库存控制与需求预测

Inventory Control and Demand Forecasting

金茂深圳JW万豪酒店地址

2018年5月23-24日（周三至周四）时间

2018

www.globalscm-group.commarke�ng@globalscm.net+86 21 3639 7572

谁将参加Who Should Attend

制造业有关库存管控和需求预测人员来自企业各部门（市场、销售、研发、制造、采购等部门）的有志于了解预测与库存控制的人员尽管课程中会有大量的案例和实战的演练，但无论库存还是预测，都需要一定的计算，因此最好有一点数理基础。本课程针对制造业的原材料和成品的库存管理，不适合MRO备品备件的库存管理

2䲔嫕啳岞䚰撫杙㣭苧坰㖄鞣䡸3䲔脠攙㝧寫䑦醤獼楪䲗電髂舤濱兊緲4䲔䃐瞼├脠攙├㝧寫├㶖㣳譳閭髟㲶䆹黪䇅㐍閽燡磓䲗撥蒘乽嵿5䲔電髂㮝鰰惵槄圵䚰鞣鞯6䲔嘋愳㝨讞枼狚彎柣測㣭䲗嘋愳懃㞏鞣杙

1) Out of stock meanwhile in high stock 2) Production plan changed frequently3) Argument between several departments (sales, production, planning and sourcing)4) High business operation cost5) Delayed order delivery and constant customer complaints

需求预测不准确是企业的心病，它直接导致了： Inaccurate demand forecasting is a big challenge for many enterprises, which has direct effect on:

2䲔惵槄圵䚰鞣鞯3䲔屵軻電髂菗縁㶠玗4䲔處嫕銋婞筕處5䲔閭髟㲶䆹憴嫕啳尲閣暽緲覫鬂䲗銐橦嫕啳㥑樑㥑䚰

而库存控制不合理对企业来说也是灭顶之灾，它直接导致了： Unreasonable inventory control would be another catastrophe, which directly leads to:1) High cost2) Effect cash flow3) Overloaded warehouse4) More and more stock because every department sees it as life-saving straw

课程背景Program Introduction

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Personnel related to inventory control and demand forecas�ng

Personnel from different departments (Marke�ng, Sales, R&D, Manufacturing, Purchasing and etc.) interested in learning inventory control and demand forecas�ng

There will be a massive real cases and prac�ces. As inventory and forecast need to calculate, it will be be�er if you have some mathema�cal knowledge.

This course aims at the inventory management of raw materials and finished products in the manufacturing industry, not suitable for MRO and spare parts.

课程总体介绍+!仸㝳蒅櫲䈙㮽+!㟄襫嶖贛銐橂籌銉

库存概述+!嫕啳豵纇菗仹槄纇崿+!嫕啳菗詳踭䲗貺慚桇惷憚憮揤菗嫕啳+!嫕啳╳電髂髯憇皞菗㖕馟䲗閭髟㲶䆹嚪嫕啳菗!!鞣閽榲榩

库存周转率+!嫕啳紿㬸綷菗㝧豨+!㯧㮔豋讞菗㣨則蘈㞌䲗貶㖧嫕啳紿㬸綷嚪電髂菗!!㶜㕄嵾+!冨剛㞄嗼閾纇菗嫕啳紿㬸綷縹嫕啳蒅櫲+!嫕啳紿㬸綷菗圧䈡嵾+!貶㖧鞣閽㐍髂嫕啳紿㬸綷菗僿颴広鐵

了解不同行业库存周转率的大致情况

+!㣳幫曨㶞菗憴揤杴宩アアmpu!gps!mpu䲗↖嗼㶞䲗!!嗼榲䲗njo.nby+!FPR銋玧㶖㣳憙㶞菗嘄愃導懶縹㯏脩驨–+!嫕啳抐榐㣿綷╳嘄愃髯菗姭僿弇黧+!楿囏嫕啳㶞縹嗗獅嫕啳㶞菗姳壓帶嶧閭颕㯏嫙!!剛褔篵朶+!楿囏嫕啳㶞菗㝧豨杴狚+!嶗伋狚䲓僘處狚䲔菗嫙脩

采购数量的选择

采购时机的选择+!㣳幫柣槙菗憴揤杴宩アアsfpsefs!qpjou䲗嗼榲!!䲓↖嗼柣䇅䲔㶖㣳䲗NSQ㰈㭞+!嗼榲㶖㣳囶壽㕄猄弇㶖㣳䇅䉥榲菗+!NSQ㰈㭞帶嶧㯏閾菗篵朶踭⿱

+!嗗獅嫕啳㯏嫙菗広屘+!嗗獅嫕啳㞄嗼髯菗媨杴欴摜纇+!實㕂欸緜菗杴狚㞄嗼嗗獅嫕啳+!蒔悵踭揥狚㞄嗼嗗獅嫕啳+!䑙玤勵姳狚㞄嗼嗗獅嫕啳+!歍華皞鉹䲗嗗獅嫕啳㞄嗼菗杴狚+!帶鞔鞒褔杴狚菗對賊縹獸贛嫙脩

安全库存的设定

+!駘瘶篵朶僋纇菗㣨則蝕宩+!駘瘶篵朶僋纇菗獸贛杴狚+!冨剛䑙䈃駘瘶篵朶

呆滞物料的处理

库存分类管理+!嫕啳菗詳踭豵纇䲗繫㠧䈡縹BCD詳踭狚+!BCD詳踭狚㕄猄弇菗飾䃾䆿䑭+!鞣閽篵朶嫕啳菗豵揤杴宩库存管理概述

+!燴嫙䃎髯嫕啳銜縁菗錃脷+!燴嫙䃎髯菗篞䍿暲嫙+!講巘適讒嚪䈞該嫕啳菗婒齋

供应链中的库存管理

供应链中库存管控的具体方法

+!WNJアア蓕炰嶗㤩菗嫕啳豵纇溦宩+!WNJ菗纇崿縹╳嘄䈖髯菗嫙脩+!歍華詳讒䲗WNJ惵㣫菗飾䃾+!KJU菗纇崿縹㯏脩電髂+!噏瞼菗纇崿縹㯏脩電髂+!歍華詳橓䲪剛㟙䋇嫕啳䲯冨剛嘄縁䋇嫕啳搩䚰處嫕!!菗姩閣暲綷

+!屵軻䋑燵菗禦輴+!歍華詳橓䲪檪焭杝䇌嚪䑙玤菗屵軻

+!䋑燵菗簊祂+!蒘飾㲶䆹嚪䑙玤彎蛠嵾菗屵軻+!憮䑙玤縹鞣憮䑙玤菗広屘+!囏鉼㝮㞀䲪冨剛暞錒䃐瞼㲶䆹エ枼狚䑙玤惿鑞!!䊏帶䑙玤ォ菗広屘䑛徠朶豵纇

如何提高预测准确性

+!䑙玤彎蛠嵾菗㝧豨杴狚+!歍華詳橓䲪㯖獫閾㯏菗䑙玤彎蛠嵾菗㐢㶞櫲彎+!㝮㞀'詳橓䲪冨剛搩䚰䑙玤彎蛠嵾

预测的特点

预测的具体方法

+!襓詐媨〢狚䲓鳘灈├擇槥縹㥒偵襓詐媨〢狚䲔菗!!㝧豨縹漢脩驨–+!歍華詳橓+!媨瘓抣曨䲓鳘灈媨瘓├癟灈媨瘓縹姳詳媨瘓䲔菗!!㝧豨縹漢脩驨–+!喐馷嵾菗㝧豨縹漢脩驨–+!歍華詳橓+!娕▕芻榐綷菗䑙玤杴狚+!欱槄諑䇅䑙玤狚

+!掵摃䑙玤菗纇崿鞲杴狚+!鬚讂喕驤蒘飾䆿䑭

实战案例演练

+!䑙玤榐貺慚簊祂+!歍華詳橓䲪脷僿訝囏縹脷囏訝僿菗䑙玤杴狚㱱!!鳘髟楪冟䲯+!嗼嵾䑙玤縹嗼㶞䑙玤菗嫙脩嚪㠧+!暚䊗䑙玤曨捸菗猄弇祂

1

库存控制的具体方法2

供应链中的库存管理3

如何提高预测准确性4

预测的具体方法、工具和应用

+!㟄襫嶖銐!!!+!㐍詐㝧寫结束语

5

影响预测的因素

课程大纲Program Agenda

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课程大纲Program Agenda

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Theme: General Program IntroductionKey Points:

Overview of Inventory Management1

1. Training objective statement. 2. General structure of the program.

Theme: Fundamentals of Inventory

Key Points: 1. General concept of inventory management.2. Category of inventory, and which is controllable.3. Roles which inventory plays in the company and different depart-ments have different expectations for inventory management.

Theme: Inventory Turnover Ratio

Key Points: 1. Calculation of Inventory Turnover Ratio.2. The importance of Inventory Turnover Ratio in business operation3. How to set reasonable inventory turnover and inventory target.4. Limitation of Inventory Turnover Ratio.5. Inventory Turnover Ratio in different industries.

Theme: Inventory Management in Supply ChainKey Points:

Inventory Management in Supply Chain3

1. Reasons of the emergency of inventory in the supply chain.2. Bullwhip effect in the supply chain.3. Information sharing helps to reduce inventory.

Theme: Effective Methods to Control Inventory in Supply ChainKey Points: 1. VMI—a truly win-win inventory management model.

2. Concept and application of VMI.3. Case study—the key points to success in VMI.4. Concept of JIT and applicable enterprises.5. Concept of consignment and applicable enterprises.6. Case Study: What is Zero Inventories? How to improve efficiency to achieve it?

Concluding remarks

Theme: Influencing factors of demand forecasting

Key Points: 1. Influencing factors of demand.2. Case Study: The impact of a piece of news on forecasting.3. Features of demand.4. The impact of departments on forecast accuracy.5. Predicable/ unpredictable situation.6. Group Discussion: How to improve the phenomenon of CANNOT/HARD TO FORECAST by sales department

Theme: How to Improve the Forecasting Accuracy

Key Points: 1. Calculation of forecast accuracy.2. Case study: Take the right measure standard.3. Discussion: how to improve forecast accuracy.

5 Methods, Models & Applications of Demand Forecasting

How to Improve the Forecasting Accuracy4

Theme: Characteristics of Demand ForecastingKey Points: 1. What are the characteristics of forecasting?

2. Case study: Which method is better? From large to small or from small to large?3. Application objects of qualitative predictions and quantitative predictions.4. Attention points of data collection.

Theme: Effective Methods of Demand Forecasting

Key Points: 1. Moving average method.2. Smoothness index calculation.3. Simple seasonality calculation.4. Market sharing calculation.5. Sample interval forecasting.6. Real case studies

Theme: Case Study and Q&A time

Key Points: 1. Grasp the concepts and methods of forecasting.2. Q&A

Theme: Determining Purchasing QuantityKey Points:

Specific methods of inventory control2

1. Methods of purchase quantity control.2. Practical value and applicable scope of EOQ.3. Great significance of Stock Holding Rate.4. The Difference between the minimum inventory and the safety stock and what materials are adapted to them?5. Calculation of minimum inventory.6. Application of Two-Bin System.

Theme: Determining Timing of Purchasing

Key Points: 1. Ways for purchasing timing control2. The impact of the purchase interval should be paid particular attention for regular purchasing.3. MRP logic and the appropriate material type.

Theme: Method of Activity Based Classification

Key Points: 1. Classification management of inventory, Four-quadrant and ABC Classification.2. Key issues to be paid attention in ABC Classification.3. Inventory Control of different materials

Theme: Calculating Safety Stock

Key Points: 1. Safety stock adaptation.2. Square root principle3. Using 6 Sigma to set safety stock.4. Using Historical Analogy to set safety stock.5. Using Prediction Bias to set safety stock.6. Case Study for safety stock setting.7. Practical Application for 3 methods above.

Theme: Excess Material Handling

Key Points: 1. Financial formula of excess material.2. Effective methods to deal with excess material.3. How to prevent excess material.

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Trainer Background

讲师介绍

课程特色

鶱鑚娝䲗HmpcbmTDN䕬婑䑓䆿䲗髯↙電髂嘼閧閾頓簊閰䚰鉒㝸娝├鎶↙燴嫙䃎謐頓)DTDNQ䲔鞔珨║歒頓鹘嘼剗驤├庼梬㣮㶞鞲燴嫙䃎喕䈳䚰鉒䑓䆿䲗鬨鮜鎶↙㮝鰰鞲豵纇謐頓)BQJDT䲔DQJN㞇愛䲗躤葈實㕂欸緜䪸婈┝

鋤鱉仸㝳㮞諫媩䲗╳仸㝳黪遺䲗鶱鑚娝╳艷㯭髂榐諫僫媩鋤髂銋䙤䲗╳611尀電髂戞滌燴嫙䃎杴䌳菗䚰豵閛縛䲗珽嶧䑛亴賾扱脠攙㝧寫├嫕啳揤艷├tpvsdjoh├篵朶豵纇├處瑪豵纇譳┝╳閛榲䇅䲗鶱鑚娝煐媩頓㣥㣩3　4髟蝕愷鉒菗僿䑎蒅䲗婒齋蝕愷╳燴嫙䃎杴䌳鞣杙對僉玗襫縹惵槄䲗搩䚰㮝鰰暲綷┝㯧㮔僫媩菗姩閣銋蒔縹䑎蒅嘄杺䲗窧帎曮髟燴嫙䃎菗玗襫縹嘄䈖旪閣䲗嚪燴嫙䃎豵纇榐蔄璗鴦菗㝪㞌縹纇㖧┝

3116媩㣥㣩錀損篵玗輽錻徹慓菗曊槶䲗3118媩㣥㣩錀損燴嫙䃎䚰鉒豵纇娝菗曊槶縹鑜鉣┝麇㕄幃鞲銜箾愛跡賾扱䲪┤燴嫙䃎豵纇縹仹蚏┥䲗┤燴嫙䃎測錘玗襫鞲嘄杺┥䲗┤燴嫙䃎脠攙玗襫鞲嫕啳┥䲗┤燴嫙䃎㶖㣳玗襫鞲愃膖┥┝

銐閾㟄襫贛軶縹髟徹菗髭噛姩閣銋䙤䲗鶱鑚娝塊嚭菗桇嘄愃宩,贛䙤宩菗仸㝳䲗╳㟄襫㞄㝧髯䌯婞猄弇纇㞀鞲嘄䈖歍華菗輽噑銐閾䲗猄㶜嘄愃䲗㱌殺訠獜菗纇㞀䲗㟄襫樿獸嘄愃嵾縹抣嚭嵾䲗閽柣㭒帶薩詳閾纇菗歍華縹撥詐玏詐宲㤾僿嘼適䨊縹弣㖪┝鶱鑚娝㰈㭞嵾尀䲗䒣㥪媶䪿├樿獸嘗縹臟䲗錒濱犆㯧縹嶖銐䲗㟄襫馷儹輽葦├熲熼玏㦋䲗玀訝喕驤鳘颴菗冟㞊┝

- Senior Consultant of BESTWAY- Senior accredited lecturer of Chinese Entrepreneurs Association- CSCMP Shanghai roundtable expert committee, --- Senior adviser of HP Quality and Supply Chain Institute, - CPIM certificate by APICS - Lean Six Sigma Black Belt Master

Course FeaturesWith the combination of curriculum system and his rich work experience, Alex Cai advocates that training should be integrated with practice and experience. He highly focuses on the combination of theory and case study, rather than the pure theory. Meanwhile, sufficient case study and interactive group discussion allow trainees to be proactive-oriented. In the past 10 year, Alex wins the favor of his customers with strong logicality, humor, affinity and excellent communication skills.

Alex Cai

Prior to his 10 years’ training career, Alex had worked in a Fortune 500 company as senior manager in supply chain for over 10 years. In his role, Alex is responsible for manufacturing planning, inventory control, sourcing, material management and warehouse management. He took charge of 2-3 major programs every year, continuously making efforts to optimize process, cut cost and improve operation efficiency. Through years’ working and project experience, Alex has a deep understanding of supply chain process, operation and management.

* 上海大众 Shanghai Volkswagen* 马牌轮胎 Continental Tires* 福特马自达 Ford Mazda* 诺基亚 NOKIA* 圣戈班 Saint-Gobain* 劳斯莱斯 Rolls-Royce* 巴斯夫 BASF* 上海电气 Shanghai Electric* 迪卡侬 Decathlon* 海沃斯 Hiross* 飞利浦 Philips* 方正集团 Founder* 海尔集团 Haier Group* 中兴通讯 ZTE* 富士康 Foxconn* 开利空调 Carrier* 通力电梯 KONE* 德尔格医疗 Drager medical* 贝朗医疗 Belong Medical* 阿里巴巴 Alibaba* 山东烟草局 China Tobacoo* 雅莹服饰 Elegant Prosper* 三星电气 Samsung electric* 兰生集团 LanSheng Group* 华勤通讯 HuaQin* 龙旗控股 LONGCHEER* 福克.埃尔莫 Fokker Elmo* 上海医药集团 SHANGHAI PHARMA* 海沃机械 Hyva Corporate* 雷盛集团 Rexam PLC* 豪德机械 HOLD MACHINERY* 宁波双林 SHUANGLIN* 四维尔丸井 SWELL MARUI* 梅塞尔切割焊接 MESSER* 万集科技 Wanji Technology* 布勒机械 BUHLER

等逾200家 200+ companies

Attended Companies & Successful Cases

参加企业&成功案例

时间：2018年5月23-24日（周三至周四） 地点：金茂深圳JW万豪酒店

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库存控制与需求预测