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Klimatske promene – naučne osnove Vladimir Djurdjevic Institut za meteorologiju, Fizički fakultet
Promena odstupanja srednje globalne temperature od višegodišnjeg proseka (~14°C)
~1°C
Da li je promena od 1° velika? Zašto je temperatura porasla 1°? Da li smo znali da će porast poslednjih 100 godina biti 1°? Šta je budućnost posle promene od 1°?
Landscape of Change uses data about sea level rise, glacier volume decline, increasing global temperatures, and the increasing use of fossil fuels. These data lines compose a landscape shaped by the changing climate, a world in which we are now living. Jill Pelto http://www.jillpelto.com/landscape-of-change
Promena globalne temperature poslednjih ~12000 godina
Adapted from Figure 1(b) in Marcott et al.
2016
(Hansen et al., 2016)
Promena srednje godišnje temperature (°C)
2001-2014 u odnosu na 1961-1990
(data: EOBS)
Promena godišnjih padavina (%)
1985-2014 u odnosu na 1961-1990
(data: EOBS)
(data: ECA&D)
Trend uzastopnih suvih
dana za sezonu
Jun-Jul-Avgust (1951-2014)
Trend godišnjeg indeksa
R95pTOT (1951-2014) [Top 5% dnevnih akumulacija]
Da li je promena od 1°C velika? Zašto je temperatura porasla 1°C? Da li smo znali da će porast poslednjih 100 godina biti 1°C? Šta je budućnost posle promene od 1°C?
Landscape of Change uses data about sea level rise, glacier volume decline, increasing global temperatures, and the increasing use of fossil fuels. These data lines compose a landscape shaped by the changing climate, a world in which we are now living. Jill Pelto http://www.jillpelto.com/landscape-of-change
Efekat staklene bašte
data: Scripps
data: Scripps
IPCC, 2007
Da li je promena od 1°C velika? Zašto je temperatura porasla 1°C? Da li smo znali da će porast poslednjih 100 godina biti 1°C? Šta je budućnost posle promene od 1°C?
Landscape of Change uses data about sea level rise, glacier volume decline, increasing global temperatures, and the increasing use of fossil fuels. These data lines compose a landscape shaped by the changing climate, a world in which we are now living. Jill Pelto http://www.jillpelto.com/landscape-of-change
Joseph Fourier ~1820
John Tyndall 1859
Svante Arrhenius 1896
Guy Callendar 1937
Syukuro Manabe 1966
James Hansen 1981
Od efekta staklene bašte do projekcija buduće klime
Da li je promena od 1°C velika? Zašto je temperatura porasla 1°C? Da li smo znali da će porast poslednjih 100 godina biti 1°C? Šta je budućnost posle promene od 1°C?
Landscape of Change uses data about sea level rise, glacier volume decline, increasing global temperatures, and the increasing use of fossil fuels. These data lines compose a landscape shaped by the changing climate, a world in which we are now living. Jill Pelto http://www.jillpelto.com/landscape-of-change
(IPCC WG1., 2013)
(IPCC WG1., 2013)
@ClimateOfGavin
https://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/; IPCC,2013
(Djurdjvic i sar, 2015)
NMMB - model (8 km res.)
RCP8.5 scenario – R95p (top 5% precipitation) change
2041-2070 w.r.t. 1971-2000 2071-2100 w.r.t. 1971-2000
Nu
mb
er
of
days (
days/y
r)
To
tal accu
mu
lati
on
(%
)
(ORIENTGATE - RHMSS, Djurdjvic and Krzic, 2014)
(EEA, 2017)
Source: Climate Action Tracker
Da li je promena od 1°C velika? Zašto je temperatura porasla 1°C? Da li smo znali da će porast poslednjih 100 godina biti 1°C? Šta je budućnost posle promene od 1°C?
Landscape of Change uses data about sea level rise, glacier volume decline, increasing global temperatures, and the increasing use of fossil fuels. These data lines compose a landscape shaped by the changing climate, a world in which we are now living. Jill Pelto http://www.jillpelto.com/landscape-of-change
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