Major Trends and Issues in Telecommunications · Mobile payment $2,077m IPTV advertising $800m Mobile advertising $13,481m Consumer location-based ... It’s an Ecosystem Game App

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附件 1-2、Major Trends and Issues in Telecommunications -A snapshot of Gartner Research

九十九年度「新一代網際網路協定互通認證計畫」期末研究報告附件

Major Trends and Issues in Telecommunications A snapshot of Gartner Research

by Jean-Claude Delcroix, VP Research,

TSP Technology, Gartner

總計畫辦公室主持人：曾憲雄博士

執行單位：財團法人台灣網路資訊中心中華民國九十九年十月

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Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view.These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner. Such approvals must be requested via e-mail: [email protected]. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.

Major Trends and Issues in TelecommunicationsA snapshot of Gartner Research

Jean-Claude Delcroix, VP Research, TSP Technology, GartnerMay 2010

110/24/2010© 2006 Gartner, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Major issue:More value to the customer ForLess real revenueSoHow to grow?

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Fixed Consumer Revenues Stagnating in Real Terms

• Strong decrease in voice revenues

• Broadband and Internet hardly compensate

• Fixed communications = utility business with low growth in mature economies

Mobile is Driving Global Growth

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Some Telecom Carriers Keep GrowingGrowth Rank

CSP Growth CAGR 2005-2009 (Local Currency)

Growth 2008-2009 (Local Currency)

2 SoftBank 33.7% -3.7%5 KDDI 17.6% -3.4%6 China Mobile 16.8% 9.8%7 China Unicom 15.3% -3.7%8 Telenor 12.5% -3.0%10 Vodafone 11.8% 10.7%11 Telefonica 11.0% -2.1%12 Vivendi (Telecom) 9.6% 7.6%13 Verizon 9.5% 11.0%14 KT 7.3% 35.3%15 TeliaSonera 5.6% 5.4%16 China Telecom 5.5% 12.2%18 SingTel 5.0% 5.6%19 SKT 4.5% 3.6%21 Telstra 3.0% -0.1%22 BT Group 2.5% -1.7%23 Deutsche

Telekom2.0% 4.8%

24 France Telecom 1.5% -4.7%25 AT&T 1.3% -0.8%27 NTT -0.4% -3.5%28 Telecom Italia -2.4% -10.8%29 Qwest -3.0% -8.6%30 Sprint -4.1% -9.5%

Growth comes from:

1.Emerging economies

2.Good marketing

3.Mobile

4.Acquisitions

5

+Control “key pipes”Experience in service provision, billingStrong customer relationship

- Skill setLack of understanding of media market

The Coalescing of Media, Telecoms plus The Coalescing of Media, Telecoms plus Applications and Social NetworksApplications and Social Networks

Telecom Service Providers

InternetCompanies

MediaCompanies

DeviceManufacturers

Competitionto

WinCustomersContent

Mind share

RigidOld business modelMultiple channels to satisfy

+-

+-

TechnologyPhysical interface control

Software

+-

Widest reachControl Internet browsing/search

Lack control over location detection, billingLack of integration with mobile devices

What are the key strategic What are the key strategic thrusts for telecom thrusts for telecom service providers?service providers?

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6

Oblique Competition from Global Players (Examples)

SharedPersonal

How do you prepare for global competitors?

Support - Hardware

Functions - Software

Telecom Operators

Apple Store

iTunes

YouTube

7

How Can Carriers Compete and Cooperate?

SharedPersonal

Build on your strengths: customer intimacy

Support - Hardware

Functions - Software

Telecom Operators

Microsoft

Apple

YouTube

1. Enabling Platform

3. Quality Transmission

2. Trusted Application Provider

Devices

Device Software Context Aware

Personal Services

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How to do it

So What Should Telecommunications Carriers do?

• Customer Intimacy- Customer experience management

• Applications- Which one do you need to make customer happy- Which ones bring revenues- Which business models

• Cost optimization and operations excellence- Optimizing broadband services

• Diversification• Globalization

9

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Customer Intimacy

Mobile Market Trends: Churn

April 20101

Mobile Churn Rates %

Source: Gartner

Reducing churn Is top priority

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Where to Focus Innovation in IT (Mobile Services)

Churn – Customer Experience

Mobile Data Applications

China **** **Japan * *****S Korea **** ****Taiwan ** ***Thailand ***** ***

April 201012Source: Gartner - Based on churn % and data revenues in %


Applications

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Smartphones in AsiaPac & Japan (000)

May 201014

125,000,000 more smartphones in 4 years

The big opportunities

start NOW

Which New Services Will Communications Service Providers Offer? Short Tail or Long Tail?

Applications

Arpu

Long TailShort Tail Medium Tail

Voice

SMS

Apps

Store

s

Mobil

e Mus

ic

Adve

rtising

Paym

ents

Video

on de

mand

Perso

nal S

ervice

s

Data

Communications PersonalInteractivity

Content & Application Stores

Mail

Competitors on one market10+ 100+ 10,000+

Illustrative

10

50

1

$/€

May 201015

Remain a dominating source of revenue

Needed to attract customersLarge number to get revenue Mid-tail to create loyalty

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The Bubble Chart of CSP Opportunities 2013• Dimensions:

- EBIT- Growth - Total revenue by

2013

• Top opportunities for telecom carriers

- Media Entertainment- Consumer location-

based services- Network IT services

• Alert: new opportunities only 6% of revenue WW and 20% in WEU.

SMS/MMS & other mobile data$347,352m

Mobile voice$650,344m

Enterprise voice$120,977m

Enterprise Internet services$68,719m

Enterprise data$121,987m

0

20

30

40

50

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

CAGR 2009-2013 (%)

EBIT

, 201

3 (%

)

Online gaming$6,024m

Mobile payment$2,077m

IPTV advertising$800m

Mobile advertising$13,481m

Consumer location-basedservices $12,663mMobile TV

$17,575m

IPTV & VoD$23,000m

Cloud computing$150,100m

Mobile music$6,500m

Network IT services$188,461m

Online music$3,806m

Mobile games$7,600m

Internet advertising$99,800m

Consumer voice$171,304m

Consumer fixed b/band$134,914m

Consumer Internet access$40,748m











0

20

30

40

50

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

CAGR 2009-2013 (%)

EBIT

, 201

3 (%

)






$17,575m

IPTV & VoD$23,000m


Mobile music$6,500m


Online music$3,806m

Mobile games$7,600m







$17,575m

IPTV & VoD$23,000m


Mobile music$6,500m


Online music$3,806m

Mobile games$7,600m








May 2010

Source Gartner

You need many services to get significant revenues


Business ModelsDiversification

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It’s an Ecosystem Game

App storeApp store

Cloud ServicesCloud Services

DevicesDevices

NetworkNetwork

OthersOthers

Ecosystem Services examples 2010:

• Ovi maps, contact backup, hosted email, music store, photo sharing, calendar backup, file sharing, device sync (maps, contacts, POI, routes etc), m-payment…

• Apple MobileMe, contact and calendar sync, music store, photo sharing, file sharing, find missing phones…

• Google maps, Earth, Calendar, Video sharing (YouTube), Photo sharing (Picasa web), Google docs, Gmail, Search, Latitude…

Emerging ecosystem Services:

• Context in the cloud, advertising, m-payment...

May 201018

Richer Communications: The Emergence of Contextual Mobility

2009 2010-2012 2015-2020

Device centricPresence,PIM

Device centric - RicherLocation,Identity,Simple behavior and habits,Location-aware social networksSimple proactive alerts

People centricSensors, bio sensorsAdjacent devices and people,Complex anticipatory behavior,Complex federated services,Contextual social networking

Pre-context Simple single-vendor systems and walled gardens

Open systems and federations

April 20101

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20

New Business Models – More Complex Data• New business

models involve many more partners, services and content

• The types of data to manage and the volumes will increase dramatically

CSP Client/User

NEP & IT SP

Web 2.0 Concept – Internet – Mobile – IPTV

Internet Co

SponsorAdvertising Intermediary

Third Party -Incentive

Media

Supply

User Content / Communities

NB: Not all links shown

Business Models: A Growing Wealth of Information to Manage

Business Model Perspectives

Value proposition

Target customer segments

Communication and distribution channels

Relationships with customers

Partners and their motivations

Configuration of activities

Revenue streams

Cost structure

Core capacities

Values and principles

Value Proposition Product TypologyTransmission

Content & Applications

Transactions

Integrated services & Bundles

Devices

Storage

Operations

Processes

Physical Goods & non-comms services

Parties involved and Roles

CSP

Clients & correspondents

Content providers

Device manufacturers

Advertisers

Brokers

VNO

Resellers

Process & ServicesSupport to changing processes

Billing & Payment

Multiple Schemes

Flexible Networking and Cloud

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Globalization

It’s a Global Market Now

• Leading applications are global• Vendors are global• IT companies are global• Many telecom carriers are spreading their wing

internationally• However cash will remain the issue

- Generation- Utilization

• Telecommunications carriers need to speed up:- Cooperating on applications, new services, advertising- Global consolidation

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CSP & Telecommunications Carriers Key Challenges & Issues - 2010 – 2015

CSP & Telecommunications Carriers Key Challenges & Issues - 2010 – 2015

Business Model

Options

Business Model

Options

CompetitorsOver-the-top

Rivals

CompetitorsOver-the-top

Rivals

E.g. spectrum allocation & trading,

net neutrality, competition...

E.g. spectrum allocation & trading,

net neutrality, competition...

Emerging Market Racer CSP

Emerging Market Racer CSP

CostSavingCost

Saving

Technology

Networking & IT

Technology

Networking & IT

RegulationRegulationBusiness IssuesBusiness Issues

Geographic Strategy

Geographic Strategy

Cautious Farmer CSPCautious Farmer CSP

International Leader CSP

International Leader CSP

Optimizing Capacity

Technology Road Map

Investment and Pricing

Optimizing Capacity

Technology Road Map

Investment and Pricing

Smart Enabler CSP

Smart Enabler CSP

CSP Specialist e.g. MVNO, M2M, Cloud

Provider

CSP Specialist e.g. MVNO, M2M, Cloud

Provider

CSP 2.0new personal businesses

(media, content, applications,

financial services...)

CSP 2.0new personal businesses

(media, content, applications,

financial services...)

Bit Pipe Telecom Carrier

Bit Pipe Telecom Carrier

Source: Gartner March 2010

All-in-One CSP

Home? Mobile,

Enterprise, Wholesale

Networking, IT

All-in-One CSP

Home? Mobile,

Enterprise, Wholesale

Networking, IT

Conclusions• Strong competition from many players and worldwide

- Customer experience management is key

• Managing telecommunications services is increasingly like supermarket marketing

- thousands of product, own and third-party products- branding, place, promotion, complex business models

• New applications bring modest revenues yet growth• Broadband infrastructure, applications and IT capabilities =

key drivers of market share• Much more software technology involved in CSPs• Excellent cost management required

- to balance broadband infrastructure costs - with limited revenue growth

May 201025

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Documents

Major Trends and Issues in Telecommunications · Mobile payment $2,077m IPTV advertising $800m Mobile advertising $13,481m Consumer location-based ... It’s an Ecosystem Game App