eqspertis azri

devid j. smiti

azerbaijani da saqarTvelo:samxreT kavkasiis aRmosavleT-dasavleT derefnis myari strategiuli mniSvneloba

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÓÔÒÀÔÄÂÉÉÓÀ ÃÀ ÓÀÄÒÈÀÛÏÒÉÓÏ ÖÒÈÉÄÒÈÏÁÀÈÀ ÊÅËÄÅÉÓ ×ÏÍÃÉGEORGIAN FOUNDATION FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

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2014

publikacia daibeWda amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis saelCos finansuri mxardaWeriT.

redaqtori: rusudan margiSvili

teqnikuri redaqtori: artem meliq-nubarovi

saavtoro uflebebi daculia da ekuTvnis saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis fonds. werilobiTi nebarTvis gareSe wignis arc erTi nawili ar SeiZleba gadaibeWdos nebismieri,

maT Soris, eleqtronuli an meqanikuri formiT.

© saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa kvlevis fondi 2014 weli

ISSN 1512-4835 ISBN 978-9941-0-6498-2

Sesavali

2014 wels, rodesac nato avRaneTidan gamosvlas daiwyebs, dasavleTi Tavis yuradRebas, cota xniT mainc, samxreT kavkasiis aRmosavleT-dasavleT derefans miapyrobs, romlis gavliTac Sin dabrundeba aRWurvilobis didi nawili. amasobaSi, soWis olimpiadis saTxilamuro trasebis Tovls talaxi Caanacvlebs da ruseTis prezidenti vladimer puti-ni yvelafers iRonebs, rom regionSi yvelanairi dasavluri aqtivoba Seaferxos. amas warmatebiT SeZlebs, Tuki aSS-isa da sxva dasavluri qveynebisaTvis samxreT kavkasia kvlavac iqneba Znelad warmosaTqmeli saxelebis mqone dasaxlebaTa nakrebi, sadac xSirad xdeba ucnauri ambebi, vidre regioni, romlis mimarTac maT sasicocxlo interesi aqvT.

viwro derefani, romelsac Savi zRvidan kaspiis zR-vamde mdinareebi rioni da mtkvari qmnian, geopolitikuri gasaRebia putinis miswrafebisTvis _ aRadginos rusuli impe-ria. SeZlebs ki moskovi aRidginos gavlena kavkasiis gasasv-lelze _ saxmeleTo xidze, romelic ruseTs dasavleT azia-sTan, kerZod ki, mokavSire iransa da siriasTan daakavSirebs? Tu es derefani darCeba istoriulad mniSvnelovan saxmeleTo gadasasvlelad evropasa da centralur azias Soris? putins unda pirveli da aSinebs meoris potenciali.

radganac putini kaspiisa da Sav zRvas Soris arsebuli istoriuli mniSvnelobis am sicocxlisunariani ararusuli derefnis potencials ufrTxis, moskovi nulovani TamaSis principSia momwyvdeuli. geopolitikaSi ki, rodesac erTi mxare nulovan TamaSSi ebmeba, TamaSis Sedegi nulia, miuxe-davad sxva moTamaSeebis survilebisa. imisaTvis, rom gaigon, raze devs fsoni, dasavleTs marTebs fokusireba samxreT kavkasiaze, rogorc sistemaTa unikalur sistemaze _ mil-sadenebis, sarkinigzo, saavtomobilo, sahaero, sazRvao da optikur-boWkovani kabelebis magistralur sistemaze.

azerbaijani da saqarTvelo am sistemaTa sistemis cen-tralur RerZs qmnian, Tumca am sistemis erT polusze aris hiustoni _ atlantikis okeanis yvelaze dasavleTiT mdebare

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porti1 da meoreze _ Sanxai -_ aziis karibWe wynar okeaneSi. sruli potencialis gamoyenebis SemTxvevaSi, samxreT kavkasi-is aRmosavleT-dasavleTi derefani Crdilo-atlantikuri wylebis sistemas, maT Soris xmelTaSua da Savi zRvebis da raini-maini-dunais mdinareTa sistemas daakavSirebs evraziis saxmeleTo marSrutTan, romelic wynar okeanemde midis. ko-munikaciebsa da komercias ki xalxi mohyveba da amdenad, aR-mosavleT-dasavleTi derefani SeiZleba aseve iqces ideebis gasasvlelad, rac, albaT, yvelaze mniSvnelovani perspeqti-vaa.

evraziis „hartlendi“, anu Suaguli

mizezi imisa, Tu ratom aris samxreT kavkasiis aRmosav-leT-dasavleTi derefani ase mniSvnelovani da Tan ase sadavo isaa, rom igi erTaderTi gadasasvlelia evropidan evrazi-is Suagulamde, im adgilamde, romelsac ruseTi ver akon-trolebs. SesaZloa, intuiciurad ar gegonos, rom evraziis xmeleTis didi nawili praqtikulad miuwvdomelia, magram am mosazrebas erTgvarad topografiul rukaze dakvirvebac adasturebs. SeiZleba vikamaToT evraziis „hartlendis“ saz-Rvrebze, magram „istoriis geografiuli mdebareobis“ kon-cefcia, romelic pirvelad ser halford makkinderma 1904 wels Semoitana, dResac qmediT koncefciad rCeba.2

evraziis topografiul rukas Soridan Tu SevxedavT, davinaxavT vrcel teritorias, romelsac cxenis nalise-burad akravs yinulovani wyali, mTebi da udabno. es cxenis nali, Ria boloTi - dasavleTisken, yinuliT _ CrdiloeTis mxares, xolo aRmosavleTiT da samxreTiT mTiTa da udab-noTi Semorkaluli, verxoianskis mTebidan kaspiis zRvam-dea gadaWimuli da Zalian bevr rames gveubneba evraziis geopolitikuri istoriis Sesaxeb. imas, rasac makkinderi evraziis „citadels“ uwodebda, ruseTis imperiis „hartlen-dis binadarTagan gamorCeuli Tavisi auracxeli adamianuri resursiTa da siZlieriT“ _ aRmosavleT nawilis or mesameds Seadgenda.3

sainteresoa, rom didma amerikelma samxedro-sazRvao Teoretikosma alfred Taier mehenma msgavsi mosazreba sul oTxi wliT adre, 1900 wels, gamoTqva.

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„rogorc ki rukas SevxedavT, maSinve yuradRebas ipyrobs erTi TvalSisacemi faqti _ ruseTis imperiis vrceli, uwyveti masa... Zalauflebis am elements -_ centralur mdebareobas _ emateba centralur aziaSi soliseburad SeWrili misi teritoria, romelic erTi mxridan daculia kavkasiis mTebiTa da xmeleTiT SemosazRvruli kaspiis zRviT, romlebic mTlianad ruseTis kontrolqveSaa, da meore mxridan _ mTagrexilebiT, romlebic avRaneTidan Crdilo-aRmosavleTiT CineTis dasavleT sazRvars mi-uyveba“.4

miuxedavad imisa, rom zogi Tanamedrove mjRabneli makkindersa da mehens ori absoluturad gansxvavebuli xed-vis mqone strategebad warmoaCens, es erT-erTi im mraval sak-iTxTagania, raSic maTi xedva garkveulwilad emTxveva. erTic da meorec sakuTari TvalTaxedviT miiCnevda, rom evraziis Suaguli, anu „hartlendi“, ZiriTadad Seuvali iyo sazRvao saxelmwifosTvis da rom mis udides nawils ruseTis imperia akontrolebda.

mTebi da udabno ki, romlebic cxenis nalis aRmosav-leT da samxreT nawilebs Seadgens, imperiis miznebs kargad emsaxureboda. barierebis gadalaxva, ra Tqma unda, SesaZle-beli iyo, oRond _ cxenebsa da aqlemebze amxedrebulTaTvis da ara didi samxedro SenaerTebisa Tu didi vaWrobisTvis.

marTlac, vaWroba evraziis xalvaTad dasaxlebul hartlendsa da mWidrod dasaxlebul CineTs Soris SedarebiT axali fenomenia. transmanjuriis rkinigza 1905 wels gaix-sna, transmonRoleTisa _ 1955 wels, xolo abreSumis gzis da yazaxeT-CineTis rkinigza _ 2011 wels. energomilsadenebi kidev ufro gvian aigo, vidre sarkinigzo xazebi: yazaxeT-Ci-neTis navTobsadeni _ 2005 wels, TurqmeneT-CineTis gazsad-eni _ 2009 wels, xolo aRmosavleT cimbiri-wynari okeanis navTobsadeni - 2011 wels.

evraziis hartlendTan advili misasvleli, anu cxenis nalis Ria bolo, dasavleTiT mdebareobs, ruseTis mWidrod dasaxlebuli punqtebis gaswvriv Tu maT siaxloves. evraziis hartlendSi misasvlelad sami kargi marSruti arsebobs. pi-rveli CrdiloeT evropuli dablobia, gza, romelic napo-leonma da hitlerma gamoiyenes. es nawilobriv xsnis ruse-

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Tis istoriul ltolvas poloneTis, baltiis qveynebisa da baltiis zRvispireTis mimarT. meore marSruti rumineTis dablobia, karpatis mTebsa da Sav zRvas Soris. es gza aseve gamoiyenes germaniam da rumineTis samxedro Zalebma 1941 wels ruseTSi SeWrisTvis. amiT nawilobriv aixsneba ruse-Tis istoriuli ltolva TurqeTis sruteebis, besarabiisa da ukrainis mimarT.

dRes orive am marSruts ruseTi akontrolebs. ukrai-nis amJamindeli problemebic nawilobriv am geografiidan momdinareobs _ kremli ver egueba karpatebis aRmosavleTiT da CrdiloeTiT mdebare am didi buferuli zonis dakargvis perspeqtivas.

evraziis hartlendTan misasvlel mesame marSruts samxreT kavkasiis aRmosavleT-dasavleTi derefani warmoad-gens, romelic saqarTvelosa da azerbaijanze gadis. iwyeba ra saqarTvelos SavizRvispira baTumis, foTis, oCamCirisa da soxumis portebidan, es marSruti kolxeTis subtropikul dablobze gadis da mdinare rionTan erTad, romelic dasav-leTiT Sav zRvaSi Caedineba, lixis mTebs miuyveba. marSruti adis lixis mTebze, romelic qmnis gamyof Txems Savi zRvisa da kaspiis zRvis auzebs Soris. 949 metris simaRlis suramis uReltexilis qveS, gvirabis bolosTan, marSruti uerTde-ba mdinare mtkvars, romelic aRmosavleTiT saqarTvelos dedaqalaq Tbilisis gavliT azerbaijanSi miedineba. azerbai-janSi mdinare mtkvars „kuras“ uwodeben. mtkvari e.w. kura-arezis, anu mtkvar-araqsis dablobs kveTs da azerbaijanis dedaqalaq baqos samxreTiT, kaspiis zRvaSi Caedineba.

es derefani cnobili iyo antikuri xanis moRvaweebisT-vis, magaliTad, mas straboni axsenebs Tavis 1-li saukunis da-sawyisis nawarmoebSi „geografia“,5 magram derefnis aRmavlo-ba me-19 saukunis bolos, baqos navTobis bumis dros daiwyo. nobelis da rotSildis ojaxebi baqos navTobSi msxvili inve-storebi iyvnen da maT 1883 wels daasrules rkinigzis mSen-ebloba baTumis portamde, romelic Tavisufali porti iyo, raTa es produqti ruseTis miRma bazrebze gaetanaT.6 1886 wels dinamitiT aafeTqes suramis uReltexili da sarkinigzo mimosvlac ufro efeqtiani gaxada. aman SesaZlebeli gaxada navTobsadenis mSenebloba, romelic 1903 wels dasrulda.7

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1919 wels makkinderma ganaaxla Tavisi geografiuli mdebareobis koncefcia, raTa masSi pirveli msoflio omis realiebi aesaxa da mas „hartlendis“koncefcia uwoda. misi 1904 wlis geografiuli mdebareobis koncefcia mTlianad efuZneboda fizikur geografias _ SezRuduli misawvdomoba, mkacri klimati da kontinenturi da arqtikuli mdinareebis auzi. Tumca Tavis yvelaze cnobil naSromSi, „demokratiuli idealebi da sinamdvile“, makkinderma dawera: „strategiuli azrovnebis TvalsazrisiT, hartlendi moicavs baltiis zR-vas, dunais navigaciisTvis gamosayenebel Sua da qveda nawils [da] Sav zRvas... hartlendi warmoadgens regions, romelTan miaxloebazec, arsebul pirobebSi, sazRvao Zalas SesaZloa uari eTqva, Tumca aqve aRsaniSnavia misi dasavleTi nawili, romelic ar miuyveba mdinaris auzis arqtikul da kontinen-tur regions“.8

makkinderis mosazrebis arss rom CavwvdeT, sakmarisia gavixsenoT mokavSireTa damarcxeba 1915-1916 wlebis galipo-lis brZolaSi da mTeli omis ganmavlobaSi maTi warumatebe-li mcdeloba, moepovebinaT Sav zRvasTan misasvleli. garda amisa, ruseTis revoluciis Semdeg 1918 wlis brest-litovs-kis zavma, uinston CerCilis sityvebiT Tu vityviT, germanias „ukrainis da cimbiris marcvleulis beRlebi, kaspiis navTo-bi, vrceli kontinentis yvela resursi“ misca.9

„demokratiuli idealebi da sinamdvilis“ daweridan maleve makkinderi praqtikos diplomatad iqca, romelic cdilobda, Savi zRvisa da samxreT kavkasiis bolSevikebis xelidan gamoglejas. 1919 wlis bolos makkinderi samxreT ruseTSi britaneTis komisrad dainiSna, umTavresad general anton denikis meTaurobis qveS myof ruseTis TeTrgvardi-elebTan emisrad. makkinderma britaneTis mTavrobas uTxra, rom bolSevikebi aramc da aramc ar unda mieSvaT Savi zRvis auzTan. miuxedavad amisa, britaneTma regionidan gasvla gad-awyvita, riTac sabWoTa kavSirs evraziis hartlendi 70 wliT dauTmo.10

sakmarisia gavixsenoT civi omis rkinis farda da 2008 wels saqarTveloze ruseTis Tavdasxma, rom mivxvdeT, rom did istoriul diapazonSi is adgilebi, romlebic makkinder-ma geopolitikuri mniSvnelobiT hartlends miakuTvna, kvla-vac paeqrobis sagania.

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saukunis garigeba

1991 wels sabWoTa kavSiri daiSala. centraluri aziis qveynebma, miuxedavad maTze moskovis gavlenisa, damoukide-bloba moipoves. azerbaijani da saqarTvelo gaTavisufld-nen. 1999 wels azerbaijanma, saqarTvelom da TurqeTma xeli moaweres baqo-Tbilisi-jeihanis navTobsadenis mSeneblobis xelSekrulebas. „ruseTs ar SeuZlia raime gvikarnaxos am sak-iTxTan dakavSirebiT,“ _ ganacxada azerbaijanis maSindelma prezidentma heidar alievma.11

baqo-Tbilisi-jeihanis navTobsadenis mSenebloba 2003 wels daiwyo, zustad erTi saukunis Semdeg, rac navTobma pi-rvelad samxreT kavkasiur milsadenSi gaiara. baqo-Tbilisi-jeihanis navTobsadenis mSenebloba 2005 wels dasrulda da 2006 wlis 28 maiss kaspiis navTobis pirveli nakadi kaspiis zRvaze baqos samxreTiT mdebare sangaCalis terminalidan 1,768-kilometriani milsadeniT azerbaijanis, saqarTvelos da TurqeTis gavliT jeihanamde _ xmelTaSua zRvis sana-piromde _ gavida.12 baqo-Tbilisi-jeihanis milsadeni Tan-amedrove samxreT kavkasiis aRmosavleT-dasavleT derefnis safuZveli gaxda. es, rogorc mas alievma uwoda, „saukunis garigeba“ iyo.13

navTobi da gazi

miuxedavad imisa, rom samxreT kavkasiis aRmosavleT-dasavleTi derefani bevrad metia, vidre mxolod ener-gomarSruti, navTobi da gazi masSi udides rols TamaSobs. baqo-Tbilisi-jeihanis amoqmedebamdec ki, e.w. „adreuli nav-Tobis“ transportireba 1999 wlidan daiwyo dasavleTis mima-rTulebis saeqsporto milsadeniT, romelic baqodan saqarT-velos Savi zRvis napirze mdebare sufsamde midis. sufsaSi navTobi tankerebSi itvirTeba da TurqeTis sruteebis gav-liT dasavleTis bazrebs miewodeba.14

garda amisa, baqo-Tbilisi-jeihanis roli 2006 wli-dan etapobrivad izrdeba. 2009 wels misma gamtarunariano-bam dReSi 1,2 milion barels miaRwia da axla navTobi ara mxolod azerbaijanidan, aramed TurqmeneTidan15 da yazaxe-Tidanac16 gadaaqvs. Turqmenuli da yazaxuri navTobi kaspiis

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zRvaze tankerebiT gadaizideba da sangaCalis terminalze baqo-Tbilisi-jeihanis milsadenSi itvirTeba. baqo-Tbilisi-jeihanis meore boloSi ki navTobi dasavleTis bazrebisTvis misawodeblad isev tankerebSi itvirTeba.

amasobaSi, yazaxeTi yazaxeT-kaspiis satransporto sis-temas aSenebs kaSaganis navTobsabadodan, romelic kaspiis zRvis CrdiloeTiT mdebareobs, raTa navTobi baqo-Tbilisi-jeihanis milsadenamde miitanos. kaSaganis navTobi eskenesTan arsebuli navTobgadamamuSavebeli qarxnidan milsadeniT kaspiis zRvis navsadgur kurikamde miva; iqidan kaspiis zRvis gavliT tankerebiT baqoSi Cava da Semdgom baqo-Tbilisi-jeihanis milsadenSi CaitvirTeba.17

baqo-Tbilisi-jeihanis milsadenis paralelurad, azerbaijansa da saqarTveloSi samxreT kavkasiis gazsaden-ic gadis, romelsac azerbaijanidan, zRvaSi arsebuli Sah-denizis sabadodan, bunebrivi airi TurqeTis gamanawilebel qselamde miaqvs.18 TurqeTis sistema dasavleT evropas am-aragebs TurqeTi-saberZneTi-italiis interkoneqtoris meS-veobiT. am interkoneqtoris TurqeTi-saberZneTis monakveTi, romelic karajabeidan komotinamde midis, 2007 wlidan fun-qcionirebs. saberZneT-italiis monakveTi 2015 wels amoqmed-deba komotinidan saberZneTis port iRumenicamde, ioniis zRvis sanapiroze. iqidan bunebrivi airi poseidonis wyalqve-Sa milsadeniT otrantos portamde, italiis apuliis region-Si miva.19

amave dros, samxreT kavkasiis aRmosavleT-dasavleT derefansa da dasavleT evropas Soris bunebrivi airis dam-akavSirebeli kvanZi Sah-denizis konsorciumis 2013 wlis 17 dekembris gancxadebam gaaZliera. konsorciumi, romel-sac „britiS petroliumi“ xelmZRvanelobs, bunebriv airis transportirebas Sah-denizis me-2 fazidan saqarTvelosa da azerbaijanSi gafarToebuli samxreT kavkasiis milsadeniT moaxdens, romelic daukavSirdeba axal transanatoliur milsadens, romelic TurqeTs gaivlis. kipoisTan saberZneTis sazRvris gadakveTis Semdeg bunebrivi airi transadriatiku-li milsadenis sistemaSi Seva da saberZneTis da albaneTis gavliT wyalqveSa milsadeniT italiis san fokas miaRwevs. proeqti 2019 wlisTvis unda dasruldes.20

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transanatoliuri/transadriatikuli milsadenis Ser-Cevam, sul mcire, droebiT gverdze gaswia alternatiuli nabukos proeqti. nabuko TurqeT-bulgareTis sazRvarze unda dawyebuliyo da bulgareTis, rumineTisa da ungreTis gavliT avstriaSi mdebare terminalamde unda misuliyo. garkveulwilad nabukos proeqti ufro metad gazrdida ev-ropis energodamoukideblobas da amavdroulad erTgvari gamowveva iqneboda ruseTidan centraluri da aRmosavleTi evropisTvis energomatareblebis miwodebis sabazro Rire-bulebebisTvis. miuxedavad amisa, nabukos proeqtze gadawy-vetilebis miRebis dros investorebisTvis ar iyo cxadi misi ekonomikuri safuZveli; transanatoliuri/transadriati-kuli milsadenis arCevani ki, samxreT kavkasiis aRmosavleT-dasavleTis derefniT azerbaijanul bunebriv airs myarad miabams dasavleT evropas.

garda arsebuli milsadenebisa da im proeqtebisa, romelTa gansaxorcieleblad ukve arsebobs finansuri da sainJinro gegmebi, warmodgenilia ramdenime energoproeqti, romlebic kidev ufro gaaZliereben samxreT kavkasiis aR-mosavleT-dasavleT derefnis rols: TeTri nakadi, romelic saqarTvelos rumineTTan daakavSirebs wyalqveSa milsadeniT; transkaspiuri milsadeni, romelic TurqmeneTsa da SesaZloa yazaxeTs baqosTan daakavSirebs da azerbaijan-saqarTvelo-rumineTis interkoneqtori, romelic Txevadi gazis trans-portirebas uzrunvelyofs saqarTvelos yulevis navTob-terminalidan rumineTis konstancis portamde.

matareblebi, portebi da gemebi

miuxedavad imisa, rom navTobis udidesi nawili milsad-eniT gadaizideba, nedli navTobis da sxva navTobproduqtebis rkinigziT transportireba mniSvnelovan komponentad rCeba. am sarkinigzo kavSiris satranzito punqti uaxlesi teqnol-ogiebiT aRWurvili baTumis portia, romelsac axla yazax-uri kompania „yaztransgazi“ marTavs.21 garda amisa, samxreT kavkasiis aRmosavleT-dasavleT derefnis, rogorc or zRvas Sua saxmeleTo gadasasvlelis, funqcionirebisTvis arsebiTi mniSvneloba eniWeba sarkinigzo transports, transkaspiur bornebs da maTTan dakavSirebul saSualebebs. nedli ma-

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salebi da sasoflo-sameurneo produqcia aRmosavleTidan dasavleTis mimarTulebiT moZraobs, xolo mza produqcia _ dasavleTidan aRmosavleTiT. regionis ekonomikur ganvi-TarebasTan erTad transportirebis modelebic ufro kom-pleqsuri gaxdeba. rasac yazaxuri kompaniis „iunistounis“ vebgverdidan aRebuli citatac adasturebs:

„SezRuduli pasuxismgeblobis mqone kompania „iunistou-ni“ (yazaxeTi) gegmavs aaSenos marcvleulis terminali qalaq baTumSi (saqarTvelo). yazaxeTis prezidentis n. a. nazarbaevis 23 ianvris [2013] miTiTebis Tanaxmad, romelic aqtau-baqo-baTumis marSrutze satvirTo gadazidvebis gazrdas exeba, aseve TanamSromlobis da partnioruli ur-TierTobebis gaRrmavebis farglebSi, [„iunistouni“] xels Seuwyobs yazaxeTidan tvirTis, maT Soris, satranzito saqonlis gatanis zrdas aqtau-baqo-baTumis marSrutze da aseve Savi zRviT importis Semotanis zrdas. yazaxeTis prezidentis rezoluciis Tanaxmad, kompania gaafarTovebs rogorc zogad satvirTo-satransporto momsaxurebas tvirTvis damuSavebisTvis, ise ganaviTarebs sazRvao ga-dazidvebs“.22

„iunistouni“ baTumSi aaSenebs marcvleulis eleva-torebsa da saWiro obieqtebs, rac gazrdis marcvleulis elevatorebis warmadobas, romlebic ukve funqcionirebs foTSi, baqosa da yazaxeTis kaspiis zRvis aqtaus portSi.

kidev erT indikatorad imisa, rom samxreT kavkasiis aRmosavleT-dasavleTi derefani aqtiuri da mzardi sis-temaTa sistemaa, yazaxeTis sanaosno vaWrobis ganviTarebac gamodgeba. „yazmortransfloti“ aqtauSi mdebareobs, Tumca igi ukve mniSvnelovnad aris warmodgenili baTumSic. „Cven vamayobT Cveni erovnuli kompaniis miRwevebiT, vamayobT, rom Cveni gemebi ara mxolod kaspiis zRvaSi dacuraven, aramed saerTaSoriso wylebSic gavidnen,“ _ ganacxada „yazmortrans-flotis“ generalurma menejerma marat ormanovma 2013 wlis TebervalSi, baTumis portTan TanamSromlobis xelSekruleb-is xelmoweris dros.23

amave dros, azerbaijani msxvil investiciebs axor-cielebs kaspiis zRvaze saporto infrastruqturaSi. 2010

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wels daiwyo muSaoba axali portis mSeneblobaze alatTan, romelsac samxreTiT 65 kilometri aSorebs baqos saerTaSor-iso sazRvao-savaWro ports. 7-kilometriani sanavigacio arxi ukve gayvanilia da axali porti muSaobas 2015 wlidan daiwyebs. portSi dagegmilia ori saborne navmisadgomisa da satvirTo gemebisTvis gankuTvnili rva navmisadgomis mSen-ebloba, romelTa warmadobac weliwadSi 11,6 milioni tona tvirTi iqneba.24 alatis gaxsnis da baTumisa da foTis por-tebis gaumjobesebis Semdeg samxreT kavkasiis aRmosavleT-dasavleT derefans Tanamedrove saporto infrastruqtura eqneba Sav da kaspiis zRvebze, romlebic rkinigziT daukavS-irdebian erTmaneTs.

garda amisa, sarkinigzo momsaxureba gascdeba samxreT kavkasias. 2013 wlis 29 oqtombers marmarais gvirabis inaugu-raciiT, romelic stambolTan bosforis srutis qveS gadis,25 da 2015 wels yarsi-Tbilisi-baqo sarkinigzo xazis mSeneblo-bis dasrulebiT26 SesaZlebeli iqneba londonis vaterloos sadgurSi matarebelSi Cajdoma da kaspiis zRvis napirze, baqoSi, Camosvla. samwuxarod, SesaZloa xangrZlivi lod-ini dagvWirdes, sanam aqtaus sarkinigzo boranze Cajdomas aqtauSi an TurqmeneTis kaspiis zRvis port TurqmenbaSiSi SevZlebT.

transkaspiuri sarkinigzo bornis momsaxurebis gaum-jobesebiT da ukeTesi sarkinigzo transportiT SesaZloa male gaxdes SesaZlebeli rkinigziT mgzavroba londonidan Sanxaimde an honkongamde. baqos aRmosavleTiT sarkinigzo momsaxureba, ra Tqma unda, ar aris samxreT-kavkasiis aR-mosavleT-dasavleT derefnis sistemaTa sistemis erTaderTi darCenili susti mxare. saavtomobilo transporti bevrad Camouvardeba milsadenebis, sarkinigzo da sazRvao trans-ports. aq xels transportirebis gaumjobesebas infrastruq-turuli xarvezebic uSlis da centraluri aziis qveynebTan iuridiuli da administraciuli barierebic, romlebic unda aRmoifxvras. magaliTad, miuxedavad yazaxeTis strategiu-li xedvisa da portebSi, marcvleulis elevatorebSi, gada-satvirT saSualebebsa da saokeano gemebSi misi mniSvnelo-vani investiciebis dabandebisa, zogi miiCnevs, rom am qveynis udidesi gamowveva marcvleulis Sida transportireba da da-sawyobebaa.27

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21-e saukunis optikur-boWkovani kabeli

kidev erTi gamowvevaa „cifruli gamyofi xazi“ _ ase uwodebs kompania Booz and Company Tavis kvlevaSi, erTi mxriv, centralur aziasa da kavkasias Soris da, meore mxriv, dasav-leT evropasa da aRmosavleT azias Soris arsebul mijnas.28 kompaniam es mobiluri aparatebis, stacionaruli kompiuter-ebis, internetis SeRwevadobis da farTozoliani gadacemis wvdomis mixedviT gazoma. viTarebis sworad danaxvisTvis arsebuli „cifruli veli“ albaT evraziis SuagulSi unda warmovidginoT. es mdgomareoba garkveulwilad TavisTavad gaumjobesdeba ekonomikur da infrastruqturul ganviTare-basTan erTad. am mizniT azerbaijani transevraziuli in-formaciuli supermagistralis (TASIM) iniciativiT gamovida, romelic iTvaliswinebs 11,000 km-is sigrZis optikur-boWko-vani kabelis gayvanas dasawyisisTvis wamSi 2 terabaitis far-Tozoliani gadacemiT frankfurtsa da honkongs Soris.29 es ambiciuri proeqtia, romelic Seesabameba im mniSvnelovan na-bijebs, romlebic gadaidga imisaTvis, rom samxreT kavkasiis aRmosavleT-dasavleT derefani 21-e saukunis yovlismomcv-el magistralad iqces.

daskvna

2014 wlis ganmavlobaSi da mas Semdeg, rac aSS da nato avRaneTidan gamovlen, gaCndeba iseTive lojistikuri gamowvevebi, rogoric iq Sesvlisas da Semdgomi momaragebisas warmoiqmna. rogorc endriu kaCinsma da Tomas sandersonma ga-nacxades, CrdiloeTis sadistribucio qseli 2009 wels Seiqm-na imisTvis, rom „mogvarebuliyo kritikulad mniSvnelovani sakiTxi: metismetad damokidebuleba arasaimedo momaragebis marSrutebze, romlebic yaraCis portidan avRaneTis rTulad kontrolirebadi gziT gadioda“.30 momaragebis marSrutebis simravle marTlac gonivruli gadawyvetileba iyo _ es iyo sasicocxlo mniSvnelobis strategiuli svla. sasicocxlod mniSvnelovani iyo aseve, rom ar gamxdariyvnen zedmetad damokidebuli ruseTze. Sesabamisad, CrdiloeTis sadis-tribucio qselis samxreTulma marSrutma samxreT kavkasiis

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aRmosavleT-dasavleT derefnis gavliT strategiuli mniS-vneloba SeiZina. kaCinsi da sandersoni ganmartaven:

„miuxedavad ruseTis, rogorc CrdiloeTis sadistribu-cio qselsa da avRaneTis stabilizaciis saqmeSi monawi-lis Tanabrad mniSvnelovani rolisa, misi qmedebebi kavka-siaSi da Savi da kaspiis zRvebis regionSi, mTlianobaSi, natosa da aseve, Tbilisisa da baqos interesebis sawi-naaRmdegod iyo mimarTuli. 2008 wlis agvistoSi saqarT-veloSi ruseTis intervenciis dros, moskovma mniSvnelo-vani zewola moaxdina ankaraze, rom mas mkacrad daecva montres konvencia da uari eTqva konfliqtSi CarTuli qarTvelebisTvis TurqeTis sruteebis gavliT aSS-is far-TomasStabian humanitarul daxmarebaze. amgvari zewolis gamoyeneba potenciurad dasaSvebi iyo natos saerTaSor-iso usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofis jarebisTvis gankuT-vnili maragebis miwodebasTan dakavSirebiTac“.31

miuxedavad imisa, rom natos operacia avRaneTSi, zoga-dad, ruseTis interesebsac emTxveoda, kaCinsma da sandersma sworad Seafases moskovis grZelvadiani xedva.

eWvic ar unda Segveparos imaSi, rom 2008 wels ruse-Tis Tavdasxma saqarTveloze iyo Tavdasxma samxreT kavkasi-is aRmosavleT-dasavleT derefnis dasavlur interesebze. ruseTis omis gegmaSi moniSnuli iyo am derefnis yoveli el-ementi: Tbilisi-baTumis gzaze sakontrolo punqtebi, foTis portis dangreva, sazRvao blokada, baqo-sufsis milsaden-isTvis safrTxis Seqmna bombebiTa da saraketo dartymebiT da cecxlis Sewyvetis Semdeg kaspis sarkinigzo xidis danaRm-vac ki. moskovis Canafiqri aSkara iyo _ is Seecdeba samxreT kavkasiis aRmosavleT-dasavleT derefnis gakontrolebas.

araferi Seicvleba kremlis xedvaSi avRaneTidan na-tos gamosvlis Semdgom. elodeT, rom moskovi CrdiloeTis sadistribucio qselis gaswvriv, gansakuTrebiT mis samxreT marSrutze, diplomatiuri da samxedro „calmxrivi moZrao-bis“ uzarmazar niSnebs aRmarTavs.

nu gveqneba molodini, rom kremli sixaruliT Sexvdeba samxreT kavkasiaSi ufro meti da ufro msxvili milsadeneb-isa da rkinigzebis, Tanamedrove portebisa da marcvleulis

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elevatorebis mSeneblobas, londonidan Sanxaimde potenci-ur sarkinigzo mimosvlasa Tu evraziis hartlendis roter-damTan an hiustonTan dakavSirebis perspeqtivas. es dasav-luri interesebia da ara rusuli.

dasavleTisTvis ki bevri xelsayreli mizezi arsebobs imisTvis, rom ara mxolod miesalmos, aramed daxmareba gau-wios samxreT kavkasiis aRmosavleT-dasavleT derefnis ga-Zlierebas. ra sirTuleebsac ar unda ukavSirdebodes es, evropisTvis energomomaragebis diversifikacia aucilebeli faqtoria. aseve mniSvnelovania sxva nedleulis xelmisawv-domoba, axali bazrebis gaxsna, axali savaWro gzebis da mTli-anad ekonomikis ganviTareba im regionSi, romelic evropis mezobelia. garda amisa, dasavleTs sWirdeba TanamSromloba kontrterorizmisa da samarTlebriv sakiTxebSi, gansakuTre-biT adamianebiT, narkotikebiT, iaraRiT da birTvuli masale-biT trefikingis aRmofxvraSi.

marTalia, amas dro dasWirdeba, magram samxreT kavkasiisa da centraluri aziis sruli damoukidebloba da politikuri ganviTareba aseve Sedis dasavleTis interesebSi. sxvaTa Soris, damoukidebeli da efeqtiani samxreT kavkasiis aRmosavleT-dasavleTi derefani saboloo jamSi sargebels moutans ruseTis hartlendis did nawilsac. samwuxarod, moskovis saxelisuflebo struqtura amas ase ar aRiqvams.

am da sxva mizezebis gamo, dasavleTma unda gaaRrmavos urTierTobebi azerbaijansa da saqarTvelosTan da gaaZli-eros damoukidebeli kavSirebi yazaxeTTan, yirgizeTTan, ta-jikeTTan, TurqmeneTsa da uzbekeTTan. Cven unda gaviazroT samxreT kavkasiis aRmosavleT-dasavleT derefnis, rogorc sistemaTa sistemis potenciali, frTxilad avwon-davwonoT Cveni interesebi da mtkiced vimoqmedoT. es ar iqneba sam-uSao susti gulis mqone, zedapiruli an mouTmeneli adami-anebisTvis. miuxedavad amisa, samxreT kavkasiis aRmosavleT-dasavleT derefnis istoriis Semcvleli potenciali aSkaraa iseve, rogorc dasavleTis interesi am potencialis reali-zebaSi.

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gamoyenebuli literatura

1 am mosazrebisTvis madlobas vuxdi Shape Up Houston-is prezidents, len benstens.

2 Halford J. Mackinder, «The Geographical Pivot of History,» Democratic Ideals and Reality, New York, W.W. Norton, 1962, pp. 241-264.

3 iqve, gv. 1-205.

4 A. T. Mahan and Francis P. Sempa, The Problem of Asia: Its Effect upon International Politics, New Brunswick, N.J., Transaction Publishers, 2003.

5 “Azerbaijan i: Geography,” Encyclopaedia Iranica, www.iranicaonline.org/articles/azer-baijan-i (nanaxia 2014 wlis 21 Tebervals).

6 Emil Avdaliani, “The Battle for Transcaucasian Railway and Oil: The Nobels, Rothschilds and Rockefellers in Georgia,” Investor.ge, www.investor.ge/article_2013_3.php?art=12 (nanaxia 2014 wlis 21 Tebervals).

7 Brita Åsbrink, «The Oil Requires Tunnels to be Built through the Caucasus Mountains,» The Branobel History, www.branobelhistory.com/themes/oil-distribution/the-oil-requires-tunnels-to-be-built-through-the-caucasus-mountains/ (nanaxia 2014 wlis 21 Teber-vals).

8 Mackinder, Democratic Ideals.

9 Winston Churchill, The World Crisis, New York, Scribner, 1931.

10 1919-1921 ww-is movlenebis ufro srulyofili aRwerisTvis ix.: Russia’s 2008 Attack in Historical Perspective,» Tabula, www.tabula.ge/en/blog/70876-geopolitics-endures-russias-28-attack-in-historical-perspective (nanaxia 2014 wlis 22 Tebervals).

11 Steve LeVine, The Oil and the Glory: The Pursuit of Empire and Fortune on the Caspian Sea, New York, Random House, 2007.

12 “Spanning Three Countries from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean Coast,” BP.com, www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle.do?categoryId=9006669&contentId=7015093 (nana-xia 2014 wlis 21 Tebervals).

13 Dan Morgan and David Ottaway, «Azerbaijan’s Riches Alter the Chessboard,» Wash-ington Post, www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/europe/caspian100498.htm (nanaxia 2014 wlis 21 Tebervals).

14 «Western Route Export Pipeline,» BP.com, www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle.do?categoryId=9006672&contentId=7015099 (nanaxia 2014 wlis 23 Tebervals).

15 “Turkmen Oil Starts Flowing Through BTC Pipeline,” RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty, www.rferl.org/content/Turkmen_Oil_Starts_Flowing_Through_BTC_Pipeline/2126224.html (nanaxia 2014 wlis 23 Tebervals).

16

16 «Kazakh Oil Secures BTC volumes - GEOTV,» GeorgianNewsTV, www.georgianews.ge/business/25236-kazakh-oil-secures-btc-volumes.html (nanaxia 2014 wlis 23 Teber-vals).

17 «Kazakhstan Caspian Transportation System,» KazMunayGas JSC, www.kmg.kz/en/manufacturing/oil/kkst/ (nanaxia 2014 wlis 24 Tebervals).

18 «South Caucasus Pipeline,» BP.com, www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle.do?categoryId=9006670&contentId=7015095 (nanaxia 2014 wlis 23 Tebervals).

19 «ITGI: Turkey - Greece - Italy Gas Pipeline,» Edison.it, www.edison.it/en/company/gas-infrastructures/itgi.shtml (nanaxia 2014 wlis 23 Tebervals).

20 «Trans Adriatic Pipeline Confirms Resolution to Construct,» Natural Gas Europe, www.naturalgaseurope.com/trans-adriatic-pipeline-to-construct (accessed February 23, 2014); «Shah Deniz Stage 2,» BP.com, www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle.do?categoryId=9046884&contentId=7080518 (accessed February 23, 2014) and «Trans Adriatic Pipeline,» Trans Adriatic Pipeline, www.trans-adriatic-pipeline.com/home/ (nanaxia 2014 wlis 23 Tebervals).

21 `baTumis sazRvao navsadguri~, Batumiport.com, www.batumiport.com/index.php?action_skin_change=yes&skin_name=en (nanaxia 2014 wlis 24 Tebervals).

22 «Investment Project: Batumi Grain Terminal,» Unistone Company, www.unistone.kz/eng/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=46&Itemid=104 (nanaxia 2014 wlis 24 Tebervals).

23 N. Kirtskhalia, «Kazmortransflot, Batumi Industrial Holding Sign Memorandum of Coop-eration,» Trend, www.en.trend.az/capital/business/2117534.html (accessed February 24, 2014).

24 E. Ismayilov, «Azerbaijan to Partially Complete Construction of Largest Caspian Port in 2014,» Trend, www.en.trend.az/capital/business/2172266.html (nanaxia 2014 wlis 24 Tebervals).

25 «Turkey’s Bosphorus Sub-Sea Tunnel Links Europe and Asia,» BBC News, www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24721779 (nanaxia 2014 wlis 24 Tebervals).

26 Jamila Babayeva, «Baku-Tbilisi-Kars Railway to be Completed in 2015,» AzerNews, www.azernews.az/business/64672.html (nanaxia 2014 wlis 24 Tebervals).

27 Gulmira Isakova, «Kazakhstan Faces Grain Storage Problem,» Central Asia Online, www.centralasiaonline.com/en_GB/articles/caii/features/main/2012/01/10/feature-01 (nanaxia 2014 wlis 24 Tebervals).

28 «TASIM/EuraCA: New Platforms for Improving Connectivity in Eurasia,» United Na-tions Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, www.unescap.org/idd/events/2013-Expert-Consultation/3.1%20TASIM%20EuraCA%20New%20platforms%20for%20improving%20connectivity%20in%20Eurasia.pdf (nanaxia 2014 wlis 23 Teber-vals).

17

29 «TASIM,» Ministry of Communications and Information Technologies, www.mincom.gov.az/projects/tasim/ (nanaxia 2014 wlis 24 Tebervals) and Aynur Jafarova, «TA-SIM’s Technical, Financial Issues to be Resolved by mid-2014,» AzerNews, www.azernews.az/business/64211.html (nanaxia 2014 wlis 24 Tebervals).

30 Andrew Kuchins and Thomas Sanderson, «The Northern Distribution Network and Af-ghanistan,» Center for Strategic and International Studies, https://csis.org/files/publica-tion/091229_Kuchins_NDNandAfghan_Web.pdf (nanaxia 2014 wlis 23 Tebervals).

31 iqve.

18