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1

The Wind energy OuTlOOk ScenariOS 1

glObal Wind energy OuTlOOk | 2012

November 01

GLOBAL Wind EnErGy

OutLOOk|2012

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Global Wind EnErGy outlook | 2012

COntEnts

1 Wi Eerg aCiate Cage 4

What l can wind ngy play in idging th gap? 6

2 Te Goa Wi EergOtook Scearios 8

IeA Nw Plicis scnai 9

GWeo mdat scnai 9

GWeo Adancd scnai 9

Glal scnai sults 10

Glal cuulati wind pw capacity 11

Capacity gwth 11

rginal akdwn: Nw Plicis scnai 12

rginal akdwn: mdat scnai 13

rginal akdwn: Adancd scnai 13

Pductin and sha lcticity supply 13

Pjctins lcticity dand dlpnt 14

Wind pw sha glal lcticity dand 15

Spcic csts p kilwatt installd 15

Instnt 16

eplynt 16

Instnt and plynt (annual installatin in mW) 17

Can dixid saings 17

Annual Co2 issins ductins 19

Cuulati Co2 issins ductins 19

Annual and cuulati Co2 issins ductins 19

rsach ackgund 20

Wld map: rginal akdwn

cuulati capacity up t 030 22

3 Regioa ScearioRests 24

Aica 25

China 27

eastn eup/euasia 30

India 33

Latin Aica 35

middl east 37

Nn-oeCD Asia 39

oeCD eup 41

oeCD Pacic 44

oeCD Nth Aica 47

Annx 50

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3Global Wind EnErGy outlook | 2012

Stee SawerSecretary General Global Wind Energy Council

Se TeskeDirector, Renewable EnergyGreenpeace International

Kas RaeChairman Global Wind Energy Council

FOrEWOrd

Te Goa Wi Eerg Coci a Greeeace

Iteratioa are ease to reset tis ort

eitio o te Goa Wi Eerg Otook or 2012,

te atest roct o a coaoratio tat goes ack

to 1999. A ot as aee i te itereig ears.

Wind pw has nw stalishd itsl as a ainsta

lcticity gnatin suc, and plays a cntal l

in an incasing nu cuntis idiat and

lng t ngy plans. At 15 yas aag

cuulati gwth ats aut 8%, th ccial

wind pw installatins in aut 80 cuntis at th

nd last ya ttalld aut 40 GW, haing incasd

y than 40 tis that sa pid. Twnty

tw cuntis ha than 1,000 mW installd.

Th y act th siz th industy, hw,

ans that it is nt iun t th sisic shcks

that ha attd th glal cny th past

sal yas. Dand gwth is y slw, nn-

xistnt ngati in st th oeCD, s dand

nw pw gnatin any kind is sli, and thcptitin is c. China has n th ain di

th gwth th industy th last yas, ut

w said it culdnt g n , and nw its stppd:

w dnt xpct signicant gwth in th Chins

akt until at 015, althugh it is still likly t

th akt lad. bazil, India, Canada and mxic a

y dynaic akts, ut cannt yt ak up th

lack gwth in th taditinal akts in eup, th

US and China. Th a any xciting nw aktsin Latin Aica, Aica and Asia wh w s aj

ptntial gwth in th diu t lng t;

ut asnt a nw ans putting a glal pic n

can, nw dand gwth in th oeCD n n a

stng cnic cy, s th unsn

dlpnt, th industys at gwth will slw

sustantially in th cing w yas.

but th Glal Wind engy outlk isnt aut th

nxt w yas, its aut what th industy will lk lik

in 00, 030 and ynd. Dspit th cunt akt

tuulnc, all th undantals which ha din

th daatic gwth th industy th past tw

dcads a still th, and will nly gt stng

ti: ngy scuity; lcticity pic staility; j

catin and lcal cnic dlpnt; ducing

sh wat cnsuptin and pllutin; ducing lcal

ai pllutin; and cus ducing can dixid

issins.

As in th past, w us th Intnatinal engy

Agncys Wld engy outlk as a aslin in ts

th dnitin gins, GDP, lcticity dand,

and ppulatin gwth, tc. but ath than th ld

nc scnai, which dnd a usinss-as-usual

that yn knw just wasnt ging t happn, thIeAs Nw Plicis scnai is nw th cntal scnai

in th Wld engy outlk, and w ha adptd it as

u aslin as wll.

With a nwly updatd engy ecincy Dand

scnai, w nc again xain th dlpnt

paths th industy: th IeA Nw Plicis scnai,

th GWeo mdat scnai, and th GWeo

Adancd scnai; and asu th against tw

dint dand scnais t dn a ang pssil

utus th sct, th ginally and glally. W

hp that yu nd it usul.

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,

p

y,

1 | Wind EnErGy And

CLimAtE ChAnGE

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Wind EnErGy And C LimAtE C hAnGE 1

Pulic cncn and plitical pssu t tackl th cliat

pl had its st cnt pak at th UN cliat

ngtiatins in Cpnhagn in Dc 009. Thpund disappintnt at th ailu gnnts t

c t gips with th issu sultd in cliat chang ing

placd n th ack un a w yas, th plitically, and

in th pss. but th pss (and th pulic) a waking up.

Nw sach NASAs Gddad Institut Spac

Studis1 dnstats that cnt xt wath nts,

paticulaly th scching sus in th US and russia and

th dught which has sly ipactd this yas US cn

cp a a dict cnsqunc cliat chang. This yas

Cliat vulnaility mnit cits 400,000 daths annually

alady attiutal t cliat chang, with cnic csts

alady aching 1. tillin USD, ughly 1.6% glal

GDP; and this is, cus, st t is daatically. Th cd

tat th Actic sa ic this past su sasn is a gi

ind that cliat chang is aut physics, nt plitics;

n thugh th aility huanity t dal with th pl

is ultiatly dtind y plitics, at last nw. A ti

will c in th nt t distant utu whn th issu is ut

hands th pliticians and in th hands th gncy

sics.

but th plitics dnt lk y gd at th nt. At th

UN cliat ngtiatins in Cancn in 010, gnnts

agd that thi all jcti was t kp glal antpatu is lw tw dgs C a th p-industial

aag, with than 100 cuntis aguing that it shuld

n lw. In d t achi that tagt, what all dls

ag is that at a iniu, glal issins nd t pak and

gin t dclin wll th nd this dcad. Dspit

that, a ya lat at th ngtiatins in Duan, in what was

widly haild as a akthugh, gnnts agd t

gin ngtiatins n a nw agnt which wuld nly

cpltd in 015 and which wuld nt c int ct

until 00. This ans that th nw wk sta agd

in Duan t ais cllcti aitin will citical t

achiing that st and st iptant tagt i w a taid th wst aags cliat chang. W d nt ha

ti ight yas intnatinal ngtiatins

w gt statd in anst.

Untunatly, th is signicant idnc that w a ging

ackwads. Dspit patd wanings aut th daag

t th th cliat and th cny susidis t

ssil uls, thy cntinu t is, y as uch as 50%

just th past tw yas, accding t th IeA, whs Chi

ecnist Fatih bil has n n th last likly ut

st cal citics th incnnint tuth aut achiing

agd cliat tagts, whil gnnts a spnding thi

ny taking us xactly in th ppsit dictin. Th 1st

cntuy quialnt th ld bulltin Atic Scintistsdsday clck, Th Cliat Actin Tack3, puts us n tack

at th nt t s aut 3.3 C waing y th nd

th cntuy n th asis xisting citnts. Th is

cuntly a gap 10 illin tnns Co2 p ya4 twn

cunt cnd natinal issin ductin tagts and

wh w nd t y 00; and n i th pldgs ad

in Cpnhagn and cnd in Cancn a t in ull, w

still lking at a gap 6 illin tnns p ya; and glal

issins cntinu t is.

Th a ths wh nw say that C is ut ach and that

w t lat, and whil that ay ay nt pliticallyth cas, it is ctain that w ha th tchnlgy and th

nanc t ak th shit y quickly shuld th plitical

ladship appa. W knw that this can achid with

cunt tchnlgis, in th pw sct and lswh; and

i th plitical dictin was cla, w culd paly achi

a gat dal .

1 Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, and R. Ruedy, 2012: Perception o climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad.Sci., doi:10.1073/pnas.1205276109.

2 http://daraint.org/climate-vulnerability-monitor/climate-vulnerability-monitor-2012/3 http://climateactiontracker.org/4 K. Blok, N. Hhne, K. van der Leun, and N. Harrison, Bridging the greenhouse-gas emissions

gap, Nature Climate Change 2, 471474 (2012) doi:10.1038/nclimate1602 - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1602

Gc Harry Michalas/ GWEC

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6 Global Wind EnErGy outlook | 2012

1 Wind EnErGy And CLimAtE ChAnGE

WhAt rOLE CAn Wind EnErGy pLAy in BridGinG thE GAp5?

So were oes wi eerg ft ito tis eqatio?

Untunatly, th is n sil ullt, and n singl answ

t th cliat pl. It cuts acss th ntity th

ways in which 1st cntuy ciilizatin pducs and

cnsus ngy, th way it pactics agicultu and

sty, th chicals w ak and las int th

isph, and hw w tat u wast. Nnthlss, wind

ngy has a cucial l t play.

Th pw sct is spnsil than 40% all

can dixid issins uning ssil uls, and aut

5% u ttal gnhus gas issins. I w a ging t

ak signicant issin ductins in th na t diu

t, thn w ha t lk at th pw sct. In th pid

ut t 00, w dnt ha t any ptins.

Th st ths is ngy cincy. As shwn in study

at study th last u dcads and , th a

innual cst-cti ways t sa ngy with xisting

tchnlgis. Why dnt w d it? Wll, th 600 illin USD

in susidis t th ssil industy ight n asn,

and th lack an cti pic n can is anth.

Th scnd is ul switching cal t gas - a signicant

aunt which is happning at th nt in th US andlswh, althugh th dlpnt th chap shal gas

in th US has a cliat dwnsid in ts th incasd

than issins assciatd with its pductin ut

that pl can itigatd, i th was th will (and th

quint) t d s.

Th thid, cus, is nwal ngy, and in th ti

a ut t 00 and a gd whil ynd that, th

lagst cntiut will wind ngy. Wind pw will

duc issins y aut 400 illin tnns in 01. Hw

uch can it y 00?

Up until tw yas ag, th industy was n tack t t

th GWeo Adancd scnai, n a tajcty t supass

1,000 GW installd y 00, and saing 1.6 illin tnns

Co2 p ya; alng th lins st ut in th iginal

Wind Force 106 pulicatin 1999.

Sinc th nd 009, hw, w alln ack twadsth mdat scnai tack. Cincidnc? may, ut th

sa cs that ha put th cliat chang agnda n th

ack un th past cupl yas cssin in st

th oeCD, th lack eU aitin t x its issin

tading syst, ckl plicy in th US and lswh ha

cntiutd t slw gwth in th wind ngy sct a fat

akt in 010, dst gwth in 011 and again this ya;

and a y unctain 013 akt. on th mdat scnai

tack ut t 00 w wuld still s a cuulati capacity

than 750 GW, and annual Co2 saings n th d

1 illin tnns/annu. Nt insignicant, and tt than

th ld IeA nc scnai upn which th gap analysis is

asd, ut nt sucint wind ngy t play its ull pat in

cating th cliat cisis.

So wat o we ee to start growig rai agai,

to ake or ow aagigatoe ga?

Anendtothepartisanbickeringoverenergypolicyinthe

US which cats th dstucti -ust cycls in that

citical akt;

Resolutionofgrid,certication,transparencyandquality

issus in China;

FlushingthefreeallocationsoutoftheEuropeanEmissions

Tading Syst; Are-vitalizationofthecarbonmarketstheKyoto

Ptcls Clan Dlpnt mchanis has than

100 GW wind ngy pjcts in th piplin, ut in th

asnc a nw dand th cdits, fcting

incasd issins ductin aitin

gnnts, th pic th cdits a s lw as t

alst iatial;

Thepoliticalcourageonthepartofatleastsome

gnnts t tackl th susidis issu in th

cnntinal ngy sct;

Perhaps most importantly, stable, bankable policy in as

any natinal ngy akts as pssil.

Any n th a wuld cntiut signicantly t -

stalishing apid gwth in th wind ngy sct. W can

nly hp that th sugnc pulic cncn aut cliat

chang and th accpanying plitical pssu will gnat

th kind plitical ladship ncssay t gt us ack n

tack twads a sustainal ngy utu, with wind pw

aking its ull cntiutin twads t ptcting th cliat

syst usls and utu gnatins.

5 The gap language here is borrowed rom work done by ECOFYS, see note 46 www.inorse.dk/doc/Windorce10.pd

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CLimAtE ChAptEr drAFt shruti 1

Hs Hllw, Txas, US Wind Power Works

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2 | thE GLOBAL Wind EnErGy

OutLOOk sCEnAriOs

ri d Fg, ri Gand d Nt, bazil Wind Power Works

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thE GLOBAL Wind EnErGy OutLOOk sCEnAriOs 2

Th Glal Wind engy outlk xpls th utu th

wind ngy industy ut t 00, 030 and up t 050,

with a ang th scnais: Th Nw Plicis scnai th Intnatinal engy Agncy (IeA) and tw scnais

dlpd spcially this pulicatin, th GWeo mdat

scnai and GWeo Adancd scnai.

Th latt tw scnais ha ld th yas as

cllaatin twn th Glal Wind engy Cuncil

(GWeC), Gnpac Intnatinal, and th Gan

Aspac Cnt (Dutschs Zntu Lut- und

rauaht DLr). Ths pjctins n th utu wind

ngy dlpnt ha cntiutd t an n-ging sis

lag studis n glal sustainal ngy pathways up

t 050 cnductd y DLr and Gnpac in cllaatin

with a nu industy assciatins, including GWeC andth eupan rnwal engy Cuncil (ereC).1

Th cunt latility and sisic shits undway in th glal

cny, and th unctainty intnatinal cliat plicy,

aks lking int th utu th wind industy n

hazadus than usual. H w psnt th scnais ach

th IeA-dnd gins as wll as glal ttals, lking twads

00 and thn t 030 with lng t pjctins ut t

050 in th annx tal. A i dsciptin th undlying

assuptins and pups ach scnai is utlind lw.

iEA nEW pOLiCiEs sCEnAriO

Piusly, w ha usd th IeA Wld engy outlks

rnc scnai as th aslin in this xcis. That

scnai is asically an assuptin th status qu, and

whil it still xists within th Wld engy outlk (Weo)

awk (as th Cunt Plicis scnai), it is n lng

th cntal scnai. Th Nw Plicis scnai is asd

n an assssnt cunt dictins and intntins th

natinal and intnatinal ngy and cliat plicy, n

thugh thy ay nt yt ha n incpatd int

al dcisins nactd int law. exapls this wuld

includ th issins ductin tagts adptd in Cancun

in 010, th aius citnts t nwal ngy and

cincy at natinal and ginal lls, and citnts

y gnnts in such a as th G-8/G-0 and th Clan

engy ministial. Th Nw Plicis scnai has takn

its plac at th cnt th Weo analysis, althugh th

dinc twn that and th ld rnc scnai whn

it cs t wind pw is aginal. Th IeA scnais g ut

t 035 and w xtaplatd ut t 050 cpaisn

pupss y DLr.

GWEO mOdErAtE sCEnAriO

Th GWeo mdat scnai has any th sa

chaactistics as th IeA Nw Plicis scnai, taking int

accunt all plicy asus t suppt nwal ngy

ith alady nactd in th planning stags aund th

wld, and at th sa ti assuing that th citnts

issins ductins agd y gnnts at Cancun

will iplntd, althugh n th dst sid. At thsa ti it taks int accunt xisting and plannd natinal

and ginal tagts th uptak nwal ngy in

gnal and wind ngy in paticula, and assus that thy

a in act t.

Thugh th ya pid ut t 016, th mdat

scnai is y cls t u annual ya akt cast,

asd n industy ds and planning as wll as intllignc

u glal ntwk aut nw and ging akts.At 016 it is dicult t ak a pcis cast gin th

cunt st glal unctaintis.

GWEO AdvAnCEd sCEnAriO

Th st aitius scnai, th Adancd scnai

xpls th xtnt t which th wind industy culd gw

in a st cas wind ngy isin, ut still wll within th

capacity th industy as it xists tday and is likly t gw

in th utu. It assus an unaiguus citnt t

nwal ngy in lin with industy cndatins,th plitical will t cit t apppiat plicis and th

staina t stick with th.

It als assus that gnnts nact cla and cti

plicis n can issin ductins in lin with

th nw unisally agd jcti kping glal

an tpatu is lw C a p-industial

tpatus. Wind pw is an aslutly citical tchnlgy

t ting th st jcti in th attl t stay lw C which is gtting glal issins t pak and gin t dclin

th nd this dcad.

1 See http://www.energyblueprint.ino

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2 thE GLOBAL Wind EnErGy OutLOOk sCEnAriOs

GLOBAL sCEnAriO rEsuLts

Whil th IeA Nw Plicis scnai shws a fat and thnslightly dcasing akt wind pw th nxt tw

dcads, th GWeo scnais paint a pictu tw dint

utus:

Th mdat scnai is likly in a wld which

cais n lss th way it has n, with wind pw

cntinuing t gain gund ut still stuggling against haily

susidizd incunt ngy sucs, and with th patchwk

can issin ductin asus that xist at psnt,with a lw pic n can issins, wh n xists at all.

Th Adancd scnai shws th ptntial wind pw t

pduc 0% glal lcticity supply in a wld

wh th is stng plitical citnt and intnatinal

cpatin t ting alady agd cliat chang gals,

nhancing ngy scuity, daatically ducing sh wat

cnsuptin and cating illins nw js aund th

wld. Which utu will w chs?

1999 Win d Force 10Blueprint and actual de velopment. total GW Wind c apacity installed GloBally

0

50

100

150

200

250

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

GW

10 GW

237 GW229 GW

Actual

Wind Force 10

A lOOK bACK AT WInd FORCE 10

In oct 1999, th wind industy pulishd its st

glal cast 00, which that dat sd

uniaginaly a in th utu. Cing a y succssul

ya th industy in 1998 whn than ,500 mW wind pw was installd t ing th glal ttal t

10,000 mW, th eupan Wind engy Assciatin,

Gnpac Intnatinal, and th Fu engy and

Dlpnt launchd Wind Force 10, utlining a pathway

wind pw t achi 10% glal lcticity supply

y 00. With analysis pidd y big madsn bTm

Cnsult, th lupint was dsignd t shw what was

pssil with all pssil plicy suppt. many disissd

th analysis as pi-in-th-sky, ut th ality th

industy than a dcad lat tlls a dint sty.

Th scnai was nd and updatd sal tis

th yas until with th additin th meSAP/PlaNt

dl supplid y DLr in 006 it ca th Glal Wind

engy outlk, a jint i-nnial pulicatin y th Glal

Wind engy Cuncil and Gnpac Intnatinal,

which this is th uth. but th ascinating thing is hwclsly th actual dlpnt th industy sinc 1998

has tackd that iginal scnai as shwn in th gu

lw. Th iginal lupint has c what w nw

t as u Adancd scnai, and althugh aid at

thugh uch scintic ans, it stays asically th

sa in ttal nus, althugh th ginal distiutin

is quit dint.

Althugh th industy has dlpd alng th lins u

Adancd scnai up until th last w yas, w a nw

ing twads th mdat scnai. W nd

isinay plicyaks t cat th cnditins t gt us

ack n th Adancd tack.

2 See www.inorse.dk/doc/Windorce10.pd

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GLOBAL CumuLAtivE Wind pOWEr CApACity

New Policies scenario

Moderate scenario

Advanced scenario

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

, , MW

011 015 00 030

nw p

[MW] 37,699 397,859 586,79 917,798

[TWh/a] 583 976 1,439 ,41

m

[MW] 37,699 45,155 759,349 1,617,444

[TWh/a] 583 1,043 1,863 4,51

a

[MW] 37,699 530,945 1,149,919 ,541,135

[TWh/a] 583 1,30 ,81 6,678

CApACity GrOWth

ASSumpTIOnS On GROWTh RATES

Gwth ats in th GWeo scnais a asd n a

cinatin histical tnds, cunt and plannd

plicis, nw and ging akts wind pw, and

assuptins n th dictin all cliat and ngyplicy. Whil dul-digit gwth ats as assud in th

th mdat and Adancd scnais ut t 00 ay

s high a anuactuing industy, actual wind industy

cuulati gwth ats ha aagd aut 8% th

past tn yas. Intstingly, annual akt gwth ats

th pid a als aut 8%, althugh th int-

annual aiaility is uch high du t th icissituds

th aktplac and th stat th glal cny. Th

cuulati akt gwth gus a a usul way t

lk at th industy th lng t.

In th Adancd scnai, cuulati gwth ats stat

wll lw th histical aag at 1%, c slightly inth iddl this dcad and thn tap t 13% y th

nd th dcad, dpping t 6% y 030. Th mdat

scnai stats with aut 19% gwth in 01, taping

gadually t 11% y 00 and thn als t 6% y 030, whil

th IeA Nw Plicis scnai stats at 16% in 01, sinking t

6% y 00 and thn t 4% y 030.

It shuld n in ind that cuulati akt gwth

gus will initaly dp ti in alst any scnai asth siz th cuulati akt gws; althugh n sall

pcntag incass a dcad ut nw will an a lag

actual incas in th quantity wind pw dplyd.

SCEnARIO RESulTS

Th IeA Nw Plicis scnai pjcts that annual wind

ngy akts will stay ssntially fat ut t 015, and thn

shink t aut 10% lw th 011 akt th scnd

hal this dcad. It thn pjcts a gadual dcas in th

annual akt t 030 and ains fat th st th

pid. on th asis this, cuulati installd capacity

wuld still ach 587 GW y 00, and 918 GW y 030.Inically, th 00 nu 587 GW is alst xactly th

sa as th IeA rnc scnai pdictd 030 tw

yas ag.

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Th GWeo mdat scnai llws th lins u sht

t akt pjctins ut thugh 016, with annual

akt siz tpping 70 GW y 00 a ttal cuulatiinstalld capacity 759 GW y that dat. W ha takn int

accunt what lks lik a y dicult ya in 013, which

cntiuts t a slightly cnsati pjctin

00 than w ad tw yas ag, n thugh th akt

has utpd th dat scnai th past tw

yas. Und this scnai, gwth wuld cntinu thughut

th 00s, with annual akt siz appaching 100 GW p

ya and a ttal installd capacity aut 1,600 GW y

030.

Th GWeo Adancd scnai aintains aitius gwth

ats thughut this dcad, assuing that cunt akt

dicultis a c in th na utu. With annual

akt siz tpping 130 GW y th nd th dcad, it

assus that anuactuing capacity cntinus t incas

whil akt dand incass t ll it. Ttal installd

capacity achs 1,150 GW y 00 and than ,500 GW

y 030, fcting a ull citnt t dcanising th

glal lcticity supply which w nd t d sn ath

than lat.

rEGiOnAL BrEAkdOWn: nEW pOLiCiEs sCEnAriO

OECD Paci c 3%

2%

21%

1%

36%

1%

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rEGiOnAL BrEAkdOWn: mOdErAtE sCEnAriO

OECD Paci c 6%

5%

20%

3%

28%

3%

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Aag capacity acts glally tday a aut 8%, ut

ay widly gin t gin, and a gnally incasing

with apid nw dlpnts in y windy lcatins inbazil, mxic, sh and lswh. Hw, th is als

an incasd phasis n dlping nw tuins nw

lcatins with lss wind sucs ut which ay cls

t lad cnts. Th, w ha lt th aag glal

capacity act at 8% th pid ut t 030, incasing

t 30% at that dat. Th ality is that it will paly gat than that, ut gin th wid aiatins within th IeA

gins w ha usd th GWeo scnais, w ha usd

th sa glal aags acss th ginal analyss as wll.

prOjECtiOns FOr ELECtriCity dEmAnd dEvELOpmEnt

Whil it is usul t calculat th actual lcticity pductin

th glal installatins wind pw, it is als hlpul

t put it in th cntxt glal lcticity dand, and t

thy dtin what pcntag that gwing dand

pw wind ngy can supply. each th th scnais

in this study is st against tw dint pjctins th

utu gwth lcticity dand: th IeA (rnc)

dand pjctin, and th engy ecincy dand

pjctin.

IEA dEmAnd pROjECTIOn

As a aslin w ha usd th IeAs lcticity dand

pjctin th Nw Plicis scnai th 011 Wld

engy outlk, including its assuptins n ppulatin and

GDP gwth, xtaplatd ut t 050 y DLr. Again, this

assus s asus t cu issins gwth and cata sustainal ngy utu, ut ds nt s aj

shits.

With ths assuptins, th scnai lks lcticity

dand t gw 18,000 TWh last ya t than

4,000 TWh y 00, and t just 30,000 TWh y 030;

asically dul what it was in 005.

EnERGy EFFICIEnCy dEmAnd pROjECTIOn

W als asu u pgss against an engy ecincy

dand pjctin, iginally dlpd th engy[r]lutin scnai y th eCoFYS cnsultancy, which

has nw n updatd y sachs at th Unisity

Utcht3, updating th ngy cincy scnai usd in

pius ditins this pulicatin. Th study includs th

iplntatin st pactic xisting tchnlgis and

a ctain sha nw cincy tchnlgis, whil using

th sa assuptins ppulatin and GDP gwth

th pid as th IeA, and assuing n stuctual cnic

changs ynd ths in th IeA scnai. Th uptak

-ility at 00 is als includd in th study. It ds

nt s listyl changs lss in ct lls, n

ds it s standd assts, i.., th aly tint

incint installatins in au cint ns.

This engy ecincy dand pjctin, thn, nly taps

s th ptntial ngy saings and incasd

cincy which a aailal t us nw, and which will likly

aailal in th na utu. Hw, it is an indicat

what can dn at y lw n cst i w a t sius

aut achiing u cliat and ngy scuity jctis.

SCEnARIO RESulTS

In th IeA Nw Plicis scnai, wind pw cntiuts

1439 TWh lcticity t th glal ngy ix in 00,

3 tis th 480 TWh pducd y wind pw in 011.

masud against th tw dint dand scnais, this

wuld cunt 6.0 t 6.4% ttal glal lcticity dand,appxiatly th sha that wind pw cntiutd t th

eupan pw ix in 011. by 030, this nu iss t

just ,400 TWh, accunting twn 8 and 9%

glal dand a spctal nu, ut a lss than wind

pws ptntial cntiutin.

Th GWeo mdat scnai nisags a sustantially

lag cntiutin wind, which wuld gnat

1,866 TWh in 00, ising t alst 4,300 TWh in 030.

This wuld an that wind pw wuld t twn 7.7%

and 8.3% glal lctical dand in 00, and twn

14.1% and 15.8% in 030; quit a sustantial cntiutin,ut paly nt in lin with what wuld quid t t

agd cliat ptctin gals.

Th GWeo Adancd scnai shws that wind pw culd

gnat just ,800 TWh lcticity y 00, ting

twn 11.7% and 1.6% glal lcticity dand, in lin

with th industys lng t jctis and cnsistnt with

th ida haing glal issins pak 00. Ths

nus cntinu t is stply in th susqunt dcad,

with wind pw cntiuting than 6,600 TWh in

030, ting twn .1% and 4.8% ttal lcticity

dand.

3 http://www.energyblueprint.ino/fleadmin/media/documents/2012/UU_Demand_pro-jections_or_energy_revolution_2012_30-3-12.pd

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Wind pOWEr shArE OF GLO BAL E LEC tri Cit y dEmAnd

Moderate scenarioEnergy eciency demand projection

Advanced scenario

Energy eciency demand projection

New Policies scenarioEnergy eciency demand projection

Moderate scenarioIEA demand projection

Advanced scenario

IEA demand projection

New Policies scenarioIEA demand projection

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

011 015 00 030

nw p

IEA demand projection 3.5% 4.7% 6.0% 8.0%

Energy efciency demand projection 3.5% 4.8% 6.4% 9.0%

m

IEA demand projection 3.5% 5.0% 7.7% 14.1%


a

IEA demand projection 3.5% 6.3% 11.7% .1%


spECiFiC COsts pEr kiLOWAtt instALLEd


Advanced scenario

Moderate scenario

2011 2015 2020 2030

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500 /kW

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invEstmEnt

Th capital cst tuins has n dcasing, pcipituslyin s akts, th past sal yas, th in adjustd

and in aslut ts. o lat, this has n lagly th

sult akt cs, ut at th sa ti, cntinuus

dsign nnts and xpinc with ass pducing

an incasing nu th sa siila tuins ha

dcasd th cst th tchnlgy itsl. Th th aj

act, cdity pics, has cntiutd t th dcas

in pics, althugh th industy is suscptil t pic spiks,

paticulaly stl and cpp. Th a als signicant

ginal aiatins, as th cptitin and th undlying

akt acts act th nal csts, and th will int-

annual aiatins ynd th scp ths scnais as

a sult akt cs, cdity pics and th at

infatin.

rgadlss, th gwth th wind pw industy is

attacting incasd instnt th past w yas,

aching 50.7 illin in nw wind pw quipnt in 011.

Th dlpnt tuin csts in th GWeo scnais

assus gadually dcasing csts in aslut ts,

fcting th pjctd gwth th industy. In th IeA

Nw Plicis scnais th csts ain ughly static th pid ut t 030.

Capital csts p kilwatt installd capacity w

cnsidd t ha aagd 1,50 in 011. F th Nw

Plicis scnai thy dnt chang signicantly th

scnai pid, nding up at 1,67/kw in 030. In th

mdat scnai pics dp t aut 1,00/kw in 00

and t 1,168/kw y 030; and in th Adancd scnai, with

apid scal up, csts dp apidly, dwn t 1,147 y

00 and t 1,137 y 030.

Annual instnts in wind pw quipnt in 011 w

just 50 illin. In th rnc scnai, this dcass

t 45 illin p ya y 00, and t 4.5 illin in 030.

In th mdat scnai, annual instnt incass t

naly 90 illin y 00 and t naly 115 illin p ya

y 030. Finally, in th Adancd scnai, annual instnts

is t 154 illin y 00, and thn t 170 illin y 030.

Ths gus a indd lag, ut thy shuld sn in

th cntxt ttal pw sct instnts, which will

accding t th IeA, nd t wll 500 illin

annually th pid in qustin.

EmpLOymEnt

As gnnts stuggl with high unplynt ats in

any pats th wld, th th cunt ality and utu

ptntial plynt in th wind industy c

incasingly signicant. Th industy cats a sustantial

nu skilld, si-skilld and unskilld js, and this has

takn n an incasing plitical as wll as cnic iptanc

lat. Th ac-cnic cts th dlpnt

th wind pw sct as wll as th nwal ngy sct

as a whl is incasingly a act in plitical dcisin akingaut u utu ngy chics.

A nu natinal and ginal assssnts plynt

in th wind industy ha n caid ut aund th

wld in cnt yas, althugh th is n cphnsi

authitati gund-up assssnt. Th assuptin w

ha ad and cntinu t ak, which is id y such

studis as d xist, is that y nw gawatt capacity

installd in a cunty in a gin ya, 14 psn/yas

plynt is catd thugh anuactuing, cpnnt

supply, wind a dlpnt, cnstuctin, tansptatin,

tc. Whil th is ginal aiatin, this ss t wk as

a glal aag. As pductin pcsss a ptiisd, wpjct that this ll will dcas t 13 psn/yas

plynt p nw gawatt installd y 00, and t 1

psn/yas plynt y 030.

In additin, 0.33 psn/yas plynt a judgd t

ndd patins and aintnanc wk at xisting

wind as.

Und ths assuptins, and n th asis xisting studis,

th industy cuntly plys aut 650,000 ppl, as th nd 011. Und th IeA Nw Plicis scnai, this

nu wuld stay ughly th sa thughut th cunt

dcad, and is t just 700,000 js y 030.

In th GWeo mdat scnai, a y dint pictu

gs, with plynt lls ising t 875,000 y

015, 1. illin y 00, and t than 1.7 illin y

030.

In th GWeo Adancd scnai, plynt wuld nd t

than dul y 015, nding th dcad with than

.1 illin js, which wuld is t .6 illin in 030.

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invEstmEnt And EmpLOymEnt (AnnuAL instALLAtiOn in mW)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000 MW/year


Moderate scenario

Advanced scenario

011 015 00 030

nw p

Annual Installation MW 40,594 43,516 35,695 33,55

Cost / kW 1,50 1,59 1,58 1,17

Investment billion /year 50,74 54,05 45,03 4,49

Employment job/year 646,751 740,513 657,651 705,503

m


Cost / kW 1,50 1,1 1,173 1,1

Investment billion /year 50,74 64,74 88,99 11,09

Employment job/year 646,751 878,083 1,13,359 1,68,633

a


Cost / kW 1,50 1,168 1,135 1,119

Investment billion /year 50,74 118,79 15,14 166,

Employment job/year 646,751 1,599,173 ,1,81 ,60,369

CArBOn diOxidE sAvinGs

Wind pw has any ninntal nts, including

th liinatin lcal ai pllutin and naly z wat

cnsuptin. Hw, th gatst nt is wind pws

cntiutin t ductin can dixid issins

th pw sct, which is th singl lagst anthpgnic

cntiut t th glal cliat chang pl.

mdn wind ngy tchnlgy has an xtly gd

ngy alanc. All th Co2 issins latd t th

anuactuing, installatin, sicing and dcissining

a tuin a gnally paid ack at th st 3 t 9

nths patin. F th st its 0 ya dsign liti,th tuin pats withut pducing any th haul

gnhus gass which a alady disupting li n ath.

Th nt taind wind pw in latin t Co2

issins dpnds ntily n what st pw plant it

displacs. I it displacs hyd nucla pw, th nt

is sall; ut i it placs cal gas, thn th nt is

nus. eissins ssil ul plants ang

aund 500g Co2/kWh up t 100g Co2/kWh

th ditist uls. on th asis th cunt lcticity

distiutin, w ha calculatd that 600g Co2/kWh is a

gd aag nu t chaactiz th saings gnatd

y wind pw, althugh th ginal aiatins will

signicant. Whil th ajity th xisting plant is in gins

which ay slightly lw than that nu, th ajity nw installatins, paticulaly in Asia, a in gins which

a uch high.

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Annual ductins in Co2 xisting wind pw plant

was aut 350 illin tnns in 011. Und th IeA NwPlicis scnai, this is xpctd t is t 863 illin tnns

annually y 00 and up t 1447 tnns p ya y 030.

Th GWeo mdat scnai iplis saings

1.1 illin tnns Co2/annu y 00 and than

.5 illin tnns y 030; whil th GWeo Adancd

scnai wuld sult in saings naly 1.7 illin tnns

Co2 p ya y 00, and just 4 illin tnns/annu

y 030.

In cuulati ts, th IeA Nw Plicis scnai has

wind pw saing naly 6.1 illin tnns y 00, and

17.5 tnns y 030. Th GWeo mdat scnai sultsin naly 7 illin tnns in cuulati saings y 00, and

just 5 illin tnns Co2 saings in 030. Th GWeo

Adancd scnai yilds Co2 saings 9.5 illin tnns

p ya in 00, and 37.5 illin tnns y 030.

Ths a signicant ductins in all cass, ut th citical

issu h is nt just th ttal lu ductins, ut th

spd at which ths saings a achid, as ths a lng-

lid gass, and th ipati is aly Co2 issins

ductins t achi th gatst nt th atsph.

Wind pws scalaility and its spd dplynt aks

it an idal tchnlgy t ing aut th aly issins

ductins which a quid i w a t kp th windw

pn kping glal an tpatu is t C lss

a p-industial lls.

Azuchi oshia wind a, Nagasaki, Japan M&D Greenenergy Co. Ltd

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Ann uAL CO2 E missiOns rEd uCtiO ns

2030202020152011


Moderate scenario

Advanced scenario

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000 mio tons CO

CumuLAtivE CO2 EmissiOns rEduCtiOns


Advanced scenario

Moderate scenario

2011 2015 2020 2030

mio tons CO

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Ann uAL And CumuLAt ivE C O2 Emi ssiOns rEd uCtiO ns

011 015 00 030

nw p

Annual CO2 savings million tons 350 586 863 1,447

Cumulative CO2 savings million tons 1,368 ,316 6,095 17,5

m

Annual CO2 savings million tons 350 66 1,118 ,550


a Annual CO2 savings million tons 350 781 1,69 4,007


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rEsEArCh BACkGrOund

ThE GERmAn AEROSpACE CEnTER

Th Gan Aspac Cnt (Dutschs Zntu Lut-

und rauaht DLr) is th lagst ngining sach

ganisatin in Gany. It spcialiss, ang th things, in

th dlpnt sla thal pw statin tchnlgis,

th utilisatin lw and high tpatu ul clls,

paticulaly lcticity gnatin, and sach int th

dlpnt high cincy gas and sta tuin pw

plants.

Th Institut Tchnical Thdynaics at DLr (DLr-ITT) is

acti in th ld nwal ngy sach and tchnlgy

dlpnt cint and lw issin ngy cnsin

and utilisatin. Wking in c-patin with th DLr

instituts, industy and unisitis, its sach cuss n

sling ky pls in lctchical ngy tchnlgy

and sla ngy cnsin. This ncpasss applicatin-

intd sach, dlpnt laaty and pttyp

dls as was dsign and patin dnstatin plants.

Syst analysis and tchnlgy assssnt suppts th

ppaatin statgic dcisins in th ld sach and

ngy plicy.

Within DLr-ITT, th Syst Analysis and Tchnlgy

Assssnt Diisin has lng t xpinc in thassssnt nwal ngy tchnlgis. Its ain

sach actiitis a in th ld tchn-cnic

utilisatin and syst analysis, lading t th dlpnt

statgis th akt intductin and dissinatin

nw tchnlgis, ainly in th ngy and tanspt scts.

SCEnARIO b ACKGROund

DLr was cissind y th eupan rnwal engy

Cuncil and Gnpac intnatinal t cnduct th study

engy [r]lutin: A sustainal glal ngy utlk,

dlping glal sustainal ngy pathways up t 050.1

This study was st pulishd in Januay 007 and has n

updatd sal tis sinc thn, st cntly in 01. It

lays ut ngy scnais that a signicantly lw than

cunt lls, and within th ang scnais cnsistnt

with a C tagt.

Intgal t th analsyis was an xainatin th utuptntial nwal ngy sucs, including wind ngy.

In cllaatin with th wind industy, th study lks at

ginal pjctins wind pw aund th wld, and it

is this wk which s th asis th Glal Wind engy

outlk scnais.

Th ngy supply scnais usd in this pt, which th

xtnd ynd and nhanc pjctins y th Intnatinal

engy Agncy, ha n calculatd using th meSAP/PlaNt

siulatin dl y DLr cing all 10 wld gins as

dlinatd y th IeA. This dl has thn n dlpd

in cpatin with an ngy cincy study iginally

dlpd y th ecys cnsultancy t tak int accunt th

utu ptntial ngy cincy asus, ynd ths

nisagd in th Wld engy outlk.

EnERGy EFFICIEnCy STudy

Th ai th iginal ecys ngy cincy study3

dlpd th engy [r]lutin scnai was t dlp

lw ngy dand scnais th pid 007 t

050 n a sctal asis th IeA gins as dnd in th

Wld engy outlk sis. engy dand was diidd

int lcticity and uls. Th scts which w xaind

w industy, tanspt and th cnsus, includinghushlds and sics.

This study has nw n updatd y sachs at th

Unisity Utcht4, aintaining th sa paats as

th st study. Th study includs th iplntatin

st pactic xisting tchnlgis and a ctain sha nw

cincy tchnlgis, whil using th sa assuptins

ppulatin and GDP gwth th pid as th IeA, and

assuing n stuctual cnic changs ynd ths in

th IeA scnai. Th uptak -ility at 00 is als

includd in th study.

Whil aintaining th sa ll ct and standad

liing, and withut standing assts, i.., nt including

tiing incint assts th nd thi cnic li,

th study cncluds that saings up t 36% can ad

in lcticity us, and up t 8% in ul cnsuptin. Whil

nwh na th tchnical ptntial ngy cincy and

ngy saings, th study shws th nus ptntial

issins ductins d y such asus, which wuld

an ssntial pat any sius ts t tackl cliat

chang.

1 Krewitt W, Simon S, Graus W, Teske S, Zervos A, Schaeer , The 2 degrees C scenario Asustainable world energy perspective; Energy Policy, Vol 35, No. 10, 4969-4980, 2007;and Teske S, Pregger R, Simon S, Naegler T, Graus W, Lins C, Energy [R]evolution 2010asustainable world energy outlook, Energy Efciency, DOI 10.1007/s12053-010-9098-y

2 See http://www.energyblueprint.ino

3 www.energyblueprint.ino/1211.0.html4 http://www.energyblueprint.ino/fleadmin/media/documents/2012/UU_Demand_pro-

jections_or_energy_revolution_2012_30-3-12.pd

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thE GLOBAL Wind EnErGy OutLOOk sCEnAriOs 2Hs Hllw wind a, Txas Wind Power Works

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Global Wind EnErGy outlook | 2012


OECd nOrth AmEriCA

t mW

010 011 015 00 030nw p 44,707 5,753 85,61 11,38 18,354

m 44,707 5,753 91,314 155,08 96,705

a 44,707 5,753 10,7 90,805 665,938

OECd EurOpE

t mW

010 011 015 00 030nw p 84,965 94,38 150,169 11,319 88,333

m 84,965 94,38 137,818 11,76 371,67

a 84,965 94,38 161,600 6,797 396,78

Eu 27

t mW

010 011 015 00 030

nw p 84,34 93,947 149,6 07,46 80,4

m 84,34 93,947 133,855 10,70 381,1

a 84,34 93,947 160,986 63,0 398,55

LAtin AmEriCA

t mW

010 011 015 00 030

nw p 1,489 ,330 4,34 6,41 13,868

m 1,489 ,330 9,96 1,903 56,075

a 1,489 ,330 15,303 47,970 134,411

dEFinitiOn OF iEA rEGiOns

OECd EuROpE Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, theNetherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UnitedKingdom

EASTERn EuROpE/EuRASIA Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia-Herzegovina

Eu 27 Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France,Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland,Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom

OECd nORTh AmERICA Canada, Mexico, United States

OECd pacifc Australia, Japan, Korea (South), New Zealand

Iia India

nOn-OECd ASIA Aghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, Chinese Taipei, CookIslands, East Timor, Fiji, French Polynesia, Indonesia, Kiribati, Democratic Peoples Republic o Korea,Laos, Macao, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, New Caledonia, Pakistan, Papua NewGuinea, Philippines, Samoa, Singapore, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Tonga, Vietnam,Vanuatu

mIddlE EAST Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia,Syria, United Arab Emirates, Yemen

AFRICA Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, CentralArican Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo, Democratic Republic o Congo, Cote dIvoire, Djibouti, Egypt,Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Lesotho,Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia,Niger, Nigeria, Reunion, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, S eychelles, Sierra Leone, Somalia,

South Arica, Sudan, Swaziland, United Republic o Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, Zambia,Zimbabwe

ChInA Peoples Republic o China including Hong Kong

TRAnSITIOn ECOnOmIES Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Serbia and Montenegro, the ormerRepublic o Macedonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Romania,Russia, Slovenia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Cyprus 1, Malta 1

lATIn AmERICA Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Argentina, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize,Bermuda, Bolivia, Brazil, the British Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica,Cuba, Dominica, the D ominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, the Falkland Islands, French Guyana,Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Martinique, Montserrat,Netherlands Antilles, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, St. Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Pierreet Miquelon, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, the Turks and CaicosIslands, Uruguay and Venezuela

AFriCA

t mW

010 011 015 00 030

nw p 976 1,04 ,487 5,37 10,789

m 976 1,04 5,81 19,07 64,336

a 976 1,04 8,987 8,117 8,97

WOrLd mAp: rEGiOnAL BrEAkdOWn OF CumuLAtivE CApACity up tO 2030

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EAstErn EurOpE/EurAsiA

t mW

010 011 015 00 030nw p 1,355 ,90 4,769 7,44 17,71

m 1,355 ,90 4,17 10,383 70,374

a 1,355 ,90 9,363 3,369 104,707

ChinA

t mW

010 011 015 00 030nw p 44,733 6,364 114,001 179,498 79,017

m 44,733 6,364 15,835 14,445 400,130

a 44,733 6,364 134,687 30,91 499,614

nOn-OECd AsiA

t mW

010 011 015 00 030

nw p 606 67 ,879 6,375 1,

m 606 67 5,407 7,083 119,476

a 606 67 18,83 90,768 50,34

OECd pACiFiC

t mW

010 011 015 00 030

nw p 5,069 5,755 9,053 14,01 7,109

m 5,069 5,755 13,841 38,53 97,715

a 5,069 5,755 4,18 74,70 177,690

indiA

t mW

010 011 015 00 030

nw p 13,065 16,084 3,784 3,933 66,400

m 13,065 16,084 31,499 59,351 14,86

a 13,065 16,084 37,436 89,99 191,711

middLE EAst

t mW

010 011 015 00 030

nw p 99 99 1,116 ,317 11,436

m 99 99 198 ,150 16,181

a 99 99 58 ,180 37,04

GLOBAL tOtAL

t c mW

010 011 015 00 030

nw p 197,081 37,699 397,859 586,79 917,798

m 197,081 37,699 45,155 759,349 1,617,444

a 197,081 37,699 530,945 1,149,919 ,541,135

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China Greenpeace China

3 | rEGiOnAL sCEnAriO

rEsuLts

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rEGiOnAL sCEnAriO rEsuLts 3

AFriCA

tOtAL Wind pOWEr CApACity in mW

MWNew Policies scenario Moderate scenario Advanced scenario

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

010 011 015 00 030

nw 976 MW 1,04 MW ,487 MW 5,37 MW 10,789 MW

m 976 MW 1,04 MW 5,81 MW 19,07 MW 64,336 MW

a 976 MW 1,04 MW 8,987 MW 8,117 MW 8,97 MW

rcgnizing th iptanc ngy sustainal

dlpnt, th Unitd Natins Gnal Assly

dsignatd 01 as th Intnatinal Ya Sustainal

engy All. Tday, 1.4 illin ppl still d nt ha accsst dn ngy, whil 3 illin ly n taditinal iass

and cal as thi ain ul sucs. m than 95% th

ppl withut accss t dn ngy sics a liing

ith in Su-Sahaan Aica Dlping Asia1 .

This pl is spcially acut in pi-uan and ual aas in

Su-Sahaan Aica. In any Aican cuntis, th lcticity

that is aailal is likly t gnatd y disl gnats

th sall-scal plant, tn using xpnsi iptd

ul. m sall gnats kp indiidual usinsss,

hspitals and hushlds unning. Th high cst lying n

iptd uls has a gat ipact n s Aican cuntiscnis, and any th spnd a cnsidal sha

thi scac ign xchang ss n ngy ipts.

Lcal, natinal ginal gids wh thy d xist

a challngd y th incasing dand cnsu

quipnt such as igats, lighting, il phns, Tvs

and cputs; and utags a qunt. In any cuntis,

it ss that th pisin a stal supply lctic

pw is ith nt a gnnt piity, is a piity that

cnficts with th pssing issus such as pisin clan

wat, ducatin and halth ca.

Lag-scal pw pductin in uch Aica is liklyt an lag hyd (as und in egypt) th cal-asd

gnatin that chaactizs Suth Aicas pw syst.

Gin Aicas ast land ass and latily lw ppulatin

dnsity, it ss likly that a ad ix dcntalizd

tchnlgis will ha th fxiility t t th nds

any th cuntis n th cntinnt. Wind pw, caus

its scalaility, can and is ginning t play a ky l in thdcntalizd and cntalizd systs.

Aicas wind suc is st aund th casts and in th

astn highlands, ut it is in Nth Aica that wind pw

has n dlpd at scal. This, t, is wh cunt

natinal plicis a st t gw th sct uth. At th nd

011, 98% th cntinnts ttal wind installatins

just 993 mW w t und acss u cuntis -

egypt (550 mW), mcc (91 mW), Tunisia (114 mW) and

Cap vd (4 mW).

EGypT

In Fuay 008, egypts Sup Cuncil engy appd

a plan t pduc 0% its lctic pw rnwal

sucs y 00. This tagt includs a 1% cntiutin

wind ngy, which tanslats int than 7 GW gid-

cnnctd wind pw.

egypts st-dlpd wind gin s a is th Zaaana

distict, with aag wind spds in th aa 9 /s. Th

pjct cnsists a sis linkd wind as, th st

which statd cnstuctin in 001. In 010, Zaaana wind

as ttal capacity achd 550 mW. It is wnd and

patd y th egyptian Nw & rnwal engy Authity.

1 www.sustainableenergyorall.org

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3 rEGiOnAL sCEnAriO rEsuLts

Du t pailing plitical cnditins, 011 and 01 ha

sn n nw pjct dlpnt acss th cunty.

Hw nc th is incasd plitical ctainty pcidy th inst cunity, 7 GW wind pw culd

ptntially dlpd y 00.

mOROCCO

Th mccan gnnt, und th intgatd mccan

Wind Pw Plan, has st a tagt installing ,000 mW

wind ngy y 00 a daatic incas th xisting

91 mW at th nd 011. mcc has xcllnt wind

sucs alng naly its nti castlin, as wll as inland

na th Atlas muntains.

In 01, th mccan gnnt initd ids

intstd patis an 850 mW pjct. Th pjct cnsists

wind as that will stuctud und a build

own opat Tans sch thugh a pulic-piat

patnship dl. Th nal tnd is likly t launchd in

th uth quat 01.

SOuTh AFRICA

Suth Aica is idally suitd wind pw dlpnt,

gin its aundant wind sucs, apl suital sits and

dn high ltag lctical inastuctu. Hw its

lcticity akt cntinus t ac nuus challngs. Thcunt lcticity syst, which is piaily asd n cal,

sus lw s agins. Cunt pw gnatin

inastuctu is nw aly adquat t t dand, and

stat utility esk stiats that Suth Aica nds t

cnstuct 40 GW nw gnating capacity y 05, aut

1.5 GW which is alady und cnstuctin.

Th Suth Aican Wind ngy Assciatin (SAWeA)

stiats that with th ight plicy awk, wind pw

culd pid as uch as 0% th cuntys ngy

dand y 05, tanslating int 30,000 mW installd

wind capacity. by th nd 011, nly 8.4 mW capacitywas in patin.

In Dc 011, Suth Aica annuncd th pd

idds th st und und th rbid Pga. Wind

ngy gand 630mW in th st und ut a ttal

1,450 mW nwal ngy.

Th scnd und winns w annuncd in may 01,

with an additin 56 mW awadd t wind, and a thid

und is xpctd in th st hal 013. This is in within th

awk Suth Aicas plan than 9,000 mW

wind pw y 030.

Hw th awk cnditins (th in ts plicy

and akt stuctu) a nt cnduci t ast wind pw

dlpnt, as sal issus ain unsld. on ths cncns th act that th tically intgatd stat

utility esk cntls gnatin (which is piaily asd

n cal), tansissin and supply lcticity acss th

cunty, aking it dicult indpndnt pw pducs

t accss th akt.

EAST AFRICA

Th ha cntly n dlpnts in ast Aica with a

50 mW pjct cpltd in ethipia and a 300 mW pjct

und dlpnt in Knya. Hpully ths aly pjcts

will ak a sustantial cntiutin t th ttal gnating

capacity in ach ths cuntis. I succssul, thy will

hald a uch ad uptak wind n th cntinnt in th

cing yas.

ThE GWEO SCEnARIOS FOR AFRICA

Gin Aicas ast ptntial wind pw dlpnt,

spcially in th Nth, alng th th casts, and in Suth

Aica, th GWeo scnais di sustantially ths

psntd y th IeA.

Und IeAs Nw Plicis scnai (NPS), wind pw capacity

will ach 5.3 GW y 00, and this wuld incas t10.7 GW y 030 n th nti Aican cntinnt, pducing

13 TWh in 00 and cls t 8 TWh in 030. This wuld

cat twn 9,000 and 15,000 js.

Th GWeo scnais, hw, a cnsidaly

ptiistic. Und th mdat scnai, wind pw wuld

dli naly u tis as uch pw y 00 as th

IeAs NPS casts, with an installd capacity 19 GW

gnating 47 TWh y ya. This wuld thn gw y

4,000 - 6,000 mW y ya up t 030, whn just und

68 GW wuld installd, pducing 178 TWh

clan lcticity Aica. This wuld nt nly hlp thcntinnts lcticatin and ngy indpndnc, ut als

its cnis; than 3.58 illin wuld instd

in wind pw y ya y 00, and this wuld incas

t 6.4 illin annually y 030; and twn 44,000-

101,000 nw js wuld catd.

Th Adancd scnai assus that n t will

takn t xplit Aicas wind sucs. It shws hw, y

00, cls t 8 GW wind pw capacity culd pduc

69 TWh lcticity, gwing t alst 83 GW pducing

5 TWh lcticity y 030. Wind pw wuld thn

al t play a ky l in dlping a sustainal ngy

utu, lading t a saings 41 illin tns Co2y ya y 00 and 135 illin tns y 030,

claning th ai and incasing ngy scuity at th sa

ti.2 http://www.one.org.ma/

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ecnically, t, this dlpnt culd ha a sustantial

ipact in Aicas wind ich natins. With annual instnts

t th d 5 illin in 00 and cls t 7 illinin 030, wind pw culd gw t c a cnsidal

industy in Aica. Th dlpnt lcal anuactuing

acilitis wuld pid thusands high quality js

ppl acss th cntinnt, and th aidd csts

iptd ul wuld ha a y psiti ct n thsnatins ign xchang.

ChinA



0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

010 011 015 00 030

nw 44,733 MW 6,364 MW 114,001 MW 179,498 MW 79,017 MW

m 44,733 MW 6,364 MW 15,835 MW 14,445 MW 400,130 MW

a 44,733 MW 6,364 MW 134,687 MW 30,91 MW 499,614 MW

In 011, th nw annual installd wind pw capacity in China

(xcluding Hng Kng, maca and Taiwan) was an astnishing

17.63GW. In 011, wind pw gnatd 71.5 illin kWh,

accunting 1.5% natinal pw gnatin. by th nd

011, th cuulati installd capacity natinwid was

6 GW, with China aintaining its lad glally in ts

installd wind pw capacity.

by th nd 011, thity Chins pincs, citis and

autnus gins (xcluding Hng Kng, maca and

Taiwan) had thi wn wind as. Th Inn mnglia

Autnus rgin aind th lad Chinas wind

pw dlpnt sty, haing a cuulati installd

capacity 17.5 GW, llwd y Hi, Gansu and

Lianing, ach haing a cuulati installd capacity

5 GW. oall than 10 pincs had a cuulati

installd wind pw capacity 1 GW, including 9

pincs with a capacity GW ach.

Th astnishing gwth Chinas wind sct sinc 006

has anagd t supis n any ptiists in th industy.Industy analysts li that th Chins wind pw akt

is nw ginning t nt a stady dlpnt and

nnt stag.

Th phnnal gwth in th Chins wind ngy akt

has utstippd th aility th gid and syst pats t

anag it. Cutailnt lcticity gnatin has c

a nw challng wind pw pjcts. In 011, than

10 illin kWh wind pw was lst caus th gid had ncapacity t as it3 .

pOlICy FRAmEWORK And OFFICIAl TARGETS FOR WInd

EnERGy

01 was th scnd ya th twlth Fi-Ya plan (011-

015). ealy in 011, th Natinal engy Adinistatin

(NeA) lasd th 1th Fi-Ya plan nwal ngy.

This includs a tagt 100 GW wind y 015, cnsisting

70 GW th lag Wind bas pga, 30 GW

sall pjcts, and an additinal 5 GW sh wind.

3 China Wind Energy Outlook, 2012 www.gwec.net

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REGIOnAl GROWTh

Th unpcdntd gwth xpincd y Chinas windindusty th past sn yas has n din ainly

y natinal nwal ngy plicis, as wll as y

acti paticipatin in th UNFCCCs Clan Dlpnt

mchanis. Hw sinc th ginning th 1th Fi-

Ya Plan pid (011-015), th NeA has ptd th

cncpt cusing n th cntalizd and dcntalizd

dlpnt, supptd y cspnding adinistati

asus. As a sult this guidanc th cntal

gnnt, inland gins gan t plan wind pw

dlpnt pjcts accding t lcal cnditins, thy

pning up pptunitis id and sall-sizd wind pw

instnt ntpiss.

TRAnSmISSIOn

Chinas st wind sucs a ainly distiutd in th

th nthn gins (nthast, nth and nthwst), ut

lctical lads a ainly distiutd in castal gins and

in th suth. In China, th gid inastuctu is ping t

a sius issu, spcially in aas with high wind spds. This

pl has th institutinal and tchnlgical aspcts.

Th China Wind Pw Cnstuctin rsults Statistics and

Assssnt rpt: 011 pidd data and analysis

th cutailnt situatin in 011. Accding t its analysis 584 wind as in th th nthn gins, east Inn

mnglia and Jilin w th aas in which cutailnt was

th st s, with a cutailnt at 0% ttal

gnatin. Th cutailnt pls in Wst Inn mnglia,

Gansu and Hilngjiang w als quit s, with a at

10%.

Thugh und th xisting lgislatin gid cpanis a

ligd t uy pw gnatd nwal sucs,

th a n pnaltis nn-cplianc with this pisin,and n cpnsatin is paid t wind a pats th

lsss thy incu whn ailing t sll thi pw. Th lack

sucint tansissin capacity discuags gid pats

accpting wind pw int th gid.

oall, hw, th is n dut that gin th nd

ulling th cuntys gwing cny, intcnncts

twn aas with high wind pw utput and aas with

high pw dand will uilt in th cing yas.

In additin, a nu cnt incidnts ha ld t th

intductin a gid cd, alng with 17 th tchnical

standads th industy. Th ast ajity anuactus

nw quip thi tuins with lw ltag id-thugh

capaility (LvrT), and this is nw a quint, alng with

th asus t nsu sth gid intgatin, cti

as 1 Jun 01.

Anth nw initiati intducd was th Wind Fa

Dlpnt and managnt Inti ruls and

rgulatins. Ang th things, th gulatins stat that

wind as cannt stat cnstuctin th appal

pcss is cpltly nishd, th pjct will nt

gantd th d-in tai and gid accss. In additin, all wind

as a nw quid t ha a al aluatin n yaat ginning patin, and all panc data nds

t ptd. Th jcti is t ha cntl

th quality th pjcts, ath than ly ncuaging

quantity.

Th scnd plicy gat iptanc put wad y th

NeA was t ncuag th dlpnt wind as in

lw wind spd gins cls t lad cnts. Up until

nw, th phasis has n n th wind as ga-pjcts,

which a lcatd piaily in t gins and nd aj

tansissin upgads t tanspt th pw t lad cnts.

Th NeA and Stat Gid a wking t sl th tansissinttlncks and th gid issus. In th anti, hw,

th NeA is actily ncuaging wind a dlpnt in

lw wind zns cls t th lad cnts, which will ha

th addd nt ncuaging anuactus t dlp

sphisticatd achins with lng lads and tall

tws t xtact th axiu ngy lw spd

winds.

OFFShORE WInd dEvElOpmEnT

by th nd 011, th cuulati installd sh capacity

in China was 58.4 mW, which placd it in th thid spt

glally hind th U.K. and Dnak. Accding t th 1thFi-Ya Plan [011-015] th NeA, it is xpctd that

y 015 China will ha uilt 5 GW sh wind pw

and will ha dlpd a supply chain t t its shXia Yan Kau Wind Fa, China Wind Power Works

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dlpnt nds. At 015, th Chins akt is likly

t nt a lag-scal dlpnt phas, with a tagt

30 GW sh installatins y 00.

As th nd 011, th sh wind pw planning

Shanghai, Jiangsu, Shandng, Hi, Zhjiang and

Guangdng had alady n cpltd. Th sh wind

pw planning Dalian in Lianing Pinc as wll as

pincs such as Fujian, Guangxi and Hainan a still und

dlpnt. Th cpltd pliinay plans idntid an

xplital sh wind ptntial 43 GW. Cuntly, th

a alady 38 pjcts 16.5 GW that a in aly stag

dlpnt.

In 011 th NeA ppad a pt n Iplntatin

ruls th Inti masus th managnt

Dlpnt and Cnstuctin osh Wind Pw, as

a supplnt t its ali pt Inti masus th

managnt Dlpnt and Cnstuctin osh

Wind Pw issud in 010, which was jintly pulishd

with th Stat ocanic Adinistatin. This pt pids

spcic pisins gading dlpnt issus; aius

quints duing sh wind a planning including

p-asiility study and its stags and claly dn th dutis

indiidual ls ach th anaging dpatnts.

m, ths pts laid ut quints gading

th cnstuctin and patin sh wind as. Thuls xpssly spcid that sh wind as ust, in

pincipl, dplyd in castal aas that a at last 10k

th cast and wh th sawat dpth is at last 10;

and that such lcatins ust aid sa-us cnficts twn

cpting intsts. Th iplntatin ths plicis has

incasd th diculty dlping sh wind pw and

cd all 4 sh wind pw pjcts tndd in 010 t

lcat, a y xpnsi undtaking which undscs th

nd planning cdinatin twn dint gnnt

agncis i th lng-t tagts a t t.

STATE InvESTmEnT In WInd

Sal lag stat wnd ntpiss a still th aj

plays in Chinas wind dlpnt, with cls t 90%

all wind pw pjcts cnstuctd and cpltd haing

instnts y ths cpatins. by th nd 011, a

ttal s 700 stat-wnd ntpiss natinwid had

instd in wind a cnstuctin, and d a cuulati

gid-cnnctd capacity 37.98 GW, accunting 79

% th cuntys ttal gid-cnnctd wind capacity.

Futh in an t t stngthn its rnwal engy

Dlpnt Fund, th ministy Financ, NDrC and NeA

jintly issud guidlins in 011 t incas th nwalngy lcticity pic suchag rmb 0.4 cnts/kWh

tday t 0.8 cnts/kWh. Lastly, th China Dlpnt bank

is n th lagst lnds nwal ngy pjcts

th dstically and intnatinally. In 010 aln its

lnding ptli wind pjcts was $600 illin. As

cntly as Spt 01, a bitish piat quity cpanyTa Fia was planning t st up a nwal ngy und

with th China Dlpnt bank. Th und is st t in th

$3-5 illin ang4 .

ThE GWEO SCEnARIOS FOR ChInA

In u pius outlk, pulishd in 010, th 00

pjctins ttal installd capacity in China w 70 GW

und th rnc scnai, 00 GW und th mdat

gwth scnai, and 50 GW und th Adancd gwth

scnai. Pjctins cuulati capacity in 010

w 3 GW (rnc), 39 GW (mdat) and 41 GW

(Adancd). Hw y th nd 010 Chinas ttal

installd capacity had alady achd 44.7 GW, and 6.3 GW

y th nd 011. I 01 ss th sa ll nw uild as

011; China will ha cls t 80 GW wind pw installd

y th nd this ya.

With ths dlpnts in ind, th scnais psntd in

this pt ha n updatd adically, whil th IeAs Nw

Plicis scnai ains ath pssiistic.

In th Nw Plicis scnai, th Chins wind ngy akt

will xpinc a cnsidal dcas in th at annual

installatins lading t a ttal installd capacity 179 GWy 00, which is signicantly lw than th uncial

cnsati Chins tagt 00 GW y 00.

This slup in th akt wuld ha a daatic ct n

instnt and js in China, with instnt gus dpping

th cunt .6 illin p ya t 15.9 illin y 015,

and plynt pluting an stiatd 63,000-

301,000 js t nly 10,000 in this tia.

Gin th Chins gnnts citnt t dlping

its wind sucs, th GWeo mdat scnai ss a

alistic cntinuatin wind pw gwth in China,with annual installatins incasing th cunt 17.6 GW

t 18.5 GW y 00. by 015, th ttal installd capacity

wuld is t ach 15 GW, and this wuld gw t 14 GW

y 00 and 400 GW y 030.

As a sult, 3 illin wuld instd in Chins wind

dlpnt y ya y 00. eplynt in th sct

wuld gw th cuntly stiatd 60,000 js t

ach cls t 31,000 y 00 and 355,000 y 030.

4 http://www.windpowermonthly.com/news/1154028/China-Development-Bank-build-und-UK-private-equity-co/

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Th GWeo Adancd scnai shws that wind dlpnt

in China culd g n uth, aching a ttal installd

capacity 134 GW y 015 and 30 GW y 00. This wuldgw t ach alst 500 GW y 030, with annual akts

gwing t 33 GW that pid.

This kind y lag-scal dplynt wind ngy wuld

ntail signicant cnic and ninntal nts

th wlds st ppulus cunty. by gnating 330 TWh

clan lcticity in 015, wind pw wuld stat t ak up a

cnsidal sha Chinas all pw dand, and this

wuld gw t 566 TWh y 00 and as uch as 1,313 TWh

y 030.

Such dlpnt wuld als sult in than 39 illin

instnt fwing int th Chins wind sct y ya

y 030, which wuld g alng with a duling th wind

sct wk c th cunt stiats 67,000 t

ach cls t 560,000 js in this tia.

And, last ut nt last, xpliting th cuntys wind

sucs t this ll wuld signicantly ip Chinas

can issins alanc. by 015, wind pw wuld hlp

sa 198 illin tns Co2 y ya, and this gu wuld

gw t 788 illin tns y 030.

Hw, in d China t ully xplit th cnic and

ninntal nts that wind pw can , ctain

aining stacls nd t addssd. This cncns th

issu gid inastuctu t nt nly accdat

incasing aunts wind pw in th natinal lcticity

gid ut als t uild tansissin lins th windy ut

tn t gins t ppulatin and industy cnts.

EAstErn EurOpE/EurAsiA



0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

010 011 015 00 030

nw 1,355 MW ,90 MW 4,769 MW 7,44 MW 17,71 MW

m 1,355 MW ,90 MW 4,17 MW 10,383 MW 70,374 MW

a 1,355 MW ,90 MW 9,363 MW 3,369 MW 104,707 MW

This IeA gin angs nw eupan Unin s

such as th baltic stats, malta and Cypus, thugh bsnia

and Hzgina, Catia, Sia, Slnia, rania and

bulgaia and thn astwads int russia and Ukain, and

nally suth-astwads int th Cntal Asian cuntis th

Sit Unin.

Th gup cs pundly dis cnis and pw

systs. S cuntis, such as Tuknistan Azaijan,ha assi ss il and gas; ths, such as Tajikistan

and Alania t thi pw nds alst ntily

hydpw, whil s cuntis ha t ipt lcticity

ul th. Hw th gins ngy cny is

dinatd y russia, which als is th wlds uth lagst

pw gnat, hind th US, China, and Japan5 .

All ths aas ha n assssd t s xtnt thi

nwal ngy ptntial, and uch this ast eastn

eup/euasian landass has xcllnt wind sucs6 .T

dat, th ain wind dlpnts ha n in ths astn

5 Much o the inormation in this chapter is derived rom the EBRDs Renewable DevelopmentInitiative (www.ebrdr enewables.com)

6 3-Tier wind map www.3tier.com/en/support/resource-maps/

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eupan and baltic stats which ca s th

eupan Unin in 0047. Ths nw stats w

quid t apply th 001 eU nwals Dicti, and thiaccssin taty st natinal indicati tagts nwal

pw pductin ach stat. Thy a cus nw als

und y th eUs nw lgislatin 0% th lcs ngy

cnsuptin t c nwal sucs, which includ

a inding tagt ach cunty.

by 011 th was signicant wind pw capacity installd in

rania (98 mW), bulgaia (607 mW), Cypus (133.5 mW),

Ukain (151.1 mW) and th baltic stats lik Lithuania

(179 mW) and estnia (159.9 mW).

Anth di th intductin wind dlpnt

acss th eastn eup/euasia gin has n th

Jint Iplntatin chanis that s pat th

Kyt Ptcl. Und this aangnt, any Annx 1

(industializd) cunty can inst in issins ductin

pjcts in any th Annx 1 cunty as an altnati t

ducing its wn issins. This chanis was tagtd at

th s- calld tansitin cnis, ut as any ths

ha nw c eU s, th ain cus JI is nw

n russia and Ukain. In August 010, th w 30 wind

ngy pjcts in th JI piplin, ttaling an installd capacity

1,80 mW. Th lagst n ths, at 300 mW, is lcatd

in Ukain.

Roaia, which accding t th eU Dicti ust t

4% its ngy dand y nwals in 00, had

installd 91 mW wind pw at th nd 011, up

14 mW in 009. ranias 91 mW pating wind as

a ainly lcatd (97%) in Dga n th black Sa cast,

which asts aag wind spds 7 /s at 100 altituds.

Th nwal ngy law adptd in N 008 was

a aj stp wad wind dlpnt in rania,

intducing a gn cticat (GC) sch nwal

lcticity a pid 15 yas, as wll as lan guaants

and tax xptins nwal ngy instnts.

Th situatin in bgaria was cnsidd pising thugh

011. With a nwal ngy tagt 16% und th eU

Dicti, th cunty intducd aual plicis t

pt nwal ngy dlpnt, and wind pw

installatins ha n gwing cnsidaly in cnt yas,

with a ttal 607 mW pating at th nd 011. bulgaia

adptd th Law engy rnwal Sucs in may

011, which placd th Law rnwal and

Altnati engy Sucs and biuls. Whil this was lng

awaitd with xpctatin cla gulatins t inigat th

akt, th nw law actually hinds th dlpnt th

nwal ngy sct. With an andnt intducd in

01, th FIT t was ducd t 1 yas. Futh th tai

is xd th nti t (1 yas) nly at cnstuctin

th pjct is cpltd; and in Spt 01, th

bulgaian ngy gulat SWerC dcidd t cut tais

all xisting wind ngy pjcts y 10%8 .

Th batic States ha als statd t dlp wind pw,

with 159.9 mW installd capacity in estnia, 179 mW in

Lithuania and 31.3 mW in Latia at th nd 011. Und

th nw eU Dicti, ths cuntis ha inding tagts

ting 5%, 3% and 40% spctily thi ngynds with nwal sucs, and thy all ha signicant

wind sucs, spcially alng th castlins, which can g

a lng way twads achiing thi gals.

Rssia is n th tp pducs and cnsus lctic

pw in th wld, with than 0 illin kilwatts

installd gnatin capacity9. Hw nwal ngy

is nt yt n th nt russias plicy agnda. russia

pducs 67% its pw thal pw gnatin,

17% lag hyd plants and 16% nucla pw.

7 Note that some o these countries, such as Poland, are covered in the OECD Europe section

8 http://www.windpowermonthly.com/news/1150227/Warning-Bulgaria-cuts-wind-arm-taris/

9 http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cm?fps=RS

Gany Anja Gerseker/ GWEC

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russias assi ss gas, cal and il lad t a lw

cst ngy, which pss a challng th dlpnt

nwal ngy sucs. Hw, russia ds ha asignicant ptntial nwal ngy dlpnt, nt

last du t its siz and ggaphy. russia has hug ptntial

wind pw dlpnt, accding t th ebrD, with

th windist gins cncntatd alng th castlin, in th

stpps and in th untains, ainly in th Nth and Wst

th cunty. T dat, th dlpnt th wind sct

has n slw, with nly a littl 9 mW wind installd.

In Januay 009 th gnnt had st a tagt nwals

t supply 4.5% ngy dand y 00. In a syst as lag

as russias, this signid an additinal 5 GW nw nwal

ngy asd gnatin. Th w inti tagts 1.5% y

010, .5% y 015 cuntly nwals accunt lss

than 1% th ttal installd capacity. T add t that alst

th yas at th annuncnt th 4.5% tagt, th is

still n unctining gulaty awk at th natinal ll

t ak nwal ngy ccially ial10 .

ukraie als has a ast landass, has gd wind sucs

and a apidly dlping cny. Accding t ebrD

stiats, 40% th cuntys tity wuld

suital wind gnatin. Aut 5,000 mW wind pw

culd dlpd in th id-t, and as uch as 0-30%

th cuntys ttal lcticity dand culd t y

wind. In 1996, th Ukainian gnnt annuncd a tagt installing 00 mW y 010, ut y th nd 011 had

achd nly 151.1 mW.

Futh ast, sal cuntis including Kaaksta,

Trkeista, Aeraia and uekista ha aas

with xcllnt wind sucs, ut lag il and gas ss

ha t dat n a disincnti t any nwal ngy

dlpnt. Kazakhstan has hug wind ptntial, ut has

nt yt pctd gulatins t c nwal ngy

dlpnt. Cuntis with w ssil ul sucs, such

as Krgsta and Taikista ight pising

wind pw dlpnt in th sht and diu t, utn dlpnt has takn plac t dat.

ThE GWEO SCEnARIOS FOR EASTERn EuROpE/ EuRASIA

Apat th nw eU stats in this gin, which

a undtaking cnsidal ts t catch up in ts

nwal ngy dplynt, n signicant dlpnt

has takn plac in eastn eup/euasia. Pjctin th

installd wind pw capacity in th na and id-t

utu is paticulaly dicult h, as this will lagly dpnd

n plitical dcisins in s ky cuntis, spcially

russia and Ukain. I ths gnnts dcid t xplit

th tndus suc at thi dstp and pid th

ncssay incntis attacting insts, wind pwgnatin culd play a ky l in ulling ths gwing

cnis. Withut this plitical will, hw, th wind

akts will nt gin t ach thi ptntial.

Accding t th IeAs Nw Plicis scnai, this is xactly

what will happn. This scnai ss annual akts acss

th whl gin (including th nw eU stats)

dcas 791 mW in 011 t 548 mW y 015, and thn

is slightly t 573 mW y 00. This wuld sult in a ttal

installd capacity cls t 7.4 GW y 00 and 17 GW y

030, up und . GW in 011.

Such dlpnt wuld nt ha a aj ipact n

pw gnatin, cnic gwth issins saings

in ths cuntis. In 00, wind pw wuld pduc

45 TWh acss th nti gin cpad t an stiatd

lcticity cnsuptin 880 TWh in russia aln at that

ti and 1,500 TWh in th whl gin astn eup/

euasia. Instnt in wind quipnt wuld aunt t

aut 1.6 illin in 00, and plynt in th wind

sct wuld stand at aund 1,000 js y thn.

Th mdat scnai is slightly ptiistic, assuing

that th th eU stats and s th cuntis

with xisting nwal ngy tagts will t ths asplannd. This wuld sult in annual akts incasing naly

thitn ld twn 011 and 030, and aching than

9.3 GW y 030. Th installd capacity wuld thn stand at

10 GW in 00 and 70 GW y 030.

Th sulting nts pw gnatin and cliat

ptctin wuld sizal und this scnai. In

00, wind pw wuld pduc cls t 5 TWh clan

lcticity saing 15 illin tnns Co2, and this wuld

gw t 185 TWh y 030 saing 111 illin tnns Co2

annually. I w cnsid that th gins lcticity dand

is cast t ach 1,800 TWh y 030, thugh, th allsha wind pw in th lcticity syst wuld still

ath sall cpad t th gins in this scnai.

In ts instnt and js, th GWeo mdat scnai

gus wuld tanslat int instnts wth .9 illin in

00, cating appxiatly 30,000 js, and 9 illin in

030 with a wkc 135,000 ppl in th wind sct.

Th gus in th GWeo Adancd scnai a slightly high.

H, 3.3 GW wind pw wuld installd y 00,

pducing 79 TWh and saing 48 illin tns Co2. Annual

akts aund 5.4 GW in 00 wuld attact 5.8 illin

in instnt y ya, and this wuld incas t clst 8.9 GW y 030, which wuld tanslat int 9. illin

wth instnt in th sct. m than 141,000 ppl

wuld y thn wking in th ld wind ngy.10 RE Policy in Russia: Waking the Green Giant (IFC Russia RE Program, 2011)

http://bit.ly/QT9A2n

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indiA



0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

010 011 015 00 030

nw 13,065 MW 16,084 MW 3,784 MW 3,933 MW 66,400 MW

m 13,065 MW 16,084 MW 31,499 MW 59,351 MW 14,86 MW

a 13,065 MW 16,084 MW 37,436 MW 89,99 MW 191,711 MW

Indias apidly gwing cny and xpanding ppulatin

ak it hungy lctic pw. In spit aj capacity

additins cnt dcads, pw supply stuggls t kp

up with dand. elcticity shtags a cn, and asignicant pat th ppulatin has n accss t lcticity

at all. Indias lcticity dand is pjctd t than

tipl twn 005 and 030. Th IeA pdicts that y 00,

37 GW pw gnatin capacity will ndd, which

wuld iply th additin 16 GW p ya.

Indias wind industy had anth cd ya in 011,

installing than 3 GW nw capacity th st ti

t ach a ttal 16,084 mW. As Januay 01, nwal

ngy accuntd 1.1% ttal installd capacity, and

aut 6% lcticity gnatin, up % in 1995. Wind

pw accunts aut 70% this installd capacity.

Indias cnic plicy is asd n its Fi Ya Plans, and

its scal ya uns Apil t mach. In 011 th stat-un

Cnt Wind engy Tchnlgy assssd Indias wind

pw ptntial as 10,778 mW at 80 ts, up th

ali stiat appxiat 49,130 mW at 50 ts at

% land aailaility.

mARKET dEvElOpmEnTS

India intducd a rnwal engy Cticat (reC) akt

in 011, adding t th list aailal suppt chaniss

such as th Gnatin basd Incnti (a xd piu INr 0.5 p kWh). Th lus tadd in th reC akt ha

stadily incasd sinc tading statd in Fuay 011. Th

reC rgisty as oct 01 had issud 3,10,58 reCs,

and wind ad up appxiatly 56% this accditd

gnatin capacity.

Th akt claing pic ach reC angs twnINr 1,500 ( .8) t INr 3,900 (59.). Ths high lus

suggst that and Stats a lking t t thi

pscid rnwal Puchas oligatins thugh th reC

akt. This augus wll th wind pw akt in India.

At th nactnt th elcticity Act (003), th wind

sct has gistd a cpund annual gwth at

aut 8.8%. Th cntal and stat gnnts plicis

ha pidd plicy suppt th ign and lcal

instnt in nwal ngy tchnlgis. In 011,

India saw 7.76 illin instd in clan tchnlgy

which 3.4 illin was instd in wind ngy. This accuntd 4% th wlds clan tchnlgy instnts in 011

[GWeC, 011].

TARGETS

Th pt th su-gup wind pw dlpnt

appintd y th ministy Nw and rnwal engy t

dlp th appach pap th 1th Plan Pid (Apil

01 t mach 017) has xd a nc tagt 15,000 mW

in nw capacity additins, and an aspiatinal tagt

5,000 mW th nxt -ya pid. Iptantly th

pt cnds th cntinuatin th Gnatin basd

Incnti sch duing th 1th Plan Pid. Th pt haspiitizd th issu tansissin which was a wak link in

th alu chain until nw. This is ing dalt with y a jint

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wking gup th mNre, th ministy Pw, th Cntal

elcticity Authity and th Pw Gid Cpatin India.

Hw, India t ach its ptntial and t st th

ncssay instnt in nwal ngy, it will ssntial

t intduc cla, stal and lng-t suppt plicis,

caully dsignd t nsu that thy pat in hany

with xisting stat ll chaniss and d nt duc thi

ctinss.

TRAnSmISSIOn

Inadquat gid inastuctu is an incasing challng.

Hw, th pssiility linking th suthn ginal

gid with th natinal gid, which is cuntly schduld

013-014, will play an iptant l in ast-tacking th

dlpnt th reC akt. This int-linkag ginal

and natinal gids is iptant t nal th high wind stats

t cntinu t incas wind pw pntatin in th stat

gids withut sting t cutailnt. on way t iliz

high utlays nancial sucs t cat ipd gid

inastuctu culd t tap th Natinal Clan engy

Fund catd y th Gnnt in 010. Th Cntalelcticity rgulaty Cissin is andating schduling

and casting in th nxt plan pid that will hlp ais th

cdiility wind ngy.

onging gnnt initiatis t pid lng-t plicy

ctainty a y likly t attact lag quantitis piat

instnt t th sct. rcntly, th Cnt Wind

engy Tchnlgy assssd Indias wind pw ptntial

10 GW at 80 ts. This than duld th

cially xplital wind suc in th cunty, up th

ali stiat 49 GW. This study culd ha a signicant

ipact n utu plicy and gulaty awk th

wind sct in India.

ThE GWEO SCEnARIOS FOR IndIA

Und th IeA Nw Plicis scnai, Indias wind pw akt

wuld shink cnsidaly th cunt annual additins

aund 3000 mW t nly 1900 mW p ya y 00. Th sult

wuld a ttal installd capacity 3 GW y 00 and 66 GW

y 030. Wind pw wuld thn pduc cls t 81 TWh y

ya y 00 and 174 TWh y 030, and sa 48 illin tns

Co2 in 00 and 105 illin tns in 030. Instnts in

wind pw in India wuld als dp th cunt lls

3.7 illin p ya t nly .4 illin y 00.

Und th GWeo mdat scnai, w xpct that twn

18.6 and 19 GW wind pw capacity will installd in

India y th nd 01. Und th mdat scnai, th

ttal installd capacity wuld ach alst 31.4 GW y 015,

and this wuld g n t gw t 59 GW y 00 and 14 GW

y 030.

by 015 th wind industy will s instnts 5.3 illin

p ya, 7. illin p ya y 00 and 8.3 illin p

ya y 030. eplynt in th sct wuld gw th

cuntly stiatd 47,500 js t 98,000 y 00 and 16,000 js tn yas lat.

Nthlss th GWeo Adancd scnai shws that th

wind dlpnt in India culd g uch uth: y 00

India culd ha alst 89 GW wind pw in patin,

supplying 19 TWh lcticity ach ya, whil plying

179,000 ppl in th sct and saing alst

131 illin tnns Co2 issins ach ya. Instnt

wuld y thn ha achd a ll 13 illin p ya.

With th acut nd lcticatin and high ngy

pductin in th cunty, wind ngy is ging t pid

an incasingly signicant sha th nwals asdcapacity. by 030 wind pw wuld gnat alst

504 TWh p ya and aid th issin 304 illin tns

Co2 ach ya.

Kutch, India Wind Power Works

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LAtin AmEriCA



0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

010 011 015 00 030

nw 1,489 MW ,330 MW 4,34 MW 6,41 MW 13,868 MW

m 1,489 MW ,330 MW 9,96 MW 1,903 MW 56,075 MW

a 1,489 MW ,330 MW 15,303 MW 47,970 MW 134,411 MW

Latin Aica11 has s th st wind sucs in th

wld, and wind pw is pisd t play a gat l in

ting th gins gwing dand lcticity. With

a ad citnt t ninntal ptctin acssth gin, it is cnsidd n th st aas th

dplynt wind pw.

At th nd 009 1,07 mW wind pw capacity

had n installd acss th nti gin. by th nd 011,

this had than duld t alst ,330 mW ttal

installd capacity, with bazil accunting tw thids

this capacity.

Th a signs that wind pw is nw nally aching citical

ass in a nu Latin Aican akts, and th gin

has gun dlping a sustantial wind pw industy tcplnt th its ich hyd and iass (and ptntially

sla) sucs. In th diu t lng-t th dand

disity supply is xpctd t gw wind gnatin in

Latin Aica.

Hw, w ha t a in ind that Latin Aica, lik

th eastn eup/euasian cnis, has a disity

cnic and plitical gis within its undais. In act its

cnstitunt cuntis a at astly dint stags cnic

dlpnt. Th a a nu ging cnis

in th gin whs p capita inc is siila t gat

than that s nw eU stats; yt at th sa ti

th gin is still plagud with xt pty and liitddlpnt in sal cuntis and su-natinal gins.

bRAzIl

bazil, Latin Aicas lagst cny, is als th lad in

wind pw installatins. bazil has histically lid haily nhydpw gnatin, which until cntly supplid 80%

th cuntys lcticity nds. As wind and hydpw wk

wll tgth within a pw syst, this cinatin s

an idal asis lag-scal wind pw dlpnt. Th

cunty has tndus ptntial wind ngy, cupld

with a gwing lcticity dand and a slid industial as.

At a aily slw stat t wind pw dlpnt in th st

hal th last dcad, th bazilian wind akt nw ss

t taking . In 011, 58 mW w addd t ing its

cuulati installd capacity t 1,509 mW. This is an incas

63% in installd capacity, and a 56% incas in ts annual akt gwth. bazil achd th GW ilstn in

August 01 and has than 7,000 mW in th piplin t

cpltd y 016.

bazil is n th st pising nsh akts wind

ngy at last th nxt yas. Th cuntys suppt

awk and th scts xpinc ha n adaptd

t t lcal cnditins. This puts bazil in an xcllnt

psitin t th ginal lad in wind ngy gnatin

and dlpnt. Hw, achiing sustaind dlpnt

quis a nw gulaty awk, which wuld pid

ctainty in ts dlpnt lus in th diu

and lng t. Cunt gnnt pjctins s16,000 mW wind pw installd in th cunty y th nd

01.

11 Please note that Mexico is now part o OECD North America

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ChIlE

Unlik any its nighus, Chil has liitd indignus ssilngy sucs, and lis haily n ipts, th disuptin

which has ld t pidic ngy shtags th past dcad.

Chil is als ulnal t lng dy splls duing th su

nths. As a sult, ngy pics in Chil ha naly tipld in

th last yas. Ftunatly, Chil is lssd with aundant

nwal ngy sucs, including wind, sla and gthal,

ut t dat thy psnt lss than 1% th ngy ix.

Chil has gd wind sucs th nthn dsts t

th xt suth, including th suth-cntal zn that

is h t aund 80% th cuntys ppulatin and

tw thids its industy. Chils wind ngy ptntial is

stiatd at than 40 GW.

Chils nwal ngy ptli gw cnsidaly in 011

and than 5,000 mW nwal ngy pjcts a

cuntly und dlpnt. Wind pjcts accunt

than 3,000 mW, including th installd capacity as

wll as pjcts und dlpnt. Althugh th akt is

ing, th a still aj stacls t th cnstuctin

and iplntatin ths pjcts, and actual installd

capacity nwals is nly aut 600 mW. In ts

installd capacity, wind pw psnts aut a thid th

ttal installd capacity nwals. In 011, 33 mW nw

wind capacity ca patinal, including nw pjctsand th xpansin xisting ns. oall, this psnts

naly 0% gwth cpad t 010 gus, inging th

cuulati installd wind capacity t 0 mW.

OThER mARKETS

urga had installd 43 mW y 011. It has a plan t

intgat wind ngy as a suc, haing alady auctind

500 mW wind pjcts. Th xpctatin is that Uuguay

will ha GW wind pw installd y 00. A pspct

incasing wind pw in th gin culd a plannd

intcnnctin twn Uuguay and bazil.

Anth pising akt is Argetia, which had naly

130 mW in patin at th nd 011. Agntina als has

assi wind sucs. A nu lag wind pw pjcts

a und dlpnt, and thy a dspatly ndd t

hlp alliat chnic lcticity shtags. S analysts

clai that th winds in Agntina a sucint t supply Latin

Aicas nti lctical dand sn tis .

oth wind pw akts in th gin includ: Costa

Rica, with aut 13 mW wind pw at th nd 011;

horas, with 10 mW wind pw at th nd 011;

nicaraga, which asts 6 mW ttal capacity; and thdoiica Reic addd 33 mW nw capacity in 011,

thy jining th list cuntis with ccial-scal

wind pw dlpnt.

Finally, althugh th is s dlpnt wind pw

in th island cnis in th Cariea, which cuntly

stly ly n iptd ssil uls, wind pw culd play auch sustantial l in hlping gw thi cnis

n a sustainal asis. jaaica has 3 mW installd

wind capacity and Ara had 30 mW installd wind

pw capacity at th nd 011.

Untunatly, hw, all ths aly akts su

th lack a cla, lng-t plicy awk th

dlpnt a wind

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