Revista Român! de Statistic! Supliment - insse.ro · 2017-05-25 · Revista Român de Statistic - Supliment nr. 5 / 2017 SUMAR / CONTENTS 5/2017 REVISTA ROMÂN DE STATISTIC SUPLIMENT

Revista Român! de Statistic!

Supliment

Romanian Statistical Review Supplement

5/2017

Institutul Na�ional de Statistic�

National Institute of Statistics

www.revistadestatistic .ro/supliment

Articolele publicate în acest num�r au la baz� comunic�ri prezentate la Seminarul !tiin"i# c de Statistic� �OCTAV ONICESCU� $i la sesiuni $tiin"i# ce interna"ionale dedicate rezultatelor ob"inute de România în zece ani de la

aderarea la Uniunea European�.

The articles published in this issue are based on communications presented at the Scienti# c Seminar of

Statistics �OCTAV ONICESCU� and at international scienti# c sessions devoted to the results achieved by

Romania in the 10 years since its accession to the European Union.

Revista Român de Statistic - Supliment nr. 5 / 2017

SUMAR / CONTENTS 5/2017REVISTA ROMÂN DE STATISTIC SUPLIMENT

MODELE DE ANALIZ A STANDARDULUI CALIT II VIE II ÎN ROMÂNIA 3ANALYSIS MODELS OF THE LIFE QUALITY STANDARD IN ROMANIA 17Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD Prof. Alexandru MANOLE PhDAssoc. prof. M d lina-Gabriela ANGHEL PhDAssoc. prof. Florin Paul Costel LILEA PhDLecturer Mariana BUNEA PhD

ROMÂNIA PE DRUMUL INTEGR RII EUROPENE 31ROMANIA ON THE ROAD TO EUROPEAN INTEGRATION 41Prof. Alexandru MANOLE PhD Prof. Radu Titus MARINESCU PhDAssoc. prof. Aurelian DIACONU PhD

REMITEN ELE, FACTOR DE REDUCERE A S R CIEI 51REMITTANCES, A FACTOR FOR POVERTY REDUCTION 59Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhDProf Ion PÂR ACHI, PhD Assoc. prof. M d lina-Gabriela ANGHEL PhDGeorgiana NI PhD Student

ELEMENTE PRIVIND POLITICA DE COEZIUNE A UE ÎN PERIOADA 2014-2020 67ELEMENTS FOR EU COHESION POLICY 2014-2020 77Prof. Gabriela Victoria ANGHELACHE PhD Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhDAssoc. prof. M d lina-Gabriela ANGHEL PhDRadu STOICA Ph.D Student

POTEN IALUL ECONOMIC AL INVESTI IILOR ÎN DOMENIUL CERCET RII – DEZVOLT RII – INOV RII ÎN UNIUNEA EUROPEAN 87ECONOMIC POTENTIAL OF INVESTMENTS IN RESEARCH - DEVELOPMENT – INNOVATION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION 96Assistant Professor Dr. Diana Valentina DUMITRESCUDr. Daniel Ioan DUMITRESCU

NO IUNI PRIVIND POLITICILE MONETARE I FISCALE OPTIME 104ASPECTS OF OPTIMAL MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES 122Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhDProf. Mihai P UNIC PhDGyorgy BODO PhD StudentMaria MIREA PhD Student

POTEN IALUL ECONOMIC AL INVESTI IILOR ÎN DOMENIUL CERCET RII – DEZVOLT RII – INOV RII PENTRU ACCELERAREA CRE TERII PIB ÎN ROMÂNIA 139ECONOMIC POTENTIAL OF INVESTMENTS IN RESEARCH - DEVELOPMENT - INNOVATION FOR ACCELERATING GDP GROWTH IN ROMANIA 147Prof. Alexandru MANOLE PhDAssistant professor Diana Valentina DUMITRESCU PhDDaniel Ioan DUMITRESCU Ph.D

www.revistadestatistica.ro/supliment

Romanian Statistical Review - Supplement nr. 5 / 20172

ANALIZA INFLUEN EI COMER ULUI INTERNA IONAL ASUPRA CRE TERII ECONOMICE ÎN UNIUNEA EUROPEAN 155ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE INTERNATIONAL TRADE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE EUROPEAN UNION 170Assoc. prof. M d lina-Gabriela ANGHEL PhDProf. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhDGeorgiana NI PhD Student

ANALIZA EVOLU IEI FOR EI DE MUNC ÎN UNIUNEA EUROPEAN I A COSTULUI ACESTEIA 185ANALYSIS OF LABOR FORCE DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION AND ITS COST 198Prof. Dan CRUCERU PhDProf. Dumitru MARIN PhDProf. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhDAssoc. prof. M d lina-Gabriela ANGHEL PhD

MANAGEMENTUL RISCULUI OPERA IONAL 211OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT 221Assoc. prof. Aurelian DIACONU PhDAlexandru BADIU PhD StudentDoina AVRAM Ph.D Student Doina BUREA PhD StudentMarius POPOVICI Ph.D Student

ANALIZA ROLULUI B NCILOR COMERCIALE ÎN ABSORB IA FONDURILOR EUROPENE 230ANALYZING THE ROLE OF COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE ABSORPTION OF EUROPEAN FUNDS 243Assoc. prof. Florin Paul Costel LILEA PhDProf. Alexandru MANOLE PhDLecturer Mugurel POPOVICI PhDEmilia STANCIU Ph.D Student

O ANCHET STATISTIC DESPRE OPORTUNITATEA UNUI PROGRAM EXTRA COLAR (ATELIER DE CONSILIERE SPIRITUAL ) I UNELE INTERAC IUNI SPECIFICE 256A SURVEY ON THE DESIRABILITY OF AN EXTRA-CURRICULAR SCHOOL PROGRAM OR SPIRITUAL COUNSELING WORKSHOP, AND SOME SPECIFIC STATISTICAL INTERACTIONS OR CONFRONTATIONS 275Professor habil. Gheorghe S VOIU, PhD Associate professor Mihaela Gabriela NEACSU, PhD Professor Cristina DURAN, M.A. student

Revista Român de Statistic - Supliment nr. 5 / 2017 3

Modele de analiz a standardului calit ii vie ii în România

Prof. univ. dr. Constantin ANGHELACHE ([email protected]) Academia de Studii Economice, Bucure ti / Universitatea „Artifex”, Bucure tiProf. univ. dr. Alexandru Lucian MANOLE ([email protected])Universitatea „Artifex” din Bucure tiConf. univ. dr. M d lina Gabriela ANGHEL ([email protected])Universitatea „Artifex” din Bucure tiConf. univ. dr. Florin Paul Costel LILEA (ß [email protected])Universitatea „Artifex” din Bucure tiLector univ. dr. Mariana BUNEA ([email protected])Universitatea „Artifex” din Bucure ti

Abstract Indicatorul care exprim cel mai corect calitatea vie ii (bun starea) este produsul intern brut pe un locuitor. Sunt lua i în considerare cei doi factori care concur la cre terea economic (num rul de salaria i i productivitatea muncii), dar rezultatul macroeconomic trebuie s asigure un nivel de trai mediu pentru întreaga popula ie. Sistemul conturilor na ionale utilizat de statele membre ale Uniunii Europene, precum i de alte state ca form de eviden i analiza macroeconomica, con ine toate elementele necesare unui astfel de studiu. În perioada considerat , indiferent de metoda de calcul a PIB, ob inem o m rime cantitativ precis care prin compara ie cu evolu iile anterioare sugereaz modul în care a evoluat calitatea vie ii popula iei. În analiza calit ii vie ii trebuie s plec m de la structura popula iei, num r de salaria i, alte categorii, exprimate prin indicatori statistici. Cuvinte cheie: standard de via , indicator, PIB/locuitor, corela ie, produs bancar ClasiÞ carea JEL: I131, O15

Introducere Human Development Index (HDI) sau indicatorul dezvolt rii umane este o m sur reprezentativ în sensul c exprim realiz rile medii ale unei

ri într-un spa iu tridimensional i anume: indicatorul speran ei medii de via , indicele de educa ie i nivelul produsului intern (na ional) brut pe un locuitor. HDI porne te de la determinarea câte unui indicator pentru Þ ecare


dintre cele trei dimensiuni. Indicatorul este egal cu valoarea actual minus valoarea minim supra valoarea maxim minus valoarea minim . Speran a de via minim la na tere este de 25 de ani iar cea maxim este de 85. Rata de cuprindere în coal are o valoare minim 0 i o valoare maxim 100, iar produsul na ional per capita porne te de la o valoare minim calculat .

Literature review Wagner (2010) discut despre atitudinea b ncilor fa de riscuri. Spreng, Mackenzie i Olshavsky (1996) analizeaz factorii de satisfac ie a consumatorilor. Heskett i al ii (1994) discut despre capitalizarea lan ului de proÞ t al serviciilor. Anghelache, Anghel, Popovici (2015) aplic principiile regresiei multiple în analiza consumului public i privat. Anghelache, Manole, Anghel (2015) iau în considerare impactul consumului Þ nal i al investi iilor brute asupra indicatorului principal al economiei na ionale. Claessens i Laeven (2004) analizeaz date interna ionale privind concuren a bancar . Hellmann, Murdock i Stiglitz (2000) se concentreaz pe caracteristicile hazardului moral în reglement rile bancare i pruden iale. Anghelache, Manole i Anghel (2015) includ factorii de consum în sistemul complex de formare a PIB, folosesc regresia multipl pentru a valida impactul acestor variabile. Beck, Demirguc-Kunt i Levine (2006) studiaz leg tura dintre concentrarea bancar , concuren a i criza. Caruana (2002) se dezvolt cu privire la avantajele serviciilor de

calitate, Gummesson (1993) discut despre managementul calit ii în sectorul serviciilor. Prabhakaran i Satya (2003) analizeaz particularit ile serviciilor bancare, Peppard (2000) studiaz caracteristicile rela iilor cu clien ii în domeniul serviciilor Þ nanciare, în timp ce Peppers, Rogers i Homby (2004) in cont de intimitatea clien ilor în domeniul acestor servicii. Churchill i Surprenant (1982) studiaz factorii care inß uen eaz satisfac ia consumatorilor, Levesque i McDougall (1996) se concentreaz pe acela i subiect, dar pe sectorul bancar

cu am nuntul. De Guevara i Maudos (2007) dezvolt factorii care genereaz i inß uen eaz puterea pe pia a bancar , Keeley (1990) abordeaz tema puterii

de pia dintr-un unghi diferit. Oliver (1980) prezint un model cognitiv de satisfac ie. Reichheld i Sasser Jr. (1990) sunt preocupa i de calitatea serviciilor. Schaeck, Cihak i Wolfe (2009) evalueaz corela ia dintre competitivitatea i stabilitatea sistemelor bancare. Storbacka, Strandvik i Grönroos (1994)

dezvolt calitatea rela iilor cu clien ii.

Metodologia cercet rii. Date utilizate Venitul per capita reß ect toate celelalte dimensiuni ale dezvolt rii umane care au fost introduse explicit în primele dou . Rela ia de calcul este:


În studiile concrete se calculeaz o serie de al i indicatori cum ar Þ HPI-1 (the human poverty index for developing countries), aceasta m surând derivatele (dep rtarea) în cele trei dimensiuni de baz ale dezvolt rii umane.În standarde recente privind calitatea vie ii se relev accesul întregii popula ii la rezultatele economice:

HPI-1 = [1/3(P13 + P2 3 + P3 3)]1/3

Un alt indicator este HPI-2 (The Human Poverty Index for selected OECD Countries), acesta exprimând la rândul s u îndep rtarea sau apropierea de calitatea vie ii (standardul decent de via ). Indicele produsului intern brut GDP are la baz rela ia:

Pe baza celor exprimate din punct de vedere al standardului i a bun st rii, se calculeaz Top Priority Countries sau High Priority Countries. Pentru Þ ecare obiectiv se face încadrarea în dou grupe de ri cu un nivel ridicat de dezvoltare i de bun stare i ri cu un nivel mai redus. Progresul înseamn stabilirea progresului real (RP) bazat pe formula:

i

unde: to este anul 1990 sau un an apropiat de 1990 pentru care exist date statistice disponibile, t1 este cel mai recent an pentru care exist date statistice, xt1, xt2 sunt valorile indicatorului pentru acei ani, lua i în calcul. Vom compara nivelul calit ii vie ii (bun st rii), prin corela ia care exist între cre terea produsului intern brut pe un locuitor, pe de o parte, i salariul mediu brut, salariul mediu net i consumul Þ nal. Se poate analiza nivelului calit ii vie ii (bun st rii) comparativ cu oferta sistemului bancar na ional. Analiza calit ii vie ii (bun st rii) popula iei din România efectuat utilizând modele econometrice, în special a regresiei liniare simple i multiple considerând ca variabile dup cum urmeaz : produsul intern brut pe locuitor, care arat valoarea creat într-o perioad de un an care revine unei singure persoane. Am optat pentru a considera PIB/locuitor ca variabil factorial cu


variabile rezultative, consumul Þ nal pe un locuitor, salariul mediu brut pe economie i salariul mediu net pe economie. Consider m c exist o corela ie foarte strâns între produsul intern brut pe locuitor i to i ceilal i indicatori care reß ect calitatea vie ii (bun starea) i depinde foarte mult de rezultatele concrete realizate într-o perioad de un an.

O prim interpretare o putem face asupra evolu iei indicatorilor raporta i la popula ie sau popula ia activ , cum sunt consumul Þ nal, salariul mediu brut i salariul mediu net raportat la un locuitor. Adâncirea analizei se poate face i prin analiza parit ii puterii de cump rare a veniturilor din România pentru a releva puterea sau satisfac iile materiale i Þ nanciare ale popula iei prin considerarea veniturilor la un moment dat. În gospod rii situa ia este analizabil pe baza sondajului din gospod rii care reß ect în fond aceea i tendin .

Metode i modele de analiz a calit ii vie ii prin prisma corela iei dintre salariul mediu brut, volumul creditelor, al depozitelor popula iei active i a ratelor medii ale dobânzilor În cadrul analizei de senzitivitate, a fost realizat o evaluare a calit ii vie ii (bun st rii) popula iei active printr-un calcul empiric (minimal) pentru aceea i perioad de analiz , având ca variabile de intrare: salariul mediu brut, câ tigul ob inut prin plasarea economiilor în depozite, pre ul pl tit pentru creditele accesate (tabelul 1), respectiv alte cheltuieli.

Evolu ia salariului mediu brut, a creditelor, depozitelor popula iei active i a ratelor medii ale dobânzilor

Tabelul 1

Credit mediu/pers

Rata medie a dob nzii

Credit mediu/pers

Rata medie a dobanzii EUR

Rata medie a dobanzii USD

Depozit mediu/pers

Rata medie a dobânzii

Depozit mediu/pers

Rata medie a dobânzii EUR

Rata medie a dobânzii USD

Dec. 2016 9,056,000 2,681 7,298 6.88 5,199 4.45 6.97 7,445 1.29 4,530 0.55 0.64

Dec. 2015 9,159,000 2,415 5,742 8.24 6,059 4.97 6.88 7,211 2.13 4,525 1.15 1.11

Dec. 2014 9,243,000 2,298 4,339 10.28 6,721 5.31 7.52 7,071 3.32 4,565 1.90 1.57

Dec. 2013 9,977,000 2,223 3,467 12.56 6,910 5.44 7.83 6,382 4.76 4,193 2.68 2.05

Dec. 2012 9,964,000 2,117 3,444 13.30 7,066 6.31 8.10 6,062 5.67 4,007 3.30 2.30

Dec. 2011 9,868,000 2,022 3,550 14.09 7,042 7.11 7.92 5,835 6.58 3,527 3.17 2.16

Dec. 2010 9,965,000 1,836 3,604 15.81 6,668 7.28 8.39 5,018 7.70 3,366 3.09 2.11

Dec. 2009 9,924,000 1,693 3,911 17.22 6,220 8.09 9.02 4,321 11.98 3,039 4.95 2.73

Dec. 2008 9,944,000 1,550 4,117 15.18 5,891 8.63 10.31 2,770 8.99 1,947 4.31 3.21

Dec. 2007 9,994,000 1,270 3,359 14.53 3,815 8.97 11.25 2,447 6.73 1,734 3.41 3.79

Credite Depozite

Perioada Popula ie activ Salariu mediu brut

Lei Valut Lei Valut

Relevant pentru modul în care a evoluat în ultimii zece ani nivelul veniturilor popula iei sub inß uen a sistemului bancar din România îl reprezint


o analiz dintre principalii indicatori agrega i care dau semniÞ ca ie acestei evolu ii. Num rul popula iei active este un indicator, care din 2007 pân în 2016 a avut un trend descresc tor, ca i num rul popula iei totale a României care s-a înscris în acela i mod de evolu ie. Mortinatalitatea a avut un indice cresc tor ceea ce a dus la sc derea popula iei totale a României. Considerând salariul mediu brut pe economie, i constatând c acesta a avut un trend ascendent în sensul c , de la 1270 lei/salariat (persoan ) a ajuns la 30.12.2016 la 2681 lei, apare interesant modul în care popula ia a recurs la accesarea creditelor bancare. Cei care au apelat la credite au inut seam de dobânda practicat la Þ ecare dintre cele trei valute i, de regul , f r a lua în considerare efectul cursului de schimb între leu i euro sau dolar. Multe dintre calculele celor care au apelat la credite au condus la pierderi pentru persoanele care au recurs la aceast surs pentru a- i majora veniturile. În concordan cu cre terea salariului mediu brut creditul mediu pe o persoan a crescut i el din decembrie 2007 când era de 3359 lei/persoan pân la 7298 lei în anul 2016. La creditele în lei au fost anumite sincope, în sensul c aceast cre tere nu a fost uniform , ea accentuându-se mai ales în ultimii trei ani, 2014-2016. Dobânda practicat de sistemul bancar la creditele în lei, în medie, a urmat un curs descresc tor, de la 14,53% în decembrie 2007 ajungând la 6,88% în decembrie 2016. În perioada în care efectele crizei economice au fost pronun ate, dobânda a urmat un curs cresc tor, din 2008 pân în 2011. O situa ie care a inß uen at atât volumul creditelor acordate popula iei l-a constituit i politica bancar practicat în domeniul depozitelor acordate popula iei. Depozitele în lei au crescut în mod gradat odat cu cre terea salariului mediu brut de la 2.447 lei/persoan în 2007 la 7.445 lei/persoan în 2016. Rata medie a dobânzii practicat la depozitele depuse de popula ie a sc zut în mod treptat de la 6,73% în decembrie 2007, cu mici oscila ii în perioada crizei economico-Þ nanciare 2008-2010, la 1,29 la 30 decembrie 2016. Pe baz de analiz statistic , putem stabili care este corela ia între volumul creditelor i volumul dobânzilor. Dar cel mai sugestiv este constituirea unui model de regresie bazat pe func ia liniei drepte de forma:

Y= a + b xi +

Ecua ia modelului de regresie propus:C = a + b GWA +


Dependent Variable: LAP

Method: Least Squares (Gauss-Newton / Marquardt steps)

Date: 04/19/17 Time: 18:27

Sample: 2007 2016

Included observations: 10

LAP = C(1)+C(2)*GWA

Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C(1) 181.8437 1576.187 0.115369 0.9110

C(2) 2.039919 0.768504 2.654403 0.0291

R-squared 0.468292 Mean dependent var 4283.100

Adjusted R-squared 0.401829 S.D. dependent var 1274.095

S.E. of regression 985.4048 Akaike info criterion 16.80084

Sum squared resid 7768181. Schwarz criterion 16.86136

Log likelihood -82.00419 Hannan-Quinn criter. 16.73445

F-statistic 7.045854 Durbin-Watson stat 0.496347

Prob(F-statistic) 0.029057

Modelul de regresie considerat devine: C = 181,8437 + 2,039919 SMB +

Valoarea coeÞ cientului R-squared, ca i a Adjusted R-squared, nu dep e te 50%. Varia ia creditului mediu este explicat în propor ie mai mic de 50% de evolu ia salariului mediu brut. La o varia ie cu 1 leu a salariului mediu, este de a teptat o cre tere mai mult decât dubl a creditului mediu. Termenul liber are o valoare semniÞ cativ , de aproape 100 de ori mai mare decât a coeÞ cientului C(2), ceea ce indic prezen a i a altor factori suplimentari care inß uen eaz nivelul creditului pe lâng salariul mediu brut. Similar este i modelul utilizat atunci când consider m valoarea indicatorilor exprima i în euro sau dolar SUA.



Date: 04/19/17 Time: 18:38

Sample: 2007 2016


LAP = C(1)+C(2)*IRA


C(1) 8260.856 1018.358 8.111934 0.0000

C(2) -310.5438 77.15456 -4.024957 0.0038








Func ia de regresie rezultat se poate scrie:


C = 8260,856 – 310,5438 IRA + Valorile coeÞ cien ilor R-squared i Adjusted R-squared sunt mai mari de 62%, ceea ce reprezint un nivel de încredere semniÞ cativ care poate Þ acordat modelului. Se constat , totodat , rela ia de invers propor ionalitate între indicatorul principal i variabila independent , respectiv cre terea cu o unitate (punct procentual) a ratei dobânzii va conduce la o diminuare cu 310 lei a valorii creditului mediu. Aceea i corela ie rezult i în cazul în care consider m acela i model, dar luând în considerare indicatorii exprima i în alt valut . Modelul este de forma:

Cv = a + b EIRA + unde: EIRA = rata medie a dobânzii la creditele în valut .

Dependent Variable: ELAP


Date: 04/19/17 Time: 18:47

Sample: 2007 2016


ELAP = C(1) + C(2) * EIRA


C(1) 7559.617 1442.522 5.240554 0.0008

C(2) -210.4142 211.3043 -0.995787 0.3485


Adjusted R-squared -0.000935 S.D. dependent var 1013.396






Func ia de regresie se poate scrie: Cv = 7559,617 – 210,4142 EIRA

Valorile coeÞ cien ilor reß ect o corela ie slab între cele dou variabile. Remarc m leg tura invers între variabila independent i variabila factorial , precum i magnitudinea acesteia. Termenul liber, coroborat cu coeÞ cien ii R-squared i Adjusted R-squared, determin necesitatea de a efectua analize suplimentare pentru a delimita inß uen ele semniÞ cative asupra valorii medii a creditelor, exprimat în valut . Corela ia dintre depozitul mediu pe o persoan în lei i salariul mediu brut în lei este de forma:


D = a + b GWA + ,

Dependent Variable: DAP


Date: 04/19/17 Time: 18:55

Sample: 2007 2016


DAP = C(1) + C(2)*GWA


C(1) -2706.652 728.3443 -3.716171 0.0059

C(2) 4.060111 0.355120 11.43307 0.0000








D = 2706,652 + 4,060111 GWA +

Valorile testelor statistice aplicate asupra modelului conÞ rm o corela ie strâns între evolu ia indicatorului Depozit mediu/persoan i a indicatorului Salariu mediu brut. Modelul este suÞ cient de reprezentativ, pentru peste 93% din situa ii. Cre terea cu o unitate a salariilor este de a teptat s conduc la cre teri cu peste 4,06 a depozitului mediu. Nivelul semniÞ cativ al coeÞ cientului C(1) indic prezen a unor factori adi ionali, care nu au fost considera i în construc ia acestui model i care au o inß uen , per total, negativ . Corela ia dintre depozitul mediu pe o persoan în lei i rata medie a dobînzii în lei este de forma:

D = a + b DIRA + .Dependent Variable: DAP


Date: 04/19/17 Time: 19:02

Sample: 2007 2016


DAP = C(1) + C(2) * DIRA


C(1) 7924.051 851.8617 9.302040 0.0000

C(2) -417.2192 127.8073 -3.264440 0.0115




Sum squared resid 12333015 Schwarz criterion 17.32360




D = 7924,051 – 417,2192 DIRA + .


Modelul este aplicabil în propor ie de peste 51%. Valoarea coeÞ cientului de regresie este negativ , ceea ce presupune o volatilitate ridicat i, bineîn eles, invers propor ional a nivelului depozitelor comparat cu rata dobânzii, pentru perioada analizat . Pentru cele 10 observa ii supuse exerci iului de estimare, nivelul termenului liber semniÞ c prezen a unor factori adi ionali, cu inß uen pozitiv , ceea ce ar conduce c tre concluzia teoretic a directei propor ionalit i între rata dobânzii la depozite i depozitele medii. Corela ia dintre depozitul mediu pe o persoan în valut i rata medie a dobânzii la depozitele în valut este de forma:

Dv = a + b EDIRA +

Dependent Variable: EDAP


Date: 04/19/17 Time: 19:09

Sample: 2007 2016


EDAP = C(1) + C(2) * EDIRA


C(1) 5160.290 578.1510 8.925506 0.0000

C(2) -567.1659 185.0511 -3.064915 0.0155








Dv = 5160,290 – 567,1659 EDIRA + Parametrii modelului estimat pentru variabilele exprimate în valut conduc la acelea i concluzii generale ca în cazul modelului anterior, construit cu variabilele m surate în lei. CoeÞ cientul de regresie exprim o leg tur invers între variabila independent i cea dependent . Valoarea termenului liber este suÞ cient de semniÞ cativ pentru a considera existen a unor factori de inß uen suplimentari, care per total au o inß uen pozitiv asupra indicatorului principal.

Analiza prin regresie liniar multipl În scopul cuantiÞ c rii evolu iei calit ii vie ii (bun st rii) vom extinde analiza prin utilizarea modelului de regresie aplicat la indicatorii macroeconomici cum sunt: produsul intern brut pe un locuitor, salariul mediu brut, salariul mediu net sau consumul Þ nal.


Year 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006GDP 337,6 507,1 1139,4 1655,7 2470,4 3622,7 5280,5 7041,5 9212,8 11595,6 13625,4 16373AGW 95 127 169 224 299 398 530 652 807 973 1121 1481ANW 92,5 116 146 184 231 291 366 453 566 688 848 1099FC 4718,166 6631,7 9321,3 22792,1 32793 49645,9 74047,1 104811 137742,8 185825,4 229312,7 273763,8

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016GDP 20028,7 25532,8 25065,6 26368,7 28047,8 29679,1 31890,8 33552,8 35879 37422,5AGW 1730 2023 2023 2067 2209 2343 2430 2582 2930 3257ANW 1266 1489 1477 1496 1604 1697 1760 1866 2114 2354FC 327701,7 371676,8 388005 403259,5 426606,9 443897,5 463774,9 498427 530791,9 575123,1

Func ia de regresie: AGW = a + b GDP +

Func ia de regresie propus :AGW = 93,51080 + 0,077559 GDP +

Parametrii modelului de regresie estimat indic un nivel ridicat de precizie asociat ecua iei rezultate.

Dependent Variable: AGW


Date: 04/21/17 Time: 13:05

Sample: 1995 2016


AGW = C(1) + C(2)*GDP


C(1) 93.51080 29.56207 3.163203 0.0049

C(2) 0.077559 0.001412 54.94479 0.0000




Sum squared resid 141434.2 Schwarz criterion 11.88743




Evolu ia salariului mediu brut poate Þ explicat în propor ie de peste 99% prin dinamica PIB/locuitor: cre terea cu o unitate a PIB/capita determin cre terea cu peste 0,77 unit i monetare a salariului mediu brut. Valoarea parametrului liber este semniÞ cativ i demonstreaz existen a unor factori suplimentari care inß uen eaz variabila independent i al c ror impact cumulat este pozitiv.


Corela ie dintre salariul mediu net si produsul intern brut pe locuitor

Dependent Variable: ANW


Date: 04/21/17 Time: 13:08

Sample: 1995 2016


ANW = C(1) + C(2) * GDP


C(1) 79.40148 22.03077 3.604118 0.0018

C(2) 0.055845 0.001052 53.08589 0.0000








ANW = 79,40148 + 0,055845 GDP +

Constat m inß uen a major a produsului intern brut pe locuitor, care explic evolu ia variabilei independente pentru peste 99% din cazuri. ModiÞ carea cu un leu a PIB/capita determin , conform estim rii modelului de regresie, modiÞ carea cu 5,58 bani a salariului mediu net. Se observ de asemenea nivelul crescut al termenului liber – expresie a factorilor suplimentari neinclu i în prezentul model, a c ror inß uen combinat este pozitiv .

Consumul Þ nal i PIB per locuitorDependent Variable: FC


Date: 04/21/17 Time: 13:09

Sample: 1995 2016


FC = C(1)+C(2)*GDP


C(1) 1681.211 4351.897 0.386317 0.7033

C(2) 15.07845 0.207802 72.56148 0.0000




Sum squared resid 3.07E+09 Schwarz criterion 21.87118




FC = 1681,211 + 15,07845 GDP +


Valorile coeÞ cien ilor R-squared i Adjusted R-squared certiÞ c faptul c modelul explic varia ia consumului Þ nal prin PIB/locuitor în propor ie de peste 99,6%. Cre terea cu o unitate a PIB/locuitor determin cre terea cu aproximativ 15,07 lei a consumului Þ nal. CoeÞ cientul liber C(1) este de peste 100 de ori mai mare decât coeÞ cientul de regresie C(2), constat m astfel prezen a unor factori care nu fac parte din modelul de regresie estimat i a c ror inß uen , per total, este pozitiv .

Concluzii În aceast cercetare autorii au urm rit, s reliefeze modul în care a evoluat calitatea vie ii (bun starea) popula iei pornind de la rezultatele macroeconomice i evolu ia veniturilor popula iei. S-a relevat posibilitatea de a utiliza modele econometrice, în cazul de fa utilizând în primul rând modelul de regresie simpl liniar pe baza c ruia s-au calculat parametrii de regresie cu semniÞ ca iile men ionate în Þ ecare situa ie în parte. Pornind de la faptul c sistemul bancar este cel care ofer posibilitatea sporirii resurselor Þ nanciare de care dispune popula ia, studiul s-a îndreptat i c tre a eviden ia, pe baza indicatorilor agrega i ai sistemului bancar, care este modul în care acest sistem bancar a contribuit la cre terea standardului de via (bun st rii). Sistemul bancar ofer aceste posibilit i, dar num rul celor care apeleaz , ca persoane Þ zice, la completarea resurselor proprii prin resurse bancare nu este atât de mare. S-au utilizat în acest sens, un coeÞ cient de covarian i apoi s-a utilizat modelul de regresie liniar simpl , pe baza c ruia s-au calculat parametrii de regresie care reß ect modul în care sistemul bancar este de utilitate pentru to i cet enii rii. Indicatorii agrega i pot constitui o surs de analiz i interpretare a modului în care a evoluat calitatea vie ii (bun starea) iar în cazul în care se impune analiza se poate extinde i prin compara ii interna ionale, folosind indicatorii raporta i la o persoan . Numai în felul acesta, rezultatele ob inute sunt ediÞ catoare. Rezultatele prezentei cercet ri au eviden iat o corela ie pozitiv între volumul creditelor popula iei i volumul disponibilit ilor popula iei, ceea ce demonstreaz interesul consumatorului Þ nal fa de produsele oferite de institu iile bancare române ti. De asemenea, s-a constatat o necorelare între volumul creditelor i rentabilitatea activelor (ROA). Comportamentul sau apetitul consumatorilor în ceea ce prive te accesarea produselor bancare (în acest caz a creditelor) nu este inß uen at de proÞ tabilitatea institu iilor bancare furnizoare.


“Bun starea” consumatorilor de produse bancare este inß uen at de nivelul câ tigului ob inut din remunerarea muncii, Þ ind inß uen at într-o mic m sur de componenta de economisire. Acest aspect se manifest în contextul înregistr rii unui trend descresc tor al ratelor dobânzilor boniÞ cate la depozitele atrase de institu iile bancare, ajungând pân la valori apropiate de zero. Chiar dac nu s-a constatat o inß uen direct între proÞ tabilitatea b ncilor i calitatea vie ii (bun starea) consumatorilor de produse bancare, acestea vor face în continuare demersuri pentru înt rirea încrederii beneÞ ciarilor, prin diminuarea „poverii” împrumuturilor acordate prin solu ii optime oferite consumatorilor aß a i în situa ii diÞ cile de plat , printr-o informare i educare Þ nanciar în ceea ce prive te costul produselor i al serviciilor oferite i prin reducerea constant a ratelor dobânzilor creditelor acordate. Autorii consider c este necesar ca i consumatorii s manifeste o pruden asupra expunerii la riscurile rezultate din consumul de produse bancare, astfel încât s se evite apari ia situa iilor de intrare în incapacitatea de a rambursare datoriile. Acest studiu este o baz pentru cercet rile ulterioare care pot Þ realizate în acest domeniu, un demers important Þ ind i cel al inß uen ei poverii Þ scale, coroborat cu o analiz a gradului de inß uen al litigiilor bancare, solu ionarea alternativ a acestora i în Þ nal o analiz aprofundat a calit ii vie ii (bun st rii) consumatorilor de produse bancare. Analiza s-a efectuat i prin utilizarea modelelor econometrice bazate pe al i indicatori macroeconomici cum sunt: produsul intern brut pe locuitor, salariul mediu brut, salariul mediu net sau consumul Þ nal al popula iei.

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ANALYSIS MODELS OF THE LIFE QUALITY STANDARD IN ROMANIA

Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD ([email protected]) Bucharest University of Economic Studies / „Artifex” University of BucharestProf. Alexandru MANOLE PhD ([email protected])

„Artifex” University of BucharestAssoc. prof. M d lina-Gabriela ANGHEL PhD ([email protected])

„Artifex” University of BucharestAssoc. prof. Florin Paul Costel LILEA PhD (ß [email protected])

„Artifex” University of BucharestLecturer Mariana BUNEA PhD ([email protected])

„Artifex” University of Bucharest

Abstract The indicator that best expresses the quality of life (welfare) is gross domestic product per capita. The two factors that account for economic growth (number of employees and labor productivity) are taken into account, but the macroeconomic outcome must provide an average living standard for the entire population. The system of national accounts used by the Member States of the European Union as well as by other states as a form of evidence and macroeconomic analysis contains all the elements needed for such a study. In the period under consideration, regardless of the method of calculating GDP, we obtain a precise quantitative amount that, compared to previous developments, suggests how the quality of life of the population has evolved. In analyzing the quality of life, we have to go from the structure of the population, number of employees, other categories, expressed by statistical indicators. Keywords: standard of live, indicator, GDP per capita, correlation, banking product JEL ClassiÞ cation: I131, O15

Introduction The Human Development Index (HDI) or human development indicator is a representative measure in the sense that it expresses the average achievements of a country in a three-dimensional space, namely: the average life expectancy indicator, the education index and the gross domestic product per capita. HDI starts from determining one indicator for each of the three dimensions. The indicator is equal to the current value minus the minimum value above the maximum value minus the minimum value.


The minimum life expectancy at birth is 25 years and the maximum is 85. The school enrollment rate is minimum 0 and a maximum of 100, and the national per capita product starts from a calculated minimum.

Literature review Wagner (2010) discusses on the banks’attitude towards risks. Spreng, Mackenzie and Olshavsky (1996) analyze the factors of consumer satisfaction. Heskett, et.al. (1994) discuss on the capitalization of the service proÞ t chain. Anghelache, Anghel, Popovici (2015) apply the principles of multiple regression in the analysis of private and public consumption. Anghelache, Manole, Anghel (2015) consider the impact of the Þ nal consumption and gross investments on the main indicator of the national economy. Claessens and Laeven (2004) analyze international data on bank competition. Hellmann, Murdock and Stiglitz (2000) focus on the characteristics of moral hazard in banking and prudential regulations. Anghelache, Manole and Anghel (2015) include the consumption related factors in the complex system of GDP formation, they use the multiple regression to validate the impact of these variables. Beck, Demirguc-Kunt and Levine (2006) study the link between bank concentration, competition and crisis. Caruana (2002) develops on the advantages of quality services, Gummesson (1993) discusses on the management of quality in service branch. Prabhakaran and Satya (2003) analyze the peculiarities of banking services, Peppard (2000) studies the characteristics of customer relationships in the branch of Þ nancial services, while Peppers, Rogers, and Homby (2004) take into account the customer intimacy in the scope of those services. Churchill and Surprenant (1982) study the factors that inß uence the satisfaction of the consumers, Levesque and McDougall (1996) focus on the same topic, but on the retail banking sector. de Guevara and Maudos (2007) develop on the factors that generate and inß uence power on the banking market, Keeley (1990) approaches the topic of market power from a different angle. Oliver (1980) presents a cognitive model of satisfaction. Reichheld and Sasser Jr. (1990) are preoccupied with the quality of services. Schaeck, Cihak and Wolfe (2009) evaluate the correlation between competitiveness and stability of the banking systems. Storbacka, Strandvik and Grönroos (1994) develop on the quality of customer relationships.

Methodology of research and data Per capita income reß ects all other dimensions of human development that have been explicitly introduced in the Þ rst two. The calculation relationship is:


In concrete studies, a number of other indicators such as HPI-1 (the human poverty index for developing countries), are being calculated, which measures derivatives (the distance) in the three basic dimensions of human development.. Recent quality of life standards reveal access to economic outcomes for the entire population:

HPI-1 = [1/3(P13 + P2 3 + P3 3)]1/3

Another indicator is the HPI-2 (The Human Poverty Index for selected OECD Countries), which in turn expresses the removal or closeness to the quality of life (decent living standard). Gross Domestic Product GDP Index is based on:

On the basis of those expressed in terms of standard and welfare, Top Priority Countries sau High Priority Countries are calculated. For each objective, it is grouped into two groups of countries with a high level of development and well-being, and countries with a lower level. Progress is to establish real progress (RP) based on the formula:

and

where: to is year 1990 or a near year 1990 for which statistical data are available, t1 is the most recent year for which there are statistical data, xt1, xt2 are the indicator values for those years, taken into account. We will compare the quality of life (welfare) with the correlation between gross domestic product per capita and gross average salary, net average wage and Þ nal consumption. It is possible to analyze the level of the quality of life (welfare) as compared to the offer of the national banking system. The analysis of the quality of life (well-being) of the Romanian population, using econometric models, especially simple and multiple linear regression, considering variables as follows: Gross Domestic Product per capita, showing the value created in a one-year period of one people. We chose to consider GDP per capita as a variable variable with the resulting variables, Þ nal consumption per capita, gross average salary in economy and net average wage economy.


We believe that there is a very close correlation between gross domestic product per capita and all other indicators that reß ect the quality of life (well-being) and depends very much on the concrete results achieved over a one-year period. A Þ rst interpretation can be made on the evolution of indicators reported to the population or active population, such as Þ nal consumption, gross average salary and net average wage per inhabitant. Deeper analysis can also be made by analyzing the purchasing power parity of income in Romania to reveal the strength or material and Þ nancial satisfaction of the population by considering the income at a given moment. In households, the situation is analyzable on the basis of the household survey, which basically reß ects the same trend.

Methods and models of life quality analysis through the correlation between gross average wage, loan volume, active population deposits and average interest ratesIn the sensitivity analysis, an assessment was made of the quality of life (welfare) of the active population through an empirical (minimal) calculation for the same analysis period, with input variables: gross average wage, gain earned by placing deposits in deposits, the price paid for accessed credits (Table 1), and other expenses.

Evolution of gross average wage, loans, deposits of the working population and average interest rates

Table 1

Credit mediu/pers

Rata medie a dob nzii

Credit mediu/pers

Rata medie a dobanzii EUR

Rata medie a dobanzii USD

Depozit mediu/pers

Rata medie a dobânzii

Depozit mediu/pers

Rata medie a dobânzii EUR

Rata medie a dobânzii USD

Dec. 2016 9,056,000 2,681 7,298 6.88 5,199 4.45 6.97 7,445 1.29 4,530 0.55 0.64

Dec. 2015 9,159,000 2,415 5,742 8.24 6,059 4.97 6.88 7,211 2.13 4,525 1.15 1.11

Dec. 2014 9,243,000 2,298 4,339 10.28 6,721 5.31 7.52 7,071 3.32 4,565 1.90 1.57

Dec. 2013 9,977,000 2,223 3,467 12.56 6,910 5.44 7.83 6,382 4.76 4,193 2.68 2.05

Dec. 2012 9,964,000 2,117 3,444 13.30 7,066 6.31 8.10 6,062 5.67 4,007 3.30 2.30

Dec. 2011 9,868,000 2,022 3,550 14.09 7,042 7.11 7.92 5,835 6.58 3,527 3.17 2.16

Dec. 2010 9,965,000 1,836 3,604 15.81 6,668 7.28 8.39 5,018 7.70 3,366 3.09 2.11

Dec. 2009 9,924,000 1,693 3,911 17.22 6,220 8.09 9.02 4,321 11.98 3,039 4.95 2.73

Dec. 2008 9,944,000 1,550 4,117 15.18 5,891 8.63 10.31 2,770 8.99 1,947 4.31 3.21

Dec. 2007 9,994,000 1,270 3,359 14.53 3,815 8.97 11.25 2,447 6.73 1,734 3.41 3.79

Credite Depozite

Perioada Popula ie activ Salariu mediu brut

Lei Valut Lei Valut

Relevant to the way in which the income of the population under the inß uence of the Romanian banking system has evolved over the last ten years is an analysis of the main aggregates that give signiÞ cance to this evolution. The number of active population is an indicator, which from 2007 to 2016 had


a decreasing trend, as well as the total population of Romania that registered the same way of evolution. Mortinatality had an increasing index, which led to a decrease in Romania’s total population. Considering the gross average salary in the economy, and Þ nding that it had an upward trend in the sense that from 1270 lei / employee (person) reached to 2681 lei on 30.12.2016, interesting is how the population used to access the credits banking. Those who have used credits have taken note of the interest rate applied to each of the three currencies and, as a rule, without taking into account the effect of the exchange rate between the leu and the euro or the dollar. Many of the creditors’ calculations have led to losses for people who have recourse to this source to increase their income. In line with the increase in the average gross salary, the average credit per person also increased from December 2007 when it was 3359 lei / person up to 7298 lei in 2016. The loans in ROL were certain syncope, in the sense that this growth was not uniform, especially in the last three years, 2014-2016. Interest on bank lending in the banking system followed, on average, a declining trend, from 14.53% in December 2007 to 6.88% in December 2016. During the period when the effects of the economic crisis were pronounced, interest Followed a rising course from 2008 to 2011. A situation that inß uenced both the volume of credits extended to the population was constituted by the banking policy in the Þ eld of deposits granted to the population. The deposits in lei increased gradually with the increase of the average gross salary from 2.447 lei / person in 2007 to 7.445 lei / person in 2016. The average interest rate on deposits deposited by the population declined gradually from 6.73% in December 2007, with small ß uctuations during the economic-Þ nancial crisis 2008-2010, at 1.29 on December 30, 2016. On the basis of statistical analysis, we can determine the correlation between the volume of loans and the volume of interest. But the most suggestive is the formation of a regression model based on the straight line function of the form:

Y= a + b xi + Equation of the proposed regression model is:

C = a + b GWA +




Date: 04/19/17 Time: 18:27

Sample: 2007 2016


LAP = C(1)+C(2)*GWA


C(1) 181.8437 1576.187 0.115369 0.9110

C(2) 2.039919 0.768504 2.654403 0.0291








The regression model considered becomes: C = 181,8437 + 2,039919 SMB +

The value of the R-squared coefÞ cient, as well as the Adjusted R-squared, does not exceed 50%. The average credit variation is explained less than 50% by the evolution of the gross average wage. At a variation of 1 leu of the average wage, more than double the average credit growth is expected. The free term has a signiÞ cant value, almost 100 times higher than the C (2) coefÞ cient, indicating the presence of additional factors that inß uence the credit level in addition to the gross average wage. Similar is the model used when considering the value of the indicators expressed in euro or US dollar.



Date: 04/19/17 Time: 18:38

Sample: 2007 2016


LAP = C(1)+C(2)*IRA


C(1) 8260.856 1018.358 8.111934 0.0000

C(2) -310.5438 77.15456 -4.024957 0.0038









The resulting regression function can be written:C = 8260,856 – 310,5438 IRA +

R-squared and Adjusted R-squared coefÞ cient values are greater than 62%, which represents a signiÞ cant level of conÞ dence that can be attributed to the model. At the same time, the relationship of inverse proportionality between the main indicator and the independent variable, respectively the increase with a unit (percentage point) of the interest rate will result in a decrease by 310 lei of the average credit value. The same correlation also arises if we consider the same model, but taking into account the indicators expressed in another currency. The model is of the form:

Cv = a + b EIRA + where: EIRA = average interest rate on foreign currency loans.

Dependent Variable: ELAP


Date: 04/19/17 Time: 18:47

Sample: 2007 2016


ELAP = C(1) + C(2) * EIRA


C(1) 7559.617 1442.522 5.240554 0.0008

C(2) -210.4142 211.3043 -0.995787 0.3485


Adjusted R-squared -0.000935 S.D. dependent var 1013.396






The regression function can be written: Cv = 7559,617 – 210,4142 EIRA

CoefÞ cient values reß ect a poor correlation between the two variables. We note the reverse link between the independent variable and the factorial variable, as well as its magnitude. The free term, in conjunction with the R-squared and the Adjusted R-squared, determines the need to perform additional analyzes to delineate signiÞ cant inß uences on the average value of credits expressed in foreign currency. The correlation between the average deposit per person in lei and the gross average salary in lei is as follows:


D = a + b GWA + ,

Dependent Variable: DAP


Date: 04/19/17 Time: 18:55

Sample: 2007 2016


DAP = C(1) + C(2)*GWA


C(1) -2706.652 728.3443 -3.716171 0.0059

C(2) 4.060111 0.355120 11.43307 0.0000








D = 2706,652 + 4,060111 GWA + The values of the statistical tests applied on the model conÞ rm a close correlation between the evolution of the average deposit per capita and the Gross Average Salary indicator. The model is sufÞ ciently representative for over 93% of the situations. Increase with a unit of wages is expected to result in increases of over 4.06 on the average deposit. The signiÞ cant level of the C (1) coefÞ cient indicates the presence of additional factors, which were not considered in the construction of this model and which have an overall negative inß uence. The correlation between the average deposit per person in lei and the average interest rate in lei is as follows:

D = a + b DIRA + .Dependent Variable: DAP


Date: 04/19/17 Time: 19:02

Sample: 2007 2016


DAP = C(1) + C(2) * DIRA


C(1) 7924.051 851.8617 9.302040 0.0000

C(2) -417.2192 127.8073 -3.264440 0.0115









D = 7924,051 – 417,2192 DIRA + . The model is applicable in excess of 51%. The value of the regression coefÞ cient is negative, which implies high volatility and, of course, the inversely proportional level of deposits compared to the interest rate over the period under review. For the 10 observations subjected to the estimation exercise, the free-term level means the presence of additional factors with positive inß uence, which would lead to the theoretical conclusion of the direct proportionality between the interest rate on deposits and the average deposits. The correlation between the average deposit per person in foreign currency and the average interest rate on foreign currency deposits is as follows:

Dv = a + b EDIRA + Dependent Variable: EDAP


Date: 04/19/17 Time: 19:09

Sample: 2007 2016


EDAP = C(1) + C(2) * EDIRA


C(1) 5160.290 578.1510 8.925506 0.0000

C(2) -567.1659 185.0511 -3.064915 0.0155








Dv = 5160,290 – 567,1659 EDIRA + The parameters of the estimated model for the foreign currency-denominated variables lead to the same general conclusions as in the previous model, constructed with the variables measured in ROL. The regression coefÞ cient expresses an inverse link between the independent and dependent variables. The value of the free term is sufÞ ciently signiÞ cant to consider the existence of additional factors of inß uence, which overall have a positive inß uence on the main indicator.

Linear Multiple Regression Analysis In order to quantify the evolution of the quality of life (welfare) we will expand the analysis by using the regression model applied to macroeconomic indicators such as gross domestic product per capita, gross average wage, net average wage or Þ nal consumption.


Year 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006GDP 337,6 507,1 1139,4 1655,7 2470,4 3622,7 5280,5 7041,5 9212,8 11595,6 13625,4 16373AGW 95 127 169 224 299 398 530 652 807 973 1121 1481ANW 92,5 116 146 184 231 291 366 453 566 688 848 1099FC 4718,166 6631,7 9321,3 22792,1 32793 49645,9 74047,1 104811 137742,8 185825,4 229312,7 273763,8

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016GDP 20028,7 25532,8 25065,6 26368,7 28047,8 29679,1 31890,8 33552,8 35879 37422,5AGW 1730 2023 2023 2067 2209 2343 2430 2582 2930 3257ANW 1266 1489 1477 1496 1604 1697 1760 1866 2114 2354FC 327701,7 371676,8 388005 403259,5 426606,9 443897,5 463774,9 498427 530791,9 575123,1

Regression function: AGW = a + b GDP +

Proposed regression function:AGW = 93,51080 + 0,077559 GDP +

Estimated regression model parameters indicate a high level of precision associated with the resulting equation.

Dependent Variable: AGW


Date: 04/21/17 Time: 13:05

Sample: 1995 2016


AGW = C(1) + C(2)*GDP


C(1) 93.51080 29.56207 3.163203 0.0049

C(2) 0.077559 0.001412 54.94479 0.0000








The evolution of the gross average wage can be explained by more than 99% GDP GDP per capita: the increase by one unit of GDP per capita determines the increase by over 0.77 monetary units of the gross average salary. The value of the free parameter is signiÞ cant and demonstrates the existence of additional factors that inß uence the independent variable and whose cumulative impact is positive.


Correlation between net average wage and gross domestic product per capita

Dependent Variable: ANW


Date: 04/21/17 Time: 13:08

Sample: 1995 2016


ANW = C(1) + C(2) * GDP


C(1) 79.40148 22.03077 3.604118 0.0018

C(2) 0.055845 0.001052 53.08589 0.0000








ANW = 79,40148 + 0,055845 GDP + We note the major inß uence of gross domestic product per capita, which explains the evolution of the independent variable for over 99% of cases. The change by one lion of GDP per capita determines, according to the regression model, the 5.58-fold change in net average wage. It is also noticed the high level of free expression of additional factors not included in this model, whose combined inß uence is positive.

Final consumption and GDP per capitaDependent Variable: FC


Date: 04/21/17 Time: 13:09

Sample: 1995 2016


FC = C(1)+C(2)*GDP


C(1) 1681.211 4351.897 0.386317 0.7033

C(2) 15.07845 0.207802 72.56148 0.0000




Sum squared resid 3.07E+09 Schwarz criterion 21.87118





FC = 1681,211 + 15,07845 GDP +

The values of R-squared and Adjusted R-squared coefÞ cients conÞ rm that the model explains the change in Þ nal consumption by GDP / capita over 99.6%. The increase by one unit of GDP per capita leads to an increase of approximately 15.07 lei of Þ nal consumption. The free coefÞ cient C (1) is more than 100 times higher than the regression coefÞ cient C (2), so we observe the presence of factors that are not part of the estimated regression model and whose inß uence, in total, is positive.

Conclusion In this research, the authors sought to highlight how the quality of life (welfare) of the population has evolved from the macroeconomic results and the evolution of the population’s incomes. It was revealed the possibility of using econometric models, in the present case using primarily the simple linear regression model on the basis of which the regression parameters with the meanings mentioned in each case were calculated. Starting from the fact that it is the banking system that offers the possibility to increase the Þ nancial resources available to the population, the study also pointed out, based on the aggregate indicators of the banking system, how this banking system contributed to the increase of the Life (welfare). The banking system offers these possibilities, but the number of those who use natural resources to Þ ll their own resources through bank resources is not that big. A coefÞ cient of covariance was used in this regard, and then the simple linear regression model was used, on the basis of which the regression parameters were calculated, reß ecting how the banking system is useful for all the citizens of the country. Aggregate indicators can be a source of analysis and interpretation of how the quality of life (welfare) has evolved, and if it is necessary to analyze it, it can also be extended by international comparisons using the indicators reported to a person. Only in this way are the results achieved enlightening. The results of the present study revealed a positive correlation between the volume of the credits of the population and the volume of the population’s availability, which demonstrates the Þ nal consumer’s interest towards the products offered by the Romanian banking institutions. Also, there was a lack of correlation between the volume of credits and the return on assets (ROA).


Behavior or consumer appetite for accessing banking products (in this case credit) is not inß uenced by the proÞ tability of the supplier banking institutions. The „welfare” of consumers of banking products is inß uenced by the level of earnings gained from labor remuneration, being inß uenced to a small extent by the saving component. This is manifested in the context of a decreasing trend of the interest rates on the deposits attracted by the banking institutions, reaching values close to zero. Even if there is no direct inß uence on the proÞ tability of banks and the quality of life (welfare) of consumers of banking products, they will continue to take steps to strengthen the trust of beneÞ ciaries by reducing the „burden” of loans granted through optimal solutions offered to consumers in difÞ cult situations Payment, through information and Þ nancial education on the cost of products and services offered, and on the constant reduction of interest rates on loans granted. The authors believe that consumers need to be cautious about exposure to the risks arising from the consumption of banking products, so as to avoid the occurrence of inability to repay debts. This study is a basis for the further research that can be done in this area, an important step being the inß uence of the Þ scal burden, coupled with an analysis of the degree of inß uence of bank disputes, their alternative solution and, in the end, an in-depth analysis of Quality of life (welfare) of consumers of banking products. The analysis was also made using econometric models based on other macroeconomic indicators such as gross domestic product per capita, gross average wage, net average wage or Þ nal consumption of the population.

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România pe drumul integr rii europene

Prof. univ. dr. Alexandru MANOLE ([email protected])

Universitatea „Artifex” din Bucure tiProf. univ. dr. Radu Titus MARINESCU ([email protected])

Universitatea „Artifex” din Bucure tiConf. univ. dr. Aurelian DIACONU ([email protected])

Universitatea „Artifex” din Bucure ti

Abstract În acest articol, autorii se preocup de parcursul european al României, pe calea integr rii europene, în perioada post-aderare. Sunt prezentate principalele repere ale demersurilor pe care România trebuie s le întreprind în vederea alinierii la politicile, mecanismele i standardele europene în vigoare. Acceptarea României ca membr a Uniunii Europene s-a realizat în baza unor documente, din care se desprinde ca importan tratatul de aderare. Studiul este structurat pe principalele domenii în care România, dup semnarea documentelor de aderare, trebuie s se alinieze la standardele Uniunii Europene. Astfel, sunt men ionate capitolele negociate la aderare în care se prev d termene i m suri care trebuie întreprinse. Autorii au reliefat reu itele de pân în prezent, punând accentul pe ce m suri trebuie întreprinse conform termenelor men ionate în Þ ecare caz în parte. Cuvinte cheie: aderare, integrare, România, Uniunea European , documente ClasiÞ carea JEL: O11, P41

Introducere Aderarea României la Uniunea European a fost un moment pl cut i semniÞ cativ. Integrarea propriu-zis i mai ales aplicarea „avantajoas

pentru România” a programelor de m suri este problema serioas i de mare responsabilitate pentru guvernan ii din ara noastr . Cei cinci ani, care s-au scurs deja, au ar tat puncte slabe pentru România, ar în care, „tema de campanie electoral ” este o permanen primejdioas i în 2012. De i se întind promisiuni i garan ii c nu se vor întâmpla aspecte negative care, pot destructura activitatea micro i macroeconomic parc tot suntem rezerva i în a le considera. De aceea, repunem pe hârtie considera ii privind programul preaderare.


Pa ii întreprin i pân în prezent, privind armonizarea legisla iei, condi iile de integrare propriu-zis în Uniunea European nu au fost înso ite de un program concret de m suri post-aderare. R zboiul dus „pe ruta Bucure ti-Bruxelles” sau „între palatele Cotroceni, Victoria i s lile Camerelor Parlamentului” nu a avut un efect economico-Þ nanciar pentru România tocmai din cauza lipsei unui program propriu, adecvat, de accesare a fondurilor comunitare i de aliniere a economiei la standardele Uniunii.

Literature review Klein i Ventura (2009) analizeaz efectele dinamice ale mobilit ii for ei de munc , Kennan (2017) se preocup de acela i aspect, în condi iile politicilor „grani elor deschise”, în UE i nu numai. Popa i Chifane (2013) studiaz corela ia dintre absorb ia fondurilor europene i situa ia economic a României în compara ie cu alte state, Gherman (2012) analizeaz impactul fondurilor europene asupra României i se concentreaz pe problemele ap rute i solu ii ale acestora. Stoica (2012) abordeaz o tem apropiat . Hill i Smith

(2011) descriu rela iile interna ionale la nivelul Uniunii Europene. Mihai eanu (2014) studiaz efectele crizei Þ nanciare asupra obiectivului României de a adopta moneda unic euro. Anghelache (2007-2016) descrie în detaliu starea economic a României în perioada post-aderare. Spiegel (2009) abordeaz tema integr rii Þ nanciar-monetare. Anghelache, Anghelache i Anghel (2016) au analizat evolu ia comer ului exterior al României. Coeurdacier i Martin (2009) se preocup de distribu ia geograÞ c a comer ului cu bunuri. Anghel, Anghelache i Dumitrescu (2016) se preocup de instrumentele Þ nanciare dedicate întreprinderilor mici i mijlocii cu speciÞ c inovativ, Branten i Purju (2013) se preocup de instrumentele Þ nanciare inovative în schemele de Þ nan are comunitare. Lane (2006) analizeaz efectele reale ale demersului de uniune monetar la nivel european. Anghel, Manole i Stoica (2016) prezint un model cantitativ care descrie leg tura dintre investi ii str ine directe i import. Anghel, Dumitrescu, Dumitrescu i Ni (2016) descriu rolul sistemului bancar în absorb ia fondurilor europene, ca factor determinant al asigur rii stabilit ii economiei na ionale, Manole, Dumitrescu i Dumitrescu (2016) dezvolt pe o tem apropiat . Santos Silva i Tenreyro (2010) realizeaz o analiz asupra trecutului i viitorului uniunilor monetare. Neculita et.al. (2013) dezvolt studiul asupra absorb iei fondurilor comunitare la nivelul regiunii central i est-europene. Anghelache i Anghel (2014) descriu instrumentele model rii economice. Anghel (2015) studiaz structura masei monetare din România în perioada post-aderare. Anghelache (2016) descrie utilizarea modelelor de regresie simpl i multipl în analiza cre terii economice a României.


Anghelache, Anghel, Diaconu, Badiu i Ni (2016) propun un set de modele de analiz a absorb iei fondurilor europene. Berezin i Diez-Medrano (2008) evalueaz suportul pentru integrarea european .

Metodologia cercet rii i date O prezentare realist a ceea ce înseamn integrarea din punct de vedere al programului de urmat i al eforturilor vor eviden ia necesitatea stringent a unui program concret postaderare de integrare. Demersul ce urmeaz este folositor m car prin oportunitatea de a în elege avantajele ader rii României la Uniunea European . Trebuie s precizez c Parlamentul României, prin Legea nr. 157 din 24 mai 2005, a ratiÞ cat Tratatul dintre rile membre ale Uniunii Europene, pe de o parte, semnat cu România i Bulgaria, pe de alt parte, la Luxemburg, la 25 aprilie 2005, prin care se exprim girul forului legislativ al României de a merge mai departe. Prin aceast lege, se concretizeaz o serie de reglement ri. Astfel, se ratiÞ c Tratatul dintre rile membre ale Uniunii Europene i Bulgaria i România, în leg tur cu aderarea României i Bulgariei la Uniunea European , document semnat de România la Luxemburg, la 25 aprilie 2005. În al doilea rând, Parlamentul, pre edintele României, guvernul i autoritatea judec toreasc garanteaz aducerea la îndeplinire a obliga iilor României rezultate din actul ader rii i din prevederile tratatelor constitutive ale Uniunii Europene, precum i din celelalte reglement ri comunitare cu caracter obligatoriu. De asemenea, în în elesul Tratatului de aderare, al Tratatului de insti-tuire a unei Constitu ii pentru Europa, al Tratatului de instituire a Comunit ii Europene, al Tratatului de instituire a Comunit ii Europene a Energiei Atomice i al Tratatului privind Uniunea European , precum i al altor reglement ri comunitare cu caracter obligatoriu, urm torii termeni se deÞ nesc dup cum urmeaz : prin resortisant al unui stat se în elege persoana Þ zic sau juridic având cet enia, respectiv na ionalitatea, acelui stat, în conformitate cu legisla ia intern a acestuia; prin resortisant român se în elege persoana Þ zic sau juridic având cet enia, respectiv na ionalitatea român , potrivit legisla iei României. Aceast lege a fost apoi promulgat , prin Decretul nr. 465 din 24 mai 2005, purtând girul i semn tura pre edintelui României. În baza negocierilor pentru aderarea Bulgariei i României la Uniunea European , la Bruxelles, la 31 martie 2005, s-au convenit Tratatul de aderare i proiectele altor acte legislative i instrumente necesare. Acest document cuprinde cinci p r i, respectiv: Partea I – Principiile care stau la


baza constituirii Uniunii Europene; Partea a II-a – Adapt ri ale Constitu iei, respectiv Dispozi ii interna ionale i alte adapt ri; Partea a III-a – Dispozi ii permanente, în care se stipuleaz adapt rile actelor adoptate de institu ii i altele care trebuie armonizate; Partea a IV-a – Dispozi ii temporare, cu accent pe m surile tranzitorii, dispozi ii institu ionale, dispozi ii Þ nanciare i alte dispozi ii; Partea a V-a – Dispozi ii privind punerea în aplicare a Protocolului, cu accent pe compunerea institu iilor i organelor din Þ ecare stat, aplicabilitatea actelor institu iilor i dispozi iile Þ nale. Protocolul este înso it de nou anexe, cu detalieri pe Þ ecare punct i subpunct. La 31 martie 2005, s-a convenit Tratatul de aderare care cuprinde proiecte de acte legislative i alte instrumente convenite între rile semnatare. În articolul 1 se arat c România i Bulgaria devin prin prezentul Tratat membre ale Uniunii Europene. Cele dou ri devin parte a Tratatului de instituire a unei Constitu ii pentru Europa i a Tratatului de instituire a Comunit ii Europene a Energiei Atomice, astfel cum sunt acestea modiÞ cate sau completate ulterior. Condi iile i aranjamentele referitoare la admitere sunt stabilite în Protocolul anexat, ale c rui dispozi ii fac parte integrant din Tratat. Protocolul, anexele i apendicele sale, anexate la Tratatul de instituire a unei Constitu ii pentru Europa i la Tratatul de instituire a Comunit ii Europene a Energiei Atomice, devin parte integrant a acestui Tratat. În articolul 2, se insereaz c , în cazul în care Tratatul de instituire a unei Constitu ii pentru Europa nu este în vigoare la data ader rii. Bulgaria i România devin p r i la Tratatele pe care se întemeiaz Uniunea European astfel cum sunt acestea modiÞ cate i completate ulterior. În acest caz se aplic , de la data intr rii în vigoare a Tratatului de instituire a unei Constitu ii pentru Europa, articolul 1, alineatele 2-4. Condi iile referitoare la admitere i adapt rile tratatelor pe care se întemeiaz Uniunea European , care decurg în urma ader rii i care se aplic de la data ader rii pân la data intr rii în vigoare a Tratatului de instituire a unei Constitu ii pentru Europa, sunt stabilite printr-un act anexat la Tratat. În cazul în care Tratatul de instituire a unei Constitu ii pentru Europa intr în vigoare dup aderare, Protocolul prev zut la Articolul 1 înlocuie te actul prev zut ulterior, de la data intr rii în vigoare a acestuia. Dispozi iile Protocolului anterior nu produc efecte juridice noi, men inând condi iile stabilite de Tratatul de instituire a unei Constitu ii pentru Europa. Actele adoptate înainte de intrarea în vigoare a Protocolului în temeiul prezentului Tratat sau al Actului prev zut anterior r mân în vigoare i î i


men in efectele juridice pân când aceste acte sunt modiÞ cate sau abrogate. Articolul 3 stipuleaz c dispozi iile privind drepturile i obliga iile statelor membre, precum i atribu iile i competen a institu iilor Uniunii Europene, astfel cum sunt stabilite în tratatele la care România i Bulgaria devin p r i, se aplic cu privire i în contextul acestui Tratat. Articolul 4 cuprinde o serie de sublinieri cum ar Þ : „Tratatul se ratiÞ c de înaltele p r i contractante în conformitate cu normele lor constitu ionale”, „Instru mentele de ratiÞ care se depun pe lâng Guvernul Republicii Italiene pân cel târziu la 31 decembrie 2006”. În aceste condi ii, Tratatul intr în vigoare la 1 ianuarie 2007, cu condi ia ca toate instrumentele de ratiÞ care s Þ fost depuse înaintea datei de 1 ianuarie 2007. Exist o excep ie care prevede c , în cazul în care unul dintre statele semnatare nu a depus instrumentul s u de ratiÞ care în timp util, Tratatul intr în vigoare pentru cel lalt stat care a depus instrumentul s u. În aceste condi ii, Consiliul, hot rând în unani mitate, decide imediat, cu privire la adapt rile devenite necesare. F r a aduce atingere dispozi iilor privind depunerea tuturor instrumentelor de ratiÞ care necesare, Tratatul intr în vigoare la 1 ianuarie 2008 în cazul în care Consiliul adopt o decizie privind ambele state aderente, în conformitate cu articolul 39 din Protocolul prev zut. În cazul în care se adopt a astfel de decizie cu privire numai la unul dintre statele aderente, prezentul Tratat intr în vigoare pentru statul respectiv la 1 ianuarie 2008. De asemenea se subliniaz faptul c , f r a aduce atingere dispozi iilor alineatului precedent institu iile Uniunii pot adopta înaintea ader rii, m surile prev zute în scopul de a armoniza legisla ia. Aceste m suri intr în vigoare numai în cazul în care, i la data la care intr în vigoare Tratatul pentru Þ ecare parte sau pentru toate la un loc. În articolul 5 se subliniaz faptul c textul Tratatului de instituire a unei Constitu ii pentru Europa, redactat în limbile bulgar i român , se anexeaz la Tratat. Aceste texte sun autentice în acelea i condi ii cu cele ale textelor traduse în limbile celorlalte state deja membre ale Uniunii Europene. În ultimul articol se precizeaz c Tratatul este redactat într-un singur exemplar în limbile speciÞ ce Þ ec ruia dintre statele membre, semnatare, toate documentele în limbile respective Þ ind egal autentice i depuse în arhivele Guvernului Republicii Italiene, care va remite o copie certiÞ cat pentru conformitate, Þ ec ruia dintre guvernele celorlalte state. În articolul 3, alineatul 3 din Protocolul de aderare a României la Uniunea European se clariÞ c i se precizeaz Conven iile (Protocoalele)


la care România devine parte la data ader rii. Aceste documente devin obligatorii pentru România, con inând drepturi i obliga ii în func ie de care trebuie armonizat legisla ia, dar mai ales atitudinea, rii noastre în cadrul Uniunii. În aceast categorie intr nou documente de baz , împreun cu altele (anexe) ce au fost convenite în baza celor principale. Conven ia încheiat la 19 iunie 1980 privind legea aplicabil obliga iilor contractuale, deschis spre semnare la Roma la 19 iunie 1980. La acest document de principii s-au convenit ulterior o serie de documente speciÞ ce. Conven ia încheiat la 10 aprilie 1984 se refer la aderarea Republicii Elene la Conven ia privind legea aplicabil obliga iilor contractuale, deschis spre semnare la Roma la 19 iunie 1980. Primul Protocol încheiat la 19 decembrie 1988 vizeaz interpretarea de c tre Curtea de Justi ie a Comunit ilor Europene a Conven iei privind legea aplicabil obliga iilor contractuale, deschis spre semnare la Roma la 19 iunie 1980 Al doilea protocol încheiat la 19 decembrie 1988 reglementeaz învestirea Cur ii de Justi ie a Comunit ilor Europene cu anumite competen e de interpretare a Conven iei privind legea aplicabil obliga iilor contractuale, deschis spre semnare la Roma la 19 iunie 1980; Conven ia încheiat la 18 mai 1992 consÞ n e te aderarea Regatului Spaniei i a Republicii Portugheze la Conven ia privind legea aplicabil obliga iilor contractuale, deschis spre semnare la Roma la 19 iunie 1980; Conven ia încheiat la 29 noiembrie 1996 se refer la aderarea Republicii Austria, a Republicii Finlanda i a Regatului Suediei la Conven ia privind legea aplicabil obliga iilor contractuale, deschis spre semnare la Roma la 19 iunie 1980, precum i la Primul i Al doilea Protocol privind interpretarea acesteia de c tre Curtea de Justi ie. Conven ia încheiat la 23 iulie 1990 reglementeaz eliminarea dublei impuneri în leg tur cu adaptarea proÞ turilor întreprinderilor asociate. Conven ia încheiat la 21 decembrie 1995 are în vedere aderarea Republicii Austria, a Republicii Finlanda i a Regatului Suediei la Conven ia privind eliminarea dublei impuneri. Acest document statueaz regimul impunerii veniturilor în cazul societ ilor ce se asociaz . Men ion m i Protocolul încheiat la 25 mai 1999 de modiÞ care a Conven iei din 23 iulie 1990 privind eliminarea dublei impuneri în leg tur cu adaptarea proÞ turilor întreprinderilor asociate. Conven ia privind protejarea intereselor Þ nanciare ale Comunit ilor Europene, încheiat la 26 iulie 1995 în temeiul articolului K.3 din Tratatul privind Uniunea European , prevede m suri de evitare a riscurilor Þ nanciare


i de protejare a intereselor statelor membre. Documentul a fost ulterior armonizat, prin convenirea a trei Protocoale privind protejarea intereselor Þ nanciare, respectiv: Protocolul la Conven ia privind protejarea intereselor Þ nanciare ale Comunit ilor Europene încheiat la 27 septembrie 1996 în temeiul articolului K.3 din Tratatul privind Uniunea European ; Protocolul privind interpretarea cu titlu preliminar de c tre Curtea de Justi ie a Comunit ilor Europene a Conven iei privind protejarea intereselor Þ nanciare ale Comunit ilor Europene, încheiat la 19 iunie 1997 în temeiul articolului K.3 din Tratatul privind Uniunea European ; Al Doilea Protocol la Conven ia privind protejarea intereselor Þ nanciare ale Comunit ilor Europene în temeiul articolului K.3 din Tratatul privind Uniunea European . Conven ia privind constituirea OÞ ciului European al Poli iei (Conven ia Europol), încheiat la 26 iulie 1995 în temeiul dispozi iilor articolului K.3 din Tratatul privind Uniunea European a fost completat i actualizat ulterior prin: Protocolul cu privire la interpretarea cu titlu

preliminar de c tre Curtea de Justi ie a Comunit ilor Europene a Conven iei privind constituirea OÞ ciului European al Poli iei, încheiat la 24 iulie 1996 în temeiul articolului K.3 din Tratatul privind Uniunea European ; Protocolul cu privire la privilegiile i imunit ile Europol, ale membrilor organelor sale, ale directorilor adjunc i i ale angaja ilor Europol, încheiat la 19 iunie 1997, în temeiul articolului K.3 din Tratatul privind Uniunea European i al articolului 41 alineatul (3) din Conven ia Europol; Protocolul de modiÞ care a articolului 2 i a anexei la Conven ia privind constituirea OÞ ciului European al Poli iei (Conven ia Europol), încheiat la 30 noiembrie 2000, în temeiul articolului 43 alineatul (3) din Conven ia Europol; Protocolul de modiÞ care a Conven iei privind consti tuirea OÞ ciului European al Poli iei (Conven ia Europol) i a Protocolului cu privire la privilegiile i imunit ile Europol, ale membrilor organelor sale, ale directorilor adjunc i i ale angaja ilor Europol, încheiat la 28 noiem brie 2002; Protocolul de modiÞ care a Conven iei privind consti tuirea OÞ ciului European al Poli iei (Conven ia Europol), încheiat la 27 noiembrie 2003 în temeiul articolului 43 alineatul (3) din respectiva Conven ie. Conven ia privind utilizarea tehnologiei informa iilor de c tre serviciile vamale a fost încheiat la 26 iulie 1995 în temeiul articolului K.3 din Tratatul privind Uniunea European i completat ulterior prin: Protocolul cu privire la interpretarea cu titlu preliminar de c tre Curtea de Justi ie a Comunit ilor Europene a Conven iei privind utilizarea tehnologiei informa iilor de c tre serviciile vamale, încheiat la 29 noiembrie 1996 în temeiul articolului K.3 din Tratatul privind Uniunea European ; Protocolul cu privire la domeniul de aplicare a no iunii de sp lare a produselor rezultate din s vâr irea de infrac iuni în cadrul Conven iei privind utilizarea tehno logiei


informa iilor de c tre serviciile vamale, precum i cu privire la includerea num rului de înmatriculare al mijloacelor de transport în cadrul conven iei, încheiat la 12 martie 1999 în temeiul articolului K.3 din Tratatul privind Uniunea European ; Protocolul de modiÞ care a Conven iei privind utilizarea tehnologiei informa iilor de c tre serviciile vamale în sensul constituirii unei baze de date pentru identiÞ carea dosarelor vamale, încheiat la 8 mai 2003 în temeiul articolului 34 alineatul (3) din Tratatul privind Uniunea European . La data de 26 mai 1997 a fost încheiat Conven ia cu privire la combaterea actelor de corup ie care implic func ionari ai Comunit ilor Europene sau func ionari ai statelor membre ale Uniunii Europene, în temeiul articolului K.3 alineatul (2) litera (c) din Tratatul privind Uniunea European . Men ion m, de asemenea, Conven ia cu privire la asisten a reciproc i cooperarea între administra iile vamale, încheiat la 18 decembrie 1997 în

temeiul articolului K.3 din Tratatul privind Uniunea European ; Conven ia cu privire la dec derea din dreptul de a conduce autovehicule, încheiat la 17 iunie 1998 în temeiul articolului K.3 din Tratatul privind Uniunea European ; Conven ia cu privire la asisten a juridic reciproc în materie penal între statele membre ale Uniunii Europene, adoptat de Consiliu la 29 mai 2000 în temeiul articolului K.3 din Tratatul privind Uniunea European , completat prin Protocolul la Conven ia cu privire la asisten a juridic reciproc în materie penal între statele membre ale Uniunii Europene, adoptat de c tre Consiliu la 16 octombrie 2001 în temeiul articolului 34 alineatul (3) din Tratatul privind Uniunea European .

Concluzii Toate aceste documente (conven ii i protocoale) au devenit obligatorii pentru România de la data ader rii. Cei interesa i în cunoa terea detaliat a acestor documente le pot consulta pe internet sau în arhiva Biroului pentru Integrare European . Prevederile documentelor prezentate vor marca, f r îndoial , parcursul european al României i în perioada urm toare, marcat de revenirea economic i de perspectiva trecerii la moneda unic european . Din studiul întreprins de autori se desprinde concluzia c România a f cut eforturi în concordan cu anexele stabilite la semnarea protocolului de aderare în Uniunea European . Se eviden iaz m surile care mai trebuie întreprinse astfel încât România s se integreze cât mai rapid la toate standardele prev zute în directivele Uniunii europene.


BibliograÞ e selectiv 1. Anghel, M.G., Anghelache, C. and Dumitrescu, D. (2016). Investment funds and

portfolio of loan guarantees as Þ nancial steps proposals to support innovative Small and Medium Enterprises. Theoretical and Applied Economics, Volume XXIII, No.3 (608), Autumn, pp. 119-126

2. Anghel, M.G., Manole, A. and Stoica, R. (2016). Correlation between direct foreign investments and import – cantitative model of analyse. Romanian Statistical Review, Supplement, no. 10, pp. 106-109

3. Anghel, M.G., Dumitrescu, D., Dumitrescu, D. and Ni , G.(2016). Role of banks in in European funds absorption to maintain macroeconomic stability. Romanian Statistical Review, Supplement, no. 9, pp. 43-49

4. Anghel, M.G. (2015). Analysis on the Indicators related to the structuring of the Monetary Mass in Romania after the adhesion to the European Union. Romanian Statistical Review, Supplement, Vol. 63, Issue 6/2015, pp. 26-33

5. Anghelache, C. (2007-2016). Colec ia de volume România. Starea economic , Editura Economic , Bucure ti

6. Anghelache, C. (2016). The analysis of the economic growth of Romania by using linear simple and multiple regression model. XXII International ScientiÞ c Conference of the PGV Network “The European challenges. Union Globalized or localized? The transformations of economics, societies and cultures of the EU into the World”, 15-17 September 2016, Warsaw, Poland, pp. 29-45

7. Anghelache, C., Anghel, M.G., Diaconu, A., Badiu, A. and Ni , G. (2016). Modele utilizate în analiza absorb iei fondurilor Comunitare, Proceedings of the International Symposium „Romania in the European Union – Methods and Models of Macroeconomic Analysis and Prognosis”, Universitatea „Artifex” din Bucure ti, 19-20 mai 2016, Editura Artifex, Bucure ti, pp. 278-292

8. Anghelache, C., Anghelache, G.V. and Anghel, M.G. (2016). Analysis of the Evolution of Romanian Foreign Commercial Exchange. Romanian Statistical Review, Supplement, Issue 3/2016, pp. 82-90

9. Anghelache, C. and Anghel, M.G. (2014). Modelare economic . Concepte, teorie i studii de caz, Editura Economic , Bucure ti

10. Berezin, M. and Diez-Medrano, J. (2008). Distance matters: Place, political legitimacy and popular support for European integration. Comparative European Politics, 6: 1–32

11. Branten, E.and Purju, A. (2013). Innovative Financial Instruments in EU Funding Schemes. Baltic Journal of European Studies, Volume 3, Issue 1, pp. 121-135

12. Coeurdacier, N. and Martin, P. (2009). The geography of asset trade and the euro: Insiders and outsiders. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 23(2): 90 – 113

13. Gherman, M.G. (2012). The Impact of the European Funds in Romania. The Examination of the Problems and Solutions. International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Volume 2, Issue Special 1, pp. 233-237

14. Hill, C. and Smith, M. (2011). International relations and the European Union, Second Edition, Oxford University Press

15. Kennan, J. (2017). Open borders in the european union and beyond: migration ß ows and labor market implications, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Working Paper No 23048


16. Klein, P. and G. Ventura (2009). Productivity differences and the dynamic effects of labor movements. Journal of Monetary Economics, 56 (8), 1059 – 1073

17. Lane, P. R. (2006). The real effects of european monetary union, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 20: 47–66(20)

18. Manole, A, Dumitrescu, D. and Dumitrescu, D.V. (2016). Impact of EU funds absorption in ensuring macrostability. Romanian Statistical Review, Supplement, no. 9, pp. 30-35


20. Mihai eanu, S. (2014). Implica iile crizei Þ nanciare asupra adopt rii euro, în condi iile convergen ei economice. Cazul României, Academia Român , Institutul Na ional de Cercet ri Economice, Bucure ti

21. Neculita, V. et.al. (2013). European integration, Þ nancial resources and the absorption of European funds in Central and Eastern European Countries. Economics and Applied Informatics, Issue 2, pp. 33-38

22. Popa, L.R. and Chifane, C. (2013). The Weak Absorption Of The European Funds, One Of The Causes Of Romania’S Downshift In Comparison With The Other States Of The European Union. Management Strategies Journal, Volume 22, Issue Special, pp. 330-337

23. Santos Silva, J. and Tenreyro, S. (2010). Currency Unions in Prospect and Retrospect. Annual Review of Economics, 2: 51–74

24. Stoica, C. (2012). Odyssey of the European Funds Absorption Process in the Case of the Romanian Economy. International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Volume 2 (2012), Issue Special 1, pp. 84-88

25. Spiegel, M. M. (2009). Monetary and Þ nancial integration in the emu: Push or pull?, Review of International Economics, 17(4): 751–776


ROMANIA ON THE ROAD TO EUROPEAN INTEGRATION

Prof. Alexandru MANOLE PhD ([email protected])

„Artifex” University of Bucharest Prof. Radu Titus MARINESCU PhD ([email protected])

„Artifex”University of Bucharest Assoc. prof. Aurelian DIACONU PhD ([email protected])


Abstract In this article, the authors are concerned about the European path of Romania, on the path of European integration, in the post-accession period. The main milestones that Romania has to undertake in order to align with the European policies, mechanisms and standards are presented. Acceptance of Romania as a member of the European Union was made on the basis of documents, from which the accession treaty is important. The study is structured on the main areas where Romania, after signing the accession documents, has to comply with the European Union standards. Thus, the negotiated chapters on accession, which stipulate deadlines and measures to be taken, are mentioned. The authors highlighted the successes so far, emphasizing what measures should be taken according to the deadlines mentioned in each case. Keywords: accession, integration, Romania, European Union, documents JEL ClassiÞ cation: O11, P41

Introduction Romania’s accession to the European Union was a pleasant and signiÞ cant moment. The actual integration and especially the „advantageous for Romania” application of the programs of measures is the serious and high responsibility for the governors in our country. The Þ ve years that have already passed have shown weaknesses for Romania, a country where the „electoral campaign theme” is a permanent threat in 2012. Although there are promises and guarantees that no negative issues will happen , Microstructure and macroeconomic activity may be destructive as though we are still reserved to consider them. That is why we are putting forward paper on the pre-accession program.


The steps taken to date in harmonizing legislation, the conditions for integration in the European Union have not been accompanied by a concrete post-accession program. The war „on the Bucharest-Brussels route” or „between the Cotroceni palaces, Victoria and the Chambers of Parliament” did not have an economic and Þ nancial effect for Romania precisely because of the lack of an appropriate own program of accessing Community funds and of aligning Economy to Union standards.

Literature review Klein and Ventura (2009) analyze the dynamic effects of labor mobility, Kennan (2017) is concerned about the same issue under „open borders” policies in the EU and beyond. Popa and Chifane (2013) study the correlation between the absorption of European funds and Romania’s economic situation compared to other states, Gherman (2012) analyzes the impact of European funds on Romania and focuses on the problems and solutions they face. Stoica (2012) addresses a close theme. Hill and Smith (2011) describe international relations at EU level. Mihai eanu (2014) studies the effects of the Þ nancial crisis on Romania’s goal of adopting the euro. Anghelache (2007-2016) describes in detail the economic condition of Romania in the post-accession period. Spiegel (2009) addresses the theme of Þ nancial-monetary integration. Anghelache, Anghelache and Anghel (2016) analyzed the evolution of Romania’s foreign trade. Coeurdacier and Martin (2009) are concerned with the geographical distribution of commodity trade. Anghel, Anghelache and Dumitrescu (2016) is concerned with Þ nancial tools dedicated to innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, Branten and Purju (2013) are concerned about innovative Þ nancial instruments in community funding schemes. Lane (2006) analyzes the real effects of the monetary union approach at European level. Anghel, Manole and Stoica (2016) present a quantitative model describing the link between foreign direct investment and import. Anghel, Dumitrescu, Dumitrescu and Ni (2016) describe the role of the banking system in the absorption of European funds, as a determinant factor for ensuring the stability of the national economy, Manole, Dumitrescu and Dumitrescu (2016), develops on a close theme. Santos Silva and Tenreyro (2010) analyze the past and future of monetary unions. Neculita et.al. (2013) is developing a study on the absorption of community funds at the level of the Central and Eastern European region. Anghelache and Anghel (2014) describe the tools of economic modeling. Anghel (2015) studies the structure of monetary mass in Romania in the post-accession period. Anghelache (2016) describes the use of simple and multiple regression models in analyzing Romania’s economic


growth. Anghelache, Anghel, Diaconu, Badiu and Ni (2016) propose a set of models for analyzing the absorption of European funds. Berezin and Diez-Medrano (2008) evaluate support for European integration.

Methodology of research and data A realistic presentation of what integration means from the point of view of the program to be followed and the efforts will highlight the urgent need for a concrete post-accession integration program. The following approach is useful at least through the opportunity to understand the advantages of Romania’s accession to the European Union. We must say that the Romanian Parliament, through Law no. 157 of 24 May 2005, ratiÞ ed the Treaty between the Member States of the European Union, signed with Romania and Bulgaria, on the other hand, in Luxembourg, on 25 April 2005, expressing the mandate of Romania’s legislative to move on. By this law, a series of regulations are made. Thus, the Treaty between the Member States of the European Union and Bulgaria and Romania is ratiÞ ed in connection with the accession of Romania and Bulgaria to the European Union, a document signed by Romania in Luxembourg on 25 April 2005. Secondly, the Parliament, the President of Romania, the government and the judicial authority guarantee the fulÞ llment of Romania’s obligations resulting from the accession act and from the provisions of the constituent treaties of the European Union, as well as from other binding Community regulations. Also, within the meaning of the Accession Treaty, the Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe, the Treaty establishing the European Community, the Treaty establishing the European Atomic Energy Community and the Treaty on European Union, as well as other Binding Community rules, the following terms are deÞ ned as follows: a State national means a natural or legal person having the nationality or nationality of that State in accordance with its domestic law; By Romanian national means the natural or legal person having the nationality, respectively the Romanian nationality, according to the Romanian legislation. This law was then promulgated by Decree no. 465 of May 24, 2005, bearing the stamp and signature of the President of Romania. On the basis of the negotiations for the accession of Bulgaria and Romania to the European Union in Brussels on 31 March 2005, the Accession Treaty and the drafts of other necessary legislative acts and instruments were agreed. This document comprises Þ ve parts, namely: Part I - Principles underlying the European Union Constitution; Part II - Adaptations to the Constitution, namely International provisions and other adaptations; Part III


- Permanent provisions, which stipulate the adaptations of the acts adopted by the institutions and others to be harmonized; Part IV - Temporary provisions, focusing on transitional measures, institutional provisions, Þ nancial provisions and other provisions; Part V - Provisions on the implementation of the Protocol, with an emphasis on the composition of the institutions and bodies of each State, the applicability of acts of the institutions and the Þ nal provisions. The protocol is accompanied by nine annexes, detailing each point and subpoint. On 31 March 2005, the Accession Treaty, which includes draft legislative acts and other instruments agreed between the signatory countries, was agreed. Article 1 states that Romania and Bulgaria become the present Treaty of the European Union. The two countries become part of the Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe and the Treaty establishing the European Atomic Energy Community, as subsequently amended or supplemented. The conditions and arrangements for admission are set out in the attached Protocol, the provisions of which form an integral part of the Treaty. The Protocol, its annexes and appendices, annexed to the Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe and the Treaty establishing the European Atomic Energy Community, shall form an integral part of this Treaty. In Article 2, it is inserted that if the Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe is not in force at the date of accession. Bulgaria and Romania become parties to the Treaties on which the European Union is founded as subsequently amended and supplemented. In that case, Article 1, paragraphs 2 to 4, shall apply from the date of entry into force of the Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe. The conditions for admission and the adjustments to the Treaties on which the European Union is based, which arise from accession and which apply from the date of accession until the date of entry into force of the Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe, are laid down in an attached document To the Treaty. If the Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe enters into force after accession, the Protocol referred to in Article 1 shall supersede the act subsequently laid down from the date of its entry into force. The provisions of the previous Protocol do not produce any new legal effects, maintaining the conditions laid down in the Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe. Acts adopted prior to the entry into force of the Protocol under this Treaty or the Act referred to above shall remain in force and shall continue to have effect until such acts are amended or repealed.


Article 3 states that the provisions on the rights and obligations of the Member States as well as the powers and competences of the institutions of the European Union, as set out in the Treaties to which Romania and Bulgaria become Parties, shall also apply in the context of this Treaty. Article 4 contains a number of emphasis such as: „The Treaty shall be ratiÞ ed by the High Contracting Parties in accordance with their constitutional rules”, „Instruments of ratiÞ cation shall be deposited with the Government of the Italian Republic no later than 31 December 2006”. Under these circumstances, the Treaty enters into force on 1 January 2007, provided that all instruments of ratiÞ cation have been deposited before 1 January 2007. There is an exception which provides that if one of the signatory States has not deposited its instrument of ratiÞ cation in due time, the Treaty shall enter into force for the other State which has deposited its instrument. In these circumstances, the Council, acting unanimously, shall immediately decide on the necessary adaptations. Without prejudice to the provisions on the deposit of all necessary instruments of ratiÞ cation, the Treaty shall enter into force on 1 January 2008, if the Council adopts a decision on both adherent States in accordance with Article 39 of the Protocol. If such a decision is adopted with respect to only one of the acceding States, this Treaty shall enter into force for that State on 1 January 2008. It is also underlined that, without prejudice to the provisions of the previous paragraph, the Union institutions may adopt, before accession, the measures provided for in order to harmonize legislation. These measures shall enter into force only if and on the date on which the Treaty enters into force for each Party or for all in one place. Article 5 highlights the fact that the text of the Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe, drawn up in the Bulgarian and Romanian languages, is annexed to the Treaty. These texts shall be authentic under the same conditions as those of the texts translated into the languages of the other countries already members of the European Union. The last article states that the Treaty is drawn up in a single copy in the language versions of each of the signatory Member States and all documents in the respective languages are equally authentic and deposited in the archives of the Government of the Italian Republic which will transmit a certiÞ ed copy thereof to each of them Between the governments of the other states. Article 3 (3) of the Protocol of Accession of Romania to the European Union clariÞ es and speciÞ es the Conventions (Protocols) to which Romania becomes a party on the date of accession. These documents become obligatory


for Romania, containing rights and obligations according to which the legislation, but especially the attitude of our country within the Union, must be harmonized. This category includes new basic documents, along with others (annexes) that have been agreed upon under the main ones. Convention concluded on 19 June 1980 on the law applicable to contractual obligations, opened for signature in Rome on 19 June 1980. A number of speciÞ c documents were subsequently agreed on this document of principles. The Convention of 10 April 1984 concerns the accession of the Hellenic Republic to the Convention on the Law Applicable to Contractual Obligations, opened for signature in Rome on 19 June 1980. The First Protocol of 19 December 1988 concerns the interpretation by the Court of Justice of the European Communities of the Convention on The law applicable to contractual obligations, opened for signature in Rome on 19 June 1980. The Second Protocol of 19 December 1988 governs the investiture of the Court of Justice of the European Communities with certain powers to interpret the Convention on the Law Applicable to Contractual Obligations, opened for signature in Rome on 19 June 1980. The Convention of 18 May 1992 provides for the accession of the Kingdom of Spain and the Portuguese Republic to the Convention on the Law Applicable to Contractual Obligations, opened for signature in Rome on 19 June 1980. The Convention concluded on 29 November 1996 concerns the accession of the Republic of Austria, the Republic of Finland and the Kingdom of Sweden to the Convention on the law applicable to contractual obligations, opened for signature in Rome on 19 June 1980, and to the First and Second Protocols on its interpretation of To the Court of Justice. The Convention concluded on 23 July 1990 regulates the elimination of double taxation in relation to the adjustment of proÞ ts of associated enterprises. The Convention of 21 December 1995 envisages the accession of the Republic of Austria, the Republic of Finland and the Kingdom of Sweden to the Convention on the elimination of double taxation. This document sets out the income tax regime for the associated companies. We also mention the Protocol of 25 May 1999 amending the Convention of 23 July 1990 on the elimination of double taxation in connection with the adjustment of proÞ ts of associated enterprises. The Convention on the Protection of the European Communities’ Financial Interests, concluded on 26 July 1995 under Article K.3 of the Treaty on European Union, provides for measures to avoid Þ nancial risks and to


protect the interests of the Member States. The document was subsequently harmonized by agreeing three Protocols on the protection of Þ nancial interests, namely: the Protocol to the Convention on the Protection of the European Communities’ Financial Interests concluded on 27 September 1996 under Article K.3 of the Treaty on European Union; Protocol on the preliminary interpretation by the Court of Justice of the European Communities of the Convention on the protection of the European Communities’ Þ nancial interests, concluded on 19 June 1997 under Article K.3 of the Treaty on European Union; The Second Protocol to the Convention on the protection of the European Communities’ Þ nancial interests pursuant to Article K.3 of the Treaty on European Union. The Convention on the Establishment of a European Police OfÞ ce (Europol Convention) concluded on 26 July 1995 under the provisions of Article K.3 of the Treaty on European Union was subsequently supplemented and updated by: the Protocol on the preliminary interpretation by the Court of Justice Of the European Communities of the Convention on the Establishment of a European Police OfÞ ce concluded on 24 July 1996 under Article K.3 of the Treaty on European Union; The Protocol on the privileges and immunities of Europol, members of its organs, deputy directors and employees of Europol, concluded on 19 June 1997 pursuant to Article K.3 of the Treaty on European Union and Article 41 (3) of the Europol Convention; Protocol amending Article 2 and the Annex to the Convention on the establishment of the European Police OfÞ ce (Europol Convention) done on 30 November 2000 under Article 43 (3) of the Europol Convention; Protocol amending the Convention on the Establishment of a European Police OfÞ ce (Europol Convention) and the Protocol on the Privileges and Immunities of Europol, its Members, Deputy Directors and Europol Employees, signed on 28 November 2002; Protocol amending the Convention on the Establishment of a European Police OfÞ ce (Europol Convention), concluded on 27 November 2003 pursuant to Article 43 (3) of the said Convention. The Convention on the use of information technology by customs services was concluded on 26 July 1995 under Article K.3 of the Treaty on European Union and subsequently supplemented by: the Protocol on the preliminary interpretation by the Court of Justice of the European Communities of the Convention On the use of information technology by customs services concluded on 29 November 1996 under Article K.3 of the Treaty on European Union; Protocol on the scope of the concept of laundering of proceeds from crime in the framework of the Convention on the use of information technology by customs services and on the inclusion of the registration number of means of transport under the Convention, On 12 March 1999 pursuant to Article


K.3 of the Treaty on European Union; Protocol amending the Convention on the use of information technology by customs services for the purpose of establishing a customs Þ les identiÞ cation database, concluded on 8 May 2003 pursuant to Article 34 (3) of the Treaty on European Union. On 26 May 1997, the Convention on the Þ ght against corruption involving ofÞ cials of the European Communities or ofÞ cials of Member States of the European Union was concluded on the basis of Article K.3 (2) (c) of the Treaty on European Union EU. We also mention the Convention on Mutual Assistance and Co-operation between Customs Administrations, done on 18 December 1997 under Article K.3 of the Treaty on European Union; The Convention on driving disqualiÞ cations concluded on 17 June 1998 under Article K.3 of the Treaty on European Union; Convention on Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters between the Member States of the European Union, adopted by the Council on 29 May 2000 on the basis of Article K.3 of the Treaty on European Union, supplemented by the Protocol to the Convention on Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters Between Member States of the European Union, adopted by the Council on 16 October 2001 pursuant to Article 34 (3) of the Treaty on European Union.

Conclusion All these documents (conventions and protocols) have become binding on Romania since the date of accession. Those interested in the detailed knowledge of these documents can consult them on the Internet or in the archives of the European Integration Bureau. The provisions of the presented documents will undoubtedly mark the European course of Romania in the coming period, marked by the economic recovery and the prospect of the changeover to the European single currency. From the study undertaken by the authors, it is concluded that Romania has made efforts in accordance with the annexes established at the signing of the accession protocol in the European Union. It highlights the steps that need to be taken so that Romania can integrate as quickly as possible with all the standards stipulated in the directives of the European Union.

References 1. Anghel, M.G., Anghelache, C. and Dumitrescu, D. (2016). Investment funds and

portfolio of loan guarantees as Þ nancial steps proposals to support innovative Small and Medium Enterprises. Theoretical and Applied Economics, Volume XXIII, No.3 (608), Autumn, pp. 119-126

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Remiten ele, factor de reducere a s r ciei

Prof. univ. dr. Constantin ANGHELACHE ([email protected])

Academia de Studii Economice, Bucure ti / Universitatea „Artifex”, Bucure tiProf. univ. dr. Ion PÂR ACHI ([email protected]) Academia de Studii Economice, MoldovaConf. univ. dr. M d lina-Gabriela ANGHEL ([email protected])

Universitatea „Artifex„ din Bucure tiDrd. Georgiana NI ([email protected]) Academia de Studii Economice din Bucure ti

Abstract În acest articol ne propunem realizarea unei analize a s r ciei, a m surilor i indicatorilor acesteia, precum i prezentarea unor modele de analiz a impactului remiten elor asupra s r ciei. S r cia este efectul nivelului de dezvoltare al unei ri, concretizat în indicatorul produsul intern brut pe un locuitor. O semniÞ ca ie aparte cu privire la standardul vie ii este dat de indicatorul paritatea puterii de cump rare. Un aspect speciÞ c României, ca stat membru al Uniunii Europene, îl reprezint migra ia unui num r foarte mare de persoane în celelalte state. Ca efect al valoriÞ c rii directivei europene privind libera circula ie a persoanei, deci i a for ei de munc , apare remiten a sau, mai pe în elesul tuturor, repatrierea sumelor celor care lucreaz în exterior i impozitarea acestora. Libera circula ie a persoanelor în interiorul rilor membre ale Uniunii Europene are efect i asupra pie ei for ei de munc în România. F r aceast „circula ie”, pia a muncii ar Þ sufocat , iar cifra omajului ar atinge un nivel neb nuit. Cuvinte cheie: s r cie, indicatori, calitatea vie ii, remiten e, inß uen pozitiv ClasiÞ carea JEL: I132, P36, P46

Introducere S r cia constituie un fenomen c ruia i se acord aten ie pe plan intern i interna ional. Pentru a reliefa evolu ia bun st rii popula iei am pornit de

la analiza indicatorului PIB/locuitor. De asemenea, în studiul efectuat, am f cut referiri i la indicatorul Paritatea Puterii de Cump rare care asigur o comparabilitate interna ional optim cu privire la standardul de via din

rile membre ale Uniunii Europene sau chiar în context mai larg. Pornind de la calitatea României de stat membru al Uniunii europene i, având în vedere directiva liberei circula ii a persoanelor, am analizat efectul migr rii economice. Astfel, pe lâng faptul c identiÞ c m efecte pozitive asupra ratei


omajului în România, autorii au f cut referiri am nun ite privind efectul remiten elor asupra standardului vie ii, deci i a s r ciei. S-a precizat c pot s Þ e utilizate modele econometrice de analiz a corela iei dintre remiten e i s r cie (calitatea vie ii).

Literature review Ghatak (2015) abordeaz , din punct de vedere teoretic, capcanele s r ciei i politicile anti-s r cie. Anghelache (2008), Anghelache i Anghel (2016) se preocup de instrumentele, metodele i conceptele statisticii economice. Anghelache, Mitru i Voineagu (2013) abordeaz componenta macroeconomic a statisticii i se concentreaz pe Sistemul Conturilor Na ionale, ca instrument de calcul i analiz la nivel macroeconomic, Anghelache et.al. (2007) abordeaz analiza macroeconomic . Coudouel, Hentschel i Wodon (2002) dezvolt pe tema m sur rii i analizei s r ciei. Chukwuone (2007) et. al abordeaz situa ia remiten elor i a s r ciei/inegalit ii în economia nigerian . Pop (2009), Anghelache, Isaic-Maniu, Mitru i Voineagu (2006) se preocup de indicatorii dedica i m sur rii s r ciei, Briciu (2009) abordeaz o tem similar , Anghelache, Isaic-Maniu, Mitru i Voineagu (2006) realizeaz un studiu asupra calit ii vie ii din România.

Gubert, Lassourd i Mesple-Somps (2010) analizeaz impactul remiten elor asupra s r ciei i inegalit ii, pe baza datelor care caracterizeaz statul Mali. M rginean i Precupe u (2011) este o lucrare de referin asupra calit ii vie ii, Anghelache (2016) descrie starea economic a României în anul 2016, printre temele abordate se înscrie i studiul calit ii vie ii. Nicol escu, Cace i Cace (2012) au abordat Þ nan area proiectelor dedicate economiei sociale. Kray i McKenize (2014) studiaz , pe baz de date concrete, anumite caracteristici ale fenomenului s r ciei. Lucrarea coordonat de ZamÞ r (2017) reprezint o radiograÞ e asupra calit ii vie ii din România, al turi de un studiu asupra perspectivelor acestui complex de indicatori pentru anul de referin 2038. Katsushi, Raghav, Abdilahi i Nidhi (2012) analizeaz impactul remiten elor asupra cre terii economice si s r ciei. Bibi i Duclos (2007) evalueaz eÞ cien a anumitor politici economice. Calvo i Dercon (2009) analizeaz fenomenul s r ciei cronice. Carter i Barrett (2006) se preocup de o tem apropiat . Gertler, Martinez i Rubio-Codina (2012) au în vedere investi iile destinate ridic ri standardului de via pe termen lung. Koutmalasou (2011) dezvolt pe tema celor mai bune practici în domeniul social.

Metodologia cercet rii i date Începem analiza s r ciei i a indicatorilor acesteia prin deÞ nirea conceptului de “calitatea a vie ii”.


Conceputul de calitate a vie ii, a ap rut în anii ’60 în rile dezvoltate care urm reau o cre tere a bun st rii, Þ e prin alocarea corespunz toare a resurselor materiale, Þ e prin aplicarea unor m suri de corectare a mecanismului economico-social (de ex: degradarea mediului înconjur tor, s r cia, educa ia, etc.). M surarea calit ii vie ii difer de la ar la ar , de la popula ie la popula ie, de acceea a fost dezvoltat un sistem de indicatori de m surare acesteia. Calitatea vie ii reprezint un concept larg, care analizeaz satifac ia simultan a condi iilor în care oamenii tr iesc, condi ii de natur Þ zic , economic , social , cultural i politic . Printre indicatorii cei mai întâlni i în economie în analiza calit ii vie ii este PIB-ul, îns calitatea vie ii depinde de mult mai mul i factori, în afara de PIB. Printre domeniile si problemele importante, ce trebuie luate in considerare in studiul calitatii vietii, amintim: Popula ia: mi carea popula iei, migra ia interna ional , distribu ia geograÞ c , grupe speciale de popula ie; S n tatea, speran a de via ; Educa ia, nivelul de preg tire; Activitatea economic , omajul; Mediul înconjur tor etc. Popula ia, primul indicator, reprezint baza Þ ec rei analize sau cercet ri sociale. În cadrul acestui articol, interesul se îndreapta c tre analiza corela iei dintre reducerea s r ciei i cre terea economic . Cum men ionam mai devreme, calitatea vie ii reprezint satisfacerea nevoilor popula iei. În primul rând, trebuie îndeplinite nevoile primare ale popula iei, i anume: alimenta ie, îmbr c minte, confortul locuin ei, etc. Atunci când aceste nevoi primare nu sunt îndeplinite, ajungem s vorbim despre s r cie i pragul de s r cie. S r cia depinde de distribu ia venitului i consumului, atunci când vorbim de cre tere economic , în sensul cre terii venitului i consumului mediu. Pentru ca o persoan s nu Þ e considerat s rac , trebuie s ating cel pu in pragul de s r cie care reprezint un instrument de evaluare a s r ciei, care deÞ ne te nivelul de trai. S r cia este multidimensionala. Indicele Saraciei Multidimensionale (MPI) completeaza analiza monetara a saraciei, tinand cont de de trei dimenisuni: s n tate, educa ie i standardul de via . Conceptul de s r cie în sens larg, analizeaz individul, un grup de persoane în compara ie cu al i indivizi, grupuri de persoane din comunitate. Analiza se realizeaz prin stabilirea unui standard de compara ie, ce poate Þ reprezentat prin pragul de s r cie sau nivelul minim de trai, care împarte gospod riile în s race i non s race pe baza nivelului de venit. Analiza s r ciei nu presupune doar venituri mici sau lipsa averii, cât i lipsa de acces la educa ie, la sistemul de s n tate sau locuri de munc mai

bine pl tite.


Diferen ierea dintre gospod rii s race i non s race, din punct de vedere economic, se realizeaz prin raportare la nivelul venitului, care arat i nivelul de consum al gospod riei respective. De accea, remiten ele, transferuri de bani de la migran i c tre familiile lor, au un rol important în reducerea s r ciei i ridicarea nivelului de trai a gospod riilor ce primesc remiten e. S r cia poate Þ absolut sau relativ . S r cia absolut , deÞ ni ie valabil în toate economiliile, este asociat cu nivelul de subzisten – deÞ ne te o persoan f r acces la: ap , mâncare, îmbr c minte i ad post. S r cia absolut face cel mai adesea referire la deprivarea material , lipsa venitului care s acopere nevoile primare ale popula iei. S r cia relativ este deÞ nit din punct de vedere al contextului social, se raporteaz la nivelul bun starii întregii popula ii, face referire la deprivare, ca Þ ind lipsa unui venit mininm ce asigur existen a unui individ, în contextual social, persoanele s race sunt private de beneÞ ciile unei economii moderne (ex ap , cur enie).

Principalele metode de m surare a s r ciei S r cia poate Þ m surat folosind indicatori monetari: se poate alege între utilizarea venitului sau a consumului. Unii economi ti sunt de p rere ca utilizarea consumului pentru m surarea s r ciei este mai adecvat, deoarece cheltuielile pentru consum, reß ect nu numai capacitatea unei gospod rii de a accesa bunuri i servicii, pe baza venitului curent, ci de a accesa credite sau de a economisi. Pe de alt parte, m surarea s r ciei prin intermediul venitul are ca avantaj posibilitatea includerii mai multor surse de venit, ce pot Þ comparate cu sursele oÞ ciale, de ex salariul se poate veriÞ ca prin intermediul ß utura ului de salariu, remiten ele - transferurile din str in tate, pot Þ veriÞ cate pe baza unei chitan e de încasare a banilor, num r de transfer, etc. Dac exist date disponibile pentru ambii indicatori: venit i consum, se poate m sura s r cia utilizând ambii indicatori i apoi se pot compara rezultatele. Chiar dac , în mod tradi ional s r cia a fost m surat în termeni monetari, aceasta are i alte dimensiuni non-monetare, care pot Þ analizate. Dintre acestea amintim: s n tatea i nutri ia – analiza s r ciei folosind statusul s n ta ii i nutri ia poate lua în calcul statusul nutri ional al copiilor din gospod rie, speran a de via a unor grupuri din popula ie, accesul la servicii medicale; educa ia – pentru m surarea s r ciei utilizând ca indicator educa ia, se poate lua în calcul: gradul de analfabetize în cadrul unor grupuri din popula ie, ultima form de înv mânt sau num rul anilor de studiu i combinarea mai multor aspecte ale s r ciei – de exemplu, s-ar putea crea un indicator pentru


m surarea s r ciei inând cont de: venit, s n tate, bunuri de inute i educa ie, în cadrul unor gospod rii alese din popula ie pentru studiu. Dup ce se stabile te metoda de m surare a s r ciei, adic prin intermediul venitului, consumului sau a indicatori non-monetari, se stabile te pragul de s r cie, care face diferen a dintre persoane s race i non-s race. A a cum am men ionat mai sus, exist dou posibilit i de m surare a s r ciei: absolut sau relativ . Este necesar s se stabileasc un prag de s r cie: - relativ, deÞ nit prin raportul dintre venit i consum intr-o ar , de exemplu în România pragul de s r cie este stabilit la nivelul de 60% (din mediana veniturilor disponibile pe adult echivalent i total popula ie, conform Institutuli National de Statistica - INS); - absolut care se poate baza pe estim ri ale costului pentru alimentele de baz , costul co ului alimentar considerat minimal pentru s n tatea i nutri ia unei familii tipice. De-a lungul studiilor s-a demonstrat c alegerea unui prag absolut este mai relevant în m surarea s r ciei. Printre cele mai întâlnite metode de a m sura s r cia, care este o func ie matematic ce combin indicatori de m surare ai bun st rii gospod riei cu pragul de s r cie determinat, se num r : - Inciden a s r ciei se calculeaz ca procent din popula ie ce nu-i permite s cumpere co ul de baz de bunuri, se refer mai ales la partea

din popula ie cu un venit sau cheltuieli, y, sub pragul de s r cie stabilit, z. Presupunând ca popula ia total este noteaz cu n, popula ia s rac cu q, formula de calcul pentru inciden a s r ciei (headcount index) este urm toarea:

- Profunzimea s r ciei – prin intermediul profunzimii s r ciei se estimeaz resursele necesare pentru a aduce persoanele s race la nivelul pragului stabilit de s r cie.

, unde yi, reprezint venitul individului i, iar suma se calculeaz inând cont doar de persoanele s race; - Severitatea s r ciei care calculeaz distan a dintre persoanele s race si pragul de s r cie stabilit, cât i inegalit ile dintre persoanele s race. Se caluleaz utilizând formula:

, formul utilizat la nivel individual


Remiten ele contribuie la reducerea s r ciei A a cum am men ionat în prima parte a articolului, într-o cercetare de natur social , cum este cea de m surare a s r ciei, popula ia este un indicator important. Acest indicator este important si în analiza impactului remiten elor în reducerea s r ciei. Remiten ete sunt transferuri efectuate de migran i, persoane ce au plecat în c utarea unui loc de munc mai bine pl tit i sunt destinate membrilor familiei migran ilor din rile de origine, ri în curs de dezvoltare. Având în vedere c în m surarea s r ciei, un indicator utilizat este venitul gospod riei, alc tuit din toate sursele de venit, remiten ele sunt considerate surse de venit din str in tate, care ajut gospod ria sa ajung sau chiar s dep easc pragul de s r cie stabilit în ara analizat . Impactul remiten elor în reducerea s r ciei poate Þ analizat, folosind ca indicator cheltuielile, prin estimarea func iei:

, unde - este termenul de eroare, care se presupune a Þ independent,

cu o distribu ie normal - reprezint cheltuiala pe cap de locuitor, iar - reprezint un vector de variabile explicative, ce con ine informa ii

despre remitente ele migran ilor i ocurile economice, ce pot Þ m surate prin pre urile la produsele alimentare si non-alimentare.

În acest caz, remiten ele sunt considerate transferuri exogene, ceea ce înseamn c aceast abordare este nerealist , deoarece remiten ele reprezint un substitut al venitului pe care un migrant poate l-ar realiza în ara de origine dac nu s-ar Þ decis s lucreze în str in tate. Aceste efecte trebuie avute în vedere pentru a calcula corect impactul remiten elor. De accea, una dintre metodele utilizate este de a estima valoarea veniturilor gospod riei în cazul în care migran ii ar Þ ales s r mân în gospod riile lor. Procedura este de a estima veniturile pe cap de locuitor dintr-o gospod rie, f r a ine cont de remiten e. Apoi, ecua ia estimat , va reprezenta baza pentru evaluarea impactului remiten elor asupra s r ciei, în venitul gospod riei, se va ine cont i de remiten ele primite pe cap de locuitor. În literatura economic de specialitate, ecua ia folosit în acest caz este:

, unde - reprezint cheltuiala pe cap de locuitor i; - este un vector care cuprinde caracteristicile gospod riei i; - este termenul de perturba ie aleatoare.


Rezultatele celor dou modele de prezicere a chelutielilor pe cap de locuitor dintr-o gospod rie incluzînd i excluzând remiten ele, pot Þ apoi comparate i se poate apoi determina impactul remite elor asupra s r ciei. Urmeaz intr-un viitor articol s se efectueze în practic aceste estim ri, luând ca ar de analiz , România, deoarece prezint caracteristicile necesare unui astfel de studiu: cu peste 5 milioane de migran i i un volum de remiten e de peste 3 mil US în 2016, conform datelor oÞ ciale prezentate de Banca Mondial . i mai important este c România, conform Eurostat, este a doua ar din Uniunea European cu popula ie expus riscului de s r cie, mai exact

37,3% din popula ia României.

Concluzii Din studiul efectuat se desprind o serie de concluzii teoretice i practice. S r cia are o leg tur direct cu evolu ia produsului intern brut pe un locuitor i, în subsidiar, i cu efectul pe care îl au remiten ele, rezultat al emigr rii

economice, stimulat i de directiva Uniunii Europene în domeniu. S r cia este un indicator important de studiat, deoarece ofer informa ii relevante despre popula ia unei ri, starea economic a acesteia, modalit ile prin care membri popula iei încearc s dep easc pragul de s r cie i sa- i asigure un nivel de trai decent. Remiten ele reprezint o surs important de venit pentru gospod riile cu membrii familiei pleca i în str in tate. BeneÞ ciile acestora au efect în primul rând asupra reducerii s r ciei i, implicit, în cre terea economic . Autorii se concentreaz pe metodele statistice care pot Þ utilizate pentru analiza s r ciei. Se expliciteay indicatorii utiliza i i se deÞ nesc categoriile statistico-economice speciÞ ce. Din studiul efectuat se desprinde concluzia c pot Þ utilizate i metode / modele econometrice care dau expresie cuantiÞ cat corela iei care exist între nivelul economic. Efectul remiten elor i stadiul s r ciei.

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REMITTANCES, A FACTOR FOR POVERTY REDUCTION

Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD ([email protected])

Bucharest University of Economic Studies / „Artifex” University of BucharestProf Ion PÂR ACHI PhD ([email protected]) ASE MoldovaAssoc. prof. M d lina-Gabriela ANGHEL PhD ([email protected])

„Artifex” University of Bucharest Georgiana NI PhD Student ([email protected]) Bucharest University of Economic Studies

Abstract In this article, we intend to analysis of poverty, poverty measures and indicators, as well as a presentation of the economic models for analyzing the impact of remittances on poverty. Poverty is the effect of a country’s level of development, materialized in the Gross Domestic Product per capita indicator. A particular signiÞ cance regarding the standard of life is given by the purchasing power parity indicator. A speciÞ c aspect of Romania, as a member state of the European Union, is the migration of a large number of people in the other states. As a result of the use of the European directive on the free movement of the person and thus of the labor force, the remittance or, for the sake of all, the repatriation of the sums of those who work abroad and their taxation is emerging. The free movement of persons within the member states of the European Union also has an effect on the labor market in Romania. Without this „movement”, the labor market would suffocate, and the unemployment Þ gure would reach unprecedented levels. Key words: poverty, indicators, quality of life, remittances, positive inß uence JEL ClassiÞ cation: I132, P36, P46

Introduction Poverty is a phenomenon that receives attention internally and internationally. To highlight the evolution of the welfare of the population, we started from the analysis of GDP per capita indicator. Also, in the study we also referred to the purchasing power parity indicator that ensures optimal international comparability regarding the standard of living in the EU member countries or even in the wider context. Starting from the quality of Romania as a member of the European Union and, having regard to the directive on the free movement of persons, we analyzed the effect of economic migration. Thus, in


addition to the fact that we identify positive effects on the unemployment rate in Romania, the authors made detailed references to the effect of remittances on the standard of life, and therefore of poverty. It has been mentioned that econometric models can be used to analyze the correlation between remittances and poverty (quality of life).

Literature review Ghatak (2015) approaches theoretically the poverty traps and anti-poverty policies. Anghelache (2008), Anghelache and Anghel (2016) are concerned with the tools, methods and concepts of economic statistics. Anghelache, Mitru and Voineagu (2013) approach the macroeconomic component of statistics and focus on the National Accounts System as a macroeconomic calculation and analysis tool, Anghelache et.al. (2007) addresses the macroeconomic analysis. Coudouel, Hentschel and Wodon (2002) develops on the subject of measuring and analyzing poverty. Chukwuone (2007) et. to address the situation of remittances and poverty / inequality in the Nigerian economy. Pop (2009), Anghelache, Isaic-Maniu, Mitru and Voineagu (2006) are concerned with the indicators dedicated to measuring poverty, Briciu (2009) approaches a similar theme, Anghelache, Isaic-Maniu, Mitru and Voineagu Quality of life in Romania. Gubert, Lassourd and Mesple-Somps (2010) analyze the impact of remittances on poverty and inequality, based on data that characterize the state of Mali. M rginean and Precupe u (2011) is a reference work on quality of life, Anghelache (2016) describes Romania’s economic condition in 2016, among which the study of the quality of life is included. Nicol escu, Cace and Cace (2012) approached the Þ nancing of social economy projects. Kray and McKenize (2014) study, on the basis of concrete data, certain characteristics of the phenomenon of poverty. The work coordinated by ZamÞ r (2017) is a radiography on the quality of life in Romania, alongside a study on the perspectives of this set of indicators for the reference year 2038. Katsushi, Raghav, Abdilahi and Nidhi (2012) analyzes the impact of remittances on economic growth and poverty . Bibi and Duclos (2007) assess the effectiveness of certain economic policies. Calvo and Dercon (2009) analyze the phenomenon of chronic poverty. Carter and Barrett (2006) are concerned about a close-up theme. Gertler, Martinez and Rubio-Codina (2012) are considering investments designed to raise the long-term living standard. Koutmalasou (2011) develops on best practices in the social Þ eld.

Methodology of research and data We begin the analysis of poverty and its indicators by deÞ ning the concept of “quality of life”


The quality of life concept, appeared in the 60s in developed countries that sought an increase in welfare, by allocating adequate material resources, or by correction measures of a socio-economic mechanism (for ex: environmental degradation, poverty, education, etc.). The quality of life measure differs by country, population, that’s why it developed a system of indicators for its measurement. Quality of life is a vast concept, which analyzes simultaneous conditions satisfaction under which people live, conditions of physical, economic, social, cultural and political nature. Among the most common indicators found in economy utilized for the quality of life analyses is GDP, but the quality of life depends on many more factors beyond GDP. Areas and important issues to be considered in the study of quality of life include: Population: population movement, international migration, geographical distribution, special groups of populations; Health, life expectancy; Education, level of education; Economic activity, unemployment; The environment, and other. Population, the Þ rst indicator, is the basis of every analysis or social research. In this article, the interest goes to analyze the correlation between economic development and poverty reduction. As mentioned earlier, quality of life represents meeting people’s needs. First, the primary needs of the population must be satisÞ ed, namely: food, clothing, home comfort, etc. When these basic needs are not met, we start to talk about poverty and the poverty level. Poverty depends on the distribution of income and consumption, when it comes to economic development, in the sense of average income and consumption increase. For a person to not be considered poor, must achieve at least the poverty level which is a poverty assessment tool, which deÞ ning the standard of living. Poverty is considered multidimensional. Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) complements the analysis of monetary poverty, considering three dimensions: health, education and living standards. The concept of poverty broadly examines the individual, a group of people compared to other individuals, groups of individuals in the community. The analysis is made by setting a standard of comparison that can be represented by the poverty level or the minimum level of living, which divides the poor and non-poor households based on income levels. Poverty analysis it doesn’t mean just small incomes or lack of wealth, but also and lack of access to education, healthcare or better paid jobs. Differentiation between poor and non-poor households economically speaking, is made in relation to income level, showing also the level of consumption of that household. That is why, remittances, money transfers


from migrants to their families play an important role in reducing poverty and in raising living standards of households that receive remittances. Poverty can be absolute or relative. Absolute poverty, deÞ nition applies to all economies is associated with the subsistence level - deÞ nes a person without access to: water, food, clothing and home. Absolute poverty it most often refers to material deprivation, lack of income to cover the basic needs of the population. Relative poverty is deÞ ned in terms of social context and it relates to the well-being of the entire population, refers to deprivation, as lack of minimum income ensuring the individual existence in the social context, the poor is deprived of the beneÞ ts of a modern economy (e.g. water, cleaning).

Methods for measuring poverty Poverty can be measured using monetary indicators: it can be selected whether to use income or consumption. Some economists believe that the use of consumption is more appropriate measure of poverty as consumption expenditure, reß ects not only the ability of households to access goods and services, based on current income, but to access credit or to save. On the other hand, measuring poverty through income has the advantage that can be included more sources of income and can be compared to ofÞ cial sources, e.g. salary can be veriÞ ed through payslips, remittances - can be checked against the receipt, transfer number, etc. If data are available for both indicators: income and consumption, poverty can be measured using both indicators and then compare the results. Even if, poverty has been traditionally measured in monetary terms, it has other non-monetary dimensions that can be analyzed. Among these we mention: Health and nutrition - poverty analysis using health status and nutrition can consider children nutritional status in the household, life expectancy of some groups of the population, access to health services; Education - education as an indicator to measure poverty, can take into account the degree of literacy within groups of the population, the last education degree or the number of years of study and Combining several aspects of poverty - for example it might be created an indicator to measure poverty taking into account: the income, health, property and education within households selected from to be studied; After the method for measuring poverty, using income, consumption or non-monetary indicators, the poverty level is established, differentiating between poor and non-poor. As mentioned above, there are two possibilities for measuring poverty: absolute or relative. It is necessary to set a poverty level: - relative - deÞ ned as the ratio between income and consumption in a country like Romania poverty threshold is set to 60% (the median income


per equivalent adult and total population, according to the National Statistics Institute- INS) - absolute - based on estimates of the expenses for the basic food basket, the cost of the basket food considered minimal for a typically family health and nutrition. Throughout the studies, it has been shown that the selection of an absolute threshold is a more relevant measure of poverty. Among the most common methods of measuring poverty, which is a mathematical function that combines indicators of household welfare measurement with the deÞ ned poverty line, are: - The incidence of poverty which calculated as a percentage of population that can not afford to buy a basic basket of goods, it refers especially at the population with an income or expenses, y, below the poverty threshold set, z. Assuming that the total population is denoted by n, q poor population, the formula for calculating the incidence of poverty (headcount index) is as follows:

- Depth of poverty – through the poverty gap are estimated resources needed to bring poor population at the threshold of poverty.

where yi, represents the individual income i, and the amount is calculating taking into account only the poor; - The severity of poverty calculates the distance between the poor and the established poverty level, as well as the inequalities between the poor. It is calculated using the formula:

, formula used for individual level

Remittances help reduce poverty As mentioned in the Þ rst part of the article, in a social research, as the one for poverty measure, population is an important indicator. This indicator is important also in the analysis of remittance impact on poverty reduction. Remittances are transfers made by migrants, people who left their home country in search of better paid jobs and their family in origin countries, usualy developing countries. Given that for poverty measurement one indicator used is the household income, made up of all sources of income, remittances are considered sources of income from abroad, which helps the


household to reach or even exceed the poverty threshold established in the analyzed country. The impact of remittance in decreasing poverty can be studied, using as an indicator the expenses, by estimating the function:

, where – is the error term, that is assumed to be independent and with a normal distribution – represents the expenses per capita, and – a vector of explanatory variables containing information about migrants’ remittances and economic shocks, which can be measured by prices of food and non-food. In this case, remittances are considered exogenous transfers, meaning that this approach is unrealistic, because remittances represent an income substitute that a migrant might gain in the origin country if he wouldn’t decide to work abroad. These effects should be considered to correctly calculate the impact of remittances. Therefore, one method used is to estimate household’s income whether migrants would choose to stay in the home country. The procedure is to estimate per capita income of a household, without taking into account remittances. Then the estimated equation, will form the basis for assessing the impact of remittances on poverty, in the household income, will take into account the per capita remittances. In this case, the equation used in economic literature is:

, where - represents the expense per capita i; - is a vector which comprises the characteristics of the household i; - it is the random disturbance term.

Results of the two prediction models of per capita expenses in the selected households, including and excluding remittances, can be compared and then it can be determined the remittance impact on poverty. To follow in a future article these estimates carried out in practice, taking as a country for analysis Romania, because it presents the characteristics needed for such a study: with more than 5 million migrants and a remittance volume of over US 3 million, in 2016, according to the ofÞ cial data provided by the World Bank. More important is that Romania, based on Eurostat, is the second country form EU with a population at risk of poverty, 37,3% of Romanians.


Conclusions A series of theoretical and practical conclusions are drawn from the study. Poverty is directly linked to the evolution of Gross Domestic Product per capita and, in the alternative, to the effect of remittances, the result of economic emigration, also stimulated by the European Union’s Directive in the Þ eld. Poverty is an important indicator to be studied, because it provides relevant information about a country’s population, its economic status and methods in which members of the population are trying to overcome the poverty threshold, in order to assure a decent living standard. Remittances are an important source of income for households with family members abroad. Their beneÞ ts primarily have the effect of reducing poverty and, implicitly, economic growth. The authors focus on the statistical methods that can be used for the analysis of poverty. Explicit indicators are used and speciÞ c statistical and economic categories are deÞ ned. From the study it is concluded that econometric methods / models can be used that give quantiÞ ed expression to the correlation that exists between the economic level. The effect of remittances and the state of poverty.

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Academia Român , Institutul de Cercetare a Calit ii Vie ii


Elemente privind politica de coeziune a UE în perioada 2014-2020

Prof. univ. dr Gabriela Victoria ANGHELACHE ([email protected])

Academia de Studii Economice, Bucure tiProf. univ. dr. Constantin ANGHELACHE ([email protected])

Academia de Studii Economice, Bucure ti / Universitatea „Artifex”, Bucure tiConf. univ. dr. M d lina-Gabriela ANGHEL ([email protected])

Universitatea „Artifex„ din Bucure tiDrd. Radu STOICA ([email protected])

Academia de Studii Economice din Bucure ti

Abstract În acest articol, autorii analizeaz politica de coeziune a Uniunii Europene pentru perioada curent , subsecvent perioadei de Þ nan are 2007-2013. Sunt prezentate rezultatele ob inute ca efect al aplic rii m surilor speciÞ ce în perioada 2000-2006, modiÞ c rile propuse pentru noua politic ,al turi de caracteristicile Fondului Social European. Este eviden iat ponderea FSE în cadrul bugetului de coeziune, precum i criteriile de alocare a fondurilor. Lista obiectivelor tematice, împreun cu intele clare i m surabile, constituie borne utile din multiple puncte de vedere asupra ciclului de via al proiectelor Þ nan ate din bugete comunitare. Cuvinte cheie: coeziune, proiecte, indicatori, obiective, Þ nan are ClasiÞ carea JEL: R11, R51,

Introducere În perioada 2000 – 2006, în domeniul politicii de coeziune a UE, în urma m surilor întreprinse, s-au ob inut o serie de rezultate. Printre acestea men ion m: realizarea a 8 400 km de cale ferat construi i sau reabilita i; 5 100 km de drum rutier au fost construi i sau reabilita i; accesul la ap potabil curat pentru înc 20 de milioane de persoane; asigurarea cadrului de formare i conversie pentru 10 milioane de persoane anual; s-au creat peste 1 milion de locuri de munc ; PIB/cap de locuitor a crescut cu 5 % în noile state membre. Cu toate acestea, în rândul statelor membre, se men in decalajele între regiuni. Astfel, pe glob, indicatorul PIB/cap de locuitor oscileaz între 50 euro/locuitor i 12.500 euro/locuitor. i în Uniunea European exist o serie de decalaje, mai ales în ceea ce prive te ritmul de cre tere al indicatorului. În unele ri este chiar în sc dere, iar în cele cu economie echilibrat , se ajunge la o rat de cre tere de 25%.


Pentru perioada urm toare, accentul trebuie pus, în rândul rilor UE, pe eliminarea acestor decalaje.

Literature review Anghelache, Voineagu, Manole i Soare (2016) se preocup de compararea programelor na ionale dedicate IMM inovative. Goldberg i Pavcnik (2007) se preocup de impactul globaliz rii asupra rilor în curs de dezvoltare. Anghel, Anghelache, Dumitrescu i Ursache (2016) se preocup de politicile grupate sub egida Ini iativei Europene pentru IMM. Tosun (2014) dezvolt un studiu comparativ asupra absorb iei fondurilor comunitare regionale. Pylak (2007) consider corela ia dintre managementul la nivel regional i atragerea de resurse Þ nanciare din fonduri europene, Anghelache, Soare i Dumitrescu (2016) descriu utilitatea platformelor informatice moderne în gestionarea proiectelor Þ nan ate din astfel de fonduri. Hardouvelis, Malliaropulos i Priestley (2007) se preocup de analiza costului capitalului. Elgström (2007) analizeaz percep ia ter ilor asupra Uniunii Europene în contextul activit ii de comer interna ional. Karacaovalia i Limão (2008) se preocup de politicile de liberalizare a comer ului în Uniunea European . Glover i Richards-Shubik (2014) analizeaz unele caracteristici ale crizei datoriilor suverane în Europa. Anghelache (2008) este o lucrare de referin în domeniul statisticii. Gomez-Puig (2008) studiaz corela ia între integrarea monetar i costurile resurselor împrumutate. Anghelache, Ni i Badiu (2016) se preocup de rolul remiten elor în Þ nan area activit ilor dintr-o economie, cu impact asupra dezvolt rii. Goos, Manning i Salomons (2009) analizeaz polarizarea locurilor de munc în Europa. Baele (2005) studiaz unele efecte ale volatilit ii pe pie ele europene de capital. Barro i Tenreyro (2007) comenteaz impactul uniunilor monetare asupra economiilor na ionale. Bekaert, Hodrick i Zhang (2009) se preocup de unele caracteristici ale instrumentelor Þ nanciare generatoare de venituri. Lommelen, Hertog, Beck i Sluismans (2009) analizeaz trei politici din categoria ini iativelor dedicate

IMM-urilor i utilitatea informa iilor desprinse în dezvoltarea organiza ional . Anghel, Dumitrescu i Dumitrescu (2016) analizeaz contribu ia statelor membre UE la Þ nan area prin fonduri europene. Anghelache, Anghel, Manole i Lilea. (2016) prezint conceptele i instrumentele model rii economice.

Blank i Buch (2007) dezvolt pe tema sistemului bancar interna ional. Bris, Koskinen i Nilsson (2008) descriu unele principii ale evalu rii corporative. Dornean (2015) analizeaz rolul fondurilor europene atrase în România în Þ nan area dezvolt rii regionale. Hernández-Cánovas i Martínez-Solano (2010) se preocup de rolul sistemului bancar în Þ nan area IMM-urilor.

Metodologia cercet rii i date


• Schimb ri propuse de Comisia European pentru perioada 2014-2020

Obiectivele principale avute în vedere sunt realizarea obiectivelor Strategiei Europa 2020 de cre tere inteligent , durabil i favorabil incluziunii, accentul urmând a Þ pus pe rezultate concrete i strategia de maximizare a impactului Þ nan rii UE în aceste domenii. Comisia a prezentat în iunie 2011 propuneri ambi ioase, îns realiste, privind Cadrul Financiar Multianual (CFM) pentru perioada 2014-2020. Structura bugetar aprobat , pentru Politica de coeziune repartizeaz astfel 33% (36 miliarde euro pentru a facilita „Conectarea Europei” se prev d 4% (40 milioane euro), iar pentru alte politici (agricultur , cercetare, externe etc.) sunt repartizate 63% (649 miliarde euro), vezi graÞ cul de structur urm tor:

Politica de coeziune; 336;

33%

Conectarea Europei; 40; 4%Alte politici; 649; 63%

• Principalele schimb ri în politica de coeziune a Uniunii Europene O prim problem c reia i se acord aten ie o constituie consolidarea eÞ cacit ii i performan ei economico-Þ nanciare. În acest sens, accentul va Þ pus pe rezultate, m surate prin indicatori comuni i speciÞ ci programelor respective. Prin acest sistem de indicatori se va realiza o raportare, monitorizare i evaluare adecvat i obiectiv . Trebuie s se asigure un cadru de performan pentru toate programele, urm rindu-se parcurgerea de etape i stabilirea de obiective clare i m surabile.

• Stabilirea unor etape i obiective clare i m surabile. Se impune eviden ierea rezervei de performan , în limita a 5% din aloc rile na ionale (la nivel de stat membru, fond sau categorie de regiune). De asemenea, aloc rile de fonduri trebuie s se realizeze în condi iile asigur rii unor condi ii pentru investi ii eÞ ciente. Trebuie s se asigure condi ionalitate macroeconomic , prin alinierea la noua guvernan economic . Utilizarea mai coerent a fondurilor UE disponibile, reprezint un alt aspect care trebuia urm rit i îmbun t it. În acest sens trebuie s se asigure o deplin concordan între cadrul strategic comun, contractele de parteneriat i programele opera ionale (vezi schema urm toare):


În aceast direc ie, se impune îmbun t irea unor indicatori care s reß ecte: strategia global de investi ii; aliniat la obiectivele Europa 2020; coeren cu programele na ionale de reform ; coordonare între fondurile politicii de coeziune, de dezvoltare rural , de pescuit i afaceri maritime; stabilirea de obiective i indicatori care s m soare progresele înregistrate în ceea ce prive te realizarea intelor din programul Europa 2020; sporirea eÞ cacit ii prin introducerea unui cadru de performan adecvat; realizarea eÞ cien ei, concomitent cu consolidarea capacit ii administrative i reducerea birocra iei.

• Stabilirea unei liste de obiective tematice Accesarea i utilizarea fondurilor de coeziune trebuie s se realizeze în condi iile asigur rii unui program de cercetare i inovare speciÞ c Þ ec rei economii na ionale. Un alt obiectiv tematic îl reprezint asigurarea tehnologiilor informa iei i comunica iilor (TIC), care contribuie la cre terea competitivit ii întreprinderilor mici i mijlocii (IMM-urilor). Problema mediului înconjur tor trebuie s aib în vedere trecerea la o economie cu emisii reduse de dioxid de carbon, care s aib în vedere i adaptarea la schimb rile climatice i prevenirea i gestionarea riscurilor. Protec ia mediului va trebui s se canalizeze i pe cre terea eÞ cien ei resurselor naturale. Transportul durabil i eliminarea blocajelor din cadrul infrastructurilor re elelor majore reprezint un alt obiectiv tematic prioritar. Ocuparea for ei de munc i dezvoltarea mobilit ii lucr torilor va constitui un obiectiv prioritar în perioada urm toare. În acest cadru se va urm ri cre terea incluziunii sociale i combaterea s r ciei, ß agel care tinde s ia propor ii. În domeniul educa iei, obiectivul de urm rit este cel cu privire la cre terea competen elor i înv are pe tot parcursul vie ii. Consolidarea capacit ii institu ionale i administra ii publice eÞ ciente va Þ corolarul obiectivelor tematice, în sensul c se va putea realiza o simbioz corect între individ i administra ia public .


• Concentrarea resurselor pentru maximizarea impactului politicii de coeziune trebuie s aib în centrul preocup rilor concentrarea investi iilor FEDR.

Prin aceasta se va realiza cre terea eÞ cien ei energetice i energiei regenerabile. Cercetarea i inovarea vor Þ puse în slujba sporirii competitivit ii IMM-urilor. Structura concentr rii resurselor este eviden iat de graÞ cele de structur urm toare:

Structura investi iilor în regiunile dezvoltate i regiuni de tranzi ie

Structura investi iilor în regiunile mai pu in dezvoltate

• Fondul social european (FSE) Fondul social european este cuprins în bugetul politicii de coeziune al Uniunii Europene. Având în vedere efectele recesiunii, concretizate prin criza economico-Þ nanciar , se agraveaz starea social în majoritatea statelor membre. De aceea, în bugetul politicii de coeziune se va pune accentul pe identiÞ carea de noi surse care s asigure cre terea, în cifr absolut dar i ca pondere, a fondului social european. Pentru perioada 2014-2020 se va asigura cre terea de la 22%, cât este prev zut pentru 2007-2013, la 25% (vezi graÞ cul urm tor).


Ponderea FSE din bugetul politicii de coeziune

25%22%

2007-2013 2014-2020

Din analiza datelor furnizate de institu iile Uniunii Europene rezult c din totalul fondurilor structurale (FEDR i FSE), FSE va reprezenta: 25 % în regiunile mai pu in dezvoltate; 40 % în regiunile de tranzi ie; 52 % în regiunile mai dezvoltate. În conformitate cu Strategia Uniunii Europene pentru anul 2020, accentul, în ceea ce prive te utilizarea fondului social european, va Þ pus pe urm toarele: promovarea ocup rii for ei de munc i sprijinirea mobilit ii lucr torilor; cre terea investi iilor în educa ie, competen e i înv are pe tot parcursul vie ii; îmbun t irea promov rii incluziunii sociale i mai ales combaterea s r ciei; consolidarea capacit ii institu ionale pentru asigurarea unei administra ii publice eÞ ciente. În politica Uniunii Europene se va avea în vedere asigurarea unei dimensiuni sociale consolidate, care s se concretizeze prin: alocarea a 20 % fondul social european pentru incluziune social ; realizarea unui accent mai mare pus pe combaterea omajului în rândul tinerilor; cre terea integr rii i asigurarea unui sprijin speciÞ c pentru impunerea proiectului privind egalitatea de anse între femei i b rba i i nediscriminarea. Fondul de coeziune reprezint sursa prin care vor Þ sprijinite statele membre care realizeaz un Produs Na ional Brut/cap de locuitor mai mic de 90 % din media înregistrat în UE-27. Direc ionarea sumelor din fondul de coeziune se va face, cu prec dere aceste ri, c tre: investi ii în domeniul mediului (în mod concret pentru adaptarea la schimb rile climatice i prevenirea riscurilor; îmbun t irea standurilor în sectoarele apei i de eurilor; asigurarea biodiversit ii, inclusiv prin infrastructuri ecologice; ecologizarea mediului urban; îmbun t irea economiei cu emisii reduse de dioxid de carbon. De asemenea, se vor avea


în vedere investi ii în domeniul transporturilor pentru: dezvoltarea re elelor transeuropene de transport (TEN-T); asigurarea de sisteme de transport cu emisii reduse de dioxid de carbon. În politica Uniunii Europene se va realiza simpliÞ carea prin aplicarea de norme comune în repartizarea fondurilor de coeziune pentru dezvoltarea rural i îmbun t ire activit ii în domeniul maritim i pescuit. Op iunea programelor Þ nan ate din fonduri multiple va avea în centrul preocup rilor utilizarea FEDR, FSE i Fondul de coeziune. De asemenea, se vor avea în vedere urm toarele m suri: norme armonizate în materie de eligibilitate i durabilitate; o mai mare utilizare a costurilor simpliÞ cate; conectarea pl ilor cu rezultatele ob inute sau prognozate a se ob ine; e-Coeziune, care presupune un punct de informare unic pentru beneÞ ciari; controlul comisiei se va realiza în mod propor ional, între accesarea fondurilor i rezultate

În aceea i direc ie se va pune accentul pe consolidarea coeziunii teritoriale. Astfel, se va urm ri dezvoltarea urban durabil , prin folosirea a cel pu in 5% din resursele FEDR ce vor Þ alocate. De asemenea, se va crea o platform de dezvoltare urban prin realizarea unei re ele între ora e i unele schimb ri în materie de politic urban . Vor Þ ini iate ac iuni inovatoare în domeniul dezvolt rii urbane durabile prin Þ nan are limitat la un maximum de 0,2 % din fondurile anuale. Se va efectua o alocare suplimentar pentru regiunile ultraperiferice i slab populate în zonele cu caracteristici naturale sau demograÞ ce speciÞ ce. Politica general va Þ orientat c tre investi ii, prin promovarea utiliz rii unor instrumente inovatoare de Þ nan are (care s asigure extinderea sferei de aplicare la toate domeniile de investi ii; clariÞ carea cadrului legal; utilizarea a 10 % pentru instrumentele inovatoare de Þ nan are i ini iativa comunitar de dezvoltare; utilizarea unei game de op iuni care s ofere ß exibilitate administratorilor de programe). Utilizarea unei rate maxime diferen iate de coÞ nan are, pentru Þ ecare grup de regiuni, va avea în vedere urm torul principiu: 75–85 % în regiuni mai pu in dezvoltate i ultraperiferice; 60 % în regiuni de tranzi ie; 50 % în regiuni mai dezvoltate.

• Criterii de alocare regional a fondurilor Se va avea în vedere realizarea unui sistem echitabil pentru toate regiunile UE (simulat pe baza datelor PIB a nivelului de eligibilitate pentru cele 3 categorii de regiuni). În aceast direc ie, PIB-cap de locuitor va Þ elementul de împ r ire a regiunilor UE, pe trei regiuni de state membre. Acestea vor avea echivalen a urm toare: regiuni mai pu in dezvoltate, ce realizeaz sub media


UE pe cap de locuitor; regiuni de tranzi ie, cu realiz ri de 75-80% din media UE; regiuni mai dezvoltate, cu realiz ri de peste 90%din media UE. Fondurile, pe cele trei regiuni, sunt detaliate în tabelul i graÞ cele urm toare: Regiuni mai pu in dezvoltate

Fondul de coeziune¹ 68.7Regiuni mai pu in dezvoltate 162.6Regiuni de tranzi ie 38.9Regiuni mai dezvoltate 53.1Cooperare teritorial european 11.7Regiuni ultraperiferice i zone slab populate 0.9

Total: 336.0

15,80%

11,60%

68,70%72,4

119,2

Alocarea bugetara Populatia beneficiara (mil. locuitori)

Regiuni mai dezvoltate Regiuni de tranzitie Regiuni mai putin dezvoltate

Schimb rile privind utilizarea fondurilor comunitare vor intra în vigoare diferen iat, conform calendarului de mai jos:


Concluzii Gestiunea i controlul – la nivelul Uniunii Europene se va consolida i va viza aspecte în domeniul gestiunii Þ nanciare (introducerea unui nou sistem anual de conturi; întocmirea declara iei anuale de gestiune; închiderea anual a conturilor de c tre Comisie). Implementarea de noi sisteme de gestiune i control va presupune o serie de ac iuni dedicate: acreditare na ional (care impune o responsabilitate mai mare pentru statele membre); autorit ile de management vor ac iona în calitate de autorit i de certiÞ care; comisia poate revizui acreditarea în func ie de riscurile i evolu ia programelor aplicate. Impunerea unei mai mari propor ionalit i vizeaz : excep ii pentru programe cu volum redus; considerarea excep iilor pentru sisteme care au avut în mod consecvent rezultate bune; limit ri ale controalelor de audit efectuate de Comisie la nivelul opera iunilor individuale. Cooperarea teritorial trebuie s Þ e inß uen at prin: aprobarea unui nou regulament separat de Regulamentul General; cre terea resurselor Þ nanciare (+30 %); concentrarea programelor pe maximum 4 obiective tematice; gestiunea simpliÞ cat a programelor prin realizarea fuziunii dintre autorit ile de management i autorit ile de certiÞ care); facilitarea cre rii grup rilor europene de cooperare teritorial (GECT).

BibliograÞ e 1 Anghel, M.G., Anghelache, C., Dumitrescu, D. and Ursache, A. (2016). The

European Initiative for Small and Medium Enterprises. Romanian Statistical Review, Supplement, Issue 6/2016, pp. 49-58

2. Anghel, M.G., Dumitrescu, D. and Dumitrescu, D. (2016). Contribution of member states to European Þ nancing. Romanian Statistical Review, Supplement, no.9, pp. 57-63

3. Anghelache, C., Anghel, M.G., Manole, A and Lilea. F.P.C. (2016). Modelare economic , Þ nanciar-monetar-bancar i informatic , Editura Artifex, Bucure ti

4. Anghelache, C., Voineagu, V., Manole, A. and Soare, D.V. (2016). Comparative Study of European and National Programmes regarding Innovative Capacity of Small and Medium enterprises. Romanian Statistical Review, Supplement, Issue 6, pp. 37-44

5. Anghelache, C., Ni , G. and Badiu, A. (2016). Migrants remittances – an important and stable source of external funds, in the economic development of a country, Romanian Statistical Review, Supplement, no. 12, pp. 83-90

6. Anghelache, C., Soare, D.V. and Dumitrescu, D. (2016). IT&C Platform Used in Projects Financed from European Union Funds, Romanian Statistical Review, Supplement, Issue 6/2016, pp. 59-67

7. Anghelache, C. (2008). Tratat de statistic teoretic i economic , Editura Economic , Bucure ti

8. Baele, L. (2005). Volatility spillover effects in European equity markets, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 40(02): 373–401


9. Barro, R. and Tenreyro, S. (2007). Economic effects of currency unions, Economic Inquiry, 45(1): 1–23

10. Bekaert, G., Hodrick, R. and Zhang, X. (2009). International stock return comovements, Journal of Finance, 64(6): 2591–2626

11. Blank, S. and Buch, C. M. (2007). The Euro and Cross-Border Banking: Evidence from Bilateral Data, Comparative Economic Studies, 49(3): 389–410

12. Bris, A., Koskinen, Y. and Nilsson, M. (2008). The Euro and Corporate Valuations, Review of Financial Studies, 22(8): 3171–3209

13. Dornean, A. (2015). Financing Regional Development Through European Funds. A Review Of The Effects In Romania (2007-2013), EURINT, Volume 2, pp. 141-153

14. Elgström, O. (2007). Outsiders’ Perceptions of the European Union in International Trade Negotiations, Journal of Common Market Studies, Volume 45, Issue 4, pp. 949–967

15. Glover, B. and Richards-Shubik, S. (2014). Contagion in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, NBER Working Paper No. 20567, October 2014

16. Goldberg, P. K. and N. Pavcnik (2007, March). Distributional effects of globalization in developing countries. Journal of Economic Literature, 45 (1), 39–82

17. Gomez-Puig, M. (2008). Monetary integration and the cost of borrowing. Journal of International Money and Finance, 27, 455-479

18. Goos, M., Manning, A., Salomons, A. (2009). Job Polarization in Europe. American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 99(2), pp. 58-63

19. Hardouvelis, G., Malliaropulos, D. and Priestley, R. (2007). The impact of EMU on the equity cost of capital, Journal of International Money and Finance 26(2): 305–327

20. Hernández-Cánovas, G. and Martínez-Solano, P. (2010). Relationship lending and SME Þ nancing in the continental European bank-based system. Small Business Economics, Volume 34, Issue 4, pp. 465-482

21. Karacaovalia, B. and Limão, N. (2008). The clash of liberalizations: Preferential vs. multilateral trade liberalization in the European Union. Journal of International Economics, Volume 74, Issue 2, pp. 299–327

22. Lommelen, T., Hertog, F. den, Beck, L. and Sluismans, R. (2009). Designing plans for organizational development, lessons from three large-scale SME-initiatives, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT) in its series MERIT Working Papers with number 027


24. Pylak, C. (2007). Intelligent Region Management = Intelligent Absorption of EU funds. Romanian Journal of Regional Science, Volume 1, No. 1, pp. 70-80

25. Tosun, J. (2014). Absorption of Regional Funds: A Comparative Analysis. Journal of Common Market Studies, Volume 52, Issue 2, pp. 371–387


ELEMENTS FOR EU COHESION POLICY 2014-2020

Prof. Gabriela Victoria ANGHELACHE PhD ([email protected])

Bucharest University of Economic StudiesProf. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD ([email protected])

Bucharest University of Economic Studies / „Artifex” University of BucharestAssoc. prof. M d lina-Gabriela ANGHEL PhD ([email protected])

„Artifex” University of Bucharest Radu STOICA Ph.D Student ([email protected])

Bucharest University of Economic Studies

Abstract In this article, the authors analyze Cohesion Policy of the European Union for the current period, following the 2007-2013 funding period. The results obtained as a result of the application of the speciÞ c measures in the period 2000-2006, the proposed changes for the new policy, along with the characteristics of the European Social Fund, are presented. The share of the ESF in the cohesion budget, as well as the criteria for the allocation of funds, is highlighted. The list of thematic objectives, together with clear and measurable targets, are useful in many ways for the life-span of projects funded by Community budgets. Keywords: cohesion, projects, indicators, objectives, Þ nancing JEL classiÞ cation: R11, R51

Introduction Between 2000 and 2006, in the area of EU Cohesion Policy, a series of results were obtained as a result of the measures taken. Among these we mention: the construction of 8,400 km of railway built or rehabilitated; 5 100 km of road road were built or rehabilitated; Access to clean drinking water for another 20 million people; Providing the training and conversion framework for 10 million people annually; Over 1 million jobs have been created; GDP / capita increased by 5% in the new Member States. However, gaps between regions are maintained among Member States. Thus, globally, the GDP / capita indicator ß uctuates between € 50 / inhabitant and € 12,500 per capita. There are also some gaps in the European Union, especially as regards the growth rate of the indicator. In some countries it is even shrinking, and in those with a balanced economy a 25% growth rate is reached. For the next period, the focus should be on removing these gaps among EU countries.


Literature review Anghelache, Voineagu, Manole i Soare (2016) se preocup de compararea programelor na ionale dedicate IMM inovative. Goldberg i Pavcnik (2007) se preocup de impactul globaliz rii asupra rilor în

curs de dezvoltare. Anghel, Anghelache, Dumitrescu i Ursache (2016) se preocup de politicile grupate sub egida Ini iativei Europene pentru IMM. Tosun (2014) dezvolt un studiu comparativ asupra absorb iei fondurilor comunitare regionale. Pylak (2007) consider corela ia dintre managementul la nivel regional i atragerea de resurse Þ nanciare din fonduri europene, Anghelache, Soare i Dumitrescu (2016) descriu utilitatea platformelor informatice moderne în gestionarea proiectelor Þ nan ate din astfel de fonduri. Hardouvelis, Malliaropulos i Priestley (2007) se preocup de analiza costului capitalului. Elgström (2007) analizeaz percep ia ter ilor asupra Uniunii Europene în contextul activit ii de comer interna ional. Karacaovalia i Limão (2008) se preocup de politicile de liberalizare a comer ului în Uniunea European . Glover i Richards-Shubik (2014) analizeaz unele caracteristici ale crizei datoriilor suverane în Europa. Anghelache (2008) este o lucrare de referin în domeniul statisticii. Gomez-Puig (2008) studiaz corela ia între integrarea monetar i costurile resurselor împrumutate. Anghelache, Ni i Badiu (2016) se preocup de rolul remiten elor în Þ nan area activit ilor dintr-o economie, cu impact asupra dezvolt rii. Goos, Manning i Salomons (2009) analizeaz polarizarea locurilor de munc în Europa.

Baele (2005) studiaz unele efecte ale volatilit ii pe pie ele europene de capital. Barro i Tenreyro (2007) comenteaz impactul uniunilor monetare asupra economiilor na ionale. Bekaert, Hodrick i Zhang (2009) se preocup de unele caracteristici ale instrumentelor Þ nanciare generatoare de venituri. Lommelen, Hertog, Beck i Sluismans (2009) analizeaz trei politici din categoria ini iativelor dedicate IMM-urilor i utilitatea informa iilor desprinse în dezvoltarea organiza ional . Anghel, Dumitrescu i Dumitrescu (2016) analizeaz contribu ia statelor membre UE la Þ nan area prin fonduri europene. Anghelache, Anghel, Manole i Lilea. (2016) prezint conceptele i instrumentele model rii economice. Blank i Buch (2007) dezvolt pe

tema sistemului bancar interna ional. Bris, Koskinen i Nilsson (2008) descriu unele principii ale evalu rii corporative. Dornean (2015) analizeaz rolul fondurilor europene atrase în România în Þ nan area dezvolt rii regionale. Hernández-Cánovas i Martínez-Solano (2010) se preocup de rolul sistemului bancar în Þ nan area IMM-urilor.

Research methodology and data • Changes proposed by the European Commission for 2014-2020


The main objectives envisaged are the achievement of the objectives of the Europe 2020 strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth, the focus on concrete results and the strategy to maximize the impact of EU funding in these areas. The Commission presented in June 2011 ambitious but realistic proposals on the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for the period 2014-2020. The approved Cohesion Policy budget structure thus allocates 33% (€ 36 billion to facilitate “Connecting Europe”, 4% (40 million euros) are foreseen, while for other policies (agriculture, research, external, etc.) 63% (649 billion euros), see the chart below:

Politica de coeziune; 336;

33%

Conectarea Europei; 40; 4%Alte politici; 649; 63%

• The main changes in the Cohesion Policy of the European Union A Þ rst issue to be addressed is the strengthening of efÞ ciency and economic and Þ nancial performance. In this sense, the emphasis will be on results, measured by common indicators speciÞ c to those programs. Through this system of indicators, appropriate, objective and objective reporting, monitoring and evaluation will be carried out. A framework of performance for all programs needs to be ensured, with steps being taken and clear and measurable objectives set.

• Stabilirea unor etape i obiective clare i m surabile. It is necessary to highlight the performance reserve, within the limit of 5% of the national allocations (at Member State level, fund or category of region). Fund allocations should also be made under the conditions for effective investment. Macroeconomic conditionality must be ensured by alignment with the new economic governance. More coherent use of available EU funds is another aspect to be pursued and improved. To this end, full coherence must be ensured between the Common Strategic Framework, the Partnership Contracts and the Operational Programs (see the following scheme):


In this respect, it is necessary to improve some indicators reß ecting: the global investment strategy; Aligned with the Europe 2020 objectives; Coherence with national reform programs; Coordination between Cohesion, Rural Development, Fisheries and Maritime Affairs; Setting targets and indicators to measure progress towards achieving the Europe 2020 targets; Enhancing effectiveness by introducing an appropriate performance framework; Achieving efÞ ciency while enhancing administrative capacity and reducing bureaucracy.

• Establish a list of thematic objectives Access to and use of Cohesion Funds must be carried out under the conditions of a research and innovation program speciÞ c to each national economy. Another thematic objective is the provision of information and communication technologies (ICT), which contributes to increasing the competitiveness of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The issue of the environment must also take into account the shift to a low-carbon economy that also takes into account adaptation to climate change and risk prevention and management. Environmental protection will also need to be channeled into enhancing the efÞ ciency of natural resources. Sustainable transport and the removal of bottlenecks in major network infrastructures are another priority thematic objective. Employment and the development of workers’ mobility will be a priority objective in the coming period. In this framework, it will be aimed at increasing social inclusion and combating poverty, a scourge that tends to take prominence. In the Þ eld of education, the objective to be pursued is that of skills and lifelong learning. Strengthening institutional capacity and effective public administrations will be the corollary of the thematic objectives, meaning that a fair symbiosis between the individual and the public administration can be achieved.

• Concentrating resources to maximize the impact of cohesion policy must be at the heart of the focus of the ERDF investment focus

This will increase the efÞ ciency of energy and renewable energy. Research and innovation will be used to increase the competitiveness of SMEs.


The structure of resource concentration is highlighted by the following structure charts:

Structure of investments in developed regions and transition regions

Structure of investments in less developed regions

• European Social Fund (ESF) The European Social Fund is included in the Cohesion Policy budget of the European Union. Given the effects of the recession, materialized in the economic and Þ nancial crisis, social status is worsening in most Member States. That is why the Cohesion Policy budget will focus on identifying new sources to ensure that the European Social Fund grows in absolute terms as well as in terms of weight. For the 2014-2020 period, the increase from 22%, as foreseen for 2007-2013, to 25% will be ensured (see chart below).

The share of the ESF in the Cohesion Policy budget

25%22%

2007-2013 2014-2020

The analysis of the data provided by the European Union institutions shows that from the total Structural Funds (ERDF and ESF), the ESF will represent: 25% in the less developed regions; 40% in transition regions; 52% in more developed regions.


In line with the European Union 2020 Strategy, the focus on the use of the European Social Fund will be: promoting employment and supporting workers’ mobility; Increasing investment in education, skills and lifelong learning; Improving the promotion of social inclusion and, above all, combating poverty; Strengthening institutional capacity to ensure effective public administration. In the European Union’s policy, we will consider ensuring a consolidated social dimension, to be achieved by: 20% European Social Fund allocation for social inclusion; Achieving greater emphasis on combating youth unemployment; Increasing integration and providing speciÞ c support for the project on gender equality and non-discrimination. The Cohesion Fund is the source to support Member States achieving a Gross National Product / per capita below 90% of the EU-27 average. The targeting of Cohesion Fund amounts will be, above all, for these countries to: investment in the environment (speciÞ cally climate adaptation and risk prevention, improvement of stands in the water and waste sectors, biodiversity, including through green infrastructures; Greening the urban environment, improving the low-carbon economy, transport investments will be envisaged for: the development of trans-European transport networks (TEN-T), the provision of low-carbon transport systems carbon. European Union policy will simplify by applying common rules in the allocation of cohesion funds for rural development and improving maritime and Þ sheries activity. The choice of programs funded from multiple funds will be the focus of the ERDF, ESF and Cohesion Fund. The following measures will also be considered: harmonized rules on eligibility and sustainability; Greater use of simpliÞ ed costs; Linking payments with the results obtained or expected to be obtained; E-Cohesion, which involves a single point of information for the beneÞ ciaries; The commission’s control will be done in a proportionate way between accessing funds and results In the same direction, emphasis will be placed on strengthening territorial cohesion. Thus, sustainable urban development will be pursued by using at least 5% of the ERDF resources to be allocated. Also, an urban development platform will be created through networking between cities and some changes in urban policy. Innovative actions will be launched in the Þ eld of sustainable urban development with limited funding limited to a maximum of 0.2% of the annual funds. An additional allocation will be made for the outermost and sparsely populated regions in areas with speciÞ c natural or demographic characteristics.


General policy will be investment-oriented, by promoting the use of innovative Þ nancing instruments (ensuring the extension of scope to all areas of investment, clarifying the legal framework, using 10% for innovative Þ nancing instruments and the Community development initiative, using A choice of options to give program administrators ß exibility). The use of a maximum differentiated co-Þ nancing rate for each group of regions will take into account the following principle: 75-85% in less developed and outermost regions; 60% in transition regions; 50% in more developed regions. • Criteria for regional allocation of funds Consideration will be given to achieving a fair system for all EU regions (simulated on the basis of GDP data of the level of eligibility for the three categories of regions). In this direction, GDP per capita will be the element of dividing the EU regions into three regions of Member States. They will have the following equivalence: less developed regions, below the EU average per capita; Transition regions, with achievements of 75-80% of the EU average; More developed regions with over 90% of the EU average. The funds in the three regions are detailed in the following table and charts: Less developed regions

Cohesion Fund¹ 68.7Less developed regions 162.6Transition regions 38.9More developed regions 53.1European Territorial Cooperation 11.7Outermost regions and sparsely populated areas 0.9Total: 336.0

15,80%

11,60%

68,70%72,4

119,2

Alocarea bugetara Populatia beneficiara (mil. locuitori)

Regiuni mai dezvoltate Regiuni de tranzitie Regiuni mai putin dezvoltate

Changes in the use of Community funds will come into effect differently according to the calendar below:


Conclusion Management and control - at the level of the European Union, it will be strengthened and will address issues in the area of Þ nancial management (introduction of a new annual system of accounts, drawing up the annual management declaration, annual closure of the accounts by the Commission). Implementation of new management and control systems will involve a series of dedicated actions: national accreditation (which requires greater responsibility for Member States); Management authorities will act as certifying authorities; The committee may review the accreditation according to the risks and the evolution of the applied programs. The imposition of greater proportionality concerns: exceptions for low volume programs; Consider exceptions for systems that consistently have good results; Limitations of audits by the Commission at the level of individual operations. Territorial cooperation must be inß uenced by: approving a new regulation separate from the General Regulation; Increasing Þ nancial resources (+ 30%); Focusing on up to 4 thematic objectives; SimpliÞ ed management of programs through the merger between managing authorities and certiÞ cation authorities); Facilitating the creation of European Groupings of Territorial Cooperation (EGTC).

References 1 Anghel, M.G., Anghelache, C., Dumitrescu, D. and Ursache, A. (2016). The

European Initiative for Small and Medium Enterprises. Romanian Statistical Review, Supplement, Issue 6/2016, pp. 49-58

2. Anghel, M.G., Dumitrescu, D. and Dumitrescu, D. (2016). Contribution of member states to European Þ nancing. Romanian Statistical Review, Supplement, no.9, pp. 57-63


3. Anghelache, C., Anghel, M.G., Manole, A and Lilea. F.P.C. (2016). Modelare economic , Þ nanciar-monetar-bancar i informatic , Editura Artifex, Bucure ti

4. Anghelache, C., Voineagu, V., Manole, A. and Soare, D.V. (2016). Comparative Study of European and National Programmes regarding Innovative Capacity of Small and Medium enterprises. Romanian Statistical Review, Supplement, Issue 6, pp. 37-44

5. Anghelache, C., Ni , G. and Badiu, A. (2016). Migrants remittances – an important and stable source of external funds, in the economic development of a country, Romanian Statistical Review, Supplement, no. 12, pp. 83-90

6. Anghelache, C., Soare, D.V. and Dumitrescu, D. (2016). IT&C Platform Used in Projects Financed from European Union Funds, Romanian Statistical Review, Supplement, Issue 6/2016, pp. 59-67


8. Baele, L. (2005). Volatility spillover effects in European equity markets, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 40(02): 373–401

9. Barro, R. and Tenreyro, S. (2007). Economic effects of currency unions, Economic Inquiry, 45(1): 1–23

10. Bekaert, G., Hodrick, R. and Zhang, X. (2009). International stock return comovements, Journal of Finance, 64(6): 2591–2626

11. Blank, S. and Buch, C. M. (2007). The Euro and Cross-Border Banking: Evidence from Bilateral Data, Comparative Economic Studies, 49(3): 389–410

12. Bris, A., Koskinen, Y. and Nilsson, M. (2008). The Euro and Corporate Valuations, Review of Financial Studies, 22(8): 3171–3209

13. Dornean, A. (2015). Financing Regional Development Through European Funds. A Review Of The Effects In Romania (2007-2013), EURINT, Volume 2, pp. 141-153

14. Elgström, O. (2007). Outsiders’ Perceptions of the European Union in International Trade Negotiations, Journal of Common Market Studies, Volume 45, Issue 4, pp. 949–967

15. Glover, B. and Richards-Shubik, S. (2014). Contagion in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, NBER Working Paper No. 20567, October 2014

16. Goldberg, P. K. and N. Pavcnik (2007, March). Distributional effects of globalization in developing countries. Journal of Economic Literature, 45 (1), 39–82

17. Gomez-Puig, M. (2008). Monetary integration and the cost of borrowing. Journal of International Money and Finance, 27, 455-479

18. Goos, M., Manning, A., Salomons, A. (2009). Job Polarization in Europe. American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 99(2), pp. 58-63

19. Hardouvelis, G., Malliaropulos, D. and Priestley, R. (2007). The impact of EMU on the equity cost of capital, Journal of International Money and Finance 26(2): 305–327

20. Hernández-Cánovas, G. and Martínez-Solano, P. (2010). Relationship lending and SME Þ nancing in the continental European bank-based system. Small Business Economics, Volume 34, Issue 4, pp. 465-482

21. Karacaovalia, B. and Limão, N. (2008). The clash of liberalizations: Preferential vs. multilateral trade liberalization in the European Union. Journal of International Economics, Volume 74, Issue 2, pp. 299–327


22. Lommelen, T., Hertog, F. den, Beck, L. and Sluismans, R. (2009). Designing plans for organizational development, lessons from three large-scale SME-initiatives, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT) in its series MERIT Working Papers with number 027


24. Pylak, C. (2007). Intelligent Region Management = Intelligent Absorption of EU funds. Romanian Journal of Regional Science, Volume 1, No. 1, pp. 70-80



Poten ialul economic al investi iilor în domeniul Cercet rii - Dezvolt rii - Inov rii

în Uniunea European

Asistent Universitar Dr. Diana Valentina Dumitrescu„Artifex” University of Bucharest, Academy of Economic Studies, BucharestDr. Daniel Ioan Dumitrescu

Abstract Atât la nivel European cât i global, se pune un accent din ce în ce mai mare pe identiÞ carea acelor sectoare economice care pot aduce cre tere economic , crescând astfel competitivitatea la nivel global. Din acest punct de vedere, Comisia European a identiÞ cat la sfar itul Cadrului Financiar Multianual 2007 – 2013 un decalaj de competitivitate la nivelul întregii Uniuni Europene fa de alte economii globale cum ar Þ Statele Unite ale Americii. Noul Cadru Financiar Multianual 2014 – 2020 intervine asupra acestei lipse de competitivitate economic a Uniunii Europene încercând s identiÞ ce acele sectoare de cre tere inteligent care ar putea asigura cre terea economic a Europei. Lucrarea de fa i-a dorit s analizeze acele metode de cre tere a Produsului Intern Brut prin intermediul investi iilor in Cercetare – Dezvoltare – Inovare. Cuvinte cheie: cercetare, dezvoltare, inovare, europa

Introducere Domeniul cercet rii dezvoltarii i inov rii (CDI), ocup un rol principal în cadrul Strategiei Europa 2020, Þ ind determinant pentru realizarea cre terii inteligente i durabile i pentru a face fa provoc rilor societale. Pe lâng impactul direct i imediat (realizarea de produse, procese sau servicii, inovatoare i ecologice, publica ii tiin iÞ ce, brevete), CDI mai are i un impact economic mai larg tradus prin acapararea unor cote mai mari de pia , atingerea unei productivit i mai mari, cre terea competitivit ii industriale i utilizarea mai eÞ cient a resurselor. Analiza politicii CDI în statele membre ale UE se bazeaz pe o abordare în dou etape. Prima etap const în identiÞ carea, pentru Þ ecare stat membru, pe baza unui set de indicatori de performan , a principalelor provoc ri politice care s duc la eviden ierea blocajelor care împiedic contribu ia deplin a CDI pentru o cre tere inteligent , durabil i favorabil incluziunii. A doua etap const în evaluarea caracterului adecvat al r spunsurilor politice la problemele identiÞ cate.


Literature review Albort-Morant i Ribeiro-Soriano (2016) realizeaz un studiu bibliometric orientat c tre impactul incubatoarelor de afaceri pe plan interna ional. Correa, Andrés i Borja-Vega (2013) analizeaz efectul Þ nan rii publice ca sprijin pentru politicile de investi ii ale companiilor private, pentru activit i de cercetare i dezvoltare. Audretsch (2014) consider perspectivele conceptului de societate antreprenorial . Volumul editat de Bozeman i Melkers (2013) este un document de referin în domeniul evalu rii ex-post a cercet rii-dezvolt rii. Anghelache, Soare, Marinescu (2014) dezvolt pe tema corela iei dintre popula ie i pia a for ei de munc din România. Capello i Lenzi (2016) studiaz relevan a i utilitatea politicilor de cercetare aplicate la nivelul Uniunii Europene în vederea smart growth. Ebner i Bocek (2015) au dezvoltat un set de practici privind suportul pentru investi ia în cercetare. Scaringella i Chanaron (2016) studiaz modelele inovative Grenoble–GIANT pentru infrastructuri de cercetare. Schut et.al. (2016) dezvolt pe tema rolului platformelor de inovare. Sung i Choi (2014) evalueaz impactul cheltuielilor de training i dezvoltare asociate personalului asupra inov rii. Von Schomberg (2013) dezvolt o viziune orientat pe componenta de responsabilitate a cercet rii i inov rii.

Metodologia cercet rii i date Sistemul de Cercetare Inovare Public format din institu ii de înv mânt superior i a altor autorit i i agen ii care efectueaz cercetarea i inovarea, cum ar Þ centrele de cercetare publice i institutele, de in un rol de baz în producerea cuno tin elor i formarea de speciali ti necesari inov rii în cadrul companiilor private sau publice. Evaluarea calitativ a acestui sistem de CDI în cadrul UE 28 permite identiÞ carea statelor sale membre unde aceast problem poate Þ abordat i rezolvat . Evaluarea calit ii sistemului public de C&I se poate realiza cu ajutorul mai multor indicatori relevan i cum ar Þ „bibliometria”, utilizat pentru a evalua impactul publica iilor tiin iÞ ce în generarea de noi date tiin iÞ ce; num rul granturilor / subven iilor „Consiliului European pentru Cercetare” primite de c tre cercet torii unei ri i asimilate premiilor de excelen tiin iÞ c ; num rul universit ilor aß ate în clasamentele interna ionale . To i ace ti indicatori arat c între Europa de Vest i Europa de Est exist o diferen major în ceea ce prive te calitatea sistemelor publice de C&I. O alt delimitare vizibil se mai poate eviden ia i între rile nordice i cele din sudul Europei. Astfel, Grecia, Portugalia, Spania i Fran a, se situeaz sub media UE i men in o pozi ie intermediar între Europa de Est Europa Central i de Nord. În concordan cu ambii indicatori prezenta i, Letonia, Bulgaria, Croa ia i România sunt rile membre ale Uniunii Europene cu cea mai slab calitate a sistemului public de CDI i cu cea mai slab baz tiin iÞ c .


Pentru aceste ri, consolidarea capacit ii de CDI impune cre terea investi iilor i coordonarea acestora cu reforme majore pentru a cre te eÞ cien a acestora. Olanda i Danemarca, urmat de Suedia i Regatul Unit, precum i Belgia sunt statele membre UE ce de in cea mai puternic baz tiin iÞ c . Provocarea principal pentru aceste ri const în a transforma aceast baz tiin iÞ c în inova ii de clas mondial , cu o for economic crescut care

prin comercializare s poat asigura cre terea competitivit ii interna ionale a UE pe scena global . În Fran a i Finlanda nivel tiin iÞ c de performan nu se ridic la nivelul cheltuielilor publice realizate în domeniul cercet rii i dezvolt rii ceea ce sugereaz o problem legat de eÞ cien a investi iilor. Conform analizei realizate în perioada 2007 – 2013, unele ri ale UE, cum ar Þ Danemarca i Germania au Þ nan at sistemul public de cercetare chiar i dup declan area crizei economice, men inând un nivel ridicat al cheltuielilor

publice pentru cercetare i de dezvoltare, iar alte ri din Europa Central i de Est (Estonia i Cehia) prezint o cre tere puternic în intensitatea CDI ca urmare a utiliz rii, începând cu anul 2007 a fondurilor structurale europene. Pe de alt parte, ri care au alocat surse mult sub media UE 28 pentru CDI i înainte de 2007, au redus în continuare aceste aloc ri i dup 2007. În aceast situa ie se aß România, Bulgaria, Croa ia i Ungaria. Slaba Þ nan are a CDI în aceste ri duce la întârzieri ale dezvolt rii economiei bazate pe cunoa tere în aceste ri. Cu toate acestea, cre terea Þ nan rii CDI luat în mod individual nu este suÞ cient , Þ ind necesare reforme na ionale ambi ioase pentru cre terea eÞ cien ei economice i stimularea investi iilor publice i private în domeniul CDI. Rapoartele na ionale realizate de Comisia European au identiÞ cat o serie de reforme în jurul a trei priorit i: calitatea strategiei i dezvoltarea procesului de elaborare a politicilor; calitatea programelor, a resurselor i mecanismelor de prioritizare i de Þ nan are; i calitatea cercet rii i inov rii performante. În unele state membre cum ar Þ Croa ia i România, institute de cercetare se confrunt cu o fragmentare excesiv , ceea ce reprezint un obstacol important în calea cre terii eÞ cien ei sistemului public de cercetare. Unele state membre au nevoie urgent de a promova rela iile comerciale i cooperarea tiin iÞ c între cercetarea public i sectorul de afaceri. Figura 3 de mai jos arat pe axa vertical , volumul de cercetare care este realizat în sistemul de cercetare public i care este Þ nan at de c tre întreprinderi (ca procent din PIB). Ace ti indicatori sunt în special cele relevante ca „cercetarea pe baz de contract” sau investi ii directe realizate în proiecte concrete realizate de organiza iile publice de cercetare ce ofer puternice angajamente public-private în CDI. rile cu un nivel de performan redus pe indicatorul de cooperare public-privat sunt de cele mai multe ori, de asemenea, cele cu o baz tiin iÞ c


de ansamblu de o calitate inferioar . Cu toate acestea, unele state membre cu o baz medie sau chiar excelen tiin iÞ c în mod clar nu au un nivel de cooperare public-privat la fel de mare cum ar Þ de a teptat. Aceast situa ie include Portugalia, Italia, Luxemburg, Irlanda (statele membre cu o baz medie tiin iÞ c de calitate), precum i, de exemplu, Danemarca i Suedia (în ciuda excelen ei tiin iÞ ce). Rapoartele de ar ale Comisiei Europene identiÞ c o serie de factori care explic nivelul sc zut de cooperare public-privat, care trebuie s Þ e adresate. Astfel, una dintre ele este lipsa armoniz rii dintre capacitatea de cercetare public i nevoile economice. De exemplu, în Luxemburg, investi iile din ultimele trei decenii în cercetare nu s-au realizat neap rat în urma unor evalu ri globale a activit ilor economice legate de poten ialul acestora de dezvoltare. Strategiile de specializare inteligent ar trebui s concentreze resursele în cazul în care acestea pot dezvolta activit i economice competitive; Þ ind important s se încurajeze cooperarea dintre tiin i mediul de afaceri, cheltuielile publice i mobilizarea investi iilor private. De asemenea, sistemul de sprijin public trebuie s Þ e proiectat astfel încât capacitatea de cercetare public s poat Þ mobilizat pentru a satisface necesit ile industriei i economiei. Acest lucru necesit , în special încurajarea cercet rii publice, în special la nivel institu ional (pentru atragerea mediului de afaceri) i la nivelul cercet torilor (prin recunoa terea experien ei din sectorul privat, în cazul în care cariera va continua în sectorul public de cercetare). De asemenea, este important integrarea doctoranzilor în industrie i dezvoltarea de scheme de Þ nan are pentru proiecte de cercetare i comercializare public – private. UE este cu mult în urma altor regiuni care conduc din punct de vedere al competitivit ii economice bazate pe cercetare, dezvoltare i inovare. Prin urmare, este esen ial s se accelereze reformele la nivel na ional pentru înl turarea barierelor de reglementare i pentru a se asigura un mediu de investi ii favorabil care s stimuleze întreprinderile europene s investeasc în activit i de CDI. În timp ce unele state membre au prezentat o cre tere puternic a intensit ii investi iilor în CDI pentru a prinde din urm celelalte state, altele au suferit tendin e negative în perioada 2007-2013. Aceasta categorie include România, Luxemburg, Cipru, Letonia, Spania, Marea Britanie, Suedia i Finlanda. Cre terea sprijinului acordat IMM-urile cu poten ial de cre tere rapid în sectoare inovatoare, poate contribui la accelerarea modiÞ c rilor structurale i transformarea Uniunii Europene într-o economie concentrat pe cuno tin e i bazate pe inovare. Cre terea economic a UE va depinde în mod critic de

IMM-urile cu poten ial de cre tere rapid deoarece acestea au poten ialul de


a crea mai multe locuri de munc (vezi Fig. 1.15 de mai jos). În momentul de fa , în Uniunea European , IMM-urile cu poten ial de cre tere rapid cresc totu i mai lent decât în SUA sau în rile în alte ri emergente iar i mai pu ine dintre ele ajung companii de talie mondial 1. Punctajul redus al Belgiei se traduce prin deÞ cien e în termeni de antreprenoriat i dinamic . Acest blocaj împiedic traducerea punctelor forte ale sistemului s u de C & I în performan economic . Din p cate, politicile CDI nu au putut schimba starea de fapt existent prin care principalele activit i de CDI r mân în continuare în cadrul companiilor multina ionale.

Num rul de angaja i din companiile cu cre tere rapid (pân la 10% sau mai mult) ca procent din totalul angaja ilor:

Figura 1

Date preluate de la Eurostat i interpretate de autor În plus fa de factorii lega i de baza tiin iÞ c , rapoartele Comisiei Europene identiÞ c al i factori i aspecte care trebuie abordate pentru sus inerea investi iilor în cercetare-dezvoltare i inovare. Acestea sunt de multe ori probleme legate de disponibilitatea, accesibilitatea i eÞ cien a sprijinului public direct pentru CDI i alte stimulente pentru a realizarea de investi ii CDI. Sarcinile administrative legate de sprijinul public pot constitui obstacole importante în special pentru IMM-uri. Din acest motiv, schemele de credit dezvoltate pentru sprijinul investi iilor CDI sau facilit ile oferite companiilor ce investesc în acest domeniu, trebuie bine reglementate astfel

1. Pop (Bandi), R. (2011). European Policies For The Stimulation Of The Development Of Small And Middle Size Entreprises, The Annals of the University of Oradea. Economic Sci-ences, Volume (Year): 1 (2011), Issue (Month): 2 (December), Pages: 774-777


încât s Þ e luate în considerare nevoile rale ale IMM-urilor ia ale companiilor aß ate în stadiu incipient de dezvoltare1. O alt problem identiÞ cat este lipsa competen elor adecvate. Aceast situa ie este rezultatul necorel rii curiculei academice cu pia a muncii. De asemenea, accesul la Þ nan are este un al factor esen ial. În general, promovarea unui mediu de afaceri favorabil i a investi iilor în cercetare i dezvoltare i inovare, necesit mobilizarea unui set coerent de politici. În multe state membre, problema-cheie este aceea de a asigura consolidarea guvernan ei corporative. Intensitatea de cercetare i dezvoltare ca procent din PIB reß ect gradul de cercetare i dezvoltare efectuate într-o ar , atât în sectorul public cât i în cel privat. Strategia Europa 2020 a stabilit un obiectiv de 3% din intensitatea CDI pentru întreaga Uniune European i majoritatea statelor membre au adoptat un obiectiv na ional de intensitate CDI care trebuie atins pân în anul 2020. Statistic, Uniunea European are înc o performan bun în lume, în domeniul CDI. Cu doar 7% din popula ia mondial , UE reprezint 24% din cheltuielile globale pentru cercetare, 32% din publica iile tiin iÞ ce cu impact ridicat, i 32% din cererile de brevet de inven ie. UE este destina ia a 30% din investi iile directe din lume, procent mai ridicat decât Statele Unite sau Japonia. In ultimul deceniu, UE i-a men inut mult mai bine pozi ia pe pia a mondial decât Statele Unite, cu toate acestea, în ceea ce prive te investi iile în cercetare i dezvoltare, UE a f cut progrese insuÞ ciente în vederea atingerii obiectivului Europa 2020 cu privire la atingerea intensit ii de CDI în 2020 de 3% din PIB. În anul 2013 de exemplu, intensitatea CDI a UE 28 a fost de 2,01%, ceea ce o situeaz pe o pozi ie inferioar fa de alte ri din lume. Acest lucru semniÞ c faptul c companiile europene au investiti mai pu in în cercetare i dezvoltare comparativ cu alte regiuni ale lumii (UE a alocat 1,28% din PIB; China a alocat 1,51% din PIB, SUA 1,96% din PIB, Japonia 2,6% din PIB).

1. Norden, L., van Kampen, S. (2015). The Dynamics of Trade Credit and Bank Debt in SME Finance: International Evidence, in: Angus Moore & John Simon (ed.) Small Business Condi-tions and Finance, Reserve Bank of Australia, 2015.


Obiectivul na ional i nivelul de intensitate CDI atins în 2013Figura 2

Date preluate de la Eurostat i interpretate de autor

Figura 2 de mai sus analizeaz pentru Þ ecare stat membru, cre terea real a intensit ii CDI atinse în 2013, i cre terea necesar pentru a atinge obiectivul în 2013 - 2020. Intensitatea a crescut în perioada 2007-2013, dar majoritatea statelor membre au nevoie de o cre tere mult mai rapid a intensit ii CDI pentru a atinge obiectivul vizat pentru anul 2020. Situa ia este cu atât mai diÞ cil pentru România, Luxemburg, Marea Britanie i Finlanda, care ar trebui s inverseze tendin a de sc dere. În Spania, Suedia i Croa ia, situa ia din perioada 2007-2013 poate Þ cel mai bine descris ca stagnare. În timp ce Danemarca, Cipru i Germania au atins obiectivele lor, sau vor ajunge în curând nivelul de ambi ie al acestor obiective, poate Þ pus la îndoial . Slovenia, Slovacia, Ungaria, Irlanda, Estonia i Belgia într-o anumit m sur , par pe drumul cel bun pentru a atinge obiectivul, dar durabilitatea tendin elor recente ar trebui evaluate cu aten ie în Þ ecare caz în parte. De exemplu, în Estonia, intensitatea crescut a cercet rii i dezvolt rii este în mare m sur concentrat în sectorul gazelor de ist, reß ectând mai mult o împrejurare decât o tendin general pentru sus inerea CDI în ar .

Concluzii Succesul dezvoltarii sectorului CDI in Europa este strans legat de urmatoarele doua programe: Orizont 2020 si COSME. Orizont 2020 este programul european de cercetare i inovare pentru perioada de Þ nan are 2014-2020. Acesta reune te într-un cadru unic, coerent i ß exibil toate Þ nan area cercet rii i inov rii existente în perioada de Þ nan are 2007-2013 :


Programul-cadru pentru cercetare i dezvoltare tehnologic , Programul pentru competitivitate i inovare (CIP) i Institutul European de Inovare i Tehnologie (EIT). Orizont 2020 ofer Þ nan are pentru Þ ecare etap a procesului de inovare de la cercetarea de baz la adoptarea de c tre pia a produsului. Acesta este instrumentul Þ nanciar de punere în aplicare a unei Uniuni a inov rii. Orizont 2020 se compune din trei priorit i sau piloni, care sunt implementate prin program speciÞ c i o contribu ie Þ nanciar dedicat : Excelen tiin iÞ c ; Leadership industrial ; Provoc ri societale. Obiectivele Generale ale Orizont 2020 vizeaz promovarea excelen ei tiin iÞ ce i a sistemului european de cercetare; Cre terea i sus inerea competitivit ii i avansului în sectorul industrial european; Reducerea decalajului între cercetare i pia . Noul program pentru competitivitatea întreprinderilor i întreprinderile mici i mijlocii (Cosme) are ca scop sprijinirea competitivit ii, cre terea i durabilitatea întreprinderilor din UE, IMM-urile, în special, i promovarea spiritului antreprenorial. Pentru a atinge acest obiectiv, programul faciliteaz accesul IMM-urilor la Þ nan are prin acordarea de garan ii de împrumut i capitalul de risc, faciliteaz accesul la noi pie e din interiorul i din afara UE i îmbun t e te condi iile-cadru pentru întreprinderi, de exemplu, prin reducerea sarcinii administrative asupra IMM-urilor. COSME se bazeaz pe rezultatele i lec iile înv ate din Programul pentru inova ie i antreprenoriat (EIP): cum ar Þ Enterprise Europe Network. Se asigur continuitatea cu initiativele i ac iunile luate în conformitate cu EIP i continu multe caracteristici de succes ale acestuia, simpliÞ când managementul acestuia pentru a-l face mai u or de accesat pentru antreprenori si IMM-uri. Obiectivul General al COSME vizeaz consolidarea competitivit ii i a durabilit ii întreprinderilor din UE, încurajarea culturii antreprenoriale i a promov rii, cre rii i dezvolt rii IMM-urilor. Aceste obiective vor Þ îndeplinite prin: accesul la Þ nan are pentru IMM-uri; accesul la pie e din interiorul Uniunii, dar i la nivel global; condi ii-cadru pentru întreprinderi; antreprenoriatului i culturii antreprenoriale.

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3. Audretsch, D. B. (2014). From the entrepreneurial university to the university for the entrepreneurial society. The Journal of Technology Transfer, 39(3), 313-321.


4. Bozeman, B., & Melkers, J. (Eds.). (2013). Evaluating R&D impacts: Methods and practice. Springer Science & Business Media.

5. Capello, R., & Lenzi, C. (2016). Relevance and utility of European Union research, technological development and innovation policies for a smart growth. Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy, 34(1), 52-72.

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ECONOMIC POTENTIAL OF INVESTMENTS IN RESEARCH - DEVELOPMENT –

INNOVATION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

Assistant Professor Dr. Diana Valentina Dumitrescu„Artifex” University of Bucharest, Academy of Economic Studies, BucharestDr. Daniel Ioan Dumitrescu

Abstract At both European and global level, there is a growing focus on identifying those economic sectors that can bring economic growth, thus increasing global competitiveness. From this point of view, the European Commission identiÞ ed at the end of the Multi-Annual Financial Framework 2007 - 2013 a European Union-wide competitiveness gap with other global economies such as the United States of America. The New Multiannual Financial Framework 2014-2020 is addressing this European Union’s lack of economic competitiveness by trying to identify those sectors of smart growth that could secure Europe’s economic growth. The present paper wanted to analyze those methods of GDP growth through investments in Research - Development - Innovation. Key words: research, development, innovation, Europa

Introduction The area of Research and Development (CDI) plays a leading role in the Europe 2020 Strategy, being a key factor in achieving smart, sustainable growth and meeting societal challenges. In addition to direct and immediate impact (product, process or service innovation and environmental, scientiÞ c publications, patents), RDI also has a broader economic impact, by gaining larger market shares, achieving greater productivity, Increasing industrial competitiveness and more efÞ cient use of resources. Analysis of RDI policy in the EU Member States is based on a two-step approach. The Þ rst step is to identify, for each Member State, on the basis of a set of performance indicators, the main policy challenges that highlight the bottlenecks that prevent the full contribution of RDI to smart, sustainable and inclusive growth. The second step is to assess the appropriateness of policy responses to identiÞ ed problems.

Literature review Albort-Morant and Ribeiro-Soriano (2016) realize a bibliometric study focused on the impact of business incubators on international plan.


Correa, Andrés and Borja-Vega (2013) analzye the effect of public funding support for private companies’ investment policies related to research and development activities. Audretsch (2014) considers the perspectives of the concept of entrepreneurial university. The volume edited by Bozeman and Melkers (2013) is a reference document in the Þ eld of research-development ex-post evaluation. Anghelache, Soare, Marinescu (2014) develop on the correlation between the population and labor force market in Romania. Capello and Lenzi (2016) study the relevance and utility of the research policies applied in the European Union in the scope of smart growth. Ebner and Bocek (2015) developed a set of practices regarding the support for investment in knowledge. Scaringella and Chanaron (2016) study the Grenoble–GIANT innovation models for the case of research infrastructures. Schut et.al. (2016) develop on the role of innovation platforms. Sung and Choi (2014) evaluate the impact of training and develoment-related expenses made for employees on innovation. Von Schomberg (2013) develops a vision focused on the responsible component of research and innovation.

Methodology and data The Public Innovation Research System, made up of higher education institutions and other research and innovation authorities and agencies such as public research centers and institutes, has a leading role in producing knowledge and training professionals needed for innovation in companies Private or public. The qualitative assessment of this RDI system within the EU 28 identiÞ es its Member States where this issue can be addressed and resolved. The assessment of the quality of the public C & I system can be achieved through several relevant indicators such as „bibliometry” used to assess the impact of scientiÞ c publications on generating new scientiÞ c data; The number of „European Research Council” grants / grants received by researchers from a country and assimilated to scientiÞ c excellence awards; The number of universities in international rankings. All these indicators show that between Western Europe and Eastern Europe there is a major difference in the quality of public R & D systems. Another visible boundary can also be seen between the northern and southern European countries. Thus, Greece, Portugal, Spain and France are below the EU average and maintain an intermediate position between Eastern Europe Central and Northern Europe. In line with both indicators, Latvia, Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania are the EU Member States with the poorest quality of the public RDI system and the weakest scientiÞ c basis. For these countries, strengthening RDI capacity requires increased investment and coordination with major reforms to increase their efÞ ciency.


The Netherlands and Denmark, followed by Sweden and the United Kingdom, as well as Belgium are the EU Member States with the strongest scientiÞ c base. The main challenge for these countries is to turn this scientiÞ c base into world-class innovations, with an increased economic force that, through trade, can ensure increased international competitiveness of the EU on the global stage. In France and Finland, the scientiÞ c level of performance does not amount to the level of public spending on research and development which suggests an investment efÞ ciency problem. According to the analysis carried out in 2007-13, some EU countries, such as Denmark and Germany, have funded the public research system even after the economic crisis, maintaining a high level of public spending on research and development, and other countries in Central and Eastern Europe (Estonia and the Czech Republic) show strong growth in RDI intensity as a result of the use of European Structural Funds since 2007. On the other hand, countries that have allocated resources well below the EU-27 average for RDI and before 2007 have further reduced these allocations beyond 2007. In this situation are Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia and Hungary. The poor Þ nancing of RDI in these countries leads to delays in the development of knowledge-based economy in these countries. However, the increase in individual RDI funding is not sufÞ cient, with ambitious national reforms needed to increase economic efÞ ciency and stimulate public and private R & D investment. National reports by the European Commission identiÞ ed a series of reforms around three priorities: the quality of the strategy and the development of the policy-making process; The quality of programs, resources and prioritization and funding mechanisms; And the quality of research and innovation. In some Member States, such as Croatia and Romania, research institutes are facing excessive fragmentation, which is an important obstacle to increasing the efÞ ciency of the public research system. Some Member States urgently need to promote trade relations and scientiÞ c cooperation between public research and the business sector. Figure 3 below shows on the vertical axis the volume of research that is carried out in the public research system and which is Þ nanced by enterprises (as a percentage of GDP). These indicators are especially relevant as „contract research” or direct investments made in concrete projects carried out by public research organizations that offer strong public-private engagements in RDI. Countries with a low level of performance on the public-private co-operation indicator are also often also those with a lower overall quality scientiÞ c base. However, some Member States with a medium or even scientiÞ c excellence clearly do not have a level of public-private cooperation as high as expected. This situation includes Portugal, Italy, Luxembourg,


Ireland (Member States with a medium-quality scientiÞ c basis) as well as, for example, Denmark and Sweden (despite scientiÞ c excellence). The country reports of the European Commission identify a number of factors that explain the low level of public-private cooperation that needs to be addressed. One of them is the lack of harmonization between public research capacity and economic needs. For example, in Luxembourg, investment in the last three decades in research has not necessarily been the result of global economic assessments of their development potential. Intelligent specialization strategies should focus resources if they can develop competitive economic activities; It is important to encourage cooperation between science and the business environment, public spending and the mobilization of private investment. The public support system must also be designed in such a way that public research capacity can be mobilized to meet the needs of industry and the economy. This requires, in particular, the encouragement of public research, especially at institutional level (to attract the business environment) and at the level of researchers (through recognition of private sector experience, if the career will continue in the public research sector). It is also important to integrate PhD students into industry and to develop funding schemes for public and private research and marketing projects. The EU is far behind other regions that are conducive to economic competitiveness based on research, development and innovation. It is therefore essential to speed up national reforms to remove regulatory barriers and to ensure a favorable investment environment to stimulate European businesses to invest in RDI activities. While some Member States have shown a strong increase in RDI investment intensity to catch up with other countries, others have suffered negative trends over the period 2007-2013. This category includes Romania, Luxembourg, Cyprus, Latvia, Spain, Great Britain, Sweden and Finland. Increasing support for SMEs with rapid growth potential in innovative sectors can help accelerate structural change and turn the European Union into a knowledge-based and innovation-based economy. EU growth will depend critically on SMEs with rapid growth potential as they have the potential to create more jobs (see Figure 1.15 below). At present, in the European Union, SMEs with rapid growth potential are still growing slower than in the US or in other emerging countries, and fewer of them are world-class companies. Belgium’s low scoring translates into deÞ ciencies in terms of entrepreneurship and dynamics. This jam prevents the translation of the strengths of its C & I system into economic performance. Unfortunately, RDI policies could not change the existing state of affairs whereby main RDI activities still remain within multinational companies.


Number of employees in fast growing companies (up to 10% or more) as a percentage of total employees

Figure 1

Data taken from Eurostat and interpreted by the author

In addition to the factors linked to the scientiÞ c basis, the Commission’s reports identify other factors and issues to be addressed to support R & D and innovation investment. These are often issues related to the availability, accessibility and effectiveness of direct public support for RDI and other incentives to make RDI investment. Administrative burdens related to public support may be important obstacles, especially for SMEs. For this reason, credit schemes developed to support RDI investment or facilities offered to companies that invest in this Þ eld must be well regulated to take into account the malicious needs of SMEs and early-stage development companies. Another identiÞ ed problem is the lack of adequate skills. This situation is the result of the lack of correlation between the academic curriculum and the labor market. Access to Þ nance is also an essential factor. In general, promoting a favorable business environment and investing in R & D and innovation requires mobilizing a coherent set of policies. In many Member States, the key issue is to ensure corporate governance consolidation. Research and development intensity as a percentage of GDP reß ects the degree of R & D carried out in a country, both in the public and private sectors. The Europe 2020 strategy has set a 3% target for RDI intensity across the European Union, and most Member States have adopted a national RDI intensity target to be achieved by 2020. Statistically, the European Union still has good performance in the world, RDI Þ eld. With only 7% of the world’s population, the EU represents 24% of global research spending, 32% of high impact scientiÞ c publications, and 32% of patent applications. The EU is the


target of 30% of the world’s direct investment, higher than the United States or Japan. Over the last decade, the EU has maintained its position on the world market far better than the United States, however, with regard to research and development investment, the EU has made insufÞ cient progress towards the Europe 2020 target of achieving the intensity Of RDI in 2020 of 3% of GDP. In 2013, for example, EU RDI intensity 28 was 2.01%, which puts it in a lower position than other countries in the world. This means that European companies invest less in R & D compared to other regions of the world (the EU has allocated 1.28% of GDP, China has allocated 1.51% of GDP, US 1.96% of GDP, Japan 2.6% of GDP).

National objective and RDI intensity level reached in 2013Figure 2


Figure 2 above analyzes for each Member State the real increase in RDI intensity in 2013 and the increase needed to reach the target in 2013-2020. The intensity increased over the period 2007-2013 but most Member States need growth Much faster RDI intensity to reach the 2020 target. The situation is all the more difÞ cult for Romania, Luxembourg, the UK and Finland, which should reverse the downward trend. In Spain, Sweden and Croatia, the 2007-13 situation may be best described as stagnation. While Denmark, Cyprus and Germany have achieved their goals, or will soon reach the ambition level of these goals, it can be questioned. Slovenia, Slovakia, Hungary, Ireland, Estonia and Belgium to some extent seem to be on the right track to achieve the goal, but the sustainability of recent trends should be carefully assessed on


a case-by-case basis. For example, in Estonia, the increased intensity of R & D is largely concentrated in the shale gas sector, reß ecting more a circumstance than a general trend for RDI support in the country.

Conclusions The success of the RDI sector in Europe is closely linked to the following two programs: Horizon 2020 and COSME. Horizon 2020 is the European research and innovation program for the 2014-2020 funding period. It brings together all the research and innovation funding available during the 2007-2013 funding phase: the Framework Program for Research and Technological Development, the Competitiveness and Innovation Program (CIP) and the European Institute of Innovation and Technology EIT). Horizon 2020 provides funding for each stage of the innovation process from basic research to market adoption of the product. This is the Þ nancial instrument for implementing an Innovation Union. Horizon 2020 consists of three priorities or pillars that are implemented through a speciÞ c program and a dedicated Þ nancial contribution: ScientiÞ c Excellence; Leadership industrial; Societal Challenges. The general objectives of Horizon 2020 are to promote scientiÞ c excellence and the European research system; Increasing and sustaining competitiveness and advancement in the European industrial sector; Reducing the gap between research and the market. The new Enterprise Competitiveness and Small and Medium Enterprises (Cosme) program aims to support the competitiveness, growth and sustainability of EU businesses, SMEs in particular, and the promotion of entrepreneurship. To achieve this, the program facilitates SMEs’ access to Þ nance by providing loan guarantees and risk capital, facilitating access to new markets inside and outside the EU and improving framework conditions for businesses, for example by reducing the burden Administrative burden on SMEs. COSME is based on the results and lessons learned from the Innovation and Entrepreneurship Program (EIP): such as the Enterprise Europe Network. Ensuring continuity with initiatives and actions taken under the EIP and continuing its many successful features, simplifying its management to make it easier to access for entrepreneurs and SMEs. The COSME General Objective aims to strengthen the competitiveness and sustainability of EU businesses, foster entrepreneurial culture and promote, create and develop SMEs. These objectives will be achieved through: access to Þ nance for SMEs; Access to markets within the Union but also globally; Framework conditions for businesses; Entrepreneurship and entrepreneurial culture.


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No iuni privind politicile monetare i Þ scale optime

Prof. univ. dr. Constantin ANGHELACHE ([email protected])

Academia de Studii Economice, Bucure ti / Universitatea „Artifex”, Bucure tiProf. univ. dr. Mihai P UNIC ([email protected])

Academia de Studii Economice din Bucure tiDrd. Gyorgy BODO ([email protected])

Academia de Studii Economice din Bucure tiDrd. Maria MIREA ([email protected])


Abstract Acest articol are în vedere o abordare detaliat a politicilor guvernamentale optime, având în vedere implica iile privind politica monetar i pe politica Þ scal . Analiza are în vedere trei etape distincte. În prima faz de analiz /modelare facem abstrac ie de capitalul Þ zic, caz în care economia tinde c tre o stare echilibrat (steady-state), iar politica guvernamental optim poate Þ analizat în stare static (pur ). În faza a doua faz , introducem no iunea (variabila) de capital, reintroducând astfel dinamica în modelul de analiz . În Þ nal vom avea în vedere studierea unor aspecte legate de consisten a temporal a politicilor optime i continuitatea deciziilor guvernamentale privind politicile (monetare i Þ scale). Cuvinte cheie: politici monetare, politici Þ scale, consum, bun stare, echilibru macroeconomic ClasiÞ carea JEL: E52, E62

Introducere Un rol important ale guvernelor este de a implementa politici care s duc la realizarea unor obiective. Presupunând c guvernele sunt de bun inten ie i î i orienteaz politicile spre bun starea cet enilor pe care le reprezint , atunci politicile pot Þ evaluate prin prisma bun st rii agen ilor reprezentativi (care reunesc atât gospod riile <indivizii> cât si Þ rmele). Aceste aspecte au fost introduse in literatura de specialitate privind studiile macroeconomice sub titulatura de „teoria politicilor economice” care au fost tratate ini ial de c tre Timberger (1952) si Teil (1958) urmate de c tre Turnovsky (1977), Atkinson i Stiglitz (1980) etc. În acest articol vom încerca s avem o abordare detaliat a politicilor guvernamentale optime, punând accent atât pe politica monetar cât i pe politica


Þ scal , dar i pe compromisul dintre ele. Abordarea noastr are în vedere trei etape distincte. Astfel, în prima faz , facem abstrac ie de capitalul Þ zic, caz în care dinamica economiei scade (degenereaz ) iar economia este în stare echilibrat (steady-state). Aceast abordare are avantajul ca politica guvernamental optim poate Þ analizat în stare static (pur ), cea ce ne permite s utiliz m abordarea tradi ional a Þ nan elor publice prim metoda tax rii Ramsey. În faza a doua, introducem no iunea (variabila) de capital Þ zic, prin care reintroducem dinamica în starea de echilibru precedent considerat. De i analiza devine mai complicat , dar totu i putem trage concluzii privind unele aspectele principale ale acestuia. În Þ nal vom avea în vedere studierea unor aspecte legate de consisten a temporal a politici optime i formularea unor concluzii.

Literature review Alfaro i Kanczuk (2009) dezvolt pe tema corela iei dintre managementul optim al rezervelor i datoria suveran . Angelini, Neri i Panetta (2014) analizeaz leg tura dintre cerin ele referitoare la capital i politica monetar , Angeloni i Faia (2013) se concentreaz pe reglementarea capitalului i politica monetar în cazul particular al b ncilor caracterizate de o situa ie

fragil . Anghel, Anghelache, Samson i Stoica (2016) studiaz evolu ia indicelui pre urilor de consum ale popula iei, sub impactul anumitor m suri, de tip Þ scal, de politic monetar . Mian, Rao i SuÞ (2013) descriu corela ia dintre bilan ul gospod riilor i consum. Anghel (2015) este o lucrare de referin în domeniul analizelor Þ nanciare i monetare, Anghelache, Anghel i Popovici (2016) prezint un model dedicat analizelor Þ nanciar-monetare. Kaplan i Violante (2014) eviden iaz un model dedicat studiului r spunsului indicatorilor de consum la politicile Þ scale de tip stimulent. Dell’Ariccia, Igan i Laeven (2012) se preocup de standardele de creditare asociate creditelor cu ipotec „subprime”. Farhi i Werning (2016) dezvolt o teorie a politicilor macropruden iale. Anghel (2015) abordeaz pia a monetar , indicatorii i politicile asociate.Anghelache i Manole (2016) eviden iaz aplicarea modelului de regresie în studiul interdependen ei dintre indicatorii pie ei monetare. Anghelache, Anghel, Manole, Lilea (2016), Anghelache (2011) reprezint lucr ri fundamentale în modelarea economico-Þ nanciar . Halac i Yared (2014) se preocup de impactul ocurilor asupra regulilor Þ scale. Bassetto i Messer (2013) evalueaz consecin ele Þ scale ale dobânzilor ob inute ca urmare a rezervelor depuse. Tracy i Wright (2016) studiaz impactul reÞ nan rii asupra pierderilor a teptate asociate implic rii în creditare. Anghelache, Anghelache, Anghel, Ni , Sacal (2016) propun i descriu un model de analiz al investi iilor Þ nanciare, corelate cu execu ia bugetar , în cazul României. Azzimonti, Battaglini i Coate (2016) evalueaz costurile i beneÞ ciile regulilor de buget echilibrat. Anghelache,


Anghelache i Anghel (2015,2014), Anghelache, Manole i Anghel (2013) au analizat, din multiple puncte de vedere, situa ia Þ nanciar-monetar la zi a economiei României i evolu iile înregistrate de indicatorii studia i. Gabaix i Maggiori (2015) se preocup de evolu ia lichidit ii i ratelor de schib valuar pe plan interna ional. Gertler i Karadi (2011) dezvolt un model pentru politici monetare speciale. Woodford (2013) se preocup de analiza macroeconomic în contextul excluderii ipotezei a tept rilor ra ionale. Rubio (2011) se preocup de studiul instrumentelor de credit ipotecare cu dobând Þ x sau variabil i corela ia acestora cu ciclurile economice i politicile monetare.

Metodologia cercet rii i date • Modelul pe care ne baz m este un model simpliÞ cat al celui dezvoltat de Turnovsky si Brock (1980), în care pentru simplitate, pe de o parte am f cut abstrac ie de capitalul Þ zic, iar pe de alt parte, am comasat comportamentul Þ rmelor i indivizilor în a a numit agent reprezentativ, care are posibilitatea de a face previziuni perfecte. Acest agent reprezentativ are posibilitatea de a decide asupra propriului nivel de consum (c), accesul la for a de munc (l), disponibilul de bani reali (m), si posesia de titluri de stat (b) astfel încât s se maximizeze utilitatea inter-temporal : Constrângerea de buget al agentului reprezentativ este exprimat prin: (1) Pe de alt parte, cel lalt juc tor în economie, guvernul, are in vedere propriile constrângeri de buget, ce poate Þ exprimat prin: (2) unde: c = consumul real; g = cheltuielile reale ale guvernului; m = soldul real a bani; M = soldul nominal de bani; b = stocul real de titluri de stat; B = stocul nominal de titluri de stat; l = disponibilul de for de munc ; P = nivelul pre urilor; p = rata inß a iei; r = dobânda nominal ; = rata impozitului pe proÞ t; T = impozit forfetar real. Am presupus ca pentru anumite valori date ale lui c, g i l, utilitatea marginal a soldului de bani satisface condi ia:


Din cele de mai sus putem trage concluzia c , atunci când posesia real de bani a agentului este mai mic decât nivelul de sa ietate, atunci utilitatea marginal a posesiei de bani este pozitiv , iar atunci când este mai mare, costul de inerii de bani este mai mare decât beneÞ ciile, situa ie în care marginea de utilitate net a de inerii de bani devine negativ . F când diferen a dintre (1) i (2) rezult Condi ia de pia a produsului agregat: (3) În general, guvernul are la dispozi ie cinci instrumente (politici): M, B, , T i g, dintre care oricare patru variabile sunt independente, dar acestea pot varia relativ arbitrar în decursul timpului. Având în vedere echilibrul modelului, politicile optime ajung s Þ e sta ionare în timp, ceea ce conduce la ideea c putem s presupunem c guvernul permite ca oferta monetar s creasc cu rata Þ x . Astfel, cre terea real monetar se exprim prin: (4) ceea ce se poate exprima prin rata de acumulare a titlurilor de stat prezent sub forma: (5)

• Echilibrul macroeconomic poate Þ descris prin ecua iile:

(6)

În absen a acumul rii de capital trebuie s ar t m c dinamica sistemului scade (degenereaz ), i tinde c tre o stare de echilibru stabil. Faptul c dinamica echilibrului macroeconomic scade poate Þ observat prin faptul c func ia de utilitate este separabil prin însumare fa de m, iar rezolvarea conduce c tre situa ia în care solu ia pentru c, l i care sunt constante in timp. În acest caz, putem concluziona c rata real de dobând poate Þ exprimat prin r - p = b, de unde rezult c rata inß a iei este de forma: (7) În absen a acumul rii de capital putem ar ta c dinamica degenereaz , iar sistemul întotdeauna ajunge în stadiu de echilibru ferm „steady-state” ceea ce conduce la solu ia ecua iilor de forma:


(8)

În aceast situa ie putem s aproxim m evolu ia volumului real de mani în jurul echilibrului prin:

Având pe c i l constante, ecua ia (5) poate Þ rezolvat cu u urin i ajungem la solu ia în care pentru situa ia de echilibru avem nevoie de

îndeplinirea condi iei:

(9)

ceea ce reprezint , de fapt, constrângerea intertemporal bugetar a guvernului, prin care se aÞ rm c deÞ citul bugetar în condi ia de dobânzii reale trebuie s Þ e zero. Astfel, echilibrul previzionat poate Þ descris prin ecua iile:

(10)

Toate aceste ecua ii indic faptul c , dac nu exist dinamic , atunci nu exist acumul ri de titluri sau bani, iar economia ajunge in stare de echilibru ferm. De fapt, orice oc in sistem va genera un salt instantaneu al pre urilor cea ce va determina ca soldul real de bani s creasc pentru a ajunge c tre un nou stadiu de echilibru descris de (8). Cele cinci ecua ii care descriu solu ia sta ionar pentru c, l, m, i una dintre instrumentele politicilor , T, sau g. Cu alte cuvinte, trei dintre parametrii politicilor pot Þ alese arbitrar, pe când cel r mas se adapteaz astfel încât s satisfac starea de echilibru. Echilibrul macroeconomic scoate in evident dou aspecte cheie referitoare la politica monetar în acest context intertemporal ra ional, i anume: Primul, dac func ia de utilitate este separabil în mod aditiv, pe de o parte în c i l, iar pe de alt parte în m, este clar c st rile de echilibru


pentru consum, munc i output i pot Þ considerate ca Þ ind independente de politicile monetare. Astfel, politicile monetare au impact asupra sistemului numai prin intermediul soldului real de bani i prin rata de substituire între consum i munc ; Al doilea, faptul c trebuie s existe o oarecare form de impozitare pentru un anumit nivel de cre tere monetar dat pentru a sus ine starea de echilibru, subliniaz faptul c exist o constrângere / interdependen între politicile monetare si Þ scale. În cele ce urmeaz vom analiza situa iile pentru care rata de cre tere monetar este astfel aleas încât s optimizeze bun starea popula iei/agentului, luând în considerare dou cazuri: (1) Þ e prin care potrivirea este realizat printr-o sum -impozit forfetar T pe de o parte, (2) respectiv prin taxa de distorsionare pe de alt parte, caz care poate Þ considerat ca Þ in o m sur de potrivire/ajustare Þ scal .

• S lu m în considerare cazul în care economia este sta ionar i condi iile care caracterizeaz alegerile optime ale politicilor guvernamentale. Presupunem c guvernul urm re te s g seasc politici care s maximizeze bog ia inter-emporal a agentului reprezentativ, supus constrângerii de echilibru. Având în vedere, c totul este sta ionar, aceast optimizare poate Þ îndeplinit prin maximizare func iei de utilitate instantanee, care este supus unor constrângeri statice. Problema poate Þ descris Þ e (1) pe de o parte prin a exprima utilitatea optimizat a consumatorului ca Þ ind o func ie indirect fa de utilitatea termenii variabilelor politicilor guvernamentale, dup care se face optimizarea sau (2) prin maximizarea urm toarei expresii Lagrangean:

Putem prezenta optimalitatea din dou perspective. Prima variant are în vedere optimalitatea din punctul de vedere al variabilelor sectorului privat.

(11)


A doua abordare este asociat cu variabilele politicilor guvernamentale.

(12)

• Cre terea monetar optim a fost analizat în literatura de specialitate sub diverse aspecte i perspective. La început, autorii precum Bailey (1956) i Friedman (1971) au analizat fenomenul din perspectiva maximiz rii veniturilor guvernamentale prin intermediul veniturilor din taxa/rata de inß a ie, i au ar tat c cre terea monetar optim depinde de elasticitatea dobânzilor fa de cererea de bani. Tobin (1968) s-a concentrat asupra cre terii monetare din perspectiva maximizare consumului i a ar tat c acest lucru implic conducerea economiei dup regula de aur capital-munc . Îns , cea mai important este abordarea f cut de Bailey (1956) i Friedman (1969) care are în vedere cre terea optim monetar prin maximizarea utilit ii. De aici rezult i propunerea cea mai important cunoscut i regula lui Friedman a „lichidit ii totale”, care stabile te ca rata de cre tere monetar optim se poate realiza prin contractarea furnizarea de bani la rata egal cu rata de temporal preferen ial a consumatorului. • Pentru început s consider m cazul în care guvernul alege s men in echilibrul prin intermediul unei taxe forfetare notat cu T. În acest caz, condi ia de optimalitate conduce la i .Pentru prima condi ie putem avea ori ori . Pentru simplitate consider m aceast valoare din urm i rezult c echilibrul se reduce la setul de ecua ii:

(13)


Rezolvând ecua iile de mai sus rezult valorile optime pentru , iar acestea Þ ind date se poate determina valoarea sumei

forfetare T care este necesar pentru p strarea echilibrului.

(14)

unde: . Rata optim a cre terii monetare se poate descrie prin:

(15)

Din aceast rela ie putem observa c rata cre terii monetare optime este identic cu celebra regula a lichidit ii totale al lui Friedman sau echivalent cu i = 0, numai i numai dac este îndeplinit una din condi iile ca: - dac , sau - dac rata marginal de înlocuire a consumului cu munca este independent de volumul total de bani. În primul caz nu exist tax care s distorsioneze alegerea între consum-relaxare, iar în al doilea caz, întrucât func ia de utilitate este separabil în m prin însumare <additivelly>, face ca alegerea între consum i relaxare s nu aib afecte per ansamblu (suma lor Þ ind constant ).

• În continuare vom analiza cazul în care autorit ile aleg s men in echilibrul prin ajustarea ratei de impozitare, , în loc de impozitarea forfetar . Aceast abordare a fost ini ial descris de Phelps (1973), care a ar tat c exist tendin a c tre politici optime în care distorsiunea creat de c tre tax /impozit, este compensat de distorsiunea în rata inß a iei. În acest caz, rela ia de optimalitate este descris de:

(16)


Ca s realiz m un compromis/o simpliÞ care, este convenabil s presupunem c utilitatea este separabil prim însumare în m, a a cum am considerat în cazul tax rii forfetare . Aceast abordare în care

simpliÞ c modelarea i ajungem:

Astfel, rezolvând ecua iile de mai sus ajungem la:

unde:

• Pân acum am presupus c cheltuielile guvernului sunt constante/Þ xe. Acum s presupunem c guvernul decide nivelul cheltuielilor, g, în corela ie cu o rat de cre tere monetar . În continuare, presupunem c folose te impozitarea forfetar ca metod de adaptarea prin care se ajunge la starea de echilibru stabil (cum am v zut mai înainte ) condi ia marginal se reduce la: De unde eliminând pe Având pe deÞ nite mai sus, rezult condi ia de optimalitate a cheltuielilor bugetare ale guvernului de forma:

(17)

Aceast condi ie poate Þ de fapt interpretat ca utilitatea marginal a cheltuielilor guvernamentale Þ ind egal cu utilitatea marginal ajustat a consumului privat. Dac func ia de utilitate este separabil prin însumare în m, atunci rata de cre tere monetar optim este constant , dat Þ ind un nivel al cheltuielilor bugetare. Dac consider m c guvernul alege o rat de impozitare optim în combina ie cu o rat de cre tere monetar i nivel de cheltuieli g rezult c optimalitatea politicii poate Þ sumarizat :


(18)

În aceast politic macroeconomic optimal , impozitul este considerat zero ceea ce implic eliminarea sursei care produce distorsiune, conform rela iei:

• De când a fost elaborat de c tre Friedman (1969), teoria cre terii monetare optime a fost subiectul unor cercet ri continue. Pot Þ structurate trei abord ri semniÞ cative in literatura de specialitate care au fost sintetizate de c tre Chari si Kehoe (1999). Prima abordare introduce în func ia de utilitate no iunea de bani. Chari si Kehoe furnizeaz o caracterizare general a robuste ii regulilor lui Friedman. Ace tia consider cazul în care preferin ele nu sunt afectate de sa ietate privind soldul de bani reali <real money balance>, dar care este, totu i, angajat <bounded> este optim dac este îndeplinit condi ia de utilitate

, unde w(.) este homotetic. A doua abordare se refer la modelul de avans-în-bani (cash-in-advance) în care exist bani pentru produs c1 i credit pentru produs c2. Chari si Kehoe au demonstrat c modelul Friedman este optimal dac func ia de utilitate este de forma , unde w(.) este de asemenea homotetic. A treia abordare a fost analizat de mai mul i autori i se refer la optimalitatea cunoscut i sub denumirea de economie monetar „shopping-time”. Kimbrough (1986), Faig (1988), Guidotti i Vegh (1993) Correia i Teles (1996) care consider banii ca un bun intermediar unde reprezint timpul de a obtine c unit i de bani, pe când consumatorul are un sold m de bani reali. Putem observa c (i) pentru o cantitate dat de bani este nevoie de timp mai lung pentru a ob ine mai multe bunuri, respectiv (ii) disponibilitatea de mai mul i bani reduc timpul necesar pentru a ob ine o anumit cantitate de bunuri. Correia i Teles au demonstrat c func ia este omogen de orice grad.


• Impozitarea capitalului este o tem central în Þ nan ele publice. ModiÞ carea caracteristicilor în decursul timpului a impozit rii optime în contextul macroeconomic inter-temporal a fost studiat/aprofundat de c tre Chamley (1985, 1986), care a utilizat un model simpliÞ cat al agentului reprezentativ, punând accent pe impozitarea direct a capitalului i a for ei de munc , si totodat a omis posibilitatea de convertire a bun st rii in capital suplimentar. În acest context, agentul reprezentativ (individ sau Þ rm ) este direct interesat s optimizeze ecua ia: (19) cu condi iile ini iale , iar condi ia de optimalitate este descris de:

Prin transform ri ajungem la func ia de utilitate:

cea care exprim utilitate optim a agentului din punctul de vedere al utilit ii marginale i a ratei de salariu (dup impozite si taxe). Problema impozit rii optime ar trebui s aib în vedere maximizarea bun st rii agentului reprezentativ, ceea ce se supune (i) unor constrângeri privind resursele economiei, (ii) constângerile bugetare ale guvernului i (iii) condi iile de optimalitate ale agentului reprezentativ.

, (20)

S consider m multiplicatorul , care este asociat cu restric ia de ne-negativitate ; astfel, dac restric ia este îndeplinit . În momentul zero, valoarea marginal a utilit ii consumatorului nu are restric ii, Atkinson i Stern (1974) arat c , deci .Prin urmare, la început capitalul trebuie impozitat la rata fezabil maxim

. Este de la sine în eles c condi ia nu poate Þ men inut la nesfâr it, altfel utilitatea marginal a consumului ar cre te la nesfâr it. Chamley a ar tat c restric ia este îndeplinit în totdeauna atunci când i a concluzionat dou regimuri de impozitare pentru capital - capitalul trebuie impozitat la rata maxim sau deloc.


Pe de alt parte, Lucas (1990) sus ine c impozitarea capitalului trebuie distribuit în timp în mod similar cu alte bunuri, astfel încât taxarea s reß ecte gradul de consum. Având în vedere c impozitarea capitalului nou are drept implica ie impozitarea consumului viitor la o rat mai mare, acest lucru duce la concluzia c impozitarea nu este de dorit pe termen lung. Astfel, la început, atunci când capitalul este dobândit, acesta trebuie impozitat la rata maxim , îns în timp impozitarea trebuie redus , eventual chiar eliminat . O alt abordare a impozit rii optime este prezentat de c tre Judd (1985), prin care sunt lua i în considera ie dou tipuri de consumatori – lucr tori i investitori. Dac impozitarea muncii i a capitalului poate Þ f cut în mod

diferit, rezult c , în situatia de echilibru stabil, impozitarea capitalului ajunge la zero. Acest lucru este valabil i în cazul limit pentru cele dou categorii de consumatori – muncitorii nu de in capital, iar investitorii nu presteaz munc . • Concluziile de pân acum s-au referit la faptul c pe termen lung, impozitarea capitalului trebuie s tind c tre zero, este o condi ie foarte strict . În cazul economiilor în dezvoltare/emergente <growing> mai trebuie s lu m în calcul alte dou aspecte; primul se refer la congestionare, iar cel de-al doilea la faptul c cheltuielile guvernului sunt limitate la dimensiunea economiei. S presupunem c agentul reprezentativ de ine o unitate de produc ie care deruleaz contracte cu guvernul beneÞ ciind de contracte pentru bunuri publice notat cu , unde este un parametru care descrie gradul relativ de congestiune asociat bunului public, iar k capitalul individual al Þ rmei, iar capitalul agreat în economie. Congestionarea apare atunci când utilizarea capitalului agregat dep e te utilizarea capitalului individual. Astfel, pentru , avem cazul în care serviciile primite de Þ rm de la guvern sunt constante i sunt la nivel G, indiferent de gradul de utilizare a capitalului. Bunul G poate Þ considerat c este disponibil tuturor indivizilor, iar în acest caz nu vorbim de congestionare. La extrema cealalt avem , caz în care doar dac G cre te propor ional cu rata de cre tere a capitalului agreat , serviciile disponibile pentru Þ rma respectiv pot r mâne constante. Acest caz este denumit congestionare relativ . Cazul , poate Þ considerat de congestionare extrem , în care G trebuie s creasc mult mai rapid decât economia, astfel ca s poat s men in nivelul serviciilor constante. Condi ia de echilibru ferm este descris prin:


Din cele de mai sus putem concluziona, c prin cre terea capitalului propriu k, în condi iile în care am considerat c r mâne constant, agentul se a teapt s poat beneÞ cia de o cot mai mare de bunuri publice. Condi ia de optimalitate pe termen lung, în care agentul este impozita cu rata , poate Þ descris prin:

(21)

Astfel putem concluziona c cazul se reduce la cel Camley-Judd prezentat anterior, prin care pe termen lung capitalul nu trebuie impozitat. Pe de alt parte, congestionarea relativ induce un stimulent pentru întreprinz tor s creasc propriul capital, fapt prin care creeaz altora congestionare – o externalitate, care ne îndeam s consider m impozitarea capitalului pe termen lung ca Þ ind corect . S lu m în considere cazul în care cheltuielile guvernului nu sunt legate de economie sau alt variant , în care economia este în cre tere. Aceasta este , unde g este considerat constant. Aceasta înseamn c dimensiunea guvernului cre te propor ional cu cre terea economiei. În aceast situa ie, condi ia de optimalitate pe termen lung a guvernului poate Þ descris prin:

(22) Oricum, agentul reprezentativ tinde s nu recunoasc aceast leg tur i va continua s creasc capitalul, ceea ce va genera o externalitate. În acest

caz, pentru a corecta situa ia se impune introducerea unui impozit , ceea ce face ca, în situa ia de echilibru stabil pe termen lung, impozitarea capitalului s nu Þ e zero. • Pân acum am avut în vedere cazul în care guvernele î i aleg anumite politici de impozitare a capitalului considerate optime la momentul in ial zero i ulterior, î i respect cele decise. Îns , în decursul timpului, în derulerea implement rii politicilor respective este nevoit s fac ajust ri/adapt ri la condi iile actuale de pia . În acest caz, putem considera c aceast nou decizie seteaz un nou moment ini ial zero de unde începe un nou ciclu de implementare. Noua traiectorie de implementare a politicilor de impozitare optim a capitalului, îns cu o probabilitate mare, difer de cea ini ial , astfel putem considera c este inconsistent temporal. În decursul timpului s-au f cut multe studii i cercet ri pe tema inconsisten ei temporale, precum i în elaborarea de modele de optimizare care au în centrul aten iei agen i orienta i spre viitor; dintre primii amintim pe Kydland i Prescott (1977). În general, putem spune c o politic economic


este inconsistent în timp, atunci când deciziile luate ulterior, dar care sunt pe traiectoria de optimalitate, determin o evolu ie care nu mai poate Þ considerat optim în viitor (de i nu s-au modiÞ cat semniÞ cativ condi iile speciÞ ce). Din punctul de vedere al impozit rii optime a capitalului pân acum am ar tat c impozitarea este Þ x pe termen scurt i variabil pe termen lung, îns în timp guvernele nu prea doresc s fac schimb ri în acest sens. Aceast problem poate Þ analizat pe baza unui model temporal cu dou perioade distince, plecând de la cele descrise de c tre Fischer (1980), precum i Kydland i Prescott (1977, 1980). Consider m dou perioade de timp 1, i 2 în care agentul reprezentativ are capitalul initial k1, consum în aceste perioade c1 i c2, i lucreaz /produce numai în perioada a 2-a cu l2. În acest caz, utilitatea agentului poate Þ descris prin:

(23)

unde este un factor de discount, este disponibilul de for de munc în perioada 2, iar reprezint cheltuielile guvernului în perioada 2 (se presupune c în perioada 1 nu s-a cheltuit). Astfel, putem c pentru cele dou perioade avem: (24)

unde am notat cu a valoarea marginal a muncii (Þ ind constant în timp), iar cu b valoarea marginal de generare a capitalului (tot constant ). • Guvernele sunt interesate de maximizarea bun st rii agentului, iar în acest scop trebuie s determine politicile optime alegând anumite variabile, în cazul nostru acestea sunt: , iar condi ia de optim poate Þ descris prin

(25)

Aceast solu ie este consistent în timp si reprezint cea mai bun posibil solu ie pe care guvernul are la dispozi ie la începutul perioadei a doua de timp.


• În continuare avem în vedere aspectul prin care presupunem c guvernul îsi Þ nan eaz cheltuielile prin impunerea de taxe/impozite, astfel agentul reprezentativ va tinde c tre optimizare, având urm toarele restric ii/constângeri:

(26)

unde este rata de impozit pe munc , iar R2 este rata de impozitare a rentabilit ii capitalului. În aceast situa ie, problema guvernului se reduce la alegerea lui

i a cheltuielilor , astfel încât s maximizeze bun starea agentului, dar inând cont de limit rile bugetare.

(27) Pentru a putea realiza aceast optimizare, guvernul trebuie s aß e care sunt a tept rile agentului, iar în caz ideal, putem considera c agentul întotdeauna poate s prevad cu exactitate comportamentul guvernului. Atfel, optimizarea ne conduce la: (28) ceea ce înseamn , c pentru guvern, optimul înseamn s aduc la acela i nivel utilitatea marginal a cheltuielilor guvernamentale cu cele ale cheltuielilor private. • Putem spune c rata de impozitare nu este consistent în timp deoarece, în cea de a doua perioad , nivelul de impozitare ales ca Þ ind optim în prima perioad nu mai este unul optim. Astfel, agentul alege alte valori c2, l2 care s îi maximizeze utilitatea: Considerând i în acest caz c i sunt date, condi ia de optimalitate poate Þ descris ca:

De aici putem concluziona, c guvernul trebuie s m reasc veniturile prin cre terea impozit rii capitalului, s lase munca neimpozitat , ca s contracareze efectele secundare datorate reducerii echilibrului for ei de munc . Inconsisten a temporar rezult din faptul c guvernele nu dispun de taxe/impozite nondistorsionare.


• Solu ia consistent în timp poate Þ ob inut prin utilizarea principiilor de optimalitate ale Program rii dinamice, ceea ce înseamn c modelarea începe în perioada 2 si rezolvarea se face în sens invers <backwards> înspre perioada 1. Atât guvernul cât i agentul tind s ajung la optim în perioada a 2-a, ne conduce la solu ia similar cu cel ob inut anterior, c munca nu trebuie taxat , iar capitalul da. Dac ne uit m la perioada 1, cunoscând comportamentele din perioada 2, agentul va calcula optimul pentru consum i economisire.

(29)

Astfel, agentul tinde s maximizeze utilitatea în perioada 1, prin: unde i sunt date.

Concluzii În acest studiu, autorii au urm rit s analizeze principalele politici monetare, precum i m surile Þ scale optime. Exemplul Fischer cu cele dou -perioade prezint cel mai simplu mod de a trata problema inconsisten ei temporale. Alte cazuri de inconsisten temporar pot Þ studiate având în vedere c pe de o parte, guvernele nu prea respect deciziile luate de predecesorii lor sau, pe de alt parte, nu ac ioneaz în interesul agentului reprezentativ. Problema inconsisten ei temporale a generat o provocare pentru cei care studiaz politicile optime i a fost subiectul multor cercet ri începând cu anul 1980. Una din direc iile de cercetare se concentreaz pe solu ia de angajament i presupune ca actualul guvern poate s conving cele care le urmeaz s le respecte decizia luat . De fapt, în realitate nu se întâmpl a a, iar Agentul cunoa te din experien c un nou guvern va supralicita i va tinde s modiÞ ce deciziile luate de actuala guvernare, face ca din punctul de vedere al Agentului deciziile s nu Þ e credibile. Pe de alt parte, guvernul tie c înc lcarea în mod repetat ale promisiunilor va eroda reputa ia guvernului i va genera costuri suplimentare, iar modul de reac ie al Agentului este o chestiune important pentru guvern. Problema echilibrului de reputa ie a fost studiat de mai mul i autori printre care putem men iona Lucas si Stokey (1983), Persson, Persson i Svensson (1987). Al i autori au extins solu ia de programare dinamic utilizat în exemplul lui Fischer cu cele dou -perioade la intervale pân la inÞ nit, caz în care solutiile inverse „backwards” nu reß ect corect fenomenul.


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ASPECTS OF OPTIMAL MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES

Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD ([email protected])

Bucharest University of Economic Studies / „Artifex” University of BucharestProf. univ. dr. Mihai P UNIC PhD ([email protected])

Bucharest University of Economic StudiesGyorgy BODO PhD Student ([email protected])

Bucharest University of Economic StudiesMaria MIREA Student ([email protected])


Abstract This article looks at a detailed approach to optimal government policies, given the implications for monetary policy and Þ scal policy. The analysis has three distinct stages. In the Þ rst phase of analysis / modeling, we abstain from physical capital, in which case the economy tends towards a steady state, and optimal government policy can be analyzed in static (pure) state. In the second phase, we introduce the capital (variable) notion, thus reintroducing the dynamics into the analysis model. Finally, we will look at some aspects of the timeliness of optimal policies and the continuity of governmental policy (monetary and Þ scal) decisions. Keywords: monetary policies, tax policies, consumption, welfare, macroeconomic Balance JEL ClassiÞ cation: E52, E62

Introduction An important role for governments is to implement policies that lead to goals. Assuming governments are willing and guiding their policies towards the well-being of the citizens they represent, then policies can be evaluated through the welfare of representative agents (bringing together both individuals and companies). These issues were introduced in the literature on macroeconomic studies under the title of „Economic Policy Theory” which were originally dealt with by Timberger (1952) and Teil (1958) followed by Turnovsky (1977), Atkinson and Stiglitz (1980), and and others. In this article, we will try to have a detailed approach to optimal government policies, focusing both on monetary policy and Þ scal policy, but also on the compromise between them. Our approach has three distinct stages. Thus, in the Þ rst phase, we abstain from physical capital, in which case the dynamics of the economy decreases (degenerates) and the economy is in a steady state. This


approach has the advantage that optimal government policy can be analyzed in a static (pure) state, which allows us to use the traditional approach to public Þ nances by using the Ramsey taxing method. In the second phase, we introduce the physical capital variable (variable), by which we reintroduce the dynamics in the previously considered equilibrium state. Although the analysis becomes more complicated, we can still draw conclusions on some of its main points. Finally, we will consider studying aspects of time consistency of optimal policy and drawing conclusions.

Literature review Alfaro and Kanczuk (2009) develops on the relationship between optimal reserve management and sovereign debt. Angelini, Neri and Panetta (2014) analyze the link between capital requirements and monetary policy, Angeloni and Faia (2013) focus on capital regulation and monetary policy in the particular case of banks with a fragile situation. Anghel, Anghelache, Samson and Stoica (2016) study the evolution of the consumer price index of the population, under the impact of certain Þ scal, monetary policy measures. Mian, Rao and SuÞ (2013) describe the correlation between household balance and consumption. Anghel (2015) is a reference paper in the Þ eld of Þ nancial and monetary analyzes, Anghelache, Anghel and Popovici (2016) presents a model dedicated to Þ nancial and monetary analyzes. Kaplan and Violante (2014) highlight a model dedicated to studying the consumption indicators response to incentive-type Þ scal policies. Dell’Ariccia, Igan and Laeven (2012) are concerned with the credit standards associated with subprime mortgages. Farhi and Werning (2016) develops a theory of macro-prudential policies. Anghel (2015) addresses the money market, indicators and associated policies. Anghelache and Manole (2016) highlight the application of the regression model in the study of interdependence between money market indicators. Anghelache, Anghel, Manole, Lilea (2016), Anghelache (2011) are fundamental works in economic and Þ nancial modeling. Halac and Yared (2014) are concerned about the impact of shocks on tax rules. Bassetto and Messer (2013) assess the tax consequences of interest earned on reserves. Tracy and Wright (2016) study the impact of reÞ nancing on expected losses associated with lending. Anghelache, Anghelache, Anghel, Ni , Sacala (2016) propose and describe a model for the analysis of Þ nancial investments, correlated with budget execution, in the case of Romania. Azzimonti, Battaglini and Coate (2016) assess the costs and beneÞ ts of balanced budget rules. Anghelache, Anghelache and Anghel (2015,2014), Anghelache, Manole and Anghel (2013) analyzed from a multiple point of view the current Þ nancial and monetary situation of the Romanian economy and the evolution of the studied indicators. Gabaix and Maggiori (2015) are


concerned about the evolution of liquidity and international exchange rates of schib. Gertler and Karadi (2011) develop a model for special monetary policies. Woodford (2013) is concerned with the macroeconomic analysis in the context of excluding the rational expectations hypothesis. Rubio (2011) is concerned with the study of Þ xed or variable interest mortgage instruments and their correlation with economic cycles and monetary policies.

Research methodology and data • The model on which we rely is a simpliÞ ed model of the one developed by Turnovsky and Brock (1980), in which for simplicity, on the one hand, we have abstraction from physical capital, and on the other hand we have merged the behavior of companies and individuals in the so-called Representative agent who has the ability to make perfect predictions. This representative agent has the possibility to decide on its own level of consumption (c), access to labor (l), real money availability (m), and possession of government securities (b) so as to maximize intertemporal utility: The budget constraint of the representative agent is expressed by: (1) On the other hand, the other player in the economy, the government, is considering its own budget constraints, which can be expressed by: (2) where: c = actual consumption; g = real government spending; m = the real balance of money; M = the nominal balance of money; b = real stock of government securities; B = nominal stock of government securities; l = labor force available; P = price level; p = inß ation rate; r = nominal interest rate; = proÞ t tax rate; T = real ß at tax.

We assume that for certain given values of c, g and l, the marginal utility of the balance of money satisÞ es the condition: From the above we can conclude that when the agent’s real estate possession is lower than the satiety level, then the marginal utility of the


money possession is positive, and when it is higher, the cost of holding money is higher Than the beneÞ ts, in which case the net margin of the holding of money becomes negative. Making the difference between (1) and (2) results in the market condition of the aggregate product: (3) In general, the government has at its disposal Þ ve instruments (policies): M, B, , T and g, of which any four variables are independent, but they can vary relatively arbitrarily over time. Given the equilibrium of the model, optimal policies become stationary in time, leading to the idea that we can assume that the government allows for the money supply to increase at Þ xed rate . Thus, real monetary growth is expressed by: (4) which can be expressed by the accumulation rate of government securities present in the form of: (5)

• Macroeconomic equilibrium can be described by the equations:

(6)

In the absence of capital accumulation, we have to show that the dynamics of the system decreases (degenerates) and tends towards a steady state of balance. The fact that the dynamics of the macroeconomic equilibrium decreases can be noticed by the fact that the utility function is separable by summing up to m, and solving leads to the situation in which the solution for c, l si that are constant over time In this case, we can conclude that the real interest rate can be expressed by r - p = b, from which it follows that the inß ation rate is of the form: (7) In the absence of capital accumulation we can show that the dynamics degenerate and the system always reaches a steady state which leads to the solution of the equations of the form:


(8) In this situation we can approximate the evolution of the real volume of manes around the balance by:

Given c and l constants, equation (5) can be solved easily and we Þ nd the solution in which for the equilibrium situation we need to fulÞ ll the condition:

(9)

Which is, in fact, the government’s budget inter-temporal constraint, stating that the budget deÞ cit in the real interest condition must be zero.Thus, the predicted equilibrium can be described by the equations:

(10)

All these equations indicate that if there is no dynamic there is no accumulation of titles or money, and the economy is Þ rmly in balance. In fact, any shock in the system will generate an instantaneous leap in prices that will cause the real money balance to grow to reach a new stage of equilibrium described by (8). The Þ ve equations describing the stationary solution for c, l, m, and one of the instruments of politics , T, or g. In other words, three of the policy parameters can be chosen arbitrarily, while the remaining one adapts to SatisÞ es the state of equilibrium. Macroeconomic equilibrium highlights two key aspects of monetary policy in this rational intertemporal context, namely: - First, if the utility function is separable in additive, on the one hand in c and l and on the other in m, it is clear that the states of equilibrium for consumption, labor and output and can be considered as independent of mnetary policies. Thus, monetary policies have an impact on the system only


through the real money balance and the substitution rate between consumption and labor; - Second, the fact that there must be some form of taxation for a certain level of monetary growth given to maintain steady state, emphasizes that there is a constraint / interdependence between monetary and Þ scal policies. In the following we will analyze the situations where where the monetary growth rate is chosen to optimize the welfare of the population / agent, taking into account two cases: (1) either by matching a ß at-rate tax T on the one hand, respectively by the distortion charge pe de alt parte, caz care poate Þ considerat ca Þ in o m sur de potrivire/ajustare Þ scal . • Let us consider the case in which the economy is stationary and the conditions that characterize the optimal choices of government policies. We suppose the government seeks to Þ nd policies that maximize the inter-emporal wealth of the representative agent, subject to balance constraints. Considering that everything is stationary, this optimization can be accomplished by maximizing the instantaneous utility function, which is subject to static constraints. The problem can be described either (1) on the one hand by expressing the optimized utility of the consumer as an indirect function to the usefulness of the terms of the government policy variables, followed by optimization or (2) by maximizing the following Lagrangean expression:

We can present optimality from two perspectives. The Þ rst option considers the optimality from the point of view of the private sector variables.

(11)

The second approach is associated with government policy variables.


(12)

• Optimal monetary growth has been analyzed in the literature under various aspects and perspectives. In the beginning, authors such as Bailey (1956) and Friedman (1971) analyzed the phenomenon from the perspective of maximizing government revenue through tax / inß ation rates and showed that optimal monetary growth depends on the elasticity of interest rates over money demand. Tobin (1968) has focused on monetary growth from the perspective of maximizing consumption, and has shown that this involves driving the economy under the gold-money golden rule. But the most important is Bailey’s (1956) and Friedman (1969) approach to optimal monetary growth by maximizing utility. Hence the most important proposal known as Friedman’s „total liquidity” rule, which states that the optimal monetary growth rate can be achieved by contracting the provision of money at a rate equal to the consumer’s preferential time. • To begin with, we consider the case where the government chooses to maintain balance by means of a ß at-rate tax with T. In this case, the optimality condition leads to i . For the Þ rst condition we can have either either . For simplicity, we consider this latter value and it follows that equilibrium is reduced to the set of equations:

(13)


Solving the above equations results in the optimal values for , and these are the data we can determine the value of the

lump sum T that is needed to keep the balance.

(14)

where: .

The optimal rate of monetary growth can be described by:

(15)

From this relationship we can see that the optimal monetary growth rate is identical to Friedman’s famous liquidity rule: or equivalent to i = 0, Only if one of the conditions is fulÞ lled: - if , or - if the marginal rate of replacement of labor consumption is independent of the total amount of money. In the Þ rst case, there is no charge that distorts the choice between consumption and relaxation, and in the second case, since the utility function is separable in m by adding <additivelly>, the choice between consumption and relaxation has no effect on the whole Their being constant). • Next, we will look at the case where the authorities choose to maintain the balance by adjusting the tax rate, , instead of ß at-rate taxation. This approach was originally described by Phelps (1973), who showed that there is a tendency towards optimal policies where the distortion created by the tax / tax is offset by the distortion in the inß ation rate. In this case, the relationship of optimality is described by:

(16)


In order to achieve a compromise / simpliÞ cation, it is convenient to assume that utility is separable Þ rst summation in m, as we considered in the case of ß at-rate taxation . This approach in which simpliÞ es the modeling and arrives:

Thus, by solving the above equations we obtain:

where:

• So far we have assumed that government spending is constant / Þ xed. Now let’s assume that the government decides the level of spending, g, in correlation with a monetary growth rate . Next, suppose that he uses ß at tax as an adaptation method to reach steady state of stability (as we have seen before ) the marginal condition is reduced to: Therefore, removing from results

Taking deÞ ned above, the optimal condition of government budget expenditures results from the form of:

(17)

This condition may in fact be interpreted as the marginal utility of government spending being equal to the marginal utility of private consumption. If the utility function is separable by summing in m, then the optimum monetary growth rate is constant, given a level of budget expenditure. If we consider that the government chooses an optimal tax rate in combination with a monetary growth rate and expenditure level g it follows that policy optimality can be summed up:


(18)

In this optimal macroeconomic policy, the tax is considered zero, which means eliminating the source that causes distortion, according to the relationship:

• Since it was developed by Friedman (1969), the theory of optimal monetary growth has been the subject of ongoing research. Three signiÞ cant approaches can be structured in the literature, which were synthesized by Chari and Kehoe (1999). The Þ rst approach introduces the notion of money into the utility function. Chari and Kehoe provide a general characterization of the robustness of Friedman’s rules. They consider the case where preferences are not affected by satiety on the real money balance, but who is still <bounded> is optimal if the utility condition , where w(.) is homothetic.. The second approach refers to the cash-in-advance model where there is money for product and credit for product .Chari and Kehoe have shown that the Friedman model is optimal if the utility function is

where w(.) is also homothetic. The third approach has been reviewed by several authors and refers to the well-known „shopping-time” economy. Kimbrough (1986), Faig (1988), Guidotti and Vegh (1993) Correia and Teles (1996) consider money as an intermediary good where is the time to obtain money units, A real m cash balance. We can see that (i) for a given amount of money it takes longer to get more goods, respectively (ii) the availability of more money reduces the time needed to get a certain amount of goods. Correia and Teles have demonstrated that the function (c, m) is homogeneous of any degree • Capital taxation is a central theme in public Þ nances. Changing characteristics over time of optimal taxation in the inter-temporal macroeconomic context has been studied / deepened by Chamley (1985, 1986), which used a simpliÞ ed model of the representative agent, focusing on


direct taxation of capital and labor, and has also failed to convert welfare into additional capital. In this context, the representative agent (individual or Þ rm) is directly interested in optimizing the equation: (19) with the initial conditions , and the condition of optimality is described by:

Through transformations we reach the utility function: The one that expresses the agent’s optimal utility in terms of marginal utility and salary (after taxes and fees). The optimal taxation issue should consider maximizing the welfare of the representative agent, which is subject to (i) constraints on the resources of the economy, (ii) government budgetary constraints, and (iii) the optimal conditions of the representative agent.

, (20)

We consider the multiplie , which is associated with the

non-negativity restriction ; thus, if the , restriction is fulÞ lled.. At zero, the marginal value of consumer utility has no restrictions, Atkinson and Stern (1974) show that , so . Therefore, at Þ rst the capital must be taxed at the maximum feasible rate

. It is understood that the condition can not be kept indeÞ nitely, otherwise the marginal utility of consumption would increase indeÞ nitely. Chamley pointed out that the restriction is always fulÞ lled when t > T and has concluded two tax regimes for capital - capital must be taxed at the maximum or none. On the other hand, Lucas (1990) argues that capital taxation should be distributed over time in a similar way to other goods so that the taxation reß ects the degree of consumption. Since taxation of new capital has the effect


of taxing future consumption at a higher rate, this leads to the conclusion that taxation is not desirable in the long term. Thus, at Þ rst, when capital is acquired, it must be taxed at the maximum rate, but over time the taxation must be reduced, eventually even eliminated. Another approach to optimal taxation is presented by Judd (1985), which takes into account two types of consumers - workers and investors. If taxation of labor and capital can be made differently, it appears that, in the steady state of balance, capital taxation reaches zero. This is also true in the case of the limit for the two categories of consumers - workers do not have capital and investors do not work. • Conclusions so far have referred to the fact that in the long run, capital taxation must be zero, it is a very strict condition. In the case of growth / emerging economies, we need to take into account two other issues; the Þ rst concerns congestion, and the second is that government spending is limited to the size of the economy. Let us assume that the representative agent has a production unit that runs contracts with the government beneÞ ting from public goods contracts denoted by , where is a parameter describing The relative degree of congestion associated with the public good, and k the individual capital of the Þ rm, and the capital agreed in the economy. Congestion occurs when the use of aggregate capital exceeds the use of individual capital. Thus, for , we have the case in which the services received by the government from the government are constant and are at G level, regardless of the degree of capital use. Good G can be considered to be available to all individuals, and in this case we are not talking about congestion. At the other extreme we have = 0, in which case only if G increases in proportion to the agreed capital growth rate , the services available for that company may remain constant. This case is called relative congestion. The case , can be considered extreme congestion, where G needs to grow much faster than the economy, so that it can maintain the level of constant services. The Þ rm equilibrium condition is described by:

From the above we can conclude that by increasing the capital k, assuming that remains constant, the agent expects to be able to beneÞ t from a larger share of public goods. The condition of long-term optimality, where the agent is taxed at rate , can be described by:

(21)


Thus we can conclude that the case = 1 is reduced to the Camley-Judd presented above, by which long-term capital must not be taxed. On the other hand, relative congestion induces an incentive for the entrepreneur to increase its own capital, which creates congestion for others - an externality, which requires us to consider long-term capital taxation as correct. We take into account the fact that the government’s expenditures are not economy-related or other, where the economy is growing. This is

, where g is considered constant. This means that the size of the government increases in proportion to the growth of the economy. In this situation, the government’s long-term optimal condition can be described by:

(22) However, the representative agent tends not to recognize this link and will continue to increase capital, which will generate an externality. In this case, in order to correct the situation, it is necessary to introduce a tax = g, which means that in the long-term stable equilibrium the capital taxation is not zero. • Until now, we have been considering whether governments are choosing certain capital-tax policies that are considered optimal at the time of zero, and then respect their decisions. However, in the course of implementing these policies, it is necessary to make adjustments / adaptations to current market conditions. In this case, we can assume that this new decision sets a new zero start time from where a new implementation cycle begins. The new trajectory of implementing optimal capital taxation policies, but with a high probability, differs from the initial one, so we may consider it temporally inconsistent. Over time, many studies and research have been done on temporal inconsistency, as well as in the development of optimization models focusing on forward-looking agents; Among the Þ rst we mention Kydland and Prescott (1977). In general, we can say that an economic policy is inconsistent over time, when decisions taken later, but which are on the optimal trajectory, determine an evolution that can no longer be considered optimal in the future (although the speciÞ c conditions have not changed signiÞ cantly ). From the point of view of optimal capital taxation so far, we have shown that taxation is Þ xed in the short term and variable in the long run, but governments are unwilling to make any changes in this regard. This problem can be analyzed based on a time pattern with two distant periods, starting from those described by Fischer (1980), and Kydland and Prescott (1977, 1980). We consider two time periods 1, and 2 where the


representative agent has the initial capital k1, consumes during these periods c1 and c2, and works / produces only during the 2nd period with l2. In this case, the utility of the agent can be described by:

(23)

where is a discount factor, is the labor force available in period 2, and represents government expenditures during period 2 (it is assumed that during the period 1 was not spent). Thus, we can for the two periods we have: (24)

where we denote with a the marginal value of labor (constant over time), and with b the marginal value of capital generation (constant). • Governments are interested in maximizing agent welfare, and to this end they must determine optimal policies by choosing certain variables, in our case they are ,, and the optimum condition can be described by:

(25)

This solution is consistent over time and is the best possible solution the government has at its disposal at the beginning of the second period of time. • In the following we take into account the assumption that the government Þ nances its expenses by imposing taxes / taxes so the representative agent will tend towards optimization with the following restrictions / constraints:

(26)

where is the labor tax rate, and R2 is the rate of tax on capital return. In this situation, the government’s problem is reduced to the choice of

and the expenses so as to maximize the welfare of the agent, but taking into account the budgetary limitations.


(27) In order to achieve this optimization, the government needs to Þ nd out what the agent’s expectations are, and in the ideal case, we can assume that the agent can always accurately predict the behavior of the government. Thus, optimization leads us to: (28) which means that for the government, the optimal means to bring to the same level the marginal utility of government expenditures with those of private spending. • We can say that the tax rate is not consistent over time because in the second period, the tax level chosen as optimal in the Þ rst period is no longer an optimal one. Thus, the agent chooses other values c2, l2 to maximize its usefulness:

Considering that in this case that and are given, the condition of optimality can be described as:

Hence, we can conclude that the government needs to increase its revenue by increasing capital taxes, leaving undeclared work to counteract the side-effects due to the reduction in the balance of the labor force. Temporary inconsistency arises from the fact that governments have no non-dictatorial taxes / dues. • The consistent solution over time can be obtained by using the optimal principles of Dynamic Programming, which means that modeling begins in the period 2 and resolves backwards over the period 1. Both the government and the agent tend to get the best in The second period leads us to the solution similar to the one previously obtained, that work should not be taxed, and the capital does. If we look at period 1, knowing the behaviors of period 2, the agent will calculate the optimum for consumption and saving.

(29)

Thus, the agent tends to maximize utility during period 1 through: where i are given.


Conclusion In this study, the authors sought to analyze the main monetary policies as well as optimal Þ scal measures. The Fischer example with the two periods presents the easiest way to deal with the problem of temporal inconsistency. Other instances of temporary inconsistency can be studied, given that, on the one hand, the governments do not respect the decisions taken by their predecessors or, on the other hand, do not act in the interest of the representative agent. The problem of temporal inconsistency has generated a challenge for those who study optimal policies and has been the subject of many research since 1980. One of the research directions focuses on the commitment solution and assumes that the current government can convince those who are to follow their decision. Actually, in fact, this is not the case, and the Agent knows from experience that a new government will be overwhelmed and will tend to modify the decisions taken by the current government, makes the decisions from the Agent’s point of view not to be credible. On the other hand, the government knows that repeated breaches of promises will erode the government’s reputation and generate additional costs, and the agent’s response is an important issue for the government. The problem of reputation balance has been studied by several authors, among whom we can mention Lucas and Stokey (1983), Persson, Persson and Svensson (1987). Other authors have extended the dynamic programming solution used in Fischer’s example with the two-period intervals to inÞ nity, in which case the backwards solutions do not correctly reß ect the phenomenon.

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Poten ialul economic al investi iilor în domeniul Cercet rii – Dezvolt rii – Inov rii pentru

accelerarea cre terii PIB în România

Prof. univ. dr. Alexandru MANOLE ([email protected])

Universitatea „Artifex” din Bucure tiAsist. univ. dr. Diana Valentina DUMITRESCU ([email protected])

Universitatea „Artifex”, Bucure ti / Academia de Studii Economice, Bucure ti dr. Daniel Ioan DUMITRESCU ([email protected])

Abstract Acest articol include o analiza a domeniului de Cercetare – Dezvoltare – Inovare la nivelul Romaniei. Studiul se apleaca asupra identiÞ carii stadiului actual al CDI in tara noastra comparativ cu celelalte 27 de state membre ale Uniunii Europene. In contextul Strategiei Europa 2020, cercetarea de fata este cu atat mai importanta, cu cat Romania si-a asumat anumite obligatii de intensiÞ care a suportului Þ nanciar in domeniul CDI, astfel incat, la sfarsitul Cadrului Financiar Multianual 2014 – 2020, 1% din PIB-ul national sa Þ e alocat Cercetarii – Dezvoltarii – Inovarii. Cuvinte cheie: cercetare, dezvoltare, inovare, PIB, Europa

Introducere În România, politica de cercetare – dezvoltare în domeniul tehnologic i al inov rii s-a materializat prin aprobarea unei strategii române ti pentru

CDI pentru perioada 2014 – 2020, care s eviden ieze importan a pe care acest domeniu îl poate avea pentru cre terea competitivit ii economice în contextul politicilor Europene în domeniu. Astfel i România a luat în calcul la redactarea acestui document de priorit ile Uniunii Europene prezentate în cadrul strategiei Europa 2020, a ini iativei Europa – O Uniune a inov rii, i a celui mai important program de cercetare – dezvoltare al Uniunii Europene – Horizon 2020. Priorit ile Strategiei Europa 2020 înseamn o cre tere care prezint urm toarele caracteristici: inteligent , durabil i favorabil incluziunii, iar unul dintre cele mai relevante obiective ale strategieu Europene în domeniul CDI este ca pân în anul 2020, 3% din PIB-ul UE s Þ e alocat investi iilor CDI.

Literature review Sandu (2014) analizeaz caracteristicile pie ei rezultatelor cercet rii-dezvolt rii în România. Avram, Avram i Avram (2014) studiaz rolul


cheltuielilor R&D în procesul de cre tere economic . P unic , Gheorghiu, Curaj i Holeab (2009) prezint o prognoz asupra restructur rii sistemelor R&D. Anghelache i Anghel (2016) este o lucrare de referin în econometrie. Nastase i Badea (2015) dezvolt pe tema Þ nan rii cercet rii tiin iÞ ce în România. Goschin (2014) evalueaz activit ile R&D ca factor determinant al cre terii economice regionale în România. Anghelache i Anghel (2015) analizeaz impactul investi iilor str ine directe, care includ investi ii în R&D, asupra cre terii economice a României. Anghelache et.al. (2012) se preocup de statisticile pe termen scurt utilizate în practic . Zaman i Georgescu (2014) descriu impactul atragerii de fonduri europene asupra economiei na ionale a României, Dobre 2014) dezvolt pe o tem similar . Piroi i Paunica (2015) evalueaz impactul favorabil al tehnologiei asupra deÞ citului bugetar al României. Anghelache, Manole i Anghel (2014) studiaz evolu ia PIB în România. Anghelache, Manole, Anghel i Diaconu (2016) prezint cele mai importante corela ii dintre variabilele macroeconomice. Popescu, Predescu i Oancea-Negescu (2014) trec în revist factorii economici ai dezvolt rii

viitoare a României.

Metodologia cercet rii i date Strategia Na ional de Cercetare Dezvoltare i Inovare – SNCDI, s-a construit pornind de la un studiu privind pia a de CDI na ional , studiu Þ nan at printr-un contract cu JASPERS. Acest studiu a evoluat apoi prin eviden ierea sectoarelor economice cu poten ial în domeniu. Aceast strategie va putea Þ aplicat printr-o serie de instrumente subordonate care includ i programe opera ionale în vigoare în perioada 2014 – 2020. Astfel, domeniul CDI va Þ atins prin POR, POCU, PNDR, dar mai ales prin Programul Opera ional Competitivitate. PO Competitivitate (Þ nan at prin FEDR) sus ine cre terea inteligent , promovarea economiei bazate pe cunoa tere i inovare, prin investi ii în: 1.Consolidarea cercet rii, dezvolt rii tehnologice i Inov rii; 2.Sporirea utiliz rii, calit ii i accesului la tehnologiile informa iei i comunica iilor. Alocarile Þ nanciare Programul Opera ional Competitivitate în valoare de 1,33 mld. Euro se vor realiza pentru Axa Prioritar 1 - Cercetare, dezvoltare tehnologic i inovare (CDI) în sprijinul competitivit ii economice i dezvolt rii afacerilor - 797.872.340 euro (60% din POC) i pentru Axa Prioritar 2 - Tehnologia Informa iei i Comunica iilor (TIC) pentru o economie digital competitive - 531.914.894 euro (40% din POC). Ca i elemente de noutate 2014 – 2020 fata de 2007 – 2013 observ m c investi iile în CDI vor Þ realizate numai în leg tur cu ariile identiÞ cate în strategia na ional de CDI ca Þ ind de ”specializare inteligent ” (smart


specialization) i vor Þ sprijinite parteneriatele între întreprinderi i institu ii de cercetare în scopul cre terii transferului de cuno tin e, tehnologie i personal cu competen e CDI pentru dezvoltarea de produse i procese bazate pe CDI i pe cererea pie ei. De asemenea, investi iile TIC vor Þ orientate inclusiv c tre îmbun t irea mediului digital de asigurare a serviciile publice pentru cet eni i mediul de afaceri. Aceast strategie adopt caracterul pragmatic al cercet rii industriale, îndep rtându-se de cercetarea pur speculativ , astfel încât s se urmeze trendurile interna ionale de orientare a CDI spre realizarea de impact practic i economic. De asemenea, SNCDI se bazeaz pe un parteneriat pentru inovare care s se bazeze pe urm torii patru piloni: Resurse bugetare (asigurate de stat prin alocarea unui procent din PIB), Predictibilitate (standarde i reguli clare pentru activitatea de CDI), Parteneriate Public-Private func ionale (astfel încât s se atrag cel pu in 1% din PIB in 2020), Cercet tori (atingerea unui num r de cercet tori similar mediei UE). Strategia României în domeniul CDI a identiÞ cat acele domenii ale economiei ce ar prezenta poten ial de cre tere, putând avea o contribu ie semniÞ cativ pentru cre terea competitivit ii economice. Astfel, s-au identiÞ cat priorit ile de specializare inteligent ale României ca Þ ind domenii economice cu competen crescut i unde ara noastr ar avea avantaje competitive reale sau poten iale fa de alte economii na ionale, ceea ce ar duce implicit la cre tere economic i cre terea Produsului Intern Brut. Astfel, SNCDI a identiÞ cat urm toarele zone economice ca având un important rol economic i de stimulare a ocup rii: turismul i ecoturismul, textilele i piel ria, lemnul i mobila, industriile de tip creativ. Industria auto, TIC i procesarea alimentelor i a b uturilor au fost identiÞ cate ca prezentând o dinamic economic competitiv , iar S n tatea i produsele farmaceutice, energia i managementul mediului i bioeconomia prezint valoare ad ugat i caracteristici importante de inovare i dezvoltare tehnologic .

Tot SNCDI propune i un set de priorit i cu relevan public care au ca scop atragerea de resurse i de idei creative în domenii ale CDI care aduc solu ii unor nevoi societale existente. În acest caz, sectorul public este cel care sus ine identiÞ carea i atragerea de la actori priva i sau publici de solu ii inovatoare, disruptive. Chiar dac un accent tot mai mare se pune pe comercializarea CDI, cercetarea fundamental ocup un loc important i în perioada urm toare, ea Þ ind important pentru stimularea ofertei de CDI, evaluate pe calitatea tiin iÞ c a propunerilor calculate în conformitate cu standardele interna ionale.

Un exemplu de prestigiu în acest sens îl reprezint proiectul de mare infrastructur de CDI Extreme Light Infrastructure – Nuclear Physics (ELI-


NP). De altfel, cadrul Þ nanciar 2014 – 2020 va marca punerea în func iune a dou mari infrastructuri de cercetare de interes pan-european: proiectul de la M gurele la ELI-NP i proiectul de la Tulcea, denumit Centrul interna ional pentru cercet ri avansate Fluvii – Delte – M ri Danubius.

Cre terea necesar pentru a atinge intele na ionale propuse de procent din PIB pentru CDI

Figura A

Date preluate de la Eurostat i interpretate de autor

A a cum rezult i din Fig. A de mai sus, România a Þ xat o int clar de alocare a 1% din PIB pentru CDI pân în anul 2020, ceea ce ar converge spre media Uniunii Europene. Cel pu in din punct de vedere declarativ, observ m c pentru CFM 2014 – 2020, România i-a propus cea mai mare dinamic de cre tere. Se observ c România, conduce plutonul rilor (Bulgaria, Grecia, Letonia, Lituania, Malta)ce au nevoie de o cre tere semniÞ cativ în domeniul cercet rii – dezvolt rii în vederea atingerii intei asumate aferente Strategiei Europa 2020. În acest grup, statele membre au Þ xat ni te inte foarte ambi ioase în compara ie cu nivelul din PIB anterior i trendurile trecute. Astfel, fa de media Uniunii Europene, România s-a angajat la un efeort mai serios i sus inut în vederea sprijinirii Cercet rii i Dezvolt rii. Sectoarele inovatoare: O aten ie deosebit trebuie acordat în special sectoarelor inovatoare pentru a identiÞ ca tendin ele care urmeaz s Þ e luate în considerare mai târziu. În primul rând, este relevant s observ m c România nu a îndeplinit înc obiectivul UE 2020 „3% cheltuieli din PIB în cercetare dezvoltare. Este de asemenea util s ne referim i la documentul Comisiei Europene: Innovation Union Scoreboard 2014 care împarte rile UE, în 4 categorii de o performan din punct de vedere al inov rii: Liderii, urma ii, inovatori modera i i inovatori mode ti - ultimul grup care cuprinde România,


Bulgaria i Letonia. Cu toate acestea, România Þ ind cel mai puternic „inovator modest”. Raportul detaliaz criteriile utilizate pentru a realiza acest clasament precum i faptul c în România, performan de inovare a crescut pân în 2009, dup care a ß uctuat. Performan în raport cu UE s-a înr ut it de la 50% în 2009 pân la 43% în 2013. România func ioneaz mult sub media UE dup aproape to i indicatorii. Performan a foarte slab se observ i din num rul de studen ii doctoranzi din afara UE i prin prisma cheltuielilor de cercetare i dezvoltare în sectorul de afaceri. O cre tere ridicat în România se observ pentru desene sau modele comunitare, m rci comunitare, noi absolven i de doctorat i co-publica ii tiin iÞ ce interna ionale. Scaderi puternice sunt observate în cheltuielile non cercetare – inovare, cheltuielile de cercetare i dezvoltare în sectorul de afaceri, studen ii doctoranzi din afara UE i investi iilor cu capital de risc.

Rezultatele de mai sus se completeaz prin analiza Institutului Na ional de Statistic din România (INSSE), publicat în iulie 2014, care ofer , de asemenea o perspectiv regional interesant . Pe scurt, la nivel de ar , în perioada 2010 - 2012, ponderea întreprinderilor inovative a fost de 20,7%, cu 10,1 puncte procentuale mai pu in, comparativ cu perioada 2008 - 2010 (vezi Fig. B de mai jos).

Ponderea întreprinderilor inovativeFigura B

Date preluate de la INS i interpretate de autor

Anumite activit i economice înregistreaz valori înalte de activit i inovatoare, astfel, activitatea economic cea mai inovatoare în industrie a fost fabricarea produselor din tutun, în 80,0% din întreprinderi, în timp ce în sectorul serviciilor au fost activit ile de cercetare - dezvoltare, pentru


55,5% din întreprinderi. Dup m rimea întreprinderilor, cele mari sunt mai inovatoare, 40,1%, în compara ie cu întreprinderile mijlocii, 26,6% i cele mici, 18,3%. Aceast tendin a fost, de asemenea, men ionat în cele dou sectoare, industrie i servicii (vezi tabel A de mai jos).

Tabel APrimele 10 activit i inovative între 2010 – 2012

Loc Activitatea economic %1 Produc ia de produse din tutun 80,02 Cercetare – Dezvoltare 55,53 Produc ia de produse farmaceutice 52,34 Produc ia de motoare auto 38,05 Activit i servicii IT&C 35,66 Repara ii, între inere instal ri ma ini i echipamente 35,67 Intermedieri Þ nanciare minus asigur ri i pensii 34,68 Asigur ri, reasigur ri i pensii (minus asigur ri sociale) 34,09 Servicii i activit i de decontaminare 33,010 Produc ia de ma ini i echipamente 32,2


Ponderea întreprinderilor inovative în totalul întreprinderilorFigura C


În perioada 2010-2012, cele mai mari ponderi ale întreprinderilor inovatoare au fost înregistrate în regiunea de Sud-Est, 36,5% i Regiunea Nord-Est 32,2%, iar cele mai joase au fost înregistrate de c tre Regiunea Vest 14,4% i Regiunea de Nord-Vest cu 12,0% (vezi Þ gura C.).

Concluzii Cadrul Þ nanciar multianual traduce priorit ile Uniunii Europene în termeni Þ nanciari, de stabilire a sumelor maxime anuale pe care UE le poate cheltui în diferite domenii politice, în urm torii apte ani. Prin deÞ nirea în care zone din UE ar trebui s se investeasc mai mult sau mai pu in în perioada


2014-2020, cadrul Þ nanciar multianual este o expresie a priorit ilor politice cât i un instrument de planiÞ care bugetar . Negocierile intense purtate de c tre institu iile UE fa de acordul privind CFM 2014-2020 a dus la aprobarea unui plafon global de 960 miliarde € în credite de angajament i 908 miliarde € pentru credite de plat . Acest buget este cu 3,5%, respectiv3,7%, mai mic decât în CFM 2007-2013. Aceast disciplin reß ect compromisul convenit în doi ani i jum tate de c tre institu iile UE, între politica UE de investi ii pentru cre tere i presiunea bugetar cu care statele membre s-au confruntat la nivel na ional. Un accent puternic a fost pus pe cheltuieli care vizeaz stimularea cre terii economice i crearea de locuri de munc , în conformitate cu priorit ile politice ale UE: plafonului de cheltuieli de la subpunctul 1a „Competitivitate pentru cre tere economic i locuri de munc ”, este crescut de mai mult de 37% fa de CFM 2007 -2013. Aceast categorie de cheltuieli include, printre altele, oportunit ile de Þ nan are pentru cercetare i inovare, educa ie i formare, re ele transeuropene în domeniul energiei, transporturilor i telecomunica iilor, politica social , dezvoltare a întreprinderilor. Un rol esen ial în crearea de cre tere economic i locuri de munc în Europa, este jucat de noul program pentru cercetare i inovare Orizont 2020, care este prev zut cu un buget de aproape 80 de miliarde de euro în pre uri curente, în jur de 30% mai mult decât în 2007-2013 perioad . Programul î i propune s stimuleze cercetarea de nivel înalt în Europa, consolidarea pozi iei de lider industrial în inovare, i de a promova investi iile în tehnologii cheie, un acces mai mare la capital i sprijin pentru IMM-uri. Orizont 2020 contribuie la abordarea provoc rilor

societale majore, contribuie la reducerea decalajului dintre cercetare i pia , i joac un rol important în cooperarea interna ional . Noul program COSME este un alt instrument esen ial pentru competitivitate, el se situeaz la 2,3 miliarde € disponibili pentru IMM-uri pentru a stimula competitivitatea i stimularea cre terii economice i a locurilor de munc în Europa. COSME este un program al UE adreseat IMM-urilor, i are drept scop facilitarea accesului lor la pie ele din interiorul i din afara UE i ofer acces u or la Þ nan are prin garan ii pentru împrumuturi i capitalul de risc.

BibliograÞ e 1. Anghelache, C. & Anghel, M. (2016). Econometrie teoretic . Concepte, teorie i

studii de caz, Editura Artifex, Bucure ti 2. Anghelache C., Voineagu V., Pâr achi I., Cara O., Dumitrescu, D., Soare, D.V.,

Integrated Approach on Statistics on Short-term in Practice, Revista Român de Statistic – Supliment Trim IV/2012, pg. 319-329.

3. Anghelache, C., & Anghel, M. G. (2015). Model of Analysis of the Dynamics of the DFI (DFI) Sold Correlated with the Evolution of the GDP at European Level. Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, 63(10), 79-85.


4. Anghelache, C., Manole, A., & Anghel, M. (2014). Analysis on the Gross Domestic Product Evolution. Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, 62(4), 7-15.

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ECONOMIC POTENTIAL OF INVESTMENTS IN RESEARCH - DEVELOPMENT -

INNOVATION FOR ACCELERATING GDP GROWTH IN ROMANIA

Prof. Alexandru MANOLE PhD ([email protected])

„Artifex” University of Bucharest Assistant professor Diana Valentina DUMITRESCU Ph.D([email protected])

„Artifex” University of Bucharest / Academy of Economic Studies, BucharestDaniel Ioan DUMITRESCU Ph.D ([email protected])

Abstract This article includes an analysis of the Þ eld of Research - Development - Innovation in Romania. The study focuses on identifying the current state of RDI in our country as compared to the other 27 Member States of the European Union. In the context of the Europe 2020 Strategy, this research is all the more important as Romania has made some commitments to step up its Þ nancial support for R & D & I so that at the end of the Multi-Annual Financial Framework 2014-2020 1% To be allocated to Research - Development - Innovation. Keywords: Research, Development, Innovation, GDP, Europe

Introduction In Romania, research and development policy in the Þ eld of technology and innovation has materialized by approving a Romanian RDI Strategy for the period 2014-2020, highlighting the importance this Þ eld can have for increasing economic competitiveness in the context of European policies in the Þ eld . Romania has also taken into account the drafting of this document to the priorities of the European Union presented in the framework of the Europe 2020 strategy, the Europe - Innovation Union initiative and the most important research and development program of the European Union - Horizon 2020. Europe 2020 priorities mean an increase that has the following characteristics: smart, sustainable and inclusive, and one of the most relevant objectives of the European RDI strategy is that by 2020, 3% of EU GDP will be allocated to investment RDI.

Literature review Sandu (2014) analyses the characteristics of the research and development results’ market in Romania. Avram, Avram and Avram (2014)


analyse the role of R&D expenditures in the economic growth. P unic , Gheorghiu, Curaj and Holeab (2009) present a prognosis on restructuring R&D systems. Anghelache and Anghel (2016) is a reference work in the Þ eld of econometrics. Nastase and Badea (2015) develop on the funding of scientiÞ c research in Romania. Goschin (2014) evaluates the R&D activities as a determinant factor of regional economic growth in Romania. Anghelache and Anghel (2015) analyse the impact of foreign direct investments, which can include investments in R&D, on the economic growth of Romania. Anghelache et.al. (2012) develop on the short-term statistics used in practice. Zaman and Georgescu (2014) describe the impact of attracting European funds on the national economy of Romania, Dobre 2014) develops on a close topic. Piroi and Paunica (2015) evaluate the favourable impact of technology on the Romanian budget deÞ cit. Anghelache, Manole and Anghel (2014) study the evolution of the Romanian Gross Domestic Product. Anghelache, Manole, Anghel and Diaconu (2016) present the most important correlations between macroeconomic variables. Popescu, Predescu and Oancea-Negescu (2014) review the economic factors of Romania’s future economic development.

Methodology and data The National Strategy for Development and Innovation Research - SNCDI, was built on a study on the national CDI market, a study funded by a contract with JASPERS. This study then evolved by highlighting the economic sectors with potential in the Þ eld. This strategy can be implemented through a series of subordinate instruments that include operational programs in force from 2014 to 2020. Thus, the RDI Þ eld will be achieved through ROP, POCU, NRDP, but especially through the Operational Program Competitiveness. PO Competitiveness (funded by the ERDF) supports smart growth, promoting the knowledge and innovation economy by investing in: 1. Strengthening Research, Technological Development and Innovation; 2.Sharing the use, quality and access to information and communication technologies. Financial allocations The Competitiveness Operational Program, amounting to EUR 1.33 billion, will be made for Priority Axis 1 - Research, Technological Development and Innovation (RDI) supporting economic competitiveness and business development - EUR 797,872,340 (60% of the JOP) and For Priority Axis 2 - Information and Communication Technology (ICT) for a competitive digital economy - 531,914,894 euros (40% of the GOP). As news items 2014 - 2020 as compared to 2007 - 2013, we can see that investments in RDI will be realized only in relation to the areas identiÞ ed in the national RDI strategy as „smart specialization” and partnerships between enterprises And research institutions to increase knowledge transfer,


technology and staff with RDI skills to develop RDI-based products and processes and market demand. ICT investments will also be geared towards improving the digital environment for public service provision for citizens and business. This strategy adopts the pragmatic nature of industrial research, moving away from purely speculative research, so as to follow the international trends of RDI orientation towards achieving practical and economic impact. SNCDI is also based on an innovation partnership based on the following four pillars: Budgetary resources (state-aided by allocating a percentage of GDP), Predictability (clear standards and rules for RDI activity), Public-Private Partnerships (So as to attract at least 1% of GDP in 2020), Researchers (reaching a number of researchers similar to the EU average). Romania’s RDI strategy has identiÞ ed those areas of the economy that have potential for growth and can make a signiÞ cant contribution to increasing economic competitiveness. Thus, Romania’s intelligent specialization priorities were identiÞ ed as economic areas with increased competence and where our country would have real or potential competitive advantages over other national economies, which would implicitly lead to economic growth and the increase of the Gross Domestic Product. Thus, SNCDI has identiÞ ed the following economic areas as having an important economic and employment boosting role: tourism and ecotourism, textiles and leather, wood and furniture, and creative industries. Automotive, ICT and food and beverage processing have been identiÞ ed as presenting competitive economic dynamics and Health and pharmaceuticals, energy and environmental management and bioeconomy have added value and important features of innovation and technological development. The SNCDI also proposes a set of priorities of public relevance aiming at attracting resources and creative ideas in the areas of RDI that bring solutions to existing societal needs. In this case, it is the public sector that supports the identiÞ cation and attraction of innovative, disruptive solutions from private or public actors. Even if a growing focus is on RDI trading, fundamental research is also important in the next period, and it is important to stimulate RDI supply, assessed on the scientiÞ c quality of proposals calculated in line with international standards. A prestigious example of this is the large-scale Infrastructure-Nuclear Physics (ELI-NP) infrastructure project. In fact, the Þ nancial framework 2014-2020 will mark the launching of two major pan-European research infrastructures: the Magurele project at ELI-NP and the Tulcea project, called the International Center for Advanced Research Fluvii - Delte - Marii Danubius.


Growth required to reach the national targets proposed by the percentage of GDP for RDI

Figure A


As also shown in Fig. A above, Romania set a clear target of allocating 1% of GDP to RDI by 2020, which would converge towards the European Union average. At least from a declarative point of view, we note that for the 2014-2020 MFF, Romania has set the highest growth dynamics. It is noticed that Romania is leading the platoon of countries (Bulgaria, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta) that need a signiÞ cant increase in R & D to achieve the Europe 2020 target. In this group, Member States have set very ambitious targets compared to previous GDP levels and past trends. Thus, towards the European Union average, Romania has committed itself to a more serious and sustained performance in support of Research and Development. Innovative sectors: Particular attention should be paid to innovative sectors in particular to identify the trends to be considered later. First of all, it is relevant to note that Romania has not yet achieved the EU 2020 target of 3% GDP spending on research development. It is also useful to refer to the European Commission document Innovation Union Scoreboard 2014 which divides EU countries into 4 categories of innovation performance: Leaders, followers, moderate innovators and modest innovators - the last group to include Romania, Bulgaria and Latvia, but Romania is the most powerful „modest innovator.” The report details the criteria used To achieve this ranking as well as the fact that innovation performance in Romania has increased until 2009, after which it has ß uctuated. Performance in relation to the EU has worsened from 50% in 2009 to 43% in 2013. Romania is well under The EU average for almost all indicators. Very poor performance is also seen from the number of non-EU doctoral students and In terms of R & D expenditure in the business sector. A high growth in Romania is observed for community designs, community marks, new PhD graduates and international scientiÞ c


co-publications. Strong declines are observed in non-research expenditures - innovation, R & D spending in the business sector, PhD students outside the EU and venture capital investments. The above results are complemented by the analysis of the National Institute of Statistics of Romania (INSSE), published in July 2014, which also offers an interesting regional perspective. In short, at the country level, between 2010 and 2012, the share of innovative enterprises was 20.7%, 10.1 percentage points less compared to 2008-2010 (see Figure B below).

Share of innovative enterprisesFigure B

Data taken from the INS and interpreted by the author

Certain economic activities record high values of innovative activities, thus the most innovative economic activity in the industry was the manufacture of tobacco products in 80.0% of enterprises, while in the service sector there were research and development activities for 55 , 5% of enterprises. By enterprise size, large ones are more innovative, 40.1%, compared to medium-sized enterprises, 26.6% and small ones, 18.3%. This trend has also been mentioned in the two sectors, industry and services (see Table A below).


The Þ rst 10 innovative activities between 2010 - 2012Table A

No Economic Activity %1 Tobacco products production 80,02 Research - Development 55,53 Production of pharmaceutical products 52,34 Production of motor cars 38,05 IT & C services activities 35,66 Repair, maintenance of machinery and equipment installations 35,67 Financial intermediation minus insurance and pensions 34,68 Insurance, reinsurance and pensions (minus social security) 34,09 Decontamination services and activities 33,010 Manufacture of machinery and equipment 32,2


Share of innovative enterprises in total enterprisesFigure C


In the period 2010-2012, the largest shares of innovative enterprises were registered in the South-East region, 36.5% and the North-East Region 32.2%, and the lowest recorded by the West Region 14, 4% and the North-West Region by 12.0% (see Figure C).

Conclusions The Multiannual Financial Framework translates the European Union’s priorities in Þ nancial terms, setting the maximum annual amounts that the EU can spend in different policy areas over the next seven years. By deÞ ning where the EU should invest more or less between 2014 and 2020, the multiannual Þ nancial framework is an expression of political priorities and a budgetary planning tool. The intense negotiations by the EU institutions over the 2014-2020 MFF agreement led to the approval of a global ceiling of € 960 billion in commitment appropriations and € 908 billion in payment appropriations. This budget is 3.5% and 3.7% lower than in the MFF 2007-2013. This discipline reß ects the two-and-a-half-year compromise agreed by


the EU institutions between the EU’s investment policy for growth and the budgetary pressure faced by Member States at national level. Strong emphasis has been put on spending aimed at boosting growth and job creation, in line with the EU’s policy priorities: the expenditure ceiling under subheading 1a „Competitiveness for growth and jobs” is increasing More than 37% compared to the MFF 2007 -2013. This category of expenditure includes, among other things, funding opportunities for research and innovation, education and training, trans-European energy, transport and telecommunications networks, social policy, business development. An essential role in creating growth and jobs in Europe is played by the new Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, which has a budget of nearly € 80 billion in current prices, around 30% More than in the 2007-2013 period. The program aims to stimulate high-level research in Europe, strengthen industrial leadership in innovation, and promote investment in key technologies, greater access to capital and support for SMEs. Horizon 2020 contributes to tackling major societal challenges, helps reduce the gap between research and the market, and plays an important role in international cooperation. The new COSME program is another key instrument for competitiveness, it is worth € 2.3 billion available to SMEs to boost competitiveness and stimulate growth and jobs in Europe. COSME is an EU SME program aimed at facilitating access to markets inside and outside the EU and providing easy access to Þ nance through loan guarantees and venture capital.

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studii de caz, Editura Artifex, Bucure ti 2. Anghelache C., Voineagu V., Pâr achi I., Cara O., Dumitrescu, D., Soare, D.V.,

Integrated Approach on Statistics on Short-term in Practice, Revista Român de Statistic – Supliment Trim IV/2012, pg. 319-329.

3. Anghelache, C., & Anghel, M. G. (2015). Model of Analysis of the Dynamics of the DFI (DFI) Sold Correlated with the Evolution of the GDP at European Level. Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, 63(10), 79-85.

4. Anghelache, C., Manole, A., & Anghel, M. (2014). Analysis on the Gross Domestic Product Evolution. Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, 62(4), 7-15.

5. Anghelache, C., Manole, A., Anghel, M. G., & Diaconu, A. (2016). Essentials aspects on macroeconomic variables and their correlations. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 23(1 (606), Spring), 151-162.

6. Avram, A., Avram, C. D., & Avram, V. (2014). Research and development expenditures between discretionary costs and source for economic growth. Romanian Journal of Economics, 39 (2 (48)), 49-66.

7. Dobre, A.S. (2014). The Impact Of Eu Funds On Romanian Economy, Journal of Financial and Monetary Economics, Volume (Year): 1 (2014), Issue 1, Pages: 38-48.


8. Goschin, Z. (2014). R&D as an engine of regional economic growth in Romania. Romanian Journal of Regional Science, 8(1), 24-37.

9. Nastase, G. I., & Badea, C. G. W. (2015). Aspects Concerning Romanian ScientiÞ c Research Funding. Calitatea, 16(S1), 365.

10. P unic , M., Gheorghiu, R., Curaj, A., & Holeab, C. (2009). Foresight for restructuring R&D systems. The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, 11(25), 201-210.

11. Piroi, M., & Paunica, M. (2015, June). How Technology can Help in Reducing Romania’s Budget DeÞ cit. In Proceedings of The 15th European Conference on eGovernment ECEG 2015 University of Portsmouth (p. 419).

12. Popescu, M. L., Predescu, A., & Oancea-Negescu, M. D. (2014). Economic factors concerning development of Romania as future silver economy. Calitatea, 15(S1), 355.

13. Sandu, S. (2014). Market of R&D Results in Romania. Procedia Economics and Finance, 8, 649-657.

14. Zaman, G., Georgescu, G. (2014). The Absorption Rate Of Eu Structural And Cohesion Funds In 2007-2013 And The Impact On Macroeconomic Indicators Of Romania, The Journal of the Faculty of Economics – Economic, Volume (Year): 1 (2014), Issue (Month): 1 (July), Pages: 206-216.




Analiza inß uen ei comer ului interna ional asupra cre terii economice

în Uniunea European

Conf. univ. dr. M d lina-Gabriela ANGHEL ([email protected])

Universitatea „Artifex„ din Bucure tiProf. univ. dr. Constantin ANGHELACHE ([email protected])

Academia de Studii Economice, Bucure ti / Universitatea „Artifex”, Bucure tiDrd. Georgiana NI ([email protected]) Academia de Studii Economice din Bucure ti

Abstract În acest articol, autorii au urm rit s analizeze corela ia care exist între comer ul interna ional i cre terea economic . Bazat pe seriile de date publicate de eurostat cu privire la produsul intern brut pe locuitor, importul, exportul i gradul de acoperire a importurilor prin exporturi, s-a analizat corela ia care exist între aceste variabile statistice. Analiza s-a efectuat pe total Uniunea European , dar i pe Þ ecare ar în parte. S-au eviden iat corela iile existente i ierarhizarea statelor membre ale Uniunii Europene dup valoarea indicatorilor men iona i. Seriile de date Eurostat privind indicatorii men iona i sunt prezenta i în anexe. În Þ nal, s-a recurs la utilizarea modelului de regresie simpl i multipl pentru adâncirea analizei. Cuvinte cheie: comer interna ional, cre tere economic , export, import, corela ie ClasiÞ carea JEL: F44, P33

Introducere În acest articol, s-a pornit de la faptul c un excedent în domeniul produc iei de bunuri i servicii presupune un export care este beneÞ c pentru ara în cauz . De asemenea, se analizeaz i faptul c restric ia unor resurse

materiale i Þ nanciare în încercarea de armonizare macroeconomic impune importuri. Desigur, diferen a dintre exporturi i importuri reprezint exportul net, care poate Þ negativ i reprezint un deÞ cit sau poate Þ pozitiv i exprim un excedent. Autorii prezint pe larg activitatea economic propriu-zis i, apoi, se axeaz pe a analiza activitatea de prospectare, prognozare a activit ii macroeconomice. În toate aceste situa ii, se recurge la analiza elementelor concrete pe care le sintetizeaz în func ii matematice, pornind de la sistemul balan elor existente între elementele structurale ale economiei na ionale. Pe aceast baz , se analizeaz balan ele materiale, balan a comercial i


balan a de pl i externe, formalizându-se i ecua iile matematice care dau sens acestor analize i intepret ri. Balan a leg turilor dintre ramuri este un model important, care în structura tabelului sintetic cu cele patru cadrane, cuprinde i elementele referitoare la import i export. Acestea, se pot utiliza pentru a putea stabili elementele statice pe baza c rora s fac previziunea rela iilor economice interna ionale ale rii. În context, sunt przentate rela iile econometrico-matematice care stau la baza acestor analize i interpret ri. Pentru a reliefa i mai mult situa ia, pentru Þ ecare stat, dar, mai ales, pentru România, c ci acesta este obiectivul analizei, am recurs la unele modele econometrice pentru a eviden ia în cazul României i al altor câteva state, care este evolu ia i, mai ales, care va Þ trendul de evolu ie în perioada viitoare. Aceste modele econometrice, în principal regresia liniar simpl sau multipl , dau parametrii de regresie care sunt utilizabili în prognoza perspectivei evolu iei indicatorilor macroeconomici despre care am discutat, în cazul unei

ri, în cazul tuturor rilor la un loc adic cele 28/27 de state. În cazul de fa , ne-am rezumat mai mult la a stabili care este ponderea i perspectiva pe care o are România ca ar membr a Uniunii Europene.

Literature review Amiti and Weinstein (2011) develop on the correlation exports and Þ nancial shocks. Amiti, Itskhoki, Konings (2014) analyze the exchange rate as inß uenced by importers and exporters. Staiger and Sykes (2011) discuss on the regulation of international commerce. Anghel, Manole, Stoica (2016) evaluate, by econometric methods, the interdependence between direct foreign investments and import. Anghelache and Anghel (2016) is a reference work in econometrics. Harrison, McLaren and McMillan (2011) analyze the perspectives on trade and inequity. Konya (2006) present a study based on Granger causality between exports and economic growth. Anghelache, Anghelache, Anghel (2016) study the evolution of Romania’s foreign trade, studies on the same topic, but for different time horizons, were presented by Anghelache, Manole, Sacal (2014), Anghelache, Anghelache, Panait and Jweida (2016), Anghelache et.al. (2014), Anghelache and Manole (2012). Karacaovalia and Limão (2008) develop on trade liberalization in the European Union. Melitz (2003) studies the inß uence of trade on aggregate productivity of the industry. Nguyen (2012) develops on uncertainty related to demand within the foreign commerce process. Soderbery (2015) discusses on import supply and elasticity of demand. Chor and Manova (2012) have evaluated the international trade during the recent economic crisis, Eaton, Kortum, Neiman and Romalis (2016) approach a close topic. Anghelache, Anghelache and Dumbrav (2009) present a structural analysis of the international commerce.


Hummels (2007) develops on the impact of globalization on transportation costs and international trade. Anghelache and Anghel (2014) present the instruments and concepts of modeling in economics. Bernard, Jensen, Redding and Schott (2012) study the correlation of the Þ rm heterogeneity with the international trade. Hill and Smith (2011) describe the international relations in the European context. Kehoea, Pujolàsd, Ruhle (2016) analyze the topic of the opportunity costs in foreign trade activity. Büthe and Milner (2008) discuss on attracting foreign investments by encouraging trade agreements, as a policy issue in developing countries. Anghelache (2008) discusses on the international trade statistics. Fajgelbaum, Grossman and Helpman (2011) analyze the correlation between income distribution and international trade. Caron, Fally and Markusen (2014) analyze the match between production and preferences in the international trade activity. Goos, Manning and Salomons (2009) analyze the polarization of jobs in Europe.

Metodologia cercet rii i date Autorii constat c schimburile import-export i cooperare în cadrul Uniunii Europene situeaz unele ri în parte de jos a clasamentului stabilit dup acest indicator sintetic de rezultate cel mai concret, i asta deoarece economiile na ionale au fost dezorganizare i se reorganizeaz mai greu, resursele Þ nanciare sunt limitate, iar standardul de dezvoltare industrial le asigur o participare mult mai redus la cooperarea economic european . Interesant în studiul pe baza acestui indicator, produs intern brut/capita este i modul în care au evoluat aceste ri din 2004 pân în 2015. Cu toate acestea, rile membre ale Uniunii Europene au înregistrat rezultate pozitive la acest indicator, de i s-au confruntat cu o reducere a acestui indicator începând cu 2007. Astfel, Irlanda cu un produs intern brut/capita de 41.700 euro în 2008 a avut un trend descresc tor în 2009, 2010, 2011 când s-a reluat cre terea produsului intern brut/locuitor, dar într-un ritm mai temperat pân în 2013. Norvegia i ea ar cu resurse, cu capacitate Þ nanciar i mai ales posesoare a marii resurse de petrol i gaze din Marea Nordului, a

avut o stagnare i o reducere în perioada 2008-2010 ca i celelalte ri, Elve ia i Luxemburg.

Pentru a Þ ediÞ cator, am efectuat studiul pornind de la ponderea pe care o au exporturile în produsul intern brut, ca i a importurilor realizate pe aceste pie e. În Þ nal, nu este de neglijat faptul c rile membre ale Uniunii Europene trebuie s - i analizeze cu aten ie raportul între exporturi i importuri sau, mai bine zis, modul în care î i acoper importurile prin exporturi. În aceast situa ie se aß chiar i rile cu rezultate remarcabile cum sunt: Luxemburg, Malta, Irlanda, Slovacia, marile puteri economico-


industriale, Germania, Fran a, Marea Britanie, dar mai ales rile cu un poten ial economic mai redus cum sunt: Turcia, Albania. Interesant este pozi ia oarecum nea teptat a Marii Britanii care înregistreaz doar 27,6% exporturi în total Produsul Intern Brut. Constat m c aceste state sunt cele care au o popula ie mai redus , au resurse i sunt participante în primul rând datorit multina ionalelor pe care le au pe teritoriul lor sau la care particip pentru a realiza ac iuni de cooperare, prestând servicii sau pentru a realiza schimburi cu prelucrare activ în cazul importurilor pentru exporturi. A adar, pe baza indicatorilor export/import putem aprecia dac o ar consum mai mult decât produce sau produce ma imult decât consum ,

sau cu alte cuvinte, modul în care ara respectiv particip la schimburile de bunuri i servicii intracomunitare. Altele care particip mai pu in la cooperarea i schimburile europene în calitatea de produc toare/exportatoare vor resim i aceast participarea mai redus la schimburile de bunuri i servicii intracomunitare. Iat de ce, în cele prezentate, din tabelele sintetizatoare ca i din unele reprezent ri graÞ ce, rezult foarte clar modul în care România ca i alte ri membre ale Uniunii Europene, au fost în centrul aten iei din acest

punct de vedere sau au avut de suferit din multe cauze. Pentru a adânci studiul bazat pe analiza indicatorilor macroeconomici ai rilor membre ai Uniunii Europene, am recurs i la utilizarea unor modele econometrice care s reliefeze prin modul în care a evoluat economia acestor state în perioada urm toare. A a de pild , am folosit regresia liniar simpl , pentru care am calculat raportul dintre produsul intern brut i export. Func ia utilizat este cea a liniei drepte ,care în Þ nal a eviden iat c testele statistice utilizate dau unele rezultate. Modelul utilizat nu a fost pentru calculul indicatorilor macroeconomici de rezultate, cât mai ales pentru analiza perspectivei trendului de evolu ie macroeconomic . Am folosit i o regresie multipl în care produsul intern brut l-am pus în corela ie cu importurile, exporturile i acoperirea importurilor prin exporturi. Datele au ar tat o inß uen pozitiv a tuturor celor trei factori asupra cre terii produsului intern brut i pe cale de consecin i a produsului intern brut pe un locuitor. Datele sunt prezentate în cadrul unei analize liniare simple i regresie liniar multipl . Toate la un loc eviden iaz faptul c schimburile intracomunitare reprezint un factor de cre tere al produsului intern brut din Þ ecare ar membr a Uniunii Europene.


Rezultatele testelor statistice ale seriei PIB pe cap de locuitor în perioada 2005-2015

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000

Series: GDPC

Sample 2005 2015

Observations 11

Mean 6336.364

Median 6600.000

Maximum 8100.000

Minimum 3800.000

Std. Dev. 1254.012

Skewness -0.706302

Kurtosis 2.821429

Jarque-Bera 0.929198

Probability 0.628387

Statistica seriei arat c Produsul Intern Brut pe cap de locuitor al României a oscilat între un minim de 3800 de euro i un maxim de 8100 de euro. Pentru intervalul analizat, valoarea median este 6600.

Rezultatele testelor statistice ale seriei Ponderea exportului în Produsul Intern Brut în perioada 2005-2015

0

1

2

3

25.0 27.5 30.0 32.5 35.0 37.5 40.0 42.5

Series: EWGDP

Sample 2005 2015

Observations 11

Mean 34.27273

Median 32.90000

Maximum 41.20000

Minimum 26.90000

Std. Dev. 5.288684

Skewness -0.017052

Kurtosis 1.607823



Ponderea exportului în Produsul Intern Brut este caracterizat de o valoare minim de 26,9%, în timp ce nivelul maxim de 41,2%. Mediana înregistrat a fost de 32,9% pentru cele 11 observa ii incluse în studiul nostru.


Corelograma Ponderea exportului în PIB – PIB

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

EWGDP GDPC

Estimarea parametrilor modelului de regresie

Dependent Variable: GDPC


Date: 04/24/17 Time: 13:31

Sample: 2005 2015


GDPC =C(1) + C(2) * EWGDP


C(1) 2019.412 2319.718 0.870542 0.4066

C(2) 125.9588 66.96316 1.881016 0.0927








Estimarea modelului de regresie arat o leg tur relativ slab între variabila independent i PIB / locuitor. Valorile sc zute ale testelor R-p trat i Adjusted R-square arat c modelul poate explica varia ia PIB pe cap de

locuitor prin evolu ia ponderii exportului în PIB într-o pondere de 20%.


Cre terea cu 1 punct procentual a ponderii exportului ar trebui s conduc la o cre tere a PIB / locuitor cu aproape 126 de euro. Trebuie remarcat faptul c valoarea termenului liber este ridicat , referindu-se la inß uen a altor factori care nu sunt inclu i în aceast etap a modelului, aceast valoare este de aproximativ 15 ori mai mare decât coeÞ cientul de regresie C (2).

Evolu ia indicatorilor în perioada 2005-2015YEAR 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015GDPC 3800 4600 6000 6900 5900 6300 6600 6700 7200 7600 8100

EWGDP 32,9 32,1 29,1 26,9 27,4 32,3 36,8 37,5 39,7 41,2 41,1IWGDP 43 44 43,4 40,2 33,8 38,4 42,4 42,4 40,5 41,6 41,7

WIE 0,76 0,73 0,68 0,7 0,84 0,86 0,88 0,9 0,99 0,98 1,01Dataset for the Romanian economy

Evolu ia indicelui na ional brut pe cap de locuitor i variabilele sale factoriale în România în perioada 2005-2015

* în sute de euro pe cap de locuitor


Corela ia dintre variabila dependent i cele independente

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

GDPC EWGDP

IWGDP WIE

Estimarea parametrilor modelului de regresie



Date: 04/24/17 Time: 13:53

Sample: 2005 2015


GDPC = C(1) + C(2)*EWGDP + C(3)* IWGDP + C(4)*WIE


C(1) -44963.99 26846.74 -1.674840 0.1379

C(2) -1185.379 676.0788 -1.753315 0.1230

C(3) 1062.107 627.7116 1.692031 0.1345

C(4) 56957.99 28545.02 1.995374 0.0862








Modelul de regresie multipl relev faptul c to i factorii au o inß uen semniÞ cativ asupra produsului intern brut pe cap de locuitor. Testele statistice


ale modelului ofer un nivel moderat de încredere în estimare, deoarece varia ia variabilei dependente poate Þ explicat prin evolu iile celor trei regresori în aproximativ 50%. Ponderea exportului în PIB are o inß uen negativ , ceea ce este, de asemenea, sesizabil în sfera analizei noastre. Cre terea contribu iei la export m surat prin aceast variabil cu 1 punct procentual va duce la o sc dere a PIB / locuitor cu 1185 de euro. Putem observa c ceilal i doi factori au o inß uen pozitiv , cea mai semniÞ cativ Þ ind acoperirea exporturilor. Cu toate acestea, impactul pozitiv reprezentat de modiÞ carea ultimilor doi factori este contrabalansat de inß uen a altor factori, care nu sunt inclu i în acest studiu, care au un efect major i negativ asupra modiÞ c rii PIB pe cap de locuitor, dup cum indic nivelul CoeÞ cientul C (1).

Concluzii În acest articol, autorii au pus accentul pe a stabili rela iile economico-Þ nanciare externe i modul în care acestea se resfrâng asupra rezultatelor macroeconomice. Din acest punct de vedere, activitatea de previzionare (prognozare) a rela iilor economico-comerciale externe cap t un aspect deosebit. S-a realizat o punere în tem cu privire la con inutul activit ii de prognozare a rela iilor economice interna ionale, precum i cu privire la cerin ele activit ii de prospectare i prognozare a activit ii economico-sociale. Din modul în care sunt prezentate aspectele în acest articol rezult foarte clar posibilitatea de a analiza i interpreta efectul pe care îl au importurile i exporturile unei ri asupra rezultatelor Þ nale, concretizate în produsul intern brut, ca indicator de cea mai larg i complex prezentare a rezultatelor macroeconomice într-o perioad de timp. Încercând o sistematizare a condi iilor de realizare a acestei activit i economice interna ionale, r spundem criteriului de calitate al unei economii na ionale. Este îndeob te cunoscut c numai specializarea în produc ie i cercetare presupune cooperarea pe plan mai larg, interna ional. Desigur, în sistemul Uniunii Europene 27/28 exist domenii în care se pot adânci schimburile sau cooperarea în proiecte economice comunitare. Schimburile sunt guvernate de directiva Uniunii Economice Europene privind libera circula ie a bunurilor i serviciilor. În acest context, f r voin a unilateral a unei ri membre, acestea se împart în dou grupe de ri. În acest articol, am interpretat bazele de date existente furnizate de Eurostat, dar pentru a concretiza rolul pe care îl au schimburile de bunuri i servicii intracomunitare, am recurs i la modele econometrice, pretabile spre a Þ utilizate în acest sens. Autorii consider c studiul efectuat, limitat desigur, poate Þ adâncit, i nu numai pe baza exemplului expus în acest articol, dar i prin posibilitatea de a efectua studii pe baza de modele econometrice asupra


Þ ec rei ri, studii complexe utilizând metode statistico-econometrice (metoda indicilor, metoda seriilor cronologice, metoda reprezent rilor graÞ ce) sau utilizând modele econometrico-matematice analitice care cuantiÞ c evolu ia, inß uen a factorilor i pe aceast cale se creeaz posibilitatea ca prin extrapolare s se poat prognoza trendul de evolu ie al Uniunii Europene în principal ca i trendul de evolu ia al Þ ec rei ri în parte. Desigur, în cadrul acestui studiu

era eÞ cient s facem o analiz pe baza modelului econometric utilizat i în ceea ce prive te evolu ia Uniunii Europene în ansamblu s u, luând în calcul cei trei indicatori (export, import i rata acoperirii importurilor prin exporturi) la nivel european i apoi comparând parametrii de regresie rezulta i la nivelul analizei Uniunii Eropene s putem stabili care a fost i este trendul evolu iei României sau oric rui alt stat.

References 1. Amiti, M., Weinstein, D. (2011). Exports and Financial Shocks, Quarterly Journal

of Economics, 126 (4), pp.1841-1877 2. Amiti, M., Itskhoki, O., Konings, J. (2014). Importers, Exporters, and Exchange

Rate Disconnect, American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 1942-1978

3. Anghel, M.G., Manole, A., Stoica, R. (2016). Correlation between direct foreign investments and import – cantitative model of analyse, Romanian Statistical Review, Supplement, no. 10, pp. 106-109

4. Anghelache, C., Anghel, M.G. (2016). Econometrie general . Concepte, teorie i studii de caz, Editura Artifex, Bucure ti

5. Anghelache, C., Anghelache, G.V., Anghel, M.G. (2016). Analysis of the Evolution of Romanian Foreign Commercial Exchange, Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Issue 3/2016, pp. 82-90

6. Anghelache, C., Anghelache, G., Panait, M., Jweida, I.J. (2016). The Analysis of International Trade of Romania, Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, no. 12, pp. 91-98

7. Anghelache, C., Anghel, M.G. (2014). Modelare economic . Concepte, teorie i studii de caz, Editura Economic , Bucure ti

8. Anghelache, C., Manole, A., Sacal , C. (2014). Romanian International Trade Evolution, Romanian Statistical Review, Supplement, no. 7, pp. 17-24

9. Anghelache, C., Anghelache, G.V., Anghel, M.G., Barda u, G., Sacal , C. (2014). The International Trade Evolution, Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Issue 1, pp. 84-87

10. Anghelache, C., Manole, A. (2012). Analysis Models of Romania’s Foreign Trade, Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies And Research, nr. 2/2012, pp. 23-36

11. Anghelache, C., Anghelache, C.S., Dumbrav , M. (2009). The foreign trade activity structural analysis, Metalurgia Interna ional Vol. XIV, nr. 14 Special Issue, Editura tiin iÞ c F.M.R., pp. 71-74



13. Bernard, A.B., Jensen, J.B., Redding, S.J., Schott, P.K. (2012) The Empirics of Firm Heterogeneity and International Trade, Annual Review of Economics, 4, 1, pp. 283-313

14. Büthe, T., Milner, H. (2008). The Politics of Foreign Direct Investment into Developing Countries: Increasing FDI through International Trade Agreements?, American Journal of Political Science, Volume 52, Issue 4, pp. 741–762

15. Caron, J., Fally, T., Markusen, J.R. (2014). International trade puzzles: A solution linking production and preferences, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129(3), pp.1501-1552

16. Chor, D., Manova, K. (2012). “Off the Cliff and Back? Credit Conditions and international trade during the global Þ nancial crisis.” Journal of International Economics, 87(1), pp. 117-133

17. Eaton, J., Kortum, S., Neiman, B., Romalis, J. (2016). Trade and the Global Recession, American Economic Review, 106(11), pp. 3401-3438

18. Fajgelbaum, P., Grossman, G., Helpman, E. (2011). Income Distribution, Product Quality, and International Trade, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 119, no. 4, pp. 721-765

19. Goos, M., Manning, A., Salomons, A. (2009). Job Polarization in Europe, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 99(2), pp. 58-63

20. Hill, C., Smith, M. (2011). International relations and the European Union, Second Edition, Oxford University Press

21. Harrison, A., McLaren, J., McMillan, M. (2011). Recent Perspectives on Trade and Inequality, Annual Review of Economics, Vol 3, pp 261-289

22. Hummels, D. (2007). Transportation Costs and International Trade in the Second Era of Globalization, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Summer 2007, vol. 21, no.3, pp. 131–154

23. Karacaovalia, B., Limão, N. (2008). The clash of liberalizations: Preferential vs. multilateral trade liberalization in the European Union, Journal of International Economics, Volume 74, Issue 2, pp. 299–327

24. Kehoea, T., Pujolàsd, P., Ruhle, K. (2016). The opportunity costs of entrepreneurs in international trade, NBER Working Paper Series, Cambridge, August 2016, Working Paper No. 22514

25. Konya, L. (2006). Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach, Economic Modelling, 23, pp. 978-992

26. Melitz, M. J. (2003). The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity, Econometrica, 71(6), 1695–1725

27. Nguyen, D.X. (2012). Demand uncertainty: Exporting delays and exporting failures, Journal of International Economics, 86, pp.336-344

28. Soderbery, A. (2015). Estimating import supply and demand elasticities: Analysis and implications, Journal of International Economics, 96(1), pp.1-17

29. Staiger, R., Sykes, A. (2011). International trade, national treatment, and domestic regulation, Journal of Legal Studies, 40(1), pp. 149-203


Anexa nr. 1Gross domestic product at market prices

At current prices Current prices, euro per capita geo\time 2004 2007 2010 2013 2014 2015 EU (28 countries) 22500 26000 25500 26700 27600 28900 Euro area (changing composition) 25900 29100 28900 29700 30100 30800 Euro area (19 countries) 25000 28400 28500 29500 30000 30800 Belgium 28700 32500 33500 35300 35900 36600 Bulgaria 2700 4300 5200 5800 5900 (p) 6300 (p)Czech Republic 9400 13400 14900 15000 14900 15800 Denmark 37500 42700 43800 46100 47000 47800 Germany 27900 31000 32100 35000 36100 37100 Estonia 7100 12100 11000 14300 15000 15400 Ireland 38400 44800 36700 39200 41900 55100 Greece 17700 21100 20300 16500 (p) 16300 (p) 16200 (p)Spain 20100 23900 23200 22000 22300 (p) 23200 (p)France 27300 30400 30800 32100 32300 (p) 32800 (p)Croatia 7800 10200 10500 10200 10200 10400 Italy 25000 27400 26800 26500 26700 27000 Cyprus 19100 22900 23300 21000 20600 20800 (p)Latvia 5200 10300 8500 11300 11800 12300 Lithuania 5400 9000 9000 11800 12500 12900 Luxembourg 60300 76500 78700 85000 88300 89900 Hungary 8300 10100 9800 10300 10600 11100 Malta 12100 14200 15900 18000 19700 21400 Netherlands 32200 37400 38000 38900 39300 (p) 40000 (p)Austria 29600 34000 35200 38000 38700 39400 Poland 5400 8200 9400 10300 (e) 10700 (e) 11200 (e)Portugal 14500 16600 17000 16300 16600 17300 (e)Romania 2900 6000 6300 7200 7600 8100 (p)Slovenia 13900 17400 17700 17400 18100 18700 Slovakia 6400 10400 12400 13700 14000 14500 Finland 30300 35300 34900 37400 37600 38200 Sweden 34200 39000 39400 45400 44600 45600 United Kingdom 32100 36500 29200 32000 35000 39600 Iceland 37700 50000 31500 36000 39600 45700 Liechtenstein : : : : : : Norway 46400 62200 66200 77400 73200 67100 Switzerland 42600 46000 55900 63700 64700 (p) 73000 (p)Montenegro : : : : : : Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, the 2300 3000 3500 3900 (e) : : Albania : : : : : : Serbia 2700 4000 4100 4800 4700 4700 Turkey : : : : : : Kosovo (under United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244/99) : : : : : :

:=not available p=provisional e=estimated b=break in time series Source of Data: Eurostat; Last update: 27.01.2017; Date of extraction: 30 Jan 2017 17:25:08 CETHyperlink to the table: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tec00001General Disclaimer of the EC website: http://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htm Short Description: GDP (gross domestic product) is an indicator for a nation´s economic situation. It reß ects the total value of all goods and services produced less the value of goods and services used for intermediate consumption in their production. Expressing GDP in PPS (purchasing power standards) eliminates differences in price levels between countries, and calculations on a per head basis allows for the comparison of economies signiÞ cantly different in absolute size.Code: tec00001


Anexa nr. 2Exports of goods and services in % of GDP

geo\time 2005 2007 2010 2013 2014 2015EU (28 countries) 35,1 37,9 38,6 42,8 43,1 44Euro area (changing composition) 35,8 39,1 38,9 43,8 44,6 46,2Euro area (19 countries) 36,2 39,5 39 44 44,7 46,2Belgium 73,5 77,5 76,4 81,8 83,2 82,9Bulgaria 42,9 52,4 50,2 64,7 65 64,1Czech Republic 62,3 66,6 66,2 76,9 82,5 83Denmark 47,5 51,5 50,5 54,8 54,5 55,2Germany 37,7 43 42,3 45,5 45,7 46,8Estonia 65,9 63,2 75,1 84,5 83,1 79,3Ireland 79,6 80,7 103,4 106 114 124Greece 21,3 22,5 22,1 30,4 32,5 31,9Spain 24,7 25,7 25,5 32,2 32,7 33,2France 26,4 27,1 26 28,6 28,9 30Croatia 39,3 39 37,7 43 46,4 50Italy 24,7 27,4 25,2 28,9 29,3 30,1Cyprus 55,7 53,3 50,2 58,7 62,2 61,2Latvia 43,2 38,5 53,7 60,3 59,6 59Lithuania 53,8 50,4 65,3 84 80,9 75,9Luxembourg 161 184,2 175,1 192 209 236Hungary 62,8 78,3 82,2 86 88,7 90,7Malta 104 129,5 153,3 157 149 143Netherlands 66,6 70,3 72 82 82,6 82,5Austria 48,6 52,5 51 53,2 53 53,1Poland 34,6 38,6 40,1 46,3 47,6 49,6Portugal 26,7 31 29,9 39,5 40,1 40,6Romania 32,9 29,1 32,3 39,7 41,2 41,1Slovenia 59,6 67,6 64,3 75,2 76,4 77,9Slovakia 72 83,3 76,3 93,8 91,8 93,5Finland 40,3 44 38,7 38,8 37,7 36,6Sweden 45,9 48,3 46,2 43,8 45 45,6United Kingdom 24,7 24,9 28,3 29,8 28,1 27,6Iceland 30,6 33,4 53,7 55,4 53,3 53,7Liechtenstein : : : : : :Norway 43,4 43,3 39,8 39,2 38,9 37,4Switzerland 53,9 61,6 64,2 72,3 64,9 62,9Montenegro : : 37 41,3 40,1 42,5Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, the 34,8 44,1 39,8 43,4 47,7 48,8

Albania 23 28,2 32,4 28,7 28,2 27,3Serbia 27,1 28,4 32,9 41,2 43,4 46,7Turkey 21 21,2 20,4 22,3 23,8 23,3:=not available p=provisional e=estimatedSource of Data: Eurostat; Last update: 27.01.2017; Date of extraction: 30 Jan 2017 17:28:17 CETHyperlink to the table:http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tet0000General Disclaimer of the EC website: http://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htmShort Description: This indicator is the value of exports of goods and services divided by the GDP in current prices.Code: tet00003


Anexa nr. 3Imports of goods and services in % of GDP

geo\time 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2014 2015EU (28 countries) 34,4 37,4 34 40 40,3 40,4 41Euro area (changing composition) 34,3 37,5 33 40 40,5 41,1 42Euro area (19 countries) 34,8 38,1 34 41 40,7 41,2 42Belgium 69,9 73,7 67 81 80,7 82,3 81Bulgaria 57,6 71,2 51 59 65,1 66 64Czech Republic 60 64,1 55 68 71,1 76,2 77Denmark 41,9 48,6 43 47 48,2 47,6 48Germany 32,7 36,4 33 40 39,5 39,1 39Estonia 71 72,1 56 81 82,5 79,5 75Ireland 68,7 72,5 80 84 87,3 95,9 92Greece 29,6 35 29 32 33,2 34,9 32Spain 29,7 31,7 24 29 29 30,2 31France 26,8 28,4 26 30 30,5 30,9 31Croatia 45,4 46,3 38 41 42,6 44,4 47Italy 24,8 27,8 23 29 26,6 26,5 27Cyprus 56,2 58 54 56 56,9 60,1 61Latvia 57,7 57,5 44 63 63,5 61,5 60Lithuania 61,1 63,5 54 78 82,7 79 77Luxembourg 137 152 137 147 161 177 203Hungary 65,1 77,6 71 81 79 81,7 82Malta 107 129 149 158 150 136 136Netherlands 57,9 61,4 56 69 71,3 71,7 72Austria 45,5 48,3 42 51 50,6 49,7 49Poland 35,7 42,1 38 45 44,4 46,1 47Portugal 35,8 38,6 34 39 38,5 39,9 40Romania 43 43,4 34 42 40,5 41,6 42Slovenia 60,2 68,9 55 69 69,6 68,9 69Slovakia 76,6 84,4 69 86 89,6 88,2 91Finland 36,4 39,2 34 40 39,7 38,6 37Sweden 38,7 41,3 39 42 39,3 40,7 41United Kingdom 27,4 27,5 29 32 32 30,1 29Iceland 42,5 42,5 41 49 47,5 47 46Liechtenstein : : : : : : :Norway 27,4 29,9 28 29 28,5 30 32Switzerland 46,7 50,3 50 57 60,2 53,1 51Montenegro : : : 64 61,4 60 61Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, the 51 62 54 66 61,5 64,9 65Albania 47,9 55 54 57 47 47,2 45Serbia 47,1 52,7 43 49 51,9 54,2 56Turkey 24,4 26,1 23 30 28,1 27,6 26Kosovo (under United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244/99) : : 52 57 49 50,6 50

:=not available p=provisional e=estimated Source of Data: EurostatLast update: 27.01.2017Date of extraction: 30 Jan 2017 17:29:21 CET Hyperlink to the table: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tet00004General Disclaimer of the EC website: http://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htmShort Description: This indicator is the value of imports of goods and services divided by the GDP in current prices.Code: tet00004


Anexa nr. 4Export to import ratio

geo\time 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2013EU (28 countries) 1,04 1,03 1,01 1,01 1,02 1,05 1,07EU (27 countries) 1,04 1,03 1,01 1,01 1,02 1,05 1,07Belgium 1,08 1,07 1,05 1,01 1,03 1,01 1,02Bulgaria 0,85 0,82 0,78 0,74 0,97 0,96 0,99Czech Republic 0,98 1,01 1,05 1,04 1,05 1,08 1,09Denmark 1,14 1,12 1,07 1,06 1,12 1,1 1,11Germany 1,14 1,15 1,14 1,15 1,13 1,13 1,14Estonia 0,91 0,91 0,88 0,95 1,09 0,99 1,01Ireland 1,22 1,22 1,14 1,12 1,23 1,29 1,28Greece 0,61 0,69 0,67 0,62 0,71 0,85 0,92Spain 0,93 0,87 0,81 0,82 0,93 1,02 1,08France 1,06 1,02 0,96 0,93 0,92 0,93 0,93Croatia 0,83 0,87 0,86 0,84 0,99 1,01 1,02Italy 1,04 1,03 0,97 0,97 0,93 1,04 1,09Cyprus 0,97 0,95 0,93 0,8 0,87 0,93 1,03Latvia 0,81 0,74 0,68 0,76 0,98 0,94 0,97Lithuania 0,9 0,88 0,85 0,83 0,97 1,01 1,01Luxembourg 1,16 1,19 1,22 1,2 1,22 1,2 1,23Hungary 0,97 0,95 0,99 1,01 1,07 1,08 1,09Malta 1,05 0,97 0,95 0,98 0,99 1,05 1,06Netherlands 1,11 1,12 1,12 1,12 1,11 1,11 1,13Austria 1,11 1,08 1,1 1,11 1,09 1,06 1,09Poland 0,89 0,94 0,96 0,91 0,97 1,01 1,05Portugal 0,77 0,77 0,78 0,76 0,8 0,98 1,03Romania 0,86 0,8 0,73 0,7 0,86 0,9 0,99Slovenia 1,02 0,98 0,99 0,96 1,02 1,07 1,09Slovakia 0,91 0,96 0,95 0,97 1 1,06 1,07Finland 1,3 1,2 1,12 1,09 1,03 0,98 1Sweden 1,18 1,22 1,19 1,14 1,14 1,14 1,14United Kingdom 0,91 0,9 0,92 0,93 0,93 0,94 0,95Iceland : : : : : : :Liechtenstein : : : : : : :Norway 1,48 1,47 1,61 1,58 1,42 1,48 1,38Switzerland 1,17 1,18 1,19 1,26 1,26 1,25 1,24Montenegro : : : : : : :Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, the : : : : : : :Albania : : : : : : :Serbia : : : : : : :Turkey : : : : : : :

:=not available Source of Data: EurostatLast update: 24.11.2016Date of extraction: 30 Jan 2017 17:30:01 CETHyperlink to the table: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tet000General Disclaimer of the EC website: http://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htmShort Description:This indicator is the value of export of goods and services divided by the imports of goods and services. Values higher than one indicate a positive trade balance whereas values smaller than one indicate a negative trade balance. Code: tet00011


ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE INTERNATIONAL TRADE ON ECONOMIC

GROWTH IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

Assoc. prof. M d lina-Gabriela ANGHEL PhD ([email protected])

„Artifex” University of Bucharest Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD ([email protected])

Bucharest University of Economic Studies / „Artifex” University of BucharestGeorgiana NI PhD Student ([email protected])


Abstract In this article, the authors sought to analyze the correlation between international trade and economic growth. Based on Eurostat data series on GDP per capita, import, export and export coverage, the correlation between these statistical variables was analyzed. The analysis was made on the whole of the European Union, but also on each country. Existing correlations and hierarchy of the Member States of the European Union were highlighted by the value of the mentioned indicators. The Eurostat data series on these indicators are set out in the annexes. Finally, we used the simple and multiple regression model to deepen the analysis. Keywords: international trade, economic growth, export, import, correlation JEL ClassiÞ cation: F44, P33

Introduction In this article, it started from the fact that a surplus in the production of goods and services implies an export that is beneÞ cial for the country in question. It is also considered that the restriction of material and Þ nancial resources in the attempt of macroeconomic harmonization requires import. Of course, the difference between exports and imports is the net export, which may be negative and is a deÞ cit or may be positive and expresses a surplus. The authors present broadly the actual economic activity and then focus on analyzing prospecting, forecasting of macroeconomic activity. In all these situations, we analyze the concrete elements that they synthesize in mathematical functions, starting from the system of balances existing between the structural elements of the national economy. On this basis, we analyze material balances, trade balance and external balance of payments, formalizing the mathematical equations that make sense to these analyzes and interpretations. The balance of links between branches is an important model, which, in the structure of the synthetic table with the four quadrants, also includes the elements of import and export. These can be used


to establish the static elements on which to predict the international economic relations of the country. In the context, the econometric-mathematical relations underlying these analyzes and interpretations are presented. In order to further highlight the situation, for each state, but especially for Romania, because this is the objective of the analysis, we have resorted to some econometric models to highlight in the case of Romania and some other states, which is the evolution and Chosen, which will be the trend of evolution in the future. These econometric models, mainly simple or multiple linear regression, give regression parameters that are usable in forecasting the outlook for the evolution of macroeconomic indicators that we discussed in a country for all countries, ie the 28/27 states. In the present case, we have more to summarize what is Romania’s share and perspective as a member of the European Union.

Literature review Amiti and Weinstein (2011) develop on the correlation exports and Þ nancial shocks. Amiti, Itskhoki, Konings (2014) analyze the exchange rate as inß uenced by importers and exporters. Staiger and Sykes (2011) discuss on the regulation of international commerce. Anghel, Manole, Stoica (2016) evaluate, by econometric methods, the interdependence between direct foreign investments and import. Anghelache and Anghel (2016) is a reference work in econometrics. Harrison, McLaren and McMillan (2011) analyze the perspectives on trade and inequity. Konya (2006) present a study based on Granger causality between exports and economic growth. Anghelache, Anghelache, Anghel (2016) study the evolution of Romania’s foreign trade, studies on the same topic, but for different time horizons, were presented by Anghelache, Manole, Sacal (2014), Anghelache, Anghelache, Panait and Jweida (2016), Anghelache et.al. (2014), Anghelache and Manole (2012). Karacaovalia and Limão (2008) develop on trade liberalization in the European Union. Melitz (2003) studies the inß uence of trade on aggregate productivity of the industry. Nguyen (2012) develops on uncertainty related to demand within the foreign commerce process. Soderbery (2015) discusses on import supply and elasticity of demand. Chor and Manova (2012) have evaluated the international trade during the recent economic crisis, Eaton, Kortum, Neiman and Romalis (2016) approach a close topic. Anghelache, Anghelache and Dumbrav (2009) present a structural analysis of the international commerce. Hummels (2007) develops on the impact of globalization on transportation costs and international trade. Anghelache and Anghel (2014) present the instruments and concepts of modeling in economics. Bernard, Jensen, Redding and Schott (2012) study the correlation of the Þ rm heterogeneity with the international trade. Hill and Smith (2011) describe the international relations in the European context. Kehoea, Pujolàsd, Ruhle (2016)


analyze the topic of the opportunity costs in foreign trade activity. Büthe and Milner (2008) discuss on attracting foreign investments by encouraging trade agreements, as a policy issue in developing countries. Anghelache (2008) discusses on the international trade statistics. Fajgelbaum, Grossman and Helpman (2011) analyze the correlation between income distribution and international trade. Caron, Fally and Markusen (2014) analyze the match between production and preferences in the international trade activity. Goos, Manning and Salomons (2009) analyze the polarization of jobs in Europe.

Methodology research and data The authors note that the import-export and cooperation exchanges within the European Union place some countries down the rankings down by this synthetic indicator of the most tangible results, and because national economies have been disorganized and reorganized more heavily, Þ nancial resources are Limited, and the industrial development standard provides them with much less participation in European economic cooperation. Interesting in the study based on this indicator, gross domestic product / capita is how these countries evolved from 2004 to 2015. However, European Union member states have had positive results for this indicator, although they have been experiencing a decline in this indicator since 2007. Thus, Ireland with a gross domestic product / capita of 41,700 euro in 2008 had a declining trend in 2009, 2010, 2011 when gross domestic product growth per capita was resumed, but at a slower pace until 2013. Norway also has a resource with Þ nancial capacity and especially with the large oil and gas resources In the North Sea, has stagnated and decreased in the period 2008-2010 as well as the other countries, Switzerland and Luxembourg. In order to be enlightening, we conducted the study based on the share of exports in gross domestic product as well as imports made in these markets. Finally, it is not to be neglected that the EU Member States must carefully analyze the relationship between exports and imports or, more precisely, the way they cover their exports through exports. In this situation there are even countries with remarkable results such as: Luxembourg, Malta, Ireland, Slovakia, the great economic and industrial powers, Germany, France, Great Britain, but especially countries with lower economic potential such as Turkey, Albania. Interesting is Britain’s slightly unexpected position, which accounts for only 27.6% of total exports of Gross Domestic Product. We Þ nd that these states are those with a lower population, have resources and are primarily involved in the multinationals they have in their territory or in which they participate to carry out cooperative, service or exchange work Active in the case of imports for exports.


Therefore, based on export / import indicators, we can assess whether a country consumes more than it produces or produces more than its consumption, or, in other words, the way in which that country participates in intra-Community trade in goods and services. Others who are less involved in European cooperation and exchanges as producers / exporters will feel this lesser participation in intra-Community trade in goods and services. That is why, from the synthesizing tables as well as from some graphical representations, it is very clear how Romania as well as other EU member states were at the center of attention from this point of view or suffered from Many causes.In order to deepen the study based on the analysis of the macroeconomic indicators of the European Union member states, we also used the econometric models to highlight the evolution of the economy of these states in the next period. For example, we used straight-line regression, for which we calculated the ratio between gross domestic product and export. The function used is that of the straight line, which Þ nally revealed that the statistical tests used give some results. The model used was not for the calculation of the macroeconomic results indicators, but also for the analysis of the outlook of the macroeconomic evolution trend. We also used a multiple regression where gross domestic product correlated with imports, exports, and export import coverage. The data showed a positive inß uence of all three factors on gross domestic product growth and consequently on gross domestic product per capita. Data are presented in a linear linear analysis and multiple linear regression. All in all, it points out that intra-Community trade is a growth factor for the gross domestic product of each member country of the European Union.

Gross Domestic Product series statistics

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000

Series: GDPC

Sample 2005 2015

Observations 11

Mean 6336.364

Median 6600.000

Maximum 8100.000

Minimum 3800.000

Std. Dev. 1254.012

Skewness -0.706302

Kurtosis 2.821429




The series statistics show that the Gross Domestic Product per capita of Romania has oscillated between a minimum of 3800 euro and a maximum of 8100 euro. The median value is 6600 for the interval analyzed. EWGDP series statistics.

The export weight in the Gross Domestic Product series statistics

0

1

2

3

25.0 27.5 30.0 32.5 35.0 37.5 40.0 42.5

Series: EWGDP

Sample 2005 2015

Observations 11

Mean 34.27273

Median 32.90000

Maximum 41.20000

Minimum 26.90000

Std. Dev. 5.288684

Skewness -0.017052

Kurtosis 1.607823



The export weight in the Gross Domestic Product is characterized by a minimum value of 26.9%, while the maximum leve lis 41,2%. The median recorded was 32,9% for the 11 observations included in our study.

Correlogram EWGDP – GDP

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

EWGDP GDPC


Parameter estimation regression model



Date: 04/24/17 Time: 13:31

Sample: 2005 2015


GDPC =C(1) + C(2) * EWGDP


C(1) 2019.412 2319.718 0.870542 0.4066

C(2) 125.9588 66.96316 1.881016 0.0927








The estimation of the regression model shows a relatively weak link between the independent variable and the GDP/capita. The low values of R-squared and Adjusted R-squared tests show that the model can explain the variation of GDP/capita through the evolution of export weight in GDP in an amount of 20%. The increase by 1 percentage point of the export weight should lead to a growth of GDP/capita by almost 126 euro. To be noted, the elevated value of the free term, referring the inß uence of other factors not included at this stage in the model, this value is some 15 times greater than the regression coefÞ cient C(2).

Evolution of indicators during 2005-2015YEAR 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

GDPC 3800 4600 6000 6900 5900 6300 6600 6700 7200 7600 8100

EWGDP 32,9 32,1 29,1 26,9 27,4 32,3 36,8 37,5 39,7 41,2 41,1

IWGDP 43 44 43,4 40,2 33,8 38,4 42,4 42,4 40,5 41,6 41,7

WIE 0,76 0,73 0,68 0,7 0,84 0,86 0,88 0,9 0,99 0,98 1,01

Dataset for the Romanian economy


Evolution of the Gross Domestic per capita and its factorial variables, in Romania,during 2005-2015

* in hundred of euro per capita

Correlation between the dependent variable and the independent ones

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

GDPC EWGDP

IWGDP WIE


Parameter estimation regression model



Date: 04/24/17 Time: 13:53

Sample: 2005 2015


GDPC = C(1) + C(2)*EWGDP + C(3)* IWGDP + C(4)*WIE


C(1) -44963.99 26846.74 -1.674840 0.1379

C(2) -1185.379 676.0788 -1.753315 0.1230

C(3) 1062.107 627.7116 1.692031 0.1345

C(4) 56957.99 28545.02 1.995374 0.0862








The multiple regression model reveals that all factors have a signiÞ cant inß uence on the Gross Domestic Product per capita. The statistical tests of the model provide a moderate level of conÞ dence in the estimation, as the variation of the dependent variable can be explained through the evolutions of the three regressors in some 50% manner. The weight of export in the GDP has a negative inß uence, which is also sizable in the scope of our analysis. The increase of export contribution measured through this variable by 1 percentage point will produce a decrease of GDP/capita by 1185 euros. We can observe that the other two factors have a positive inß uence, with the coverage of imports by exports being the most signiÞ cant. However, the positive impact posed by the modiÞ cation of the last two factors is counterbalanced by the inß uence of other factors, not included in this study, which have a major and negative effect on the modiÞ cation of GDP per capita, as indicated by the level of the C(1) coefÞ cient.

Conclusion In this article, the authors emphasized the establishment of external economic and Þ nancial relations and the way in which they resist macroeconomic outcomes. From this point of view, the activity of forecasting (forecasting)


external economic relations has a special aspect. There has been a discussion on the content of the forecasting activity of the international economic relations as well as on the requirements of the prospecting and forecasting activity of the economic and social activity. The way in which the aspects in this article are presented clearly show the possibility to analyze and interpret the effect of a country’s imports and exports on the Þ nal results, materialized in gross domestic product, as the indicator of the broadest and most complex presentation of the results Macroeconomic developments over a period of time. By trying to systematise the conditions for achieving this international economic activity, we meet the quality criterion of a national economy. It is commonly known that only specialization in production and research requires wider international cooperation. Of course, in the European Union 27/28 there are areas in which exchanges or cooperation in economic community projects can be deepened. The exchanges are governed by the Directive of the European Economic Union on the free movement of goods and services. In this context, without the unilateral will of a member country, they are divided into two groups of countries. In this article, we interpret the existing databases provided by Eurostat, but in order to clarify the role of intra-Community trade in goods and services, we have recourse to econometric models that are suitable for use in this respect. The authors consider that the study, limited, of course, can be deepened, and not only on the basis of the example presented in this article, but also by the possibility of studying econometric models on each country, complex studies using statistical and econometric methods Indices, chronological series method, graphical representation method) or using analytical econometric-mathematical models that quantify the evolution, the inß uence of the factors and in this way it is possible that by extrapolation one can predict the trend of evolution of the European Union mainly as the trend of evolution of each country. Of course, in this study, it was efÞ cient to make an analysis based on the econometric model used and on the evolution of the European Union as a whole, taking into account the three indicators (export, import and export coverage of exports) at European level and Then comparing the regression parameters resulting from the analysis of the Eropean Union, we can determine what was and is the evolution trend of Romania or any other state.

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Annex no. 1Gross domestic product at market prices

At current prices Current prices, euro per capita geo\time 2004 2007 2010 2013 2014 2015 EU (28 countries) 22500 26000 25500 26700 27600 28900 Euro area (changing composition) 25900 29100 28900 29700 30100 30800 Euro area (19 countries) 25000 28400 28500 29500 30000 30800 Belgium 28700 32500 33500 35300 35900 36600 Bulgaria 2700 4300 5200 5800 5900 (p) 6300 (p)Czech Republic 9400 13400 14900 15000 14900 15800 Denmark 37500 42700 43800 46100 47000 47800 Germany 27900 31000 32100 35000 36100 37100 Estonia 7100 12100 11000 14300 15000 15400 Ireland 38400 44800 36700 39200 41900 55100 Greece 17700 21100 20300 16500 (p) 16300 (p) 16200 (p)Spain 20100 23900 23200 22000 22300 (p) 23200 (p)France 27300 30400 30800 32100 32300 (p) 32800 (p)Croatia 7800 10200 10500 10200 10200 10400 Italy 25000 27400 26800 26500 26700 27000 Cyprus 19100 22900 23300 21000 20600 20800 (p)Latvia 5200 10300 8500 11300 11800 12300 Lithuania 5400 9000 9000 11800 12500 12900 Luxembourg 60300 76500 78700 85000 88300 89900 Hungary 8300 10100 9800 10300 10600 11100 Malta 12100 14200 15900 18000 19700 21400 Netherlands 32200 37400 38000 38900 39300 (p) 40000 (p)Austria 29600 34000 35200 38000 38700 39400 Poland 5400 8200 9400 10300 (e) 10700 (e) 11200 (e)Portugal 14500 16600 17000 16300 16600 17300 (e)Romania 2900 6000 6300 7200 7600 8100 (p)Slovenia 13900 17400 17700 17400 18100 18700 Slovakia 6400 10400 12400 13700 14000 14500 Finland 30300 35300 34900 37400 37600 38200 Sweden 34200 39000 39400 45400 44600 45600 United Kingdom 32100 36500 29200 32000 35000 39600 Iceland 37700 50000 31500 36000 39600 45700 Liechtenstein : : : : : : Norway 46400 62200 66200 77400 73200 67100 Switzerland 42600 46000 55900 63700 64700 (p) 73000 (p)Montenegro : : : : : : Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, the 2300 3000 3500 3900 (e) : : Albania : : : : : : Serbia 2700 4000 4100 4800 4700 4700 Turkey : : : : : : Kosovo (under United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244/99) : : : : : :

:=not available p=provisional e=estimated b=break in time series Source of Data: Eurostat; Last update: 27.01.2017; Date of extraction: 30 Jan 2017 17:25:08 CETHyperlink to the table: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tec00001General Disclaimer of the EC website: http://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htm Short Description: GDP (gross domestic product) is an indicator for a nation´s economic situation. It reß ects the total value of all goods and services produced less the value of goods and services used for intermediate consumption in their production. Expressing GDP in PPS (purchasing power standards) eliminates differences in price levels between countries, and calculations on a per head basis allows for the comparison of economies signiÞ cantly different in absolute size.Code: tec00001


Annex no. 2Exports of goods and services in % of GDP

geo\time 2005 2007 2010 2013 2014 2015EU (28 countries) 35,1 37,9 38,6 42,8 43,1 44Euro area (changing composition) 35,8 39,1 38,9 43,8 44,6 46,2Euro area (19 countries) 36,2 39,5 39 44 44,7 46,2Belgium 73,5 77,5 76,4 81,8 83,2 82,9Bulgaria 42,9 52,4 50,2 64,7 65 64,1Czech Republic 62,3 66,6 66,2 76,9 82,5 83Denmark 47,5 51,5 50,5 54,8 54,5 55,2Germany 37,7 43 42,3 45,5 45,7 46,8Estonia 65,9 63,2 75,1 84,5 83,1 79,3Ireland 79,6 80,7 103,4 106 114 124Greece 21,3 22,5 22,1 30,4 32,5 31,9Spain 24,7 25,7 25,5 32,2 32,7 33,2France 26,4 27,1 26 28,6 28,9 30Croatia 39,3 39 37,7 43 46,4 50Italy 24,7 27,4 25,2 28,9 29,3 30,1Cyprus 55,7 53,3 50,2 58,7 62,2 61,2Latvia 43,2 38,5 53,7 60,3 59,6 59Lithuania 53,8 50,4 65,3 84 80,9 75,9Luxembourg 161 184,2 175,1 192 209 236Hungary 62,8 78,3 82,2 86 88,7 90,7Malta 104 129,5 153,3 157 149 143Netherlands 66,6 70,3 72 82 82,6 82,5Austria 48,6 52,5 51 53,2 53 53,1Poland 34,6 38,6 40,1 46,3 47,6 49,6Portugal 26,7 31 29,9 39,5 40,1 40,6Romania 32,9 29,1 32,3 39,7 41,2 41,1Slovenia 59,6 67,6 64,3 75,2 76,4 77,9Slovakia 72 83,3 76,3 93,8 91,8 93,5Finland 40,3 44 38,7 38,8 37,7 36,6Sweden 45,9 48,3 46,2 43,8 45 45,6United Kingdom 24,7 24,9 28,3 29,8 28,1 27,6Iceland 30,6 33,4 53,7 55,4 53,3 53,7Liechtenstein : : : : : :Norway 43,4 43,3 39,8 39,2 38,9 37,4Switzerland 53,9 61,6 64,2 72,3 64,9 62,9Montenegro : : 37 41,3 40,1 42,5Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, the 34,8 44,1 39,8 43,4 47,7 48,8

Albania 23 28,2 32,4 28,7 28,2 27,3Serbia 27,1 28,4 32,9 41,2 43,4 46,7Turkey 21 21,2 20,4 22,3 23,8 23,3:=not available p=provisional e=estimatedSource of Data: Eurostat; Last update: 27.01.2017; Date of extraction: 30 Jan 2017 17:28:17 CETHyperlink to the table:http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tet0000General Disclaimer of the EC website: http://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htmShort Description: This indicator is the value of exports of goods and services divided by the GDP in current prices.Code: tet00003


Annex no. 3Imports of goods and services in % of GDP

geo\time 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2014 2015EU (28 countries) 34,4 37,4 34 40 40,3 40,4 41Euro area (changing composition) 34,3 37,5 33 40 40,5 41,1 42Euro area (19 countries) 34,8 38,1 34 41 40,7 41,2 42Belgium 69,9 73,7 67 81 80,7 82,3 81Bulgaria 57,6 71,2 51 59 65,1 66 64Czech Republic 60 64,1 55 68 71,1 76,2 77Denmark 41,9 48,6 43 47 48,2 47,6 48Germany 32,7 36,4 33 40 39,5 39,1 39Estonia 71 72,1 56 81 82,5 79,5 75Ireland 68,7 72,5 80 84 87,3 95,9 92Greece 29,6 35 29 32 33,2 34,9 32Spain 29,7 31,7 24 29 29 30,2 31France 26,8 28,4 26 30 30,5 30,9 31Croatia 45,4 46,3 38 41 42,6 44,4 47Italy 24,8 27,8 23 29 26,6 26,5 27Cyprus 56,2 58 54 56 56,9 60,1 61Latvia 57,7 57,5 44 63 63,5 61,5 60Lithuania 61,1 63,5 54 78 82,7 79 77Luxembourg 137 152 137 147 161 177 203Hungary 65,1 77,6 71 81 79 81,7 82Malta 107 129 149 158 150 136 136Netherlands 57,9 61,4 56 69 71,3 71,7 72Austria 45,5 48,3 42 51 50,6 49,7 49Poland 35,7 42,1 38 45 44,4 46,1 47Portugal 35,8 38,6 34 39 38,5 39,9 40Romania 43 43,4 34 42 40,5 41,6 42Slovenia 60,2 68,9 55 69 69,6 68,9 69Slovakia 76,6 84,4 69 86 89,6 88,2 91Finland 36,4 39,2 34 40 39,7 38,6 37Sweden 38,7 41,3 39 42 39,3 40,7 41United Kingdom 27,4 27,5 29 32 32 30,1 29Iceland 42,5 42,5 41 49 47,5 47 46Liechtenstein : : : : : : :Norway 27,4 29,9 28 29 28,5 30 32Switzerland 46,7 50,3 50 57 60,2 53,1 51Montenegro : : : 64 61,4 60 61Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, the 51 62 54 66 61,5 64,9 65Albania 47,9 55 54 57 47 47,2 45Serbia 47,1 52,7 43 49 51,9 54,2 56Turkey 24,4 26,1 23 30 28,1 27,6 26Kosovo (under United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244/99) : : 52 57 49 50,6 50

:=not available p=provisional e=estimated Source of Data: EurostatLast update: 27.01.2017Date of extraction: 30 Jan 2017 17:29:21 CET Hyperlink to the table: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tet00004General Disclaimer of the EC website: http://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htmShort Description: This indicator is the value of imports of goods and services divided by the GDP in current prices.Code: tet00004


Annex no. 4Export to import ratio

geo\time 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2013EU (28 countries) 1,04 1,03 1,01 1,01 1,02 1,05 1,07EU (27 countries) 1,04 1,03 1,01 1,01 1,02 1,05 1,07Belgium 1,08 1,07 1,05 1,01 1,03 1,01 1,02Bulgaria 0,85 0,82 0,78 0,74 0,97 0,96 0,99Czech Republic 0,98 1,01 1,05 1,04 1,05 1,08 1,09Denmark 1,14 1,12 1,07 1,06 1,12 1,1 1,11Germany 1,14 1,15 1,14 1,15 1,13 1,13 1,14Estonia 0,91 0,91 0,88 0,95 1,09 0,99 1,01Ireland 1,22 1,22 1,14 1,12 1,23 1,29 1,28Greece 0,61 0,69 0,67 0,62 0,71 0,85 0,92Spain 0,93 0,87 0,81 0,82 0,93 1,02 1,08France 1,06 1,02 0,96 0,93 0,92 0,93 0,93Croatia 0,83 0,87 0,86 0,84 0,99 1,01 1,02Italy 1,04 1,03 0,97 0,97 0,93 1,04 1,09Cyprus 0,97 0,95 0,93 0,8 0,87 0,93 1,03Latvia 0,81 0,74 0,68 0,76 0,98 0,94 0,97Lithuania 0,9 0,88 0,85 0,83 0,97 1,01 1,01Luxembourg 1,16 1,19 1,22 1,2 1,22 1,2 1,23Hungary 0,97 0,95 0,99 1,01 1,07 1,08 1,09Malta 1,05 0,97 0,95 0,98 0,99 1,05 1,06Netherlands 1,11 1,12 1,12 1,12 1,11 1,11 1,13Austria 1,11 1,08 1,1 1,11 1,09 1,06 1,09Poland 0,89 0,94 0,96 0,91 0,97 1,01 1,05Portugal 0,77 0,77 0,78 0,76 0,8 0,98 1,03Romania 0,86 0,8 0,73 0,7 0,86 0,9 0,99Slovenia 1,02 0,98 0,99 0,96 1,02 1,07 1,09Slovakia 0,91 0,96 0,95 0,97 1 1,06 1,07Finland 1,3 1,2 1,12 1,09 1,03 0,98 1Sweden 1,18 1,22 1,19 1,14 1,14 1,14 1,14United Kingdom 0,91 0,9 0,92 0,93 0,93 0,94 0,95Iceland : : : : : : :Liechtenstein : : : : : : :Norway 1,48 1,47 1,61 1,58 1,42 1,48 1,38Switzerland 1,17 1,18 1,19 1,26 1,26 1,25 1,24Montenegro : : : : : : :Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, the : : : : : : :Albania : : : : : : :Serbia : : : : : : :Turkey : : : : : : :

:=not available Source of Data: EurostatLast update: 24.11.2016Date of extraction: 30 Jan 2017 17:30:01 CETHyperlink to the table: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tet000General Disclaimer of the EC website: http://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htmShort Description:This indicator is the value of export of goods and services divided by the imports of goods and services. Values higher than one indicate a positive trade balance whereas values smaller than one indicate a negative trade balance. Code: tet00011


Analiza evolu iei for ei de munc în Uniunea European i a costului acesteia

Prof. univ. dr. Dan CRUCERU ([email protected])

Universitatea „Artifex” din Bucure tiProf. univ. dr. Dumitru MARINAcademia de Studii Economice din Bucure ti Prof. univ. dr. Constantin ANGHELACHE ([email protected])

Academia de Studii Economice, Bucure ti / Universitatea „Artifex”, Bucure tiConf. univ. dr. M d lina-Gabriela ANGHEL ([email protected])

Universitatea „Artifex” din Bucure ti

Abstract În Uniunea European se pune problema analizei pie ei for ei de munc . Prin directivele Uniunii Europene s-a aprobat libera circula ie a persoanelor, deci i a for ei de munc în Uniunea European . Este important de analizat pe termen scurt, dar i lung, în perspectiv , care este pia a for ei de munc în Uniunea European , inând seama de situa ia Þ ec rei ri, dar i a celorlalte ri împreun . În acest articol, autorii au efectuat o analiz a

evolu iei for ei de munc în Uniunea European i statele membre. Studiul are la baz datele publicate de Eurostat i const în a aprecia evolu ia for ei de munc în perioada 2005-2015 s-a efectuat apoi analiza evolu iei for ei de munc în România în aceea i perioad . În acest context s-a efectuat i analiza omajului, precum i a popula iei ocupate. Desigur, aceast analiz s-a axat i pe studiul comparat al salariului mediu net, precum i al celui minim în rile membre ale Uniunii Europene.

Cuvinte cheie: ocupare, pia a muncii, salariu, omaj, venit minim ClasiÞ carea JEL: J21, J31

Introducere Studiul efectuate este structurat pe prezentarea datelor privind popula ia activ , popula ia ocupat , num rul de salaria i i rata omajului. Sunt exprimate concluzii privind analiza comparativ în rile membre ale Uniunii Europene, precum i în Þ ecare ar . Se realizeaz , în continuare, analiza costului muncii i, în acest context, nivelul i evolu ia veniturilor, a salariilor i a nivelului minim salarial din Þ ecare ar . Interesant este i analiza pe structur de grupe de vârst în care se constat c cel mai afectat este vârsta tân r în care chiar i absolven ii î i g sesc locuri de munc , indiferent c acestea cer studii gimnaziale sau superioare.


A fost aplicat metoda reprezent rii graÞ ce pentru structura angaja ilor în Þ ecare dintre cele 28 de ri membre ale Uniunii Europene, pe cele trei grupe de vârst comparativ cu structura angaja ilor pe cele 28 de ri adic pe total Uniunea European . Un alt element interesant în ceea ce prive te nivelul de trai i standardul Þ ec reia dintre ri îl reprezint salariul minim acordat pe economie. În Uniunea European nu exist o directiv care are în centrul politicii sale dorin a de a ocupa locurile vacante în ideea de a folosi mai bine for a de munc , de a reduce fondul de omaj i de a crea unele posibilit i de cre tere a veniturilor medii i concomitent i veniturile totale brute.

Literature review Anghelache (2008) is a major contribution in the Þ eld of statistical analyses. The books of Anghelache (2007-2016) present a complex image on the economic status of Romania in the respective years, the author also describes the signiÞ cant macroeconomic evolutions, not least, the comprehensive and comparable datasets that support the analysis form themselves a valuable data source for comparative studies over the interval 2007-2016. Belo, Lin and Bazdresch (2014) discuss on the correlation between labor hiring, investments and stock return predictability. Klein and Ventura (2009) analyze the impact of labor movements in dynamic. Silva and Toledo (2009) evaluate the interdependence between labor turnover costs and the cyclical character of vacancies and unemployment. Krause and Uhlig (2012) discuss on the characteristics of the labor market in Germany under the effect of the crisis. French and Song (2014) describe the impact of disability insurance on the supply factor of the labor market. Anghelache, Manole, Anghel, and Sacal (2016) have analyzed the labor market of Romania. Behaghel, Blanchet, and Roger (2014) discuss on the retirement characteristics in the French labor market. Davis, Faberman, and Haltiwanger (2006) develop on the ß ow approach to labor markets. Donangelo (2014) analyzes the implications of mobility within the labor market on the pricing of assets. Kroft et.al. (2013) present the results of a Þ eld experiment on the labor market conditions. Sala, Soderstrom, and Trigari (2008) describe the properties of uncertainty-speciÞ c monetary policies by using a model with labor market frictions. Majlesi (2016) discuss some internal household social consequences deriving from the conditions and status of the labor force market. Daly, Hobijn, Sahin and. Valletta (2012) study the real evolution of the unemployment rate. Anghelache, Manole, Anghel and Ursache (2016) have studied, for Romania, the correlation between the evolution of the population and the situation on the labor force market. Moreno-Galbisa and Tritah (2016) present a study,


based on empirical evidence, about the impact of immigration labor markets subjected to friction. Poterba, Venti and Wise (2010) analyze the asset cost associated with poor health. Pitt, Rosenzweig, and Hassan (2012) discuss on the gender division of labor in a particular type of economy. Anghelache, Anghel and Dumitrescu (2016) evaluate the resources on the Romanian labor market. Petrosky-Nadeau and Wasmer (2013) discuss on the cyclical characteristic of volatility in the labor markets under the impact of friction within Þ nancial markets. Betermier, Jansson, Parlour, and Walden (2012) analyze the hedging mechanism oriented towards labor income risk. Bloom and Van Reenen (2007) present a comparative analysis of management practices. Burda and Hunt (2011) develop on the causes of recovery on the German labor market during the Great recession in the fourth decade of the 20th century. Chen, Kacperczyk and Ortiz-Molina (2011) discuss on the cost of equity, labor unions and operating ß exibility.

Metodologia cercet rii i date • For a de munc Vorbind de libera circula ie a persoanelor în Uniunea European , trebuie constat pe de o parte care este mi carea migratorie (imigrare i emigrare), i care este evolu ia ratei omajului i concret, în cifre absolute a num rului de omeri. Desigur, în Uniunea European s-a pus problema de la început a stimul rii recuper rii economice a rilor membre, Comisia European stabilind o strategie pân în anul 2020, în sensul de a stabili condi iile în care Uniunea European trebuie s se armonizeze, s se diminueze diferen ele dintre unele ri i într-un cuvânt s Þ e o situa ie în care Þ ecare ar în parte s prospere, iar toate la un loc s ini ieze proiecte, s realizeze

investi ii i intr-un cuvânt s creasc , pe cât posibil economia Þ ec rei ri, i pe acest fond s cresc i standardul de via al acestor ri. De exemplu

în Uniunea European s-a pus accentul ca statele membre s investeasc în cre terea for ei de munc tinere, preg tit la standadele actuale, i mai mult s se în eleag faptul c se pot stabili fonduri destinate for ei de munc . Un lucru esen ial în Uniunea European îl reprezint evolu ia for ei de munc . Datele pot Þ analizate din 2005 pân în 2015, pentru care avem date publicate de Eurostat, dar pe de alt parte se poate face i o analiz mai scurt , începând cu anul 2007 în conformitate cu capitolul For de munc stabilit prin tratatul de la Amsterdam. În 2015 în Uniunea European rata popula iei angajate cu vârsta cuprins între 20 i 64 de ani reprezenta 70,1% din totalul popula iei cuprins între aceste dou vârste. În anul 2008 s-a înregistrat o sc dere, iar apoi ajungând la 70,3%, iar apoi în anii 2012 i 2013 procentul a coborât la 68,4%. Desigur, aceast perspectiv este interesant i din punctul de vedere


al analizei situa iei din Uniunea European . Rezumativ, putem constata c în Uniunea European cu 28 de state rata salaria ilor cu vârsta cuprins între 20 i 64 de ani a fost de 70,1%. Procente mai ridicate au înregistrat Republica Ceha 74%, Danemarca 76,5%, Germania 78%, Estonia 76,5%, Lituania 73,3%, Olanda 76,4%, Austria 74,3%, Suedia 80,5% (cel mai înalt procent), Marea Britanie 76,8% i Islanda, Norvegia, Eleve ia au avut procente de 86,5%, respectiv 79,1% i 82,8%. România din 2005 i pân în 2015 a înregistrat ponderi de ocupare a popula iei cuprins între 20 i 64 de ani de 63,6% în 2005, 64,4% în 2008, 64,8% în 2012, 64,7% în 2013, 65,7% în 2014 i 66% în 2015. În anul 2016 procentul estefoarte apropiat, adic 66,2%. Iat c România a înregistrat o tendin de cre tere, dar destul de nesemniÞ cativ în compara ie cu celelalte ri membre ale Uniunii Europene. Desigur exist i ri care au o ocupare mult mai redus , cum ar Þ Grecia 54,9%, Croa ia 60,5%, Italia 60,5% sau Macedonia i Turcia care sunt ri luate i ele în considera ie în analiza Uniunii Europene cu 51,9%, respectiv 53,9%. Aceast ocupare a for ei de munc în vârsta apt de a muncii, de la 20 la 64 de ani, s-au înregistrat datele care sunt prezentate în tabelul nr. 1.


Rata de ocupare a for ei de munc , grupa de vârst 20-64, 2005-2015 (%)

Tabelul nr. 1

(1) 2005–13: excluding overseas departments and territories.(2) 2015: break in series.(3) 2008: break in series.(4) 2014: break in series.Source: Eurostat - Key Þ gures on Europe 2016, pag. 77


Din punct de vedere al analizei ocup rii for ei de munc în structur , pe sexe, se constat c la b rba i întâlnim un procent mai ridicat, iar la femei un procent mai redus. Exist posibilitata de a întreprinde o analiz i în ceea ce prive te ocuparea for ei de munc în vârst , adic în ultima grup de vârst , care pe total Uniune European a reprezentat 53,3% în anul 2015. Un alt element al analizei ocup rii sau al num rului de salaria i îl reprezint situa ia acestora dup nivelul de preg tire. Astfel, rata salaria ilor cu studii complete, având cel pu in un nivel de preg tire a fost de 80,7%. Popula ia cu preg tire secundar sau post-secundar a fost de 70,7%. Analiza se poate adânci i prin interpretarea nivelului de ocupare a for ei de munc , pe cele trei grupe considerate semniÞ cative, pentru a avea un studiu corect al for ei de munc . Astfel lu m în calcul grupa de vârst între 15 i 24 de ani, a doua grup 25-54 de ani i a treia, grupa 55-64 de ani. Constat m c ponderea cea mai ridicat o de in persoanele cuprinse în grupa de vârst 25-54 de ani, apoi popula ia cuprins între 55 i 64 de ani i în ultimul rând popula ia cuprins între 15 i 24 de ani.

Ratele de ocupare pe grupe de vârst , 2015 (%)GraÞ cul nr. 1

Note: The Þ gure is ranked on the overall employment rate.

Source: Eurostat - Key Þ gures on Europe 2016, pag. 78

Se constat un nivel de ocupare prin angajare în munc destul de rezonabil.


• omajul Un element destul de important al folosirii for ei de munc apt de a muncii îl reprezint studiul omajului. Pe total Uniune European în 2014, rata omajului era de 10,2%, sc zând în 2015 la 9,4%. Un num r de state înregistreaz o pondere ridicat a num rului de omeri printre acestea situându-se Spania cu procente destul de ridicate i în contrast cu aceasta, Luxemburg cu doar 0,4 procente.

Rata omajului, 2005-2015 (%)GraÞ cul nr. 2


Analizând structura omajului pe cel dou sexe, constat m între 2005 i 2015 num rul omerilor în general a fost mai mic la b rba i. Astfel, în 2005

au fost 8,4% la b rba i i 9,8% la femei, a sc zut în 2008 la 6,6% la b rba i i 7,5% la femei, în 2012 a crescut din nou Þ ind de 10,4% la b rba i i 10,5%

la femei, 2013 10,8% la b rba i i 10,9% la femei, în 2014 10,1% la b rba i i 10,3 la femei i 2015 9,3% la b rba i i 9,5% la femei. Pe grupe de vârst ,

popula ie pân la 25 de ani, întrre 2005 i 2015 s-a înregistrat în mod constant o rat a omajului foarte ridicat , Þ ind de 19% în 2005, sc zând în 2008 i ajungând la 15,9%, în 2012 23,3%, în 2013 23,7%, 22,2% în 2014, iar în 2015 sc zând u or i ajungând la 20,4%. Grupa de vârst cuprins între 25 i 74 de ani, luând în discu ie i persoanele care au atins vârsta de pensionare dar care mai lucreaz , constat m c procentul acestora s-a situat între 5,9% în 2008 (cea mai sc zut rat a omajului) i 9,5% în 2013 (cea mai ridicat rat a omajului la aceast grup de vârst ). În 2015 rata omajului la aceast categorie a fost de 8,3%. Pe termen lung, rata omajului la b rba i a fost cuprins între 2,4% în 2008 i 5,1% în 2013, la femei între 2,8% în 2008 i 5,1% în 2013.


Rata omajului, UE-28, anii selecta i (%)Tabelul nr. 2


• Salariile i costul muncii Un aspect deosebit de important al analizei situa iei for ei de munc îl reprezint salariile pl tite i într-un cuvânt, costul muncii. În Uniunea European , 28 de state costul orar al muncii a fost de 25,3 euro/or iar pentru Uniunea European -primele 19 state a fost de 29,5 euro/or . Desigur, costul for ei de munc este diferit, prin salariul care se pl te te i aceasta rezult foarte clar din costul estimat al orei de lucru în anul 2015 pentru toate statele membre ale Uniunii Europene. În graÞ cul urm tor se prezint situa ia salariilor i veniturilor precum i alte costuri ale muncii pentru Þ ecare ar în parte.

Costurile orare estimate ale for ei de munc , 2015 (EUR)GraÞ cul nr. 3

Note: Enterprises with 10 or more employees. NACE Rev. 2 Sections B to S excluding O.

Provisional data.



Constat m c un nivel ridicat al veniturilor i costului total îl au statele Danemarca, Belgia, Suedia, Luxemburg, Fran a, Olanda, Finlanda, Austria, Germania, Irlanda, Italia i Regatul Unit al Marii Britanii. Pe ultimele 5 pozi ii cu venituri deosebit de mici, Bulgaria, România, Lituania, Letonia i Ungaria. Nivelul sc zut al acestor venituri se datoreaz st rii economiei,

starea de cre tere i de sc dere a acestor ri care au în continuare suÞ cient de multe probleme economice.

• Salariul minim În ianuarie 2016, 22 de ri din 28 de ri membre ale Uniunii Europene aveau stabilit un salariu minim pe economie. Danemarca, Italia, Cipru, Austria, Finlanda i Suedia nu aveau aceast prevedere. În ianuarie 2016 salariul minim lunar avea o valoare variabil , cel mai mic avându-l Bulgaria (125 euro/lun ), iar cel mai mare se inregistra în Luxemburg (1923 euro/lun ). Desigur, se pune problema care este raportul între rata salariului minim pe economie i rata calculat la paritatea puterii de cump rare. Din acest punct de vedere, salariul minim pe economie exprimat în paritatea puterii de cump rar ca termen, era de 445 pentru România i 1597 indice al parit ii puterii de cump rare în Luxemburg. În 2014-2015 salariul minim pe economie reprezenta 33% din venitul brut pe economie pân la 50% în situa ia unor ri aß ate într-o situa ie mai delicat . În graÞ cul de mai jos este prezentat situa ia salariului minim pe economie, pentru acele ri care îl calculeaz , rezultând c România, Bulgaria se situau i la acest indicator pe ultimele 2 locuri.

Salariul minim, ianuarie 2016 (PPS pe lun )GraÞ cul nr. 4



De asemenea, re ine aten ia faptul c salariul minim pe economie exprimat ca propor ie din veniturile brute medii lunare arat o clasiÞ care care în termeni generali seam n cu propor ia sau clasiÞ carea dup indicele parit ii puterii de cump rare. În ceea ce prive te propor ia venitului minim în valoarea medie a veniturilor brute lunare, în frunte sunt ri cum ar Þ rile occidentale, iar o propor ie mai mare întâlnim ri ca Grecia, Slovenia, care într-adev r au ceva diÞ cult i în a g si posibilit ile certe pe care s le utilizeze în vederea unui standard adecvat.

• Locurile de munc vacante Pornind de la aceste elemente, rata omajului, num rul total al omerilor înregistra i care primesc ajutor, dorin a rilor de a face eforturi pentru a absorbi o parte din omaj, de a crea locuri noi de munc pentru investi ii o semniÞ ca ie o are i locurile vacante ofertate la nivelul economiilor na ionale. În Uniunea European , pân în anul 2007 a existat un procent de 2,2% din locuri care erau vacante i care ar Þ trebuit s Þ e ocupate. În ultimii ani, rata locurilor vacante ofertate pentru ocupare a urmat un trend constant, în sensul c în 2009 era de 1,4%, în 2010 s-a men i5nut tot la 1,4%, mergând pân în 2011, 2012, 2013 i chiar 2014 cu aceea i valoare. Rata locurilor vacante în Uniunea European s-a men inut înalt în Germania (2,9%), Malta (2,5%), Marea Britanie (2,3%) sau Belgia (2,2%). O pondere redus a locurilor vacante (mai mic de 1%) s-a întâlnit în 15 din cele 28 state membre ale Uniunii Europene. Cel mai redus nivel s-a înregistrat în 2014 în Letonia (0,4%). În graÞ cul urm tor sunt prezentate procentele înregistrate de rile membre ale Uniunii Europene în ceea ce prive te locurile de munc vacante (neocupate).

Rata locurilor vacante, 2014 (%)GraÞ cul nr. 5



Exist i un graÞ c a locurilor vacante în perioada 2004-2014 care exprim aceea i tendin , a unui trend, în medie pe Uniunea European constant i nealarmant, într-o perspectiv a locurilor de munc necesare în economia Uniunii Europene.

Rata locurilor vacante, 2004–2014 (%)GraÞ cul nr. 6


Concluzii Din datele supuse studiului rezult analiza evolu iei for ei de munc în Uniunea European per total, precum i pe Þ ecare ar membr . Ca urmare a analizei efectuate, se desprind o serie de concluzii teoretice i practice. Trebuie s concluzion m c în Uniunea european exist preocuparea de a se ocup cât mai bine popula ia cu capacitatea de a munci, existând de asemenea i preocuparea ca popula ia din grupa a treia ca surs de munc activ s Þ e cât mai bine ocupate, i efectul migra iei între rile europene s nu constituie un fenomen de cre tere alarmant a omajului în unele ri. Desigur sunt multe aspecte de discutat, cum ar Þ situa ia Spaniei cu un omaj ridicat dar care accept popula ie care vine în c utare de locuri de munc substan ial , dar aceasta constituie de fapt pia a muncii în Uniunea European , care creeaz posibilit i i care trebuie ocupat de cei care au unele probleme. Studiul poate Þ adâncit i prin utilizarea unor modele econometrice prin care se calculeaz parametrii de regresie pentru estimarea evolu iei acestor indicatori.


BibliograÞ e 1. Anghelache, C. (2007-2016). Colec ia de volume România. Starea economic ,

Editura Economic , Bucure ti 2. Anghelache, C., Manole, A., Anghel, M.G. and Sacal , C. (2016). The Analyse of

the Labor Force Resources Market. Romanian Statistical Review, Supplement, no. 12, pp. 132-138

3. Anghelache, C., Manole, A., Anghel, M.G. and Ursache, A. (2016). Correlation between the Evolution of the Population and the Labor Market. Romanian Statistical Review, Supplement, Issue 3, pp. 102-111

4. Anghelache, C., Anghel, M.G. and Dumitrescu, D. (2016). Analysis of the evolution of human resources in Romania. Annals of the „Constantin Brâncu i” University of Târgu Jiu, Economy Series, Special Issue, volume II, Annals of the „Constantin Brâncu i” University of Târgu Jiu, Economy Series, Special Issue, volume II/2016, „ c d mic Brâncu i” Publish r, pp. 179-184

5. Anghelache C. (2008). Tratat de statistic teoretic i economic , Editura Economic

6. Behaghel, L., Blanchet, D., and Roger, M. (2014). Retirement, early retirement and disability: explaining labor force participation after 55 in France, NBER Working Paper No. 20030

7. Belo, F., Lin, X. and Bazdresch, S. (2014). Labor hiring, investment, and stock return predictability in the cross section. Journal of Political Economy, 122(1), 129-177

8. Betermier, S., Jansson, T., Parlour, C., and Walden, J. (2012). Hedging labor income risk. Journal of Financial Economics, 105(3), 622 639

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11. Chen, H.J., Kacperczyk, M. and Hernn, O.M. (2011). Labor unions, operating ß exibility, and the cost of equity. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 46, 25 – 58

12. Daly, M.., Hobijn, B., Sahin, A., and Valletta, R. (2012). A search and matching approach to labor markets: Did the natural rate of unemployment rise?. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 26 (3), 3–26

13. Davis, S., Faberman, J. and Haltiwanger, J. (2006). The ß ow approach to labor markets: New data sources and micro-macro links, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 20(3), 3 – 26

14. Donangelo, A. (2014) Labor mobility: implications for asset pricing. Journal of Finance, 68(3), 1321 – 1346

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ANALYSIS OF LABOR FORCE DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EUROPEAN

UNION AND ITS COST

Prof. Dan CRUCERU PhD ([email protected])

„Artifex” University of Bucharest Prof. Dumitru MARIN PhDBucharest University of Economic Studies Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD ([email protected])

Bucharest University of Economic Studies / „Artifex” University of BucharestAssoc. prof. M d lina-Gabriela ANGHEL PhD ([email protected])


Abstract In the European Union there is the issue of labor market analysis. European Union directives have approved the free movement of persons, and therefore of the workforce in the European Union. It is important to analyze in the short and long term, what is the labor market in the European Union, taking into account the situation of each country and of the other countries together. In this article, the authors conducted an analysis of labor force developments in the European Union and the Member States. The study is based on the data published by Eurostat and consists in assessing the evolution of the labor force in the period 2005-2015, then analyzed the evolution of the labor force in Romania during the same period. In this context, the analysis of unemployment as well as the employed population was carried out. Of course, this analysis also focused on the comparative study of net average wage and the lowest wage in the EU member countries. Keywords: employment, labor market, wage, unemployment, minimum income JEL ClassiÞ cation: J21, J31

Introduction The survey is structured on the data on active population, occupied population, number of employees and unemployment rate. Conclusions on comparative analysis are presented in the EU Member States as well as in each country. The labor cost analysis and, in this context, the level and evolution of income, wages and salary levels in each country are further developed. Interesting is also the structure analysis of age groups in which it is found that the most affected is the young age in which even graduates Þ nd jobs, regardless of whether they require secondary or higher education.


The graphical representation method for the structure of the employees in each of the 28 member states of the European Union was applied on the three age groups compared to the structure of the employees on the 28 countries, ie the total European Union. Another interesting element in terms of living standards and the standard of each country is the minimum wage granted to the economy. There is no directive in the European Union which has at the heart of its policy the desire to take up vacancies with a view to making better use of the workforce, reducing the unemployment fund and creating some opportunities for raising average and concomitant income Gross total revenue.

Literature review Anghelache (2008) is a major contribution in the Þ eld of statistical analyses. The books of Anghelache (2007-2016) present a complex image on the economic status of Romania in the respective years, the author also describes the signiÞ cant macroeconomic evolutions, not least, the comprehensive and comparable datasets that support the analysis form themselves a valuable data source for comparative studies over the interval 2007-2016. Belo, Lin and Bazdresch (2014) discuss on the correlation between labor hiring, investments and stock return predictability. Klein and Ventura (2009) analyze the impact of labor movements in dynamic. Silva and Toledo (2009) evaluate the interdependence between labor turnover costs and the cyclical character of vacancies and unemployment. Krause and Uhlig (2012) discuss on the characteristics of the labor market in Germany under the effect of the crisis. French and Song (2014) describe the impact of disability insurance on the supply factor of the labor market. Anghelache, Manole, Anghel, and Sacal (2016) have analyzed the labor market of Romania. Behaghel, Blanchet, and Roger (2014) discuss on the retirement characteristics in the French labor market. Davis, Faberman, and Haltiwanger (2006) develop on the ß ow approach to labor markets. Donangelo (2014) analyzes the implications of mobility within the labor market on the pricing of assets. Kroft et.al. (2013) present the results of a Þ eld experiment on the labor market conditions. Sala, Soderstrom, and Trigari (2008) describe the properties of uncertainty-speciÞ c monetary policies by using a model with labor market frictions. Majlesi (2016) discuss some internal household social consequences deriving from the conditions and status of the labor force market. Daly, Hobijn, Sahin and. Valletta (2012) study the real evolution of the unemployment rate. Anghelache, Manole, Anghel and Ursache (2016) have studied, for Romania, the correlation between the evolution of the population and the situation on the labor force market. Moreno-Galbisa and Tritah (2016) present a study,


based on empirical evidence, about the impact of immigration labor markets subjected to friction. Poterba, Venti and Wise (2010) analyze the asset cost associated with poor health. Pitt, Rosenzweig, and Hassan (2012) discuss on the gender division of labor in a particular type of economy. Anghelache, Anghel and Dumitrescu (2016) evaluate the resources on the Romanian labor market. Petrosky-Nadeau and Wasmer (2013) discuss on the cyclical characteristic of volatility in the labor markets under the impact of friction within Þ nancial markets. Betermier, Jansson, Parlour, and Walden (2012) analyze the hedging mechanism oriented towards labor income risk. Bloom and Van Reenen (2007) present a comparative analysis of management practices. Burda and Hunt (2011) develop on the causes of recovery on the German labor market during the Great recession in the fourth decade of the 20th century. Chen, Kacperczyk and Ortiz-Molina (2011) discuss on the cost of equity, labor unions and operating ß exibility.

Methodology research and data • Labor force Speaking of the free movement of persons in the European Union, one must Þ nd out what is the migration movement (immigration and emigration), and what is the evolution of the unemployment rate and in concrete terms, in absolute Þ gures of the number of unemployed. In the European Union, there has been an issue from the outset of stimulating the economic recovery of member countries, with the European Commission setting a strategy by 2020 to set the conditions for the European Union to harmonize, to narrow the gap between some countries and In a word, to be a situation in which each country will thrive and all of a sudden to initiate projects, to make investments and, in one word, to increase as much as possible the economy of each country, and on this background to grow And the standard of living of these countries. For example, in the European Union, the emphasis was on Member States to invest in the growth of the young labor force, prepared at the current standards, and more to understand that it is possible to set up funds for the labor force. An essential thing in the European Union is the evolution of the workforce. The data can be analyzed from 2005 to 2015, for which we have data published by Eurostat, but on the other hand a shorter analysis can be made, starting with 2007, in line with the labor force chapter established by the Treaty of Amsterdam. In 2015 in the European Union the employed population aged between 20 and 64 represented 70.1% of the total population between these two ages. In 2008 there was a decrease, and then it reached 70.3%, and then in the years 2012 and 2013 the percentage dropped to 68.4%. Of course, this perspective is also interesting from the point of view of the analysis of the


situation in the European Union. In summary, we can see that in the European Union with 28 states the rate of employees aged between 20 and 64 was 70.1%. Czech Republic was 74%, Denmark 76.5%, Germany 78%, Estonia 76.5%, Lithuania 73.3%, The Netherlands 76.4%, Austria 74.3%, Sweden 80.5% ( United Kingdom 76.8% and Iceland, Norway and Switzerland had 86.5%, respectively 79.1% and 82.8% respectively. Romania from 2005 to 2015 has registered employment rates of the population aged between 20 and 64, 63.6% in 2005, 64.4% in 2008, 64.8% in 2012, 64.7% in 2013, 65.7% in 2014 and 66% in 2015. In 2016, the percentage is very close, ie 66.2%. Romania has registered a growth trend, but it is quite insigniÞ cant compared to other EU member states. There are also countries with a much lower employment, such as Greece 54.9%, Croatia 60.5%, Italy 60.5%, or Macedonia and Turkey which are countries also taken into account in the European Union analysis with 51 , 9% and 53.9%, respectively. This employment of working age aged 20 to 64 was recorded as shown in table no. 1.


Employment rate, age group 20–64, 2005–15 (%)Table no. 1

(1) 2005–13: excluding overseas departments and territories.(2) 2015: break in series.(3) 2008: break in series.(4) 2014: break in series.Source: Eurostat - Key Þ gures on Europe 2016, pag. 77


From the point of view of the analysis of employment in the structure, by sex, we Þ nd that in men we meet a higher percentage, and in women a lower percentage. There is also a possibility to undertake an analysis of older employment, ie the last age group, which accounted for 53.3% of total European Union in 2015. Another element of the employment analysis or the number of employees is their situation according to the level of training. Thus, the rate of full-time employees with at least one level of training was 80.7%. Population with secondary or post-secondary education was 70.7%. The analysis can also be deepened by interpreting the level of employment, on the three groups considered signiÞ cant, to have a proper labor force study. Thus we take into account the age group of 15-24 years, the second group 25-54 years and the third, the 55-64 age group. We Þ nd that the highest percentage of people in the 25-54 age group, then the population aged 55-64, and lastly the population aged 15-24.

Employment rates by age group, 2015 (%)Figure no. 1

Note: The Þ gure is ranked on the overall employment rate.Source: Eurostat - Key Þ gures on Europe 2016, pag. 78There is a fairly reasonable employment rate.


• Unemployment A rather important element in the use of labor capable of working is the study of unemployment. On the whole of the European Union in 2014, the unemployment rate was 10.2%, falling in 2015 to 9.4%. A number of states record a high share of the number of unemployed among them being Spain with quite high rates and, in contrast, Luxembourg with only 0.4 percent.

Unemployment rate, 2005–15 (%)Figure no. 2


Analyzing the structure of gender unemployment, we Þ nd that between 2005 and 2015 the number of unemployed people in general was lower in men. Thus, in 2005, it was 8.4% for men and 9.8% for women, declining in 2008 to 6.6% for males and 7.5% for women, in 2012 it again rose to 10.4% % In men and 10.5% in women, 2013 10.8% in males and 10.9% in women, in 2014 10.1% in males and 10.3 in females and 2015 9.3% in males and 9 , 5% in women. By age group, population aged up to 25 years, in 2005 and 2015, a very high unemployment rate was consistently high, being 19% in 2005, decreasing in 2008 to 15.9% in 2012 23, 3%, 23.7% in 2013, 22.2% in 2014, and in 2015 slightly falling to 20.4%. The age group aged between 25 and 74, also considering those who have reached retirement age but who are still working, Þ nd that their percentage was between 5,9% in 2008 (the lowest unemployment rate) and 9 , 5% in 2013 (the highest unemployment rate in this age group). In 2015 the unemployment rate in this category was 8.3%. In the long run, the male unemployment rate ranged between 2.4% in 2008 and 5.1% in 2013, for women between 2.8% in 2008 and 5.1% in 2013.


Unemployment rate, EU-28, selected years (%)Table no. 2


• Wages and labor costs A particularly important aspect of the analysis of the labor force situation is paid salaries and, in a word, the cost of labor. In the European Union, 28 states the hourly labor cost was 25.3 euro / hour and for the European Union the Þ rst 19 states were 29.5 euro / hour. Of course, the cost of labor is different, with the wage paid, and this is very clear from the estimated working time of 2015 hours for all EU Member States. The following chart presents the salary and income situation as well as other labor costs for each country.

Estimated hourly labour costs, 2015 (EUR)Figure no. 3

Note: Enterprises with 10 or more employees. NACE Rev. 2 Sections B to S excluding O.Provisional data.Source: Eurostat - Key Þ gures on Europe 2016, pag. 81


We Þ nd that Denmark, Belgium, Sweden, Luxembourg, France, the Netherlands, Finland, Austria, Germany, Ireland, Italy and the United Kingdom have a high level of revenue and total cost. In the last 5 positions with very low incomes, Bulgaria, Romania, Lithuania, Latvia and Hungary. The low level of this income is due to the state of the economy, the growth and the decline of those countries that still have enough economic problems.

• Minimum wage In January 2016, 22 countries in 28 European Union member states had set a minimum wage in the economy. Denmark, Italy, Cyprus, Austria, Finland and Sweden did not have this provision. In January 2016, the monthly minimum wage was variable, the lowest being Bulgaria (125 euro / month), and the highest in Luxembourg (1923 euro / month). Of course, there is the question of what is the ratio between the minimum wage rate on the economy and the rate calculated at purchasing power parity. From this point of view, the minimum wage in terms of purchasing power parity as a term was 445 for Romania and 1597 purchasing power parity index in Luxembourg. In 2014-2015, the minimum wage in the economy was 33% of gross national income to 50% in the situation of countries in a more delicate situation. The chart below shows the minimum wage situation for those countries that calculate it, resulting in Romania and Bulgaria being also on this indicator on the last two places.

Minimum wages, January 2016 (PPS per month)Figure no. 4


It also notes that the minimum wage expressed as a proportion of monthly average gross earnings shows a classiÞ cation that in general terms


resembles the proportion or classiÞ cation according to purchasing power parity index. As for the proportion of the minimum income in the average monthly gross income, there are countries such as Western countries, and a larger proportion are countries such as Greece, Slovenia, who really have some difÞ culty in Þ nding the To use them for an adequate standard.

• Job vacancy Based on these factors, the unemployment rate, the total number of registered unemployed receiving aid, the desire of countries to make efforts to absorb some of the unemployment, to create new jobs for investment, the vacancies offered at The level of national economies. In the European Union, by 2007, there were 2.2% of vacant jobs that should have been occupied. In recent years, the vacancy vacancy rate has followed a steady trend, with 1.4% in 2009, to 1.4% in 2010, running until 2011, 2012, 2013 and even 2014 With the same value. The vacancy rate in the European Union remained high in Germany (2.9%), Malta (2.5%), Great Britain (2.3%) or Belgium (2.2%). A small share of vacancies (less than 1%) met in 15 of the 28 EU Member States. The lowest level was registered in Latvia in 2014 (0.4%). The following chart shows the percentages registered by the European Union member states regarding vacancies (unoccupied).

Job vacancy rate, 2014 (%)Figure no. 5


There is also a chart of Job vacancy in the period 2004-2014 which expresses the same tendency of a trend, on average, on the European Union constantly and non-alarmingly, in the perspective of the jobs required in the European Union’s economy.


Job vacancy rate, 2004–2014 (%)Figure no. 6


Conclusion The survey data show the analysis of labor force developments in the European Union as a whole as well as each member country. As a result of the analysis carried out, a number of theoretical and practical conclusions are drawn. We have to conclude that there is a concern in the European Union to better deal with working-class population, as well as the concern that the population of the third group as an active source of work is best occupied and the effect of migration between European countries are not a phenomenon of alarming rise in unemployment in some countries. Of course, there are many issues to be discussed, such as the situation of Spain with high unemployment, but which accepts the population that is looking for substantial jobs, but this is actually the labor market in the European Union, which creates opportunities and needs to be taken up by those Who have some problems. The study can also be deepened by using econometric models that calculate regression parameters to estimate the evolution of these indicators.


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Managementul riscului opera ional

Conf. univ. dr. Aurelian DIACONU ([email protected])

Universitatea „Artifex” din Bucure tiDrd. Doina AVRAM ([email protected])

Academia de Studii Economice din Bucure tiDrd. Alexandru BADIU ([email protected])

Academia de Studii Economice din Bucure tiDrd. Doina BUREA ([email protected])

Academia de Studii Economice din Bucure tiDrd. Marius POPOVICI ([email protected])


Abstract În acest articol, autorii descriu principalele abord ri referitoare la managementul riscului opera ional, ca risc speciÞ c asociat activit ilor economice i, în special, celor Þ nanciar-bancare. Pornind de la importan a i necesitatea de a aplica un management adecvat pentru acest tip de riscuri,

precum i de la obiectivele urm rite, sunt prezentate principiile deÞ nite conform Noului Acord de la Basel,caracteristicile deÞ nitorii ale riscului opera ional i componentele sale (riscul de personal, riscul juridic, riscul de reputa ie, riscul de marketing etc.), precum i metodologia de cuantiÞ care. Autorii eviden iaz rolul controlului intern, ca instrument fundamental în managementul riscului opera ional i detaliaz componentele acestui proces: controlul activit ilor, evaluarea, ac iunile de control, informarea, comunicarea i monitorizarea. Cuvinte cheie: risc, opera ional, management, cuantiÞ care, control ClasiÞ carea JEL: D81, G32

Introducere În ultimii ani, institu iile Þ nanciare s-au confruntat cu o serie de pierderi care le-a determinat s - i reformuleze viziunea asupra managementului riscului opera ional. Este cunoscut faptul c metodele de tipul controlului propriei analize i auditul intern au dat gre în gestionarea riscului opera ional. Institu iile de reglementare au criticat b ncile pentru faptul c nu au testat modelele de risc în func ie de mi c rile extreme ale pie ei. Obiectivele investirii într-un cadru îmbun t it al riscului opera ional sunt: evitarea pierderilor mari neachitate; evitarea unui num r mare de pierderi de valori mai mici; îmbun t irea eÞ cien ei opera ionale; îmbun t irea rentabilit ii capitalului; alocarea mai bun a capitalului; cre terea calit ii


serviciilor oferite clientelei; aten ie sporit acordat riscului opera ional în cadrul managementului bancar; gestionarea mai eÞ cient a informa iilor i a resurselor umane în cadrul b ncii.

Literature review Anghelache (2010) descrie, în detaliu, m surarea riscurilor i performan elor în activit ile Þ nanciar-bancare, prin utilizarea unor metode i modele dedicate. Engle (2011) analizeaz riscul de sistem în corela ie cu

parametrul Skewness. Atkeson i Kehoe (2005) se preocup de capitalul organiza ional: modelarea i m surarea acestuia. Aebi, Sabato i Schmid (2012) au în vedere particularit ile managementului riscului, guvernan ei corporative i performan ei bancare în contextul crizei Þ nanciare, Anghelache i Bodo (2016) se preocup de aspectele teoretice ale problematicii riscurilor

sistemice i procesului decizional sub efectul crizeo. Stulz (2008) analizeaz caracteristicile e ecurilor în managementul riscului. Wulf (2007) analizeaz corela ia dintre autoritate, risc i bonusurile de performan , pe baza unui set de date corespunz toare nivelului ierarhic de division manager. Anghelache (2010) se preocup de managementul unei categorii speciale de riscuri, respectiv riscurile asociate protec iei mediului înconjur tor. Anghelache, Manole, Anghel i Soare (2016) descriu un model statistico-econometric dedicat analizei riscurilor opera ional i de insolven . Anghelache, Anghel i Diaconu (2016) se preocup de aversiunea fa de risc. Anghelache et.al. (2015) prezint modele dedicate analizei riscurilor Þ nanciare. Acemoglu, Johnson i Mitton (2009) analizeaz dezvoltarea Þ nanciar i costurile contract rii

ca factori determinan i ai integr rii pe vertical . Bolton, Chen i Wang (2013) se preocup dintre corela ia dintre pia , investi ii i managementul riscului. Bloom (2009) se preocup de impactul ocurilor incertitudinii. Anghelache, Bodo i Marinescu (2017) studiaz utilizarea informa iei asimetrice în procesele decizionale supuse riscului. Almeida i Campello (2007) analizeaz corela ia dintre restric iile Þ nanciare, caracterul corporal al activelor i investi iilor corporative. Bonaimé, Hankins i Harford (2014) analizeaz rela ia dintre ß exibilitatea Þ nanciar i managementului. Osterman (2006) analizeaz efectele câ tigurilor salariale asupra companiilor de înalt performan din sectorul productiv. Emm, Gay i Lin (2007) se preocup de bunele practici în managementul riscului corporativ. Rampini i Viswanathan (2010) se preocup de unele aspecte referitoare la managementul riscurilor în contextul activit ilor Þ nanciare. Altig, Christiano, Eichenbaum i Linde (2011) analizeaz capitalul speciÞ c al companiilor. Anghelache i Anghel (2014) este o lucrare de referin în modelarea economic . Anghelache i Anghelache (2009) au în vedere indicatorii asocia i riscului i proÞ tabilit ii,


ca fundament al analizelor Þ nanciare. GarÞ nkel i Hankins (2011) evalueaz rolul managementului riscului în tranzac iile asociate fuziunilor. Rosenberg i Schuermann (2006) se preocup de managementul total al riscului. Shenoy i Williams (2017) iau în calcul creditul comercial, corelat cu parametrii care descriu caracteristicile Þ nanciare ale partenerilor tranzac iei comerciale.

Metodologia cercet rii i date • Necesitatea gestion rii riscului opera ional Evitarea unei pierderi nea teptate reprezint unul dintre motivele de investire în gestionarea riscului opera ional, iar politica adecvat este cuantiÞ carea posibilit ii de apari ie a pierderii. DiÞ cultatea o reprezint cuantiÞ carea magnitudinii i a probabilit ii apari iei unei variet i de astfel de evenimente. Aceasta a dus la investigarea de c tre unele b nci a aspectelor cantitative ale gestion rii riscului opera ional. Documentele legate de „Riscul Opera ional i Controlul Intern” apar inând Comitetului de la Basel de Supraveghere Bancar sunt utile, iar aceast recentrare asupra riscului opera ional a dus la apari ia unor practici de reglementare sau reguli noi de aplicare.

• Abordarea riscului opera ional conform Noului Acord de la Basel Comitetul de la Basel consider c riscul opera ional reprezint un risc important pentru b nci i c acestea trebuie s de in fonduri proprii pentru a se proteja împotriva pierderilor ce pot ap rea. Basel II deÞ ne te riscul opera ional ca Þ ind un risc de pierdere rezultat din caren ele sau deÞ cien ele procedurilor, personalului, sistemelor interne sau evenimentelor exterioare. În acest domeniu, Comitetul a elaborat o nou abordare privind calculul fondurilor proprii adecvate. Ca i pentru riscul de credit, Comitetul are în vedere tehnicile de evaluare intern dezvoltate de b nci într-un ritm rapid; el caut s incite b ncile în a- i perfec iona aceste tehnici i în a- i îmbun t i gestionarea riscului opera ional. Este cazul abord rilor de

m sur complexe (AMC) privind riscul opera ional. Comitetul ofer b ncilor suple e în elaborarea unui studiu care s permit calcularea nivelului minim al fondurilor proprii pentru riscul opera ional corespunz tor proÞ lului lor de activitate i riscurilor subsecvente. Comitetul de la Basel are inten ia de a urm ri în mod constant evolu ia abord rilor privind riscul opera ional. În acest sens, este bine privit progresul b ncilor care au elaborat metode de gestionare a riscului opera ional în func ie de AMC. Conducerea acestor b nci a ajuns la concluzia c este posibil elaborarea unei viziuni suple i exhaustive privind cuantiÞ carea riscului opera ional în cadrul procedeelor de stabilire a limitelor privind fondurile proprii.


B ncile de dimensiune interna ional sau expuse unui risc opera ional important sunt obligate s adopte la termen metodologia AMC, mai sensibil la risc. Acordul Basel II presupune dou abord ri mai simple ale riscului opera ional (indicator de baz i standardizat), destinate b ncilor mai pu in expuse la riscul opera ional. Global, cele dou abord ri cer ca b ncile s de in fonduri proprii pentru riscul opera ional, calculate ca procent Þ x din m sura riscului determinat.

• DeÞ nirea riscului opera ional Problema deÞ nirii riscului opera ional preocup institu iile Þ nanciare. Multe b nci au adoptat ca practic o listare a categoriilor de risc, analizând Þ ecare dintre acestea i luând decizia dac ele trebuie raportate i controlate separat în cadrul managementului riscului (riscul de pia i cel de credit). Este important de remarcat faptul c riscul opera ional nu se limiteaz la institu iile Þ nanciare. Exemple utile de abordare a deÞ nirii i m sur rii acestui risc se reg sesc i în alte sectoare. Riscul opera ional a fost deja gestionat la nivel local, în cadrul Þ ec rui departament cu sprijinul unor func ii cum ar Þ cele juridice i audit intern. Componentele riscului opera ional sunt: riscul de control, riscul de proces, riscul de reputa ie, riscul de personal, riscul legal, riscul de preluare, riscul de marketing, lacune ale sistemelor informatice i de comunicare, riscul tehnologic, schimb ri în sistemul Þ scal, modiÞ c ri ale reglement rilor în domeniu, m rimea afacerii, riscul de proiect, securitate, management suplimentar al riscului. Riscul de control este riscul de producere a unei pierderi nea teptate datorate lipsei unui control adecvat sau a lipsei de eÞ cacitate a acestui control i poate Þ împ r it în dou mari categorii: riscul inerent – riscul unei anumite

activit i în cadrul b ncii indiferent de tipul de control intern exercitat, domeniile de afaceri complexe, în elese doar de câteva persoane cheie, implic un risc inerent ridicat (tranzac ii cu produse derivate exotice) i riscul de control – riscul în care o pierdere Þ nanciar nu este prevenit , detectat i corectat la timp de c tre controlul intern. Riscul de proces este riscul prin care activitatea ineÞ cient produce pierderi nea teptate. Riscul de proces este legat îndeaproape de controlul intern, dup cum acesta din urm trebuie privit ca un proces. Se diferen iaz de controlul intern atunci când un proces este v zut ca o activitate continu de tipul managementului riscului, dar controlul intern în cadrul procesului de management al riscului este înf i at ca „punct de control”. Riscul de reputa ie este riscul unei pierderi nea teptate în ce prive te pre ul activelor, datorat impactului asupra reputa iei institu iei. Pierderea reputa iei poate surveni în urma vânz rii produselor Þ nanciare noi.


Riscul de personal nu se refer numai la activit ile departamentului de resurse umane, de i acestea contribuie la controlul riscului. Exist condi ii speciÞ ce în cadrul activit ii de control de care managerul de risc opera ional trebuie s in seama atunci când realizeaz o evaluare. Departamentul de resurse umane trebuie s acopere aceste riscuri prin statuarea unor standarde i prin stabilirea unei infrastructuri ce con ine baze de date privind „managementul cuno tin elor” cât i printr-o preg tire adecvat i promovare profesional . Riscul juridic, poate Þ împ r it în urm toarele categorii, respectiv: riscul apari iei unor preten ii de ordin juridic datorate activit ii sau ac iunii angaja ilor; riscul prin care o opinie juridic asupra unei chestiuni legate de lege se dovede te a Þ incorect în justi ie, acest ultim risc este aplicabil compens rii sau produselor Þ nanciare noi; posibilitatea de punere în vigoare a deciziei dintr-o jurisdic ie într-o alt jurisdic ie. Riscul de preluare const în posibilitatea modiÞ c rii structurii capitalului institu iei în urma achizi iilor succesive de ac iuni prin intermediul burselor de valori. Riscul de marketing este riscul ce se poate produce atunci când produsele noi sunt slab puse în valoare în strategia de marketing. Riscul tehnologic, într-o deÞ ni ie vast include toate riscurile de sistem inclusiv presiunea extern legat de progresul tehnologic. Riscul tehnologic se aß în centrul afacerii la b ncile de investi ii. ModiÞ c ri ale sistemului Þ scal – dac apar modiÞ c ri în nivelul impozitelor, retrospectiv aceasta poate face ca afacerea s devin imediat neproÞ tabil . Un exemplu în acest sens îl reprezint modiÞ c rile în deductibilitatea cheltuielilor. În mod normal, afacerea ar trebui s aib în vedere posibilitatea unor schimb ri în nivelul impozitelor, determinând clientul s pl teasc . ModiÞ c ri ale reglement rilor în domeniu – necesit o monitorizare permanent . Efectul asupra afacerii poate Þ important iar riscul unei volatilit i ridicate a rentabilit ilor poate Þ extrem de mare. Un exemplu în acest sens îl constituie schimb rile ponderilor de risc mediu ale activelor. M rimea afacerii – dac mecanismele, personalul i infrastructura informatic nu pot sus ine dezvoltarea afacerii, riscul de faliment este ridicat. Riscul de proiect – reprezint un motiv important de îngrijorare pentru multe Þ rme, în mod deosebit impactul câtorva proiecte curente. Securitate – activele b ncilor trebuie s Þ e asigurate atât împotriva furtului intern cât i celui extern. Astfel de active includ nu numai banii Þ rmei sau alte hârtii de valoare/împrumuturi, dar i activele clien ilor i proprietatea intelectual a Þ rmei.


Riscul unor catastrofe naturale – catastrofele naturale reprezint una dintre cauzele principale de pierdere Þ nanciar . O alt deÞ ni ie dat riscului opera ional este aceea a unei pierderi nea teptate datorat deÞ cien elor de control intern sau sistemelor informa ionale cauzate de o eroare uman , c deri ale sistemului i control al acestuia. În concluzie, riscul opera ional este deÞ nit astfel: Riscul opera ional reprezint expunerea b ncii la pierderile Þ nanciare poten iale. Astfel de pierderi pot Þ cauzate de evenimente interne sau externe, trenduri i modiÞ c ri ce nu au fost surprinse i prevenite de guvernan a corporativ i de controlul intern, sisteme, politici, organizare, standarde etice sau de alte elemente de control i standarde ale Þ rmei. Astfel de pierderi le exclud pe cele deja surprinse de alte categorii de risc, cum ar Þ riscul de pia , cel de credit sau riscul strategic/de afacere.

• CuantiÞ carea riscului opera ional Pa ii ce trebuie urm ri i de orice metod de cuantiÞ care sunt urm torii: identiÞ carea unei metode care descrie clar expunerea la riscul opera ional, factorii de risc i pierderile poten iale; stabilirea unei rela ii între expunerea la risc, factorii de risc i pierderile poten iale; temperarea evenimentelor cu un impact redus dar de frecven ridicat i a celor cu un impact ridicat dar de frecven redus i includerea modelului Þ nal i a rapoartelor în cadrul afacerii i proceselor de management. Atunci când se analizeaz riscul de pia sau de credit, multe institu ii recurg la o abordare gradual , clariÞ când succesiv urm toarele aspecte: deÞ nirea riscului; identiÞ carea factorilor de risc; m surarea expunerii la ace ti factori; calcularea riscului (în func ie de un num r de ipoteze cum sunt: aplicarea speciÞ c a factorilor de risc la expunere i timpul de expunere la ace ti factori i intervalul de încredere presupus).


Abord ri graduale în analizarea riscului de pia , de credit i opera ional

Riscul de pia Riscul de credit Riscul opera ional

DeÞ nirea tipurilor de risc

Riscul de rat a dobânziiRiscul de pre de pia al ac iunilorRiscul m rfurilorRiscul valutar

Riscul de pierdere al contrapartideiRiscul de concentrareRiscul de deteriorare a credituluiRiscul de ar

Riscul de controlRiscul de procesRiscul de personal

IdentiÞ carea factorilor de risc

Valorile de baz i curba volatilit ii într-un interval de timp

Matricea de migrare a ratingului de credit, rate de pierdere i rate de câ tig

Detalii incorecte de tranzac ionareMesaje primite gre itTehnologie îmb trânitFraud /conspira ieGradul de îmboln vire a personalului/cifra de afaceriMoralCultur

M surarea expunerii a factorii de risc

Cash-ß ow-urile nete într-un interval de timp

Cotarea la pia , expunerea poten ial

Volumul tranzac iilorUtilizarea capacit ii informa ionaleNivelul conÞ rm rilor ratateLucruri nereconciliateDecont ri e uateGradul de împ r ire a sarcinilor

Calculul riscului

Metoda Valoare la Risc (VaR parametric )Expuneri, factori de risc i corela ia dintre ace tia

Metoda VaR pentru riscul de credit, expunerea înmul it cu pierderea nerecuperat i corela ia lor

Metoda VaR pentru riscul opera ional: expunerile înmul ite cu probabilitatea.Generarea distribu iei pierderii i pentru un interval de încredere speciÞ cat, m surarea pierderii nea teptate

Calcularea proÞ tului i pierderii i explicarea surselor

ModiÞ c ri ale factorilor de risc/expuneri ale tranzac iilor din timpul zilei explic varia ia zilnic a proÞ tului i pierderii

ModiÞ c rile factorilor de risc explic varia ia lunar a valorii portofoliilor de credit

Volatilitatea câ tigurilor reziduale dup înl turarea efectului riscului de pia , de credit i a celui strategic de afacere

Compararea riscului cu rentabilitatea

Metoda VaR parametricExpuneri, factori de risc i corela ia lor

Metoda VaR pentru riscul de credit, expunerea înmul it cu pierderea nerecuperat i corela ia lor

Calcularea efectului incremental


• Abord ri calitative pentru m surarea riscului opera ional Majoritatea abord rilor legate de riscul opera ional i controlul intern au fost de ordin calitativ, astfel încât identiÞ carea riscului opera ional a fost m surat în cuvinte, mai degrab decât în cifre. O abordare obi nuit este aceea de a realiza o trecere în revist a modului în care banca gestioneaz riscul opera ional i apoi realizarea unei evalu ri a riscului bazat pe p rerea obiectiv a unei persoane cu experien . O mare parte a acestei sarcini se realiza în trecut de auditul intern. În majoritatea b ncilor, pân de curând nu existau alte departamente implicate în evaluarea riscului opera ional cu excep ia auditului intern. În SUA, în septembrie 1992 a fost creat un document cadru privind controlul intern pentru toate Þ rmele, nu numai pentru institu iile Þ nanciare. Toate conceptele cheie din acest document au fost încorporate în Standardele Americane de Audit (SAA). SAA 55 stipuleaz c , controlul intern este un proces realizat de consiliul director al companiei, de conducere i al ii, destinat s ofere asigurare în ce prive te îndeplinirea urm toarelor obiective: veridicitatea rapoartelor Þ nanciare; eÞ cien a opera iilor i conformitatea cu legile i reglement rile aplicabile. Controlul intern reprezint un proces i de aceea o serie de ac iuni vizeaz activit ile unei companii. Componentele ac iunilor de control intern sunt urm toarele: - Controlul activit ilor – ofer cadrul în care sunt conduse activit ile

i controlul. Include integritatea i valorile etice ale Þ rmei. - Evaluarea riscului – banca trebuie s urm reasc riscurile cu care

se confrunt , inclusiv riscul opera ional. Trebuie s stabileasc obiectivele privind afacerea, împreun cu activit i de vânzare, produc ie, marketing, Þ nanciare i altele, astfel încât s se opereze eÞ cient în departamente diferite. Banca trebuie s - i stabileasc mecanisme pentru a identiÞ ca, analiza i gestiona riscurile aferente.

- Ac iunile de control – trebuie s se stabileasc i s se execute ac iuni de control i proceduri pentru a se asigura c m surile identiÞ cate de conducere sunt necesare în leg tur cu riscurile, i se desf oar efectiv.

- Informare i comunicare – în jurul acestor activit i se aß sistemele de informare i de comunicare, ce permit primirea i schimbul de informa ii necesare pentru a conduce, gestiona i controla opera iunile.

- Monitorizare – întregul proces trebuie s Þ e monitorizat, iar dac este necesar, f cute modiÞ c ri. În acest mod sistemul poate reac iona dinamic, modiÞ cându-se, dac condi iile o cer.


Cele cinci componente înt resc cele trei obiective men ionate: raportarea Þ nanciar ; aplicarea i opera iunile. Riscurile (sau punctele slabe în ce prive te controlul intern) pot Þ ordonate în func ie de priorit i i de resursele alocate lor. Ordonarea ia în considerare magnitudinea i probabilitatea pierderii. Metoda este subiectiv i depinde de experien a auditorului, managerului Þ rmei sau managerul de

risc opera ional. O abordare mai bun o reprezint cuantiÞ carea riscului opera ional.

Concluzii Managementul riscului opera ional este un proces din categoria celor critice pentru buna desf urare a activit ii bancare i evitarea pierderilor Þ nanciare. În mod ideal, a a cum prevede i Noul Acord de la Basel, b ncile trebuie s aib posibilitatea de a aloca resurse proprii pentru a aplica un management corespunz tor al riscului opera ional. Principiile statuate de acordul amintit au în vedere inclusiv m surile derivate din procedurile de evaluare intern adoptate de b nci. Riscul opera ional este deosebit de complex, dac avem în vedere componentele acestuia i nu poate Þ ignorat, sub nici un aspect, întrucât, a a cum este el deÞ nit, expune institu ia Þ nanciar la pierderi care cu greu pot Þ recuperate (prejudiciile de imagine, evenimente care intr în categoria riscurilor de securitate etc.). M surarea, cuantiÞ carea adecvat a riscului opera ional i aplicarea riguroas a procedurilor asociate procesului de control intern constituie condi ii sine qua non pentru un management profesionist al riscului bancar.

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11. Anghelache, C. (2010). Management of the Environment and Environmental Risk. Metalurgia International, nr. 5, Editura tiin iÞ c F.M.R., pp. 206-212

12. Anghelache, C. (2010). Metode i modele de m surare a riscurilor i performan elor Þ nanciar-bancare – Edi ia a II-a, Editura Artifex Bucure ti

13. Anghelache, G.V., and Anghelache, C. (2009). Risk and proÞ tability – Basis of the Þ nancial analysis. Metalurgia Interna ional, Vol. XIV, nr. 12 Special Issue, Editura tiin iÞ c F.M.R., pp. 120-121

14. Atkeson, A. and Kehoe, P. (2005). Modeling and Measuring Organization Capital. Journal of Political Economy, 113(5), 1026-1053

15. Bloom, N. (2009). The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks. Econometrica, 77, pp. 623–685

16. Bolton, P., Chen, H., and Wang, N. (2013). Market timing, investment, and risk management. Journal of Financial Economics, 109, pp. 40-62

17. Bonaimé, A., Hankins, K. and Harford, J. (2014). Financial ß exibility, risk management, and payout choice. Review of Financial Studies, 27, pp. 1074-1101

18. Emm, E., Gay, G. and Lin, C. (2007). Choices and best practice in corporate risk management disclosure. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 19, pp. 82-93

19. Engle, R.F. (2011). Long-Term Skewness and Systemic Risk. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 9, pp. 437–468

20. GarÞ nkel, J., and Hankins, K.W. (2011). The role of risk management in mergers and waves. Journal of Financial Economics, 101, 515–532

21. Osterman, P. (2006). The Wage effects of High Performance Work Organizations in Manufacturing. Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 59(2), 187-204

22. Rampini, A., and Viswanathan, S. (2010). Collateral, risk management, and the distribution of debt capacity. Journal of Finance, 65, pp. 2293–2322

23. Rosenberg, J. and Schuermann, T. (2006). A general approach to integrated risk management with skewed, fat-tailed risks. Journal of Financial Economics, 79, pp.569-614

24. Shenoy, J. and Williams, R. (2017). Trade credit and the joint effects of supplier and customer Þ nancial characteristics. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 29, pp. 68-80

25. Stulz, R.M. (2008). Risk Management Failures: What are They and When do They Happen?. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 20, 58–67

26. Wulf, J. (2007). Authority, Risk and Performance Incentives: Evidence from Division Manager Positions Insider Firms. Journal of Industrial Economics, LV(1), pp. 169-186


OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT

Assoc. prof. Aurelian DIACONU PhD ([email protected])

„Artifex” University of Bucharest Alexandru BADIU PhD Student ([email protected])

Bucharest University of Economic StudiesDoina AVRAM Ph.D Student ([email protected]) Bucharest University of Economic Studies Doina BUREA PhD Student ([email protected])

Bucharest University of Economic StudiesMarius POPOVICI Ph.D Student ([email protected])


Abstract În acest articol, autorii descriu principalele abord ri referitoare la managementul riscului opera ional, ca risc speciÞ c asociat activit ilor economice i, în special, celor Þ nanciar-bancare. Pornind de la importan a i necesitatea de a aplica un management adecvat pentru acest tip de riscuri,

precum i de la obiectivele urm rite, sunt prezentate principiile deÞ nite conform Noului Acord de la Basel,caracteristicile deÞ nitorii ale riscului opera ional i componentele sale (riscul de personal, riscul juridic, riscul de reputa ie, riscul de marketing etc.), precum i metodologia de cuantiÞ care. Autorii eviden iaz rolul controlului intern, ca instrument fundamental în managementul riscului opera ional i detaliaz componentele acestui proces: controlul activit ilor, evaluarea, ac iunile de control, informarea, comunicarea i monitorizarea. Keywords: risc, opera ional, management, cuantiÞ care, control JEL ClassiÞ cation: D81, G32

Introduction In recent years, Þ nancial institutions have faced a series of losses that have led them to reformulate their vision of operational risk management. It is known that methods such as own analysis control and internal audit have failed to manage operational risk. Regulators have criticized banks for failing to test risk models according to extreme market movements. The objectives of investing in an improved operational risk framework are: avoiding large unpaid losses; Avoiding large losses of lower values; Improving operational efÞ ciency; Improving return on capital; Better allocation of capital; Increasing the quality of services offered to customers; Increased focus on operational risk in banking management; More efÞ cient management of information and human resources within the bank.


Literature review Anghelache (2010) describes in detail the measurement of risks and performance in Þ nancial-banking activities through the use of dedicated methods and models. Engle (2011) analyzes system risk in conjunction with the Skewness parameter. Atkeson and Kehoe (2005) are concerned with organizational capital: modeling and measuring it. Aebi, Sabato and Schmid (2012) address the particularities of risk management, corporate governance and banking performance in the context of the Þ nancial crisis, Anghelache and Bodo (2016) are concerned with the theoretical aspects of systemic risk and decision-making under the crisis. Stulz (2008) analyzes the characteristics of failures in risk management. Wulf (2007) analyzes the correlation between authority, risk and performance bonuses, based on a data set corresponding to the divisional hierarchical level. Anghelache (2010) is concerned with the management of a special category of risks, namely the risks associated with the protection of the environment. Anghelache, Manole, Anghel and the Soare (2016) describe a statistical and econometric model dedicated to the analysis of operational and insolvency risks. Anghelache, Anghel, and Diaconu (2016) are concerned about risk aversion. Anghelache et.al. (2015) presents models dedicated to Þ nancial risk analysisAcemoglu, Johnson and Mitton (2009) analyze Þ nancial development and contracting costs as the determinants of vertical integration. Bolton, Chen and Wang (2013) are concerned about the correlation between the market, investment and risk management. Bloom (2009) is concerned about the impact of uncertainty shocks. Anghelache, Bodo and Marinescu (2017) study the use of asymmetric information in the decision-making processes at risk. Almeida and Campello (2007) analyze the correlation between Þ nancial restrictions, the corporal nature of assets and corporate investment. Bonaimé, Hankins and Harford (2014) analyze the relationship between Þ nancial ß exibility and management. Osterman (2006) analyzes the effects of wage earnings on high-performance companies in the productive sector. Emm, Gay and Lin (2007) are concerned about good corporate risk management practices. Rampini and Viswanathan (2010) are concerned with some aspects of risk management in the context of Þ nancial activities. Altig, Christiano, Eichenbaum and Linde (2011) analyze the company’s speciÞ c capital. Anghelache and Anghel (2014) is a reference work in economic modeling. Anghelache and Anghelache (2009) take into account risk and proÞ tability indicators as a basis for Þ nancial analyzes. GarÞ nkel and Hankins (2011) assess the role of risk management in merger related transactions. Rosenberg and Schuermann (2006) are concerned with total risk management. Shenoy and Williams (2017) take into account the commercial credit, correlated with the parameters describing the Þ nancial characteristics of the trading partners.


Methodology research and data • The need for operational risk management Avoiding an unexpected loss is one of the reasons for investing in managing operational risk and the appropriate policy is to quantify the possibility of loss. The difÞ culty is to quantify the magnitude and the probability of occurrence of a variety of such events. This has led to the investigation by some banks of the quantitative aspects of operational risk management. Documents related to the “Operational Risk and Internal Control” belonging to the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision are useful and this review of operational risk has led to the emergence of regulatory practices or new enforcement rules.

• Addressing operational risk under the New Basel Accord The Basel Committee believes that operational risk is a major risk to banks and that they need to have their own funds to protect themselves against the losses that may arise. Basel II deÞ nes operational risk as a risk of loss resulting from the deÞ ciencies of procedures, personnel, internal systems, or external events. In this area, the Committee has developed a new approach to the calculation of adequate own funds. As for credit risk, the Committee considers internal evaluation techniques developed by banks at a rapid pace; He seeks to incite banks to reÞ ne these techniques and improve their operational risk management. This is the case for complex risk measurement (AMC) approaches to operational risk. The Committee offers banks the ß exibility to develop a study to allow the calculation of the minimum own funds level for operational risk according to their activity proÞ le and the subsequent risks. The Basel Committee intends to keep track of the evolution of operational risk approaches. In this respect, the progress of banks that have developed methods of managing operational risk according to AMC is well looked at. The management of these banks concluded that it is possible to develop a slim and exhaustive vision of the quantiÞ cation of operational risk in the procedures for establishing the own funds limits. Banks of an international dimension or exposed to an important operational risk are required to adopt on a more timely basis AMC risk-sensitive methodology. The Basel II agreement involves two simpler approaches to operational risk (benchmark and standardized indicator) for banks less exposed to operational risk. Globally, the two approaches require banks to own operational risk funds, calculated as a Þ xed percentage of the determined risk measure.


• DeÞ nition of operational risk The issue of operational risk deÞ nition concerns Þ nancial institutions. Many banks have adopted a list of risk categories as a practice, analyzing each of them and deciding whether they should be reported and controlled separately in risk management (market and credit risk). It is important to note that operational risk is not limited to Þ nancial institutions. Useful examples to address the deÞ nition and measurement of this risk are also found in other sectors. Operational risk has already been managed locally, within each department with the support of functions such as legal and internal audit. The operational risk components are: control risk, process risk, reputational risk, personnel risk, legal risk, takeover risk, marketing risk, gaps in IT and communication systems, technological risk, changes in the tax system, changes in the Business regulations, business size, project risk, security, additional risk management. The control risk is the risk of unexpected loss due to lack of control or lack of effectiveness of this control and can be divided into two broad categories: inherent risk - the risk of a certain activity within the bank regardless of the type of internal control exercised , Complex business areas, understood only by a few key people, involve an inherent risk (transactions with exotic derivatives) and control risk - the risk that a Þ nancial loss is prevented, detected and corrected in time by internal control. Process risk is the risk that the inefÞ cient activity produces unexpected losses. Process risk is closely linked to internal control, as the latter must be seen as a process. It differs from internal control when a process is seen as a continuous activity of the type of risk management, but the internal control within the risk management process is presented as a “control point”. Reputational risk is the risk of unexpected asset price loss due to the impact on the reputation of the institution. Loss of reputation may arise from the sale of new Þ nancial products. Personnel risk is not limited to the human resources department’s activities, although they contribute to risk control. There are speciÞ c conditions in the control activity which an operational risk manager should take into account when performing an assessment. The Human Resources Department has to cover these risks by setting standards and by establishing an infrastructure containing knowledge management databases and through adequate training and professional promotion. The legal risk can be divided into the following categories, namely: the risk of legal claims due to the activity or action of the employees; The risk that a legal opinion on a matter related to the law proves to be unfair in law, this latter risk is applicable to new compensation or new Þ nancial products; The possibility of enforcing the decision from a jurisdiction in another jurisdiction.


The takeover risk consists in the possibility of changing the structure of the institution’s capital following successive acquisitions through stock exchanges. Marketing risk is the risk that can arise when new products are poorly matched in marketing strategy. Technological risk, in a broad deÞ nition, includes all systemic risks including external pressure related to technological progress. Technological risk lies at the heart of business with investment banks. Changes in the tax system - If tax changes occur, retrospectively this can make the business immediately unproÞ table. An example of this is the changes in the deductibility of expenditures. Normally, the business should consider the possibility of changes in tax rates, causing the customer to pay. Regulatory changes in the Þ eld - require permanent monitoring. The effect on the business may be important and the risk of high proÞ tability volatility may be extremely high. An example of this is the changes in the average risk weights of assets. Business size - if mechanisms, personnel, and IT infrastructure can not support business growth, the risk of bankruptcy is high. Project risk - is a major concern for many businesses, particularly the impact of several current projects. Security - Bank assets must be secured against both internal and external theft. Such assets include not only the company’s money or other securities / loans, but also the client’s assets and the intellectual property of the Þ rm. The risk of natural disasters - natural disasters are one of the main causes of Þ nancial loss. Another deÞ nition of operational risk is that of an unexpected loss due to internal control deÞ ciencies or information systems caused by a human error, system failures and control. In conclusion, the operational risk is deÞ ned as follows: Operational risk is the bank’s exposure to potential Þ nancial losses. Such losses can be caused by internal or external events, trends and changes that have not been captured and prevented by corporate governance and internal control, systems, policies, organization, ethical standards or other control elements and standards of the Þ rm. Such losses exclude those already captured by other risk categories, such as market risk, credit risk or strategic / business risk. • QuantiÞ cation of operational risk The steps to be followed by any quantiÞ cation method are as follows: identifying a method that clearly describes the exposure to operational risk, risk factors and potential losses; Establishing a relationship between exposure


to risk, risk factors and potential losses; Lowering low frequency but high frequency events and high impact but low frequency impacts and including the Þ nal model and reports in business and management processes. When considering market or credit risk, many institutions resort to a gradual approach, clarifying successively the following: risk deÞ nition; Identifying risk factors; Measuring exposure to these factors; Risk calculation (based on a number of assumptions such as the speciÞ c application of exposure risk factors and the exposure time to these factors and the presumed conÞ dence interval).

Gradual approaches to market, credit and operational risk analysisMarket risk Credit risk Operational risk

DeÞ ning types of risk

Interest rate riskMarket price risk of sharesThe risk of goodsCurrency risk

Risk of loss of counterpartyRisk of concentrationRisk of credit deteriorationCountry risk

Risk of controlProcess riskPersonnel risk

IdentiÞ cation of risk factors

Basic values and volatility curve within a time frame

The credit rating migration matrix, loss rates and earnings rates

Incorrect trading detailsMessages received wrongAging technologyFraud / conspiracyDegree of staff sickness / turnoverMoralCulture

Exposure measurement of risk factors

Net cash-ß ows within a time frame

Market quote, potential exposure

Volume of transactionsUse of information capacityThe level of missed conÞ rmationsUnconcerned thingsSettlements failedThe degree of burden sharing

Risk calculation

Risk Value Method (Parameter VaR)Exposures, risk factors and the correlation between them

VaR method for credit risk, exposure multiplied by unrecoverable loss and their correlation

VaR method for operational risk: exposures multiplied by probability.Generate loss distribution and for a speciÞ ed conÞ dence interval, measure unexpected loss

Calculation of proÞ t and loss and explanation of sources

Changes in risk factors / daytime transaction exposures explain the daily change in proÞ t and loss

Changes in risk factors explain the monthly variation in the value of credit portfolios

Volatility of residual earnings after removing the effect of market, credit, and strategic business risk

Comparing risk with proÞ tability

Parameter VaR methodExposures, risk factors and their correlation

VaR method for credit risk, exposure multiplied by unrecoverable loss and their correlation

Calculating the incremental effect


• Qualitative approaches to measuring operational risk Most approaches to operational risk and internal control were of a qualitative nature, so that operational risk identiÞ cation was measured in words rather than in Þ gures. A common approach is to review the way the bank manages operational risk and then conduct a risk assessment based on the objective view of an experienced person. Much of this task was carried out in the past by internal audit. In most banks, until recently there were no other departments involved in the operational risk assessment except internal audit. In the USA, in September 1992 a framework document on internal control was created for all Þ rms, not just for Þ nancial institutions. All of the key concepts in this document have been incorporated into the American Standards of Audit (SAA). SAA 55 stipulates that internal control is a process by the board of directors of the company, management and others, intended to provide assurance on the fulÞ llment of the following objectives: veracity of Þ nancial reports; The efÞ ciency of operations and compliance with applicable laws and regulations. Internal control is a process and therefore a series of actions target the activities of a company. The components of internal control actions are as follows: Activity control - provides the framework for activities and control. Includes integrity and ethical values of the Þ rm. - Risk assessment - the bank must monitor the risks it faces, including

operational risk. You need to set business goals along with sales, production, marketing, Þ nancial, and other activities so you can operate efÞ ciently in different departments. The bank has to establish mechanisms to identify, analyze and manage the related risks.

- Control actions - control actions and procedures must be established and implemented to ensure that the measures identiÞ ed by the management are necessary for the risks and is actually carried out.

- Information and communication - these are the activities of information and communication systems that allow the receipt and exchange of information necessary to manage, manage and control operations.

- Monitoring - the entire process needs to be monitored and if necessary made changes. In this way, the system can react dynamically, changing, if required.

The Þ ve components reinforce the three mentioned objectives: Þ nancial reporting; Application and operations. Risks (or weaknesses in internal control) can be ranked according to priorities and resources allocated to them. The ordering takes into account the


magnitude and likelihood of loss. The method is subjective and depends on the experience of the auditor, the manager of the Þ rm or the operational risk manager. A better approach is to quantify operational risk.

Conclusion Operational risk management is a process that is critical to the smooth running of banking and avoiding Þ nancial losses. Ideally, as required by the new Basel Accord, banks should be able to allocate their own resources to apply appropriate operational risk management. The principles outlined in the above agreement also include measures deriving from internal evaluation procedures adopted by banks. Operational risk is particularly complex if we consider its components and can not be ignored in any way because, as deÞ ned, it expose the Þ nancial institution to losses that can hardly be recovered (image damage, events that Falls into the category of security risks, etc.). Measurement, adequate quantiÞ cation of operational risk and rigorous application of procedures associated with the internal control process are sine qua non conditions for professional banking risk management.

References 1. Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S. and Mitton, T. (2009). Determinants of vertical

integration: Financial development and contracting costs. Journal of Finance, 64, 1251-1290

2. Aebi, V., Sabato, G. and Schmid, M. (2012). Risk management, corporate governance, and bank performance in the Þ nancial crisis. Journal of Banking and Finance, 36, 3213-3226

3. Almeida, H., Campello, M. (2007). Financial constraints, asset tangibility, and corporate investment. Review of Financial Studies, 20, 1429-1460

4. Altig, D., Christiano, L., Eichenbaum, M. and Linde, J. (2011). Firm-speciÞ c capital, nominal rigidities and the business cycle. Review of Economic Dynamics, 14.2, pp. 225-247

5. Anghelache, C., Bodo, G. and Marinescu, A.I. (2017). Asymmetric information in case of decision under risk. Romanian Statistical Review, Supplement, no. 1, pp. 22-36

6. Anghelache, C., Manole, A., Anghel, M.G., and Soare, D.V. (2016). Statistical-econometric model used to analyze the operational and insolvency risks. Theoretical and Applied Economics, Volume XXIII, No.3 (608), Autumn, pp. 221-228

7. Anghelache, C. and Bodo, G. (2016). Theoretical aspects regarding systemic risk and managerial decisions during the crisis. Romanian Statistical Review, Supplement, no. 12, pp. 109-116

8. Anghelache, C., Anghel, M.G. and Diaconu, A. (2016). Risk Aversion and Individual Preferences Modelling. Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Issue 1, pp. 81-86

9. Anghelache, C., Manole, A., Anghel, M.G., Popovici, M., Soare, D.V. (2015). Modele de analiz a riscului Þ nanciar. ART ECO - Review of Economic Studies and Research, Vol. 6/No. 3, pp. 55-63



11. Anghelache, C. (2010). Management of the Environment and Environmental Risk. Metalurgia International, nr. 5, Editura tiin iÞ c F.M.R., pp. 206-212

12. Anghelache, C. (2010). Metode i modele de m surare a riscurilor i performan elor Þ nanciar-bancare – Edi ia a II-a, Editura Artifex Bucure ti

13. Anghelache, G.V., and Anghelache, C. (2009). Risk and proÞ tability – Basis of the Þ nancial analysis. Metalurgia Interna ional, Vol. XIV, nr. 12 Special Issue, Editura tiin iÞ c F.M.R., pp. 120-121

14. Atkeson, A. and Kehoe, P. (2005). Modeling and Measuring Organization Capital. Journal of Political Economy, 113(5), 1026-1053

15. Bloom, N. (2009). The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks. Econometrica, 77, pp. 623–685

16. Bolton, P., Chen, H., and Wang, N. (2013). Market timing, investment, and risk management. Journal of Financial Economics, 109, pp. 40-62

17. Bonaimé, A., Hankins, K. and Harford, J. (2014). Financial ß exibility, risk management, and payout choice. Review of Financial Studies, 27, pp. 1074-1101

18. Emm, E., Gay, G. and Lin, C. (2007). Choices and best practice in corporate risk management disclosure. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 19, pp. 82-93

19. Engle, R.F. (2011). Long-Term Skewness and Systemic Risk. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 9, pp. 437–468

20. GarÞ nkel, J., and Hankins, K.W. (2011). The role of risk management in mergers and waves. Journal of Financial Economics, 101, 515–532

21. Osterman, P. (2006). The Wage effects of High Performance Work Organizations in Manufacturing. Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 59(2), 187-204

22. Rampini, A., and Viswanathan, S. (2010). Collateral, risk management, and the distribution of debt capacity. Journal of Finance, 65, pp. 2293–2322

23. Rosenberg, J. and Schuermann, T. (2006). A general approach to integrated risk management with skewed, fat-tailed risks. Journal of Financial Economics, 79, pp.569-614

24. Shenoy, J. and Williams, R. (2017). Trade credit and the joint effects of supplier and customer Þ nancial characteristics. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 29, pp. 68-80

25. Stulz, R.M. (2008). Risk Management Failures: What are They and When do They Happen?. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 20, 58–67

26. Wulf, J. (2007). Authority, Risk and Performance Incentives: Evidence from Division Manager Positions Insider Firms. Journal of Industrial Economics, LV(1), pp. 169-186


Analiza rolului b ncilor comerciale în absorb ia fondurilor europene

Conf. univ. dr. Florin Paul Costel LILEA (ß [email protected])

Universitatea „Artifex” din Bucure tiProf. univ. dr. Alexandru MANOLE ([email protected])

Universitatea „Artifex” din Bucure tiLector univ. dr. Mugurel POPOVICI ([email protected])

Universitatea „Artifex” din Bucure tiDrd. Emilia STANCIU ([email protected])


Abstract În acest articol, autorii au pus accentul pe analiza rolului b ncilor comerciale în absorb ia fondurilor comunitare. Aloc rile de fonduri comunitare nerambursabile pentru rile membre ale Uniunii europene sunt importante deoarece aceste Þ nan ri urm resc dep irea unor diÞ cult i i apropierea tuturor statelor de standardele comunitare. Accentul este pus i pe analiza fondurilor structurale, cu accent pe situa ia înregistrat de unele state membre în accesarea acestor surse de Þ nan are. Fondurile structurale sunt, din p cate, greu de utilizat de statele care au devenit membre ale Uniunii Europene, datorit lipsei de proiecte i posibilit ii de coÞ nan are. Studiile se axeaz i pe analiza comparativ a absorb iei fondurilor europene de România, Ungaria i Lituania. Pentru a reliefa mai elocvent cele aÞ rmate în cadrul acestui studiu sunt prezentate tabele i reprezent ri graÞ ce sugestive. Analiza se poate extinde, inclusiv prin utilizarea unor metode econometrice. Cuvinte cheie: fond comunitar, banc , absorb ie, buget, investi ie ClasiÞ carea JEL: G21, G24

Introducere Fondurile structurale ale UE - cele mai importante dou instrumente bugetare ale UE - au fost insuÞ cient utilizate în multe noi state membre ale UE, în timp ce activitatea de credit a stagnat sau se redreseaz doar încet. O mai bun utilizare a fondurilor structurale poate promova stimularea investi iilor publice i private, consolidarea productivit ii în sectoarele cheie pentru competitivitate i cre tere, oferind, în acela i timp, oportunit i considerabile de coÞ nan are i preÞ nan are pentru sectorul Þ nanciar privat. Actorii Þ nanciari priva i ar putea contribui la mobilizarea fondurilor nerambursabile din UE prin cunoa terea sectoarelor corporatiste locale i prin c utarea continu a conceptelor antreprenoriale i a instrumentelor


Þ nanciare inovatoare. În acest proces, aceasta poate atenua constrângerile legate de coÞ nan area pe care sectorul oÞ cial le-a experimentat, în special în perioadele de consolidare a bugetului. Împreun cu eÞ cien a lor în evaluarea i monitorizarea proiectelor, b ncile comerciale pot aduce dinamismul necesar industriei i serviciilor locale. Grupurile bancare globale au o prezen puternic în Europa Central i de Est. Sucursalele i Þ lialele b ncilor str ine au o cot de pia de aproximativ 75% din totalul activelor sistemului bancar din Ungaria i Letonia i aproape 90% din România. Toate cele trei state membre ale UE au primit sprijin Þ nanciar din partea balan ei de pl i din partea comunit ii Þ nanciare interna ionale. Angajamentul b ncilor mam este, în esen , dublu: în primul rând, Þ lialele din rile desemnate ar trebui s men in tampoane de capital adecvate, iar în al doilea rând, Þ ecare grup bancar ar men ine anumite niveluri de expunere. Cu aceste angajamente, care sunt voluntare, o distructiv „alergat la ie ire” în oricare dintre rile afectate de criz a fost evitat cu succes. Expunerea este considerat net a pasivelor i deÞ nit în termeni generali fa de ar în ansamblu, inclusiv crean e asupra Þ lialei (atât active i capital), credite acordate gospod riilor, întreprinderilor, institu iilor Þ nanciare, precum i obliga iunilor guvernamentale. Finan area Þ lialelor constituie cea mai mare component a expunerii. În general, b ncile i-au îndeplinit angajamentele de expunere, dar au subliniat c într-o economie în sc dere cu cereri de împrumut sc zute, o parte din lichidit ile pe care le de in în Þ lialele lor au r mas inerte în absen a oportunit ilor de investi ii. Intr-adevar, cresterea creditului este inca intalnita in Romania, se mentine in jurul valorii de zero in Ungaria si ramane negativa in Letonia. Având în vedere considerentele de gestionare a riscurilor în cadrul b ncilor, necesit ile de Þ nan are din ce în ce mai mari ale guvernului ar putea Þ doar par ial un r spuns satisf c tor la cererea de oportunit i de investi ii. Prin urmare, o provocare cheie în favoarea progresului este de a revigora economia i de a spori cererea de creditare din partea sectorului privat.

Literature review Dumitrescu i Soare (2014) descriu instrumentele Þ nanciare speciÞ ce fondurilor structurale i de investi ii europene. Anghel, Dumitrescu, Dumitrescu i Ni (2016) se preocup de rolul sistemului bancar în atragerea fondurilor

europene, Berica (2011) dezvolt pe o tem similar . Branten i Purju (2013) descriu instrumentele Þ nanciare cu proÞ l inovativ din cadrul programelor de Þ nan are europene. Beltratti i Stulz (2012) realizeaz o analiz comparativ , la nivel global, a activit ii de creditare. Dornean (2015) se preocup de


impactul fondurilor europene utilizate pentru dezvoltarea la nivel regional, în România. Chava i Purnanandam (2011) evalueaz efectele crizelor bancare asupra unora dintre segmentele de clien i ale acestora. Anghelache (2016, 2015) descrie starea economic la zi a României. Babecky et.al. (2010) se preocup de salariile nominale i reale în Þ rmele europene. Huizinga i Laeven (2012) se preocup de caracteristicile evalu rilor bancare în contextul crizelor Þ nanciare, Calomiris i Nissim (2014) dezvolt pe un subiect similar. Z man i Cristea (2011) analizeaz problemele legate de absorb ia fondurilor structurale în România. Anghelache et.al. (2016) descriu un set de modele pentru studiul absorb iei fondurilor europene, Opritescu (2012) aplic un model de tip Hermin. Anghelache, Soare i Dumitrescu (2016) se preocup de utilizarea platformelor informatice în managementul proiectelor europene. Cassola, Hortacsu i Kastl (2013) evalueaz criza creditelor subprime din 2007, prin prisma instrumentelor B ncii Centrale Europene dedicate fondurilor pe termen scurt. Sauer i Sturm (2007) se preocup de utilitatea regulilor Taylor în în elegerea politicii monetare a BCE. Tosun (2014) construie te o analiz comparativ a absorb iei fondurilor europene cu caracter regional. Lima i Cardenete (2007) se preocup de impactul fondurilor europene asupa economiei regionale. Cetorelli i Goldberg (2012) dezvolt pe tema globaliz rii bancare. Neculita et.al. (2013)

studiaz corela ia dintre integrarea european , resursele Þ nanciare i atragerea de fonduri europene în zona central i est-european . Fender i McGuire (2010) se preocup de corela ia dintre structurile bancare i propagarea interna ional a ocurilor, Schnabl (2012) studiaz propagarea ocurilor generate de lichiditate. Guadalupe i Cunat (2009) analizeaz caracteristicile concuren ei în sectorul Þ nanciar-bancar. Schenone (2010) evalueaz valoriÞ carea de c tre b nci a avantajului lor informa ional. Wehinger (2012) studiaz tranzi ia c tre Þ nan area bazat pe pia .

Metodologia cercet rii i date Fondurile structurale în Uniunea European Activitatea b ncilor, în c utarea lor neîncetat de oportunit i de investi ii, poate Þ inß uen at de fondurile structurale europene în dou moduri. Primul, prin cre terea cererii de împrumuturi, în toate sectoarele economiei, ca urmare direct , la nivel macroeconomic, a utiliz rii fondurilor structurale europene în economiile rilor membre. Al doilea, la nivel microeconomic, b ncile pot participa, activ i direct, la Þ nan area proiectelor eligibile. În aceast lucrare dorim s explor m cel de-al doilea aspect, mai exact rolul pe care b ncile îl pot juca pentru cre terea gradului de absorb ie a fondurilor europene prin implicarea atât în activitatea administrativ de selec ie i monitorizare a proiectelor, cât i în aceea de pre i co-Þ nan are.


Uniunea European a alocat în perioada 2007-2013, un total de 178 mld. Euro, noilor ri membre cu ajutorul a trei instrumente: • Fondul european de dezvoltare regional (FEDR), care Þ nan eaz :

investi ii în întreprinderi (în special IMM-uri) pentru a crea locuri de munc durabile; Infrastructuri legate în special de cercetare i inovare, telecomunica ii, mediu, energie i transport; Instrumente Þ nanciare (fonduri de risc de capital, fonduri de dezvoltare local etc.) pentru a sprijini dezvoltarea regional i local i pentru a stimula cooperarea între ora e i regiuni i asisten a tehnic ;

• Fondul Social European (FSE) care urm re te îmbun t irea ocup rii for ei de munc prin sprijinirea ac iunilor din urm toarele domenii: adaptarea lucr torilor i a întreprinderilor prin programe de înv are de-a lungul vie ii i organiza ii de lucru inovatoare; Accesul la locuri de munc pentru solicitan ii de locuri de munc , omerii, femeile i migran ii; Integrarea social a persoanelor dezavantajate i

combaterea discrimin rii pe pia a muncii i consolidarea capitalului uman prin reformarea sistemelor educa ionale;

• Fondul de coeziune (CF) vizeaz statele membre al c ror venit na ional brut pe cap de locuitor este mai mic de 90% din media comunitar (inclusiv to i cei zece noi membri) i Þ nan eaz activit i în urm toarele categorii: re ele de transport transeuropene i Mediul înconjur tor, inclusiv energia regenerabil , transportul feroviar i cel public.

Aceste trei fonduri reprezint 35% din bugetul Uniunii Europene i au fost alocate în propor ie de 51% celor 10 noi ri membre. În tabelul urm tor este detaliat aceast alocare pe ri.


Fondurile structurale disponibile noilor state membre în compara ie cu UE în ansamblu

Tabel 1

Source: The European Bank Coordination (“Vienna”) Initiative, The Role of Commercial

Banks in the Absorption of EU Funds, Report by the Working Group, 2011, pag. 5

Nevoia de co-Þ nan are Nivelul ratelor de co-Þ nan are a Fondurilor Structurale i de Coeziune ale Uniunii Europene sunt stabilite în func ie de nivelul relativ de dezvoltare al Þ ec rui stat membru beneÞ ciar al acestor Þ nan ri, pe baza obiectivului urm rit pentru Þ ecare politic de coeziune i de tipul fondului utilizat. Astfel, utilizând ca indicator al nivelului de dezvoltare, produsul intern brut, pentru statele membre care au avut un produs intern brut sub 85% din media Uniunii Europene pentru perioada 2011-2013, pentru proiectele Þ nan ate din Fondul European Regional pentru Dezvoltare, Fondul European Social i Fondul de Coeziune, pot Þ Þ nan ate din aceste fonduri pân la 85% din


costurile de investi ii eligibile. Pentru statele mai dezvoltate, procentul variaz între 50 i 85%.

Contribu ia na ional la proiectele Þ nan ate de UE în perioada 2007-2013

GraÞ cul 1

Source: The European Bank Coordination (“Vienna”) Initiative, The Role of Commercial Banks in the Absorption of EU Funds, Report by the Working Group, 2011, pag. 6

În perioada 2007-2013, noile state membre ale Uniunii Europene au alocat pentru co-Þ nan area proiectelor derulate din fonduri europene suma de 37,3 mld. Euro (aprox. 4% din PIB la nivelul anului 2010). Din aceast sum , partea cea mai mare – 33,2 mld. Euro (89%) – a fost alocat în bugetele na ionale, iar diferen a (4,2 mld. Euro) a fost Þ nan at din fonduri private. Dintre cele 12 noi state membre ale Uniunii Europene, 8 au alocat peste 3% din PIB (pentru întreaga perioada considerat ) pentru co-Þ nan area acestor proiecte, trei dintre acestea, Ungaria, Polonia i Bulgaria alocând chiar peste 3,5%, ceea ce, din punct de vedere Þ scal reprezint un efort deosebit. De asemenea, urm rind graÞ cul de mai sus, observ m c numai în cazul a patru state (Polonia, Lituania, Letonia i Estonia), co-Þ nan area proiectelor derulate din fonduri europene a fost asigurat i cu ajutorul fondurilor private. Este de asemenea important de subliniat faptul c , aceast bugetare a fondurilor pentru co-Þ nan are nu trebuie s duc la o cre tere a cheltuielilor publice na ionale, ci mai degrab prin alocarea lor pentru acoperirea unor cheltuieli publice na ionale eligibile de a Þ Þ nan ate pe aceast cale.


Lipsa de absorb ie a fondurilor europene De i statele membre ale Uniunii Europene – i mai ales cele din Europa Central i de Est- au avut la dispozi ie sume importante alocate în cadrul diverselor fonduri de Þ nan are, putem aÞ rma c , pe ansamblu, absorb ia acestora s-a desf urat într-un ritm mult prea lent în majoritatea

rilor. “Campioane” la acest capitol s-au remarcat a Þ România i Bulgaria, care, au mobilizat numai 13% i respectiv 15% din fondurile alocate pentru perioada 2007-2013. De i aceste cifre indic o rat de absorb ie foarte redus , dac sc dem sumele pl tite în avans vom ajunge la ponderi i mai mici, 3% i respectiv 5%. Adoptarea cu întârziere a proiectelor privind direc iile, politicile de coeziune i programele Þ nan ate (chiar i la sfâr itul primului an de implementare, 2007), lipsa capacit ii administrative precum i existen a unei crize economice i Þ nanciare suprapus aproape pe întreg exerci iu (2008-2011) se num r printre cauzele principale care au condus la aceast lips de absorb ie. Pe lâng aceste cauze, în cazul particular al României i Bulgariei, putem identiÞ ca i o alt cauz i anume lipsa de experien i necunoa terea procedurile relevante datorit accederii în Uniunea European în 2007, concomitent cu lansarea acestor programe.

Absorb ia fondurilor UE în statele membre noi i vechi pân la mijlocul anului 2010

GraÞ cul 2




Analizând graÞ cul de mai sus, putem remarca totu i c , dac compar m rata de absorb ie f r avansuri a noilor state membre cu aceea a vechilor state membre diferen a este mic , 9% fa de 11%, iar pentru rata de absorb ie incluzând avansurile ponderea în cazul celor dou grupuri este aceea i (21%).

Absorb ia fondurilor europene în Ungaria, Letonia i România Analizând datele din tabelul urm tor desprindem unele aspecte ediÞ catoare. Astfel, Letonia se bucur de o rat înalt a pl ilor, ceea ce conduce, pe ansamblu, la o bun absorb ie a fondurilor europene. Totu i, datorit unei rate a angajamentelor de 50,5%, evaluarea i selec ia proiectelor se situeaz sub medie. Dintre noile state membre, Ungaria se situeaz la mijlocul clasamentului, în mare parte datorit unei rate ridicate de angajare (64,5%) în ceea ce prive te programele opera ionale pentru dezvoltare regional care au alocate fonduri considerabile (5,8 mld. Euro). În ceea ce prive te situa ia României, observ m c aceasta întâmpin diÞ cult i la toate nivelurile (selec ie i evaluare a proiectelor, implementarea acestora), situa ie datorat unei lipse de capacitate administrativ . Pentru a imbun t i capacitatea administrativ a fost creat un program opera ional cu un buget de 0,2 mld. Euro unde putem aÞ rma c absorb ia este mai bun .

Absorb ia în România, Letonia i Ungaria conform programelor opera ionale

Tabelul 2




SemniÞ ca ia poten ial a implic rii bancilor De i nu pot sprijini direct eforturile de înt rire a capacit ii administrative, b ncile pot, totu i, juca un rol în absorb ia fondurilor europene. În primul rând b ncile pot utiliza cuno tiin ele proprii privind evaluarea i selec ia proiectelor, în cazul fondurilor structurale europene, atât în beneÞ ciul întreprinderilor mici i mijlocii cât i în cel al institu iilor publice. De asemenea, b ncile pot accelera

execu ia proiectelor prin acordarea unei pre-Þ nan ri înaintea acord rii de avansuri de c tre autorit ile care gestioneaz fondurile europene sau simultan cu aceasta. În al treilea rând b ncile ar putea co-Þ nan a proiectele europene, având în vedere c nu toate cheltuielile unui proiect sunt elgibile a Þ Þ nan ate din granturi europene. De fapt, aceasta ar putea Þ cea mai mare oportunitate de a acorda împrumuturi pentru b nci. În tabelul urm tor, am proiectat aceste posibilit i ale b ncilor de acordare a imprumuturilor pentru co-Þ nan area proiectelor europene, într-un procent de 25% din cheltuielile neeligibile ale acestor proiecte. Totodat , am presupus c partea de cheltuial ne-eligibil este egal cu cea posibil a Þ Þ nan at din fonduri europene. În urma calculelor efectuate, rezult c aceast co-Þ nan are ar conduce, în perioada 200-2013 la o cre tere a creditului cu 1,1% în medie pe an pentru Letonia i 1,8% pentru România i Bulgaria. Dac am presupune c rata de co-Þ nan are ar Þ de 50% în loc de 25% desigur aceste cifre s-ar dubla. Deoarece nu toate programele opera ionale prezint acela i interes pentru b nci, valorile calculate reprezint desigur, limita maxim .

Fonduri UE i oportunit i de împrumut în România, Ungaria i Letonia

Tabelul 3

Source: The European Bank Coordination (“Vienna”) Initiative, The Role of Commercial Banks in the Absorption of EU Funds, Report by the Working Group, 2011, pag. 10


De exemplu, suma alocat anual pentru România, în cadrul Programului pentru Competitivitate Economic este de 430 mil. Euro dintre care 85% co-Þ nan at din fonduri europene. Presupunând c partea de cheltuial ne-eligibil este egal cu cea eligibil i considerând o rat de co-Þ nan are de 25% putem previziona un volum suplimentar de creditare din partea b ncilor de 107,5 mil. Euro anual, ceea ce ar conduce la expansiune a creditului de 0,25% pe an.

Rolul b ncilor comerciale din România i Bulgaria în cre terea gradului de absorb ie a fondurilor europene

Bulgaria and Romania are confronted with the greatest challenge in absorbing EU structural funds. The overall absorption rate is low relative to both funds allocated and national income overall, and, given the context of an ongoing economic and credit contraction, national authorities are committed to taking steps to raise absorption, including through a closer involvement of commercial banks. Representatives of parent banks of the large foreign-owned banks operating in Romania and Bulgaria agreed that an improvement of EU funds absorption coupled with an increased involvement of banks in this process might offer alternative investment opportunities for banks and, consequently, could contribute to reviving credit activity.

Concluzii Fondurile structurale ale UE reprezint resurse importante pentru statele membre ale UE. Aceste fonduri sunt deosebit de importante pentru noile state membre, pentru care fondurile care urmeaz s Þ e pl tite ar putea ajunge pân la 2% din PIB pe an pentru restul perspectivei Þ nanciare actuale. De i ratele de absorb ie au fost, de asemenea, sc zute în vechile state membre, lipsa capacit ii de a absorbi mai bine fondurile UE a fost deosebit de acut în noile state membre. Acestea din urm s-au confruntat în ultimul timp cu o cre tere economic redus , cu constrângeri în Þ nan area bancar pentru sectorul privat, precum i cu constrângeri bugetare privind investi iile publice. Majoritatea statelor membre au decis s gestioneze fondurile structurale în mod direct sau prin intermediul agen iilor de stat. Cu toate acestea, în noile state membre, aceast abordare a fost confruntat DiÞ cult i considerabile datorit constrângerilor în capacitatea institu ional i adoptarea relativ recent a acquis-ului comunitar înainte de etapele de aderare din 2004 i 2007. Actuala criz Þ nanciar oblig guvernele s exploreze mecanisme mai eÞ ciente pentru acordarea de granturi UE în sprijinul companiilor i pentru a reduce Lipsa de Þ nan are în sectorul public, în


special având în vedere faptul c fondurile neutilizate nu vor mai Þ disponibile la trei ani de la acordarea pentru prima dat a fondurilor neutilizate. Mai multe state membre au experimentat utilizarea b ncilor ca organe intermediare în afara sectorului public pentru a accelera absorb ia fondurilor UE, în special în ceea ce prive te canalizarea fondurilor Pentru IMM-uri. B ncile pot îndeplini, inter alia, func iile de evaluare a proiectelor, pl i de fonduri, monitorizare i raportare c tre administra iile publice i inspec ii la fa a locului. Prin implicarea b ncilor comerciale în aceste activit i, trebuie abordate o serie de preocup ri. În primul rând, b ncile arat în mod legitim interesele lor de afaceri în furnizarea de împrumuturi comerciale care se concentreaz asupra bancabilit ii proiectelor, ceea ce nu corespunde neap rat motiva iei de interes public care st la baza Þ nan rii acordate de UE. Acest lucru poate duce la conß icte de interese atunci când b ncile sunt implicate atât în selectarea proiectelor, cât i în Þ nan are. Exist , de asemenea, îndoieli asupra faptului c acele b nci care sunt în cele din urm motivate prin dezvoltarea rela iilor cu clien ii priva i de durat vor ac iona ca agen i impar iali pentru autorit ile de management în selectarea i monitorizarea proiectelor. Aceast preocupare poate Þ împ rt it i de c tre supraveghetorii din sectorul bancar, care ar putea avea temeri în

ceea ce prive te expunerile mari sau o structur a veniturilor neechilibrat sau nesustenabil . În al doilea rând, din perspectiva autorit ilor na ionale de gestionare, un proces de achizi ii adecvat va trebui s identiÞ ce b ncile caliÞ cate care furnizeaz astfel de servicii la un pre competitiv. Pl ile publice c tre b ncile comerciale vor trebui s r mân în afara preocup rilor legate de ajutorul de stat, pentru a evita denaturarea concuren ei. O a treia preocupare poate ap rea din cauza implic rii b ncilor într-un proces care a fost frecvent criticat pentru c a condus la fraud i la abuzul de fonduri. Acest lucru poate expune b ncile la anumite riscuri de reputa ie, în special în cazul în care beneÞ ciarii sunt mari în raport cu bilan ul general al b ncii. Preocup rile exprimate în mass-media sau inute de public asupra integrit ii clien ilor cheie ai b ncii pot implica gestionarea bancar pentru a colabora în practici frauduloase i ar putea conduce la instabilitatea rela iilor de Þ nan are ale b ncii, inclusiv a depozitelor cu am nuntul. În acela i timp, acest risc subliniaz poten ialul de implicare a b ncilor, care, prin rela iile lor stabilite cu clien ii, vor examina cu aten ie proiectele pe care le angajeaz i pe care le vor sim i în pozi ia de a le monitoriza în mod continuu.


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ANALYZING THE ROLE OF COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE ABSORPTION OF

EUROPEAN FUNDS

Assoc. prof. Florin Paul Costel LILEA PhD (ß [email protected])

„Artifex” University of Bucharest Prof. Alexandru MANOLE PhD ([email protected])

„Artifex” University of Bucharest Lecturer Mugurel POPOVICI PhD ([email protected])

„Artifex” University of BucharestEmilia STANCIU Ph.D Student ([email protected])


Abstract In this article, the authors focused on analyzing the role of commercial banks in absorbing community funds. Allocations of non-reimbursable Community funds for the member countries of the European Union are important because these funds aim to overcome some difÞ culties and bring all the countries closer to the EU standards. Emphasis is also placed on the analysis of structural funds, with an emphasis on the situation of some Member States in accessing these sources of funding. Structural funds are, unfortunately, difÞ cult to use by the states that have become members of the European Union due to the lack of projects and the possibility of co-Þ nancing. The studies also focus on the comparative analysis of the absorption of European funds from Romania, Hungary and Lithuania. To illustrate more clearly what has been said in this study, tables and graphic representations are presented. The analysis can be extended, including through the use of econometric methods. Keywords: community fund, bank, absorption, budget, investment JEL ClassiÞ cation: G21, G24

Introduction EU structural funds – the second most important budgetary instruments of the EU – have been underutilised in many new EU Member States, whereas credit activity has been stagnant or recovering only slowly. Better utilisation of structural funds may hold the promise of stimulating public and private investment, strengthening productivity in sectors that are key for competitiveness and growth while, at the same time, offering considerable co-Þ nancing and pre-Þ nancing opportunities for the private Þ nancial sector.


Private Þ nancial actors could contribute to leverage EU grant funds through their knowledge of local corporate sectors and on-going search for innovative entrepreneurial concepts and Þ nancial instruments. In the process this may alleviate constraints on co-Þ nancing that the ofÞ cial sector has experienced, in particular in times of budget consolidation. Coupled with their efÞ ciency in project evaluation and monitoring commercial banks may bring the needed dynamism to local industry and services. Global banking groups have a strong presence in Central and Eastern Europe. Branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks have a market share of about 75 per cent in the total assets of the banking system in Hungary and Latvia and close to 90 per cent in Romania. All three EU Member States have received balance of payments support from the international Þ nancial community. The commitment of the parent banks is essentially twofold: Þ rst, subsidiaries in the designated countries were to maintain adequate capital buffers and second, each bank group would maintain certain exposure levels. With these commitments, which are voluntary, a destructive ’run to the exit’ in any of the crisis-stricken countries was successfully averted. Exposure is considered net of liabilities and deÞ ned in broad terms vis-à-vis the country as a whole, including claims on the subsidiary (both assets and capital), loans to households, Þ rms, Þ nancial institutions as well as government bonds. The funding of the subsidiaries constitutes the largest exposure component. Banks have generally fulÞ lled their exposure commitments, but have pointed out that in a shrinking economy with subdued loan demand, some of the liquidity they held in their subsidiaries remained idle in the absence of investment opportunities. Indeed, credit growth is still subdued in Romania, hovers around zero in Hungary and remains negative in Latvia. Given risk management considerations within banks, the rising Þ nancing needs of the government could only be partially a satisfactory response to the request for investment opportunities. Therefore, a key challenge going forward is to reinvigorate the economy and increase the demand for credit by the private sector.

Literature review Dumitrescu and Soare (2014) describe Þ nancial instruments speciÞ c to European structural and investment funds. Anghel, Dumitrescu, Dumitrescu and Ni (2016) are concerned about the role of the banking system in attracting European funds, Berica (2011) is developing on a similar theme. Branten and Purju (2013) describe the innovative Þ nancial instruments of European funding programs. Beltratti and Stulz (2012) perform a global benchmarking of lending activity. Dornean (2015) is concerned about the


impact of European funds used for regional development in Romania. Chava and Purnanandam (2011) assess the effects of bank crises on some of their client segments. Anghelache (2016, 2015) describes the up-to-date state of the economy of Romania. Babecky et.al. (2010) is concerned about nominal and real salaries in European Þ rms. Huizinga and Laeven (2012) are concerned about the characteristics of bank assessments in the context of Þ nancial crises, Calomiris and Nissim (2014) are developing on a similar subject. Zaman and Cristea (2011) analyze the problems related to absorption of structural funds in Romania. Anghelache et.al. (2016) describe a set of models for studying the absorption of European funds, Opritescu (2012) applies a Hermin model. Anghelache, Soare and Dumitrescu (2016) are concerned about the use of IT platforms in European project management. Cassola, Hortacsu and Kastl (2013) assess the 2007 subprime credit crunch in the light of the European Central Bank’s short-term funding instruments. Sauer and Sturm (2007) are concerned about the usefulness of Taylor’s rules in understanding the monetary policy of the ECB. Tosun (2014) builds a comparative analysis of the absorption of European regional funds. Lima and Cardenete (2007) is concerned about the impact of European funds on the regional economy. Cetorelli and Goldberg (2012) are developing on bank globalization. Neculita et.al. (2013) studies the correlation between European integration, Þ nancial resources and attracting European funds to the Central and Eastern European region. Fender and McGuire (2010) are concerned about the correlation between bank structures and international shock propagation, Schnabl (2012) is studying the spread of liquidity shocks. Guadalupe and Cunat (2009) analyze the characteristics of competition in the Þ nancial and banking sector. Schenone (2010) assesses the value of their informational advantage by banks. Wehinger (2012) studies the transition to market-based funding.

Methodology and data Structural Funds in the European Union The activity of banks, in their constant search for investment opportunities, can be inß uenced by European structural funds in two ways. Firstly, by increasing demand for loans in all sectors of the economy, as a direct result, at macroeconomic level, of the use of European structural funds in the economies of the member countries. The second, at microeconomic level, banks can actively and directly participate in the Þ nancing of eligible projects. In this paper, we want to explore the second aspect, namely the role banks can play in increasing the absorption of European funds by involving them both in the administrative selection and monitoring of projects as well as in the pre and co-Þ nancing.


The European Union has allocated a total of € 178 billion to the new member states between 2007 and 2013 using three instruments: • the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), which Þ nances: investment in companies (in particular SMEs) to create sustainable jobs; infrastructure linked notably to research and innovation, telecommunications, environment, energy and transport; Þ nancial instruments (capital risk funds, local development funds, etc.) to support regional and local development and to foster cooperation between towns and regions and technical assistance; • the European Social Fund (ESF) which seeks to improve employment by supporting actions in the following areas: adapting workers and enterprises through lifelong learning schemes and innovative working organisations; access to employment for job seekers, the unemployed, women and migrants; social integration of disadvantaged people and combating discrimination in the job market and strengthening human capital by reforming education systems; • the Cohesion Fund (CF) is aimed at Member States whose Gross National Income per inhabitant is less than 90 per cent of the Community average (this includes all ten new members) and Þ nances activities under the following categories: trans-European transport networks and environment including renewable energy, rail and public transport. These three funds account for 35% of the European Union budget and have been allocated to 51% of the 10 new member countries. The following table details country allocation.


Structural funds available to the new Member States compared to EU as a whole

Table 1



The need for co-Þ nancing The level of co-Þ nancing rates for the Structural and Cohesion Funds of the European Union is determined by the relative development level of each beneÞ ciary Member State on the basis of the objective pursued for each cohesion policy and the type of fund used. Thus, using gross domestic product as an indicator of the level of development for Member States that had a Gross Domestic Product below 85% of the European Union average for the period 2011-2013, for projects funded by the European Regional Development Fund, the European Social Fund and the Fund Of Cohesion, may be Þ nanced from these funds up to 85% of the eligible investment costs. For more developed countries, the percentage varies between 50 and 85%.


National contribution to EU funded projects in 2007-2013Figure 1



Over the period 2007-2013, the new EU Member States have allocated € 37.3bn (approximately 4% of GDP in 2010) to the co-Þ nancing of projects from European funds. Of this amount, the largest share - € 33.2 billion (89%) - was allocated to national budgets, and the difference (€ 4.2 billion) was funded by private funds. Of the 12 new Member States of the European Union, 8 have allocated over 3% of GDP (for the entire period considered) for the co-Þ nancing of these projects, three of them Hungary, Poland and Bulgaria allocating even more than 3.5% from a Þ scal point of view is a great effort. Also, following the graph above, we note that only four countries (Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) have co-Þ nanced projects funded by European funds with private funds. It is also important to underline that this budgeting of co-Þ nancing funds should not lead to an increase in national public spending but rather by allocating them to cover eligible national public expenditure to be Þ nanced in this way.

Lack of absorption of European funds Although the Member States of the European Union - and especially those in Central and Eastern Europe - had at their disposal important sums allocated under the various funding funds, we can say that, overall, their absorption took place at a much slower rate In most countries. „Champions”


in this chapter were Romania and Bulgaria, which mobilized only 13% and 15% respectively of the funds allocated for the period 2007-2013. Although these Þ gures indicate a very low absorption rate, if we lower the amounts paid in advance, we will reach even lower weights, 3% and 5%, respectively.The late adoption of the draft guidelines on cohesion, cohesion policy and the programs funded (even at the end of the Þ rst year of implementation, 2007), the lack of administrative capacity and the existence of an economic and Þ nancial crisis overlapping throughout the exercise (2008-2011) Among the main causes that led to this lack of absorption. Besides these causes, in the particular case of Romania and Bulgaria, we can identify another cause, namely the lack of experience and the lack of knowledge of the relevant procedures due to the accession to the European Union in 2007, at the same time with the launch of these programs.

Absorption of EU funds in new and old Member States until mid-2010Figure 2



Analyzing the graph above, however, we can note that if we compare the rate of absorption without advance payments of the new Member States to that of the old Member States the difference is small, 9% compared to 11%, and for the absorption rate including advances, Two groups is the same (21%).


Absorption of European funds in Hungary, Latvia and RomaniaAnalyzing the data in the following table, we have some important aspects. Thus, Latvia enjoys a high rate of payments, which leads, on the whole, to a good absorption of European funds. However, due to a commitment rate of 50.5%, the evaluation and selection of projects is below average. Among the new Member States, Hungary is at the middle of the ranking, largely due to a high employment rate (64.5%) for regional development operational programs with considerable funds (€ 5.8bn). Regarding the situation of Romania, we note that it faces difÞ culties at all levels (selection and evaluation of projects, their implementation), due to a lack of administrative capacity. To improve administrative capacity, an operational program with a budget of € 0.2 billion was created where we can say that absorption is better.

Absorption in Romania, Latvia and Hungary according to Operational Programmes

Table 2



SemniÞ ca ia poten ial a implic rii b ncilor De i nu pot sprijini eforturile directe de consolidare a capacit ii administrative, b ncile pot, totu i, s joace un rol în absorb ia fondurilor europene. În primul rând, b ncile pot utiliza cuno tin ele proprii privind evaluarea i selec ia proiectelor, în cazul fondurilor structurale europene, atât


în beneÞ ciul întreprinderilor mici i mijlocii cât i în cel al institu iilor publice. De asemenea, b ncile pot accelera executarea proiectelor prin acordarea unei preÞ nan ri înainte de acordarea avansurilor de c tre autorit ile care gestioneaz fondurile europene sau simultan cu acestea. Al treilea rând ar putea coÞ nan a proiectele europene, având în vedere c toate cheltuielile unui proiect nu sunt Þ nan ate din Þ nan ri europene. De fapt, aceasta ar putea Þ cea mai mare oportunitate de a acorda împrumuturi pentru b nci. În tabelul urm tor, am proiectat aceste posibilit i ale b ncilor de acordare a unor împrumuturi pentru coÞ nan area proiectelor europene, într-un procent de 25% din cheltuielile neeligibile ale acestor proiecte. Totodat , am presupus c partea de cheltuial ne-eligibil este egal cu cea care poate Þ Þ nan at din fonduri europene. În urma calculelor efectuate, rezult c aceast coÞ nan are ar conduce, în perioada 200-2013, la o cre tere a creditului cu 1,1% în medie pe an pentru Letonia i 1,8% pentru România i Bulgaria. Dac am presupune c rata de coÞ nan are ar Þ de 50% în loc de 25%, desigur, aceste cifre s-ar dubla. Deoarece nu toate programele opera ionale prezint acela i interes pentru b nci, valorile calculate reprezint desigur, limita maxim .

EU funds and lending opportunities in Romania, Hungary and LatviaTable 3




For example, the annual allocation for Romania under the Economic Competitiveness Program amounts to € 430 million, of which 85% is co-Þ nanced by European funds. Assuming that the non-eligible expenditure side is equal to the eligible one and considering a 25% co-Þ nancing rate, we can predict an additional amount of bank credit of 107.5 million Euros annually, which would lead to an expansion of the Credit of 0.25% per year.

The role of commercial banks in Romania and Bulgaria in increasing the absorption of European funds

Bulgaria and Romania are confronted with the greatest challenge in absorbing EU structural funds. The overall absorption rate is low relative to both funds allocated and national income overall, and, given the context of an ongoing economic and credit contraction, national authorities are committed to taking steps to raise absorption, including through a closer involvement of commercial banks. Representatives of parent banks of the large foreign-owned banks operating in Romania and Bulgaria agreed that an improvement of EU funds absorption coupled with an increased involvement of banks in this process might offer alternative investment opportunities for banks and, consequently, could contribute to reviving credit activity.

Conclusions The EU structural funds constitute signiÞ cant resources available to EU Member States. These funds are particularly important for the new Member States, for which the funds yet to be disbursed could amount to up to 2 per cent of GDP per year for the remainder of the current Þ nancial perspective. While absorption rates have been also low in the old Member States, the lack of capacity to better absorb EU funds has been particularly acute in the new Member States. The latter have been lately confronted with subdued economic growth, constraints in bank funding to the private sector as well as budgetary constraints on public investment. The majority of Member States have decided to manage structural funds directly or through state agencies. However, in the new Member States this approach has been faced with sizeable difÞ culties given the constraints in institutional capacity, and the relatively recent adoption of the EU acquis prior to the accession rounds in 2004 and 2007. The current Þ nancial crisis forces governments to explore more efÞ cient mechanisms for delivering EU grants in support of companies and to reduce Þ nancing gaps in the public sector, in particular in view of the fact that unutilised funds will no longer be available three years after they were Þ rst granted.


Several Member States have experimented with utilising banks as intermediary bodies outside the public sector to accelerate EU funds absorption, in particular in channelling funds to SMEs. Banks may perform, inter alia, the functions of project assessment, fund disbursements, monitoring and reporting to public administrations and on-site inspections. By involving commercial banks in these activities a number of concerns need to be addressed. First, banks look legitimately after their business interests in the provision of commercial loans focussing on the bankability of projects, which not necessarily matches the public interest motivation behind the grant Þ nancing by the EU. This may lead to conß icts of interest when banks are involved in both the selection of projects and Þ nancing. There may be also doubts that those banks which are ultimately motivated by developing lasting client relationships with private clients will act as impartial agents for the Managing Authorities in project selection and monitoring. This concern may also be shared by banking sector supervisors which may have apprehensions regarding large exposures or an unbalanced or unsustainable earnings structure. Second, from the perspective of the national Managing Authorities, a suitable procurement process will need to identify qualiÞ ed banks delivering such services at a competitive price. Public payments to commercial banks will need to stay clear of concerns over state aid, to avoid the distortion of competition. A third concern may arise from involving banks in a process that has been frequently criticised for leading to fraud and misuse of funds. This may expose banks to certain reputational risks, in particular where recipients are large relative to the bank’s overall balance sheet. Concerns expressed in the media or held by the public over integrity of key bank clients, may implicate bank management for colluding in fraudulent practices, and could lead to instability in the bank’s funding relationships, including from retail deposits. At the same time, this risk underlines the potential from involving banks, which through their established customer relationships will carefully scrutinize projects they commit funding to, and which they will feel in a position to monitor on an ongoing basis.

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O anchet statistic despre oportunitatea unui program extra colar (atelier de consiliere

spiritual ) i unele interac iuni speciÞ ce

Prof. univ. dr. habil. Gheorghe S VOIU Conf. univ. dr. Mihaela Gabriela NEACSU Masterand prof. Cristina DURANUniversitatea din Pite ti

Abstract M sura în care unii elevi ar dori s urmeze un program extra colar într-un spa iu special (atelier de consiliere spiritual ) în care s g seasc r spunsuri de la un profesor la întreb rile lor despre multe din fr mânt rile lor suß ete ti i cuantiÞ carea unor asocieri poten iale în cadrul procesului educa ional între

opinii religioase ale copiilor i ale p rin ilor, extins sau restrâns la no iunea de disciplin predat în coal , precum i alte câteva corela ii între diver i factori explicativi, în paralel cu identiÞ carea unor valori generale i morale ale religiei i unele ierahii legate de surse ale opiniilor copiilor au constituit subiectul acestei

cercet ri psihopedagogice axate pe metode i instrumente statistice. Cercetarea în sine este simultan un studiu am nun it axat pe un chestionar investigativ, efectuat cu scopul de a cunoa te oportunitatea programului i de a cuantiÞ ca opinii despre nevoia unei consilieri spiritule, dar i o tentativ de ierarhizare i corelare a unor motiva ii i rela ii prin simbolism statistico - matematic. Din cele 10 ipoteze urm rite în articol opt sunt validate, iar confruntarea statistic între e antionul p rin ilor i cel al elevilor ca actori ai actului educa ional este revelatorie la Þ nal. Cuvinte cheie: anchet statistic , ipoteza cercet rii, studiu psihopedagogic, ierarhizare statistic , matrice de corela ie, E-views. CodiÞ care JEL: C12, C46, I 21, Z12.

1. INTRODUCTION În literatura psihopedagogic se remarc câteva procese sau fenomene demograÞ ce, economice, sociale care pot s majoreze impactul i importan a unui program de consiliere: a) ruralitatea care se p streaz structural peste media european (România are una dintre cele mai mari rate de ruralitate din Uniunea European , din 1987 când a abia a ajuns la paritatea rural –urban i atins 50% diminuându-se doar cu 6-7 % în dou decenii i jum tate), ceea ce conform unui nivel de cultur mult mai sc zut implic solu ia consilierii); b) tendin ele accelerate de îmb trânire a popula iei (în 2015, popula ia de peste 65 de ani a atins la nivel na ional 17,6% din popula ia rural i 13,6% din popula ia municipiilor


i ora elor) induc un proces necesar de consiliere spiritual cu impact i asupra nepo ilor; c) migra ia interna ional deÞ nitiv sau temporar , clasic sau în re ea, în c utarea unor locuri de munc (inclusiv mai bine pl tite) a unui num r foarte mare de p rin i (între 3 i 4 milioane de locuitori ai României reprezentând aproape 40-50% din popula ia activ ) oblig i ea la o consiliere necesar pentru copiii r ma i acas cu bunic, unchi, m tu i, alte rude sau între in tori temporari etc.; d) abandonul colar destul de ridicat de i cert ilegal conform Constitu iei, care garanteaz nou clase obligatorii în România a atins cea mai mare valoare european înc din 2015 cu o rat de p r sire timpurie de 19,1% ceea ce impune o consiliere intens atât a p rin ilor cât i a elevilor (dincolo de identiÞ carea unor resurse Þ nanciare care s diminueze acest indicator la circa 11%, pân în 2020); e) evolu ia u or ascendent în România a ratei suicidului la 100000 de locuitori, cu identiÞ carea i consilierea atent a popula iei expuse, care a dep it valoarea de 25o

/oooo la b rba i i 5o/oooo la femei (conform sursei de date disponibile la

http://www.insse.ro/cms/Þ les/Web_IDD_BD_ro/index.htm). Grupurile int ale unor investiga ii sociologice, sociopedagogice i statistice pot reuni în conceptul de “popula ie consiliabil ” nu numai elevii sau absolven ii unor procese didactice, dar i p rin ii sau între in torii legali ai copiiilor (bunici, unchi, m tu i, alte rude etc.) rezulta i din procese de migra ie contemporan , ca persoane descurajate din pia a muncii, provenite din omeri i care conform Biroului Interna ional al Muncii (BIM) au dep it ase luni f r a se angaja într-un alt loc de munc , persoane cu st ri depresive

incipiente sau evolutive, persoane care au abandonat orice tip de colectivitate ( coal , familie etc.), persoane care au suferit traume relative recent cu impact semniÞ cativ în viitor (in familie, societate etc.), persoane în vârst , singure sau abandonate prin procese de excluziune social (de vârsta „a treia” peste 65 de ani sau chiar „a patra” peste 80 de ani), persoane cu dizabilit i care tr iesc în medii mai pu in coezive i educate (S voiu, 2006). Procesul educa ional primar sau gimanazial este trinitar, Þ ind realizat în debutul s u prin contribu ia a trei actori: elevul, p rintele i profesorul. Aceast triplet descrie complet, dar i complex un spa iu educa ional scenic i geometric, triunghiular ini ial, dar care devine rapid piramidal prin interac iuni i asocieri. IdentiÞ carea unui grup int pentru cercetarea de fa a vizat complexitatea spa iului educa ional i valoriÞ carea acesteia în vederea contur rii oportunit ii de a oferi unora dintre copii, un program extra colar (în afara orelor de clas ), într-un spa iu special (atelier de consiliere spiritual ) în care s poat întreba un profesor despre multe din fr mânt rile lor suß ete ti se încadreaz în linii mari în grupurile generale care solicit de regul consiliere, dar implic i un al doilea grup în oglind sau reß ectat, respectiv pe cel al p rin ilor sau între in torilor legali ai elevilor.


2. METODOLOGIA CERCET RII Din ra iuni de promptitudine i tratament unitar în observare, dar pornind i de la justiÞ c rile prezentate anterior, tipul de cercetare valoriÞ cat (psihopedagogic sau sociologic ) axat pe observare riguroas pe baz de chestionar a fost ancheta statistic (valoriÞ când metode i instrumente pur statistice), iar perioada realiz rii acesteia a fost aceea anterioar s rb torilor religioase speciÞ ce sfâr itului iernii (mai concret primele dou s ptâmâni din luna decembrie 2016, care coincide cu Þ nalul de trimestru colar i intrarea în vacan a de iarn a elevilor). Principalele ipoteze de lucru au plecat de la tratarea ini ial de o manier distinct a Þ ec ruia dintre cele dou grupuri int de elevi i respectiv p rin ii acestora, cu identiÞ carea într-un chestionar a unor aspecte speciÞ ce Þ ec ruia (elev - chestionar 1 i p rinte - chestionar 2), pilotarea chestionarului, observarea i culegerea datelor, analiza i interpretarea rezultatelor per chestionar i grup int distinctiv, valoriÞ când metode i instrumente statistice caracteristice i în Þ nal o comparare sau confruntare statistic a celor dou grupuri int în oglind (asociate statistic). În esen principalele ipoteze investigative exprimate i detaliate de o manier statistic au fost urm toarele:

Chestionar 1 (elev)H1: asocierea statistic (diÞ cultate, interes, competi ie etc.) a disciplinei de religie cu alte discipline conform mediei ob inute de elevi (responden i), determinat de speciÞ cul disciplinei i caracterul m rturisitor i integrator al acesteia (întrebarea Þ nal din datele de identiÞ care a

elevilor responden i);H2: atingerea unui prag optim paretian de scoruri pozitive de minim 20% (favorabile înÞ in rii unui program extra colar sau atelier de consiliere spiritual ) care s genereze ulterior ca efect realizarea lui conform scorurilor elevilor responden i referitoare la oportunitatea teoretic (chestionar 1 întrebarea 3); H3: atingerea unui prag optim paretian de scoruri pozitive de minim 20% (favorabile înÞ in rii unui program extra colar (atelier de consiliere spiritual ) care s rezulte direct din scorurile elevilor responden i referitoare la oportunitatea teoretic (chestionar 1 întrebarea 4);H4: mama continu s Þ e personajul central al familiei care de ine cel mai ridicat scor ca ata ament i încredere din partea copilului i care i-a inß uen at credin a elevului de mai târziu (întreb rile 7, 8 i 9)

Chestionar 2 (p rinte)H5: atingerea i dep irea unui prag optim paretian de scoruri pozitive de minim 20% (favorabile particip rii la un program extra colar sau atelier de consiliere spiritual ) care s genereze ulterior ca efect realizarea lui, conform scorurilor elevilor responden i referitoare la oportunitatea teoretic (chestionar 2 întrebarea 3);H6: atingerea i dep irea unui prag optim paretian de scoruri pozitive de minim 20% (favorabile particip rii la un program extra colar sau atelier de consiliere spiritual ) care s rezulte direct din scorurile p rin ilor responden i referitoare la oportunitatea teoretic (chestionar 2 întrebarea 4);H7: discriminarea încrederii i respectului în raport cu genul copiilor (feminin i masculin) provine de la p rin i (întrebarea 7 i 8 în chestionarul 2);


Confruntarea statistic i interac iunile dintre chestionarele 1 (elev) i 2 (p rinte)

H8: ierarhia coincide în propor ie majoritar (dou motive identice pozi ionate în primele trei) în viziunea elevilor i a p rin ilor privind un program extra colar sau atelier de consiliere spiritual (întrebarea 6 în ambele chestionare); H9: scoruri relativ apropiate (± 20%) privind încrederea i ata amentul reciproc al elevilor (copiilor) i p rin ilor (întrebarea 7 i 8 în ambele chestionare);H10: asocierea statistic a r spunsurilor la întreb rile 3 i 4 din chestionarele 1 i 2, legate de necesitatea unui program extra colar i participarea la acesta (în afara orelor de clas ) într-un spa iu special (atelier de consiliere spiritual ) în care elevul s poat întreba un profesor despre multe din fr mânt rile lui suß ete ti.

Metodologia cercet rii a urmat riguros un plan de observare teoretic de tip clasic urmat de prelucrarea, analiza i interpretarea modern a datelor cu ajutorul unui pachet de programe (E-Views) testând ipoteze i validând / invalidând corela ii, ierarhii etc. În ancheta practic realizat pe baza de chestionar i supus unor metode i instrumente statistice de prelucrare, analiz i interpretare în cadrul metodologiei au coexistat de o manier tiin iÞ c mai multe etape concrete (S voiu, 2004; Vl sceanu, 2008; S voiu, 2011; Dinu, S voiu, Dabija, 2016): i) stabilirea obiectului (oportunitatea unei consilieri spirituale în procese educa ionale) i scopului anchetei (identiÞ carea unui spa iu special - atelier de consiliere spiritual - în care elevul s poat întreba un profesor despre multe din fr mânt rile lui suß ete ti); un scop mai larg al cercet rii a a fost acela de a oferi atât date, cât i informa ii statistice utile în vederea elabor rii de variante de decizie sau de validare / invalidare ulterioar a impactului decizional legat de introducerea unui atelier de de consiliere spiritual colar ; ii) documentarea teoretic în vederea realiz rii practice (prin realizarea de referate i chestionare la disciplinele de masterat Cercet ri demograÞ ce aplicate i Investiga ii, model ri istatistici aplicate; iii) determinarea grupurilor int (elevi i p rin i) ca univers popula ional al anchetei; iv) formularea ipotezelor i validarea/invalidarea acestora; v) alegerea tehnicilor i redactarea chestionarului (au fost preferate întreb ri închise i conÞ gurarea astfel a unui standard al investiga iei pentru elev i separat pentru p rinte, existând unele p r i comune esen iale); vi) pilotarea sau pretestul (pentru a corecta chestionarele 1 i 2 ca elaborare i prelucrare ulterioar a fost realizat chiar la disciplina Cercet ri demograÞ ce aplicate cu ajutorul colegilor de masterat); vii) redactarea deÞ nitiv a chestionarului (1- elev i 2 – p rinte); viii) selectarea tehnicilor i metodelor de administrare a chestionarului (autoarea diserta iei a realizat special acest demers valoriÞ când tehnica


voluntariatului cuplurilor elev – p rinte destina i ca responden i prin autoadministrare oferind informa ii utile de sinonimie conceptual acestora); ix) prelevarea i e antionarea celor dou popula ii în volum egal i asociat (s-a urm rit ca elevul simultan cu un p rinte al acestuia s completeze Þ ecare un formular) ajungând la Þ nal la un volum al e antionului de 40 de elevi i p rin i ( n1 = n2= 40 responden i); x) prelucrarea, sistematizarea i agregarea (la nivel de indicatori) a rezultatelor cu ajutorul pachetului de programe Eviews; xi) analiza indicatorilor sau a rezultatelor obtinute în raport cu ipotezele formulate i decizia Þ nal de validare/invalidare a acestora au fost realizate tot cu pachetul de programe Eviews; xii) redactarea raportului Þ nal al anchetei i formularea concluziilor cercet rii psihopedagogice sau sociologice axate pe metode i instrumente statistice. Num rul variabilelor investigate ini ial în Þ ecare chestionar a fost similar i a cincis cu num rul întreb rilor, respectiv s-au urm rit 15 variabile în chestionarul

1 (la care se mai adaug ase variabile de identiÞ care a elevului respondent, cu accent pe note, tip de familie, gen, vârst , domiciliu stabil, ciclu educa ional) i 15 variabile în chestionarul 2 (la care se mai adaug alte ase variabile de

identiÞ care a p rintelui respondent, cu accent pe activitatea desf urat , statutul ocupa ional, nivelul cel mai înalt al colii absolvite, gen, vârst , domiciliu stabil). În urma detalierii Þ nale a unor tipuri de r spunsuri (discipline, op iuni i scoruri) s-au prelucrat, analizat, interpretat, asociat i corelat un num r total de 65 de variabile dintre care 35 de variabile în chestionarul elevilor (chestionar 1) i 30 de variabile în chestionarul p rin ilor (chestionar 2), diferen a Þ ind dat de detalierea unor note la discipline confruntate în cazul elevilor. Precizarea timpului investiga iei, a condus la decal ri Þ re ti între perioada de referin i prelucrare, dar nu a impus relu ri ale cercet rii a a c aceast prim investiga ie nu con ine aspecte cronologice, care puteau genera nevoia de a arhiva i prelucra serii de timp sau repere evolutive ale unui fenomen, între momente succesive 0, ..., t, t+1, oferind la Þ nal doar o simpl imagine de moment i nu una de ß ux ca însumare a manifest rilor, cazurilor, apari iilor din perioadele cercetate. Precizarea locului observ rii identiÞ c drept loca ie a anchetei coala gimnazial Virgil Calotescu din Bascov, Arge unde s-a investigat popula ia respondent a e antioanelor de elevi i p rin i.

3. REZULTATE I DISCU II Culegerea datelor pentru cei 40 de elevi responden i s-a realizat cu chestionarul 1 iar în urma prelucr rii, anlizei i interpret rii datelor s-au desprinse unel aspecte semniÞ cative. F r a asigura o reprezentativitate calculat


matematic, ci doar câteva tendin e în raport cu întreaga popula ie colar din România s-au identiÞ cat câteva aspecte generale relative importante. De exemplu grupul int de ine o pondere de circa 48% a familiilor din care provin elevii, familii de tip concubinaj sau alte tipuri decât cel obi nuit (relativ nereprezentativ la nivel na ional). Ipoteza H1 sau a asocierii a teptate a disciplinei Religie cu alte discipline conform mediei ob inute de elevi (responden i) determinat de speciÞ citatea disciplinei i caracterul m rturisitor i integrator al acesteia este demostrat statistic prin existen a unor corela ii

intense ale acesteia cu alte discipline conform mediei elevilor responden i a a cum apare în extrasul din chestionar (Tabel 1) la întrebarea a asea din datele de identiÞ care ale elevilor.

Extras din chestionarul 1 – sec iunea date de identiÞ care elev respondent

Tabel nr. 1Note sau caliÞ cative la disciplinele

Religie 1. Educa ie civic (VII) 2. Educa ie civic (VIII) 3.

Limba i literatura român 4. Istorie 5. Matematic 6. Nota la purtare 7.

Sursa: Chestionar 1 (elev)

În acest fel, ipoteza H1 este validat i se confer religiei un caracter asociat, cel pu in prin prisma evalu rii Þ nale a elevilor (valori sc zute ca nivel al raportului de corela ie R, plasat sub 0.5, exist în raport cu Matematica i Limba Român , dar supus test rii ulterioare acestea conÞ rm statistic o

corela ie de intensitate slab , dar real ).

Matrice de corela ie a notelor elevilor la religie i alte discipline asociabileTabel nr. 2

I61 I62 I63 I64 I65 I66 I67

SER01 SER02 SER03 SER04 SER05 SER06 SER07

SER01 1.000000 0.661549 0.877407 0.495802 0.642685 0.345321 0.691564

SER02 0.661549 1.000000 0.845409 0.446853 0.690419 0.538944 0.396638

SER03 0.877407 0.845409 1.000000 0.511420 0.670086 0.430015 0.570346

SER04 0.495802 0.446853 0.511420 1.000000 0.661247 0.824558 0.614510

SER05 0.642685 0.690419 0.670086 0.661247 1.000000 0.658756 0.489116

SER06 0.345321 0.538944 0.430015 0.824558 0.658756 1.000000 0.417251

SER07 0.691564 0.396638 0.570346 0.614510 0.489116 0.417251 1.000000

Sursa: Rezultatele anchetei prelucrate cu pachetul de programe EViews.

În matricea de corela ie anterioar realizat cu ajutorul pachetului de programe Eviews (Tabel 2) se identiÞ c asocieri de intensitate peste medie (peste 0.5) ale Religiei cu discipline diverse: Educa ie civic VII (0.662) i


Educa ie civic VIII (0.877), Istorie (0.643) i nota la purtare (0.692) ceea ce valideaz metoda statistic folosit i îi confer un grad suÞ cient de mare de obiectivitate. Ceea ce se mai desprinde din analiza datelor reprezentate de note este anormalitatea distribu iilor de note la disciplinele Religie, Educa ie civic VII i VIII ca de altfel i la nota la purtare (Tabel 3).

Statistica descriptiv a notelor la discipline asociate religiei i anormalitatea distribu ional conÞ rmat de testul Jarque-Bera (valori

J-B 9.21)Tabel nr. 3

SER01 SER02 SER03 SER04 SER05 SER06 SER07 Mean 9.974359 9.322581 9.560000 8.410256 8.846154 7.820513 9.871795 Median 10.00000 10.00000 10.00000 9.000000 9.000000 8.000000 10.00000 Maximum 10.00000 10.00000 10.00000 10.00000 10.00000 10.00000 10.00000 Minimum 9.000000 6.000000 5.000000 5.000000 6.000000 5.000000 8.000000 Std. Dev. 0.160128 1.076634 1.083205 1.568069 1.203907 1.890026 0.409074 Skewness -6.002193 -1.485003 -3.268978 -0.703144 -0.801167 -0.117204 -3.299443 Kurtosis 37.02632 4.371545 13.85277 2.373948 2.672716 1.560758 13.51971 Jarque-Bera 2115.580 13.82350 167.2160 3.850577 4.346203 3.455342 250.5904 Probability 0.000000 0.000996 0.000000 0.145834 0.113824 0.177698 0.000000 Sum 389.0000 289.0000 239.0000 328.0000 345.0000 305.0000 385.0000 Sum Sq.Dev. 0.974359 34.77419 28.16000 93.43590 55.07692 135.7436 6.358974 Observations 39 31* 25* 39 39 39 39

Sursa: Rezultatele anchetei prelucrate cu pachetul de programe EViews. *Not = Rezultate diferite recunoscute.

Competi ia în procesele de evaluare a înv rii nu contureaz distribu ii normale iar profesorii disciplinelor Religie, Educa ie civic VII i VIII practic se pare metode axate pe informare simetric i formare de

abilit i de convie uire social în medii poten iale. Elevii responden i din e antion au declarat ceea ce au sim it ei mai tot timpul sau în mod obi nuit suß ete te acas sau în familie (graÞ c nr. 1) sau separat la coal printre colegi i profesori (graÞ c nr. 2), relevând un ecart structural global de 10 % între

cele dou medii, cu o prezen a st rii de fr mântare/nelini te în graÞ cul 2 de 15%.


Starea elevilor acas sau în familie Starea elevilor la coal (stânga) GraÞ c nr. 1 (dreapta) GraÞ c nr.2

Sursa: Datele au fost prelucrate cu pachetul de programe EViews

Ipoteza H2: atingerea unui prag optim paretian de scoruri pozitive de minim 20% (favorabile înÞ in rii unui program extra colar - atelier de consiliere spiritual -) care s genereze ca efect realizarea lui conform scorurilor elevilor responden i referitoare la oportunitatea teoretic (chestionar 1 întrebarea 3) este destul de aproape de o validare global (7 din 40 de elevi au conÞ rmat prin scoruri pozitive, adic 17,5%) i se valideaz clar în popula ia elevilor care decid cu scoruri pozitive sau negative, exceptând nehot râ ii sau cei cu scor 0 (7 din 21 de elevi sau 33.3% din popula ia deciden ilor hot râ i) a a cum se poate constata din graÞ cul 3.

Distribu ia scorurilor elevilor responden i referitoare la oportunitatea înÞ in rii unui program extra colar (atelier de consiliere spiritual )

GraÞ c nr. 3


Ipoteza H3, despre atingerea unui prag optim paretian de scoruri pozitive de minim 20% (favorabile particip rii la un program extra colar (atelier de consiliere spiritual ) care s rezulte din scorurile direct elevii


responden i referitoare la decizia de participare concret (chestionar 1 întrebarea 4) este aproape de o validare global (tot aceia i 7 din 40 de elevi au conÞ rmat prin scoruri pozitive, adic 17,5%) i se valideaz i în popula ia elevilor hot râ i s participe (33.3%) dup graÞ cul 4 dar în alt structur i intensitate distribu ional a scorurilor.

Distribu ia scorurilor elevilor responden i referitoare la participarea efectiv a acestora la un program extra colar (atelier de consiliere spiritual )

GraÞ c nr. 4


Modelul unui astfel de atelier de consiliere spiritual ar putea Þ acela descris sub forma unui grup de discutii (40%) sau individual (37.5%) conform statisticii r spunsurilor elevilor la întrebarea 5 din chestionarul 1 (graÞ cul 5).

Con inutul întreb rii 5 din chestionarul 1 i distribu ia r spunsurilor elevilor referitoare la modelul unui program extra colar (atelier de

consiliere spiritual )GraÞ c nr. 5

Cum ar putea Þ mai bine s se desf oare o astfel de întâlnire, adic al turi de profesor s se aß e :

Un grup (p rin i i elevi) 1. Un grup (numai elevi) 2. Numai tu i p rin ii t i 3. Numai tu (individual) 4.

Sursa: Datele au fost prelucrate cu software EViews

Pentru a ierarhiza cele zece motiva ii care i-ar determina pe elevi s participe la un atelier de consiliere spiritual s-a valoriÞ cat un tabel 4 cu cele trei valori ale tendin ei centrale (medie, median i modal ):


Valorile tendin ei centrale ale r spunsurilor la întrebarea 6 din chestionar 1

Tabel nr. 4SER01 SER02 SER03 SER04 SER05 SER06 SER07 SER08 SER09 SER10

Mean 4.461538 4.358974 4.564103 3.743590 4.538462 5.692308 6.564103 6.538462 6.358974 8.222222

Median 4.000000 4.000000 4.000000 3.000000 4.000000 6.000000 7.000000 7.000000 7.000000 10.00000

Modal value 3 1 - 2 4 1 1-3 7 9 8 9 10

Observations 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 36

Sursa: Datele au fost prelucrate cu pachetul de programe EViews iar valorile modale extrase din graÞ ce

O ierarhie Þ nal optim a putut Þ realizat cu ajutorul simultan al tuturor valorilor centrale (medie, median i valoare dominant ) cu accent pe valoarea modal care apare din graÞ c, i este prezentat în tabelul 5:

Ierarhia Þ nal a motivelor care ar conduce elevii la participarea la un atelier de consiliere spiritual conform valorile tendin ei centrale

Tabel nr. 5I.6. Po i s pui în ordine câteva motive care te-ar determina s participi la astfel de întâlniri?S vorbe ti (comunici) mai mult cu ceilal i Loc 4 S aß i cum se pot rezolva certuri/conß icte Loc 6S cuno ti mai bine dorin ele p rin ilor Loc 2 S înve i cum s ceri i s dai altora Loc 9S cuno ti mai bine colegii i profesorii Loc 5 S înve i cum po i s Þ mai lini tit, mai bun Loc 7S te cuno ti i în elegi mai bine pe tine Loc 1 S înve i când s taci/ascul i ce spun cei mari Loc 8S înve i s controlezi emo ii (furia, bucuria) Loc 3 Altul (men iona i)……………… Loc 10

Sursa: Datele analizate multivaloric ale tabelului 4

Se poate constata c elevii au selectat în primele trei motive ale particip rii lor poten iale la un atelier de consiliere spiritual : a) s te cuno ti i în elegi mai bine pe tine; b) s cuno ti mai bine dorin ele p rin ilor; c) s

înve i s controlezi emo ii (furia, bucuria). Comparând scorurile transmise de elevi referitoare la antonimele descrise prin cuvinte în întreb rile 7 i 8 care caracterizau personalitatea mamei i a tat lui Þ ec ruia dintre ei printr-o referire strict la ata ament i încredere se identiÞ c Þ resc un scor mai mare 3.30 la mam (cu scor maxim de 5 puncte acordat de 50 % dintre elevi, dar i cu amplitudine mai restrâns a scorurilor individuale între -1 i 5) în compara ie cu scorul acordat tat lui de 2.48 (cu scor maxim de 5 puncte acordat de 40 % dintre elevi i cu un câmp de împr tiere maxim al scorurilor individuale, de la -5 la 5) a a cum se constat din tabelul 6:


Scorurile medii, mediane i amplitudinea speciÞ c încrederii în Þ ecare elev din partea p rin ilor

Tabel nr. 6SER01 Mama SER02 Tat

Mean 3.300 2.475 Median 4.50 2.50 Maximum 5.00 5.00 Minimum -1.00 -5.00 Observations 40 40


E antionul prelevat prin voluntariat s-a dovedit omogen în ceea ce prive te opinia individual a elevilor privind importan a credin ei în Dumnezeu, numai trei elevi r spunzând cu nu la întrebarea 9, dar i coerent men inând mama drept persoana care le-a inß uen at via a pentru 62,5% dintre ei, conform întreb rii 10. Întrebarea 11 i 12 relev importan a rug ciunii pentru elevi circa 50 i repsectiv 40%) identiÞ când acest r spuns ca esen ial. Întrebarea 13 reconÞ rm importan a mamei în general (25%) i a bunicii în mod special (45%) în identiÞ carea persoanei celei mai religioase din familia elevilor chestiona i.

Scorurile medii ale elevilor la întreb rile 14 i 15 din chestionar 1Tabel nr. 7

Chestionar 1 I14 C1 I15 C1Mean 2.375 2.625Median 2.000 3.000Maximum 4.000 4.000Minimum 1.000 1.000Observations 40 40


Intreb rile 14 i 15 descrise în tabelul 7 relev câteva valori morale i variabile majore, una drept principala valoare la care copiii î i doresc s

ajung prin credin a lor ortodox i care i-a impresionat de fapt la ora de religie dragostea (conform scor mediu 2.375 i 57.5% din optiuni Þ nale) i alte dou complet diferit în raport cu ora de educa ie civic unde oscileaz între dreptate (37.5%) i respect (35%) conform unui scor mediu de 2.625. În Þ nal se poate aÞ rma c H4 este validat , respectiv mama continu s Þ e personajul central al familiei, acela care de ine cel mai ridicat scor ca ata ament i încredere din partea copilului i care i-a inß uen at credin a elevului de mai târziu (întreb ri 7, 8 i 9, chestionar 1). E antionul p rin ilor prelevat în rela ie direct cu cel al elevilor r mâne unul urban, dominat ca statut ocupa ional de salaria i (80%) i patroni ori asocia i (17.5%), din punct de vedere al nivelului de studii cel mai înalt absolvite este relativ polarizat între universitar (47.5%) i liceal (45%), dar


diversiÞ cat în raport cu activitatea concret (câte 10 % in agricultur i industrie, 15 % in comert i alte servicii, 25 % îm educa ie i 30% în s n tate etc.). P rin ii responden i din e antion au declarat ceea ce au sim it ei mai tot timpul sau în mod obi nuit suß ete te acas sau în familie (graÞ c nr. 6) sau separat la coal printre colegi i profesori (graÞ c nr. 7), relevând o varia ie mai larg i mai consistent relativ a st rilor emo ionale dar i un ecart structural global mult mai mic de numai 2.5 - 5% între cele dou medii, cu o prezen a st rii de fr mântare/nelini te în graÞ cul 2 de 15%.

Stare p rin i (acas /serviciu) Stare p rin i (legat de coal ) GraÞ c nr. 6 GraÞ c nr.7


Ipoteza H5, referitoare la atingerea i dep irea unui prag optim paretian de scoruri pozitive de minim 20% (favorabile particip rii la un program extra colar sau atelier de consiliere spiritual ) care s genereze ulterior ca efect realizarea lui, conform scorurilor elevilor responden i referitoare la oportunitatea teoretic (chestionarul 2, întrebarea 3) a fost validat cu 28 de scoruri positive din 40 de responden i (la un nivel foarte ridicat de 70%) i este descris în graÞ cul 8.


Distribu ia scorurilor p rin ilor responden i referitoare la oportunitatea înÞ in rii unui program extra colar (atelier de consiliere spiritual )

GraÞ c nr. 8


Ipoteza H6, referitoare la atingerea i dep irea unui prag optim paretian de scoruri pozitive de minim 20% (favorabile particip rii la un program extra colar sau atelier de consiliere spiritual ) care s rezulte direct din scorurile p rin ilor responden i referitoare la oportunitatea teoretic (chestionarul 2, întrebarea 4) este i aceasta validat cu 24 de scoruri positive din 40 de responden i (la un nivel foarte ridicat de 60%).

Distribu ia scorurilor p rin ilor responden i referitoare la participarea efectiv a copiilor acestora la un program extra colar (atelier de

consiliere spiritual )GraÞ c nr. 9


Modelul unui astfel de atelier de consiliere spiritual imaginat i evaluat de p rin i în chestionarul 2 este dominat de ideea de discu ii în grup, cum p rea de altfel u or de anticipat, grup alc tuit Þ e numai din p rin i i elevi (40%), Þ e exclusiv din elevi (27.5%), conform statisticii r spunsurilor p rin ilor responden i la întrebarea 5 din chestionarul 2 (graÞ cul 10).


Con inutul întreb rii 5 din chestionar 2 i distribu ia r spunsurilor p rin ilor referitoare la un program extra colar (atelier de consiliere

spiritual )GraÞ c nr. 10


Un grup (p rin i i elevi) = 1 Un grup (numai elevi) = 2Numai tu i p rin ii t i = 3 Numai tu (individual) = 4

Pentru a ierarhiza cele zece motiva ii care i-ar determina pep rin i s participle într-un grup cu elevii sau ar accepta un grup alc tuit numai din elevi la un atelier de consiliere spiritual s-a reconstruit un al doilea tabel 4 cu cele trei valori ale tendin ei central (medie, median i modal ) ob inute acum din chestionarul 2:

Valorile tendin ei centrale ale r spunsurilor la întrebarea 6 din chestionar 2

Tabel nr. 8SER01 SER02 SER03 SER04 SER05 SER06 SER07 SER08 SER09 SER10

Mean 5.30 5.05 6.125 5.375 5.150 4.30 5.025 5.025 5.20 7.65 Median 6.00 5.00 7.00 4.50 5.00 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.00 8.00 Mode 1 and 6 5 9 3 2 1 4 8 2 10Observations 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40Sursa: Datele au fost prelucrate cu pachetul de programe EViews iar valorile modale extrase

din graÞ ce speciÞ ce

Ierarhia Þ nal optimizat cu cel mai bun din trei indicatori ai tendin ei centrale a putut Þ realizat cu ajutorul simultan al mediei, medianei i modalei cu accent pe modal i medie prezentat în continuare (tabel nr. 9)


Ierarhia Þ nal a motivelor p rin ilor care ar conduce la participarea la un atelier de consiliere spiritual , conform valorile tendin ei centrale

Tabel nr. 9I.6. Po i s pui în ordine câteva motive care ar determina participarea la astfel de întâlniri?

S vorbe ti (comunici) mai mult cu ceilal i Loc 4 S aß i cum se pot rezolva certuri/conß icte Loc 1S cuno ti mai bine dorin ele p rin ilor Loc 7 S înve i cum s ceri i s dai altora Loc 6S cuno ti mai bine colegii i profesorii Loc 9 S înve i cum po i s Þ mai lini tit, mai bun Loc 8S te cuno ti i în elegi mai bine pe tine Loc 5 S înve i când s taci/ascul i ce spun cei mari Loc 3S înve i s controlezi emo ii (furia, bucuria) Loc 2 Altul (men iona i)…………………….. Loc 10

Sursa: Datele analizate multivaloric ale tabelului 8 cu accent pe valoarea modal .

Se poate constata c p rin ii au selectat alte trei motive principale ale particip rii poten iale la un atelier de consiliere spiritual în grup cu elevii sau al copiilor lor într-un grup distinctiv: a) s aß i cum se pot rezolva certuri/conß icte; b) s înve i s controlezi emo ii (furia, bucuria); c) s înve i când s taci/ascul i ce spun cei mari. Selec ia primelor trei locuri este reprezentativ pentru problemele întâmpinate de p rin i în educa ia copiilor, dar relev i conß icte de comunicare între genera ii (de i r spunsurile sunt mai omogene ca amplitudine, apte scoruri medii plasându-se în jur de 5). Comparând scorurile transmise de p rin i referitoare la antonimele descrise prin cuvinte în întreb rile 7 i 8 care caracterizau personalitatea copiilor acestora (elevilor în fapt) printr-o referire strict la ata ament i încredere valideaz ipoteza men inerii prin educa ie a discrimin rii încrederii i respectului în raport cu genul copiilor (feminin i masculin) care provine

de la p rin i i este transmis prin educa ie (întrebarea 7 i 8 în chestionarul 2); de fapt se valideaz ipoteza H7, referitoare la discriminarea încrederii i respectului în raport cu genul copiilor (feminin i masculin) atitudine care provine clar de la p rin i (întrebarea 7 i 8 în chestionarul 2) i este transmis prin educa ie copiilor. În mod concret se identiÞ c un scor mai mare 2.95 pentru Þ ic în raport cu 2.27 pentru Þ u, cu un câmp de împr tiere mai mare la b ie i (plasat între -1 i 5) decât la fete (plasat între 1 i 5) al scorurilor individuale ( tabel 10):

Scorurile discriminatorii medii, mediane i amplitudinea speciÞ c încrederii p rin ilor în copiii acestora

Tabel nr.10Chestionar 2 SER01 Fiic SER02 Fiu

Mean 2.95 2.275 Median 3.000 1.000

Maximum 5.000 5.000 Minimum 1.000 -1.000

Observations 40 40Sursa: Datele au fost prelucrate cu pachetul de programe EViews


Atitudinea individual a p rin or consemnat în chestionar coincide cu aceea a elevilor privind importan a credin ei în Dumnezeu, tot numai trei p rin i opteaz pentru r spunsul nu la întrebarea 9. Opinia p rin ilor despre mam ca persoan care le-a inß uen at via a domin cu acoperire de 37,5%, conform întreb rii 10, dar dispersia este mult mai mare acoperind toat gama r spunsurilor ceva mai consistent. Întrebarea 11 pozi ioneaz pe primul loc faptele bune (32.5%) urmate de importan a rug ciunii (27.5%) i identiÞ c la Þ nal aceste r spunsuri drept dominante. Nevoia rug ciunii (37.5%) al turi de aceea a lini tirii (20%) constituie principalele r spunsuri ale p rin ilor la întrebarea 12 (De ce este important în opinia dvs. s merge i la Biseric ?). P rin ii reconÞ rm importan a mamei sau so iei în general (62.5%) urmat de aceea a bunicii (17.5%) în identiÞ carea persoanei celei mai religioase din familie.

Scorurile medii ale p rin ilor la întreb rile 14 i 15 din chestionar 2Tabel nr. 11

Chestionar 2 I14 C2 I15 C2Mean 1.95 1.85

Median 2.00 1.50 Maximum 3.00 4.00 Minimum 1.00 1.00

Observations 40 40Sursa: Datele au fost prelucrate cu pachetul de programe EViews

Intreb rile 14 i 15 descrise în tabelul 11 relev valori morale i variabile dominante sau modale, principala valoare la care p rin ii î i doresc s ajung la Þ nal copiii prin credin r mâne tot dragostea (conform scorului mediu 1.95 i celor 60% din op iunile individuale) i cinstea (dup scorul mediu 1.85 i 50% din op iunile individuale). Interesant i relevant totodat este faptul c niciun p rinte nu cade în capcana chestionarului de la întrebarea 14 (spre deosebire de copiii lor), unde se ofer o fals variant de r spuns prin pedepsirea necredinciosului ceea ce ar putea reprezenta un semnal al unei toleran e cunoscute i acceptate, dar par ial transmise prin educa ie copiilor. Confruntarea sau compararea statistic a chestionarului 1 cu 2 a avut în vedere trei ipoteze de cercetare care urmau s Þ e validate sau nu prin aceast etap (H8; H9 i H10) Ipoteza H8, care aÞ rma c ierarhia coincide în propor ie majoritar (dou motive identice pozitionate în primele trei) în viziunea elevilor i a p rin ilor privind un program extra colar sau atelier de consiliere

spiritual (întrebarea 6 în ambele chestionare) nu se valideaz prin confruntare statistic (cele dou viziuni din tabelul 12 difer semniÞ cativ i numai un singur r spuns coincide în ierahia primelor trei):


Confruntarea ierarhiilor responden ilor la chestionar 1 i 2 (întrebarea 6)Tabel nr. 12

Chestionar 1 întrebarea 6 – ierarhie Þ nal Chestionar 2 întrebarea 6 – ierarhie Þ nal

S te cuno ti i în elegi mai bine pe tine Loc 1 S aß i cum se pot rezolva certuri/conß icte Loc 1S cuno ti mai bine dorin ele p rin ilor Loc 2 S înve i s controlezi emo ii (furia, bucuria) Loc 2S înve i s controlezi emo ii (furia, bucuria) Loc 3 S înve i când s taci/ascul i ce spun cei mari Loc 3

Ipoteza H9 privind asigurarea unor scoruri relativ apropiate (± 20%) privind încrederea i ata amentul reciproc al elevilor (copiilor) i p rin ilor (întrebarea 7 i 8 în ambele chestionare) se valideaz conform abaterii de 10,6% la întrebarea 7 i de 8.08% la întrebarea 8 (tabel 13):

Confruntarea statistic a scorurilor responden ilor la întreb rile 7 i 8Tabel nr. 13

Chestionar 1 SER01 Mama SER02 Tat Chestionar 2 SER01 Fiic SER02 Fiu Mean 3.300 2.475 Mean 2.950 2.275 Median 4.500 2.500 Median 3.000 1.000 Maximum 5.000 5.000 Maximum 5.000 5.000 Minimum -1.000 -5.000 Minimum 1.000 -1.000 Observations 40 40 Observations 40 40 Ipoteza H10 despre asocierea statistic a r spunsurilor la întreb rile 3 i 4 confruntate pentru chestionarele 1 i 2, întreb ri legate de necesitatea unui program extra colar i participarea la acesta (în afara orelor de clas ) într-un spa iu special (atelier de consiliere spiritual ) în care elevul s poat întreba un profesor despre multe din fr mânt rile lui suß ete ti nu este validat cu o matrice de corela ie distinct pentru Þ ecare întrebare în parte prin valori ale raportului de corela ie R = 0.137 la întrebarea 3 (C1 i C2) i R = 0.624 la întrebarea 4 (C1 i C2). Nu este invalidat necesitatea sau participarea ci solu ia concret a acesteia, p rin ii dorind majoritar grupuri de consiliere (inclusiv cu participarea lor), iar elevii grupuri sau solu ii individuale de consiliere dar f r participarea p rin ilor). Confruntarea statistic subliniaz normalitatea existen ei atât a dinamismul opiniilor de la p rin i la copii, referitoare la ierarhii i motiva ii, cât i constan a încrederii, respectului i ata amentului intergenera ii, ceea ce rezult logic din validarea iptezei H9 i invalidarea ipotezei Invalidarea ipotezei H10 arat c aceast consiliere este diferit interpretat de p rin i care opteaz semniÞ cativ pentru participarea lor la actul consilierii spiritual i de c tre elevi care exclude participarea p rin ilor la consilierea în sine.

4. CÂTEVA CONCLUZII I LIMITE ALE CERCET RII O societate uman în procesele sale educa ionale post socratice ar trebui dincolo de suprema ia legii i a judec torului corect s aminteasc i s valorizeze martirul, eroul i în eleptul. AÞ rma ia aceasta apar ine lui Mihai Eminescu i justiÞ c distinc ia riguros formulat i precis conturat a celor


trei evolu ii educa ionale caracterizate de credin , curaj i cunoa tere (inim , voin i intelect): Martirul, eroul i în eleptul sunt trei forme ale uneia i aceleia i substan e: adev rul. În raport cu ipotezele propuse ini ial nu s-au mai reg sit ca validate la Þ nalul cercet rii psihopedagogice sau sociologice axate pe o anchet statistic sus inut de chestionare paralele pentru elevi i p rin i doar ipotezele: H8 i H10; restul Þ ind invalidate în urma analizei rezultatelor investiga iei, ceea ce confer un contur de veridicitate anchetei statistice în sine. Problema investigat s-a dovedit real i de interes în domeniul educa ional românesc. Aceast cercetare psihopedagogic axat pe o anchet statistic (apelând la metode i tehnici de investiga ie statistice clasice, dar i la pachete de programe informatice moderne) a încercat s aß e în ce m sur consilierea spiritual este sau nu util în societatea contemporan , mai concret în procesul educa ional gimnazial, în contextul curricular i disciplinar unde nu lipsesc natural religia, educa ia civic , istoria, matematica etc. R spunsul dat de elevii i p rin ii responden i este unul aÞ rmativ în propor ii care ar putea justiÞ ca

ini ierea cu caracter de testare a unui program extra colar (în afara orelor obi nuite de clas ) într-un spa iu special (atelier de consiliere spiritual ) în care s poat întreba un profesor despre multe din fr mânt rile lor suß ete ti. Exist îns i limite evidente ale cercet rii, pornind de la caracterul ei de pionierat i de la resursele temporale i Þ nanciare de inute i puse în joc pentru a o realiza efectiv. Dac în mare parte concluziile sufer de un caracter relativ acest fapt se datoreaz prelev rii prin tehnica voluntariatului a e antionelor paralele de 40 de elevi i de 40 de p rin i ale c ror opinii au fost investigate cu ajutorul chestionarelor 1 i 2. Altfel spus cercetarea nu poate cuantiÞ ca la Þ nal o eroare de reprezentativitate din punct de vedere statistico – matematic a acestor e antioane autodirijate. Se poate îns semnala c în cazul unor resurse Þ nanciare reale disponibile i a unei baze de e antionare na ionale se poate transforma caracterul acestor opinii formulate de persoane care s-au oferit voluntar s completeze chestionarele, în adev ruri probabilistic exprimate i înso ite de erori i praguri de semniÞ ca ie conform teoriei moderne a sondajului statistic apelând la un sondaj stratiÞ cat cu erori de reprezentativitate calculate pe Þ ecare strat în raport cu criterii distincte, mediu rural sau urban, categoria ISCED, religii cu inciden na ional sau global etc. O perspectiv pe termen lung poate identiÞ ca consilierea spiritual drept o solu ie alternativ la educa ia religioas contemporan , care s respecte dreptul constitu ional modern al libert ii religioase.


BIBLIOGRAFIE 1. Avdeev, D., (2010). Psihiatria ortodox în întreb ri i r spunsuri. Bucure ti:

Editura SoÞ a. 2. Dinu, V., S voiu, G., Dabija, D.- C., (2016), A concepe, a redacta i a publica un

articol tiin iÞ c. O abordare în contextual cercet rii economice, Bucure ti: Editura ASE.

3. Dumitru, I. A., (2008). Consiliere psihopedagogica. Baze teoretice si sugestii practice. Ia i: Editura Polirom.

4. Kraiopoulos, S., (2005). P rin i i copii. Abordare teologic , duhovniceasc i psihologic . Bucure ti: Editura Bizantin .

5. Mearns, D., Thorn, B. (2010). Consilierea centrat pe persoana în ac iune. Bucure ti: Editura Trei.

6. S voiu, G, (2004). Statistic aplicat în domeniul economic i social, Pite ti: Ed.Independen a Economic .

7. S voiu, G., (2006). Popula ia lumii între explozie i implozie demograÞ c , Bucure ti:Ed. International University Press.

8. S voiu, G., (2011). Econometrie, Bucure ti: Editura Universitar . 9. Solomon, M., (1987). Moduri de gândire, Bucure ti: Ed. tiin iÞ c i enciclopedic . 10. Trebici, V., (1985). Mica enciclopedie de statistic , Bucure ti: Ed. tiin iÞ c i

enciclopedic . 11. Vl sceanu, L., (2008). Introducere în metodologia cercet rii sociologice,

Bucure ti: Editura Universit ii din Bucure ti.


A SURVEY ON THE DESIRABILITY OF AN EXTRA-CURRICULAR SCHOOL PROGRAM OR SPIRITUAL COUNSELING WORKSHOP,

AND SOME SPECIFIC STATISTICAL INTERACTIONS OR CONFRONTATIONS

Professor habil. Gheorghe S VOIU, PhD Associate professor Mihaela Gabriela NEACSU, PhD Professor Cristina DURAN, M.A. student University of Pitesti

Abstract The extent to which some students would like to attend an extra-curricular school program in a special room (a workshop of spiritual counseling), where they could Þ nd answers from a qualiÞ ed teacher to their questions about many of their inner questions and spiritual queries, struggles and troubles, as well as the quantiÞ cation of some potential associations, in the educational process, between the religious views of children and parents, extended or restricted to the notion of discipline taught in school, and also several other correlations between the various different explanatory factors, along with the identiÞ cation of general and moral values of religion, and some hierarchies connected with the sources of children’s opinions, were the subject of this research psycho-pedagogical focused on statistical methods and tools. The research itself is both a detailed study focused on an investigation questionnaire, conducted in order to know the desirability of the program, and to quantify a set of opinions about the need for a spiritual counseling, as well as a tentative hierarchy and correlation of a number of motivations and relationships, by means of statistic and mathematical symbolism. Of the ten hypotheses analysed in the paper, eight are validated, and the statistical confrontation between the sample of the parents and that of the students, as actors of the act of education, is Þ nally revealing. Keywords: statistical survey, the research hypothesis, psycho-pedagogical study, statistical ranking or hierarchy, correlation matrix, E-views. JEL codiÞ cation: C12, C46, I 21, Z12.

1. INTRODUCTION In the literature of psycho-pedagogical studies a few processes or phenomena of a demographic, economic, or social nature stand out, which can increase the impact and importance of a counseling program: a) rurality, which


is structurally maintained at a level above the European average (Romania has one of the highest rates of rurality in the EU, since 1987 when it only reached the rural-urban parity, reaching the 50% level, then decreasing only by 6-7% in the following two and a half decades), which, in keeping with a much lower level of culture and education, involves the solution of counseling); b) the accelerating trends of population aging (in 2015, the population over 65 has reached nationally 17.6% of the rural population, and 13.6% of that of municipalities and cities) induce a necessary process of spiritual counseling, with an impact on grandchildren, too; c) international migration, either permanent or temporary, classical or networked, in search of jobs (including, or especially, better-paid jobs) of a large number of parents (between 3 and 4 million inhabitants of Romania, accounting for nearly 40-50% of the active population), which also forces a much needed counseling for the children left home, who are taken care of by grandfathers, uncles, aunts, other relatives, or temporary guardians, etc.; d) the relatively high dropout level, which – although certainly illegal under the Constitution, which guarantees nine compulsory school grades in Romania – reached the highest European level ever since 2015, with a drop-out rate of 19.1%, which requires intensive counseling of both parents and students (going beyond the identiÞ cation of Þ nancial resources to reduce this indicator to about 11% by 2020); e) the slight upward trend of suicide rate per 100,000 inhabitants in Romania, identifying and carefully advising the exposed population segment, which exceeded 25o

/

oooo in men and 5 o/oooo in women (according to the data source available at

http://www.insse.ro/cms/Þ les/Web_ IDD_BD_ro/index.htm). The target groups of sociological, socio-pedagogical and statistical surveys can combine the concept of “advisable population”, i.e. not only students or graduates of various educational systems and processes, but also the parents or legal guardians of children (grandparents, uncles, aunts, other relatives, etc.) resulting from contemporary migration processes as discouraged people in the labor market, an outcome of unemployement, who, according to the International Labor OfÞ ce (ILO), went six months without engaging in another job, people with early or progressive depression, people who abandoned any type of community (school, family, etc.), people who have relatively recently suffered trauma with a signiÞ cant impact in the future (in the family, in society, etc.), elderly people, lonely or abandoned people, as a result of various social exclusion processes (people belonging to the “third age”, i.e. over 65, or the “fourth age”, over 80 years), people with disabilities who live in less cohesive and educated environments (S voiu, 2006). The primary or secondary educational process is threefold, being conducted, at its debut beginning, through the contributions coming from three


actors: students, parents and teachers. This triad describes, in a complete and also complex manner, a scenic and geometric educational space, originally triangular, which quickly becomes pyramid-shaped by dint of interactions and associations. Identifying a target group for the present study focused on the complexity of the educational space and successfully using it in order to shape the opportunity to give a number of children an extra-curricular school program (i.e. outside the classroom), conducted in a special space (a workshop of spiritual counseling), in which they can ask a teacher about many of their spiritual concerns, queries, struggles and troubles. This broadly falls into the general groups that usually require counseling, while also involving a second group, i.e. a mirror or a reß ected one, namely that of the parents, or guardians of students.

2. THE METHODOLOGY OF THE RESEARCH For reasons of expediency and uniÞ ed treatment in observation, and also starting from the reasons and justiÞ cations above, the type of research that is made use of (either pedagogical or sociological), focused on rigorous questionnaire-based observation, was the statistical survey (drawing on purely statistical methods and tools), and the period when it was carried out was that time just before the religious holidays speciÞ c to late winter (more speciÞ cally, the Þ rst two weeks of December 2016, which virtually coincides with the end of school term, and going into the winter break for the students). The main work hypotheses set out from initially treating each of the two target groups in a distinct manner, i.e. the group of the students and that made up of their parents, identifying speciÞ c aspects of each group, in a questionnaire (student - Questionnaire 1 and parent- Questionnaire 2), piloting the questionnaire, observation and data collection, analysis and interpretation of results per questionnaire and distinctive target group, exploiting characteristic methods and statistical tools, and Þ nally making a statistical comparison or confrontation of the two target groups, which were mirror-reß ected (i.e. associated statistically). Essentially, the main investigative hypotheses, expressed and detailed in a statistical manner, were the following:


Questionnaire 1 (student)H1: statistical association (difÞ culty interest, competition, etc.) of the discipline of religion with other school disciplines, according to the students’ (respondents’) grade averages, determined by the speciÞ city of the discipline and its confessionary and integrative character (the Þ nal question in the identiÞ cation data of the respondent students);H2: reaching an optimal Pareto threshold of positive scores – at least 20% (favourable for establishing an extra-curricular school program or spiritual counseling workshop), which could subsequently bring the effect of its carrying out in keeping with the respondent students’ scores concerning its theoretical opportuneness (Questionnaire 1, question 3); H3: reaching an optimal Pareto threshold of positive scores – at least 20% (favourable for establishing an extra-curricular school program or spiritual counseling workshop), which is the direct result of the respondent students’ scores concerning its theoretical opportuneness (Questionnaire 1, question 4); H4: the mother continues to be the central character in a family, who holds the highest score in point of attachment and trust from the child, and who has inß uenced the student’s later faith (questions 7, 8 and 9).

Questionnaire 2 (parent)H5: reaching and exceeding an optimal Pareto threshold of positive scores – at least 20% (favorable for attending an extra-curricular school program or workshop of spiritual counseling), which could subsequently bring the effect of its carrying out in keeping with the respondent students’ scores on its theoretical opportuneness (Questionnaire, 2 question 3);H6: reaching and exceeding an optimal Pareto threshold of positive scores – at least 20% (favorable for attending an extra-curricular school program or workshop of spiritual counseling), which could subsequently bring the effect of its carrying out in keeping with the respondent parents’ scores on its theoretical opportuneness (Questionnaire, 2 question 4);H7: discrimination of trust and respect in relation to the children’s gender (male or female) comes from the parents (questions 7 and 8 in Questionnaire 2);

Statistic confrontation, and interactions between questionnaires 1 (student) and 2 (parent)

H8: the ranking or hierarchy coincides for the most part (two identical reasons placed in the top three) in the view of both atudents and parents, concerning an extra-curricular school program or spiritual counseling workshop (question 6 in both questionnaires); H9: relatively close scores (± 20%) on trust and mutual attachment of students (children) and their parents (questions 7 and 8 in both questionnaires);H10: statistical association of answers to questions 3 and 4 in questionnaires 1 and 2, relating to the need for an extra-curricular school program and attending it (in addition to the regular classes) in a special room (a workshop of spiritual counseling), where the student can ask a teacher about many of the things that trouble his/her soul.

The research methodology rigorously followed and respected a theory-based observation plan of the classical type, followed by processing, analyzing and interpreting the data using a modern software package (E-Views), testing hypotheses and validating or invalidating correlations, hierarchies, etc. In the practical investigation that was conducted based on a questionnaire and subjected to a set of statistical methods and tools for processing, analysis and interpretation, within the methodology there coexisted, in a fully scientiÞ c manner, several concrete steps (S voiu, 2004; Vl sceanu, 2008; S voiu, 2011; Dinu, S voiu, Dabija, 2016):


i) determining the object (opportuneness of spiritual counseling in the educational processes), the scope and the aim of the survey (identifying a particular space – a spiritual counseling workshop – where the student can ask a teacher about many of the concerns and struggles of his/her soul); a wider scope of the survey was to provide both data and statistical information useful to develop variants of decision or subsequent validation/invalidation of the decision-related impact connected with introducing a spiritual counseling workshop in school; ii) to achieve the theoretical documentation aimed at achieving it practically (through papers and questionnaires that are part of the MA disciplines Applied demographic research and Applied investigations, modeling and statistics; iii) determining the target groups (students and parents) as the population universe of the survey; iv) formulating the hypotheses and validating/invalidating them; v) selecting the techniques and drafting the questionnaire (closed questions were preferred, and thus conÞ gurating an investigation standard separately for students and parents, with some common parts that are essential); vi) piloting or pre-testing (to correct Questionnaires 1 and 2 in point of development, drafting and further processing, it was done actually as part of the discipline Applied demographic research, with the help of fellow MA students); vii) Þ nal drafting and wording of the questionnaire (1 – for students, and 2 – for parents); viii) selecting the techniques and methods of administering the questionnaire (the author of the dissertation has done it through a purposeful approach, by exploiting the technique of volunteering student–parent pairs, targeted as respondents, by self-administration, which provided useful information on their conceptual synonymity); ix) sampling and managing the samples in both populations for an equal and associated volume (thea idea was to ensure that the student, together with one of his/her parents, Þ lled out one form individually), Þ nally reaching a sample volume of 40 students and parents (n1 = n2= 40 respondents); x) processing, systematization and aggregation of the results (at the level of the indicators), using the Eviews software package; xi) analyzing the indicators or results obtained in relation to the hypotheses formulated, and making the Þ nal decision of validation or invalidation, were both achieved by means of the Eviews software package; xii) drafting the Þ nal report of the investigation, and drawing the conclusions of the psycho-pedagogical or sociological research focused on statistical methods and tools.


The number of variables initially investigated in each questionnaire was similar, coinciding with the number of questions: i.e. 15 variables were pursued in Questionnaire 1 (to which are added six more variables identifying the respondent student, focusing on grades, type of family, gender, age, residence, educational cycle), and 15 variables in Questionnaire 2 (to which are added six more variables identifying the respondent parent, focusing on their activity, employment status, the highest educational level completed, gender, age, residence). After Þ nally detailing a number of types of responses (subject-matters, options and scores) as many as 65 variables were processed, analyzed, interpreted, associated and correlated, of which 35 variables were included in the students’ questionnaire (Questionnaire 1), and 30 variables in the parents’ questionnaire (Questionnaire 2), the difference being given by detailing some grades in the subject-matters or school disciplines confronted – for the students. Specifying the duration and period of the investigation led to natural offsets between the reference period and the processing time, but did not however require going back or reworking parts of the research, so that this Þ rst investigation contains no chronological aspects, which could generate the need to archive and process time series or evolution benchmarks of a phenomenon, between successive moments 0, ..., t, t+1, thus eventually providing just a momentary image, a mere snapshot rather than a ß ow image, as a summation of the events, cases and appearances during the periods under study. The speciÞ cation of the observation site identiÞ ed, as location of the survey or investigation, Secondary School Virgil Calotescu in Bascov, Arge , where the responding sample population of students and parents was constructed.

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION The data collection for the 40 respondent students was conducted by means of Questionnaire 1, and after processing, analysis and interpretation of the data some signiÞ cant issues were noted. Without ensuring a mathematically calculated kind of representativeness, but rather some trends in relation to the entire school population in Romania, a few general issues of relative importance were identiÞ ed. For example, in the target group the share of the families the students come from, which are of the familial cohabitation or other types than those common, is about 48% (though it is relatively unrepresentative nationally). Hypothesis H1, or the expected association of the subject-matter religion with other school disciplines, in keeping with the average grade obtained by the students (respondents), determined by the speciÞ city of the subject-matter and its confessionary and integrative nature, is statistically demonstrated by the existence of its intense correlation with


other disciplines, in accordance with the average grades of the respondent students, such as it appears in the questionnaire excerpt (in Table 1) for the sixth question in the identiÞ cation data of the respondent students.

Excerpt from Questionnaire 1 – in the section of the identiÞ cation data of the respondent students

Table no. 1Grades or ranking codes for disciplines Religion 1. Civic education (VII) 2. Civic education (VIII) 3.

Romanian language and literature 4. History 5. Mathematics 6. Grade for conduct 7.

Source: Questionnaire 1 (student)

In this way, hypothesis H1 is validated, which gives religion an associated character, at least in the light of the Þ nal evaluation of the students (there are low levels of the correlation ratio R, placed under 0.5, in relation to Mathematics and Romanian Language, but, when subsequently subjected to testing, it statistically conÞ rmed a correlation of low intensity, yet real).

Matrix of correlation between students’ grades in religion and other associable disciplines

Table no. 2I61 I62 I63 I64 I65 I66 I67

SER01 SER02 SER03 SER04 SER05 SER06 SER07SER01 1.000000 0.661549 0.877407 0.495802 0.642685 0.345321 0.691564SER02 0.661549 1.000000 0.845409 0.446853 0.690419 0.538944 0.396638SER03 0.877407 0.845409 1.000000 0.511420 0.670086 0.430015 0.570346SER04 0.495802 0.446853 0.511420 1.000000 0.661247 0.824558 0.614510SER05 0.642685 0.690419 0.670086 0.661247 1.000000 0.658756 0.489116SER06 0.345321 0.538944 0.430015 0.824558 0.658756 1.000000 0.417251SER07 0.691564 0.396638 0.570346 0.614510 0.489116 0.417251 1.000000

Source: Results of the survey, processed with the EViews software package.

In the previous correlation matrix, realized using the software package Eviews (Table 2), combinations of intensity are identiÞ ed that are above the average (more than 0.5) for Religion with various disciplines: Civic education VII (0.662) and Civic education VIII (0.877), History (0.643 ) and the grade for students’ conduct and behavior (0.692), which validates the statistical method used, giving it a sufÞ ciently high degree of objectivity. What can also be noticed from the analysis of the data series represented by the students’ grades is the abnormality of the grade distributions in the subjects Religion, Civic education VII and Civic education VIII, as well as the grade for conduct and behavior (Table 3).


Descriptive statistics of the grades in subject matters associated to Religion, and the distributional abnormality conÞ rmed by the Jarque–

Bera test (according to the values 9.21)Table no. 3

SER01 SER02 SER03 SER04 SER05 SER06 SER07 Mean 9.974359 9.322581 9.560000 8.410256 8.846154 7.820513 9.871795 Median 10.00000 10.00000 10.00000 9.000000 9.000000 8.000000 10.00000 Maximum 10.00000 10.00000 10.00000 10.00000 10.00000 10.00000 10.00000 Minimum 9.000000 6.000000 5.000000 5.000000 6.000000 5.000000 8.000000 Std. Dev. 0.160128 1.076634 1.083205 1.568069 1.203907 1.890026 0.409074 Skewness -6.002193 -1.485003 -3.268978 -0.703144 -0.801167 -0.117204 -3.299443 Kurtosis 37.02632 4.371545 13.85277 2.373948 2.672716 1.560758 13.51971 Jarque-Bera 2115.580 13.82350 167.2160 3.850577 4.346203 3.455342 250.5904 Probability 0.000000 0.000996 0.000000 0.145834 0.113824 0.177698 0.000000 Sum 389.0000 289.0000 239.0000 328.0000 345.0000 305.0000 385.0000 Sum Sq.Dev. 0.974359 34.77419 28.16000 93.43590 55.07692 135.7436 6.358974 Observations 39 31* 25* 39 39 39 39Source: Results of the survey, processed with the EViews software package. *Note = different

recognized results.

Competition in the processes of learning assessment does not show normal distributions, and and the teachers in the disciplines Religion, Civic education VII and Civic education VIII seem to exercise methods focused on symmetrical information and shaping trained skills of social life in potential environments. The respondent students in the sample declared what they felt nearly always, or usually, in terms of emotional attitude, at home or in their families (chart no. 1), or, individually, at school, among classmates and teachers (chart no. 2), indicating an overall structural difference of 10% between the two environments, with a presence of the state of trouble/anxiety, in Figure 2, of 15%.

Students’ state of mind at home or in the family (left) Graph no. 2 Students’ state of mind at school (right)

Graph no. 1



Hypothesis H2: reaching an optimal Pareto threshold of positive scores – at least 20% (favorable to setting up an extra-curricular school program – spiritual counseling workshop), whose effect could be its realization in keeping with the respondent students’ scores concerning the theoretical opportuneness (Questionnaire 1, question 3) is rather close to a global validation (7 out of 40 students conÞ rmed it by positive scores, i.e. 17.5%) and is clearly validated within the population of the students who decide through positive or negative scores, except for those undecided, or those with score 0 (7 of 21 students, or 33.3% of the decided decision-makers), as can be seen in graph 3.

Distribution of respondent students’ scores on whether it is opportune to set up an extra-curricular school program (spiritual counseling

workshop)Graph no. 3


Hypothesis H3: reaching an optimal Pareto threshold of positive scores – at least 20% (favorable to attending an extra-curricular school program (workshop of spiritual counseling), which is the direct result of the scores of the respondent students concerning the decision to participate concretely (Questionnaire 1, question 4) is as close to a global validation (the same 7 of 40 students conÞ rmed it by positive scores, that is, 17.5%), an dis similarly validated in the population of the decided students (33.3%), in keeping with Graph no. 4, yet with a different structure and distributional intensity of scores.


Distribution of respondent students’ scores on their effective participation in a school program (spiritual counseling workshop)

Graph no. 4


The model of such a spiritual counseling workshop could be one described as a discussion group (40%), or individual activity (37.5%), according to the statistics of student responses to question 5 in Questionnaire 1 (Graph 5).

Content of question 5 in Questionnaire 1, and distribution of student responses concerning the model of an extra-curricular program

(spiritual counseling workshop)Graph no. 5

How it could be better to conduct such a session, i.e. alongside the teacher there should be:

A group (parents and students)1. A group (only students) 2.

Only you and your parents 3. Only you (individually) 4.


In order to rank the ten motivation reasons that could cause the students to participate in a spiritual counseling workshop, a table (Table no. 4) was built with three values of the central tendency (mean, median and modal)


Values of the central tendency of the responses to question 6 in Questionnaire 1 (I61 - I610)

Table no. 4SER01

I61SER02

I62SER03

I63SER04

I64SER05

I65SER06

I66SER07

I67SER08

I68SER09

I69SER10

I610

Mean 4.461538 4.358974 4.564103 3.743590 4.538462 5.692308 6.564103 6.538462 6.358974 8.222222

Median 4.000000 4.000000 4.000000 3.000000 4.000000 6.000000 7.000000 7.000000 7.000000 10.00000

Modal value

3 1 - 2 4 1 1-3 7 9 8 9 10

Observations 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 36

Source: The data were processed with the software package EViews, and the modal values were

taken from the graphs

An optimal Þ nal hierarchy could be made with the simultaneous help of all the central values (mean, median and modal, or dominant value), with special emphasis on the modal value, which is shown in the graph and is presented in Table no. 5:

The Þ nal hierarchy of the reasons would make the students participate in a spiritual counseling workshop, according to the values of the central

tendency Table no. 5

I.6. Can you order several reasons that would cause you to participate in such meetings?

Talk (communicate) more with the others Rank 4 Learn how quarrels/conß icts can be solved Rank 6Know your parents’ wishes better Rank 2 Learn how to ask for, and give others Rank 9Know colleagues and teachers better Rank 5 Learn how you can be more serence, better Rank 7Know and understand yourself better Rank 1 Learn when to be quiet/listen to what adults say Rank 8Learn how to control emotions (anger, joy) Rank 3 Other (mention it)………….. Rank 10

Source: The data in Table 4, analyzed in a multi-value manner

It can be seen that the students selected, as their top three reasons for potential participation in a spiritual counseling workshop: a) know and understand yourself better; b) know your parents’ wishes better; c) learn how to control emotions (anger, joy). By comparing the scores submitted by the students on the antonyms described by the questions 7 and 8, which characterized the personality of the mother and father of each of them through a strict reference to attachment and trust, a higher score of 3.30 is naturally identiÞ ed for the mother (the maximum score of 5 points from 50% of the students, and also a narrower amplitude of the individual scores from -1 to 5), compared to the score of 2.48 for the father (the maximum score was 5 points, from 40% of the students, with a maximum Þ eld of scattering of the individual scores, from -5 to 5), as seen in table 6:


Median average scores and speciÞ c amplitude of conÞ dence in each student from their parents

Table no. 6Questionnaire 1 SER01 Mother SER02 Father Mean 3.300 2.475 Median 4.50 2.50 Maximum 5.00 5.00 Minimum -1.00 -5.00 Observations 40 40


The sample taken through volunteering proved homogeneous in terms of the students’ individual opinion of the importance of faith in God, with only three students answering no to question 9, and also consistently, maintaining the mother as the person who inß uenced their lives for 62.5% of them, according to question 10. Questions 11 and 12 reveals the importance of prayer for pupils: 50% and 40%, respectively, identiÞ ed that as a key response. Question 13 reconÞ rms the importance of the mother in general (25%), and of the grandmother in particular (45%) in identifying the most religious person in the interviewed students’ family.

The mean scores of the respondent students to questions 14 and 15 (I14 and I15) in Questionnaire 1 (C1)

Table no. 7I14 C1 I15 C1

Mean 2.375 2.625Median 2.000 3.000Maximum 4.000 4.000Minimum 1.000 1.000Observations 40 40


Questions 14 and 15, as described in Table no. 7, show some moral values and major variables, one as the main value that children want to get through their orthodox faith, and which actually impressed them during the religion classes, i.e. love (in keeping with the average score, 2.375 and 57.5% of the Þ nal options) and two completely different ones with respect to the class of Civic education, where they oscillates between justice (37.5%) and respect (35%), according to an average score of 2.625. Finally, one can say that H4 is validated, i.e. the mother continues to be the central character of the family, the one who has the highest score in point of attachment and trust from the child, and who inß uenced the faith of the student in later times (questions 7, 8 and 9 in Questionnaire 1). The sample of the parents, taken in direct relation with that of the students, remains an urban one, dominated, in point of employment status, by employees (80%) and employers or associates (17.5%);


in terms of educational attainment by the highest graduation level, the results are relatively polarized between university (47.5%) and high school (45%), yet diversiÞ ed in relation to the speciÞ c activity (10% in agriculture, 10% in industry, 15% in commerce and other services, 25% in education, and 30% in the health service, etc.). The respondent parents in the sample declared what they felt nearly always or usually, in point of emotional attitude, at home or in the family (Graph no. 6), or individually at school among classmates and teachers (Graph no. 7), revealing a much wider and more substantial range of relative variation in emotional states, and also a much smaller overall structural difference of only 2.5 – 5% between the two environments, with a presence of the state of trouble / anxiety, in Figure 2, of 15%.

State of mind of parents at home/at work Graph np. 7. State of mind of the parents relative to school for their child

Graph no. 6


Hypothesis H5, concerning reaching and exceeding an optimal Pareto threshold of positive scores of at least 20% (favorable to attending an extra-curricular school program, or workshop of spiritual counseling), which could then bring the effect of its implementation, according to the scores of the respondent students on whether it is theoretically desirable (Questionnaire 2, question 3) was validated with 28 positive scores out of 40 respondents (at the very high level of 70%), and is described in Graph no. 8.


Distribution of the respondent parents’ scores relative to the opportuneness of setting up an extra-curricular school program

(spiritual counseling workshop)Graph no.8


Hypothesis H6, concerning reaching and exceeding an optimal Pareto threshold of positive scores of at least 20% (favorable to attending an extra-curricular school program, or workshop of spiritual counseling), which results directly from the scores of the respondent parents on whether it is theoretically opportune (Questionnaire 2, question 4) is also validated, with 24 positive scores out of 40 respondents (at the very high level of 60%).

Distribution of respondent parents’ scores relative to the effective participation of their children in an extra-curricular school program



The model of such a workshop for spiritual counseling, imagined and evaluated by parents in Questionnaire 2, is dominated by the idea of group discussions, as it actually seemed easy to anticipate – a group consisting either only of parents and


students (40%), or exclusively of students (27.5%), according to the statistics of the parents’ responses to question 5 in Questionnaire 2 (Graph no. 10).

Content of question 5 in Questionnaire 2 and distribution of parents’ answers relative to the model of an extra-curricular school program



Group (parents and students) = 1 Group (exclusively students) = 2 Only you and your parents = 3 Only you ( individual) = 4

In order to rank the ten reasons that would cause the parents to participate in a group with the students, or would accept a group composed solely of students in a workshop of spiritual counseling, a second Table 4 was rebuilt, with the three values of the central tendency (mean, median and modal) now obtained from Questionnaire 2:

Values of the central tendency of the responses to question 6 (I61-I610) in Questionnaire 2 (C2)

Table no. 8SER01 SER02 SER03 SER04 SER05 SER06 SER07 SER08 SER09 SER10

Mean 5.30 5.05 6.125 5.375 5.150 4.30 5.025 5.025 5.20 7.65 Median 6.00 5.00 7.00 4.50 5.00 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.00 8.00 Mode 1 and 6 5 9 3 2 1 4 8 2 10Observations 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40Source: The data were processed with the software package EViews, and modal values were extracted from speciÞ c graps


The Þ nal hierarchy, optimized with the best of the three indicators of the central tendency, could be made simultaneously with the mean, median and modal, focusing on the modal and average – which is presented below (Table no. 9)

Final hierarchy of the parents’ reasons that would cause them to participate in a spiritual counseling workshop, according to the central

tendency valuesTable no. 9

I.6. Can you order several reasons that would cause you to participate in such meetings?

Talk (communicate) more with the others Rank 4 Learn how quarrels/conß icts can be solved Rank 1Know your parents’ wishes better Rank 7 Learn how to ask for, and give others Rank 6Know colleagues and teachers better Rank 9 Learn how you can be more serence, better Rank 8Know and understand yourself better Rank 5 Learn when to be quiet / listen to what adults say Rank 3Learn how to control emotions (anger, joy) Rank 2 Other (mention it)…………………….. Rank 10

Source: The data in Table 8, analyzed in a multi-value manner, focusing on the modal value

It can be noted that the parents selected another three main reasons for the potential participation in a workshop of spiritual counseling in the same group as the students, or their children participating in a distinctive group: a) knowing how to solve arguments / conß icts; b) learning how to control emotions (anger, joy); c) learning when to be quiet / listen to the grown-ups. The selection of the Þ rst three ranks is representative of the problems faced by parents in children’s education, but also reveals conß icts of communication between generations (although the answers are more consistent in amplitude, with seven average scores lying around 5). Comparing the scores conveyed by the parents relative to the antonyms described by the questions 7 and 8, which characterized the personality of their children (the students, actually) through a strict reference to attachment and trust, validates the hypothesis of maintaining, through education, of discrimination of trust and respect in relation to gender children (female and male), which comes from the parents and is transmitted through education (questions 7 and 8 in Questionnaire 2); actually, it validates hypothesis H7, relating to discrimination of trust and respect in relation to the children’s gender (male and female), an attitude that clearly comes from the parents (questions 7 and 8 in Questionnaire 2) and is transmitted through education to the children. SpeciÞ cally, a higher score of is identiÞ ed (2.95) for the daughter than 2.27 for sons, with a broader Þ eld of spreading for boys (lying between -1 and 5) than in girls (lying between 1 and 5) for the individual scores (Table 10):


Mean and median discriminatory scores, and speciÞ c amplitude of parents’ trust in their children

Table no.10Questionnaire 2 SER01Daughter SER02 Son

Mean 2.95 2.275 Median 3.000 1.000 Maximum 5.000 5.000 Minimum 1.000 -1.000 Observations 40 40


The parents’ individual attitude, as recorded in the questionnaire, coincides with that of the students on the importance of faith in God: again, only three parents choose to answer no to question 9. The parents’ opinion of the mother as a person who has inß uenced the children’s life dominates, with a coverage of 37.5% according to question 10, but its dispersion is much broader, covering all sthe range of the answers a bit more substantially. Question 11 places good deeds in the Þ rst place (32.5%), followed by the importance of prayer (27.5%), Þ nally identifying those answers as dominant. The need for prayer (37.5%), alongside of that of getting serenity (20%) are the parents’ main answers to question 12 (Why in your opinion is it important to go to church?). The parents reconÞ rm the importance of the mother, or wife in general (62.5%), followed by that of the grandmother (17.5%) in identifying the most religious person in the family.

Average scores of parents for questions 14 and 15 in Questionnaire 2 (C2)Table no. 11

Questionnaire 2 I14 C2 I15 C2Mean 1.95 1.85 Median 2.00 1.50 Maximum 3.00 4.00 Minimum 1.00 1.00 Observations 40 40


Questions 14 and 15, described in Table 11, show moral values and dominant or modal variables; the main value that parents want their children eventually to achieve by faith remains love (according to the average score 1.95, and the 60% of the individual options) and honor or honesty (in keeping with the average – 1.85 and 50% of the individual options). Interestingly and also revealingly, no parent falls into the trap set by the questionnaire in question 14 (unlike their children), which a false variant answer is given, by punishing the unfaithful, which could represent a signal of a known and accepted tolerance, yet only partially transmitted through the education to the children.


The statistical confrontation or statistical comparison of the questionnaire 1 with questionnaire 2 considered three hypotheses, which were to be validated or not by this stage (H8, H9 and H10). Hypothesis H8, which said that the hierarchy coincides for the most part (two identical reasons placed in the top three) in the students’ and parents’ opinion of an extra-curricular school program or workshop for spiritual counseling (question 6 in both questionnaires) is not validated by statistical confrontation (the two views in Table 12 differ signiÞ cantly, and only one answer coincides in the hierarchy of the Þ rst three).

Confrontation of respondents’ hierarchies for Questionnaire 1 and 2 (question 6)

Table no. 12 Questionnaire 1, question 6 – Þ nal hierarchy Questionnaire 2, question 6 – Þ nal hierarchy

Know and understand yourself better Rank 1 Learn how quarrels/conß icts can be solved Rank1Know your parents’ wishes better Rank 2 Learn how to control emotions (anger, joy) Rank 2Learn how to control emotions (anger, joy) Rank 3 Learn when to be quiet/listen to what adults say Rank 3

Hypothesis 9 concerning the provision of relatively close scores (±20%) on trust and mutual attachment of the pupils (children) and their parents (questions 7 and 8 in both questionnaires) is validated according to the 10.6% deviation for question 7, and 8.08% for question 8 (Table 13):

Statistical confrontation of respondents’ scores for questions 7 and 8Table no. 13

Questionnaire 1 SER01 Mother SER02 Father Questionnaire 2 SER01Daughter SER02 Son Mean 3.300 2.475 Mean 2.950 2.275 Median 4.500 2.500 Median 3.000 1.000 Maximum 5.000 5.000 Maximum 5.000 5.000 Minimum -1.000 -5.000 Minimum 1.000 -1.000 Observations 40 40 Observations 40 40 Hypothesis H10 about statistically associating answers to questions 3 and 4, compared for Questionnaires 1 and 2, questions referring to the need for an extra-curricular school program and participation in it (outside the regular classes) in a special room (a workshop for spiritual counseling), where the student can ask a teacher about many of the concerns and troubles of his/her soul, is not validated with a distinct correlation matrix for each single question, through values of the correlation ratio R = 0.137 for question 3 (Questionnaire 1 and Questionnaire 2), and R = 0.624 for question 4 (Questionnaire 1 and Questionnaire 2). It is not the need or the participation that is invalidated, but rather its concrete solution, with most of the parents wanting advisory groups (including their own participation), and the students wanting counseling groups or individual counseling solutions, yet without the participation of parents). The statistical comparison highlights the normality of existence,


in both the dynamism of opinions from parents to children, concerning hierarchies and motivation, and the consistency of intergenerational trust, respect and attachment, which follows logically from validating hypothesis H9 and invalidating hypothesis H10. The invalidation of the hypothesis shows that that type of counselling is interpreted differently by parents, who signiÞ cantly opt for their participation in the act of spiritual counseling, and by the students, who excluded parent participation in the counseling activity itself.

4. SOME CONCLUSIONS AND LIMITATIONS OF THE RESEARCH A human society, in its post-Socratic educational processes, should – beyond the supreme rule of law and the idea of the fair judge – remember and value the martyr, the hero and the sage. This statement belongs to Mihai Eminescu, and justiÞ es the rigorously formulated and precisely outlined distinction between the three educational developments characterized by faith, courage and knowledge (mind, will and intellect): The martyr, the hero and the sage are three forms of one and the same substance: the truth. In relation to the initial hypotheses, those that still appeared, as a validated at the end of the psycho-pedagogical or sociological research focused on a statistical survey supported by parallel questionnaires for pupils and parents, were only hypotheses H8 and H10; the rest were invalidated after undertaking the analysis of the results of the investigation, which lends an outline of truthfulness to the statistical survey itself. The issue investigated was demonstrated as real and interesting in the Þ eld of education in Romania. This psycho-pedagogical research, focused on a statistical survey (making use of classical statistical investigative methods and techniques, and also of modern software packages), tried to Þ nd out to what extent spiritual counseling is or is not useful in contemporary society, more speciÞ cally in education in secondary school, in the curriculum and disciplinary context where, naturally, there is no lack of religion, civic education, history, mathematics, etc. The answer given by the respondent students and parents is afÞ rmative in proportions that could justify initiating, be it in the shape of a test, an extra-curricular school program (outside the regular classes), held in a special room (a workshop for spiritual counseling), where they can ask a teacher about many of their spiritual concerns and struggles. Of course there are also obvious limitations to the research, from its pioneering character to the time and Þ nancial resources possessed and invested to conduct it practically. If most of the conclusions suffer from a relative character, this is due to the sampling technique involving samples obtained through volunteering, with parallel samples of 40 students and 40


parents, whose opinions were investigated through Questionnaires 1 and 2. In other words, the research cannot eventually quantify a margin of error in point of representativity, in statistic and mathematical terms, for those self-directed samples. It can however be noted that, given some actual available Þ nancial resources, and a database of national sampling, one can transform the character of such opinions from people who have volunteered to Þ ll in the questionnaires, into the truths probabilistically expressed, and accompanied by errors and signiÞ cation thresholds in keeping with the modern theory of statistical sampling, by making use of a stratiÞ ed survey with random errors in each layer being calculated in relation to different criteria, rural or urban areas, ISCED category, national or global incidence religions, etc. A long-term perspective can identify spiritual counseling as an alternative to contemporary religious education, an alternative that respects the modern constitutional right of religious freedom.

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