cu

Tc thng lng

Tin thu c min

Tin thu tng dn quacc nm

Min hoc gim ph u

xe Bng hiu qung co

ngoi tri hp dn

TngNhn

&

Mc tiu gi thu hiu qusau tt cnhngui

G


20/28CBRE | Page 20

m Bo Mt Giao Dch Tt - Khi No Nn? Vic cho thu nhanh chng & th

trng thu hp nau 2012 =cc la chn b hn ch

Ch u Tca bn c bitiu ny?

Tt nhin l c!

T l trng (%) Hng AHngB

1. Ch cn 1-2 thng m bo gi thumc $30/m2/thngi vi vn phng Hng A

2. Cam kt vi mt ta nh mi, trc khi hon thin = phitr thm tin thu (giao dch tt nht l t 3-9 thng sau)

3. Nhng Ch u T c t l lpy gia tngang ngh n

vic g i a tng tin thu. Ch u T angtn t l lpymc an ton


21/28CBRE | Page 21

Nhng Ta Nh Chnh- Ta Nh Noang C Sn Din Tch Trng?

T l lpy /

Q4 2011

Din tch thu

(c tnh)

T l lpy /

Q2 2012

Din tch thu

(c tnh)BitexcoFinancialTower D1 40.00% 24,102.00 m2 60.00% 13,000.00 m2

Kumho D1 98.00% 1,100.00 m2 98.00% 300.00 m2

Metropolitan D1 98.00% 1,000.00 m2 95.00% 1,000.00 m2

SunWah Tower D1 96.00% 961.00 m2 96.80% 856.00 m2

Diamond

Plaza D1 100.00% 0.00

m2 98.00% 200.00

m2SaigonCentre D1 96.00% 876.00 m2 90.00% 1,000.00 m2

SaigonTower D1 98.00% 250.90 m2 99.45% 80.53 m2

Me

Linh

Point

Tower D1 100.00% 0.00

m2 97.00% 631.00

m2

A&BTower D1 93.83% 1,614.00 m2 98.00% 365.00 m2

Green

Power D1 70.20% 3,947.30

m2 90.00% 1,130.00

m2

Vincom D1 51.00% 37,091.00 m2 67.00% 25,388.00 m2

CENTEC D3 98.00% 200.00

m2 98.00% 200.00

m2

SaigonTradeCenter D1 92.00% 3,500.00 m2 93.00% 5,000.00 m2

Maritime

Bank

Tower D1 54.00% 8,786.00

m2 69.40% 6,032.00

m2

CentrePoint PN 97.50% 682.00

m2 98.00% 327.00

m2

etown TB 98.80% 1,000.00 m2 99.38% 900.00 m2

REE

Tower D4 20.00% 13,800.00

m2 85.00% 2,550.00

m2

Flemington D11 75.00% 7,000.00 m2 75.00% 5,500.00 m2

TNG CNG 105,910

m2 64,460

m2Ngun: c xc nhn bi Ch u T hoci din Ch u T

Q4/2011 Q2/2012Q4/2011 - Q2/2012 = 41450 m2 thuQ1/2012 Q2/2012 = 22,93 m2 thu


22/28CBRE | Page 22

Tp HCM - Din Tch Thc Thu Tnh Theo Hng Vn Phng

Tng Cng 2007 665,486m2

Tng Cng 2008 908,972m2

Tng Cng 2009 1,222,303m2

Tng Cng 2010 1,648,216m2Q1/2012 1,892,700m2

2012 Din tch cho thu *: Cty Vit Nam 87.5% so vi Cty nc ngoi 12.5%C bn vng? FDI cnh hng?

*Sliu trn cn cvo thng k ca CBRE


23/28CBRE | Page 23

Gi thu thcDin tch 1.361 m2Tin thu (da trn din tch NET ) $30/ m2/thng

Ph qun l $6/ m2/thngVAT 10%Tng cng $39,60/ m2/thng $39,60 / m2/thngTng cng hng thng (Tin thu) $40.830,00USDTng cng hng thng (Ph qun l) $8.166,00USDTng cng hng thng (VAT) $4.899,60USDTng cng hng thng (Tin thu, PQL, VAT) $5.895,60USDThi hn hp ng 60 thng

Tng cng $3.233.736,00USD

Cc u iMin tin thu 9 thngTng gi trtin thu c min $367.470,00USD

$4,5/ m2/thng $35,10 / m2/thng

Bin hiu qung co (1m x 1.2m) 1.20 m2Gi thtrng $250/ m2/thngTng cng gi trbin hiu trong sut 5 nm $18.000USD

$0,22/ m2/thng $34,88 / m2/thngMin tin gi xeSlng xe t 4Gi thtrng $200/ thngTng cng tin gi xe t trong sut 5 nm $48.000USD

$0,59 m2/thng $34.29 / m2/thng

Slng xe gn my 70Gi thtrng $20/thngTng cng tin gi xe gn my trong sut 5 nm $84.000USD

$1,03/ m2/thng $33,26 / m2/thng

ng gp cho trang tr ni tht

$0/ m2/thng

Tin thu thc sau khi tnh cc u i $33,26 / m2/ thng

Chnh Schui THC SHu Dng Tit kimc 16% trn gi thu k kt


24/28

CBRE | Page 24

Din tch 365 m2 1.361 m2

Gi thu $40/ m2/thng $33/ m2/thng

Gi thu nm u $35/ m2/thng $30/ m2/thng

Tin thu hng thng $14.6/thng $44.913/thng

Chi ph trang tr ni tht $350 m2 $350 m2

Tng gi trTTNT c tnh $127.750 $476.350Giai on min tin thu 2 thng 5 thng

Tng stin thu c min $29.200 $224.565

Tng stin tit kim cttin thu hthng gi bthang

c$18.250 $28.581

Tng gi tru i $47.450 $253.146Gi trtin thu c min /tng gi trTTNT 37,14% 53,14%

Chnh Schui Bp Cho CAPEX V D

S V Ch H C Ti


25/28

CBRE | Page 25

S Vng Chc Hn Ca Tinng

Chcho mcch trnh by thuyt trnh cn c vo t gi ca Vietcombank

Source: Standard Chartered Bank;

https://research.standardchartered.com/researchdocuments/Pages/ResearchArticle.aspx?&R=77756

Ngy T gi USD Hiu lc VND % tng

20/10/2008 VND 16,600.00 $25.00 $25.00 VND 415,000.00

20/10/2009 VND 17,852.00 $25.00 $26.89 VND 446,300.00 7.54%

22/12/2010 VND 21,015.00 $25.00 $31.65 VND 525,375.00 26.60%

11/11/2011 VND 21,005.00 $25.00 $31.63 VND 525,125.00 26.54%

21/5/2012 VND 20,870.00 $25.00 $31.43 VND 521,750.00 25.72%

K kt hpng thu bng VND

C nh mc tng hng nm t 5 -10%

Tr li tin cc bng Tin T Chnh

Ngn Hng Nh Nc hng ti mctiu daong 3%

T h T K Ch V Ph MI Ti H S D
https://research.standardchartered.com/researchdocuments/Pages/ResearchArticle.aspx?&R=77756https://research.standardchartered.com/researchdocuments/Pages/ResearchArticle.aspx?&R=77756


26/28

CBRE | Page 26

Tnh Ton K Cho Vn Phng MI TiuHaS Dng

S dng nh qun l d n

dy dn kinh nghim

S dng mt bng hiu qunht

Thit k mt bng linh hot tng lai c th pht trinthm nhn s. V d: chuyni nh kho thnh mt s bn

lm vic khi nhn s gia tng

T L


27/28

CBRE | Page 27

Tm Lc

Cnh caang -NG LI Ch u T ca bnang

sn sng v sn lng NHNG s khng ch i qu lu

Khch Thu vi hpng ht hn nm 2012 s cn hnh

ng nhanh chng m bo mt giao dch

Ngun cung na cui 2012, thc t chc 11% so vi d

bo khng c du hiu chc chn no duy tr nguncung

Chng taang cn k vn khan him ngun cungtrong ngn hn vi ln sng ngun cung theo ThiGian, mtim bo ln nht.

Ln k hoch, chin lc thu, gi CBRE


28/28

hn 300 vn phng trn 50 quc gia

49

33

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CBRE-HCMC-Office-Tenants-Evening-VN-22.5.12.pdf