_______________________________________________________________________________________ 1 Bi 1 : TNG QUAN V KINH DOANH NGAI HI I. Kinh doanh ngai hi l g ? Th trng kinh doanh ngoi hi, cn c gi tt l FOREX "" hoc "Forex" hoc "bn l ngoi hi" hoc "FX" hoc "Spot FX" hoc ch "Spot( hp ng giao ngay )" l th trng ti chnh ln nht th gii, vi mt khilnghn4,000t$mtngy.Nubnsosnhvikhilng25t$/mtngymthtrng chng khan New York giao dch, th cc bn thc s thy l th trng kinh doanh ngai hi thc s rt ln. N thc s tng ng vi hn ba ln tng s tin ca cc c phiu v c hp ng tng lai ca th trng kt hp! 1. Th no l giao dch kinh doanh ngai hi ? Cu tr li n gin l tin. Kinh doanh ngoi hi l ng thi mua mt lai tin t v bn mt lai tin t khc. Tin t c giao dch thng qua mt nh mi gii hoc i l, v c giao dch theo cp, v d nh ng euro v la M (EUR / USD) hoc bng Anh v Yn Nht (GBP / JPY). Bi v bn khng mua bt c th g mang tnh vt l, loi hnh kinh doanh c th c gy nhm ln. Hy ngh v vic mua mt loi tin t nh mua mt c phn trong mt quc gia c th. Khi bn mua, ni, Yn Nht, bn angmua mt c phn trong nn kinh t Nht Bn, nh gi ca tin t l mt s phn nh trc tip ca nhng g th trng ngh v sc khe hin ti v tng lai ca nn kinh t Nht Bn. Nhn chung, t gi ca mt loai tin t so vi cc loai tin t khc l s phn nh nn kinh t ca mt quc gia so vi nn kinh t ca mt quc gia khc. Khng ging nh cc th trng ti chnh khc nh chng khon New York, th trng ngoi hi giao ngay khng c mt v tr a l v cng khng trao i mt trung tm. Th trng ngoi hi c xem l mt OTC ( Over The Counter )hoc th trng lin ngn hng , do thc t l ton b th trng l chy bng in t, trong mt mng li ca cc ngn hng, lin tc trong khong thi gian 24 gi. Cho n cui nhng nm 1990, ch c "g ln" c th chi tr chi ny.Forex ban u c s dng bi cc ch ngn hng v cc t chc ln. Tuy nhin, do s tri dy ca Internet, cc cng ty kinh doanh, mi giitrc tuyn Forex hin nay c th cung cp ti khon giao dch n l. Tt c bn cn bt u l mt my tnh, kt ni Internet tc cao, v1 ti khan giao dch. 2. Th trng giao ngay (spot market ) l g ? Th trng giao ngay l cc th trng c th giao dch ngay vi gi hin thi ca 1 cng c ti chnh hin thi. 3. Cc ng tin giao dch ? l cc ng tin ph bin nht di y : _______________________________________________________________________________________ 2 K hiu tin t lun lun c ba ch ci, m hai ch ci u tin xc nh tn ca t nc v k t th ba xc nh tn ca loi tin t ca nc . 4. Cc th trng giao dch tin t ?Cc th trng ti ch FX l duy nht trong th trng th gii. N ging nh mt Super Wal-Mart, ni th trng l m 24-gi mt ngy. Bt c lc no, u trn khp th gii mt trung tm ti chnh m ca cho kinh doanh, v cc ngn hng v t chc trao i cc loi tin t khc mi gi trong ngy v m vi khong cch nh thng ch vo cui tun. 5. Th trng ngoi hi (OTC): Th trng forexOTC l th trng ti chnh ln nht v ph bin nht trn th gii mi ni, giao dch trntoncubi mt slngln ca ccc nhnvt chc. thtrng OTC,ccnh utxc nh nhng i tc m h mun giao dchty thuc vo iu kin kinh doanh, sc hp dn ca gi c v uy tn ca cc i tc kinh doanh. Biu di y cho thy hot ng ton cu ngoi hi. ng la chim hu ht cc giao dch tin t, vi khi lng 86% ca tt c cc giao dch. ng euro lth hai vi 37%, trong khi ca ng yn l th ba vi16,5%. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 3 6. u im ca kinh doanh ngai hi?C rt nhiu li ch v li th kinh doanh ngoi hi. y ch l mt vi l do ti sao rt nhiu ngi ang la chn th trng ny:- Khng c l ph thanh ton b tr, khng c ph chuyn i, khng c ph ca chnh ph, khng c l ph mi gii.- Khng c khi lng c nh. Khng c bin . - Trong cc th trng tng lai, rt nhiu khi lng hoc hp ng c xc nh . bn c th tham gia giao dch vi ti khan thp nht l 200$. - Th trng hat ng 24h/1 ngy v 5 ngy/ 1 tun.- Khng ai c th tc ng ln th trng c.- Th trng ngoi hi rt ln v c rt nhiu ngi tham gia m khng c thc th duy nht (thm ch khng mt ngn hng trung ng) c th kim sot gi th trng. - C n by. Trong kinhdoanh ngoi hi, mt khon tin gi k qu nh c th kim sot mtgitr hp ng ln hn nhiu tng s. n by cho cc nh kinh doanh, kh nng lm cho li nhun tt p, v ng thi gi vn ri ro n mc ti thiu. V d, Forex mi gii cung cp 200 : 1 n by, c ngha l vi$ 50 tin gi k qu s cho php mt nh kinh doanhmua hoc bn 10.000 $ gi tr ca tin t. Tng t nh vy, vi $ 500 la, ngi ta c th mua bn vi $ 100,000 la v nh vy.-Tnh thanh khon cao.- C th m ti khan thc tp khng tn ph. - Ch cn 1 my tnh kt ni internet l bn c th giao dch c. II. LM TH NO KINH DOANH NGAI HI ? Cc i tng ca kinh doanh ngoi hi l trao i mt ng tin cho nhau trong nim k vng rng gi s thay i, do cc loi tin t bn mua s tng gi tr so vi mt trong nhng ng tin bn bn. V d v vic kim tin bng cch mua euro : ** 10.000 EUR x 1,18 = US $ 11,800** EUR 10.000 x 1,25 = US $ 12,500 1. T gi hi ai : T gi hi oi ch n gin l t l ca mt loi tin t c gi tr i vi loi tin t khc. V d, USD / CHF t gi cho thy c bao nhiu la M c th mua mt franc Thy S, hoc c bao nhiu franc Thy S bn cn phi mua 1 la M. n v tin t lun lun c trch dn trong cp, chng hn nh GBP / USD hoc USD / JPY.Bi v trong mi giao dch ngoi hi bn ang ng thi mua v bn mt loi tin t khc. Di y l mt v d v mt t l ngoi hi i vi cc bng Anh so vi ng la M: GBP / USD = 1,7500 Loi tintc lit ku tin bn tri ca du gch cho ("/") c gi l tin t c bn (trong v d ny, bng Anh), trong khi iu th hai bn phi c gi l tin truy cp (trong v d ny, ng la M).Khi mua, t gi s cho bn bit l bn phi tr bao nhiu tin truy cp mua mt n v tin t c bn. Trong v d trn, bn phi tr 1,7500 la M mua 1 bng Anh. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 4 Khi bn, t gi s cho bn bit c bao nhiu tin truy cpm bn nhn c khi bn mt n v tin t c bn. Trong v d trn, bn s nhn c 1,7500 la M khi bn bn 1 bng Anh. 2. Mua v Bn : Mua ( Long hoc Buy ) l mua ng tin c bn v bn ng tin truy cp. Bn ( Short hoc Sell ) l bn ng tin c bn v mua ng tin truy cp. 3. Bid / Askv Spread : Bid: l gi bn Ask : l gi mua vo Spread : l ph giao dch. Spread = Ask - Bid Trn bng gi GBP/ USD, gi Bid l 1,7445 v gi Ask l 1,7449. Nu bn mun bn GBP, bn nhp vo "Bn"vbnsbnti1,7445.NubnmunmuaGBP,bnbmvont"Buy"vbnsmuati 1,7449. 4. Mt s v d v kinh doanh ngai hi : Trong nhng v d di y, chng ta s s dng phn tch c bn gip quyt nh mua hoc bn mt cp tin t c th. EUR / USDTrong v d ny Euro l tin t c s cho vic mua / bn.Nu bn tin rng nn kinh t M stip tc suy yu, m c hi cho ng laM, bn s thc hin mt lnh MUA EUR / USD. Lm nh vy bn phi mua euro trong nim k vng rng h s tng ln so vi ng la M.Nu bn tin rng nn kinh t M l mnh m v ng euro s yu i so vi la M bn s thc hin mt lnh SELL EUR / USD. Nh vy l bn bn Euro trong k vng l s gim gi so vi ng la M. USD / JPYTrong v d ny ng la M l tin t c s cho vic mua / bn.Nu bn ngh rng chnh ph Nht Bn s lm suy yu Yn gip ngnh cng nghip xut khu ca mnh, bn s thc hin mt MUA USD / JPY . Lm nh vy bn phi mua la M trong nim k vng rng h s tng ln so vi ng yn Nht Bn.Nu bn tin rng cc nh u t Nht Bn ang ko tin ra khi th trng ti chnh M v chuyn i tt c cc la M ca h tr li Yn, v iu ny s lm tn thng ng la M, bn s thc hin mt BN USD / JPY. Lm nh vy l bn phi bn la M trong nim k vng rng h s mt gi so vi ng yn Nht Bn. 5. Mt s khi nim c bn : - Margin : l s tin k qu thc hin giao dch khi lng ln. - Margin Call : l khi s tin k qu ca bn ht khi giao dch thua l, cc nh mi gii s t ng thanh khan cc lnh ang giao dch ca bn. - n vj tnh khi lng giao dch l Lot. 1 Lot = 100,000 la M. - n by ( Leverage ) :nu leverage 100 : 1 l khi bn giao dch mua bn 100,000 la M th bn ch cn s tin k qu l 1,000 la M. - Pips (Price Interest Points): 1 pip l ch s thp phn cui cng trong 1 t gi trao i , v cng l cm t c s dng nhiu nht nh gi s chuyn i v gi ca 1 ngoi t. Nu t gi trao i ca Bng Anh , so vi Canada, theo VD trn, t 2.2135 ti 2.2185, th iu c ngha l cp ny tng ln 50 pips. S ppmtgitraoidchchuyn,lnhayxung,quytnhvicbn,1trader,slihaylbaonhiu trong 1 giao dch.Khi M l cross currency trong 1 cp tin t. VD : GBP/USD gi tr ca pip c c nh l 10$ mi 100,000 $. Tuy nhin v mi loi tin t c gi tr khc nhau nn gi tr ca 1 pip trong 1 cp tin cng s khc nhau. - Li sut qua m ( Swap ) : l li sut ngn hng cho bn vay phn cn li tr i s tin m bn k qu. V li sut ny khng ng k. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 5 Bi 2 : CC PHNG PHP GIAO DCH V CC KIU BIU I. TYPES OF TRADING Trn th trng ti chnh, th trng hi oi l th trng c tnh thanh khon cao nht v doanh s giao dchlnnht,vtxadoanhsgiaodchcathtrngcphiuvtriphiu. Th trng hi oi l ni m ng tin quc gia ny c th i ly mt ng tin quc gia khc. Hin nay, doanh s mua bn ngoi t bnh qun mt ngy trn th trng hi oi quc t ln ti trn 3.200 t USD. i tng tham gia th trng cng rt a dng: Ngn hng Trung ng, Ngn hng thng mi, cc cng ty xut nhp khu, u t nc ngoi, dch v quc t, khch du lchc bit l c s tham gia thng xuyn ca cc nh mi gii, nh kinh doanh tin t. Vn quan trng l chng ta s bn hoc mua ngoi t no c th mang li hiu qu cao nht? T gi hi oi l gi c ca mt n v tin t nc ny c o lng bng mt s lng n v tin t nc khc. T gi l loi gi c rt phc tp vi nhng bin ng rt mnh v nhanh, bui sng c th l 85 JPY/USD, chiu c th l 88 JPY/USD. T gi rt nhy cm vi nhng yu t v kinh t - chnh tr - x hi - chin tranh - thin tai v c yu t tm l. Trnthtrngtichnhnichungvthtrnghioiniringccchuyngiathngdng2cch phn tch sau y d bo gi: phn tch k thut (Technical analysis) v phn tch c bn (Fundamental analysis). 1. Phn tch c bn (Fundamental analysis) L phng php phn tch tp trung vo vic nghin cu cc l do hoc nguyn nhn lm cho gi tng ln hoc gim xung. N ch n cc lc lng tc ng n cung cu tin t trn th trng: li sut, lm pht, tng trng kinh t, xut nhp khu, u t tng ca phng php ny l tin n mt gi tr d on v gi tr sinh li tim n ca mt th trng xc nh xem th trng c nh gi cao hn hoc thp hn gi tr thc. Phn kh nht ca phng php ny l quyt nh xem thng tin no v bao nhiu tin c tnh vo c cu gi hin hnh. Cc l thuyt chnh ca phn tch c bn l : L thuyt ng gi sc mua (PPP), l thuyt ngang gi li sut (IRP), m hnh cn cn thanh ton quc t, m hnh th trng vn, _______________________________________________________________________________________ 6 2. Phn tch k thut ( Technical analysis ) n gin l mt phng php d bo da vo nghin cu v qu kh, tm l v quy lut xc sut. N tt nhin khng phi l khng tht bi nhng n l mt k thut kinh doanh rt ng nghin cu. Phn tch k thut ch yu l da vo th t gi v s lng mua bn ca qu kh c tp hp li d on khuynh hng ca t gi trong tng lai. Phn tch k thut c tnh linh hot, d s dng v nhanh chng, nhng nh kinh doanh ngn hn, trung hn, di hn c t do chn la. iu lu l phn tch k thut c th l cng c gip ta d bo xu hng ng, nhng n phi c s dng theo nguyn tc c tnh ton ch khng phi theo cm tnh. Thi gian lp biu phn tch l do mi nh kinh doanh la chn c th s dng phn tch k thut trong ngy ( cc dng 5 pht, 15 pht, 30 pht hay mi gi), trong tun hoc trong thng. Cc l thuyt chnh ca phn tch k thut l: l thuyt Dow, l thuyt Fibonacci, l thuyt Elliott WaveTrong phn tch k thut c cc gi nh: th trng phn ng trc mi s kin xy ra, gi c bin ng theo mt khuynh hng nht nh, s bin ng gi c thng lp li theo chu k v c s lp li ca gi c trong qu kh vo tng lai (history repeats itself). Nh vy mi loi hnh phn tch c nhng im mnh v im yu ring. V vy nh kinh doanh trong hot ng kinh doanh phi bit linh hot s dng cc cng c ny cng vi quyt nh trc quan ca mnh ra quyt nh nhanh chng v chnh xc. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 7 II. TYPES OF CHART 1. Line Charts (Biu ng k n) Mt biu ng k n ni t mt im gi ng ca (closing price) ti mt im l gi ng ca k tip. Khi kt hp thnh mt ng k n, chng ta c th nhn thy qu trnh bin i gi tng qut theo thi gian ca mt cp tin t. V d biu ng k ca EURUSD : Dng biu ny c s dng t rt lu. N c s dng trn tt c cc th trng chng khon, tin t khp th gii t trc ti nay bi tnh n gin. Tuy nhin hin nay do khoa hc k thut pht trin, din bin ca th trng ngy cng phc tp cho nn loi biu ny ngy cng t c s dng, nht l trn cc th trng chng khon hin i v y thng c din bin kh phc tp, mc dao ng trong thi gian ngn vi lch kh cao, nu dng loi biu ny phn tch th thng mang li hiu qu thp trong phn tch. 2. Bar Charts (Biu thanh) Biu thanh hin th cc gi m ca (Open price), ng ca (close price), cng nh gi cao (high price) v gi thp (low price). Gc ca thanh ng ch gi trao i thp nht ti thi im , trong khi ngn ca thanh ch gi cao nht c tr. V vy, thanh ng ch khong gi trao i ca cp tin. Nhnh ngang bn tri thanh ng l gi m, v nhnh ngang bn phi l gi ng. Biu thanh cng c gi l biu OHLC (Open, High, Low, Close) bi v n ch ra gi m ca, gi cao, gi thp v gi ng ca. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 8 Open:Gi m ca l ng ngang nh bn tri High:Gi cao l nh ca ng ng xc nh gi cao nht trong khong thi gian. Low:Gi thp l y ca ng ng xc nh gi thp nht trong khong thi gian. Close: Gi ng l ng ngang nh bn phi Di y l mt v d ca biu thanh ca cp EUR/USD: Ghi ch: mt thanh l mt khong thi gian c th l: 1 pht, 1 gi,1 ngy, hoc 1 tun. - u im: Loi biu ny phn nh kh trung thc v y bin ng gi ca th trng. Loi biu nythngcpdngphntchtrnccThtrngchngkhonhinikhplnhtheohnh thc khp lnh lin tc, dao ng ca gi chng khon trong mt phin giao dch l tng i ln. - Nhc im: Biu dng thanh thng kh s dng, kh nhn c bit l vi ngi mi tip xc phn tch k thut. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 9 3. Candlestick Charts (Biu nn) Biu nn hin th cng thngtin nh mt biu thanh, nhng theo mt nh dng ha p hn. Cc thanh nn ch khong gi cao n gi thp bng mt ng ng. Tuy nhin, trong biu nn, mt hnh ch nht gia ( gi l thn nn) ch khong cch gia gi m cav gi ng ca. Theoquy c, nu thn nn c lm y hoc c mu th gi ng ca thp hn gi m ca. Trong v d bn di, mu en l c lm y. i vi nn en, nh ca nn l gi m ca v y l gi ng ca. Nu gi ng ca cao hn gi m ca th nn s trng hoc khng mu. Chng ta khng mun s dng cc nn trng v en. Chng ta cm thy d nhn hn vi th mu. Chng ta thay th mu xanh cho trng v mu cho en. C ngha l nu gi ng ca cao hn gi m ca thmu xanh. Nu gi ng thp hngim th mu . Trong cc phn sau bn sthy cch s dng nn xanh v s cho php bn nhn biu nhanh hn, nh nhn thu xu hng ln hoc xung v cc im c kh nng o hng. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 10 Mcch cathnnhontonlphcv chovicquan st,bi vccthngtinhinthgingnh biu thanh OHLC. u im ca biu nn l : Cc nn d hiu v thun tin i vi ngi mi bt u tnh ton phn tch th. Cc nn d s dng. Mt ca bn s thch ng nhanh chng vi cc thng tin trong k hiu thanh. Cc nn v cc mu nn c tn d nh chng hn nh sao bng (shooting star) Ccnnththuntinchovicxcnh ccim iu chnh cathtrng ccohngt mt xu hng tng thnh mt xu hng gim hoc ngc li. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 11 Biu ny c coi l la chn ti u cho hu ht cc forex traders. Candlestick chart cho bitnhng thng tin nh bar chart nhng d liu c th hin d nhn v r rng hn. Candlestick cng c lin tng nh cy nn vi 2 u l 2 bc (thng chy khi t nn ). Thng nu gi ng nh hn gi m th cy nn s mu ti gi gim (a bearish candle). V ngc li nu gi ng ln hn gi m th cy nn mu sng gi tng (a bullishcandle). Hai bc nn th hin bin tng cao nht v thp nht ca gi. Chcnmtcinhnquacandlestickcngchotraderbitnhngthngtinmhcnvbinnggi trong mt khong thi gian no nh u l mc gi cao nht, thp nht, gi ang tng hay gim, u l mc gi m v ng. Cng nh vy, mt trader c th nhn r xem gi tng/gim lin tc trong bao lu, kt hp vi cc phn tch k thut khc c th tm im giao dch. By gi bn bit ti sao cc nn rt hay v chng ta s s dng biu nn cho hu ht cc v d v sau. Tm tt : C 03 loi biu : oBiu ng n. oBiu thanh. oBiu nn. T by gi chng ta s s dng biu nn. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 12 Bi 3 : GIAO DCH VI BIU NN NHT Chng ta cp vn tt v biu nn nht trong bi trc, by gi chng ta s i su hnv bn lun thm v biu nn nht. Trc ht hy n li. I. NN NHT L G?(CANDLESTICK) Cch y hn 200 nm, ngi Nht s dng kiu phn tch k thut ca h trong th trng go. Kiu phn tch ny phttrin thnh k thut CandleStick hin c sdng rng ri trn th gii. Biu candle l mt cng c c lp hu ch. Biu candle c th c kt hp vi cc cng c k thut khc to ra mt k thut khc. S phi hp cc candle c th a ra mt chu k thng nht. Ngoi ra, cc candle c th ch ra mt bin ng gi. Cc candle c hnh thnh bng cch s dng gi m, gi cao, gi thp v gi ng.Nu gi ng trn gi m ta c mt candle trng.Nu gi ng di gi m ta c mt candle en.Phn ch nht trng hoc en ca candle c gi l thn. Cc ng bn trn v bn di thn i din cho khong gi cao/gi thp v c gi l bng. Gi cao c nh du bi nh ca bng trn v gi thp l y bng di: iu ny cung cp cho bn thng tin quan trng v ng thi ca gi v to thnh bn cht ca Candle. 1. Thn di i lp vi thn ngn Thn di hn ch p lc mua hoc bn mnh hn. Ngc li cc gi ngn hn ch s bin ng gi t hn v m t mt s do d gia tng gi (u c, bulls) v gim gi (bn tho, bears). Bull l ngi mua, bear l ngi bn. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 13 Cc candle trng di hin th p lc mua mnh. Candle trng di hn, hn na gi ng ca bn trn gi m.iu ny ch ra rng gi tng ng k t gi m n gi ng ca v ngi mua nhiu hn. Ni cch khc, ngi mua ang chng li ngi bn. Candle en di ch p lc bn mnh. Candle en di hn, hn na gi ng bn di gi m. iu ny chrnggigimnhiutgimvngibnnhiuhn.Nicchkhc,ngibnangginhgit ngi mua. 2.Bng di i lp vi bng ngn Bng trn v bngdica candle c th cung cp thng tin gitr v phin giao dch. Bng trn mt phin giao dch cao v bng di l phin giao dch thp. Candle vi bng ngn ch rng phn ln hot ng giao dch c gii hn gn gi m v gi ng. Candle vi bng di ch rng hot ng giao dch c m rng so vi gi m v gi ng. Candle vi bng trn di v bng di ngn ch rng ngi mua chim u th trong k giao dch v gi t mua cao hn. Tuy nhin, ngi bn sau y gi xung khi mc cao v gi ng yu to ra bng trn di. Trongtrnghpkhc,candlevibngdidivbngtrnngnchrngngibnchimuth trong phin giao dch v khin cho gi thp hn. Tuy nhin, ngi mua sau t li gi mua cao hn vo cui k giao dch v gi ng cao (mnh) to ra bng thp di. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 14 II. CC MU C BN 1.Marubozu Marubozu ngha l khng c bng trn thn. Gi thp v gi cao c m t bi gi m v gi ng Mt Marubozu trng l mt thn trng di khng c bng ch xu hng u c (tng gi). N hnh thnh khi gi m bng gi thp v gi ng bng gi cao. iu ny ch ra rng ngi mua iu khin hot ng gi t giao dch u tin n giao dch cui cng. N thng tr thnh phn u tin ca mt thi k tng gi ko di hoc mt mu chuyn sang hng tng gi. MtMarubozu en l mt thn en di khng bng. N hnh thnh khi gi m bng gi cao v gi ng bng gi thp. iu ny ch rng ngi bn iu khin hot ng gi t phin giao dch u n cui. N thng a n thi k gim gi ko di hoc i sang hng gim gi. 2. Spinning Tops Candle vi mt bng trn di, bng di di v thn nh c gi l nh xoay. Mu ca thn khng quan trng lm. Mu ny ch s ging co gia xu hng tng gi v gim gi. Mt thn nh ch s bin ng nh gia gi m v gi ng, v bng ch rng c ngi mua v ngi bn tchcchotngtrongsutphingiaodch.Mcdphingiaodchmvngvimtchttbin ng, gi bin i ngk cao hnv thp hn trong k giao dch. C ngibn cng nhngi mua khng th ginh c quyn kim sot cao hn v kt qu l tm ngng (gii lao, standoff). _______________________________________________________________________________________ 15 Saumtcandletrngdihocmtgiaiontnggidi(tngtrng),mtspinningtopchsyui gia ngi mua v mt thay i tim nng hoc s gin on trong xu hng. Sau mt candle en di hoc mt giai on suy gim di, mt nh xoay ch s yu i gia ngi bn v mt thay i tim nng hoc s gin on trong xu hng. 3.Doji ng Doji l mu vi cng gi m v gi ng. Theo l tng, gi m v gi ng nn bng nhau. Mt doji vi gi m v gi ng bng nhau s c u tin, iu ny quan trng nm c bn cht ca candle.Doji truyn t mt kh nng ca s ging co hoc cuc tranh ua gia ngi bn v ngi mua. Gi bin itrnvdigimtrongsutkgiaodch,nhngngtihocgngim.Ktqulstm ngng. C ngi bn v mua u khng th ginh quyn kim sot v im chuyn i c th pht sinh. Vic xc nh tm quan trng ca Doji s ph thuc vo gi, bin i gn , v cc candle trc . Lin quan n candle trc , doji c mt thn rt ngn xut hin nh mt ng mng. Mt doji hnh thnh gia cc candle khc vi thn nh (nh nh xoay) s khng c coi l quan trng. Tuy nhin, mt doji hnh thnh gia cc candle vi thn di s c cho rng c ngha. C 04 kiu doji c bit. Chiu di ca bng trn v di c th bin i v candle trng nh thnh gi, thnh gi o ngc hoc du tr. T doji m ch c dng s t hoc s nhiu. 4.Doji v xu hng S lin quan ca mt doji da trn xu hng trc hoc cc Candle trc . Sau mt t tng gi, hoc mt Candle trng di, mt doji bo hiu rng p lc mua bt u yu. Sau mt t gim gi hoc mt Candle en di, mt doji bo hiu rng p lc bn bt u h bt. Doji ch rng cn cn cung v cu ang tr nn cn bng v mt bin i xu hng sp din ra. Ch ring Doji th khng chng t mt s o chiu v cn phi c thm cc thng tin khc. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 16 Sau mt t tng gi, hoc mt candle trng di, mt mt doji bo hiu rng p lc mua bt u yu v xu hng ln c th sp sa kt thc. Gi gim thng l t mt v trkhng c ngi mua, s duy tr p lc muacnthitgivngxuhngln.Do,mtdojicthcnghahnsau mtxuhngln hoc mt candle trng di. K c sau khi mt doji hnh thnh, hng xung tip sau cn thit cho vic xc nhn gim gi. Sau mt t gim gi hoc mt candle en di, mt doji ch rng p lc bn c th gim bt v xu hng xung c th sp chm dt. Mc d ngi mua ang bt u mt quyn kim sot gi gim, cn c thm mua mnh xc nh mt o hng. III. CC MU O HNG. 1. Xu hng trc i vi mt mu iu kin coi nh mt mu o hng, cn c mt xu hng trc o hng. o hng tng gi cn mt hng xung trc v o hng gim gi cn mt hng ln trc . 2.o hng bng di (Long Shadow) C hai cp mu o hng candle n hnh thnh bi mt thn nh, mt bng di v mt bng ngn hoc khng c. Bng di cn di t nht bng hai ln thn, thn c th l trng hoc en. V tr ca bng di v ng thi gi trc quyt nh s phn loi. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 17 Cp u tin, ci ba (hammer) v ngi b treo (hanging man), vi mt thn nh v bng di bn di. Cp th hai, sao bng (shooting star) v ba ngc (inverted hammer), vi mt thn nh v bng trn di. ng thi gi trc v thng tin thm na quyt nh bn cht tng gi hoc gim gi ca candle. Ci ba v ba ngc hnh thnh sau mt gim gi v l mu o hng tng gi, trong khi mt sao bng v ngi b treo hnh thnh sau mt tng gi v l mu o hng gim gi. 3.Hammer and Hanging Man (Ci ba v ngi b treo) Chic ba v ngi b treo hon ton ging nhau, nhng c khc nhau da vo ng thi gi trc . C hai c thn nh (en hoc trng), bng di di v bng trn ngn hoc khng c. Nh vi hu ht vic hnh thnh candle n hoc i, chic ba v ngi b treo cn xc nh ng thi trc . _______________________________________________________________________________________ 18 Chic ba l mt mu o chiu tng gi m n hnh thnh trong mt xu hng i xung. N c gi nh vy v th trng ang b p xung y. Sau mt t gimgi, chic ba bo hiu mt s hi phc tng gi. Mc thp ca bng di di hm rng ngi bn iu khin gi thp hn trong phin giao dch. Tuynhin,phncuimnhch rngngi muaginhlivtrcahticuiphingiaodch.Trong khi iuny dng nh tc ng, chic ba cn thm s xc nh tng gi.Mc thp ca chic ba ch rng hin cn nhiu ngi bn. C thm p lc mua th cn thit trc khi hnh ng. S xc nh iu ny l mt candle trng di. Tiu chun nhn bit : Bng di khong hai hoc 3 ln thn. Bng trn nh hoc khng c. Thn v tr trn ca cuimt k giao dch Mu ca thn khng quan trng. Ngi b treo l mt mu o hng gim gi m cng c th nh du mt nh hoc mc khng c. To thnh sau mt t tng gi, mt ngi b treo bo hiu rng p lc bn bt u tng. Mc thp ca bng di di xc nhn rng ngi bn y gi xung trong phin giao dch. Mc d ngi mua ginh li v tr (s cn bng) v iu khin gi cao hn vo lc cui, s xut hin p lc bn l cn thit cho vic o hng. Nh vi chic ba, mt ngi b treo cn s xc nhn gim gi trc khi hnh ng. S xc nh chnh l mt candle en di. Tiu chun nhn bit : Mt bng di di khong 2 hoc 3 ln thn. Bng trn nh hoc khng c Thn ti v tr trn ca cui k giao dch Mu ca thn khng quan trng, d vy mt thn en th gi gim hn mt thn trng. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 19 4.Inverted Hammer and Shooting Star (Ba ngc v sao bng) Mtbangcvsaobnggingnhnhau,nhngckhcnhaudavobnangtrongxuhng xung hay xu hng ln. Candle c thn nh (trng hoc en), bng trn di v bng di khng c hoc ngn. Cc candle ny chng t tim nng o hng, nhng cn s xc nh trc khi giao dch. Sao bng l mt o chiu gim gi, N xy ra trong mt xu hng ln, n ch rng gi m ti mc thp ca n, cng cli v y li xungy.Mt sao bng c th chng t mt tim nng ohnghoc mc khng c. Kt qu candle c mt bng trn di v thn en hoc trng nh. Sau mt t tng gi ln (bngtrn),khnngcangibnygixungxuthin.biuthmtohngngk, bng trn cn di v t nht bng 2 ln thn. S xc nh gim gi cn thit sau mt sao bng v c th xc nh nh s hnh thnh mt candle en di. Mt ba ngc hon ton ging mt sao bng, nhng xy ra sau mt xu hng xung. Ba ngc ch kh nng ca o hng ca hng xung. Sau mt t gim gi, bng trn di ch p lc mua v gi ng ti mc cao to ra bng trn di. Bi v s tht bi ny, s xc nh tng gi cn thit trc khi giao dch. Mt ba ngc theo sau l mt candle trng di c th thc hin vai tr s xc nh tng gi. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 20 5. Candle kt hp MhnhCandlesctothnhtnhiucandlelintc,vcthgpchungthnh1 candlelnhn. Candle gp s th hin mt cch n gin hn so vi m hnh Cadles, da trn nguyn tc: -Gi Open l gi ca candle u. -Gi Close l gi candle cui. -Gi High v gi Low l gi cao nht v thp nht ca m hnh. V d: S kt hp ca 2 candle 30M thnh 1 candle 1H: _______________________________________________________________________________________ 21 IV. CC M HNH NN C BN 1. Abandoned Baby:Mt mu o chiu c c im l mt khong trng tip theo sau l mt Doji, vo theo saunalmtkhongtrngvichiungcli.BngcaDojiphihontonbn di khong trng hoc bn trn bng ca candle th nht v th ba. 2. Dark Cloud Cover:Mt mu o chiu gim gi sau mt xu hng ln vi mt thn trng di. Gi m ca candle k tip gn bng gi cao ca candle ny v sau ng bn di im gia ca thn candle u. 3. Doji:Doji to thnh khi gi m v gi ng hu nh bng nhau. di ca bng trn v bng dicthkhcnhau,vktqucandlegingnhthnhgi,thnhgingchoc dutr.Doji mang nghasdodhoc sdnco mnhgiangi muavngi bn. Gi thay i trn v di gi m trong sut phin giao dch nhng ng ti gi m (hoc gn gi m). 4. Downside Tasuki Gap:Mtmutiptcxuhngvimtthnenditheosaulmtthnenvimt khong trng bn di candle u. Candle th ba l candle trng v gi m nm trong khong thn ca candle th hai, sau ng trong vng khong trng gia candle u v candle th hai, nhng khng ht khong trng. 5. Dragonfly Doji:MtDojicgimvgingngaytigicao.GingnhccDojikhc,Dojiny thng xut hin ti cc im th trng o chiu. 6. Engulfing Pattern:Mt mu o chiu, c th l gim gi hoc tng gi, ty thuc vo n xut hin ti cui xuhngln(ochiugimgi)hocxuhngxung(o chiutnggi).Candle u c c im l thn nh, theo sau l mt candle c thn hon ton bao trn thn ca candle u. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 22 7. Evening Doji Star:Mt mu o chiu gim gi gm 03 candle tng t mu Evening Star. Xu hng ln tip tc vi mt thn trng di. Candle k tip m cao hn, giao dch trong mt phm vi nh v sau ng ti gi m (Doji). Candle th ba ng bn di im gia ca thn candle u tin. 8. Evening Star:Mt mu o chiu gim gi tip theo ca mt xu hng ln vi mt thn trng di theo saulmtkhongtrngvmtcandlecthnnh,candlethbangbndi im gia ca thn candle u tin. 9. Falling Three Methods:Mt mu tip tc xu hng gim gi. Mt thn en di theo sau l 03 candle c thn nhvcccandlenyhontonnmtrongvngcagicaovgithpcacandle u. Candle th nm ng ti mt gi thp mi. 10. Gravestone Doji:MtDojicgimvgingngaytigithp.GingnhccDojikhc,Dojiny thng xut hin ti cc im th trng o chiu. 11. Hammer:Cc mu hammer to thnh khi gi thay i xung thp hn ng k sau khi m, nhng sau ng cch xa gi thp. K qu l mu candle ging nh cy ko vung vi cy que di. Nu mu candle ny hnh thnh trong t gi tng th n c gi l Hanging Man. 12. Hanging Man:Cc mu hammer to thnh khi gi thay i xung thp hn ng k sau khi m, nhng sau ng cch xa gi thp. K qu l mu candle ging nh cy ko vung vi cy que di. Nu mu candle ny hnh thnh trong t gi gim th n c gi l Hammer. 13. Harami:Mt mu 02 candle c mt thn nh hon ton nm trong vng ca thn candle u tin v khc mu. y l mt mu o chiu. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 23 14. Harami Cross:Mt mu 02 candle tng t mu Harami. Khc bit l candle th 2 l mt Doji. 15. Inverted Hammer:Mt mu o chiu tng gi. Trong mt xu hng xung, gi m thp hn v sau gi giao dch cao hn nhng ng gn bng gi m do trng ging nh mt cy ko ngc. 16. Long Candle:Mt candle c thn di th hin gi bin ng nhiu. 17. Long-Legged Doji:Mu candle ny c bng trn v di di vi Doji nm gia, mu ny th hin r s do d ca trader. 18. Long Shadows:Mu candle vi bng trn di v bng di ngn cho bit rng ngi mua ch ng sut phin giao dch v a ra gi cao hn. Ngc li, mu candle vi bng di di v bng trnngnchobitrngngibnchngsutphingiaodchviukhingi thp hn. 19. Marubozo:Mt mu candle khng c bng. 20. Morning Doji Star:Mt mu o chiu tng gi 03 candle tng t nh mu Morning Star. Candle u tin nmtrongmtxuhngxungcthnendi.Candlektipmthphnvimt Doji c vng giao dch nh. Candle cui ng bn trn im gia ca candle u. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 24 21. Morning Star:Mtmuochiutnggi03candlebaogmmtcandleendi trongxuhng xung,candlethhaingnnmbndimtkhongtrng,v mtcandlethbac thn trng ding bn trn im gia ca thn candle u. 22. Piercing Line:Mt mu o chiu tng gi 02 candle. Candle u trong mt xu hng gim gi c thn en di. Candle k tip m ti mt gi thp mi v sau ng bn trn im gia ca thn candle u. 23. Rising Three Methods:Mt mutiptctnggivi mtthntrngditheosaul03 candle cthnnhv unmtrongvnggicaovgithpcacandleu.Candlethnmngtigi cao mi. 24. Shooting Star:Mu 01 candle c th xut hin trong mt xu hng ln. Gi m cao hn, gi giao dch caohnnhiuvsaunggnbnggim.NcvgngingmuInverted Hammer ch khc y l mu o chiu gim gi. 25. Short Candle:Mt candle c thn ngn th hin gi bin ng t. 26. Spinning Top:Mucandlecthnnhvibngtrnvbngdidihnthn.Spinningtopsbo hiu s do d. 27. Stick Sandwich:Mt mu o chiu tng gi vi 02 thn en bao quanh mt thn trng. Gi ng ca 02 thn en phi bng nhau. Mt mc h tr r rng v y l mt c hi gi o chiu kh tt. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 25 28. Three Black Crows:Mt mu o chiu gim gi gm 03 thn en lin tip v mi candle ng di gi thp ca candle trc v m trong khong thn ca candle trc . 29. Three White Soldiers:Mt mu o chiu tng gi gm 03 thn trng lin tip c gi ng cao hn. Mi canlde m trong vng thn ca candle trc v ng gn gi cao ca chnh n. 30. Upside Gap Two Crows:Mt mugimgi03candlevchxyratrong mtxuhngln.Candleul mt thn trng di theo sau l mt khong trng c to bi mt candle c thn en nh bn trn candle utin.Candle th 3 cng l mt candle en c thn ln hn candle th 2 v bao ph candle th hai. Gi ng ca candle cui vn bn trn candle u. 31. Upside Tasuki Gap:Mt mu tip tc xu hng vi mt thn trng di theo sau l mt candle c thn trng v to khong trng bn trn candle u. Candle th ba en v m trong vng thn ca candle th hai sau ng trong vng trng gia candle u v candle th hai, nhng khng ht vng trng. 32. Engulfing Bearish: MtmhnhEngulfing(trongthtrngxuhnggim)btunhhnhtrongxu hng tng khi lng ngi bn ng hn ngi mua; hnh ng ny c phn nh bng mt Candle di mu ko di xung su hn Candle nh mu xanh l cy. Bn cththygimcacaohnngyhmtrc,v,trongphingiaodch,cphiu cbnravikhilnglnhnnhiusovingygiaodchtrc.Nhnggi ng ca li rt thp so vi gi ngy hm trc. 33. Engulfing bullish: MhnhEngulfingbnthtrngbullishlsilpvimhnhtrongthtrng bearish, n xy ra khi ngi mua vt qua ngi bn. N c phn nh trong biu bng mt candle di mu xanh l cy ko di ra cao hn Candle nh mu trc . _______________________________________________________________________________________ 26 34. Evening Star bearish: MhnhEveningstar(trongthtrngxuhnggim)lmtmhnhochiutrn nh.Nrtdxcnhbivcandlecuitrong mhnhcgi m cathphngi ngy hm trc ca candle nh. Candle di ny c th c mu hay mu xanh l cy, v gi ng ca ca n ko xung su gn ht thn ca cy nn xy ra hai ngy trc . M hnh ny cho thy cc nh u t c l mt i s t tin trong cc quyt nh ca mnh v trong vic nh gi xu hng sp ti. Qu trnh suy ngh ny s c xc nhn nu ngy hm sau l mt ngy giao dch i xung. 35. Harami bearish: Mt m hnh Harami (hng gim) l mt m hnh candle rt d nhn bit bng du hiu mt candle nh nm gn trong candle ln ca ngy giao dch hm trc. Cc nh u t trng phi PTKT s quan st k biu khi thy du hin ny. V Harami hng gim ch ra rng xu hng tng hin nay c th sp chm dt, c bit nu khi lng giao dch rt t. Nhng ngi nghin cu cc biu candle cng s nhn ra nhng m hnh Harami nh m hnh hai ngy u tin ca mu ba m hnh. 36. Harami Bullish: Harami (bullish) ch l nh phn chiu ca Harami (bearish). Nh bn thy trong biu trn, xu hng hin ti ca th trng l xu hng gim v cht bng mtthn candle nh mu xanh l cy nm gn trong thn Candle ln mu ca ngy hm trc. Nu c mt candle c gi ng ca cao hn vo ngy hm sau, th chnh l xc nhn xu hng o chiu s din ra trong thi gian ti. 37. Harami Cross Bearish: Harami cross l m hnh ca Harami nhng cht bng mt Candle Doji nh ch khng phi l mt thn candle nh cc du hiu trong nhng ngy trc . Hnh doji ny nm trong thn candle ca ngy giao dch hm trc. Ging nh cc Harami, xu hng hin ticxcnhtlcbtungygiaodch,nhngsauthtrngongc ngay trong ngy. Khi lng giao dch t n mc gn nh l khng c v gi ng ca bng gi m ca. Xu hng tng b o ngc. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 27 38. Harami Cross bullish: Cho d phin bn bullish hoc bearish th Harami cross u bt u m hnh ging nh kiu Harami c bn. Harami cross trong th trng xu hng tng (bullish) chnh l mu hnh i lp vi Harami cross hng gim (bearish) v khng cn gii thch thm th bn cng thy xu hng b o ngc. Kt lun Nu bn mun s dng biu candle cm nhn c xu hng giao dch ang i v u, th bn nn hc cch c cc biu c o ny. hnh tip din s gip bn c ci nhn ton cnh v xu hng sp ti, v nm bt c hi ngay khi c du hiu ph hp. Note: Th trng xu hng tng (bullish) hoc th trng xu hng gim (bearish). V.CC M HNH NN O CHIU. Cc duhiu o chiu xu hng thng xy ra trong mt xu hng tng (hoc gim) thng thng cho ta thy gi chm mc resistance (hoc support). Cc du hiu ny ng vai tr bo hiu quan trng, v trader c th da vo n dng km vi cc ch s indicater thch hp t lnh ra/vo th trng. 1.Du hiu xu hng o chiu tng gi (Bullish Reversal) Bullish Engulfing _______________________________________________________________________________________ 28 1.2.Piercing Pattern 1.3.Bullish Harami 1.4.Hammer _______________________________________________________________________________________ 29 1.5. Morning Doji Star 2.Du hiu xu hng o chiu gim gi (Bearish Reversal) 2.1.Bearish Engulfing 2.2.Dark Cloud Cover _______________________________________________________________________________________ 30 2.3.Shooting Star 2.4. Bearish Harami 2.5. Evening Star _______________________________________________________________________________________ 31 Bi 4: H TR V KHNG C, CC NG XU HNG, CC KNH I. H TR V KHNG C (SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE) Htrvkhngclmttrongphnlncckhinimcsdngrngritrongkinhdoanh.Mi ngi c ngh da vo u o lng s h tr v khng c. Hy nhn qua hnh c bn u tin Nhn vo lu trn, bn c th thy, mu ch chi ny ang i ln (th trng tng gi). Khi th trng i ln v sau ko tr li, n t n nh cao nht trc khi b ko xung v ta c s khng c. Khi th trng tip tc ln ln na, n t n im thp nht trc khi bt u tr li khi ny ta c s h tr. Bng cch ny s khng c v h tr c hnh thnh lin tc nh khi th trng dao ng theo thi gian. Tri vi trng hp ny ta c xu hng xung. Support v resistance i din quan trng cho mi quan h gia cung v cu. Cung tng ng ngha vi xu hng gim, k vng gi gim v vic bn. Cu tng ng ngha vi xu hng tng , k vng gi tng v vic mua. Nhng t ny c dng vi ngha nh nhau. Khi nhu cu tng, gi s tng cn khi cung tng th gi s gim. Khi cung v cu t mc cn bng th gi s n nh. bitcliuthtrngangmchtrhaykhngchaykhngthchcntmxemtinhng im no trc gi bin ng cha th vt qua c. V d i vi mt cp tin no , gi cp tin bin ng ngang sideway- sau cp tin khng th gim xung di mc ny h tr (support). iu cho thy cp tin ny s gp kh khn vt qua c mc gi ny trong tng lai. S bin ng ca cp tin cng lu m cha vt qua c mc gi support ny, cng cho thy s khng c mnh mc support ny, v ng nhin vt qua mc gi ny s cn lc bn ra nhiu hn mi c th khin gi cp tin gim vt qua mc support ny. Tuy vy, mc support v resistance ch yu c s dng xem xt s tin trin ca xu hng gi (xu hng tng, gim), qua d on kh nng xu hng s din ra mnh hoc ang c s thay i vi nhng phn ng mnh ca th trng vi xu hng ang din ra, du hiu ta tip tc hay rt lui khi th trng. Tuy nhin c nhng thi im khng hong, cc mc suppport v resistance khng cn gi tr na. Nhng nhng thi im y him khi xy ra. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 32 C 02 im quan trng cn ghi nh : 1.Khi th trng vt qua mc khng c,mc khng c c s tr thnh mc h tr mi v ngc li. 2.Vng khng c hoc h tr l vng m gi thng c mc khng c hoc h tr nhng khng ph v n. II. NG XU HNG ( TRENDLINES) ng biu din xu hng hu nh l dng ph bin nht ca phn tch k thut c s dng hin nay. Chng hu nh cng l mt dng khng c s dng ng mc nht. Nu c v ng, chng c th chnh xc nh bt k phng php no khc. Nhng ng tic, phn ln nhngngitraderkhngvnghochcvngxuhngbmthtchtccmcgithayv chng ta nn v mt cch tng i xoay quanh nhng im mc. Hoc v sai lm cho ng ny hp vi th trng thay cho mt hng khc. Th cn phi xem xt u tin trong khi nhn vo bt c th trng no l hng ca xu th lu di( long term trend) ( ngoi tr i vi cc day traders) Gi ch c th i theo 3 hng: ln, xung v sang 2 bn ( sideways). Mt ng di nhng khu vc gi cara chobn mt kiuthtrng.Sc rtnhiuchlm(dip) vchli(bumps)dc ng nhngbnvnnnnhnthcmthngchungln,xunghocsang2bn.Chngtacthnhnra hng ny hoc xu th ny bng cch v " trendlines". Trong dng c bn nht, mt ng xu hng i ln c v chy dc theo cc y ca cc mc sn. Trong mt hng xung, ng xu hng c v chy dc theo nhng nh ca khu vc mc trn. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 33 1. ng xu hng tng (Uptrend) Trong hnh thc c bn nht ca cc ng ny, mt ng xu hng tng c v dc y ca 2 khu vc support d pht hin ( thng c gi l valley) . Vi 3 im ta c mt ng xu hng, cng nhiu im th s chnh xc cng cao.Ni cch khc, ng uptrend lines c v bng cch ni cng nhiu nhng y thp lin tc nhau ( dc trn mt khu vc gi y) th cng tt. Mt ng trendline c xu th i ln i din cho mt khong support ln i vi gi min l ng ny cha b xm phm. iuquantrngnhtylkhongthigianchngtacnxtnlbaolu,gilkhungthigian (time frame). Thng thng ngi ta chn l ngy, tun, thng v sau l nm. 2. ng xu hng gim (Downtrend)Trong 1 xu hng gim, ng xu hng c v dc cc nh ca 2 khu vc resistance d nhn ra ( gi l peaks). Ni cng nhiu im th ng xu hng ny cng chnh xc. Nicch khc,Ccngxuhngloinylccngni ccnhcaolintcnhau. Ccng ny c th c v biu th nh ca mt xu hng c hnh thnh. Nhng ng xu hng ny biu th mt khu vc ch cht gi l resistance III. KNH (CHANNELS) Nu chng ta bc thm mt bc v l thuyt ng xu hng v v mt ng song song c cng gc ca ng ln hoc xung, chng ta s to ra mt knh. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 34 tomtknhln(ascendingchannel),nginvmtngsongsongccnggcving hng ln v sau di ng n v tr chm nh gn . iu ny nn c thc hin cng lc vi to ng xu hng. Tngtnhvychovictoramtknhxuhngxung(descendingchannel),bnvmtng song song vi ng xu hng xung, v dchchuyn chng n v tr sao cho chng chm vo nhng im nh trong mt giai on gn y. Nn v ng ny cng lc vi vic v ng xu hng. Khi gi chm ng xu hng di y th c th c s dng nh vng mua (Buy). Ngc li, khi gi chm ng knh pha trn c th s dng nh mt vng bn (Sell). NGHA CA KNH GI: Dng thu li trong kinh doanh ngn hn. C th dng to trng thi ngc chiu vi xu hng chnh trong ngn hn. Xc nhn chc chn hn v xu hng ang din ra. Sphvknhgithngmchmtsthayitrongxuhng.Tuynhinsphvknhgi khng mang ngha nh vy m n ch ra s tng gi mnh hn trong xu hng hin ti, nh u t c th li dng thi im xm nhp th trng hay gia tng thm trng thi hin c. Trng hp gi ch tin n gn knh gi nhng tht bi khng th tin n gn hn na, l du hiu xu hng c du hiu yu dn. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 35 Bi 5: CHUI FIBONACCI T s Fibonacci c s dng rt nhiu trong cc lnh vc kinh doanh,c bit l cng c hu hiu khi phn tch k thut trong kinh doanh ti chnh,v vy chng ta hy hc v quan tm n n. Chui Fibonacci c hnh thnh nh th no v ai l ngi pht hin ra chui s ? Khng ai khc,chnh l Leonardo Fibonacci,mt nh ton hc v i ngi (1175-1250),ngi pht hin ra qui lut ca dy s t nhin nh vy,v chui s c mang tn ng : Chui Fibonacci Chui Fibonacci l dy cc s t nhin v hn bt u t 1;1;2;3;5;8;13;21;34;55;89;144;233vi qui lut l mt s bt k trong chui (k t s th 3 tr i) lun bng tng ca hai s ng trc lin k vi n. ctnhquantrng cachuiFibonaccilbt c mt snotrongdysugpxpx1.618lns ngtrc vbng0.618lnsng sau.( vd34/55~55/89~144/233=0.618)v(55/34~89/55~ 233/144 ~ 1.618) v 1.618 ~ 1/0.618. s 1,618 c nh ngha l s phi c im ny ca chui Fibonacci xut hin trong t nhin,khoa hc, ton hc,...v cc t l 0.263, 0.382, 0.618, 1.618 c xem l t l vng (golden ratio) Tlvngcchuynthnhccmcphntrmtngngl23.6%,38.2%,50%,61.8%v 76,4%.Ngoiracmtsmcphntrmchitithncngcsdngnh100%,1.382,161.8%v 423%...Cc t l ny c dng trong phn tch k thut nh l cng c tm cc mc h tr,khng c tim nng v tm gi mc tiu. Cc t s thm vo to cc b t s nh sau : a. Price Retracement Levels (Cc mc thoi lui) 0.236, 0.382, 0.500, 0.618, 0.764 b. Price Extension Levels (Cc mc m rng) 0, 0.382, 0.618, 1.000, 1.382, 1.618 Bn s khng tht s cn bit lm th no tnh tt c cc s ny. Phn mm th ca bn s lm iu ny cho bn.Nhng s tt nu bit r l thuyt c bn ng sau cng c v bn s c kin thc khc ghi. B t s u tin c s dng nh cc mc thoi lui gi v c dng trong kinh doanh nh cc mc h tr v khng c. B t s th hai c s dng nh cc mc m rng gi v c s dng nh cc mc thu li k vng. Nhng ngi kinh doanh trn ton th gii lun s dng cc mc ny t cc lnh mua,bn v thu li. Trong phn tch k thut,cc mc t l vng ny c pht trin thnh mt s cng c chnh l: Fibonacci Retracements (v m rng),Fibonacci arcs,Fibonacci fans,Fibonacci time zones (v m rng) I. FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LEVELS (Cc mc thoi lui Fibonacci) FibonacciRetracementthngc chiathnh6ngngangchracc mc thoiluihoc lcc vng h tr v khng c,tng ng vi cc t l 100%,61.8%,50%,38.2%,23.6% v 0%. nghacaccmcthoiluinyl:Saumttbinnggilnhayxung,nhngmchtrv khng c mi thng ri vo ngay hoc gn cc ng ny. - S iu chnh gi dng mc 38.2% thng c xem l l du hiu ca mt xu hng c cn tip tc. - Mc iu chnh 50% c xem l mc trung lp,cha chc chn xu hng (Neutral) - Mc iu chnh 61.8% cho thy gi khng cn l s iu chnh m l bt u mt xu hng mi; _______________________________________________________________________________________ 36 Cch v Fibonacci Retracement trn thj : Nguyn tc v Fibonacci l phi v t qu kh n hin tai,xc nh qua hai im nh hoc y ca giai on phn tch. Bc 1: Xc nh cc mc cao v thp (nh hoc y) ca th gi trong giai on phn tch. Bc 2: Xc nh xu hng hin ti ca gi. Bc 3: V hnh xc nh nhng mc Fibo tm nhng ng h tr v khng c. Nu : a)Xu hng hin ti ang l tng th xu hng trc l gim.Ko v Fibonacci Retracement t nh ti ti y ca xu hng trc .b)Xu hng hin ti ang l gim th xu hng trc l tng.Ko v Fibonacci Retracement t y ti nh ti ca xu hng trc . Di y l th H1 ca USD/JPY. y chng ta v cc mc thoi lui bng cch nhp vo im y ti 110.78 v gi v ko con tr ti nh ti 112.27. Ta c th nhn thy cc mc c v bi phn mm. Cc mc thoi lui l 111.92 (23.6%), 111.70 (38.2%), 111.52(50%) v 111.35(61.8%).By gi s mong i l nu USD/JPY thoi lui t mc cao ny, n s tm thy s h tr ti mt trong cc mc Fibonacci,bi v nhng ngi kinh doanh s t lnh mua ti cc mc ny khi th trng tng tr li. By gi hy nhn xem din bin th trng. Gi ko tr li qua ng mc 23,6% v tip tc chc thng mc 38.2% k tip,nhng khng bao gi ng thc s bn di n.Cui ngy,th trng hi phc li hng ln ca n. R rng vic mua ti mc 38.2% s c mt giao dch ngn hn thnh cng. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 37 By gi hy xem lm th no s dng cc mc thoi lui Fibonacci trong mt xu hng xung. Diy l mt biu theo gi ca EUR/USD.Ta cnh ti 1.3278 v y ti 1.3169.Cc mc thoi lui l 1.3195 (23.6%), 1.3211 (38.2%), 1.3224 (50%) v 1.3236 (61.8%).S mong i i vi xu hng xung l sau khi chm khng c ti mt trong cc mc Fibonacci ny,n s thoi lui t mc cao ,bi v nhng ngi kinh doanh s t lnh bn ti cc mc ny khi th trng c gng ph mc phc hi. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 38 Hy kim tra ci g xy ra tip. Trong xu hng xung,th trng c gng hi phc li,n vt qua mc 38.2% hng ti mc 50% (1.3227)nhng khngscvtqua mc50%vngnndimc.Sauthanh,bncth thy rng s hi phc o chiu v hng xung tip tc. Bn nn thc hin bn ti mc 38.2% Thm mt v d khc. Di y l mt th theo gi cho GBP/USD,c nh ti 1.7438 v y ti 1.7336. Nh vy cc mc thoi luisl:1.7360(23.6%),1.7375(38.2%),1.7387(50%)v1.7399(61.8%).Nhnvoth,thtrng trng nh n c gng ph v mc 50% trong vi thi im nhng tht bi.V vy t lnh bn ti mc 50% l mt giao dch thnh cng. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 39 T nhng v dtrn chothy,thtrng thng tm thy t nht s h tr (trong xu hng ln) hoc s khng c tm thi (trong xu hng xung) ti cc mc thoi lui Fibonacci. R rng l c mt vi vn quan tm y.Khng c cch no bit uc mc no s l h tr/khng c.Mc 23.6% c th coi l mc h tr/khng c yu nht, trong kh cc mc h tr/ khng c khc gn nh cng tn sut. Cho d l cc th trn cho thy th trng thng ch thoi lui ti mc 38.2%,n khng c ngha mi ln gi s chm mc v o hng. i khi n s chm mc 50% v o hng, nhng ln khc n s chm mc 61.8% v o hng, v nhng ln khc na gi s b qua tt c cc mc Fibonacci v vt qua tt c cc mc ny. II. FIBONACCI PRICE EXTENSION LEVELS (Cc mc m rng Fibonacci) Trong mt xu hng ln,quan im chung l thu li nhun trn cc giao dch mua ti cc mc Fibonacci m rng. xc nh cc mc m rng cn s dng 03 click chut.Trc tin, nhp vo mt y,sau di con tr v click trn nh.Cui cng,di con tr xung tr li v nhp ti im y thoi lui.Khi ta s ccc mc m rng cc t s v cc mc gi tng ng. Hy xem cch v cc mc ca Fibonacci m rng trn th : Trn biu H1 ca USD/CHF, chng ta v cc mc m rng bng cch nhp trn y ti 1.2447 v r tr n nh ti1.2593 v sau ko xung ti mc thoi lui 1.2541.Cc mc m rng Fibonacci c to ral1.2597(38.2%),1.2631(61.8%),1.2687(100%),1.2743(138.2%),1.2760(150%),v1.2777 (161.8%). By gi hy nhn xem iu g thc s xy ra sau khi mc thoi lui 1.2541 xy ra.Th trng hi phc n mc 50%, gim xung tr li mc thoi lui 1.2541,sau hi phc tr ln mc 50% ,gim nh tr lihi phc n mc 61.8% ,xung tr li mc 38.2% l mc h tr, sau hi phc ln n mc 138.2% ,cng c mt cht, sau hi phc ti mc 150% _______________________________________________________________________________________ 40 Tccvdnychothythtrngthngtmthyskhngctmthiticcmcmrng Fibonacci,khngphillunlunnhngthngxyra.Nhtrongnhngvdvccmcthoilui, khng c cch no bit c u s l mc khng c.Mc 50% l mt mc tt thu li (Take profit) choccgiaodchlong(mua)vthtrngthoiluitrlimcbanucan,nhngnubnng giao dch,bn s b mt nhiu li nhun. Hy xem Fibonacci m rng c s dng trong trng hp xu hng gi ang gim (downtrend).Trong mt xu hng xung,vic thu li s thc hin trn mt giao dch short (bn) ti cc mc gi Fibonacci m rng v th trng lun tm thy s h tr tm thi ti cc mc ny. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 41 Trn biu EUR/USD trn, v cc mc Fibonacci m rng bng cch nhp ti nh 1.2137 v r con tr ti y ti 1.2021 v sau ko xung mc thoi lui ti 1.2085. Cc mc m rng c to l 1.2041 (38.2%2),1.2027(50%),1.2013(61.8%),1.1969(100%),1.1925(138.2%),1.1911(150%)v1.1897 (161.8%). By gi hy nhn xem iu g thc s xy ra sau khi mc thoi lui 1.2085 xy ra.Th trng gim xung timc38.2%vgiaonggiamcthoilui1.2085vmc1.2041(38.2%).Saukhiphvmc 38.2%,gi tin n testmc 50% v tip tc chinh phc mc 100% sau khi ph v mc 50%. III. CC DNG FIBONACCI KHC Ngoi Fibonacci Retracement (v cc mc m rng) nu trn nh l nhng cng c thng xuyn c s dng,i khi ngi ta cng dng mt s cc dng Fibonacci khc phn tch.Bao gm : 1. Fibonacci Arcs Cch v v s dng :a)Tm cc mc cao v thp (nh hoc y) ca th gi trong giai on phn tch. b)Xc nh xu hng ca gic)Ko v Fibonacci Arcs xc nh cc mc gi,bao gm 4 ng cong tng ng vi cc t l 23.6%,38.2%,50% v 61.8%.S dng cc ng cong ny tm nhng mc h tr,khng c. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 42 2. Fibonacci Fans Cch v v s dng : a)Tm cc mc cao v thp (nh hoc y) ca th gi trong giai on phn tch. b)Xc nh xu hng ca gi c)KovFibonacciFansxcnhccmcgi.mtngthngvhnhni2imcaothp (nh v yti mc a).4 ng xu hng c v t im th nht cho cc ng xu hng nynmquamtbncangthngvhnhvcchiatheotlFibonacciccmc 26.3%; 38.2%;50%; v 61.8%. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 43 3. Fibonacci Time Zones FibonacciTimeZoneschnhthnhbngcchchiathgithnhnhiuphnbngnhngng thng ng c khong cch tng thch vi trnh t ca chui Fibonacci (1,1,2,3,5,8,13,.) Cch v v s dng : a)Chn 2 im bt u l nh hoc y gn nht trong giai on phn tch. b)V v cn chnh. c)Nhng ng thng ng dng d on thi im s xy ra nh hoc y trong tng lai. IV. KT LUN NuchpdngFibonaccitronggiaodch mtcchringrs khnglm chobngiu.Tuynhin,cc mc Fibonacci chc chn hu dng nh l mt phn ca phng thc giao dch hiu qu khi kt hp vi cc k thut v phn tch khc. Cha kha thnh cng ca mt h thng giao dch thng minh chnh l s phi hp mt cch hp l cc cng c phn tch.Bi hc v cc mc Fibonacci c th l mt cngc hu ch, nhng khng bao gi giao dch ch da vo mt mnh cc mc Fibonacci.