QUAN TR TAI CHNH

Quan tr tai chnh1.1 Khai niem:

Qttchinh :tien mat tai san doanh nghiep quan he tai chnh (tai san doanh nghiep: tai san thc tai san tai chnh)

Tai san thc: hu hnh (ong san va bat ong san)+ vo hnh

Tai san tai chnh:chng khoan, thng phieu (giao dch tren th trng tai chnh)

W tai chnh: mua ban chng khoan, tai san tai chnh(1) (s cap mua lan au tien, th cap mua ban lai chng khoan ang lu hanh tren th trng.

Quyet nh ngan quy von: au t vao loai tai san thc nao?

Quyet nh au t: quyet nh ve s dung von (mua may moc vao sx khong?, ban may may cu di?, mua cong ty khac?, xay dng them?

Quyet nh tai tr: cung cap von cho au t (s dung noi bo hay ben ngoai = tai au t? Hay phat hanh chng khoan mi, Vay ngan han hay dai han,)

E: von co phan D: von vay

1.2 Tam quang trong: - ton tai va phat trien to chc (tnh quyet nh) + kiem soat trc tiep toan doanh nghiep.

1.3 Cac moi quan he tai chnh:

doanh nghiep: DN vi ngan sach nha nc: chu yeu phuc vu cho DNNN (co han: khong am bao song song vi c che th trng.)

DN vi w tien te: Von ngan han, W lien ngan hang, W chng khoan.

DN vi noi bo: phan phoi thu nhap( t li nhuan cho co ong, gi lai au t, au t tch luy, tieu dung

DN vi W khac: cung cap, W lao ong, W hang hoa/hang hoa san pham dich vu hoan thien cho w.

1.4 Chc nang cua quan tr tai chnh: 1/phan tch, hoach nh, kiem soat tai chnh. 2/nghien cu va quyet nh au t 3/quyet nh chnh sach phan phoi li nhuan 4/ra quyet nh tai tr.

1.5 v tr tai chnh trong c cau to chc mot doanh nghiep:

GTC: phong ke toan (KTTC-KT thue-KTTC) + Phong tai chnh(QT ton kho,QT tn dung)

Vai tro giam oc tai chnh: 1/am bao nguon tai chnh cho doanh nghiep 2/ huy ong c nguon von vi chi ph re nhat 3/ s dung hieu qua nguon von 4/ thc hien phan tch tai chnh doanh nghiep nh ky 5/ lap ke hoach tai chnh cho ky ke hoach 6/ giam sat toan bo ngan quy von

1.5 muc tieu cua doing nghiep: 1/ toi a hoa tai san cua co ong 2/ toi a hoa li nhuan 3/ toi a gia co phieu.

1.6 qua trng ra quyet nh cua cong ty (tai chnh) : muc ch la toi a hoa tai san co ong (s mang).

Ky thuat phan tch, hoach nh va kiem soat: (quyet nh quan tr von lu ong + quyet nh tai san dai han + quyet nh c cau tai chnh tai san dai han) ( rui ro va hoan von ( quyet nh tai chnh ( gia tr doanh nghiep (hu hnh va vo hnh)

Chng 02 phan tch TCDN

2.1 Dan nhap TTTCDN: tra li: 1/ lam an li hay khong? 2/ lam an co hieu qua khong 3/ von c phan bo u va ung luc khong?

Muc ch: 1/ anh gia c cac quyet nh tai chnh tren c s quyet nh kinh doanh cua cong ty 2/ nhan biet c tiem nang tang trng va phat trien cua cong ty 3/ nhan biet c ton tai cua cong ty 4/ lap nhu cau can thiet cho nam ke hoach.

Phu thuoc: 1/ quan iem ngi phan tch 2/ o bao quat va chieu sau ngi phan tch 3/ so lng va chat lng so lieu co c.

Cong cu phan tch tai chnh: 1/ cac ty so tai chnh 2/ cac phng phap khac gom: pt iem hoa von, chiec khau dang ngan lu, d an tai chnh.

Yeu cau khi phan tch tai chnh:1/ anh gia thc trang/phng dien bao am von DN 2/ hieu qua s dung cua tng loai von khac nhau trong doanh nghiep 3/ lng hoa c cac nhan to anh hng en tai chnh doanh nghiep.

Von: co nh + lu ong hay: E (csh) + D (vay) hay: von kinh doanh, von khac

Chu y: moi doanh nghiep co von khac nhau: VD thng mai von ln, san xuat von nho nen co the anh gia lech.

2.2 Cac ban bao cao tai chnh(moi doanh nghiep hang nam co 4 ban sau:

1/ bang can oi ke toan + ban bao cao thu nhap (lai lo) + bao cao nhan lu + bao cao von co phan.(nguyen tac ke toan). Tai san co = n + von co phan.

2.2.1 bang can oi ke toan.

1/kn: bckt la bang bao cao tai chnh c lap vao 1 thi gian nhat nh thng c lap vao ngay 31/12 cua nam theo 2 cach.

Phan loai von va nguon hnh thanh cua von. Can oi nhau ben tai san co, n, von cua phan. 2/thanh phan cua cua bang can oi ke toan. TS co: phan anh gia tr toan bo tai san. en ngay 31/12 (thi gian nhat nh) TS co: 1(tai san lu ong) 2(tai san co nh) 3(tai san vo hnh) han s dung di mot nam

(1) tien mat(tai DN, tai Tkhoan) chng khoan thanh khoan cao (ban luc nao cung c t bien ong) cac khoan phai thu(ban hang theo phng thc tn dung) ton kho

(2) cac khoan phai thu: ky thu tien bnh quan, lch trnh thu cac khoan phai thu, chnh sach tn dung cua doanh nghiep (thi han tn dung, chnh sach thu khoan phai thu, t le chiec khau cho khach hang)

(3) ton kho: nguyen vat lieu, ban thanh pham, thanh pham ni sx, kho, dang van chuyen ti khach hang.

Bao hiem a ong nam trong tai san lu ong

Tai san co nh: hu hnh va vo hnh, tai san thue tai chnh tham gia nhieu chu ky kinh doanh nhng van gi nguyen hnh thai vat chat ban au cua no.

Cach nhan biet tai san co nh hu hnh: thu c li ch trong tng lai, nguyen gia tai san phai c xac nh mot cach tin cay, co thi han s dung tren mot nam, c1o gia tr ln hn 10 trieu ong.

Khau hao tai san co nh: theo thi gian, gia tr giam dan, (do chu ky KD, do KT)

Tnh toan, phan bo co he thong, cua nguyen gia tscd, kd trong thi gian s dung.

TSCnet = nguyen gia TSC khau hao luy ke ((Mkh) = G tsc - ((Mkh)

@cac phng phap khau haoa. theo ng thang: Mkh=Gtsc/N(vong i); Mkh=[Gtsc Gtsc con lai]/NGtsc: nguyen gia tsc. Gtsc con lai: khi thanh ly.

b. khau hao nhanh(theo so d giam dan: Mkh = Gia tr con lai cua tsc*%khau hao nhanh; %KHN= %KH t * he so ieu chnh; t le khau hao theo ng thang (%KH t) = 1/ TSDtsc*100 (thi han s dung TSC)

he so ieu chnh theo thi gian cua TSC: t < 4 nam = 1,5; 4 1 nam: ngan hang, trai phieu cong ty, hoan tra thu nhap.

Von co phan: co phan u ai, co phan thng, li nhuan gi lai, von bo sungac tnh chung cua chng khoan:

BON CP U AI CP THNG

1/ von vay von gop la von gop cua co ong

2/ co ngay ao han khong ao han khong ao han

3/ lai nh ky/co nh CTtrcCPthng,nh ky,co nh - sau , HC quyet nh, chia theo sxkd

4/lai khong phu thuoc sxkd tng tu co phu thuoc sxkd

5/pha san c thanh toan trc sau bon sau u ai.

Li nhuan gi lai: noi lc, tai au t, tch luy t li nhuan doanh nghiep.

LNGL = LNGLt-1 + (LR CT) lai rong tr co tc, t-1: nam trc o.

Von bo sung: xuat hien khi th gia ln hn th gia

2.2.2 bang bao cao thu nhap: tong hp- phan anh ket qua sxkd trong 1 nam

1/ thanh phan : thu nhap (thu d tnh, dch vu khac), chi ph (sxsp, ban hang), thu nhap rong (lien quan co tc, li nhuan giu lai)

a> doanh thu thuan: gia von ban hang.

b> Lai gop: chi ph hoat ong khac (gian tiep)

c> Thu nhap thc te va lai: (EBIT) lai vay phai tra neu co

d> Thu nhap sau thue

2.2.3 Bao cao ngan lu:

a. muc ch: cho thay moi quan he gi thu nhap rong oi vi nhng thay oi trong tien mat, cho biet tnh hnh ngan lu torng qua kh (d oan tng lai, anh gia kha nang tai ra va s dung tien mat cap quan tr, tnh thanh khoan cua cong ty:lai, co tc, n ngan han.

b. Khai niem: bao cao cho biet thu chi tien mat cua mot to chc trong mot thi gian nhat nh.xuat x lng tien mat trong thi gian nhat nh va chi vao au, t cach phap nhan trong mot thi gian nhat nh.

C: thanh phan:

1/ ngan lu t hsx

Vao: (thu)khach hang, li tc, co tc thu c, cac khoan phai thu khac.

Ra: (chi)tien mat tra, tien tra cho lao ong, tra lai va thue, cac khoan chi khac.

2/ ngan lu t au t:

Vao: ban ong san, bat ong san, ban chng khoan, au t dai han, thu hoi von vay.

Ra: mua ong san, bat ong san, mua chng khoan, au t dai han, cho vay von

3/ ngan lu t hoat ong tai tr

vao: vay t chu n, phat hanh chng khoan

Ra: tra vay ti han, mua lai co phieu.

Tnh ngan lu NLR(NCF) = LR + KH tsc thue thu nhap:

NLR = LR + KHTSC T thu nhap = EBIT

LR + KH = EAT

NL thsxkd = NLR + (tr) TSLnet; TSLnet = TSL NNH (TSL?

2.3 phan tch ty so tai chnh: nguon BC thu nhap, ngan lu, CKT, muc ch?

Tm kiem g? Kha nang sinh li, mc rui ro ky vong cua no.(t moi loai hnh cua doanh nghiep)

1/ cac khai niem ty so tai chnh: la gia tr bieu hien moi quan he gia 2 hay nhieu so lieu tai chnh khac nhau (theo phng phap so sanh nam pt vi nam trc, trung bnh nganh, doanh nghiep cung nganh.(chy y c cau von, doanh nghiep mi)

cong thc:

1. ROE: o lng hieu qua s dung von co phan (VCSH). Thu nhap tren mot ong von co phan thng hay mc hoan von au t.

ROE = LR/CPthng (LR a chia co tc u ai) thng >15% th tot.

Trung bnh nganh 20%, at 18% thi van cha at yeu cau.

ROE = LR/VCPT = LR/DT*DT/TTS * TTS/VCPT

LR/DT: li nhuan bien te. DT/TTS: hieu suat tong tai san. TTS/VCPT: on bay tai chnh

LR/DT: li nhuan bien(suat doanh thu): o lng lng lai thu c tren mot ong doanh thu. Quan trong cho quan tr, phan ach chien lc gia, cho phep kiem soat chi ph Cong thc LR/DT ln cang tot

LR= TDT TCP;

ROA (suat sinh li tren tong von) = LR/DT*DT/TTS o lng hieu qua s dung nguon tai san.co c?/mot ong von bo vao kinh doanh.

TTS = D+E (von cp, von vay) = TSL +TSC

2. Vong quay ton kho: Vtk: do lng mc luan chuyen ts hang hoa di hnh thc ton kho, hay d tr trong mot nam(so vong trong nam suy ra ngay?)

Vtk = gia von ban hang/gia tr ton kho bnh quan GTTK = (Tko +TK1)/2 ch 1 nam

Chu y Vtk ln thi thieu d tr.do o vong quay hp ly.Tnh thi gian ton kho: Ttk = 1/ Vtk (nam); Tkk-thang = 12/Vtk; Ttk ngay=365/Vtk3. ky thu tien binh quan: (DSO)o lng thi gian bnh quan thu tien t khach hang mua tn dung. DSO = KPT*365/DT tn dung. Dttndung=KPT/DT tndung ngayADS: doanh thu tn dung ngay

DSO: anh hng chnh sach tn dung cong ty, thi han tn dung, chi ph tn dung.

DSO < ,= ky thu tien thc te = tot, >10-15 ngay chap nhan c, > 15 ngay = te.Te: chiem dung von qua lau.Vong quay cac khoan phai thu:tien thu c nhanh hay cham khi dung ban hang tn dung Lkpt = 365/DSO

4. ky thanh toan bnh quan (PP):o lng thi gian thanh toan bnh quan , kha kha nang thanh toan tien cua cong ty vi khach hang.

PP = KPTra * 365 / chi ph SX hang hoa do cong thc: = KPTra/(cpsxhh/365)

So vong quay cac khoan phai tra: SVQkptra = 365/PP

5. hieu suat tai san co nh: o lng lng doanh thu co c tren mot ong TSC a vao sx Htsc = DT( bao cao thunhap)/TSCnet(bang CKT) 2,2=2,2vong nam.

D. on bay tai chnh:o lng thanh khoan cua cong ty.

Lien quan en von vay co sinh li co nh tren von co nh cua cong ty.

Cong ty dung von co ong e vay mn tao li nhuan.

o lng quan he TTS, VCPT trong c cau von

TSBTCcao th ROE cao cung la rui ro tang theo.

TTS/VCPT = (D+E)/E = 1 + D/E : do o D/E cao rui ro ve n??????

D=E ( D/E = 1 , D > E ( D/E >1, D < E ( D/E ,=1 th totTy so ngan lu t HSXKD oi vi n ngan han: o lng kha nang thanh toan nnh t hsxkd. TSnlthsxkd = NLthsxkd/NNH

2. anh gia kha nang thanh toan n dai han

chi tra von vay, lai goc dai han khi ao han

mat kha nang thanh toan co the tai cau truc, hoach thanh toan n.

D = NNH + NDH: c cau tai chnh; D = NDH c cau von

Ty so n dai han: = NDH/(NDH+VCP) Ty so n = tong n/tong von = D/Aon can n = vay dai han/von chu s hu = D/ESo lan thanh toan lai vay t thu nhap(TIE) kha nang thanh toan lai vay t thu nhap, ro mat kha nang thanh toan n dai han.TIE=5-6 lan manh3-4 lan thng, en von lu ong, nang suat thay oi=> VL thay oi.

d. Chnh sach kinh te cua DN: + => VL

Lu y: 1/ thay oi VL khong nhat thiet lam thay oi VL thuan.

4. nhu cau von lu ong:

a. quy mo DN va va nho can hn DN ln(kha nang vay, quan he thap)

b. hoat ong SXKD

c. nguon tn dung san co: moi quan he, danh tieng cong ty

d. lng nguyen vat lieu va vat t d tr

e. VL trong SX

f. SP hoan thien

g. Khoan phai thu cua doanh nghiep.

5. mo hnh chu ky luan chuyen VL

mua san xuat ban ra

thu ve

a. CKLCVL la khoan ti gian t khi mua NVL en thu tien ve nh ban sp dich vu

Cvl = Ttk + Tkpthu Tkptra VL = TSL NNH

Ttk: thi gian ton kho:la thi gian trung bnh can thiet e hoan chuyen NVL thanh TP va sau o ban i. = 1/Vtk, thang = 12/Vtk, ngay = 365/Vtk.

= gia tr ton kho bnh quan/(DT/365) (lien quan Vtk) = Gtk/COGS(gia von ban hang)/365 ngayDT: gia von ban hang.

Tkpthu: thi gian thu cac khoan phai thu: thi gian trung bnh e thu cac khoan phai thu thanh tien mat. DSO = KPThu*365/DT

Tkptra: thi gian thanh toan cac phoan phai tra: la thi gian trung bnh t khi mua NVL, thue l cho en khi tra lng va thanh toan hoa n NVL

Tkptra = KPTra*365/COGS (au ky cuoi ky cua TK tnh trung bnh)

6. Moi quan he gia tai tr von dai han va von ngan han.

kinh doan can von => au t S va BS bang can oi thu chi => giam ngan sach dch vu ti mc toi e tranh boi chi.(thanh toan va cai tien phng phap thu chi

b. qua trnh thanh toan sec: khong s dung c ngay, no vao tai kgoan ngan hang, hoan tat thu tuc mi dung c.

c. Tan dung chenh lech thi gian thu chi:

d. Toc o thu hoi tien mat:khuyen khch, giam trung gian chuyen, thanh toan tap trung qua ngan hang,hng dan thanh toan

e. Phng thc chuyen tien: th chuyen tien (sec), chuyen ien t

9. d tnh chi ph cua dch vu quan tr tien mat:

a. chi ph tang them = li nhuan tang them P =(D)*(S)*(I)

P: tang chi ph s dung sec, D: so ngay tiet kiem c khi thu tien

S: lng sec trung bnh tnh bang tien mat c x ly. I:chi ph c hoi trc thue (ty suat hoan von) cua vic gi tien mat.

10. lng tien mat toi u Q = 2*TM(lng tien mat s dung nam)*P/r

P: chi ph cho lan rut tien.

Theo phng phap: (miller)

S dung mot lng tien mat toi thieu .an toan, xac nh mot mc gii han tren mc chuan mot mc tien mat nen gi.

Tnh khoan cach: K = 3*(in xong ngi)

II. quan tr chng khoan

CK thanh khoan cao la co the ban ngay trong mot thi gian ngan.

Thu nhap mang lai cho cong ty t hn so vi ang hoat ong.

Ly do gi chng khoan : tai san gan vi tien mat, au t tam thi.

Tam thi v se tai tr cho sxkd theo mua, chu ky sx. Nhu cau tai tr.

1. rui ro khi au t vao chng khoan:

mat thanh toan cua cong ty phat hanh chng khoan, ot ngot, lai suat, lam phat, rui ro thanh khoan, thu nhap chng khoan, chng khoan thanh khoan cao.

a. trai phieu kho bac nha nc: ao han theo quy, 6 thang, nam

b. chap thuan ngan hang: hoi phieu,( lenh chi tra)30 180 ngay.

c. Chng ch tien gi co the chuyen nhng: (CD)

d. Thng pheu: n ngan han, phieu hen thanh toan khong bao am, c mot to chc kinh doanh ban nham tang von. T 3 270 ngay ao han.

e. Chap thuan mua lai: la nhng hp ong hp phap

3. s dung phng phap Baumol can oi tien mat va CK

C: lng tien mat nhu cau tang thembang cach ban chng khoan hay vay n

C/2: von tien mat bnh quan, C*: von tien mat toi u

F: chi ph co nh cho viec mua ban chng khoan hay vay n

T: tong von tien mat can thiet cho cho cac nghiep vu kinh te trong thi gian tnh toan

K: chi ph c hoi khi gi tien mat

Tong chi ph = chi ph gi tien mat + chi ph cho cac nghiep vu kinhte

Tong chi ph = C/2*K + so nghiep vu kinh te*chi ph cho mot nghiep vu

Tong chi ph = (C/2)*K + (T/C)*F => min

Lay ao ham =>C* = can 2 cua: 2FT/K (lng tien mat phuc hoi)

Chng 6 quan tr khoan phai thu va quan tr ton kho

V yeu to canh tranh nen phai ban hang tn dung.

1. tch luy cac khoan phai thu: KPThu = DTtn dung/ngay*ky thu tien bnh quan

2. theo gioi tnh hnh khoan phai thu: KPThu toi u => chnh sach tn dung toi u

khi thc hien doanh thu tn dung => ton kho giam bang gia von ban hang, khoan phai thu tang len bang gia hang ban ra. Chenh lech o la li nhuan gi lai. Trong thc te ban hang thu tien lien th chenh lech la phan thu nhap, con ban hang tn dung th en khi thu ve mi chuyen vao li nhuan nen thanh tra sm se giam rui ro)

3. ky thu tien bnh quan: la thi gian can thiet e thu hoi het so doanh thu tn dung.

DTbnh quan ngay ADS = DT/365 ngay

Ky thu tien bnh quan: DSO = KPThu/DT*365 = KPThu /doanh thu ngay4. Bieu thi gian thu khoan phai thu: la bao cao ch ro bao lau se c thu hoi cac KPThu. (% ti han, % qua han) thng xuyen xem cac khoan phai thu vi chnh sach tn dung. Ky thu tien bnh quan tang => chan chnh lai chnh sach tn dung (co the tham tra)

5. chnh sach tn dung:

thi han tn dung: (quy nh thi gian tn dung va mc chiec khau ap dung)

cac nh chuan tn dung: quy nh khach hang nao thanh toan tn dung eu an, so lng tn dung chap thuan cho tng khach hang.(KH thanh toan tre th ap dung thu ngay, hay tra trong thi gian ngan, xet oan kha nang thanh toan) phng phap oan: 1/xem t cach tn dung, tnh t giac, ha hen thanh toan, 2/ kha nang thanh toan: anh gia, xem qua tnh hnh thc te cua ho 3/ von: t so n/von, t so thanh toan von lu ong, t so thanh toan lai vay t thu nhap. 4/ vat the chap. 5/eu kien kinh te: kinh te noi chung, kinh te vung. Phng phap thong ke: thng ap dung, so lieu thong ke thanh toan cua tng khach hang. Phng phap Nguon thong tin tn dung: hiep hoi tn dung, trao oi ve thong tin tn dung khach hang. Nguon ben ngoai. Bang bao cao gom: 1/ bang tong ket tai san, lo lai. 2/ cac ty so anh gia 3/ thong tin t cac doanh nghiep cung ng cho biet thanh toan dung hay tre hen. 4/ mo ta bang li cac ieu kien vat chat cua DNSX. 5/ bang xep hang cac rui ro tn dung t khach hang.

Chnh sach tn dung: qua trnh thc hien cac KPThu, bao n, nhac n, goi ien nen phong nga thi han thu tn dung keo dai.

Chiec khau ban hang: la chnh sach giam gia hang cho KH thanh toan sm. Ty le chiec khau toi u la chi ph bien te = li nhuan. Chu y thi vu.

6. cac nhan to anh hng en chnh sach tn dung:

li nhuan tiem nang: co li hn ban hang lay tien lien khong?

cac ieu kien hp phap: nen gia co nh chung cho cac KH.

Cong cu tn dung: 1/ chap thuan thanh toan qua ngan hang khi nhan c hang. 2/ phieu hen thanh toan: lai suat, tien o thanh toan, thi han thanh toan, va ieu kien khac. 3/ hoi phieu thng mai: la lenh chi tra tien cho ngi ban khi ngi mua nhan c hang. Hoi phieu xuat trnh lan au thi thanh toan ngay khi u ieu kien, con theo thi gian th cu the trong tng lai, ngi ban co the em no i vay.

ieu kien ban hang theo hp ong:

7. phan tch s thay oi chnh sach tai chnh:

II. quan tr ton kho.

La tnh lng ton kho toi u sao cho ph ton ton kho la nho nhat.

at hang bao nhieu vao thi iem quy nh?

Vao thi iem nao thi bat au at hang?

Loai hang ton kho nao c chu y?

Co the thay oi chi ph ton kho hay khong?

Ch ph ton kho = CP lu kho + CP at hang + CP khac

S: n v hang hoa ban nam, N: so lan ac hang nam => lng hang at mot lan la S/N, P: n gia hang lu kho, C: ty le chi ph lu kho

lng hang ton kho trung bnh = S/2N

gia tr ton kho trung bnh = S/2N = A

tong chi ph ton kho (TCC)= C*P*A

chi ph at hang: quan ly + giao dch + van chuyen, lng hang ln th chi ph thap.

F: chi ph co nh cho 1 lan at hang, N: so lan at hang trong nam, TOC: tong chi ph at hang => TOC = F*N N =S/2A => TOC = F*S/2A

Cac chi ph khac: X nao o

Tong chi ph ton kho TIC = TCC +TOC => min

Vi Q la lo hang mot lan at

Lay ao ham ta co Q* toi u la can hai cua = 2FS/C*P

Chng 4: gia tr tien te theo thi gian

4.1 gia tr tng lai cua tien te

1. Gia tr tng lai: (Fv) la gia tr cua tong von au t tang them theo lai thu nhap

2. lai (I): la tien phai tra khi vay von, hay tien thu t khoan au t.

I = S P (S: tong tich luy cuoi cung, P: von goc)

3. r : lai suat = const. Ch can ghi tren truc thi gian.

4. t= o: thi iem hien tai, t =1: cuoi thi oan 1 au cua thi oan

5. cach khac I = r*P (lai suat nhan tong von au t)

a. lai n: ch c tnh mot lan tren toan bo von goc ca thi ky

In = P*r*t lay ung la u ngay, gan ung la 365 hay 360.

b. lai kep: tien lai cac ky trc c cong vao von goc cho cac ky sau

Fv = Pv*(1+r)n Fv: gia tr tng lai tai nam n; Pv: gia tr hien tai cua tien te

c. Lai suat mc tang theo t le phan tram: cua tien te t von ban au. (r)

2. gia tr tng lai cua mot khoan tien te n:

Fvn = Pv(1+r)n = Pv[ IFA:r,n ] tra bang A

3. gia tr tng lai cua chuoi:

cac so hang trong chuoi khong bang nhau:

quy ve tng lai Fv = A0(1+r)n + A1(1+r)n-1 + A2(1+r)n-2 ++ An(1+r)0

cac so hang trong chuoi bang nhau

A: dong tien = const; Fv = [ (1+r)n 1 ]/r tm ra bang C (khi chuoi at au ky th tnh ra va bang khong ung)

Hien gia cua tien te: la gia tr tnh oi ve hien tai cua dong tien trong tng lai.

1. hien gia cua dong tien n:

Fvn = Pv (1+r)n => Pv = Fvn[1/(1+r)]n => =Fvn [ 1+r]-nDo o Pv = Fv[ IFB r;n] tra bang B

2. hien gia cua chuoi tien te:

a.so hang khac nhau:Pv = (nt=1[At/(1+r)n ] At :ngan lu tai nam t, r:lai suat chiec khau

b. so hang bang nhau: Pv = A[ IFD : r,n] bang D hay Pv = A[(1+r)n 1]/r(1+r)n

chu y: gia tr hien tai cua chuoi tien te se khac nhau khi at cuoi ky va au ky. Bang D ung khi at cuoi ky.

ng dung cua gia tr tng lai theo thi gian.

1/ ap dung Fv (lai suat kep tnh lai suat thc)

IDN:lai suat danh ngha(khi thi gian ghep lai khong trung vi thi gian phat bieu.) Ir: lai suat thc (khi thi gian ghep lai trung vi thi gian phat bieu)

Tnh lai suat thc theo cac thi gian khac nhau:

in (lai tai thi gian n) = (1+ i0)n 1 lai 12% tnh lai suat thc vao nam th 5

theo lai n = 12%*5 = 60%

theo lai kep = i5 = (1+12%)5 1

chuyen oi lai danh ngha sang lai thc:

ir(t) = [ 1+iDN/m]1*m . m: so lan ghep lai. hay (n*m)

2. ng dung cua Pv

a. ng dung trong thanh toan n: lap bang ke hoach trong thanh toan lai va goc

sttKhoan mua tnhNam 0Nam 1Nam 2Nam 3

1(1) so d n au kyKhong co1000

2(2) lai vay phai tra (hoi lai)

3(3) khoan thanh toan(*)

4(4) thanh toan n goc(3) (2)

5(5) so d n cuoi ky(1) (4)

(*) = Pv/[IFD : r,n] ; Pv = ( X/(1+KD)t (t chay t 1 n)

bang thanh toan

sttKhoan mua tnh

1(1)

2(2)

3(4)

4(3)

5(5)

Bai toan tra gop (xuoi, va ngc)

Xuoi: cho lai tra gop tnh khoan thanh toan nh ky

Ngc: cho khoan thanh toan nh ky tnh lai tra gop.

Mua may tnh 1200$ tra trc 200$, so con lai 1000 tra trong 12 thang, lai suat 2,5%/thang. So tien KH tra dnh ky la ? e cuoi nam het n?

1000 = X[ (1/(1+2,5%)t] = > X = 1000/(IFD: 2,5, 12%)

co the tra ngc bang D tm ra

Phan tch DUPPON

Chng 5 nh gia chng khoan (trai phieu va co phieu)

5.1 nh gia trai phieu

lai suat huy ong (Kd)= const; lai suat th trng Kdm (no thay oi va lam cho gia trai phieu bien ong. INT = M*Kd = const.

2.1 phng phap nh gia trai phieu: (thng lnh hai ky)1/6 va 1/12.

* trng hp thanh toan lai 1 lan nam: Vb = (INT/(1+Kdm)n + M/(1+Kdm)n ;Vb = INT[IFD Kdm,N]. gia trai phieu t le ngch vi th trng.

* trng hp thanh toan lai hai ky nam: Vb = INT/2[IFD Kdm/2 , 2N] ; Vb = (2n nh tren nhng chi INT/2, Mu 2n, Kdm/2.

* tnh lai suat ao han cua trai phieu: theo phng phap th va loai: Rb : la lai suat ao han cua Bond. So sanh Vb >. Kd >,< hay = Kdm

Rb = [INT + (M-Vb/n)]/(M+2Vb)/3 => Vb = Vb khongth lai.

nh gia trai phieu khi lai suat thay oi theo thi gian: tnh tng thi oan.

5.2 nh gia co phieu thng.

Po: th gia tai thi iem hien tai; Ks: suat sinh li cua von chu s hu; g: mc tang trng co tc (ky vong). D1/Po= ty suat co tc ky vong; (P1 Po)/Po = mc thang d von = g. D1: co tc thanh toan cho cac co ong thi gian t. Dt=Do(1+g)t ung khi g = sonst.D1 = Do(1+g) => D2 = D1(1+g)2.

2.1 nh gia vi cpt vinh vien: Po = D1/(Ks-g). khi g > Ks => g tang sieu ta tnh nh ssau:

Tien mat

Khoan phai thu

SP (kho)

NVL

Chnh sach

au t thoang hieu quan khong cao (lai ln)

Chnh sach

au t chat che, thieu von tra lai t

Chnh sach au t trung dung van dung 2 mo hnh tren, thieu vay ngan hang, d au t ngan han

Gioi han tren

chuan

Muc toi thieu

Lvay + KH + TTN + CPK

TK + KPThu + TM + KHAC

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