Michael L. Tushman & Philip Anderson마은정 , 김동희

Technological Discontinuities & Organizational Environments

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1. Summary

Technology : as those tools, devices, and knowledge that mediate between inputs and outputs (process technology) and or that create new products or services (product technology).

Technology seems to evolve in response to the interplay of history, individuals, and market demand. Technological progress constitutes an evolutionary system punctuated by discontinuous change. Technological experimentation and competition persists within a product class until a dominant design emerges.

After a dominant design is evolved, improvement becomes incremental. When there are discontinuities, they usually offer distinct price-performance improvements over existing technologies.

Competence-destroying discontinuities require new skills, abilities, and knowledge in either process or product design. The skills needed for the core technology shift, causing power and structure shifts in organizations. They are usually initiated by new firms.

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1. Summary

Competence-enhancing discontinuities are "order-of-magnitude improvements in price-performance that build on existing know-how within a product class". These discontinuities tend to consolidate industry leadership.

Technology changes affect environments through uncertainty (level of predictability) and munificence (extent to which an environment can support growth). Both will be higher after a discontinuity.

Competency-enhancing changes will cause lower entry-to-exit ratio as smaller firms are squeezed out.

Competence-destroying changes will have increase entry-to-exit ratios as new firms capitalize on changes established firms can't quickly adapt to.

Firms that initiate major technological change will have higher growth rates than other firms in the product class.

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1. Summary

H1 : Technological change within a product class will be characterized by long periods of incremental change punctuated by discontinuities.

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1. Summary

H2 : The locus of innovation will differ for competence-destroying and competence-enhancing technological changes. Competence-destroying discontinuities will be initiated by new entrants, while competence-enhancing discontinuities will be initiated by existing firms.

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1. Summary

H3 : Competitive uncertainty will be higher after a technological discontinuity than before the discontinuity.

H4 : Environmental munificence will be higher after a technological discontinuity than before the discontinuity.

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1. Summary

H5 : Competence-enhancing discontinuities will be associated with decreased entry-to-exit ratios and decreased inter firm sales variability. These patterns will be reversed for competence-destroying discontinuities.

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1. Summary

H6 : Successive competence-enhancing discontinuities will be associated with smaller increases in uncertainty and munificence.

H7 : Those organizations that initiate major technological innovations will have higher growth rates than other firms in the product class.

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2. Discussion

Dominant design’s emergence

“de facto standard”, meaning that while it may not be officially enforced or acknowledged, it has become a standard for the industry.

(1) Dominant design

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2. Discussion

<Case> The Rise of Microsoft

(1) Dominant design

기존 저장장치: 펀치카드

IBM : 플로피 디스크 개발

IBM :CP/M 개발

(Gary Kildall)

IBM : Gary Kildall 과 계약

실패

Apple Computer등장

IBM : PC 개발에 무관심

IBM : Bill Gates와 계약

MS DOS 개발Windows 개발 시장점유율 확보

만약 Kildall 이 IBM 과 계약했다면 ? 다른 컴퓨터 제조업체가 IBM 과 같은 PC 를 만들 수 없었다면 ?

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Dominant design 발생 모형의 예외가 되는 product 혹은 process 의 존재 ?

성공적인 기업이 신기술을 수용하는 데 부정적인 이유에는 어떤 것이 있는가 ?

Dominant design 은 기술의 측면에서 최고인 대상이기 보다는 시장의 다수수요자들의

필요성을 가장 잘 만족시켜줄 수 있는 기능이 결합한 형태가 된다 . 그 원인은 ?

2. Discussion (1) Dominant design

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competence-enhancing discontinuities ( 역량강화적

변화 ) vs

competence-destroying discontinuities ( 역량파괴적

변화 )

2. Discussion

‘ 승자의 저주’ 발생 !

(2) Technological discontinuities

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2. Discussion (2) Technological discontinuities Competence-enhancing discontinuities

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단속 평형 이론 (punctuated Equilibrium) vs 계통 점진 이론

2. Discussion

• 단속 평형 이론 : 진화생물학으로부터 단순평형 개념을 차용하여 , Baumgartner & Jones(1993) 이 policy change 를 설명하기

위해 개발한 이론

- 연구들에서 주목하고 있는 핵심적 구두점의 하나는 기술혁신에

의한 환경변화임 . 이러한 변화는 기술적 불연속성에 의하여

불안정한 기간을 발생시키고 , 지배적인 디자인 또는 비즈니스

패러다임의 출연에 의해 종료됨

• 계통 점진이론 : 지속적이며 점증적인 종의 변화를 강조

(2) Technological discontinuities

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2. Discussion

모든 산업에 대해 “ 1 가지 이론이 정답이다”라고 할 수는 없다 . 그렇다면 앞의 2 가지

이론들을 산업 ( 제품 ) 군별로 적용시킨다면 어떤 특성이 있을까 ?

기술변화로 인한 변화를 적극적으로 수용하는 기업이 그 산업분야에서 우위를 점할

가능성이 많은 것인가 ?( 가설 7) - FAST SECOND 전략의 성공 의미