30
70 80 90 100 110 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.1 진에어 KOSPI

KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    0

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²

70

80

90

100

110

17.1 17.5 17.9 18.1

진에어 KOSPI

Page 2: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²
Page 3: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²
Page 4: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²
Page 5: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²
Page 6: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²

“ ” “ ”

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

한국 출국자수 증감률 (L)

실질 소득 증가율 (R)

(%) (%)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

한국 중국

일본 대만

(%)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

06 09 12 15

입국자 수

(백만명)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

06 09 12 15

출국자 수

(백만명)

Page 7: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Total LCC 점유율

국내 항공사 점유율

국외 항공사 점유율

(%)

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

국내선 점유율(%)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

출국자수 (L)

YoY (R)

(백만명) (%)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

Europe(Domestic)USA(Domestic)

(%)

Page 8: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

LCC 상위 3개사 LCC 하위 3개사

2%

3%

4%

-50

0

50

100

150

200

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

LCC 상위 3사 LCC 하위 3사

(십억원)

Page 9: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

(만명)

제주공항

여객수용능력

-

100

200

300

400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

(만명)

청주공항

여객수용능력

Page 10: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²
Page 11: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²
Page 12: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17

(W/ASK)

CASK 유류비 제외 CASK

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17

정비비/ASK

(W/km)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17

임차료/ASK(W/km)

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

15%

16%

17%

2014 2015 2016

진에어

제주항공

Page 13: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

15%

1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17

진에어

제주항공

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

진에어 제주항공 대한항공 아시아나

매출액당 인건비

(%)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

진에어 제주항공 대한항공 아시아나

매출액당 공항관련비

(%)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

진에어 제주항공 대한항공 아시아나

매출액당 기재비

(%)

Page 14: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²

47,352

98,995

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

2016.09 2017.09

(명)

14,216

25,037

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

2016.09 2017.09

(명)

Page 15: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²

마일리지 판매

(신용카드 연계)

31%

기타

(음식, Wifi)

34%

화물 수수료

22%

여행 연계상품

(호텔, 렌터카, 보험)

13%

Page 16: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2013 2014 2015 2016

제주항공 진에어 티웨이 에어부산

Page 17: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²
Page 18: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²
Page 19: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E

(개)

운항노선수

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

0

50

100

150

200

250

4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17F

(%)(Wbn)

매출 (L) 영업이익률 (R)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16 2Q17 4Q17F

국내선 Yield

국제선 Yield

(W/km)

75

80

85

90

95

100

4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17F

국제선 L/F 국내선 L/F

(%)

Page 20: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

16.1 16.5 16.9 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.1

(천원/bbl)

천 원화 환산 항공유

111%

0

20

40

60

80

100

16.1 16.5 16.9 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.1

(USD/bbl)

항공유

145%

Page 21: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²
Page 22: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

15.1 15.5 15.9 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.1

(만명)

x 1

0000

중국 노선 여객자 수 (L)여객성장률(R)

(%)

일본, 33.8%

기타, 20.4%

베트남,

14.2%

필리핀,

10.4%

태국, 9.2%

괌, 6.6%

말레이시아,

5.5%

동남아

36%

중국

32%

일본

26%

기타

6%

중국

50%일본

41%

대만

9%

Page 23: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

11 12 13 14 15 16 17F

대한항공아시아나항공제주항공진에어

(%)

Page 24: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²

기타

23%

연료비

18%

급여

16%

공항관련비

14%

임차료

12%

정비비

10%

감가상각비

4%

기내여객비

2%

판매수수료

1%

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17

대한항공 아시아나항공

제주항공 진에어

(%)

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17

(%)(천명)

한국인 출국자수 (L) YoY (R)

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17

(탑승객/편)(천명)

탑승객 (L)

평균승객수 (R)

-

2

4

6

8

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(%)(억원)영업수익 (L) 영업이익 (L) 영업이익률 (R)

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 3Q17

대한항공아시아나항공제주항공진에어

(%)

Page 25: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²

일본, 33.8%

기타, 20.4%

베트남,

14.2%

필리핀,

10.4%

태국, 9.2%

괌, 6.6%

말레이시아,

5.5%

일본, 16.5%

필리핀,

14.9%

베트남,

13.6%미국, 13.4%

괌, 10.2%

태국, 9.4%

기타, 22.0%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

에어부산

이스타항공

제주항공

진에어

티웨이항공

(%)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

제주항공

진에어

(십억원)

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

제주항공

진에어

(십억원)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

China Asia US EU Korea

(%)

International Domestic

Page 26: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²
Page 27: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²
Page 28: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²
Page 29: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²
Page 30: KOSPI - Naverimgstock.naver.com/upload/research/company/1516850677824.pdf · 2018. 1. 25. · 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total LCC m l&l. RsUº zsQûe²

▬ ■

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

16.1 17.1 18.1

(원) 진에어