Presentation vid Prins Bertil-seminarium 3 oktober 2013

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Presentation vid Prins Bertil-seminarium 3 oktober 2013

THE TRANSATLANTIC TRADE IN A GLOBAL (ASIAN) PERSPECTIVE

Claes G. Alvstam

Professor i Internationell Ekonomisk Geografi

Centre for International Business Studies

Centre for Globalisation and Development

School of Business, Economic and Law

University of Gothenburg, Sweden

[email protected]

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Development of world imports 1970-2012

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

TOTAL

Advanced econ.

Emergingeconomies

Billion US Dollar

Source: Alvstam CG(2011) InternationellaStudier, UtrikespolitiskaInstitutet, No 2, pp. 36-40;IMF, World Econ.Outlook April 2013

Rev 130912

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THE ’BIG PICTURE’

• The ongoing process of specialization and division of labour within virtually all sectors of manufacturing and services;

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FROMTRADEINPRO-DUCTS

TO….

……TRADE INTASKS

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Commodity composition of world tradePer cent of total commodity value

1950 2000 2010

Raw materials andsimple preparations

Goods for final consumption

Intermediate goods (semi-manufactures, parts and components, capital goods)

50 10 5-8

35 20 15-17

15 70 75-80_____ ______ _______

100 100 100

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Commodity composition of world tradePer cent of total commodity value

1950 2000 2010

Raw materials andsimple preparations

Goods for final consumption

Intermediate goods (semi-manufactures, parts and components, capital goods)

50 10 5-8

35 20 15-17

15 70 75-80_____ ______ _______

100 100 100

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• Den fortgående specialiseringen och arbetsdelningen inom i stort sett alla varu- och tjänsteproducerande näringar

• The current challenge to maintain and develop the multilateral trade order;

• …..and the ambitions to develop multilateral investment agreements;

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• Den fortgående specialiseringen och arbetsdelningen inom i stort sett alla varu- och tjänsteproducerande näringar

• The current challenge to maintain and develop the multilateral trade order;

• …..and the ambitions to develop multilateral investment agreements;

• Are regional preferential trade agreements, partnerships etc. stepping stones or stumbling blocks towards a functioning multilateral trade and investment order?

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The emergence of regional preferential trade agreements – not

least in Asia

Source: WTO, adapted by Lindberg and Alvstam, 2012

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DIRECTOR-GENERALRoberto Carvalho de Azevêdo, WTO Director-GeneralRoberto Azevêdo is the sixth Director-General of the WTO. His appointment took effect on 1 September 2013 for a four-year term.

’The multilateral trading system remains the best defence against protectionism and the strongest force for growth, recovery and development….yet as I take on this role, it is clear that the system is in trouble….the perception in the world is that we have forgotten how to negotiate. The perception is ineffectiveness, the perception is paralysis…..The world would not wait for the WTO indefinitely.’ (Debut address to WTO member states, September, 2013)

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The Transatlantic Trade (and Investment) in a Global (Asian) Context

USAUSA EU 27EU 27TTIP

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The Transatlantic Trade (and Investment) in a Global (Asian) Context

USAUSA EU 27EU 27(Parts of)ASIA

(Parts of)ASIA

(Parts of)LAT.AMER.(Parts of)

LAT.AMER.

CANADACANADA

TTIP

TPP

TPP

TPP

TPP

TPP

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USA+CANADA2844(586)

EUROPE incl CIS53 units

6861(4910) OTHER

ASIA35 units

4988(1975)

JAPAN 886

317(14)

MENA23 units

1004(157)SUB.SAH

AFRICA46 units

380(48)

LATINAMERICA

36 units1180(236)

Japan 167

Other Asia 814

155 504393

184

16559

27102

US+CDN

91

116

714

537

330

126

840

98

170

391

484

Total import value of goods 2012 = 18,500 billion US Dollars

Source: IMF DOTS Database Aug, 2013 (prel.data) (Figures within brackets refer to intra-imports within respective bloc)

CGA 130821

32

140incl. Japan

91

164 170 (incl Japan)

WORLD IMPORTS BY GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS 2012

Lat.amer.217Asia incl. Japan

300

MENA 174

AUS+NZ

36

15

14

9 32

16

60

LA34

NA+LA 46

Eur

Aus+NZ 17

18SSA357 255 636

296

385

62

25

MENA+SSA18

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USA+CANADA2844(586)


6861(4910) OTHER

ASIA35 units

4988(1975)

JAPAN 886

317(14)

MENA23 units

1004(157)SUB.SAH

AFRICA46 units

380(48)

LATINAMERICA

36 units1180(236)

Japan 167

Other Asia 814

155 504393

184

16559

27102

US+CDN

91

116

714

537

330

126

840

98

170

391

484



CGA 130821

32

140incl. Japan

91




300

MENA 174

AUS+NZ

36

15

14

9 32

16

60

LA34

NA+LA 46

Eur

Aus+NZ 17

18SSA357 255 636

296

385

62

25

MENA+SSA18

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USA+CANADA2844(586)


6861(4910) OTHER

ASIA35 units

4988(1975)

JAPAN 886

317(14)

MENA23 units

1004(157)SUB.SAH

AFRICA46 units

380(48)

LATINAMERICA

36 units1180(236)

Japan 167

Other Asia 814

155 504393

184

16559

27102

US+CDN

91

116

714

537

330

126

840

98

170

391

484



CGA 130821

32

140incl. Japan

91




300

MENA 174

AUS+NZ

36

15

14

9 32

16

60

LA34

NA+LA 46

Eur

Aus+NZ 17

18SSA357 255 636

296

385

62

25

MENA+SSA18

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The foreign trade (of goods) landscape of the US

•Normally negative bilateral balances;

•Trade with Asia about 70 per cent larger than trade with Europe;

•Imports from Asia roughly twice larger than exports to Asia.

(2012 figures)

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The foreign trade landscape of the US

USA3882 (11%)

(X=1546; M=2336)

Source: IMF DOTS Database Sept. 2013 (prel.data) CGA130929

2012 figures: Billions of US Dollars

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USA3882 (11% of WT)

Source: IMF DOTS Database Sept. 2013 (prel.data) CGA 130929

CDN

MEX

621

496


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USA3882 (11% of WT)


CDN

MEX

621

496

US trade with NAFTAPartners = 29 % of totalUS trade turnover


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USA3882 (11% of WT)


CDN

MEX

621

496

EU 27

EUROPE 42 + CIS 11

(655)

788

US trade with Europe (EU27)20 (17) % of totalUS trade turnover


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USA3882 (11% of WT)


CDN

621

OTHER WESTERN

HEMISPHERE

MEX

496360 US trade with Western

Hemisphere:22 % of total trade turnoverexcl. Mexico only 9 %


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USA3882 (11% of WT)


CDN

MEX

621

496

ASIA 1263

US trade with Asia33 % of totalUS trade turnover


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USA3882 (11% of WT)


CDN

MEX

621

496ASIA (1263)

US trade with Greater China16 % of totalUS trade turnover

JAP 220

GREATERCHINA

(Mainland+HK+MAC)

605


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Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)• Originally a trade pact envisaged by Brunei, Chile,

New Zealand and Singapore;• USA expressed interest to join in 2008;• Expanded through membership by Australia, ,

Canada, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Vietnam;• Latest partner: Japan;• Now 12 members 37 % of world GDP; 33 % of

international trade;• Ambitions to close a comprehensive agreement by

the end of 2013!• Excluding P.R. China (The Elephant in the Room)

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USA3882 (11% of WT)


CDN

621

ASIA

JAP 220

117MA

SP

VN

BR

AUS

48 MEX

PERU

CHILE

45

496

NZ


(1263)

Only 27 % of US trade withAsia related to TPP partners

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USA3882 (11% of WT)


CDN

621

ASIA

JAP 220

117MA

SP

VN

BR

AUS

48 MEX

PERU

CHILE

45

496

NZ

US trade with TPP Asia ex Japan + AUS+NZ: 4 % of totalforeign trade


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USA3882 (11% of WT)


CDN

621

ASIA

JAP 220

117MA

SP

VN

BR

AUS

48 MEX

PERU

CHILE45

496

NZ

US trade with TPP LA ex Mexico 1.2 % of totalforeign trade


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USA and TPP•US total trade with TPP11: 40 % of its total trade turnover;

•Minus NAFTA2: 29 %•Remaining trade: 11 %•Minus Japan: 6 %

•Remaining 8 countries: 5 %CGA 130929

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Exports+Imports of United States with TPP partners 1992-2012, shares of total trade

value

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

TPP11

ASIA5

S.AMER2

NAFTA2

OCEAN2

Share

Source: IMF DOTS Database, September 2013 CGA130930

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Exports from United States by main destination, 1992-2012, shares of

total value

0

0,05

0,1

0,15

0,2

0,25

0,3

0,35

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

CANADA

AUS+NZ

ASIA

EUROPA

MENA

SSA

LAT.AMER

Share


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Exports from United States by main destination, 1992-2012, shares of

total value

•No dramatic shift during past 20 years;

•Asia as a whole at a stable rate (around 25 %)

•However: exports to Western Hemisphere (up from 17 to 26 % of total US exports);

•Exports to Europe down from 27 to 21 %

CGA130917

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Imports to United States by main origin,

1992-2012, shares of total value

0

0,05

0,1

0,15

0,2

0,25

0,3

0,35

0,4

0,45

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

CANADA

AUS+NZ

ASIA

EUROPA

MENA

SSA

LAT.AMER

Share

Source: IMF DOTS Database, September 2013 CGA 130917

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Imports to United States by main origin,

1992-2012, shares of total value•Slight decline (in relative terms) of Asia as source of US imports;

•Europe stable around 20 per cent;

•Increasing shares of Latin America and declining position of Canada;

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United States: Trade with Greater China and Other Asia, 1992-2012,

shares of total value

0

0,05

0,1

0,15

0,2

0,25

0,3

0,35

0,4

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

EXP CHINA

IMP CHINA

EXP OTH ASIA

IMP OTH ASIA

Share

Source: IMF DOTS Database, September 2013CGA 130917

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United States: Trade with Greater China and Other Asia, 1992-2012,

shares of total value

• Imports from China up from 7 % to 19 %;• Imports from rest of Asia down from 34 to 18 %;

• The decline mainly related to Japan;• Exports to China up from 4 % to 10 %• Exports to rest of Asia down from 24 to 15 %;• The decline also here mainly related to Japan.

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PROBLEMS RELATED TO THE TPP APPROACH

• The TPP members reflect a declining share of US foreign trade

(Defensive rather than offensive strategy)• The absence of P.R. China (The Elephant…..);• Smaller ’elephants’ as well: South Korea, ’Chinese Taipei’• Dividing the ASEAN (forerunners vs. laggards in a potential

interregional FTA);------------------• Heterogeneity among members (economically and

ideologically)• Hurdles in the DDA remain in the TPP (agriculture, GMO,

SPS, TRIPS/IPR, state-owned enterprises…………• Controversial investor-state dispute settlement;

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Indonesia

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

Papua N.G.

Cambodia

Laos

Myanmar

Macau

P.R.China Hong Kong Chin.Taipei

Brunei

Timor Leste

Mongolia DPR Korea

New Zealand

USA

Mexico

Japan

Peru

Russia

ChileAustralia

Canada

APEC

ADDING SPAGHETTI TO THE NOODLE SOUP

India

Rep. KoreaASEAN/AFTA

NAFTA

Interregional

IntraregionalBilateral

CGA/LLL 071208;080420/130929

Sri Lanka

Bangladesh

BIMSTEC

TPPmember

ACFTA

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LONG-TERM OPPORTUNITIES ?

• Successful completion of present TPP12 talks;• China joins (together with Hong Kong and ’Chinese

Taipei’);• South Korea joins as well, paving the way for a

Northeast Asian FTA;• Partnership with ASEAN4 is broadened to cover a

comprehensive US-ASEAN10 FTA;• TPP constitutes a solid base for dispute settlements

of other outstanding issues (e.g. Diaoyu/Senkaku, Dokdo/Takeshima, Spratly, Paracel……..);• Appropriate stepping stone to a ’Doha 2.0’)

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BACK TO EUROPE AND TTIP

• Defensive and reactive rather than offensive and proactive trade policy strategy (what priorities count by the end of the day?);

• Declining shares of world trade; declining intra-trade;

• Declining shares of transatlantic trade;• TTIP a welcome counterbalance to the slow pace in FTAs with Asian countries (Korea, Singapore, other ASEAN members, India, Japan…)

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EU Intra-trade ratio 1955-2012

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

1955

1958

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

EEC6

EG9

EG12

EU15

EU25

EU27

Per cent

070130090930100102110807130913

EEC6 x

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EU27 EXPORTS TO AND IMPORTS FROM THE UNITED STATES 1992-2012;

shares of total extraregional exports and imports

0

0,05

0,1

0,15

0,2

0,25

0,3

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

IMP

EXP

Share


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Geographical composition of EU extra-territorial exports 2003 and 2012

N.AMER.

OTH.EUR

CIS

ASIA/Oc.

MENA

SSA

LAT.AMER

Source: IMF DOTS Database, September 30, 2013 CGA 130930

NA28.4

NA17.7

AS/OC 23.8 AS/OC

26.0

EUR 16,8

EUR18,6

6,3 CIS10,4

MENA 11,9

MENA12,0

2003 2012

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Geographical composition of EU extra-territorial imports 2003 and 2012

N.AMER.

OTH.EUR

CIS

ASIA/Oc.

MENA

SSA

LAT.AMER

Source: IMF DOTS Database, September 30, 2013 CGA130930

NA18,8

NA12,1

AS/OC 36,4 AS/OC

33,9

EUR 15,5

EUR15,0

9,0 CIS15,0

8,6 MENA10,0

2003 2012

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BACK TO EUROPE AND TTIP

• Defensive and reactive rather than offensive and proactive trade policy strategy (what priorities count by the end of the day?);

• Declining shares of world trade; declining intra-trade;

• Declining shares of transatlantic trade;

• TTIP a welcome counterbalance to the slow pace in FTAs with Asian countries (Korea, Singapore, other ASEAN members, India, Japan…)

• The Devil in the details:-- modest tariff reductions to be expected, but also a ’spiky’ tariff

pattern within manufacturing industries and agriculture;-- larger expected benefits in reduction/abolition of technical barriers

to trade (standardization, mutual recognition, certification etc.);-- higher potentials within services and mutual FDI flows;

• A small but important stepping stone to further trade liberalization at the multilateral level.

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USA+CANADA2844(586)


6861(4910) OTHER

ASIA35 units

4988(1975)

JAPAN 886

317(14)

MENA23 units

1004(157)SUB.SAH

AFRICA46 units

380(48)

LATINAMERICA

36 units1180(236)

Japan 167

Other Asia 814

155 504393

184

16559

27102

US+CDN

91

116

714

537

330

126

840

98

170

391

484

Total import value 2012 = 18,500 billion US Dollars


CGA 130821

32

140incl. Japan

91




300

MENA 174

AUS+NZ

36

15

14

9 32

16

60

LA34

NA+LA 46

Eur

Aus+NZ 17

18SSA357 255 636

296

385

62

25

MENA+SSA18

TACK FÖR UPPMÄRKSAMHETEN!

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Presentation vid Prins Bertil-seminarium 3 oktober 2013