Decision BasicsPsychology of Personal Decision-Making

Agenda

More TED! – Barry Schwartz ▪ “The Paradox of Choice”

Decisions since last class? Decision basics

Decisions

All decisions have alternatives

Decisions

All decisions have alternatives, values

Decision

All decisions have alternatives, values, and uncertainty!

Facts vs. Values

What you think is true:

Facts vs. Values

…Can be very different from what is

actually true

Two Features of Decision-Making

#1: Problem structuring ▪ Identification of: ▪ Alternatives▪ Values that differentiate alternatives▪ Uncertain events

BEAUTYDullness

Two Features of Decision-Making

#2: Evaluation ▪ Weighing: ▪ Desirability of outcomes ▪ Uncertain events

BEAUTYDullness

Aha! Moments with Other Problems

Are the means good enough?

Decision problems:▪ Hard to determine if solutions are good

enough!

PORTLAND

Seatt

le

Are the means good enough?

Decision problems:▪ Hard to determine if solutions are good

enough!

PORTLAND

Seatt

le

2 Decision Types

#1 Multi-attribute decisions▪ Involve trade-offs between values

2 Decision Types

#2 Risky decisions▪ Deal with uncertainty and the FUTURE

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Decisions, Evolution, and Work

We haven’t evolved into decision analysts… it takes work and cognitive tools!

…Capacity of judging rightly in matters relating to life and conduct; soundness of judgment in the choice of means and ends.

Wisdom defined:

Common Objections to Decision Analysis…

Walt Whitman - “Be a more of a free spirit to better appreciate life”▪ Easier to appreciate life this way in between

decisions, not during them

Analyzing decisions places too much weight on what is quantifiable and ignores the other stuff▪ Decision analysis quantifies the

“unquantifiable”

Decision Analysis

Decision tables

“WEEDY ROOMMATES”

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Authenticity

Breathability

Control Harmony

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