tomi volume X - PGIE.TSU.GE€¦ · “ekonomisti”, “Ekonomisti” #3,2016 s a r C e v i - C O N T E N T S sazogadoebrivi seqtoris ekonomika – ECONOMY OF SOCIAL SECTOR rozeta

2016

3

tomi-volumeX

UDC33E e-49

ivane javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis saxelmwifo universitetipaata guguSvilis ekonomikis instituti

Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University Paata Gugushvili Institute ofEconomics

ekonomisti

ekonomisti

2016

3

tomi-volumeX

“ekonomisti”, “Ekonomisti” #3, 2016

2

ivane javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis saxelmwifo universitetipaata guguSvilis ekonomikis instituti

saerTaSoriso recenzirebadi samecniero-analitikuri Jurnali

Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University Paata Gugushvili Institute ofEconomics

International Reviewed Scientific-Analytical Journal

gamodis 2009 wlis ianvridan or TveSi erTxel,2016 wlidan _ kvartalSi erTxel

Published scince January 2009 once in two months,Scince 2016 - Quarterly

redaqciis misamarTi: Tbilisi, 0105, g. qiqoZis q. 14;tel.: 293 34 44; 599 970103.

Edress: Tbilisi, 0105, Kikodze street,tel. (+995 32) 293 34 44; 599 970103.


profesorebi:samecniero-saredaqcio sabWo

ramaz abesaZe (mTavari redaqtori), iuri ananiaSvili, rozeta asaTiani, givibedianaSvili, Teimuraz beriZe, giorgi berulava, vaxtang burduli, revazgvelesiani, revaz gogoxia, revaz kakulia, Temur kandelaki, murman kva-racxelia, alfred kurataSvili, elguja meqvabiSvili, solomonpavliaSvili, vladimer papava (akademikosi), uSangi samadaSvili, rolandsarCimelia, avTandil silagaZe (akademikosi), avTandil sulaberiZe,Teimuraz Sengelia, Tina CxeiZe, nodar WiTanava, nodar xaduri, eTerxaraiSvili, mixeil jibuti.

mTavari redaqtoris TanaSemwe _ ekonomikis doqtori mamuka xuskivaZepasuxismgebeli mdivani _ ekonomikis doqtori Tea lazaraSvili

samecniero-saredaqcio sabWos ucxoeli wevrebi

larisa belinskaia (vilniusis universiteti), ruslan grinbergi (ruseTismecnierebaTa akademiis ekonomikis instituti), simone guerCini (flo-renciis universiteti), volfgang vengi (berlinis teqnikuri universiteti),tomas d. vileti (klermontis universiteti), eldar ismailovi (baqos so-cialuri marTvisa da politologiis instituti), gindra kasnauskiene(vilniusis universitetis saerTaSoriso biznesis skola), slavomir par-ticki (ioane pavle II-s saxelobis lublianas kaTolikuri universiteti),galina savina (xarkovis teqnikuri universiteti), dimitri sorokini (ruse-Tis mecnierebaTa akademiis ekonomikis instituti), darol j. steinli(peperdainis universiteti), aleqs stupnicki (taras SevCenkos saxelobiskievis erovnuli universiteti).

Professors:SCIENTIFIC EDITORIAL COUNCIL

Ramaz Abesadze (Editor-in-chief), Yuri Ananiashvili, Rosetta Asatiani, Givi Bedianashvili,Teimuraz Beridze, Giorgi Berulava, Vakhtang Burduli, Nodar Chitanava, Tina Chkheidze,Revaz Gogokhia, Revaz Gvelesiani, Mikheil Jibuti, Revaz Kakulia, Nodar Khaduri, EterKharaishvili, Alfred Kuratashvili, Murman Kvaratskhelia, Temur Kandelaki, Elguja Mek-vabishvili, Vladimer Papava (academician), Solomon Pavliashvili, Ushang Samadashvili,Roland Sarchimelia, Teimuraz Shengelia, Avtandil Silagadze (academician), AvtandilSulaberidze.

Assistant Editor-in-chief _ Doctors of economics Mamuka KhuskivadzeExecutive Secretary _ Doctors of economics Tea lazarashvili

FOREIGN MEMBERS OF THE SCIENTIFIC EDITORIAL COUNCIL

Larisa Belinskaia (Vilnius University), Ruslan Grinberg (Institute of Economics of RAS), Si-mone Guercini (University of Florence), Eldar Ismailov (Baku Institute of Social Managementand Political Science), Gindra Kasnauskiene (International Business School of Vilnius Univer-sity), Slavomir Partycki (The John Paul II Catholic University of Lublin), Galina Savina(Kharkiv Technical University), Dmitri Sorokin (Institute of Economics of RAS), Darrol J.Stanley (University of Pepperdine), Oleksiy Stupnitskyy (Taras Shevchenko National Univer-sity of Kyiv), Wolfgang Weng (Technical University of Berlin), Thomas D. Willett (ClaremontGraduate University).

3


s a r C e v i - C O N T E N T S

sazogadoebrivi seqtoris ekonomika –ECONOMY OF SOCIAL SECTOR

rozeta asaTiani _ sazogadoebrivi seqtoris ekonomikis, rogorcmecnierebis, genezisi 5

Rozeta Asatiani – Genesis of social sector of economy as science(Expanded Summary) 15

regionuli ekonomika – REGIONAL ECONOMY

Вахтанг Бурдули _ Oценка экономического состояния регионов грузии и общиенаправления его улучшения 18Vakhtang Burduli – Assessment of Economic State of the Regions of Georgia andGeneral Directions of its Improvement (Expanded Summary) 37vaxtang burduli _ saqarTvelos regionebis ekonomikuri mdgo-mareobis Sefaseba da misi gaumjobesebis zogadi mimarTulebebi

(vrceli reziume) 43

momsaxurebis ekonomika – SERVICE ECONOMY

George Berulava – Services Sector Reformation and Enhancement of Export Activityof Manufacturing Firms: Evidence from Transition Economies 51giorgi berulava _ saeqsporto saqmianobis gaumjobeseba gadama-muSavebeli mrewvelobis sawarmoebSi gardamavali ekonomikis mqone

qveynebSi: rogoria momsaxurebis dargebis reformebis roli?

(vrceli reziume) 66

makroekonomika – MACROECONOMICS

Lasha Kavtaradze – Investigating Savings-Investment Gap in Georgia 70

laSa qavTaraZe _ danazogebi-investiciebis gapis gamokvleva

saqarTveloSi (vrceli reziume) 83

magistrantebisa da doqtorantebis samecniero naSromebiSCIENTIFIC WORKS OF UNDERGRADUATES AND DOCTORAL STUDENTS

Tengiz TaqTaqiSvili _ agraruli seqtoris subsidirebis miznebi

da formebi 86

Tengiz Taktakishvili _ Aims and forms of agricultural subsidies (Expanded Summary) 93

REVAZ KAKULIA - 80 95

4


sazogadoebrivi seqtoria ekonomikaECONOMY OF SOCIAL SECTOR

rozeta asaTianiekonomikur mecnierebaTa

doqtori, profesori

sazogadoebrivi seqtoris ekonomikis, rogorc mecnierebis, genezisi

reziume

dRes saqarTveloSi Seqmnili araordinaluri socialur-ekono-

mikuri (da ara mxolod igi) situacia mraval rTul problemas warmoq-mnis, romelTa Soris erT-erTi umTavresi socialuri problemebia. qve-

yanaSi Seqmnilma mdgomareobam adamianis biologiuri arsebobac ki

kiTxvis qveS daayena, ramac uaryofiTi gavlena moaxdina saqarTvelos

saerTaSoriso imijze. amitom mraval sxva problemasTan erTad auci-lebelia socialuri problemebis mogvareba, rac ekonomikas miscems

socialur orientacias da sabazro ekonomikaze gadasvlis realur

Sanss. amasTan dakavSirebiT gansakuTrebuli roliakisria sazo-

gadoebrivi seqtoris ekonomikas, rogorc ekonomikuri Teoriis axalganStoebas. makroekonomikurma Teoriam safuZveli Cauyara ekonomikuri

mecnierebis am dargis ganviTarebas. igi organul kavSirSia saxelmwifo

finansebis TeoriasTan, ekonomikuri politikis marTvasTan, momsaxu-rebis ekonomikasTan da a.S.

sabazro ekonomikaze gadasvla ara mxolod fasebis liberaliza-ciasa da kerZo sakuTrebis SemoRebas gulisxmobs, aramed adekvaturisabazro institutebis formirebas moiTxovs. saqarTvelo XXI saukuneSiSevida Rrma finansuri (da ara mxolod finansuri) krizisis pirobebSi.iseTi STabeWdileba Seiqmna, rom saxelmwifom ekonomikis sferoSi

moixsna pasuxismgeblobis tvirTi da ùxilav xels~ gadaakisra. sam-wuxarod, rogor miesadageba saqarTveloSi mimdinare socialur-eko-nomikuri movlenebi da procesebi kapitalizmis warmoSobisa da ganvi-Tarebis adreul periods. ra Tqma unda, ar gamovricxavT imas, rom sxva

qveynebSic (igulisxmeba `mesame samyaros~ qveynebi) mimdinareobs analo-giuri procesebi, magram am SemTxvevaSi msoflioSi aprobirebulipozitiuri cvlilebebis fonze, rodesac Cven SegveZlo meurneobriobis

progresuli formebisa da meTodebis danergva da `veluri~ kapitaliz-mis gverdis avliT sabazro ekonomikaze gadasvla, metad dasanania, romaRmovCndiT uaRresad mZime situaciaSi da davadeqiT im grZel da Znelgzas, romelic Zalze mtkivneulad gaiara civilizebulma samyarom.

ganviTarebuli qveynebis gamocdilebidan Cans, saxelmwifo xarje-bis politikaSi centraluri adgili sazogadoebaSi socialuri stabi-lurobis uzrunvelyofis xarjebs uWiravs. naklebad uzrunvelyofilimosaxleobis jgufebis mxardamWeri socialuri programebis dafinanse-

5


basTan erTad sabiujeto saxsrebis garkveuli nawili gamoiyofa socia-lur-kulturuli dargebis ganviTarebis saxelmwifo programebisaTvis.

socialur sferoSi aqtiuri rolis SesrulebiT saxelmwifo socialu-rad orientirebuli, keTildReobis saxelmwifos niSnebs iZens. mosax-leobis saSualo fenis gaZlierebiT saxelmwifo aparati kargavs kon-servatiul-biurokratiul xasiaTs, Zlierdeba kerZo struqturebis so-cialuri pasuxismgebloba. samoqalaqo sazogadoebis institutebisa dahumanizaciis procesebis gaZlierebiT warmoSobili axali problemebiamdidrebs sazogadoebrivi seqtoris ekonomikis Sinaarss.

sakvanZo sityvebi: sazogadoebrivi, seqtori, ekonomika, sabazro

ekonomika, sazogadoebrivi seqtoris ekonomika.

Sesavali

sazogadoebrivi seqtoris ekonomikis, rogorc mecnierebis, warmo-Soba sazogadoebrivi progresiTaa ganpirobebuli da igi drois moTxov-naa. misi Camoyalibeba intensiurad, sabazro ekonomikis formirebis

kvaldakval, XX saukunis II naxevridan, gansakuTrebiT ki, 60-iani wlebi-dan daiwyo. amasTan, igi, rogorc saswavlo disciplina, farTod dainer-ga mravali qveynis umaRles saswavleblebSi, maT Soris, postkomunis-tur qveynebSic, (gamovida cnobil mecnierTa _ J. stiglicis, a. atkinso-nis, m. ringkvistis, l. iakobsonis, e. Jilcovisa da a.S. Sromebi) saqar-TveloSi ki, miuxedavad winamdebare statiis avtoris mcdelobisa,mxolod axla idgams fexs.

***

sazogadoebrivi seqtoris ekonomikis warmoSobas win uZRoda

obieqturi wanamZRvrebi, ramac safuZveli Cauyara ekonomikuri mecnie-rebis am SedarebiT axali dargis ganviTarebas. es sakiTxi ar aris viw-ro CarCoebSi moqceuli lokaluri sakiTxi, amasTan, igi organul kav-SirSia sxva globalur sakiTxebTan. am process xeli Seuwyo, erTimxriv, ekonomikuri mimdinareobebisa da Teoriebis ganviTarebam, xolo,

meore mxriv, sazogadoebriv warmoebaSi mimdinare progresulma struq-turulma cvlilebebma, maT Soris, teqnologiebis sferoSi.

kapitalizmis transformaciis Sedegad kerZo kapitalisturi sa-

kuTrebis batonobaze dafuZnebuli ekonomikuri sistemis axal Tviseb-riobaSi gadazrdam traeqtoria Seucvala msoflios ganviTarebas.

sakuTrebis pluralizmze dafuZnebuli sabazro sistemis ZiriTad

maxasiaTeblad, bazris principebis realizaciasTan erTad, socialuri

orientacia iqna aRiarebuli, ramac, Tavis mxriv, daadastura ekonomikis

saxelmwifo regulirebis aucileblobis Sesaxeb keinzianuri Teoriis

6


siswore. saxelmwifom Tavis Tavze aiRo bazris `Secdomebis~ gamoswo-reba, rac humanizaciis msoflio procesis safuZveli gaxda.

socialurad orientirebuli ekonomikis anu sabazro ekonomikis

formireba drois moTxovnad Sefasda, metic, igi Tanamedrove msoflios

ganviTarebis mniSvnelovan tendenciad iqca da msoflios axali

wesrigisa da samoqalaqo sazogadoebis formirebis garantadiqna

aRiarebuli. am garemoebam xeli Seuwyo zneobrivi faseulobebis wina

planze wamowevas, romelmac Camoitova manamde fesvebgadgmuli, socia-luri instinqtebiT ganpirobebuli moTxovnilebebi da maTze maRla

dadga. Camoyalibda ori tipis sazogadoeba _ Caketili da Ria. Caketili

_ totalitaruli sazogadoeba, romlis pirobebSi pirovneba koleqtivis

msxverplad iqca da Ria _ humanuri sazogadoeba, romelic demokrati-uli faseulobebis ganviTarebis sawindaria. ukanasknel periodSi msof-lioSi socialurobis tendenciis gaZlierebam kanonzomieri xasiaTi

miiRo, socialurma orientaciam sabazro ekonomika politikurad

sicocxlisunariani gaxada.

ekonomikisaTvis sicocxlisunarianobis miniWebaSi udidesi roli

50-ian wlebSi dawyebulma mecnierul-teqnikurma revoluciam Seasrula,

romelmac gamoiwvia sazogadoebrivi warmoebis struqturuli gardaqmna,

momsaxurebis mwarmoebeli dargebis daCqarebuli ganviTareba da moam-zada pirobebi industriuli sazogadoebis postindustriulSi gadazr-disaTvis. msoflios ekonomikuri ganviTarebis axal istoriaSi revolu-ciur maxasiaTeblad warmoCnda momsaxurebis seqtoris wilis upiratesi

zrda danarCen or seqtorTan SedarebiT. es mniSvnelovani Teoriuli

paradigmebi realurad aisaxa ekonomikaSi mimdinare procesebSi da sa-fuZvlad daedo gaeros saerTaSoriso standartul dargobriv klasi-fikaciis processa da erovnul angariSTa sistemas. postindustriuli

sazogadoebis CamoyalibebiT daiwyo axali era kacobriobis istoriaSi.

es axali msoflio wesrigisa da samoqalaqo sazogadoebis mSeneblobis

dasawyisi iyo.

am obieqturma wanamZRvrebma safuZveli Cauyares sazogadoebrivi

seqtoris ekonomikis warmoSobasa da ganviTarebas. ekonomikis mecnie-rebis arc erTi dargisTvis ar aris niSandoblivi iseTi Zlieri integ-rirebuli sawyisi, rogoric ekonomikuri Teoriis, kerZod, makroeko-nomikuri Teoriis am axali ganStoebis _ sazogadoebrivi seqtoris eko-nomikisTvisaa. ekonomikisTvis socialuri orientaciis miniWebiT winaplanze sazogadoebrivi interesebi wamoiwia. man gazarda saxelmwifos

roli qveynis makroekonomikur regulirebaSi. fundamenturi probleme-bis gadasawyvetad, sakmarisi ar aris mxolod moTxovniT gamoxatuli

individualuri momxmareblebis interesebis gaTvaliswineba. aucilebe-lia sazogadoebrivi interesebis dacvac, raSic gadamwyvet rols sa-xelmwifo asrulebs (amitomacaa, rom ekonomikur literaturaSi sazoga-doebrivi seqtoris ekonomika zogjer gaigivebulia saxelmwifo seqto-ris ekonomikasTan).

7


sazogadoebrivi seqtoris ekonomika Seiswavlis sazogadoebrivi

moTxovnilebebis maqsimalurad dakmayofilebis mizniT saxelmwifo

seqtorSi arsebuli SezRuduli resursebis efeqtianad gamoyenebis

gzebsa da optimaluri arCevanis problemas. am resursebis racionalur

gamoyenebaze didad aris damokidebuli qveynis ekonomikis mdgomareoba,

gansakuTrebiT is, Tu ramdenad aris igi socialurad orientirebuli.

amitom SeuzRudavi sazogadoebrivi moTxovnilebebis maqsimalurad dak-mayofilebis mizniT gansakuTrebuli yuradReba unda mieqces SezRu-duli resursebis efeqtianad gamoyenebis gzebis Ziebasa da optimaluri

arCevanis problemas.

industriulma epoqam, romelic kapitalisturi ekonomikuri siste-mis ganmtkicebasa da ganviTarebas ukavSirdeba, dasabami misca xangrZ-liv istoriul cikls, romlisTvisac damaxasiaTebeli iyo kerZo inte-resebis prioriteti sazogadoebrivTan SedarebiT, ùxilavi xelis~ meS-veobiT. am periodSi yuradRebis centrSi idga calkeuli firma, misidanaxarjebis minimizaciisa da mogebis maqsimizaciis problema. es iyo

makroekonomikuri paradigmebisa da sazogadoebrivi keTildReobis indi-vidualuri koncefciis batonobis epoqa. misi ideologia adamians gani-xilavda, rogorc ekonomikur fenomens, rogorc warmoebis saSualebas

da ara rogorc sazogadoebrivi warmoebis mizans. sazogadoebriv in-teresebze kerZo interesebis prioritetis periodi aRiniSna korufciis

zrdiTa da sxva antisocialuri movlenebiT, maT Soris, sazogadoebrivi

moralis deformaciiT. es epoqa moicavs XVIII-XIX saukuneebis mijnidanXX saukunis 50-ian wlebamde periods.

dasavluri civilizaciis industriuli ganviTarebis pirveletapze ekonomikur TeoriaSi gabatonebulma smiTiseulma koncefciam,

romelic saxelmwifos ganixilavda rogorc `Ramis darajs~, saxelmwi-fo saqmianobas ki _ aramwarmoeblur Sromad, adgili dauTmo keinzia-nur mimarTulebas, romelmac uaryo ekonomikaSi gabatonebuli mikro-ekonomikuri midgoma da centraluri adgili makroekonomikur Teoriasada, aqedan gamomdinare, ekonomikis saxelmwifo regulirebas miakuTvna.

keinzis Teoriis mixedviT, calkeuli firmis ayvavebis pirobebi SeiZ-leba ar emTxveodes mTeli ekonomikis ganviTarebis pirobebs, xolo maT

Soris warmoSobili winaaRmdegobebis gadaWra SesaZlebelia ara calke-uli firmebis mogebis maqsimizaciiT, aramed makroekonomikuri propor-ciebis aRdgeniTa da kvlavwarmoebis saerTo pirobebis srulyofiT, ra-Sic gadamwyveti roli saxelmwifos ekisreba.

sabazro ekonomikis regulirebis keinzianuri modeli warmatebiT

gamoiyeneboda ganviTarebuli qveynebis ekonomikur politikaSi 70-iani

wlebis Sua xanebamde. am modelis realuri gansaxierebaa socialurad

orientirebuli sabazro ekonomikis Camoyalibebis ideis praqtikuli

ganxorcielebis dawyeba gfr-sa da sxva ganviTarebul qveynebSi. aSS-Si

swored am periodSi gaatares siRaribesTan brZolis farTomasStaburi

RonisZiebebi, maT Soris, janmrTelobis dacvis sferoSi miiRes iseTi

8


cnobili programa, rogoricaa `medikeri~ _ pensionerebisa da invali-debisaTvis samedicino daxmarebis saxelmwifo socialuri programa da

`medikeidi~ _ mosaxleobis naklebuzrunvelyofili fenebis dacvis so-cialuri programa.

miuxedavad amisa, 70-iani wlebis meore naxevridan dasavleTis qvey-nebis ekonomikaSi saxelmwifos metismeti Carevis uaryofiTma Sedegebma

gamoiwvia inflaciis gaZliereba, biujetis deficitisa da saxelmwifo

valis zrda, gadasaxadebis gadideba, rasac mohyva ekonomikuri zrdis

Seneleba. marTali, keinzianuri modelis mowinaaRmdegeTa Sexedule-bebis `renesansma~ xelSemwyobi pirobebis Seqmna `saxelmwifo minimumis~

klasikuri Teoriis aRorZinebisaTvis da neoklasikuri Teoriebis Ziri-Tadi debulebebi aisaxa kidec ganviTarebuli qveynebis ekonomikur po-litikaSi. am TvalsazrisiT, `neoklasikurma sinTezma~ mniSvnelovani

roli Seasrula. magram sazogadoebriv seqtors ar daukargavs Tavisi

roli sazogadoebrivi interesebis realizaciis mxriv, gansakuTrebiT

90-iani wlebis dasawyisSi ganviTarebuli movlenebis Semdeg. amitomacaa,

rom Tanamedrove pirobebSi ganviTarebul qveynebSi gansakuTrebuli

yuradReba eqceva ekonomikuri Teoriebis mniSvnelovani postulatebis

gaTvaliswinebas saxelmwifosa da bazris urTierTobaSi.

sazogadoebrivi seqtoris ekonomikis ganviTarebaze didi gavlena

iqonia XX saukunis Sua xanebSi dawyebulma mecnierul-teqnikurma

revoluciam, romelmac mZlavri biZgi misca sazogadoebrivi warmoebis

progresul struqturul gardaqmnebs. daiwyo momsaxurebis mwarmoebeli

dargebis swrafi ganviTareba. 60-iani wlebis dasawyisSi Camoyalibda

industriuli sazogadoebidan postindustriulze gadasvlis Teoriuli

safuZvlebi, romlis mniSvnelovani maxasiaTebeli momsaxurebis seqto-ris wilis upiratesi zrda unda yofiliyo danarCen or seqtorTan

SedarebiT. mecnierTa absoluturi umravlesobis azriT, es gadasvla

iqneboda ara miRweulidan ukan daxeva, aramed, piriqiT, ufro maRali

socialuri wesrigis gamarjveba.

aRniSnuli Teoriuli paradigmebi praqtikulad ganxorcielda da

ekonomikaSi mimdinare tendenciebi realurad aisaxa gaeros ssdk-sa da

erovnuli angariSebis sistemaSi. Tu ssdk-is I variantSi (1958 w.) mom-saxurebis dargebs mokrZalebuli adgili ekava, mis II variantSi (1968 w.)

gacilebiT farTod iqna warmodgenili `servisuli~ warmoeba, xolo 1989

wels miRebul erovnul angariSTa sistemis III variantSi momsaxurebis

ekonomikas soliduri adgili eWira _ 17 ganyofilebidan 5 moicavda

materialur-nivTobrivi warmoebis sferos (soflis meurneobasa da

industrias), xolo danarCeni 12 _ momsaxurebis sferos. 2008 wlidan

dRemde moqmedebaSia erovnul angariSTa sistemis IV varianti, romel-Sic mniSvnelovani adgili informaciul teqnologiebs uWiravT.

aseTi dayofis aucilebloba kidev ufro ganamtkica 80-iani wlebis

dasawyisSi ganviTarebuli qveynebis piradi moxmarebis struqturaSi

materialuri dovlaTis intensiurma Semcirebam da sxvadasxva saxis

9


momsaxurebis wilis gadidebam. sazogadoebis ganviTarebaSi mniSvnelo-vani roli daekisra socialur infrastruqturas. amis paralelurad

sawarmoo moxmarebis struqturaSi sagrZnoblad imata warmoebrivi

infrastruqturis wilma. ekonomikis saxelmwifo regulirebis gaZlie-rebam ganapiroba instituciuri infrastruqturis ganviTareba. teqno-logiurma bumma aucilebeli gaxada ekologiuri infrastruqturis gan-viTarebac. (amJamad dasavleTSi termini _ `garemos dacva~ `raciona-luri bunebaTsargeblobiT~ Seicvala). sabazro urTierTobebis rTulma

sistemam moiTxova agreTve sabazro infrastruqturis ganviTareba. bir-Jis saxiT farTod Camoyalibda sxvadasxva organizebuli bazrebi _

saqonlis, valutis, Sromis, safondo birJebis saxiT. momsaxurebis mwar-moebeli dargebis integrirebis safuZvelze Seqmnili infrastruqtura

sabazro ekonomikis normaluri funqcionirebis mniSvnelovani maxa-siaTebeli gaxda. ekonomikis `serizaciam~ moicva civilizebuli samyaro.

materialur-nivTobrivi warmoeba masTan mizez-Sedegobriv kavSirurTi-erTobaSi aRmoCnda. momsaxureba rogorc sawarmoo, ise piradi moxmare-bis swrafad mzardi ingredienti gaxda. metic, am procesma Tvisebrivad

axali etapi Seqmna sawarmoo Zalebis ganviTarebaSi, realobad aqcia

industriuli sazogadoebis transformacia ufro maRal istoriul

fazaSi _ dasabami misca postindustriul eras. rac mTavaria, am gadasv-liT yuradReba gamaxvilda axali sazogadoebis formirebaze, axal

sociumze. daiwyo tradiciuli socialuri struqturebis arsebiTi

modifikacia, safuZveli Caeyara samoqalaqo sazogadoebis formirebas.

am garemoebam wina planze wamoswia sazogadoebrivi interesebi da

dadebiTi gavlena moaxdina Tanamedrove sazogadoebispotencialis

zrdaze. sazogadoebrivi interesebis warmoCenam kidev ufro gazarda

saxelmwifos roli ekonomikaSi.

pasuxi sabazro ekonomikis triadaze _ ra? rogor? visTvis? ar

SeiZleba Semoifarglos kerZo saqonlisa da momsaxurebis kvlavwar-moebis sferoTi. am fundamenturi problemebis gadasawyvetad sakmarisi

ar aris mxolod moTxovniT gamoxatuli individualuri momxmareblebis

interesebis gaTvaliswineba, aucilebelia sazogadoebrivi interesebis

dacvac, raSic diriJoris roli saxelmwifom unda Seasrulos. sazo-gadoebrivma seqtorma, sabazro sistemis zogad Teoriul principebze

dayrdnobiT, bazris prizmaSi gavliTa da sazogadoebis interesebis

gaTvaliswinebiT unda daareguliros Tavisi saqmianoba ekonomikaSi.

sazogadoebrivi seqtoris ekonomikis kvlevis sferoSia moqceuli

ekonomikis arasabazro seqtori, rac, bazris naklovanebebidan gamom-dinare, uSualod ukavSirdeba sazogadoebrivi saqonlis warmoebas, gare

efeqtebis gazomvasa da bunebrivi monopoliebis arsebobis aucileblo-bis dasabuTebas, romelTa gareSe zedmetia saubari socialur refor-mebze. saxelmwifosadmi erT-erTi mkacri moTxovnaa alokaciuri funq-ciis Sesruleba, rac ukavSirdeba gansazRvruli saxis saqonlisa da

momsaxurebis warmoebas, anu dasavleTSi sakmaod aprobirebuli sazoga-10


doebrivi saqonlis warmoebas, romelic ar SeiZleba sabazro fasiT

miewodos mosaxleobas. WeSmariti socialuri reformebi iwyeba maSin,

rodesac saxelmwifo SeimuSavebs qveynis interesebidan gamomdinare ka-nonmdeblobas (maT Soris, antimonopoliursac), moqnili fiskaluri da

fulad-sakredito politikis gatarebiT, konkurenciis dacviT, jansaRi

sainvesticio klimatis SeqmniT, mcire biznesis waxalisebiT da, saerod,

mosaxleobis saqmiani aqtiurobis gazrdiT moaxdens sabazro uwo-nasworobis1 minimizacias, iseT mimarTulebas miscems bazars, romelic

ganapirobebs pirovnebis SesaZleblobaTa realizacias. es problemebic,

romelTa gadaWrasac socialurad orientirebuli ekonomikisaken mivya-varT, sazogadoebrivi seqtoris ekonomikis kvlevis sferoa.

sazogadoebrivi seqtoris ekonomikis kvlevis arealSia qveynis

ekonomikuri usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofac. es ukanaskneli sakiTxTa

farTo wres moicavs, erovnuli usafrTxoebis Semadgeneli nawili da

misi materialuri safuZvelia. ekonomikuri usafrTxoebis strategiaSi

gansakuTrebuli yuradReba eqceva ekonomikuri usafrTxoebis kriteriu-mebisa da parametrebis SemuSavebas, rac sazogadoebrivi seqtoris eko-nomikis prerogativaa.

rogorc ganviTarebuli qveynebis gamocdilebidan Cans, saxelmwifo

xarjebis politikaSi centraluri adgili socialuri stabilurobis

uzrunvelyofis sakiTxebs uWiravs. naklebad uzrunvelyofili mosax-leobis jgufebis mxardamWeri socialuri programebis dafinansebasTan

erTad, sabiujeto saxsrebis garkveuli nawili gamoiyofa socialur-

kulturuli dargebis ganviTarebis saxelmwifo programebisaTvis. soci-alur sferoSi aqtiuri rolis SesrulebiT saxelmwifo socialurad

orientirebuli, `keTildReobis saxelmwifos~ niSnebs iZens. mosaxleo-bis saSualo fenis gaZlierebiT saxelmwifo aparati kargavs konser-vatiul-biurokratiul xasiaTs, Zlierdeba kerZo struqturebis socia-luri pasuxismgebloba. samoqalaqo sazogadoebis institutebisa da

humanizaciis procesebis gaZlierebiT warmoSobili axali problemebi

amdidrebs sazogadoebrivi seqtoris ekonomikis Sinaarss. gadasaxadebi

rogorc saxelmwifos mier sazogadoebisaTvis gaweuli momsaxurebis

safasuri, ekonomikis stimulirebisa da regulirebis umniSvnelovanesi

berketi da sabiujeto Semosavlebis ZiriTadi wyaro, wina planze aye-nebs dabegvris Teoriis sakiTxebs gadasaxadebisa da ekonomikuri efeq-tianobis urTierTqmedebis WrilSi da saxelmwifos rols optimaluri

dabegvris funqcionirebaSi. am kuTxiTac gadasaxadebis mravawaxnagovani

fenomenic sazogadoebrivi seqtoris ekonomikis kvlevis sagania.

1 sabazro uwonasworobis naTeli magaliTia, 2014 wlis monacemebiT, saqarTveloSi TviT-uzrunvelyofis done rigi sasoflo-sameurneo produqciis mixedviT (adgilobriviwarmoebis Tanafardoba sasursaTo moxmarebasTan): xorbali 8%, frinvelis xorci 25%,xorci 41%, bostneuli 70% da a.S.

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saxelmwifo biujetis deficitis globaluri problema gansakuT-rebul mniSvnelobas aniWebs saxelmwifo xarjebis optimaluri ganawi-lebis sakiTxs. amasTan dakavSirebiT metad aqtualuri xdeba sabiujeto

federalizmis sakiTxebis kvleva, romelic sazogadoebrivi seqtoris

ekonomikis Seswavlis erT-erTi sferoa.

postkomunistur qveynebSi sabazro ekonomikaze gardamavali peri-odis problemebi kidev ufro afarToebs sazogadoebrivi seqtoris eko-nomikis kvlevis areals.

saqarTveloSi ekonomikis transformaciis procesebis swori warma-

rTvisaTvis gansakuTrebuli yuradReba unda mieqces ekonomikuri

mecnierebis am dargis kvlevasa da am specialobiT kadrebis momzadebas.

amas gvavalebs dRevandeli saqarTvelos finansuri dilema da is mwvave

makroekonomikuri problemebi, romelTa Tundac nawilobrivi gadaWra

dRes, aseT situaciaSi SeuZlebelia. bazris ùxilavi xelisa~ da sa-xelmwifos `xiluli xelis~ optimaluri Sexameba socialurad orien-tirebuli efeqtiani ekonomikis Seqmnis aucilebeli pirobaa.

sagulisxmoa erTi metad mniSvnelovani garemoeba: sankt-peter-burgSi sazogadoebrivi seqtoris reformirebisadmi miZRvnil mesame

saerTaSoriso konferenciaze (jer kidev, 2000 wlis 2-3 ivnisi) dafuZnda

sazogadoebrivi seqtoris ekonomikis mkvlevarTa asociacia (ASPE),romlis mizania sazogadoebrivi seqtoris ekonomikuri problemebis

Seswavla. igi araformaluri gaerTianebaa, romelic Tavis saqmianobas

axorcielebs stokholmis universitetisa da sankt-peterburgis saxel-mwifo universitetis erToblivi proeqtis CarCoebSi da iTvaliswinebs:

yovelwliur saerTaSoriso samecniero konferenciis organizebas,

asociaciis samecniero moxsenebebis gamoqveynebas, seminarebis mowyobas,

ucxoeli specialistebis leqciebis organizebasa da a.S. es aprobire-buli praqtika, vfiqrobT,gasaTvaliswinebelia saqarTvelos si-namdvileSic.

daskvna

saqarTvelosTvis aseT kritikul situaciaSi aucilebelia Sevimu-SaoT mecnieruli paradigma, romelic gaiTvaliswinebs sazogadoebriv,

koleqtiur da individualur moTxovnilebaTa balanss. amisaTvis ki

saWiroa ara zedapiruli Sefasebebi, aramed Rrma analizi, romelic

daefuZneba fundamentur koncefciebs da daamyarebs kavSirs mizezebsa

da Sedegebs Soris. es saSualebas mogvcems ganvasxvavoT miRweuli

sasurvelisagan, Tavi davaRwioT iluziebsa da zedmet danakargebs. am

TvalsazrisiT, sazogadoebrivi seqtoris ekonomikis kvleva da Sesaba-misi kadrebis momzadeba garkveul wvlils Seitans qveynis aRmSeneb-lobis saqmeSi.

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5. Coase R. 1996. The Problem of Social Cost. “Journal of Law and Economics”. Vol. 3.6. Joseph E. Stiglitz. 1999. Economics of the public sector. Second Edition. New York-

London. “W.W Nortonn & Company”.7. Маргарита Ринквист. 1995. Об общественном секторе: что он дает и что берет.

Стокгольм.8. Якобсен П. 2008. Экономика общественного сектора. М., «Аспект пресс», 2000;

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3. asaTiani r. 2003. axali msoflio wesrigi da samoqalaqo sazoga-doebis mSenebloba. `makro mikro ekonomika~, #4.

4. asaTiani r. 2012. globalizacia, religiur eTikaze agebuli ekono-mikuri politika da saqarTvelo. `saqarTvelos ekonomika~. mTavari

redaqtori asaTiani r. Tbilisi, `siaxle~.

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6. keinzi jon meinard. 1995. dasaqmebis, sargeblisa da fulis zogadi

Teoria. Targmani inglisuridan. quTaisi.

7. krugmani p. 2009. rogor moaxerxes ekonomistebma yvelafris araswo-rad gageba? Targmani inglisuridan. `saqarTvelos ekonomika~, #10.

8. papava v. 1995. saxelmwifos roli Tanamedrove ekonomikur sistemaSi.

èkonomika~, #7-9.

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9. papava v. 1999. sabazro wonasworobis doqtrina. Tbilisi.

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Targmani inglisuridan. Tbilisi.

12. saqarTvelos kaTolikos-patriarqi ilia II. 2004. socialur-eko-nomikuri ganviTarebis aqtualuri sakiTxebis Sesaxeb. Semdgeneli g.

SixaSvili. Tbilisi, `geokeria~.

13. silagaZe a. 2012. ekonomikuri doqtrinebi. Tbilisi, ìnovacia~.

14. smiTi a. gamokvleva xalxTa simdidris bunebisa da mizezebis Sesaxeb.

Targmani inglisuridan. Tbilisi, 1938;

15. Ciqava l. 2012. dasaqmeba da umuSevroba saqarTveloSi. Tbilisi, gamom-cemloba ùniversali~.

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aucilebloba da saxelmwifos ekonomikuri politikis Camoyalibebis

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Tbilisi, ìnovacia~.

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19. Friedman M. 1992. Capitalism and Freedom. Chicago. “Univ. of Chicago Press”.20. Гэлбреит Дж. 1979. Экономические теории и цели общества. Перевод с английского,

М.21. Надель С. 2005. Социальные факторы экономического роста. «МЭиМО», №5.22. Нуреев Р. 2000. Теории развития: новые модели экономического роста (вклад

человеческого капитала). «Вопросы экономики», №9.23. Пигу Е. 1985. Экономическая теория благосостояния. Перевод с английского. М.

Портер М. 2000. Конкуренция. Перевод с английского. Санкт-Петербург, Москва,Киев. «Вильямс».

24. Тинберген Я. 1980. Пересмотр международного порядка. Перевод с английского. М.,«Наука».

25. Тодаро М. 1997. Экономическое развитие. Перевод с английского. М., «Юнити».26. Фишер С., Сахаи Р. 1997. Стабилизация и рост в переходных экономиках: первые

уроки. «Вопросы экономики», №5.27. Шумпетер Й. 1982.Теория экономического развития. Перевод с немецкого. М.,

«Прогресс».28. Хайлбронер Р., Тароу Л. 1991. Экономика для всех. Перевод с английского. Лондон,

“Overseas Publications Interchange Ltd”.29. Эклунд К. 1991. Эффективная экономика. Шведская модель. Перевод с английского.

М.30. Эрхард Л. 1991. Благосостояние для всех. Перевод с английского. М.

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web resursebi:

www.statistics.gewww.economics.gewww.nbg.gov.gewww.mof.gehttp://www.mbg.ge/uploads/depositarycorporeshenqartulad/assets_liabilies_of_commer

cial_banks_totalgeo.xlshttp://www.nbg.gov.ge/nbg.new.geo/banking_system/concepthttp://www.cia.gov/library/publications/theworld_factbook/geashttp://www.chelt.ru/2001/12/uzbashianz-12.html

Rozeta AsatianiDoctor of Economic Science

Professor

GENESIS OF SOCIAL SECTOR OF ECONOMY AS SCIENCEExpanded Summary

The public sector of the economy was preceded by the objective prerequisites, which laid thefoundation for economic development of this relatively new field.This issue is not within thenarrow confines of a local issue; however, it is connected organically with other issues.Theeconomic progress and development theories, on the one hand, and, on the otherhand,progressive structural changes in the public production contributed to this process,including the technological sphere. As a result of transformation of capitalism, the turn into anew quality of economic system based on domination of private capitalistic property changedthe trajectory to world development. Social orientation was recognized as the general feature ofmarket system based on property pluralism, together with the realization of market principles,which in its turn, confirmed the correctness of Keynesian theory about the necessity of stateregulation of economy. The government has taken the market "mistakes" rectification, whichbecame the basis for the process of humanizing the world.Formation of socially oriented economy that is market economy was estimated as timerequirement, moreover, it became important tendency of development of the modernworld and was recognized as the garantee of formation of new order and civil society.Thiscircumstance promoted coming to the fore of moral values that left behind the requirementsconditioned by previously installed in the roots, social instincts and stood on top of them. Twotypes of society were formed – closed and open. Closed- totalitarian society in conditions ofwhich a person became a victim of a collective and open-human society that is prerequisite ofdevelopment of democratic values.In the last period strengthen of tendency of sociality in theworld adopted natural character. Social orientation made market economy politically viable.

Economy of social sector studies the ways of effective use of limited resourcesexisting in state sector with the aim of maximum satisfaction of social requirements and

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the problem of optimal choice.Rational use of these resources is highly dependent on theeconomic situation, in particular, whether it is socially oriented. So, as much as possible, inorder to satisfy the unlimited needs of the society special attention should be paid to the searchof the ways of effective use of limited resources and the problem of optimal choice.

Industrial era, that is linked to the strengthening and development, gave rise to thelong-term historical cycle, which was characterized by the priority of the private interests ofcapitalist economic system in comparison with the social interests owing to "invisible hand".During this period, the focus was on a single firm, the problem of its cost minimization andprofit maximization. It was the epoch of domination of individual conception of macro-economic paradigms and social well-being.Its ideology considered a person, as an economicphenomenon, as a mean of production and not as the aim of social production. Period of thepriority of private interests on the public interests was marked by increase of corruption andother anti-social events, including the deformation of social ethic. This epoch comprises theperiod from XVIII-XIX centuries till 50s of XX century.

Keynesian model of regulation of market economy was successfully used in developedcountries in terms of economic policy in the mid-70s. In this model the real embodiment isthe start of practical implementation of an idea of establishing a socially oriented marketeconomy in Germany and other developed countries. In USA exactly in this period a large-scale anti-poverty measures were undertaken, including such well-known in the field ofhealth care programs, as “medicare" is, the social assistance program for pensioners anddisabled people and “medicade”- the social program of protection of less provided layers.

Despite this, from the second part of 70s in the economy of Western countries toomuch state intervention has led to negative consequences of increased inflation, budgetdeficit and public debt rise, taxes increase, followed by a slowdown in economic growth. Itis true, that "renaissance" of the opposing views of the Keynesian model created favorableconditions for the revival of classical theory of the "state minimum" and general provisions ofneoclassical theory were reflected in the economic policy of developed countries. In this sense,the "neoclassical synthesis" played an important role.But the public sector has not lost its rolein the realization of the public interest, especially in the early 90s after the recentdevelopments.This is why the modern conditions are identified in the developed countries withspecial emphasis on important postulates of economic theory in the state and market relations.

The answer on the market economy triad - What? How? For who? can not be limited bythe sphere of private goods and service reproduction. To solve the fundamental problems is notenough just taking into account the interests of individual consumers expressed only by thedemand, it is necessary to defend public interests when the state has to perform the role of theconductor. The public sector based on the market's general theoretical principles, shouldregulate its activity in economy through the prism of the market and by taking intoconsideration the public interests.

The provision of the country's economic security is in the area of economic research ofthe public sector. The latter includes a wide variety of issues, the component of nationalsecurity and is its material basis. Economic security strategy pays particular attention to thedevelopment of criteria of economic safety and parameters that is the prerogative of the publicsector of the economy.16


As developed countries experience shows, the central place in the policy of stateexpenditures is occupied by the issues of provision of social stability. Together with financingof social programs that support the groups of less wealthy population, a certain part ofbudgetary funds is allocated for the state programs of development of social and cultural fields.Playing an active role in the social sphere a state gains the signs of socially oriented "welfarestate". The state apparatus looses conservative bureaucratic character by strengthening of themiddle class of the population, social responsibility of the private sector becomes stronger. Thenew problems arised by strengthening of civil society institutions and humanization processenriches the content of economy of the social sector. Payments as the cost of the servicesrendered by the state to the public, as the most important leverage of economic stimulation andregulation and the main source of budget income, puts into the forefront the questions of theoryof taxation in respect to interaction of economic efficiency and the state role in the functioningof the optimal taxation. From this aspect as well, the multi-faceted phenomenon of taxes is thesubject of research of economy of the social sector.

The global problem of the state budget deficit gives the great importance to the issue ofoptimal division of state expenditures. With respect thereto, the research of the issues of budgetfederalization becomes more actual that is one of the spheres of study of public economicsector.

In post-communist countries the problems of transition period to market economyexpands the area of research of public sector’s economy more and more.

For right conduct of the process of economic transformation in Georgia, a specialattention should be paid to the research of this field of economic science and to thepreparation of personnel by this specialty. Financial dilemma of today’s Georgia gives usthis task, and those acute macroeconomic problems, a partial solution of which even in thissituation is impossible. Optimal combination of market "invisible hand" and the state "visiblehand" is the necessary condition of effective socially oriented economy.

It is worth noting one very important fact: on the Third International Conferencededicated to public sector reform in St. Petersburg (still, June 2-3, 2000) was established theeconomy researchers Association (ASPE) of the public sector, the purpose of which is thestudy of economic problems of the public sector. It is informal association, which implementsits activity in the frames of Stockholm University and St. Petersburg State University jointproject and takes into account: organization of the annual international scientific conference,publication of scientific reports of association, preparation of workshops, organization oflectures of foreign specialists and so on. This proven practice, I think, should be taken intoconsideration in the reality of Georgia.

In such critical situation for Georgia it is necessary to develop the scientific paradigm,which will take into account social, collective and individual needs balance. Therefore, weneed not superficial evaluations, but deep analysis, which will be based on the fundamentalconcepts and will connect the causes and the results. This will allow us to distinguish theachieved and the desired, to get rid of illusions and additional losses. In this sense, the publicsector research and preparation of appropriate personnel will contribute to the case of country'sbuilding.

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regionuli ekonomikaREGIONAL ECONOMY

Вахтанг БурдулиДоктор экономических наук, заведующий отделом

Института экономики П. Гугушвили ТГУ им. И. Джавахишвили

ОЦЕНКА ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО СОСТОЯНИЯ РЕГИОНОВ ГРУЗИИ И ОБЩИЕНАПРАВЛЕНИЯ ЕГО УЛУЧШЕНИЯ

АннотацияПроведен статистический анализ экономического состояния Грузии, который

выявил отставание регионов Грузии по показателю ВРП на душу населения отпоказателей регионов России и Украины, а также – неравномерность уровняэкономической активности среди регионов Грузии, низкий уровень развитияпромышленности и некоторых других видов деятельности в ряде регионов Грузии.Выявлен также низкий уровень показателя добавленной стоимости в расчете наодного работающего в разрезе основных видов деятельности. Намечены основныенаправления улучшения экономической ситуации в регионах.

Ключевые слова: Валовой региональный продукт (ВРП) на душу населения, валоваядобавленная стоимость на одного работающего по видам деятельности, распределениеВРП по видам деятельности, пути улучшения экономической ситуации в регионах.

Введение

Ускорение экономического развития регионов Грузии представляет одну изважнейших стоящих перед экономикой страны задач. Решение этой задачи прави-тельством страны представляется одним из главных направлений экономическогоразвития из четырех основных направлений. В частности, по пояснению премьер-министра Гиоргия Квирикашвили «третий блок реформ подразумевает развитиерегионов, которое в указанном процессе должно быть одним из главнейшихкраеугольных основ» [Гиорги... 2016]. Для того, чтобы определить пути реформи-рования, т. е. пути совершенствования государственной, региональной и бизнес-координации экономического развития регионов, прежде всего необходимостатистическое исследование современного состояния экономики регионов свнутристрановым и межстрановым сопоставлением этого состояния по важнейшимэкономическим параметрам и выявление на этой основе основных направленийулучшения экономической ситуации в регионах.

18


Статистический анализ современного экономическогосостояния регионов Грузии

Также, как уровень экономического развития страны, в первую очередь,оценивается показателем валового внутреннего продукта (ВВП) приходящегося на душунаселения, уровень экономического развития регионов страны оценивается показателемсозданной в регионе валовой добавленной стоимости (ВДС) приходящейся на душунаселения региона, которая в практике многих научных и статистических исследованийназывается валовым региональным продуктом (ВРП). Если сравнить показательсозданного в Грузии на душу населения ВВП (в 2013 г. 3.52 тысяч долларов на душунаселения) с аналогичным показателем других стран, то обнаружим, что Грузия поэтому показателю относится к разряду довольно отсталых стран.

Проанализируем, каково положение в регионах Грузии. По таблице 1 можнопроизвести оценку и сопоставление в разрезе регионов объемов ВРП, а такжепоказателей рассчитанных на душу населения величин ВРП, а таблица 2 дает намвозможность сопоставления этих показателей с соответствующими показателями рядарегионов России и Украины (во второй таблице даны несколько регионов с высоким,средним и низким показателем ВРП на душу населения, а ранг (рейтинг) регионов всоответствующей стране указан в первом столбце этой таблицы).

В определенной степени наглядное представление об уровне развитиярегиональной экономики и степени ее диверсификации дает распределение созданной вкаждом регионе ВДС (или ВРП) в разрезе видов деятельности (таблица 3). Для оценкистепени экономического развития регионов также большое значение имеет выявлениедоли (вклада) каждого конкретного региона в созданную в разрезе конкретных видовдеятельности в целом по стране добавленную стоимость (таблица 4).

О степени экономического развития регионов косвенное представление такжедает показатель добавленной стоимости по каждому виду деятельности, рассчитанныйна одного работника (таблица 5). Для сопоставления соответствующих показателей поГрузии с показателями развитых стран в статье также представлены такие показатели(добавленная стоимость на одного работника) по ряду развитых стран в сельскомхозяйстве (таблица 6) и в обрабатывающей промышленности (таблица 7).

19


Таблица 1.

Распределение по регионам Грузии соданной добавочной стоимости и ВРП надушу населения 2013 г.2

Вте

кущ

ихце

нах

млн

лари

Впр

оцен

тах

кВ

ВПст

раны

вба

зисн

ых

цена

х

Числ

енно

сть

насе

лени

я(2014.01.01)

тыся

чче

лове

к

ВДС

(ВРП

)на

душ

уна

селе

ния

тысячлари

ВДС

(ВРП

)на

душ

уна

селе

ния

тыся

чдо

ллар

овСШ

А

Ранг

Тбилиси 11300.9 48.4 1175.2 9.62 5.66 1

Абхазская АР ... ... ... ... ... ...

Аджарская АР 1.790.1 7.7 396.6 4.53 2.67 3

Гурия 476.9 2.0 138.8 3.44 2.02 5

Имерети, Рача-Лечхумии Нижняя Сванети

2670.4 11.4 749.2 3.56 2.10 4

Кахети 1.331.5 5.7 405.0 3.29 1.93 8

Самегрело-ВерхняяСванети

1574.0 6.7 476.3 3.30 1.94 7

Самцхе-Джавахети 693.8 3.0 213.7 3.25 1.91 9

Нижняя Картли 2063.1 8.8 513.1 4.88 2.87 2

Внутренная Картли иМцхета-Мтианети

1426.4 6.1 422.4 3.38 1.99 6

ВВП в базисных ценах 23847.4 100.0 4490.5 5.20 3.06

(+) налог на продукцию 3659.5

(_) субсидии напродукцию

147.2

ВВП в рыночныхценах

26847.4 4490.5 5.98 3.52

2Таблица составлена по данным из следующих источников: [National Accounts... 2015: 81] и

[Численность... 2014] .

20


Таблица 2.

Список некоторых регионов (субъектов) Российской федерации и Украиныпо ВРП на душу населения3

Ранг Регион (Субъект) ВДС (ВРП) на душунаселения,

в долларах США4

Российская федерация (2013 год):5 Москва 29.27

28 Краснодарский край 9.13

43 Воронежская область 7.99

57 Владимирская область 6.57

71 Ставропольская область 5.19

76 Ивановская область 4.57

Украина (2012 год):1 Киев 12.19

2 Днепропетровская область 5.56

5 Полтавская область 4.81

12 Черкасская область 4.10

21 Житомирская область 2.45

27 Черновицкая область 1.82

Из таблицы 1 видно, что почти половина ВВП Грузии (48.4%) создана в Тбилиси(в то время, как численность его населения составляет приблизительно ¼ часть, точнее26% населения Грузии). Вместе с тем, показатель ВДС (ВРП) на душу населения по г.Тбилиси в 1.97 раз превосходит величину показателя стоящего на втором месте регионаНижняя Картли и в 2.96 раза – пребывающего на последнем месте региона Самцхе-Джавахети. Прежде всего отметим, что такая ситуация, когда значение этого показателяпо столичному региону сильно превышает значения показателей по другим регионам,характерно для многих других постсоветских стран, причем разница в величинахпоказателей ярче выражена. Например, показатель для Москвы (29.27 тысяч долларовСША на душу населения), которая по рейтингу занимает 5-е место в РФ (по этомупоказателю Москву опережают четыре субъекта, в которых в больших объемахпроисходит добыча нефти или газа), в 3.21 раза превосходит показатель Краснодарскогокрая (рейтинг 28) и в 6.40 раза – показатель стоящей по рейтингу на одном из последнихмест Ивановской области (рейтинг 76). На Украине показатель Киева (12.19 долларовСША на душу населения) в 2.19 раза превосходит показатель стоящей на втором местеДнепропетровской области и в 6.70 раза – показатель пребывающей на последнем местеЧерновицкой области.

3 Источник: [Валовой региональный...].4 Данные по России нами переведены из рублей в доллары США в соответствии с курсомсуществовавшим в последнем месяце 2013 года, данные по Украине переведены из гривен вдоллары США по курсу имевшему место в последнем месяце 2012 года.

21


Показатели ВДС (ВРП) на душу населения как по Тбилиси, так и по другимрегионам Грузии намного уступают показателям регионов России и Украины, чтосвидетельствует о значительной отсталости регионов Грузии. Так, например, показательпо Тбилиси (в который не входит составляющая по сельскому хозяйству, которая впостсоветских странах, в особенности в Грузии, ввиду нижерассмотренных обстоя-тельств, сильно снижает общий региональный показатель) в 2.15 раза меньше киевскогопоказателя и в 5.17 раз – московского.

Как было отмечено выше, показатель ВРП на душу населения по Тбилиси сильно,в 2-3 раза, превосходит показатели по остальным регионам. Вместе с тем, между самимиостальными регионами разница в величинах этого показателя незначительна (этимситуация в Грузии отличается от ситуации в России, где, помимо столицы, и междуостальными регионами наблюдается большая разница между величинами этихпоказателей). Например, показатель ВРП на душу населения стоящего на втором местерегиона Нижняя Картли (4.8 тысяч лари на душу населения) всего в 1.50 раз превышаетпоказатель стоящего на последнем месте региона Самцхе-Джавахети). Вместе с тем,показатели стоящих по рейтингу на втором и третьем (Аджарская АР – 4.53 тысяч ларина душу населения) местах регионов имеют определенный отрыв от стоящих напоследующих местах регионов, где показатель стоящего на четвертом месте регионаИмерети, Рача-Лечхуми и Нижняя Сванети (3.56 тысяч лари на душу населения) всего в1.10 раз превышает показатель находящегося на последнем месте региона Самцхе-Джавахети.

Сейчас попытаемся объяснить, почему величина показателя ВРП на душунаселения Тбилисского региона в 2-3 раза превышает величины показателей остальныхрегионов Грузии. Это, в первую очередь обусловлено тем, что в большинстве регионовменьшую долю имеют те виды экономической деятельности, которые создают большуюмассу добавленной стоимости (вместе с этим, в этих видах деятельности ВДС на одногоработника по сравнению с этим показателем в сельском хозяйстве несравненно выше),такие, как промышленность, торговля, финансовое посредничество, транспорт и связь.Например, в финансовом посредничестве у банков могут быть филиалы в регионах, нобольшинство операций производится в Тбилиси (или в другом городе, где расположенцетральный офис) и созданная в процессе этой деятельности добавленная стоимость восновном учитывается в Тбилиси. Добавленная стоимость, созданная в процессеоптовой и розничной торговли сельскохозяйственными продуктами и сырьем, побольшей части, учитывается в Тбилиси и других крупных городах. Также в Тбилиси и внекоторых других городах расположены крупные торговые организации, которыесоздают добавленную стоимость в процессе импортных и экспортных операций. Что жекасается промышленности, то большую долю в ВРП и ВДС промышленности страныэтот вид деятельности имеет еще в трех регионах (см. таблицы 3 и 4). Кроме того вТбилиси нет сельского хозяйства. Сельское население Грузии составляет 46.3% от всегонаселения, вместе с тем, кроме Тбилиси, где его нет, во всех регионах процент сельскогонаселения очень высок, например, в Кахети – 77.2%, в Гурии – 73.5%, В Рача-Лечхуми иНижней Сванети -80.2%, в Имерети – 52.2%. На селе же большая часть добавленнойстоимости производится на основе сельскохозяйственной деятельности. Доля жедобавленной стоимости полученной от других видов деятельности на селе очень низка(за исключением переработки продукции домашними хозяйствами, ремонта техники и22


образования). При этом показатель ВДС на одного работника в сельском хозяйствеГрузии намного меньше по сравнению с показателями в других видах деятельности (см.таблицу 5). Все эти факторы обусловливают указанное отличие показателя ВРП на душунаселения города Тбилиси от показателей других регионов.

Теперь перейдем к анализу формирования ВРП регионов в разрезе видовэкономической деятельности (таблицы 3 и 4), причем с рассмотрением по каждому видудеятельности показателя ВДС в расчете на одного работающего (таблицы 5, 6 и 7).

Принятие во внимание последнего показателя имеет большое значение дляобеспечения в процессе реструктуризации и диверсификации экономики страны и еерегионов такого типа развития, в результате которого будет достигнутзначительный рост показателей ВВП и ВРП на душу населения и, таким образом,переход населения страны на качественно новый уровень благосостояния. Вместе стем знание этого показателя в разрезе видов деятельности дает возможностьпрогнозирования в процессе реструктуризации экономики направлений предполагаемогоперераспределения занятых, переквалификации (в результате соответствующегообучения), уменьшения безработицы.

Таблица 3.

Процентная структура созданной в регионах Грузии ВДС в разрезе видовэкономической деятельности5 2013 г.

Тби

лиси

Адж

арск

аяА

Р

Гури

я

Им

ерет

и,Ра

ча-Л

ечху

ми

иН

ижн.

Сва

н.

Ках

ети

Сам

егре

ло-В

ерхн

яяС

ване

ти

Сам

цхе-

Дж

авах

ети

Ниж

няя

Кар

тли

Вну

тр.К

артл

и и

Мцх

ета-

Мти

анет

и

Про

цент

ная

стру

ктур

аВ

ВП

стра

ны

Сельск. хоз.,охота, лесн. хоз. ирыболовство

0.0 7.4 28.3 14.4 29.1 20.5 29.9 17.4 18.5 9.4

Промышленность 10.3 8,5 5.4 10.8 12.2 10.0 3.6 40.5 23.4 14.5

Переработкапродукциидомашн.хозяйствами

1.0 3.5 6.9 5.1 6.3 4.9 5.8 3.7 4.6 2.8

Строительство 10.0 12.5 1.7 1.6 2.5 4.1 7.3 1.9 4.5 6.7

Торговля; ремонтавтомобилей,жил.-быт. изделийи предметовличногоиспользования

24.5 13.6 3.2 5.3 5.0 5.7 5.3 5.6 5.7 17.3

5 Таблица составлена на осове использования данных из источника: [National Accounts... 2015: 81-90, 25, 26]

23


Транспорт и связь 18.5 6.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 14.4 0.9 0.9 3.1 10.5

Государственноеуправление

11.9 10.0 8.4 13.6 10.9 12.1 15.5 9.9 17.9 10.1

Образование 2.7 6.7 11.4 10.0 7.9 6.6 12.6 6,0 4.1 5.2

Здравоохранениеи соц.обеспечение

5.4 6.7 7.4 8.4 6.6 4.1 5.5 2.9 5.4 5.7

Прочие видыуслуг

15.7 24.4 26.4 29.9 18.5 17.4 13.4 10.5 12.8 17.8

ВДС (ВРП)% 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

ВДС (ВРП) вбазисных ценах,млн лари

1300.9 1798.1 476.9 2670,4 1331.5 1574.0 693.8 2063.1 1426.4 ВВП23335.0

Таблица 4.

Процентная структура созданной в Грузии по видам экономическойдеятельности ВДС в разрезе регионов6 2013 г.

Тбил

иси

Адж

арск

аяА

Р

Гури

я

Име

рети

,Рач

а-Л

ечху

ми и

Ниж

н.С

ван.

Ках

ети

Сам

егре

ло-В

ерхн

яяС

ване

ти

Сам

цхе-

Дж

авах

ети

Ниж

няя

Кар

тли

Вну

тр.К

артл

и и

Мцх

ета-

Мти

анет

и

Груз

ия в

цело

м

ВВ

Пмл

нла

ри

Сельск. хоз.,охота, лесн. хоз. ирыболовство

0.0 6.1 6.1 17.5 17.7 14.7 9.5 16.4 12.0 100.0 2195.0

Промышленность 41.3 4.5 0.8 8.6 4.8 4.6 0.8 24.7 9.9 100.0 3378.3

Переработкапродукциидомашн.хозяйствами

12.7 9.5 5.0 20.8 12.7 11.6 6.1 11.6 9.9 100.0 658.4

Строительство 66.4 14.3 0.5 2.7 2.2 4.1 3.3 2.5 4.1 100.0 1568.2

Торговля; ремонтавтомобилей,жил.-быт. изделийи предметовличногоиспользования

80.4 6.1 0.4 3.5 1.7 2.2 0.9 2.9 2.0 100.0 4026.8

Транспорт и связь 81.4 5.0 0.2 0.9 0.4 9.3 0.2 0.8 1.8 100.0 2451.2

Государственноеуправление

37.1 7.6 1.7 15.4 6.1 8.1 4.6 8.6 10.8 100.0 2365.4

Образование 22.3 10.0 4.5 22.2 8.7 8.7 7.3 11.4 4.9 100.0 1202.5

Здравоохранениеи соц.обеспечение

46.9 9.0 2.6 16.8 6.6 4.9 2.9 4.5 5.8 100.0 1338.5

6 Таблица составлена на осове использования данных из источника: [National Accounts... 2015: 81-90, 25, 26]24


Прочие видыуслуг

42.7 10.6 3.0 19.3 6.0 6.6 2.2 5.2 4.4 100.0 4150.3

ВВП страны 48.4 7.7 2.0 11.4 5.7 6.7 3.0 8.8 6.1 100.0 23335.0

Таким образом, переходим к рассмотрению формирования ВРП регионов вразрезе видов экономической деятельности.

Сельское хозяйство, охота, лесное хозяйство и рыболовство. Из таблицы 3видно, что в разрезе регионов в этом виде деятельности в процентах к ВРП большевсего добавленной стоимости создано в Самцхе-Джавахети (29.9%), в Кахети (29.6%)и Гурии (28.3%). Однако в ввиду значительного различия суммы ВРП в различныхрегионах, более четкое представление о вкладе каждого конкретного региона всозданную в масштабах страны совокупную добавленную стоимость в сельскомхозяйстве дает процентный показатель отношения созданной в конкретном регионе вэтом виде деятельности добавленной стоимости ко всей добавленной стоимостисозданной в этой отрасли в масштабах страны. Из таблицы 4 видно, что больше всегодобавленной стоимости в этом виде деятельности было создано в Кахети (17.7%) и вИмерети, Рача-Лечхуми и Нижней Сванети (17.5%). В Самегрело- Верхней Сванетибыло создано 14.7%, во Внутренней Картли и Мхета-Мтианети – 12.0% добавленнойстоимости.

В Грузии очень низок по сравнению как с другими видами деятельности постране, так и с сельским хозяйством развитых стран показатель произведенной всельском хозяйстве на одного работника ВДС – 1.0 тысяча лари на одного работника7

(или приблизительно 0.6 тысяч долларов США на одного работника). В Грузии этотпоказатель значительно ниже, чем в России (3 тысячи долларов США на одногоработника в 2010 году8), Беларуси (5.9 тысяч), Бразилии (4 тысячи) и крайне низокпо сравнению с показателями ВДС на одного работника в передовых в этой отраслистранах: Франция – 58 тысяч долларов на одного работника, США – 51 тысяча,Нидерланды – 49 тысяч, Канада – 45 тысяч, Италия – 31 тысяча, Великобритания – 20тысяч, Аргентина – 13 тысяч (таблица 6). В некоторых странах этот показатель посельскому хозяйству лишь немного ниже аналогичного показателя пообрабатывающей промышленности, который, например, во Франции был 70 тысячдолларов США на одного работающего.

Такой низкий уровень ВДС на одного работника в сельском хозяйстве Грузии вопределенной мере обусловлен наличием в нем большого количества нетоварноготипа мелких домашних хозяйств (занятые в котором в статистической отчетностипроходят как «самозанятые»), в которых производительность труда крайне низка, но вцелом он обусловлен отсталостью сельскохозяйственных технологий, отсталостьютехнического оснащения, низким качеством и нестандартностью сельскохозяйст-венного сырья поставляемого легкой промышленности (например, шерсти), впоследнее время сокращением поголовья скота, неиспользованием значительной частисельскохозяйственных угодий и т. д.

7 В постоянных ценах 2003 года.8 Все данные по этим странам приведены в постоянных ценах 2000 года.

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Промышленность9. В промышленности большая часть добавленной стоимости– 66% создается в двух регионах – Тбилисском и Нижней Картли. Созданная впромышленности Тбилисского региона ВДС составляет 10.3% его ВРП (таблица 3), ноэто представляет собой 41.3% созданной в промышленности Грузии ВДС (таблица 4).Очень высока доля созданной в промышленности добавленной стоимости в ВРПНижней Картли – 40.5% (таблица 3), что составляет 24.7% созданной в промыш-ленности Грузии ВДС (таблица 4). Это понятно, так как Тбилиси в настоящее времяявляется главным промышленным узлом Грузии, а в Нижней Картли расположенпромышленный город Рустави, а также – мощные ТЭС в Гардабанском районе,которые вносят достаточно большой вклад в созданную в промышленности ГрузииВДС. Еше в четырех регионах Грузии создается больше 10% ВРП: во ВнутреннейКартли и Мцхета-Мтианети -23.4% (9.9% созданной в промышленности Грузии ВДС)(в частости, здесь расположены несколько крупных предприятий промышленностистроительных материалов); в Имерети, Рача-Лечхуми и Нижней Сванети – 10.8%(8.6% созданной в промышленности Грузии ВДС); Кахети 12.2% (4.8%); и Самегрело-Верхней Сванети – 10.0% (4.8%). В этом последнем регионе несколько снизиласьроль г.Поти как промышленного узла по сравнению с 1990 г. Поэтому можно сделатьвывод, что в Грузии в настоящее время существуют два сравнительно крупныхпромышленных центра в городах Тбилиси и Рустави. Несколько снизилась рольгородов Кутаиси, Батуми и Поти как промышленных центров.

В промышленности Грузии величина показателя ВДС на одного работающегопо сравнению с другими странами довольно низка – 13.6 тысяч лари на одногоработающего (приблизительно 8 тысяч долларов США на одного работающего в 2013году в целом по промышленности). В обрабатывающей промышленности США этотпоказатель составлял 130 тысяч долларов на одного работающего, в Японии – 89тысяч долларов, в Германии 84 тысячи долларов (по другой оценке -90 тысячдолларов), в Китае – 22 тысячи долларов (2009 г.), в России 25 тысяч долларов(таблица 7).

Сравнительно низкий уровень показателя ВДС на одного работающего впромышленности Грузии обусловлен относительно низким уровнем большей частипромышленных технологий, очень малым количеством и редким появлением новыхвысокотехнологичных предприятий, трудностями экспортного сбыта некоторых видовконкурентоспособной продукции, отсутствием (точнее почти полным отсутствием)интеграционных производственных взаимосвязей с предприятиями обрабатывающейпромышленности других стран, недостаточной активностью в сфере развитиярегиональных промышленных узлов. Вместе с этим, в условиях происходящей в миремеждународной промышленной и торговой интеграции, мелкие и средниепредприятия (без участия в такой интеграции) не могут конкурировать попроизводительности труда с ТНК крупных стран. Поэтому, в перспективе, необходимо

9 К сожалению в статистической отчетности данные по промышленности регионов не представле-ны по отдельности по составлляющим ее секторам: горнодобываюшая промышленность, обраба -тывающая промышленность, производство и распределение электоэнергии, газа и воды. Длясправки отметим, что их доля в ВВП страны составляет, соответственно, 0.9, 10.6 и 3.0%, авнутри промышленности в целом их доля составляет 6.2, 73.1 и 20.7%.26


взять ориентацию на достижение в обрабатывающей промышленности такогопоказателя ВДС на одного работающего, который будут несколько выше показателяпо России. Однако основание таких предприятий, которые будут включены в меж-дународные технологические цепочки для создания определенной части добавленнойстоимости по выпуску какого-либо конечного продукта, сделает возможнымполучение в этих предприятиях очень высокой добавленной стоимости на одногоработающего.

Переработка продукции домашними хозйствами. В целом по Грузии на этотвид деятельности приходится не так уж большая доля выработанной добавленнойстоимости – всего лишь 2.8% ВВП. Большей частью в домашних хозяйствахпроисходит переработка пищевой сельскохозяйственной продукции (производствосыра, масла, вина, чурчхел, мацони и т. д.). В Тбилиси на этот вид деятельностиприходится только 1.0% ВРП, что составляет 12.7% всей созданной в этом видедеятельности ВДС. Конечно же, продукцию в этом виде деятельности производятпреимущественно на селе или же в малых муниципальных городах. Поэтому в ВРПостальных регионов доля в ВРП добавленной стоимости, созданной в процессепереработки продукции домашними хозяйствами значительно выше: в Гурии 6.9%(что составляет 5.0% созданной в целом по стране в этом виде деятельностидобавленной стоимости), в Имерети, Рача-Лечхуми и Нижней Сванети – 6.9% (20.8%от всей созданной в этом виде деятельности добавленной стоимости), в Кахети – 6.2%(12.7%) и т. д.

В статистической отчетности в этом виде деятельности ВДС на одногоработающего приведена вместе с сельским хозяйством, в строке «Сельское хозяйствои переработка продукции домашними хозяйствами; рыболовство» (см. таблицу 5).Поэтому нет возможности проанализировать производительность труда в этом видедеятельности. Однако на селе, вовлеченные в этот вид деятельности работникиодновременно занимаются и другой деятельностью, в основном, в сельском хозяйстве(в Тбилиси, конечно же, ситуация другая). Поэтому однозначно определениепроизводительности труда в виде деятельности «Переработка продукции домашнимихозяйствами» фактически невозможно.

Строительство. Большая часть созданной в строительстве ВДС – 65.4% при-ходится на тбилисский регион (таблица 4), что составляет 10.0% его ВРП (таблица 3).14.3% создано в Аджарской АР, что составляет 13.6% ее ВРП. Таким образом на всеостальные регионы приходится 19.3% созданной в строительстве ВДС. Самегрело-Верхней Сванети и Внутренней Картли-Мцхета-Мтианети создано в каждой по 4.1%созданной в строительстве ВДС, на остальные регионы приходится еще меньше.

ВДС на одного работника в этой отрасли (9.7 тысяч лари) больше, чем ВВП вбазисных ценах на одного работника, однако он меньше, чем в промышленности и внескольких других видах деятельности (см. таблицу 5).

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Таблица 5.

Валовая добавленная стоимость произведенная на одного работающего впостоянных ценах 2003 года (тысяч лари / в год) [National Accounts... 2015: 128]

2009 2013

Сельское хозяйство и переработка продукциисельского хозяйства домашними хозяйствами,рыболовство

1.0 1.0

Промышленность 11.1 13.6

Строительство 8.0 9.7

Торговля; ремонт автомобилей, жилищно-бытовыхизделий и предметов личного использования

5.1 6.3

Гостиницы и рестораны 13.4 13.7

Транспорт и связь 8.7 11.5

Финансовое посредничество 30.9 37.7

Операции недвижимостью, аренда и коммерческаядеятельность

7.2 10.9

Государственное управление, оборона 1.7 1.6

Образование 1.1 1.2

здравоохранение 2.3 2.6

Косвенная оценка услуг финансовых посредников 14.2 16.6

Другие виды услуг 3.0 3.2

Валовая добавленная стоимость на одногоработающего в базисных ценах

3.3 4.0

Налоги на продукцию минус субсидии на продукцию 0.2 0.2

Валовая добавленная стоимость на одногоработающего в рыночных ценах

3.5 4.2

Торговля; ремонт автомобилей, жилищно-бытовых изделий и предметовличного использования. Большая часть созданной в этом виде деятельности ВДСприходится на тбилисский регион – 60.4% (таблица 4), что составляет 24.5%созданной в нем ВРП (таблица 3). Еще 6.1% добавленной стоимости в этом видедеятельности создано в Аджарской АР, это составляет 13.6% ВРП этого региона. Востальных регионах доля созданной в этом виде деятельности добавленной стоимостив соответствующих ВРП еще меньше. Суммарная доля остальных регионов в ВДС вэтом виде деятельности составляет 14.5%. Вместе с тем, в этом виде деятельности встране создано 4036.8 млн лари добавленной стоимости (таблица 4), что составляет17.3% ВВП страны. В этом виде деятельности создается больше всего добавленнойстоимости среди всех видов деятельности. В стоящем на втором месте видедеятельности – промышленности создается 14.5% (в таблице 4 доля в «прочих видахуслуг» созданной добавленной стоимости (17.8% от ВВП) больше, но в этой строкесобраны данные по нескольким видам услуг). Выше уже пояснено, почему такаябольшая часть добавленной стоимости по этому виду деятельности приходится наТбилиси.

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В «торговле; ремонте автомобилей, жилищно-бытовых изделий и предметовличного использования» показатель произведенного на одного работающего ВДСсоставляет 6.3 тысяч лари. Это больше, чем показатель ВВП на одного работника постране (4.0 тысячи лари), который очень снижает составляющая по сельскомухозяйству, но ниже показателей по большинству других значительных видовдеятельности.

Транспорт и связь. В этом виде деятельности 81.4% ВДС приходится наТбилиси, что составляет 18.5% его ВРП. В Самегрело-Верхней Сванети создано 9.3%ВДС транспорта и связи (14.4% его ВРП). В Аджарской АР – 6.8% ВДС (5.0% ее ВРП).Во Внутренней Картли и Мцхета-Мтианети – 1.8% ВДС (3.1% ВРП). В остальныхрегионах доля созданной в этом виде деятельности добавленной стоимости составляетменее 1% соответствующих ВРП. К сожалению в соответствующем статистическомсборнике не представлены по отдельности данные по транспорту и по связи врегионах. В масштабах же всей страны в транспорте создано 1789.2 млн ларидрбавленной стоимости (7.7% ВВП страны), а в связи – 662 млн лари (2.8% ВВПстраны), т. е. доля транспорта среди этих двух видах деятельности составляет73.0%, асвязи – 27.0%. Большая доля города Тбилиси объясняется тем, что полученная отжелезнодоржных перевозок добавленная стоимость учитывается преимущественно втбилисском регионе, также как и перевозки в тбилисском аэропорту, на Тбилиси такжеприходится большая часть пассажирских перевозок внутри города. Доля сетейобщественного вещания и других сетей связи также высока в Тбилиси. Относительновысокая доля Аджарской АР и Самегрело-Верхней Сванети объясняется, в частноститем, что там расположены морские порты, где происходит перегрузка товаров сморских судов на другие виды транспорта и наоборот, а также к этим портамприписаны грузинские суда, которые осуществляют транспортировку товаров иперевозку пассажиров.

В «Транспорте и связи» ВДС на одного работника по сравнению с другимивидами деятельности достаточно высока – 11.5 тысяч лари. Однако есть резервы ееповышения, в частности за счет увеличения грузо- и пассажироперевозок.

Прочие виды услуг. К сожалению в региональной статистике раздельно непредставлены объемы ВДС созданной в ряде видов деятельности в сфере услуг. В этихвидах услуг в 2013 году в сумме создано 4150 млн лари добавленной стоимости, чтосоставляет 17.8% ВВП страны. Приведем список этих видов деятельности с указаниемпроцентной доли доли созданной в них ВДС в ВВП страны и в скобках – показателяпроизведенной в них ВДС на одного работника: гостиницы и рестораны – 2.3% (13.7тысяч лари на одного работника); финансовая деятельность – 3.0% (37.7 тысяч лари);операции с недвижимостью, аренда и оказание услуг потребителям – 5.6% (10.9 тысячлари10); условная рента по использованию собственного жилья – 3.4% (данных несуществует11); оказание коммунальных, социальных и персональных услуг – 4.6%(данных нет); деятельность по домашним услугам и деятельность домашних хозяйств,связанная с производством товаров и услуг для собственного потребления (данных

10 Операции с недвижимостью, аренда и коммерческая деятельность.11 Расчет показателя невозможен.

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нет); косвенная оценка услуг финансовых посредников – минус 1.9% (16.6 тысяч ларина одного работающего).

На вид деятельности «прочие виды услуг» приходится довольно высокая доляВРП всех регионов: в Тбилиси – 15.7% (42.7% от ВДС, созданной в этом видедеятельности); в Аджарской АР – 24.4% (10.6% ВДС), в Имерети, Рача-Лечхуми иНижней Сванети – 29.9% (19.3% ВДС). Этот показатель самый низкий в НижнейКартли – 10.5% (5.2% ВДС).

В различных регионах входящие в укрупненный сектор «Прочие виды услуг»виды деятельности имеют различную роль (неодинаковый вес) в формировании ВРПсоответствующих регионов. В Тбилиси, например, по сравнению с другимирегионами, очень высока роль «финансового посредничества». Также в Тбилиси и внекоторых других регионах более значительна роль таких видов деятельности в сфереуслуг, как «оказание коммунальных, социальных и персональных услуг», «гостиницыи рестораны», «операции с недвижимостью, аренда и оказание услуг потребителям». Вдвух последних видах деятельности довольно большая часть добавленной стоимостиформируется за счет туризма и поэтому в тех регионах, где туризм сильнее развит,доля добавленной стоимости сектора «прочие виды услуг» в соответствующих ВРПпредположительно должна быть выше, чес в других регионах (отдельно выделитьполученную от туризма добавленную стоимость трудно, т. к. она распределяется поразным видам деятельности сферы услуг, вместе с тем, не только включенных вукрупненный сектор «прочие виды услуг», но и в других видах деятельности,например, в «транспорте и связи»), поскольку в тех регионах, где туризм более развит(например, кроме Тбилиси, в Аджарской АР и Гурии), доля добавленной стоимостиэтого сектора более высока по сравнению с долями других регионов.

Таблица 6.

Валовая добавленная стоимость в сельском хозяйстве на одного работника вдолларах США в постоянных ценах 2000 года (тысяч долларов / на одного

работника) [Валовая...; Калабеков...12]1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Франция 22 27 38 44 58 (2009)

США 19 20 36 47 51

Финляндия 17 21 26 31 49

Нидерланды 24 29 34 39 49

Канада 29 34 40 46 45 (2009)

Италия 10 16 21 26 31

Великобритания 20 22 24 28 24

Республика Корея 5.8 6.7 10 13 20

Аргентина 7 8.5 9.8 10.8 13

Беларусь 2 2 2.2 4 5.9

Бразилия 1,9 2.1 2.2 2.5 4

12 Во втором источнике указаны первичные источники: World Bank и World Data Bank.30


Россия 2 (1993) 2 2 2.2 3

Грузия 0.6

Таблица 7

Валовая добавленная стоимость произведенная в обрабатываюжейпромышленности на одного работающего в долларах США (тысяч долларов / на

одного работающего)13

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012

США 74 (90) 100 (120) 130 (134) 135

Япония 53 85 80 81 (84) 89 107

Германия 38 (1992) 59 46 73 84 (90) 88

Франция 46 59 50 74 70 70

Китай 15 22 (2009)

Россия 4 (2001) 10 20 25

Грузия (попромышленности в целом)

8

Таким образом, из статистического анализа экономики регионов выяснилосьследующее:

1. Показатель ВРП на душу населения в Тбилиси значительно (в 2-3 раза) вышепоказателей остальных регионов.

2. Показатели ВРП на душу населения в Грузии во всех регионах Грузиизначительно меньше анологичных показателей по регионам России и Украины.

3. Из анализа распределения в разрезе регионов по видам экономическойдеятельности произведенной в Грузии добавленной стоимости (таблицы 3 и 4)выясняется: а) что большая часть добавленной стоимости созданной в таком важнейшемвиде деятельности как промышленность приходится на два региона Тбилиси и НижняяКартли (41.3% + 24.7%), что свидетельствует о более слабом развитии промышленностив остальных регионах Грузии по сравнению с этими регионами. В частности, снизилсяпотенциал расположенных в некоторых регионах промышленных узлов (Кутаиси, Поти,Батуми); б) в таких ключевых видах деятельности как «транспорт и связь», «торговля;ремонт автомобилей, жилищно-бытовых изделий и предметов личного потребления» и«строительство» большая часть добавленной стоимости (соответственно 81.4%, 80.4% и66.4%) создана в Тбилиси; в) большая часть созданной добавленной стоимости в«финансовой деятельности» (входит в приведенную в таблицах 3 и 4 строку «другиевиды услуг») приходится на Тбилиси (такая ситуация характерна и для России иУкраины, поскольку в столицах размещены центральные офисы самых значительныхкоммерческих банков, а расположенные в других регионах их филиалы добавленнуюстоимость создают в сравнительно небольших объемах). Доли же добавленной

13Таблица, кроме данных по Грузии, составлена на основе использования данных следующихисточников: : [Калабеков...], : [Показатели...].

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стоимости в соответствующих ВРП остальных, входящих в эту строку «другие видыуслуг» видов деятельности («гостиницы и рестораны», «операции с недвижимостью,аренда и оказание услуг потребителям», «оказание коммунальных, социальных иперсональных услуг») в определенной степени сопоставимы с их долями в тбилисскомрегионе.

4. Из анализа ВДС на одного работника в разрезе видов деятельностивыяснилось: а) что в Грузии показатели ВДС на одного работника по разным видамдеятельности очень различаются по величине. Крайне низок этот показатель в сельскомхозяйстве – 1.0 тысяча лари на одного работающего, наиболее высок в «финансовомпосредничестве» - 37.7 тысяч лари на одного работающего, высок также в «промыш-ленности» – 13.6 тысяч лари, в «гостиницах и ресторанах» - 13.3 тысяч лари и в«операциях с недвижимостью, аренде и коммерческой деятельности» - 10.9 тысяч ларина одного работающего. Поэтому у тех регионов, у которых в ВРП высок удельный весвидов деятельности с высокой ВДС на одного работающего, наблюдается и болеевысокий ВРП на душу населения, поскольку численность населения в каждом регионе втой или иной мере пропорциональня численности работающих. Т. е. в тех регионах, гдебольше работающих в видах деятельности с высокой ВДС на одного работающего,более высок и показатель ВРП на душу населения; б) ВДС на одного работника всельском хозяйстве Грузии крайне низок по сравнению с аналогичными показателямиразвитых стран, например он в 60 раз меньше, чем во Франции, в 20 раз меньше, чем вАргентине и в 10 раз меньше, чем в Беларуси. Также в Грузии по сравнению с другимистранами низок показатель ВДС на одного работающего в обрабатывающейпромышленности, например, он в 9 раз меньше, чем во Франции и в 3 раза меньше, чемв России.

Основные пути улучшения экономической ситуации в регионах

Сейчас остановимся на путях улучшения ситуации в регионах на основе развитиятех или иных параметров экономики.

1. Улучшение за счет создания новых предприятий и организаций. Впромышленности необходимо инициирование развития промышленных узлов (внекоторых региональных городах) с размещением в них оснащенных современнымитехнологиями предприятий. В Грузии, как в транзитной стране, можно применение такназываемого способа «индустриального транзита» [Юданов... 2001: 73] (например, вБатуми, Поти и Анаклии), в условиях которого в той или иной степени осуществляетсяпромышленная переработка части транзитных грузов, в основном в тех городах, гдепроисходит их перегрузка (например, с морских судов на грузовые автомобили инаоборот). В особенности необходимо создание высокотехнологичных предприятий,которых в настоящее время в Грузии очень мало, или на основе привлечения реальногоиностранного капитала, или на основе закупки местными предпринимателяминеобходимых технологий создания ими новых предприятий. В сельском хозяйстве засчет организации новых ферм и кооперативов необходимо освоение неиспользуемыхземельных площадей, а также увеличение площадей, занимаемых кормовыми культу-рами (например, кукурузой, клевером, люцерной) с целью увеличения производства

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мясомолочных продуктов, а также шерсти и кож (для использования в легкойпромышленности), поскольку недостаточность производства этих продуктов вноситочень негативный вклад в экспортно-импортное сальдо). В регионах также большеевнимание необходимо уделять проблеме улучшения эксплуатации земель, в том числепутем замены культивируемых на неэффективно используемых землях растений(арбузы, яблоки некачественных сортов) другими культурами. Из-за малоземелья вГрузии необходимо полностью запретить перевод земель селскохозяйственногоназначения в другие категории. В сельском хозяйстве также необходимо активизироватьусилия по укрупнению хозяйств, шире применять кооперативные формы организациихозяйств. Также в регионах должно продолжиться опережающее развитие некоторыхвидов деятельности сферы услуг (на основе создания соответствующих предприятий иорганизаций). Такая тенденция долгое время существовала в развитых странах, где напротяжении продолжительных периодов происходил переток определенной частирабочей силы из сельского хозяйства и промышленности (из-за высвобождения в нихчасти рабочей силы в результате быстрого роста в них производительности труда) вотрасли сферы услуг.

2. Улучшение за счет роста продуктивности (т. е., фактически, за счет ростаВДС на одного работающего). В промышленности рост продуктивности долженпроисходить за счет освоения новых технологий и модернизации существующих (вусловиях своевременной подготовки кадров для работы на этих технологиях). Ввысокотехнологичных отраслях, также, путем встраивания новых, построенных в странепредприятий в международные технологические цепочки, в которых они будутсоздавать определенную часть добавленной стоимости для производства определенногоконечного продукта (например, в Грузии начато строительство завода, который будетпроизводить детали и узлы из композитных материалов для разного типа самолетов.Такое предприятие, фактически, станет одним из звеньев международнойтехнологической цепочки по производству конечного продукта (самолетов), котороебудет поставлять соответствующие детали и узлы для расположенных в разныхстранах заводов, выпускающих конечный продукт – различного типа самолеты). Нонеобходимо создавать и такие корпорации, в которых в пределах страны будетрасположено большинство звеньев технологической цепочки по производству конечноговысокотехнологичного продукта (это возможно и в небольшой стране, например,«Нокия» – в Финляндии, металлургические заводы – в Люксембурге). В сельскомхозяйстве увеличение продуктивности возможно за счет повышения урожайности.Например, в настоящее время урожайность зерновых в нашей стране в 2-3 раза меньше,чем в странах с развитым сельским хозяйством. Для получения таких результатовнеобходимо овладеть соответствующими современными сельскохозяйственнымитехнологиями, а также, там, где это необходимо – проводить мероприятия порекультивации почв. Особое внимание необходимо обратить на эксплуатацию земель вгорных районах, с тем, чтобы не допустить их эррозии в процессе неправильногоиспользования. В транспорте рост продуктивности возможен за счет увеличенияперевозок грузов и пассажиров.

3. Улучшение за счет повышения качества продукции и ориентации насовременные стандарты. В промышленности в этом вопросе необходимы разные

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подходы по отношению к традиционным и высокотехнологичным отраслям. Изтрадиционных отраслей более всего запущено положение в легкой промышленности.Спрос населения почти полностью обеспечивается за счет импорта, объем которого в 6,9раз превосходит объем местного производства и в 11.7 раз объем экспорта [Бурдули...2015: 184]. Поэтому в большинстве регионов необходимо создание предприятий легкойпромышленности, в существующих предприятиях же необходимо значительноеулучшение качества продукции. В первую очередь, необходимо создание такихпредприятий по первичной обработке кож, которые обеспечат выпуск удовлетворяющихсовременным стандартам высококачественных кож для предприятий обувнойпромышленности (качество их обработки в настоящее время не укладывается ни в какиесовременные стандарты и поэтому произведенная в Грузии обувь в результате этогообстоятельства некачественная и сбыт продукции затруднен). Поэтому на обработаннуютаким образом кожу в промышленности спрос низок, в результате чего в сельскомхозяйстве и в легкой промышленности теряется возможность создания довольновесомого объема добавленной стоимости. Также в сельском хозяйстве Грузиинеобходимо сменить породу овец, т. к. шерсть современных овец не удовлетворяетсовременным стандартам (произведенный из нее текстиль недостаточно конкуренто-способен), поэтому спрос на эту шерсть низок. Параллельно с мероприятиями поулучшению качества кож, шерсти, необходимо в региональных городах созданиеоснащенных современными технологиями обувных и текстильных предприятий,швейных фабрик.

Сравнительно благоприятно положение в промышленности строительныхматериалов. Но для того, чтобы в этой отрасли объемы экспорта превзошли объемыимпорта, необходим определенный рост производства строительных материалов сориентацией характеристик производимой продукции на международные стандарты. Вовнутренней Картли, где сейчас расположены несколько крупных предприятий попроизводству строительных материалов, можно создать соответствующий промыш-ленный узел, с основанием еще нескольких оснащенных современными технологиямипредприятий этой отрасли. Концентрация в этом регионе большого количествапредприятий промышленности строительных материалов даст возможность создания вэтом регионе инновационного центра соответствующего профиля, достижения ещеболее высокого качества промышленной продукции, а также – центра по содействиюэкспортному сбыту этой продукции.

Для создания в промышленности современных высокотехнологичных пред-приятий (с высокой ВДС на одного работающего) необходимо привлечение предпри-ятий ТНК, а местные предприниматели должны закупать соответствующие современныевысокие технологии и обеспечивать встраивание в международные технологическиецепочки и системы экспортного сбыта.

Достаточно большая часть сельскохозяйственной продукции удовлетворяетмеждународным стандартам (определенная же часть экологически более чиста посравнению с аналогичной продукцией других стран). Но плодоовощное хозяйство впоследний период частично было запущено. Например, сократилось производство яблокценных сортов. Поэтому необходимо восстановить в полном объеме производствоплодов ценных сортов, те же площади, на которых в настоящее время производятсятакие фрукты, реализация которых затруднена даже на внутреннем рынке, должны быть34


использованы для производства другой продукции. Еще одна проблема на селе, какбыло сказано – это производство некондиционной шерсти овец, с трудностьюосуществляется даже реализация баранины, спрос же на овечью шерсть производимогосорта со стороны перерабатывающих предприятий текстильной промышленности оченьнизок (поскольку из нее невозможно производить в современных условиях кон-курентоспособные ткани).

4. Улучшение за счет современной организации производства. В промыш-ленности необходимо создаие ассоциаций промышленников в разрезе цепочекдобавленной стоимости по выпуску конечной продукции, которые на бизнес-уровнебудут согласовывать отраслевую промышленную политику. Можно, например, на этихуровнях создавать организации по содействию экспортному сбыту (совместнымоснованием таких организаций предпринимателями заинтересованных фирм). Необ-ходимо создать современную сеть трансфера технологий с компанией-лидером в центреи ее представителями в регионах. В организациях трансфера технологий необходимосуществование инжиниринговых подразделений, которые будут содействоватьпредпринимателям в выборе технологий и их закупке, оказывать помощь в процессе ихвнедрения. В сельском хозяйстве необходимо укрупнение предприятий, в частности и засчет организации кооперативов, необходимо создание ассоциаций сельскохозяйст-венных производителей с производителями перерабатывающими их продукцию вотраслях пищевой и легкой промышленностей.

5. Улучшение за счет организации в регионах технопарков (центровконкурентоспособности). В последние 10-15 лет во многих странах (например воФранции, Финляндии) создаются приносящие большой экономический эффекттехнопарки (центры конкурентоспособности), суть которых состоит в «группированиина определённой территории предприятий, учреждений высшего образования(государственных или частных), которые призваны работать вместе в целях внедренияпроектов экономического развития и инноваций» [Калугина... 2010]. Конечно нельзясразу во всех регионах Грузии создать такие образования за неимением достаточногоколичества квалифицированных работников и трудностей с финансированием, но вкрупных регионах к этому необходимо приступить, прежде всего на основе формированияэкономических механизмов финансирования и взаимодействия научных организаций ипроизводственников с целью разработки (или импорта) и внедрения инновационныхтехнологий.

Выводы

Таким образом изстатистического анализа выяснилось, что показатели ВРП надушу населения по регионам Грузии значительно меньше анологичных показателей порегионам РФ и Украины, что свидетельствует о недостаточной развитости экономикирегионов страны. В ряде ключевых видов деятельности (торговля, строительство,транспорт и связь, финансовое посредничество) значительно больше половиныдобавленной стоимости создается в Тбилиси, на все остальные регионы вместе взятыеприходится меньше 20-40% добавленной стоимости созданной в этих видах деятельностив целом по стране. 66% добавленной стоимости созданной в промышленности приходится

35


Гиорги Квирикашвили бизнес сектору – очень важно знать ваше мнение, куда мыдвижемся (на грузинском языке). 18-01-2016. Электронный ресурс:http://www.interpressnews.ge/ge/politika/362372-giorgi-kvirikashvili-biznesseqtors-dzalian-mnishvnelovania-vicodeth-thqveni-azri-saith-mivdivarth-chven.html

на два региона – Тбилиси и Нижнюю Картли, что свидетельствует об определенной потерезначимости промышленных узлов, расположенных в некоторых других регионах. Посравнению с развитыми странами в Грузии низок и показатель ВДС на одного работникакак в промышленности, так и, в особенности, в сельском хозяйстве. Для улучшенияэкономической ситуации в регионах Грузии в статье предлагается ряд следующихмероприятий: создание новых предприятий и организаций; обеспечение ростапродуктивности ( т. е. роста ВДС на одного работающего); повышение качества продук-ции и ориентация на современные стандарты; формирование современных схеморганизации производства; организация технопарков (центров конкурентоспособности).Для обеспечения реализации этих мероприятий требуется дальнейшее реформирование(совершенствование) механизмов государственной, региональной и бизнес-координацииэкономического развития регионов.

Использованная литература

1. National Accounts of Georgia 2013 (Statistical Publication). Tbilisi: National StatisticOffice of Georgia, 2015.

2. Бурдули Вахтанг. 2015. Проблемы повышения уровня самодостаточностиэкономики Грузии (структурно-отраслевой аспект). – Центральная Азия и Кавказ(Журнал социально-политических исследований). Том 18. Выпуск 3-4. CACCPressШВЕЦИЯ.

3.

4. Валовая добавленная стоимость в сельском хозяйстве на одного работника (Изкниги «Российские реформы в цифрах и фактах»). – Электронный ресурс:http://refru.ru/cost48.pdf

5. Валовая добавленная стоимость на одного работающего в обрабатывающейпромышленности. – Электронный ресурс: kaig.ru/rf/vdsobr.pdf

6. Валовой региональный продукт _ Википедия. Электронный ресурс:https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%92%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9_%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B3%D0%B8%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9_%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B4%D1%83%D0%BA%D1%82 (Список регионов России по ВРП на душу населения иСписок регионов Украины по ВРП на душу населения).

7. Калабеков И. Г. Российские реформы в цифрах и фактах. Электронный ресурс:http://refru.ru

8. Калугина Е. Ю. 2010. Промышленная политика Франции. В книге: Промышленнаяполитика европейских стран (Институт Европы РАН). М.,– Электронный ресурс:ieras.ru/doclad/259/259-1%20(1).doc

9. Показатели эффективности экономики и управления (Из книги «Российскиереформы в цифрах и фактах»). – Электронный ресурс: Refru.ru/management.pdf

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10. Численность населения Грузии по состоянию на 1 января 2014 года (на грузинскомязыке). 30.04.2014. – Электронный ресурс:http://geostat.ge/index.php?action=wnews&lang=geo&npid=300

11. Юданов Ю. 2001. Европейские корпорации в условиях глобализации. – МЭиМО,№ 11.

Vakhtang BurduliDoctor of economic Sciences, head of Department of

P. Gugushvili Institute of Economics of I. Javakhishvili TSU

ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC STATE OF THE REGIONS OF GEORGIA ANDGENERAL DIRECTIONS OF ITS IMPROVEMENT

Expanded Summary

Acceleration economic development of the regions of Georgia is one of the mostimportant tasks facing the economy of the country. For the government the solution of thisproblem seems to be one of the main four directions of economic development. In particular, asexplains Prime Minister Giorgi Kvirikashvili "third block reform implies the development ofthe regions, which in this process should be one of the main cornerstones." In order to identifythe ways of reform, that is, ways to improve national, regional and business coordination ofeconomic development of regions, you must first statistical study the current state of theregional economy making the in-country and cross-country comparisons of this state withthe major economic parameters and on this basis identify the main trends improving theeconomic situation in the regions.

Just as the level of economic development of the country in the first place is estimatedby gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, the level of economic development of regions isestimated by gross value added (GVA) per capita set up in the region's, which in practice ofmany scientific and statistical studies is called the gross regional product (GRP). If we comparethe index of GDP per capita created in Georgia (in 2013, 3.52 thousand dollars per capita)with that of other countries, we find that Georgia belongs to the category of rather backwardcountries by this indicator.

Let us analyze what is the situation in the regions of Georgia.The statistical data shows that nearly half of Georgia's GDP (48.4%) is created in Tbilisi

(whereas its population is approximately ¼, more precisely 26% of Georgia's population). Atthe same time, the rate of GVA (GRP) per capita in Tbilisi exceeds 1.97 times the value of theindicator of Lower Kartli region being on the second place and 2.96 times - Samtskhe-Javakheti region being on the last place. First, we note that such a situation, when the value ofthis indicator in the metropolitan region greatly exceeds the values of the indicators in otherregions, is typical of many other post-soviet countries, and the difference in values are morepronounced. For example, the figure for Moscow (29.27 million US dollars per capita), which

37


is rated at a 5 th place in the Russian Federation (on this indicator Moscow is outstripped byfour subjects in which large volumes of oil or gas are extracting), at 3.21 times - the index ofthe Krasnodar Territory (rating 28) and 6.40 times – that of the Ivanovo region being on one ofthe last places (rating 76). In Ukraine, Kiev index (12.19 US dollars per capita) exceeds 2.19times that of Dnepropetrovsk region being on the second place and 6.70 times - Chernivitskiregion being on the last place.

Indicators of GVA (GRP) per capita, both in Tbilisi and other regions of Georgia arefar inferior to Russia and Ukraine regions, which shows a significant underdevelopment ofregions of Georgia. For example, Tbilisi index (which does not include component onagriculture, which in the post-soviet countries, particularly in Georgia, in view of the discussedbelow circumstances greatly reduces the overall regional indicator) is 2.15 times less than Kievand 5.17 times - Moscow index.

As mentioned, the rate of GDP per capita for the population of Tbilisi greatly in (2-3)times exceeds the figures for other regions. At the same time, among other regions thedifference in the values of this indicator is insignificant (this situation in Georgia differs fromthat of Russia, where, in addition to the capital, among other regions there is a big differencebetween the values of these parameters). For example, the rate of GDP per capita in the LowerKartli region being on the second place (4.8 thousand GEL per capita) exceeds only 1.50 timesthe figure of Samtskhe-Javakheti region being on the last place). However, the figures ofregions being by rating on the second and third (Adjara Autonomous Republic - 4.53 millionlari per capita) places have a certain detachment from regions being on the following placeswhere the figure in Imereti, Racha-Lechkhumi and Lower Svaneti region being on the fourthplace (3.56 thousand Lari per capita) exceeds only 1.10 times the figure of Samtskhe-Javakhetiregion being on the last place.

Now we shall try to explain why the value of the index of GRP per capita in Tbilisiregion is 2-3 times greater than the value of indicators of the rest of Georgia. This is primarilydue to the fact that in most regions, a smaller proportion has those economic activities thatcreate a large mass of value added (at the same time, in these activities GVA per employee ismuch higher in comparison with the index of agriculture) such as industry, trade, financialintermediation, transport and communications. For example, in financial intermediation, banksmay have branches in the regions, but most of the operations are carried out in Tbilisi (or inanother city, where Central office is located) and the value added created during this activity isfixed mainly in Tbilisi. The value added created in the wholesale and retail trade of agriculturalproducts and raw materials, for the most part, is fixed in Tbilisi and other major cities. InTbilisi and some other cities there are large commercial organizations as well, that create valueadded in the process of import and export operations. As for the industry, this kind of activityhas the largest share in the GRP and GVA of the country industry in other three regions, too.In addition there is no agriculture in Tbilisi. The rural population of Georgia is 46.3% of thetotal population, at the same time (except for Tbilisi), in all regions the percentage of the ruralpopulation is very high, for example, in Kakheti - 77.2%, in Guria - 73.5%, in Racha-Lechkhumi and Lower Svaneti -80.2%, Imereti - 52.2%. In rural areas, the majority of thevalue added is based on agriculture. The share of the value added obtained from other activitiesin rural areas is very low (except for processing of products by households, repairing oftechnology and education). The indicator of GVA per employee in Georgian agriculture is

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much less compared with other activities. All these factors contribute to this difference ofindicators of GRP per capita of Tbilisi population from that of other regions.

The article has also analyzed the formation of the region's GRP in the context ofeconomic activities, taking into consideration each activity indicator of GVA peremployee.

To some extent, a visual representation of the level of development of regional economyand its degree of diversification gives the distribution of the GVA (or GRP) established inevery region by types of activity. To assess the degree of economic development of regions itis also of great importance to identify the share (contribution) of each particular region in valueadded created in the context of specific activities in the country as a whole. The correspondinganalysis by regions was held in the following activities: agriculture; industry; recycling ofhousehold products; building; trade; transport and communications; financial activities; otherservices.

Indirect view on the degree of economic development of the regions is also given bythe index of value added for each activity, calculated per employee. For the comparison ofcorresponding figures for Georgia with those of developed countries, the article also includessuch indicators (value added per employee) in agriculture and in the manufacturing industry ina number of developed countries.

In general, from the statistical analysis of regional economies was found out thefollowing:

1. Indicator of GRP per capita in Tbilisi is significantly (2-3 times) higher than in otherregions.

2. Indicators of GDP per capita in all regions of Georgia is much less than in similarindicators for the regions of Russia and Ukraine.

3. The analysis of distribution of value added produced in Georgia according toeconomic activity of regions, proves: a) that most of the value added created in such animportant activity as the industry accounts for two regions of Tbilisi and Lower Kartli (41.3%+ 24.7%), indicating a weaker development of the industry in other regions of Georgia ascompared with these regions. In particular, the capacity of industrial centers located in someregions (Kutaisi, Poti, Batumi) has been reduced; b) in such key activities as "transport andcommunication", "trade; repair of motor vehicles, household goods and personal use items"and" construction" a large part of the value added (respectively 81.4%, 80.4% and 66.4%) hasbeen created in Tbilisi; c) most part of the value added in the "financial performance" falls onTbilisi (a situation is typical for Russia and Ukraine region, as in the capitals there are placedcentral offices of the most important commercial banks but their branches located in otherregions, are creating relatively small volumes of value added). Shares of the value added in thecorresponding GRP of other activities related to the service sector ("hotels and restaurants","real estate, renting and services to consumers", "provision of communal, social and personalservices") to a certain extent are comparable with their shares in Tbilisi region.

4. From the analysis of the GVA per employee in the context of the activities turned outthat: a) in Georgia indicators of GVA per employee for different types of activities are verydifferent in size. Extremely low is the figure in agriculture - 1.0 thousand GEL per worker,the most is in the "financial intermediation" - 37.7 thousand GEL per worker, it is also high inthe "industry" - 13.6 thousand GEL in "hotels and restaurants" - 13.3 thousand GEL and "realestate transactions, renting and business activities" - 10.9 thousand GEL per worker. Therefore,

39


the regions which have in GRP a high proportion of activities with high GVA per worker, thereis a higher GDP per capita, because the population of each region in one way or another isproportional to the number of employees. That is, in those regions where there are moreworkers in activities with high GVA per employee, the higher is the indicator of GDP percapita; b) GVA per employee in Georgian agriculture is very low compared with those indeveloped countries, for example, it is 60 times less than in France, 20 times less than inArgentina and 10 times less than in Belarus. In Georgia, compared with other countries there isalso low the rate of GVA per worker in the manufacturing industry, for example, it is 9 timesless than in France and 3 times less than in Russia.

Now we focus on ways to improve the situation in the regions through thedevelopment of various parameters of the economy.

1. Improvement through the creation of new enterprises and organizations. Theindustry needs to initiate the development of industrial sites (in some regional cities) with theplacement there of enterprises equipped with modern business technology. In Georgia, as atransit country, you can use the so-called method of "industrial transit" (for example, inBatumi, Poti and Anaklia), under which at a greater or lesser extent is realized industrialprocessing of the part of transit goods, mainly in the cities where their transfer takes place (forexample, from ships to trucks and vice versa). In particular, it is necessary to create high-techenterprises, which are very few now in Georgia either on the basis of real attraction of foreigncapital, or through the purchase of necessary technology by local entrepreneurs to create newbusinesses. In agriculture, due to the establishment of new farms and cooperatives must bedeveloped unused land areas, and increased the area occupied by forage crops, too (e.g. corn,clover, alfalfa) in order to increase the production of meat and dairy products, as well as wooland leather (to use in light industry), as far as insufficient output of these products makes avery negative contribution to the export-import balance). The region should pay more attentionto the problem of improving the exploitation of the land, including the replacement of plants(melons, apples, low-quality varieties) cultivated on inefficiently used lands by other cultures.Owing to the shortage of land in Georgia it is necessary to ban transfer of land for agriculturalpurposes in other categories. In agriculture it is also needed to intensify efforts forconsolidation of farms, widely use co-operative forms of organization of farms. In the regionshould also be continued to outpace the advanced development of certain service activities(through the creation of relevant enterprises and organizations). This tendency has been longexisted in the developed countries where for long periods a certain part of the labor force hadbeen drained from agriculture and industry (due to the release of the labor force as a result ofrapid growth of productivity there) to service industry.

2. Improvement due to productivity growth (that is, in fact, due to the growth ofGVA per employee). In industry, productivity growth should take place through thedevelopment of new technologies and modernization of existing ones (on terms of timelytraining to work on these technologies); In high-tech industries, as well, by incorporating newenterprises, built in the country in international technological chains in which they will create acertain part of the value added for the production of a specific final product (for example, inGeorgia, the construction of a plant has been started that will produce parts and assembliesfrom composite materials for different types of aircraft. This company, in fact, will become oneof the links in the international process chain for the production of the final product (aircraft),which will supply the corresponding parts and assemblies for the factories located in different40


countries producing the final product - various types of aircraft). But it is necessary to createsuch corporations, too, in which will be located the majority of units of the technological chainfor the production of high-tech final product within the country (this is possible even in a smallcountry, such as "Nokia" - in Finland, metallurgical plants - in Luxembourg). In agriculture,the increase in productivity is possible by improving productivity. For example, currently theyield of grain in our country is 2-3 times lower than in countries with developed agriculture. Toobtain these results it is necessary to master the relevant modern agricultural technologies, aswell as, where it is appropriate - to conduct activities for the remediation of soils. Particularattention should be paid to the land operation in mountainous areas in order to prevent theirerosion during misuse. In transport the productivity growth is possible by increasing thetransport of goods and passengers.

3. Improvement by increasing the production quality and orientation to modernstandards. In industry this problem requires different approaches with respect to the traditionaland high-tech industries. Among traditional industries more neglected is the situation in lightindustry. The demand of the population is almost entirely provided by imports, whose volume6.9 times exceeds the volume of local production and 11.7 times - the volume of exports.Therefore, in most regions it is necessary to create light industry enterprises and in existingplants it is necessary to improve significantly the quality of products. First of all, it is necessaryto create such enterprises for the primary processing of leather that will ensure the output ofhigh quality leather for shoe industry companies to meet modern standards (the quality of theirprocessing is currently not fit into any modern standards and, therefore, shoes produced inGeorgia as a result of the circumstances is of poor quality and marketing of products isdifficult). Therefore, the demand on such leather in the industry is low, as a result of whichagriculture and light industry lose the ability to create quite a meaningful volume of valueadded. In the agricultural sector of Georgia it is also necessary to change the breed of sheep, asfar as sheep wool today does not meet modern standards (textiles made from it is notcompetitive enough), so demand on this wool is low. In parallel with efforts to improve thequality of leather, fur, it is necessary to create in regional towns shoe and textile factories,garment factories supplied with modern technologies.

The relatively favorable position is in the building materials industry. But in order thatexports exceed imports, the industry requires a certain increase in the production of buildingmaterials with the orientation of characteristics of the products on international standards. Inthe Inner Kartli, where now there are several large-scale enterprises producing buildingmaterials, it is possible to create an appropriate industrial center, with a base of several moreenterprises of the industry equipped with modern technologies. The concentration in this regionof a large number of enterprises of building materials industry will enable the creation of theinnovation center of corresponding profile, the achievement of more industrial products ofhigher quality and the creation of the center to promote export sales of this product in theregion.

To create a modern high-tech industrial enterprises (with high GVA per employee) it isnecessary to attract companies of TNC, and local entrepreneurs need to purchase theappropriate modern high technology and ensure integration into international production chainsand export marketing system.

Great enough part of agricultural products meets international standards (a certain partis ecologically cleaner in comparison with similar products from other countries). But the fruit

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and vegetable farming in the last period was partially triggered. For example, the production ofapple varieties has been decreased. Therefore it is necessary to restore full production ofvaluable fruit varieties; the same areas, which are currently producing such fruits, therealization of which is difficult even in the domestic market should be used to output otherproducts. Another problem in rural areas, as has been said - is the production of balk gradewool of sheep, it is difficult even the realization of mutton, demand on the produced fleece isvery low on the part of processing enterprises of the textile industry (as it is impossible toproduce competitive fabric in current conditions).

4. Improvement owing to modern organization of production. In industry, it isnecessary to create an associations of industrialists in the context of the chains of value addedfor the production of final products which at the business level will coordinate sector industrialpolicy. For example, at these levels one can create organizations to facilitate export sales(jointly creating such organizations by entrepreneurs of interested firms). It is necessary tocreate a modern network of technology transfer with a leader company in the center and itsrepresentatives in the regions. The organizations of technology transfer require the existence ofengineering units, which will help entrepreneurs in the choice of technologies andprocurement, assist in the process of their implementation. In agriculture, it is necessary toconsolidate enterprises, in particular through the organization of cooperatives, too, createassociations of agricultural producers with manufacturers processing their products in the fieldsof food and light industries.

5. Improvement through the organization of technology parks in the regions(centers of competitiveness). In the last 10-15 years in many countries (e.g. France, Finland)industrial parks (competitiveness centers), are bringing great economic benefits, the essence ofwhich is "the grouping on a specific territory of enterprises, higher education institutions(public or private) that are designed to work together to implement economic developmentprojects and innovation". Of course you cannot create at once such units in all the regions ofGeorgia for lack of a sufficient number of qualified staff and difficulties with financing, but inlarge regions it is necessary to start it, first of all based on the formation of economicmechanisms of financing and cooperation of scientific organizations and manufacturers todevelop (or import) and introduce innovative technologies.

Further reform (improving) of the mechanisms of the state, regional and businesscoordination of economic development of regions is required to ensure the implementation ofthese measures.

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vaxtang burduliekonomikis mecnierebaTa doqtori, Tsu paata guguSvilis

ekonomikis institutis ganyofilebis gamge

saqarTvelos regionebis ekonomikuri mdgomareobis Sefaseba da

misi gaumjobesebis zogadi mimarTulebebi

vrceli reziume

saqarTvelos regionebis ekonomikuri ganviTarebis daCqareba qvey-

nis winaSe mdgar erT-erT umniSvnelovanes amocanas warmoadgens. am

amocanis gadawyveta mTavrobis mier erT-erT ZiriTad mimarTulebad

aris aRiarebuli ekonomikuri ganviTarebis oTxi mimarTulebidan. ker-

Zod, premier-ministris giorgi kvirikaSvilis ganmartebiT, “reformebis

mesame bloki regionebis ganviTarebas gulisxmobs, romelic aRniSnul

procesSi erT-erTi umTavresi qvakuTxedi unda iyos”. reformirebis, ese

igi regionebis ekonomikuri da socialuri ganviTarebis saxelmwifo,

regionuli da biznes-koordinaciis meqanizmebis srulyofis gzebis

gansazRvrisaTvis, upirveles yovlisa, saWiroa regionebis ekonomikis

Tanamedrove mdgomareobis statistikuri kvlevis Catareba ekonomikis

ganviTarebis donis qveynis Sida da qveynebsSorisi SedarebebiT umniSv-

nelovanesi ekonomikuri parametrebis mixedviT da amis safuZvelze

regionebSi ekonomikuri situaciis gaumjobesebis ZiriTadi mimarTu-

lebebis gamovlena.

iseve, rogorc qveynebis ekonomikuri ganviTarebis done fasdeba,

upirveles yovlisa, mosaxleobis erT sulze Seqmnili mTliani Sida

produqtis (mSp) maCvenebliT, qveynis regionebis ekonomikuri ganviTa-

rebis donec pirvel rigSi fasdeba regionSi erT sul mosaxleze

Seqmnili mTliani damatebuli Rirebulebis (mdR) maCvenebliT, romel-

sac mravali Sesabamisi samecniero da statistikuri klevis praqtikaSi

ewodeba mTliani regionuli produqti (mrp). Tu SevadarebT saqarTve-

loSi erT sul mosaxleze Seqmnil mSp maCvenebels sxva qveynebis ana-

logiur maCveneblebs, aRmoCndeba, rom saqarTvelo am maCveneblis mixed-

viT (2013 wels 3.52 aTasi dolari mosaxleobis erT sulze) sakmaod

CamorCenili qveynebis rigs miekuTvneba.

gavaanalizoT, rogoria mdgomareoba saqarTvelos regionebSi.

statistikuri monacemebidan Cans, rom mdR-is TiTqmis naxevari

(48.4%) Seqmnilia q. TbilisSi (amasTan, misi mosaxleobis ricxovnoba

Seadgens saqarTvelos mTeli mosaxleobis daaxloebiT 1/4 nawils _

ufro zustad, 26%). amasTan, q. Tbilisis mdR (mrp)-s mosaxleobis erT

sulze gaangariSebuli maCvenebeli 1,97-jer aRemateba meore adgilze

myof qvemo qarTlis maCvenebels da 2,96-jer am maCveneblis mixedviT

ukanasknel adgilze myof samcxe-javaxeTs. upirveles yovlisa aRvniS-

navT, rom aseTi situacia, roca dedaqalaqis am maCveneblis mniSvneloba

43


mkveTrad aRemateba sxva regionebis maCveneblebs, damaxasiaTebelia bev-

ri sxva postsabWouri qveynisaTvisac, amasTan, gansxvaveba regionebs

Soris ufro mkveTradaa gamokveTili. magaliTad, moskovis maCvenebeli

(29.27 aTasi dolari mosaxleobis erT sulze), romelsac reitingis

mixedviT me-5 adgili ukavia (am maCveneblis mixedviT moskovs uswrebs

oTxi subieqti, sadac didi odenobiT xdeba bunebrivi airis da navTobis

mopoveba), 3,21-jer ufro maRalia vidre krasnodaris mxaris maCvenebeli

(reitingi 28) da 6.40-jer ufro maRali, vidre erT-erT ukanasknel

adgilze myofi ivanovos olqis (reitingi 76) maCvenebeli. ukrainaSi q.

kievis maCvenebeli (12.19 aTasi aSS dolari mosaxleobis erT sulze)

2.19-jer aRemateba meore adgilze myof dnepropetrovskis olqis maCve-

nebels da 6.70-jer bolo adgilze myof Cernovcis olqis maCvenebels.

rogorc Tbilisis, aseve saqarTvelos sxva regionebis mrp (mdR)-s

mosaxleobis erT sulze gaangariSebuli maCveneblebi gacilebiT ufro

mcirea ruseTis da ukrainis regionebis maCveneblebze, rac metyvelebs

saqarTvelos regionebis mniSvnelovan CamorCenilobaze. ase magaliTad,

Tbilisis maCvenebeli (romelSic ar Sedis soflis meurneobis Semadge-

neli, romelic, postsabWour qveynebSi, da, gansakuTrebiT saqarTvelo-

Si, qvemoT gaSuqebuli mizezebis gamo, Zalian amcirebs saerTo regio-

nul maCveneblebs) 2.15-jer ufro mcirea vidre kievis maCvenebeli da 5.17-

jer ufro mcire, vidre moskovis.

rogorc zemoT iyo aRniSnuli, q. Tbilisis mrp (mdR) maCvenebeli

mkveTrad, TiTqmis 2-3-jer, aRemateba danarCeni regionebis am maCveneb-

lebs, amasTan, TviT danarCen regionebs Soris gansxvaveba am maCveneblis

mixedviT umniSvneloa (amiT situacia saqarTveloSi gansxvavdeba situa-

ciisagan ruseTSi, sadac, dadaqalaqis garda, sxva danarCen regionebs

Soris aseve arsebobs mkveTri gansxvaveba am maCveneblis sidideSi). maga-

liTad, meore adgilze myofi qvemo qarTlis maCvenebeli (4.8 aTasi lari

mosaxleobis erT sulze mxolod 1.50-jer aRemateba ukanasknel adgilze

myof samcxe-javaxeTis maCvenebels (3.25 aTasi lari mosaxleobis erT

sulze). amasTan, am maCveneblis mixedviT meore da mesame (aWara _ 4.53

aTasi lari mosaxleobis erT sulze) adgilebze myofi regionebis maCve-

neblebs gaaCnia garkveuli daSoreba Semdeg adgilebze myof maCveneb-

lebisagan, sadac meoTxe adgilze myofi imereTis, raWa-leCxumis da

qvemo svaneTis maCvenebeli (3.56 aTasi lari mosaxleobis erT sulze)

mxolod 1.10-jer aRemateba ukanasknel adgilze myof samcxe-javaxeTis

maCvenebels.

axla SevecdebiT avxsnaT, Tu ratom uswrebs Tbilisis regionis

mrp-s mosaxleobis erT sulze gaangariSebuli maCveneblis sidide 2-3-

jer saqarTvelos danarCeni regionebis maCveneblebis sidideebs. upirve-

les yovlisa, es imiT aixsneba, rom regionebSi ufro mcire wvlili mrp-

Si ukavia saqmianobis zogierT im saxeebs, romlebic qveynis masStabiT

qmnian damatebuli Rirebulebis did masas (amasTan, erT dasaqmebulze

Seqmnili mdR maTSi soflis meurneobis maCvenebelTan SedarebiT

44


maRalia), iseTebis, rogoricaa mrewveloba (gansakuTrebiT, gadamamuSave-

beli), vaWroba, safinanso Suamavloba, transporti da kavSirgabmuloba.

magaliTad, safinanso SuamavlobaSi bankebs SeiZleba hqondeT filia-

lebi regionebSi, magram, operaciebis umeteseba warmoebs TbilisSi (an

sxva qalaqSi, romelSic ganlagebulia centraluri ofisi) da am saqmia-

nobiT Seqmnili damatebuli Rirebuleba ZiriTadad aRiricxeba Tbi-

lisSi (aseTive praqtika miRebulia ruseTSic). damatebuli Rirebuleba,

Seqmnili soflis meurneobis produqtebis da nedleulis sabiTumo da

sacalo vaWrobis Sedegad, upirveles yovlisa, aRiricxeba TbilisSi da

sxva msxvil qalaqebSi. aseve, TbilisSi da zogierT sxva qalaqSi gan-

lagebulia iseTi msxvili savaWro organizaciebi, romlebic qmnian dama-

tebul Rirebulebas saeqsporto da saimporto operaciebis Sedegad. rac

Seexeba mrewvelobas, am dargs mniSvnelovani wvlili aqvs kidev sam

regionSi. garda amisa, TbilisSi ar arsebobs soflis meurneoba. amas-

Tan, soflis mosaxleobis wili Seadgens saqarTvelos mTeli mosax-

leobis 46,3%, amasTan, Tbilisis garda, sxva danarCen regionebSi gaci-

lebiT ufro mets, magaliTad, kaxeTSi _ 77.2%, guriaSi _ 73,5%, raWa-

leCxumis da qvemo svaneTis regionSi _ 80.2%, imereTSi _ 52,2%. soflad

damatebuli Rirebulebis umetesi wili iqmneba soflis meurneobaSi

saqmianobiT. saqmianobis sxva saxeebiT miRebuli wili ki soflad Za-

lian mcirea (produqciis gadamuSavebis Sinameurneobebis mier, teqnikis

remontisa da ganaTlebis gamonaklisiT). isic unda gaviTvaliswinoT,

rom soflis meurneobaSi erT dasaqmebulze warmoebuli (Seqmnili) mdR-

s maCvenebeli saqarTveloSi Zalian dabalia saqmianobis sxva saxeebis

maCveneblebTan SedarebiT. yvela es faqtori ganapirobebs Tbilisis mrp-

s mosaxleobis erT sulze Seqmnili maCveneblis sididis aRniSnul

gansxvavebas sxva regionebis maCveneblebis sidideebisagan.

statiaSi aseve gaanalizebulia ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeebis

WrilSi regionebis mrp formireba, amasTan, saqmianobis yoveli saxis

mixedviT erT dasaqmebulze Seqmnili damatebuli Rirebulebis

maCveneblis ganxilviT.

regionuli ekonomikis ganviTarebisa da misi diversifikaciis do-

neze garkveulwilad TvalnaTel warmodgenas gvaZlevs regionSi

Seqmnili damatebuli Rirebulebis (mrp-s) ganawileba saqmianobis saxee-

bis WrilSi. regionuli ganviTarebis xarisxis Sesafaseblad aseve didi

mniSvneloba aqvs saqmianobis konkretuli saxeebis WrilSi mTlianad

qveyanaSi Seqmnil damatebul RirebulebaSi konkretuli regionebis mier

Setanili wvlilis gamovlenas. amitom, ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeebis

WrilSi Cven gavaanalizeT regionebis mrp-s formirebisa da, aseve, qvey-

nis masStabebiT ekonomikuri saqmianobis yoveli saxis mixedviT Seqmnil

damatebul RirebulebaSi yoveli regionis mier Setanili wvlili.

regionuli ekonomikis ganviTarebis xarisxze arapirdapir war-

modgenas aseve gvaZlevs saqmianobis yoveli saxis mixedviT erT dasaqme-

bulze gaangariSebuli damatebuli Rirebulebis maCvenebeli. saqarTve-

45


los ekonomikis Sesabamisi maCveneblebis SedarebisaTvis ganviTarebuli

qveynebis maCveneblebTan statiaSi aseve warmodgenilia rigi ganviTare-

buli qveynis aseTi maCveneblebi (damatebuli Rirebuleba erT dasaqme-

bulze) soflis meurneobisa da damamuSavebeli mrewvelobisaTvis.

mTlianobaSi, regionebis ekonomikis statistikuri analizidan

gavarkvieT Semdegi:

1. mosaxleobis erT sulze gaangariSebuli mrp-s maCvenebeli Tbi-

lisis regionSi mniSvnelovnad ufro maRalia (2-3-jer), vidre saqar-

Tvelos danarCen regionebSi.

2. mosaxleobis erT sulze gaangariSebuli mrp-s maCvenebeli sa-

qarTvelos yvela regionSi mniSvnelovnad ufro mcirea, vidre ruseTis

da ukrainis regionebSi.

3. regionebis WrilSi ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeebis mixedviT

Seqmnili damatebuli Rirebulebis ganawilebis analizidan irkveva: a)

rom saqmianobis iseTmniSvnelovan saxeSi, rogoricaa mrewveloba,

Seqmnili damatebuli Rirebulebis umetesi nawili (41.3% + 24.7%) Seqm-

nilia or regionSi, Tbilissa da qvemo qarTlSi, rac metyvelebs sa-

qarTvelos danarCen regionebSi mrewvelobis ufro sust ganviTarebaze

am or regionTan SedarebiT. kerZod, daqveiTda zogierT regionSi gan-

lagebuli samrewvelo kvanZebis mniSvneloba (quTaisSi, foTSi, baTumSi);

b) saqmianobis iseT sakvanZo saxeebSi, rogoricaa “transporti da

kavSirgabmuloba”, “vaWroba; avtomobilebis, sayofacxovrebo nawarmisa

da piradi moxmarebis sagnebis remonti” da “mSenebloba” damatebuli

Rirebulebis umetesi nawili (Sesabamisad, 81.4%, 80.4% da 66.4%) Seqmni-

lia q. TbilisSi; g) statistikuri monacemebis mixedviT “momsaxurebis

sxva saxeebSi” Semavali saxeebidan “safinanso saqmianobaSi” Seqmnili

damatebuli Rirebulebis udidesi nawili Tavmoyrilia q. TbilisSi

(aseTi situacia damaxasiaTebulia ruseTisa da ukrainisaTvisac, rad-

ganac dedaqalaqebSi ganlagebulia yvelaze mniSvnelovani komerciuli

bankebis centraluri ofisebi, regionebSi ganlagebuli maTi filialebi

ki damatebul Rirebulebas qmnian SedarebiT mcire odenobiT). “mom-

saxurebis sxva saxeebSi” Semaval saqmianobis danarCen saxeebs “komuna-

luri, socialuri da personaluri momsaxurebis gaweva”, “sastumroebi

da restornebi” da “operaciebi uZravi qonebiT, ijara da momxmareb-

lebisaTvis momsaxurebis gaweva” mrp-Si Tbilisis regionTan SedarebiT

garkveulwilad Tanazomieri wili ukaviaT.

4. erT dasaqmebulze warmoebuli saqmianobis saxeebis mixedviT

mdR-s maCveneblis analizidan irkveva, rom: a) saqarTveloSi saqmianobis

sxvadasxva saxeSi erT dasaqmebulze warmoebuli mdR-s maCveneblebis

sidideebi erTmaneTisagan Zalian gansxvavdeba, ukiduresad mcirea is

soflis meurneobaSi _ 1.0 aTasi lari erT dasaqmebulze, yvelaze didia

“safinanso SuamavlobaSi” _ 37.7 aTasi lari erT dasaqmebulze, “mrewve-

lobaSi” _ 13.6 aTasi lari, “sastumroebi da restornebSi” _ 13.3 aTasi

lari da “operaciebi uZravi qonebiT, ijara, komerciul saqmianobaSi” _

46


10.9 aTasi lari erT dasaqmebulze. amitom, regionebs, romelTac mrp-Si

Seqmnili damatebuli Rirebulebis mixedviT didi xvedriTi wili

gaaCniaT saqmianobis saxeebs erT dasaqmebulze gaangariSebuli mdR-s

maRali maCvenebliT, aqvT ufro maRali mrp mosaxleobis erT sulze

maCveneblebi, radganac yovel regionSi mosaxleobis ricxovnoba ama Tu

im zomiT pirdapir proporciulia regionSi dasaqmebulTa ricxovno-

basTan. ese igi im regionebSi, sadac ufro metia dasaqmebulebis rao-

denoba saqmianobis saxeebSi maRali mdR erT dasaqmebulze maCvenebliT,

ufro maRalia mrp/mosaxleobis erT sulze maCvenebelic. b) mdR erT

dasaqmebulze saqarTvelos soflis meurneobaSi ukiduresad ufro mci-

rea ganviTarebuli qveynebis analogiur maCveneblebTan SedarebiT,

magaliTad, 60-jer naklebia, vidre safrangeTSi, 22-jer, vidre argen-

tinaSi da 10-jer, vidre belarusSi. aseve, saqarTveloSi ufro mcirea

sxva qveynebTan SedarebiT mdR erT dasaqmebulze damamuSavebel mrewve-

lobaSi, magaliTad, is 9-jer ufro mcirea, vidre safrangeTSi da 3-jer

ufro mcire, vidre ruseTSi.

axla gavCerdeT situaciis gaumjobesebis gzebze ekonomikis ama Tu

im parametrebis ganviTarebis safuZvelze.

1. gaumjobeseba axali sawarmoebis da organizaciebis Seqmnis

xarjze. mrewvelobaSi saWiroa samrewvelo kvanZebis ganviTarebis inici-

reba (zogierT regionul qalaqSi) maTSi Tanamedrove teqnologiebiT

aRWurvili samrewvelo sawarmoebis ganTavsebiT. saqarTveloSi, rogorc

satranzito qveyanaSi, SeiZleba aseve egreT wodebuli “industriuli

tranzitis” xerxis gamoyeneba (magaliTad, foTsa da baTumSi), rodesac

xorcieldeba satranzito tvirTebis nawilis ama Tu im zomiT samrewve-

lo gadamuSaveba ZiriTadad im qalaqebSi, sadac xdeba maTi gadatvirTva

(magaliTad, gemidan satvirTo avtomobilebze an piriqiT). gansakuT-

rebiT saWiroa maRalteqnologiuri sawarmoebis daarseba, romelTa

raodenoba amJamad saqarTveloSi Zalian mcirea an realuri ucxouri

kapitalis mozidvis xarjze, an adgilobrivi mewarmeebis mier saWiro

teqnologiebis Sesyidvis gziT Seqmnili sawarmoebis saerTaSoriso teq-

nologiur jaWvebSi CarTviT. soflis meurneobaSi saWiroa umoqmedo

sasoflo-sameurneo farTobebis aTviseba, aseve, sakvebi kulturebiT

(xorbali, simindi, samyura, ionja) dakavebuli farTobebis zrda xorcis

da rZis produqtebis, matylis, tyavis da a. S. warmoebis zrdis mizniT

(radganac am produqtebis adgilobrivi warmoebis ukmarisobas Zalze

negatiuri wvlili Seaqvs eqsport-importis saldoSi). regionebSi aseve

yuradReba unda mieqces miwis eqspluataciis gaumjobesebas, maT Soris,

zogierT, araefeqtianad gamoyenebul miwaze kultivirebadi mcenareebis

(sazamTro, uxarisxo jiSebis vaSli da a. S.) Secvlas sxva mcenareebiT.

saqarTvelos mciremiwianobis gamo saWiroa sasoflo-sameurneo daniSnu-

lebis miwebis sxva kategoriebSi gadayvanis sruli akrZalva.aseve

srulad unda aikrZalos sasoflo-sameurneo daniSnulebis miwebidan

realizaciis mizniT niadagis (humusis) moxsna (aseTi operaciebi 2000-ian

47


wlebSi gavrcelebuli iyo saqarTveloSi, amasTan, xSirad humusis

saeqsporto realizaciis mizniT). uaxloes piriodSi, aseve, regionebSi

unda gagrZeldes momsaxurebis sferoSi saqmianobis zogierTi saxis

winmswrebi ganviTareba (Sesabamisi sawarmoebisa da organizaciebis Seqm-

nis safuZvelze). aseTi tendencia arsebobda ganviTarebul qveynebSi,

sadac drois xangrZliv monakveTebSi xdeboda samuSao Zalis garkveu-

li nawilis gadadineba soflis meurnebisa da mrewvelobis zogierTi

dargidan (maTSi Sromis mwarmoeblurobis swrafi zrdis Sedegad

samuSao Zalis nawilis gamoTavisuflebis gamo).

2. gaumjobeseba produqtulobis zrdis xarjze (e. i., faqtobrivad,

mdR erT dasaqmebulze zrdis xarjze). mrewvelobaSi produqtulobis

zrda ZiriTadad unda xdebodes axali teqnologiebis aTvisebis xarjze

(am teqnologiebze muSaobisaTvis kadrebis Tavisdrouli momzadebiT).

maRalteqnologiur dargebSi ki, aseve, qveyanaSi aSenebuli sawarmoebis

CarTviT saerTaSoriso teqnologiur jaWvebSi, romlebSic es sawar-

moebi Seqmnian damatebuli Rirebulebis garkveul nawils gansazRvruli

saboloo produqtis gamosaSvebad (magaliTad, saqarTveloSi axla unda

daiwyos iseTi sawarmos mSenebloba, romelmac TviTmfrinavebisaTvis un-

da awarmoos kompozituri masalebisagan Seqmnili detalebi da kvanZebi.

aseTi sawarmo faqtobrivad iqneba saboloo produqtis (TviTmfrina-

vebis) Seqmnis teqnologiuri jaWvis erT-erTi rgoli, romelic Sesa-

bamis detalebs da kvanZebs miawodebs sxvadasxva qveyanaSi ganlagebul

qarxnebs, romlebic gamouSveben saboloo produqts _ sxvadasxva tipis

TviTmfrinavs), magram saWiroa iseTi korporaciebis Seqmnac, romlebSic

qveynis farglebSi iqneba ganlagebuli saboloo produqtis warmoebi-

saTvis saWiro teqnologiuri jaWvis rgolebis umetesi nawili (es

SesaZlebelia mcire qveyanaSic, magaliTad, “nokia” _ fineTSi, metalur-

giuli qarxnebi _ luqsemburgSi). soflis meurneobaSi produqtulobis

zrda SesaZlebelia mosavlianobis zrdis xarjze. magaliTad, amJamad,

qveyanaSi marcvleulis mosavlianoba orjer da ufro metad naklebia,

vidre qveynebSi ganviTarebuli soflis meurneobiT. ufro kargi Sedege-

bis misaRebad saWiroa Tanamedrove sasoflo-sameurneo teqnologiebis

gamoyeneba, aseve, iq, sadac aucilebelia miwebis rekultivaciis Ronis-

Ziebebis ganxorcieleba. gansakuTrebuli yuradReba unda mieqces miwebis

eqspluatacias mTian raionebSi. transportSi produqtulobis zrda

SesaZlebelia tvirTebis gadazidvisa da mgzavrebis gadayvanis moculo-

bis zrdis xarjze.

3. gaumjobeseba produqciis xarisxis amaRlebisa da Tanamedrove

standartebze orientaciis xarjze. mrewvelobaSi sxvadasxva midgomaa

saWiro tradiciul da maRalteqnologiur dargebTan mimarTebaSi. tra-

diciuli dargebidan yvelaze metad xelmiSvebulia msubuq mrewve-

lobaSi Semavali dargebi. mosaxleoba, TiTqmis mTlianad, importis

xarjze maragdeba, romlis moculoba msubuq mrewvelobaSi 6.9-jer aRe-

mateba adgilobriv warmoebas da 11.7-jer eqsports. amitom regionebis

48


umetesobaSi saWiroa msubuqi mrewvelobis sawarmoebis Seqmna, arsebu-

lebSi ki produqciis xarisxis mniSvnelovani gaumjobeseba. upirveles

yovlisa, saWiroa tyavis pirveladi damuSavebis iseTi sawarmoebis Seqm-

na, romlebic uzrunveyofen maRalxarisxiani tyavis gamoSvebas fexsacm-

lis mrewvelobisaTvis (maTi damuSavebis amJamindeli xarisxi ar akma-

yofilebs araviTar Tanamedrove standarts da, amitom, saqarTveloSi

warmoebuli fexsacmelic garkveulwilad amis gamo uxarisxoa). aseTnai-

rad damuSavebul tyavze moTxovna naklebia, ris gamoc soflis meur-

neobisa da msubuqi mrewvelobis sferoSi ikargeba sakmao odenobis

damatebuli Rirebulebis Seqmnis SesaZlebloba. aseve saWiroa saqar-

Tvelos soflis meurneobaSi cxvris jiSis Secvla, radganac, amJamad

arsebuli cxvris matyli ar aymayofilebs Tanamedrove standartebs da,

amitom, moTxovna am matylze sustia. paralelurad, regionul qalaqebSi

saWiroa saSualo zomis Tanamedrove teqnologiebiT aRWurvili fexsac-

mlis, safeiqro (saqsovi), maT Soris abreSumis saqsovi, da samkervalo

fabrikebis dafuZneba.

SedarebiT kargia mdgomareoba samSeneblo masalebis mrewvelo-

baSi. magram imisaTvis, rom am dargSi eqsportis moculobam gadaaWar-

bos importis moculobas, saWiroa samSeneblo masalebis warmoebis

zrda misi produqciis saerTaSoriso standartebze orientaciiT. Sida

qarTlSi, sadac amJamadac ganlagebulia samSeneblo masalebis ramde-

nime SedarebiT didi sawarmo, SeiZleba samSeneblo masalebis warmoebis

samrewvelo kvanZis Camoyalibeba kidev ramdenime, Tanamedrove teqnolo-

giebiT aRWurvili, axali sawarmoebis Camoyalibebis safuZvelze. am

regionSi samSeneblo masalebis mrewvelobis sawarmoebis sakmao didi

odenobiT koncentracia mogvcems amave regionSi Sesabamisi profilis

inovaciuri centris Seqmnis, saboloo produqciis kidev ufro maRali

xarisxis miRwevisa da, aseve, produqciis eqsportuli gasaRebis xel-

Semwyobi centris organizaciis SesaZleblobas.

mrewvelobaSi Tanamedrove maRalteqnologiuri sawarmoebis Camo-

sayalibeblad (mdR erT dasaqmebulze maRali maCvenebliT), rogorc

iTqva, saWiroa transerovnuli korporaciebis sawarmoebis mozidva,

adgilobrivi mewarmeebma ki unda Seisyidon Sesabamisi Tanamedrove maRa-

li sawarmoo teqnologiebi da uzrunvelyon saerTaSoriso teqnolo-

giur jaWvebsa da eqsportuli gasaRebis sistemebSi CarTva.

sasoflo-sameurneo produqciis sakmaod didi nawili akmayofi-

lebs saerTaSoriso standartebs (garkveuli nawili ki ekologiurad

ufro sufTaa sxva qveynebis anologiur produqciasTan SedarebiT). mag-

ram xil-bostneulis meurneoba ukanasknel periodSi nawilobriv xel-

miSvebuli iyo. magaliTad, Semcirda kargi jiSebis vaSlis warmoeba.

amitom saWiroa xilis Rirebuli jiSebis warmoebis sruli moculobiT

aRdgena, is farTobebi ki, sadac amJamad iwarmoeba iseTi xili, romlis

realizacia saSinao bazrebzec ki rTulia, gamoyenebuli unda iqnes

sxva sasoflo-sameurneo produqciis warmoebisaTvis. soflis meurneo-

49


bis kidev erTi problemaa arakondiciuri cxvris matylis warmoeba.

Znelad xorcieldeba cxvris xorcis realizaciac, matylis amJamindel

jiSze ki moTxovna araa gadamamuSavebeli sawarmoebis mxridan (rad-

ganac Tanamedrove pirobebSi SeuZlebelia misgan konkurentunariani

qsovilebis warmoeba).

4. gaumjobeseba warmoebis Tanamedrove organizaciis xarjze.

mrewvelobaSi saWiroa asociaciebis Seqmna mwarmoeblebis saboloo pro-

duqtebis mixedviT, romlebic biznesis doneze SeimuSaveben dargobriv

samrewvelo politikas. aseTi asociaciebis farglebSi SeiZleba, magali-

Tad, eqsportuli gasaRebis xelSemwyobi organizaciebis Seqmna (Sesa-

bamisi firmis ramdenime mewarmis mier erToblivi dafuZnebis saxiT).

saWiroa, erTi mxriv, msxvil da saSualo firmebs, da meore mxriv, mcire

firmebs (romlebic awarmoeben calkeul detalebs lider-sawarmoebi-

saTvis) Soris sawarmoo TanamSromlobis praqtikis SemoReba (aseTi

praqtika gavrcelebulia aSS-Si, iaponiasa da mraval sxva qveyanaSi).

aseve saWiroa teqnologiebis transferis Tanamedrove qselis Seqmna,

lider kompaniiT centrSi da misi warmomadgenlebiT regionebSi. teqno-

logiebis transferis organizaciebSi saWiroa inJiniringuli ganyofi-

lebebis arseboba, romlebic mewarmeebs xels Seuwyoben SesyidvisaTvis

teqnologiebis arCevasa da SeZenaSi, daexmarebian teqnologiebis daner-

gvis procesebSi. soflis meurneobaSi, sadac aris amis aucilebloba,

saWiroa meurneobebis gamsxvileba, kerZod, kooperativebis organizaciis

xarjzec. saWiroa soflis meurneobis mwarmoeblebis (xorcis, rZis,

matylis, abreSumis parkis da a. S.) monawileobis uzrunvelyofa kvebisa

da msubuqi mrewvelobis mwarmoeblebis Sesabamis asociaciebSi.

5. gaumjobeseba regionebSi teqnoparkebis (konkurentunarianobis

centrebis) organizaciis xarjze. ukanasknel 10-15 weliwadSi bevr

qveyanaSi (magaliTad, safrangeTSi, fineTSi), iqmneba didi ekonomikuri

efeqtis momtani teqnoparkebi (konkurentunarianobis centrebi), romel-

Ta arsi Sedgeba “garkveul teritoriaze sawarmoebis, umaRlesi ganaT-

lebis dawesebulebebis (saxelmwifo an kerZo) dajgufebaSi ekonomikuri

proeqtebisa da inovaciebis erToblivi danergvis mizniT”. ra Tqma unda,

SeuZlebelia saqarTvelos yvela regionSi erTbaSad aseTi warmonaqm-

nebis Seqmna kvalificirebuli momuSaveebis sakmao odenobis uqonlo-

bisa da dafinansebasTan dakavSirebuli siZneleebis arsebobis gamo,

magram msxvil regionebSi saWiroa aseTi struqturebis organizaciis

dawyeba, upirveles yovlisa, inovaciuri teqnologiebis SemuSavebisa (an

importis) da danergvis mizniT dafinansebisa da samecniero organiza-

ciebis da mewarmeebis urTierTmoqmedebis meqanizmebis formirebis sa-

fuZvelze.

am RonisZiebebis realizaciis uzrunvelsayofad saWiroa regio-

nebis ekonomikuri ganviTarebis saxelmwofo, regionuli da biznes-

koordinaciis meqanizmebis Semdgomi reformireba (srulyofa).

50


momsaxurebis ekonomika

SERVICE ECONOMY

George BerulavaProfessor, Doctor of Science (Economics)

I. Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University,P. Gugushvili Institute of Economics

SERVICES SECTOR REFORMATION AND ENHANCEMENT OF EXPORTACTIVITY OF MANUFACTURING FIRMS: EVIDENCE FROM TRANSITION

ECONOMIES14

Summary.The objective of current paper is to explore the link between reforms in services sector andexport performance of manufacturing firms in transition economies. The results of the studyprovide a new understanding of the consequences of trade liberalization in services sector. Inparticular, positive impact of services sector efficiency on export performance ofmanufacturers is revealed. Along with services impact, we find that firm specificcharacteristics such as introduction of new products, investments in research anddevelopment, employment of advanced technologies, and employee skills are key drivers ofexport performance in manufacturing sector in transition economies. Firm’s size and foreigninvestments do matter as well. The results of this study provide information for policymakersand stakeholders that will facilitate elaboration of policy interventions aimed at improvementof export performance of manufacturers in transition economies.

JEL Classification: F10, F14, C33

Keywords: services inputs, transition economies, export performance, manufacturing industry,panel data analysis.

1. Introduction.Exporting is an important type of economic activity that many consider crucial to the growth ofproductivity, and living standards. The experience of the East Asian tigers provides evidencethat exporting is an important component of the growth strategy in emerging markets [TheWorld Bank, 1996]. Ensuring a favorable environment for exporting thus represents one of thekey challenges for transition economies on their path to economic development.

Discussions of factors that determine success of export performance have beenongoing for many years. Both the factors that are under the firm control and external factorshave been studied extensively in the academic literature. However, the role of services sectoras one of the external factors in promoting export performance of downstream sectorsremained relatively unstudied. The existing research of the consequences of services sectorliberalization is limited mainly to the analysis of the impact of services sectors on the on theproductivity in downstream industries [Arnold, Javorcik and Mattoo, 2011; Arnold, Mattoo and

14 Acknowledgements. I gratefully acknowledge the financial support from Economics Education andResearch Consortium (EERC), the World Bank and the Government of Austria.

51


Narciso, 2006; Esschenbach and Hoekman, 2006; Fernandes and Paunov, 2012]. In this paper15

we extend the existing research by emphasizing the relationship between the services sectorsand the export performance of downstream industries. In particular, the objective of the studyis to explore the impact of services inputs on export performance of manufacturing firms intransition economies. The results of the study are intended to improve our understanding of theconsequences of services sector policy, and thus they extend the existing theoreticalframework. However, the findings of the current research are important not only for theoreticalbut also for practical considerations. They provide grounds for the recognizing keydeterminants of manufacturers’ export performance in transition economies. In that way, theresearch contributes to the ongoing political debate on economic development issues andprovides insights for targeting of public policies.

The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 examines the relevantliterature on the link between liberalization in services sector and manufacturers’ exportperformance. Further, in this section, based on the literature review, the research hypothesis ofthe study is formulated. Section 3 presents a discussion of the research methodology, includingdescription of econometric model, variables and estimation techniques. In the fourth section thedata description is provided. The fifth section reviews the study results on the impact ofservices inputs on both the decision of manufacturers to participate at export markets and theirexport intensity. The final remarks are discussed in section 6.

2. Literature Review.This paper focuses on the role of the services sector in influencing export performance ofmanufactures in transition economies. The literature indicates that countries in transition canbenefit from increased exports. An increase in exports might boost productivity through“learning by exporting” of individual companies; or it may allow additional imports of hightech products. Either avenue would stimulate economic growth.

The relationship between exporting and firm’s productivity has been attractingattention of academicians for a long period of time. The literature emphasizes two alternativebut not mutually-exclusive views on the relationship between firm’s export activity andproductivity [Wagner, 2007; Bernard and Jensen, 1999; Bernard and Wagner, 1997].According to the first approach the more productive firms self-select themselves to exportmarkets. The other view holds that participation at export markets makes firms moreproductive through learning effect. Recent period a fast growing number of studies have foundevidence consistent with both alternative hypotheses on exporting-productivity relationship.Bernard and Jensen [Bernard and Jensen, 1995] in longitudinal study of productivitydifferences between US exporter and non-exporter firms find that exporters as compared tonon-exporters: were substantially larger; had higher levels of capital intensity and investmentper employee; were characterized by higher wage payments and showed higher laborproductivity. Bernard and Wagner [Bernard and Wagner, 2001] on the base of study of Germanfirms indicate that future entry at export markets is significantly and positively associated withhigher productivity. Similarly, Alvarez and Lopez [Alvarez and Lopez, 2005] using dataset offirms in Chile show that export participants have higher both labor productivity and total factorproductivity than non-exporters. Moreover, the authors conclude that firms make consciousefforts to enhance productivity before entering export markets. In support of self-selectionhypothesis, the positive and significant impact of labor productivity on exporting wasdiscovered also in number of other studies [Greenaway and Kneller, 2004; Greenaway and Yu,2004; Bernard and Jensen, 2004].

The strong support of learning-by-exporting hypothesis was found in Baldwin and Gu[Baldwin and Gu, 2004] study of Canadian manufacturing plants. The authors suggest that

15 The brief version of the study is presented in [Berulava, 2012].52


exporting had a positive influence on plant’s productivity growth through the followingmechanisms: learning by exporting; exposure to international competition; and increases inproduct specialization that allowed for exploitation of scale economies. The study shows thattrade liberalization had a significant impact on the strong export growth and that exporting isassociated with increased investments in R&D and training, and innovations. The fact thatlabor productivity improves after firms enter export markets was proved also in other studies[Clerides et al., 1998; Bernard and Wagner, 1997; Blalock and Gertler, 2004].

Though the productivity-export link has been studied very extensively in recent years,some aspects of this relationship remain relatively unexplored. For instance, the now largeheterogeneous firms’ literature initiated by Melitz [Melitz, 2003] suggests that the moreproductive firms are the ones that export. Melitz assumes that there is a fixed cost in selling inexport markets and only the more productive firms will choose to export, while less productivefirms will decide to serve the domestic market. In this stream of research, high-productivity offirms that self-select into export markets is considered as an outcome of firm’s deliberatestrategy. However, the productivity of firms can be caused by factors external to the firm andwhich are not under its control. The recent empirical research of the relationship betweenexport activity and external factors influencing productivity is focused mainly on the study ofthe effects of business climate variables. For instance, Clarke [Clarke, 2005] in a study ofAfrican exporters finds that in addition to enterprise characteristics, policy-related variablesalso affect export performance. In particular, the author suggests that restrictive trade andcustoms regulations as well as poor customs administration can discourage manufacturingenterprises from exporting. Balchin and Edwards [Balchin and Edwards, 2008] find that thebusiness climate is closely associated with firm-level manufacturing export performance inAfrica. The empirical evidence on the effects of business climate and infrastructure onmanufacturers’ export supply capacity is also documented in [Dollar et al., 2006; Iwanow andKirkpatrick, 2008]. Similarly, liberalization of the services sectors can be considered as one ofthe external factors that positively influences costs and productivity of downstream firms’ andthus promotes their export activities. Services can be viewed as a factor of production alongwith labor, capital and other inputs. The enhancement of services inputs can reduce productioncosts, increase the marginal productivity of other inputs and raise output. The impact ofservices sector liberalization on the productivity in downstream sector is well documented inacademic literature [Arnold, Javorcik and Mattoo, 2011; Arnold, Mattoo and Narciso, 2006;Esschenbach and Hoekman, 2006; Fernandes and Paunov, 2012]. These studies indicate thatthe availability of high-quality and low cost services contributes to the reduction of costs andincrease of productivity of downstream manufacturing firms. Taking into account the fact thatservices sector efficiency is an important determinant of manufacturing firm productivity andproductivity is a crucial factor of exporting, one may hypothesize that services sectorliberalization through the improvement of productivity of the firms in downstream industriescan increase their exports. Again relying on Melitz [Melitz, 2003], services sector liberalizationcan positively influence not only the export intensity of manufacturers but also their decisionsto participate in export markets and the number of export markets that they serve. To saydistinctly, theory suggests that a more efficient services sector through increasing theproductivity of firms and reducing the fixed costs of exporting can boost the number of firms indownstream industries that “self-select” into export markets. Thus, services sectorliberalization, by increasing the efficiency, variety and quality of services markets, can thenincrease exports.

Though theory indicates that better services should increase exports (both intensivelyand extensively), the empirical links are not well studied. Further, those studies that do existare based on African or Latin American data, so there is a lack of literature based on transitioncountry data. In this research we try to fill this gap by examining the relationship betweenperformance of services sector and export performance of manufacturing firms in transition

53


it it it

economies. Based on the literature review, the main research hypothesis of the study can beformulated as follows: the enhancement of services sector positively and significantlyinfluences both the decision of manufacturers to participate in export markets (“extensivemargin”) and their export intensity in any market (“intensive margin”).

3. Research Methodology.This section discusses the following issues: formulation of econometric model, description ofmeasures and estimation issues.

Econometric model and variables. In order to estimate the impact of services inputson export performance of manufacturers we use the following panel data regression model forfirm i at time t:

EIit

with 'SI 'C (1)

where, ',and it

'

ai it

are vectors of parameters to be estimatedEI - export intensity, represented by the share of exports in total sales (exports/total sales).SI - vector of services input variables. In this study we use two groups of services inputvariables. The first group reflects performance of three services sectors – telecommunications,electricity, and finance. These variables are represented by subjective measures from theBEEPS dataset that are based on firm’s valuation on a scale from 1 to 5 as to how much of aconstraint they consider telecommunications, electricity and finance for their business. Thesecond group of variables are BRD16 indices of policy reforms [EBRD, 2009], which reflectthe overall liberalization of services sector. In particular, in this study we employ: EBRDoverall index of infrastructure reform, which reflects reforms in telecommunications, electricpower, railway transport, road transport, and water distribution sectors; and EBRD index ofbanking sector reform.C - set of control variables:

S - firms size (small-5-19 employees; medium-20-99 employees; large-more than 100employees).

Tech- employment of advanced technologies. This is a dummy variable, which showswhether the firm has a high-speed, broadband internet connection on its premises.

RD – dummy variable, which reflects whether the firm in the last three years investedin research and development.

Innov – dummy variable, which reflects whether the firm in the last three yearsintroduced new products or services.

FO – dummy variable for foreign ownership.Ind – industry type (food, textiles, garments, chemicals & rubber, non-metallic

mineral products, basic metals, fabricated metal products, machinery and equipment,electronics, other manufacturing);

ES - employee skills, measured by percent of employee with tertiary education.Comp – degree of competition, measured on the basis of firm’s subjective responses

on a scale from 1 to 5 as to how much pressure from domestic and foreign competitors, effectsfirm’s decision to develop a new product and reduce costs. This variable is constructed usingprincipal component factor analysis.

16 EBRD – European Bank for Reconstruction and Development54


i t

i t

RQ – regulatory quality. This is one of the six dimensions of the WorldwideGovernance Indicators17 which reflects the ability of the government to stimulate free trade andpromote private sector development.

CapLoc – dummy variable which reflects whether the firm is located in the capital;EU - European Union membership.

i t - is an error term, which consists from two error components: ai - the unobservable

individual (time-invariant) effect which may be correlated with the observed variables SIit

and C ; and - the remainder disturbance, which varies with individuals and time and canit

be thought of as the usual disturbance in the regression. ai

(0,a ) and i.i.d. (0, ) correspondingly.

and i t are assumed to be i.i.d.

In this model productivity doesn’t enter in the equation directly. We proxy the productivity byfirm-specific characteristics, like size, foreign ownership, employee skills and services inputsvariables.

Estimation. The econometric model discussed above is intended to estimate therespective impacts of services input (telecommunications, finance, and electricity) and specificfirm characteristics on export intensity of manufacturers. However, some issues can arise whileestimating the model. First, since the export intensity is truncated variable the sample selectionbias issue can arise while estimating the model. The second problem is related to potentialendogeneity of service input variables as well as some other independent variables.To deal with selection bias problems the two-stage estimation process is employed in this study[Heckman, 1979; Helpman et al., 2008; Shepotylo, 2009]. First, we formulate a model for theprobability of exporting. The specification for this relationship is of the following form:

D* V ' e ; D 1[D* 0] (2)it it it it it

where, i and t denote firm and time, respectively. The variable EI in equation (1) isit

observable only if dummy variable D =1. The vector of independent variables V , in probitit it

equation, is a superset of the vector of independent variables in equation (1). Along withservices input and control variables it includes a selection variable.

Based on results of previous studies, at this stage we employ the following selectionvariable: EF – export facilitation index constructed using principal component factor analysisfrom the Doing Business database18. The index consists of the following elements: number ofall documents required to export goods; time necessary to comply with all procedures requiredto export goods; cost associated with all the procedures required to exporting.Like in panel regression equation (1), the error term eit comprises two elements: i -

unobservable and time invariant individual effect, which may be correlated with V , and -it

unobserved disturbance. The error term is normally distributed with zero mean and varianceequal to ( 2 2 ) . Following Shepotylo [Shepotylo, 2009] we assume thatk

( 2 2 ) 1and estimate the equation using standard probit regression:k

17 http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.asp

18 www.doingbusiness.org55


it

it

w

Pr(D* 1|V ' ) (V ') (3)it it it

Based on these estimations we calculate the inverse Mills ratio "it"[Heckman, 1979]:'

it (Vit̂)(V '̂)

(4)

where, and Φ are the density and distribution function for a standard normal variable

correspondingly; ̂ -vector of estimated parameters; V '̂ - prediction of the probit equation.At the second stage, we correct for self-selection by incorporating a transformation of thepredicted individual probabilities or the inverse Mills ratio as an additional explanatoryvariable to regression equation (1). In particular, the export intensity equation (1) may bespecified as follows:

EI 'SI 'C * (5)it it it t it it

where, * - is error term corrected after including inverse Mills ratio in the equation.it

To address the problem of endogeneity of the services input variables, which are very likely tobe correlated with individual specific effect ( ai ), the export intensity equation is estimated byapplying Hausman-Taylor IV estimation procedure [Hausman and Taylor, 1981]. Formally, theHausman-Taylor model can be represented in its most general form as follows:

' ' ' '

where,'

yit x1it 1 x2it 2 w1it1 w2it2 ui it (6)

x1it'

–are time varying exogenous variables;

x2it – are time varying endogenous variables;'w1it'2it

– are time invariant exogenous variables;

– are time invariant endogenous variables;

ui – is unobserved individual specific effect;

it - the remainder error term.In our study, services inputs variables (SI) and innovation (Innov) are time varying endogenousvariables (x2it); industry type (Ind) and membership in European Union (EU) are time invariantexogenous variables (w1it); and all other variables are time varying exogenous variables (x1it).

This estimation procedure uses only the information within the model and employsboth the between and within variation of the strictly exogenous variables as instruments. More

specifically, the deviation from mean (x2it x 2i ) serves as an instrument for time varying

endogenous variables x2it; and the individual means of the strictly exogenous regressors x1i areused as instruments for the time invariant endogenous regressors w2 that are correlated with theindividual effects [Hausman and Taylor, 1981]. The advantage of Hausman-Taylor estimationapproach is that it addresses the limitations that would arise with alternative estimation modelssuch as fixed and random effects estimators. The major drawback of the fixed effects estimatoris that the coefficients of time-invariant explanatory variables are not identified. Thus in the56


current research it is not suited to estimate the effects of time constant variables, such asindustry, membership in EU. These variables while not central to the main research hypothesisof the study are nevertheless of some interest. Random-effects models on the other handassume that all independent variables are uncorrelated with the individual specific error ui ,which, if not correct, leads to inconsistent estimates. However, the main limitation ofHausman-Taylor estimation method is that it doesn’t solve the simultaneity problem, whichcan arise from the correlation of independent variables with the remainder disturbance term.To control for the robustness of the Hausman-Taylor estimation results with regard tosimultaneity and sample selection bias issues we employ several robustness checks in thisstudy.4. Data Description.The main source of the data for the research is the micro-level unbalanced panel data from theEnterprise Surveys database (Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey(BEEPS) Panel)19. The surveys were conducted by the European Bank for Reconstruction andDevelopment (EBRD) and the World Bank Group (the World Bank) in 2002, 2005, 2007, and2008/09 for firms in 29 countries in the European and Central Asian region. In all countrieswhere a reliable sample frame was available (except Albania), the sample was selected usingstratified random sampling. Three levels of stratification were used in all countries: industry,establishment size and region. The more detailed description of the sampling methodology canbe found in the Sampling Manual.20

The panel provides totally 29,386 observations. Since the objective of our study is theexport performance of manufacturing firms, we limit the sample only to manufacturing sector.This gives us the final sample size of 11,293 observations at the firm level, which correspondsto 10,263 firms. On average there are 1.1 years of data per firm available.

Table 1 shows descriptive statistics of the variables used in the study. According tothe data from this table, out of 11,293 observations 26.9 percent belong to exporting firms.This corresponds to 2,760 firms in the sample that participate at export markets. On averagethe share of export in total sales is 11.83 percent. Telecommunications sector represents thelowest, while finance sector creates the biggest obstacles for businesses. In the sample,according to EBRD assessments, more progress was achieved in banking sector reform ascompared to infrastructure reform.

Table 1. Descriptive statisticsIndicators Mean Std.Dev Number of

observationsExport Intensity 11.83 20.16 11,293Export Choice .269 .443 11,293Electricity as an obstacle 1.13 1.42 11,194Telecommunications as an obstacle .466 .827 5,289Finance as an obstacle 1.46 1.26 10,920EBRD index of infrastructure reform 2.62 .571 11,209EBRD index of banking sector reform 3.02 .608 11,209Innovation during last 3 years .529 .499 10,144R&D during last 3 years .338 .473 7,558Foreign ownership .113 .316 11,104High-speed internet connection .620 .485 5,359Percent of employees with university 21.7 23.5 9,894

19 https://www.enterprisesurveys.org/20 http://www.enterprisesurveys.org/Methodology/

57


degreeLocation in capital .092 .29 11,284Size (Large firm) .302 .459 11,293Size (Medium firm) .353 .477 11,293Size (Small firm) .343 .474 11,293

Fifty-two percent of firms introduced a new product or services and thirty-threepercent of firms invested in research and development during last three years. More than sixtypercent of companies have high-speed broadband internet connection and only 11.3 percent offirms are owned by foreigners. On average 21.7 percent of firm’s employees in the samplehave university degree. Less than 10 percent of companies are located in the capital. Thesample includes firms of all sizes. Generally, firms are equally distributed by size with littleadvantage of medium and small firms.

The comparison of exporting and non-exporting firms is presented in Table 2. Inconformity with international experience, on average the share of firms that innovate and useadvanced technologies are substantially higher among exporters as compared to non-exporters.Similarly, the share of firms that invest in R&D is almost twice higher among exporting firmsin our sample. Exporting firms are larger and have higher shares of foreign ownership.However, contrary to international evidence non-exporting firms have better skilled personnel.Location in capital doesn’t play important role in differentiation between exporting and non-exporting firms.

Table 2. Descriptive characteristics of exporters and non-exportersVariables Export status

Exporter Non-ExporterPercent Number of

observationsPercent Number of

observationsInnovation during last 3 years 61.3 3,031 49.4 7,113R&D during last 3 years 50 2,554 25.5 5,004Foreign ownership 20.5 2,978 7.9 8,126High-speed internet connection 81.4 1,542 54.2 3,817Percent of employees withuniversity degree

19.6 2,964 22.6 6,930

Location in capital 8.6 3,037 9.4 8,247Size (Large firm) 51 3,037 22.8 8,247Size (Medium firm) 34 3,037 35.8 8,247Size (Small firm) 15 3,037 41.4 8,247

5. Study Results.Selection equation. Five different specifications of the model (eq.1-4) are estimated. Each offive services input measures is entered into the model one by one. Table 3 reports theparameter estimates and goodness-of-fit indicators for probit regressions. All five modelsreflect a good fit with the data (Wald Chi-squares are significant at p < 0.01 or at p < 0.05levels; Likelihood ratio tests of rho = 0 are significant at one percent level). As it was expected,the selection variable – export facilitation (which reflects costs and time necessary to exportgoods) - has significant and negative impact on probability of exporting. This result providessupport to the stylized fact that restrictive trade regulation discourages manufacturers fromexporting.

58


Surprisingly, only two from five services input variables have a significant impact ondependent variable (at 5 percent level). Marginal improvement in the performance oftelecommunications sector and marginal increases in EBRD index of infrastructure reformsraise probability of positive exports correspondingly by 4.1 and 21.3 percent. Thus thehypothesis that efficient services inputs encourage manufacturers to participate at exportmarkets is supported only partially. The results of the probit regression suggest thatmembership in European Union and regulatory quality (with the exception of the fourthspecification) don’t have any significant effect on export participation.

Table 3. Probit selection equationVariables Coefficients

I II III IV VDependent Variable: Export ChoiceElectricity as anobstacle

-.0526(.0433)

- - - -

Telecommunications asan obstacle

- -.1562***(.0595)

- - -

Finance as an obstacle - - -.0334(.0374)

- -

EBRD index ofinfrastructure reform

- - - .8206***(.2113)

-

EBRD index ofbanking sector reform

- - - - .1152(.1655)

Innovation during last3 years

.2258**(.094)

.2525**(.1013)

.2049**(.0934)

.2258**(.0983)

.2031**(.0953)

R&D during last 3years

.4641***(.1247)

.5065***(.1377)

.4382***(.1230)

.4895***(.1312)

.4589***(.1287)

Technological level ofcompany (High-speedinternet connection)

.6634***(.1457)

.6742***(.1562)

.6638***(.1480)

.7965***(.1617)

.6687***(.1489)

Employee skills .0063***(.0022)

.0064***(.0023)

.006***(.0022)

.0053***(.0022)

.0066***(.0022)

Foreign ownership .8782***(.193)

.8933***(.2078)

.8796***(.1966)

.9249***(.2042)

.8814***(.1983)

Size (Small firm) -1.589***(.2946)

-1.653***(.3276)

-1.570***(.2970)

-1.842***(.3315)

-1.685***(.3166)

Size (Medium firm) -.5849***(.1453)

-.6074***(.1570)

-.5694***(.1450)

-.7106***(.1631)

-.6362***(.1554)

Location in Capital -1.246**(.5281)

-1.174**(.5439)

-1.313**(.5297)

-1.354**(.562)

-1.172**(.5507)

European Unioncountry

.0542(.1468)

.0375(.1541)

.0487(.1484)

- -

Competition .4489***(.0828)

.4704***(.0924)

.4385***(.083)

.4086**(.1846)

.4297***(.0816)

Export facilitation -1.655***(.053)

-.1788***(.0582)

-.1705***(.0538)

-.2412***(.0613)

-.181***(.057)

Regulatory quality .1043(.1016)

.1192(.1076)

.1038(.1017)

.5909***(.1608)

.0421(.1663)

Number of obsevations 2598 2579 2511 2507 2507

59


Wald chi-sq 35.78***(22)

30.9*(22)

34.39**(22)

36.88**(21)

34.4**(21)

Likelihood-ratio test ofrho=0

6.45*** 7.26*** 5.94*** 9.69*** 6.66***

Standard errors are in parentheses. *** — statistically significant at p < 0.01 level; ** —statistically significant at p < 0.05 level; * — statistically significant at p < 0.1 level.

All other coefficients are significant and have expected sign. Indeed, introduction of newproducts, investments in R&D, size, foreign ownership, employment of advanced technologies,percentage of employees having tertiary education have significant (at p < 0.05 level) andpositive effect on the propensity to export.

Export intensity equation. Table 4 presents results of the estimation of the impact ofservices input variables on the export intensity of manufacturers. Hausman-Taylor estimationprocedure employed at this stage allows controlling for endogeneity of services input variablescaused by their correlation with unobserved individual level heterogeneity. All the fiveequations have Wald chi-square significant at one percent level. The inverse Mills ratio issignificant at p < 0.01 level and positive, which reflects the significance of the first-stageselection equation. In conformity with the main research hypothesis electricity andtelecommunications sector have significant (p < 0.01) impact on export intensity ofmanufacturers. According to data from Table 4, the obstacles created by these two servicesectors for the business activities of individual manufacturers have negative impact on theirexport performance. The obstacles formed by finance sector also have negative impact onmanufacturer’s exporting. However, this impact is not statistically significant.

Similarly, the overall liberalization of service sector (EBRD index of infrastructurereform) and reforms in banking sector (EBRD index of banking sector reform) have significant(at 5 percent level) and positive effect on export performance of downstream firms. Thus deepreforms and liberalization in such service sectors as electric power supply, railways, roads,telecommunications and water supply as well as in banking sector substantially improvesexport activity of manufacturing firms. These findings, in general, provide support for the mainresearch hypothesis of the study that the enhancement of services sector positively andsignificantly influences export performance of downstream industries.

The effects of firm specific characteristics – innovations, research and development,employment of advance technologies, employee skills, size and foreign ownership - aregenerally significant (in most specifications at 5 percent level) and have expected signs.Introduction of new product and services, investment in research and development as well asemployment of advanced technologies (high-speed, broadband internet connection) increasecompetitiveness of the manufacturing firms at global markets and thus encourages exportintensity.

Firm size and foreign ownership also have positive and significant impact on theexpansion of export activities. Large firms have more advantages in accessing to finance,necessary for establishing distribution networks at global markets. Generally they have moreresources for investments necessary for attaining of competitive advantage globally. This isespecially true for transition economies. Foreign ownership, in turn, facilitates transfer ofadvanced managerial expertise, skills and technologies that makes firm more competitive atinternational markets. Employee skills variable is also expected to have a positive impact onexport performance. This variable measured as a percentage of employees with tertiaryeducation, is supposed to enhance firm’s productivity and thus to improve its competitivenessat export markets. The results in table 4 show that employee skills have positive effect onexport intensity; however, not like in selection equation this effect is not significant in allspecifications.

60


Among the environmental variables competition, regulatory quality and membershipin European Union are important predictors of export performance of manufacturers. Studyresults show that competition measured as a pressure on companies to develop a new productand reduce costs encourages export intensity of manufacturers (significant at p< 0.01).Regulatory quality has positive and significant at one percent level effect (non-significant inequations 4 and 5) on export intensity. Better business environment reduces costs of doingbusiness, improves competitiveness and thus makes it easier to expand business activities atexport markets.Table 4. Export intensity equationVariables Coefficients

I II III IV VDependent Variable: Export Intensity (EI)Electricity as anobstacle

-2.281***(.6238)

- - - -

Telecommunicationsas an obstacle

- -6.093***(.7216)

- - -

Finance as an obstacle - - -.1498(.5666)

- -

EBRD index ofinfrastructure reform

- - - 9.297**(3.885)

-

EBRD index ofbanking sector reform

- - - - 9.3904***(2. 837)

Innovation during last3 years

11.894***(1.563)

11.929***(1.472)

12.724***(1.575)

4.116***(1.069)

11.358***(1.513)

R&D during last 3years

5.878***(1.492)

5.348***(1.452)

2.817*(1.479)

2.281(1.434)

5.630***(1.608)

Technological level ofcompany (High-speedinternet connection)

8.989***(2.185)

7.674***(2.082)

6.053***(2.277)

7.823***(2.511)

5.737***(2.183)

Employee skills .0527**(.0265)

.048*(.0259)

.034*(.0267)

.014(.0274)

.0669**(.0303)

Foreign ownership 24.513***(2.205)

23.741***(2.127)

23.604***(2.300)

11.606***(2.035)

23.725***(2.310)

Size (Small firm) -44.511***(3.88)

-44.052***(3.747)

-43.043***(3.933)

-16.047***(3.626)

-45.776***(4.409)

Size (Medium firm) -16.066***(1.67)

-15.981***(1.665)

-16.370***(1.729)

-9.592***(1.724)

-17.406***(1.832)

Location in Capital -8.914**(3.856)

-2.335(3.439)

-9.131**(3.875)

11.451***(3.94)

-10.029**(4.012)

European Unioncountry

6.336***(1.518)

6.078***(1.561)

6.733***(1.607)

- -

Competition 10.851***(1.136)

10.689***(1.093)

9.902***(1.135)

4.173***(.4676)

9.457***(1.094)

Regulatory quality 4.556***(1.212)

5.235***(1.264)

4.520***(1.242)

-4.515(4.907)

-5.564(5.772)

Inverse Mills ratio 21.651***(3.525)

19.990***(3.235)

19.054***(3.598)

6.510**(2.844)

19.499***(3.619)

sigma_u 90.479 99.150 100.946 87.660 96.306sigma_i 13.732 13.355 13.804 13.731 13.892rho .9774 .9821 .9816 .9760 .9796

61


Number ofobsevations

2598 2598 2511 2507 2507

Wald chi-sq (df) 769.02***(22)

825.44***(22)

760.75***(22)

698.87***(21)

727.90***(21)


The non-significant coefficients of this variable in equations 4 and 5 can be explained by theircorrelations with respective EBRD indexes used in these specifications. The same is true forthe variable which reflects membership in European Union. Industry effect is controlled but notreported in Tables 3 and 4.

Robustness checks. The empirical strategy of this study involves two-stage Heckmanprocedure to deal with selection bias problem, and the Hausman-Taylor IV estimation methodto control potential endogeneity of services inputs variable. Thus, series of robustness checksof selection bias problem and endogeneity issue are performed in this study. We restrict ourrobustness checks to effects of services input variables on firm’s export intensity (see Table 5).

Table 5. Robustness checks of the link between services input variables and exportintensity (standard errors in brackets).

№ Services InputVariables

Estimation Methods

Base

lineH

ausm

an-T

aylo

rIV

estim

atio

n

Hau

sman

-Tay

lorI

Ves

timat

ion

with

diff

eren

tse

lect

ion

vari

able

(tim

ene

cess

ary

toco

mpl

yw

ithal

lpr

oced

ures

requ

ired

toex

port

good

s)

Hau

sman

-Tay

lorI

Ves

timat

ion

with

diff

eren

tse

lect

ion

vari

able

(cos

tass

ocia

ted

with

allt

hepr

oced

ures

requ

ired

toex

porti

ng)

Tobi

treg

ress

ion

with

coun

tryan

din

dust

ryfix

edef

fect

s

Hau

sman

-Tay

lorI

Ves

timat

ion

with

serv

ices

inpu

tva

riabl

esre

plac

edby

thei

rind

ustry

-cou

ntry

-yea

rav

erag

es

2-SL

SFi

xed

Effe

ctse

stim

atio

n

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 81 Electricity as an

obstacle-

2.28***(.6238)

-2.25***(.6051)

-2.27***(.6210)

-1.46***(.5373)

-3.04***(1.119)

-3.84**(1.654)

2 Telecommunications as an obstacle

-6.09***(.7216)

-6.02***(.7041)

-6.00***(.7076)

-2.32*(1.353)

-3.83***(1.365)

-31.67(26.362)

3 Finance as anobstacle

-.149(.5666)

-.255(.5629)

-.021(.5619)

-2.42**(1.110)

-4.328**(1.719)

-7.981*(4.220)

62


4 EBRD index ofinfrastructurereform

9.29**(3.885)

9.98**(3.915)

8.678**(3.841)

4.853**(2.162)

- -32.0***(12.188)

5 EBRD index ofbanking sectorreform

9.39***(2. 837)

11.97***(2.914)

9.54***(2.767)

9.97***(2.125)

- -23.1***(9.008)


First, we check whether the study results are sensitive to alternative exclusion restrictions inthe probit model. In particular, instead of employing a composite factor score of trade barrierswe use separate variable that influence fixed costs of exporting (time necessary to comply withall procedures required to export goods) and variable that impacts variable costs (costassociated with all the procedures required to exporting). Reported in the fourth and fifthcolumns of Table 5, the coefficients of the all five services input indicators, received after theestimation of the models with the application of the alternative exclusion restrictions, are verysimilar to the baseline estimates (the third column). Second, we employed Tobit regression todeal with sample selection bias, which is an alternative approach to the Heckman’s two-stagemethod. The results of Tobit estimation presented in the sixth column of Table 5, suggest thatthe study results are quite robust to this check. Third, following Dollar et al. (2006) we replacesubjective measures of services inputs by their country-industry-year averages. This allows tocopy with the endogeneity problem caused by reverse causality of this variables. The results ofHausman-Taylor estimation of average values of services input variables, showed in theseventh column of Table 5, generally are similar to baseline estimations. The only difference isthat the average value of finance indicator is statistically significant now. Therefore, we canconclude that our results are robust.

Finally, as a second robustness check against endogeneity of services input variables,we employ alternative to Hausman-Taylor approach: fixed effects panel IV estimator21. Theresults of these estimations are generally consistent with the results of baseline model (theeighth column of Table 5). However, there are some important differences from earlier results.In particular, the EBRD indexes are significant and negative in fixed-effects 2-SLS model,which contradicts to our expectations. Thus, there is weak support of the assertion that EBRDindexes estimates are robust. Also the financial institution’s variable found to be statisticallysignificant, while telecommunication indicator non-significant predictor of export intensity inthis specification.

6. ConclusionsIn this paper, we examine the impact of services sector inputs on the export performance ofdownstream industries in transition economies. To our best knowledge this is the first attemptto explore the empirical link between the efficiency of service industry and export activity ofmanufacturing sector for transition economies.

To measure services sector performance, the two kinds of indicators were employedin this paper. First one includes the subjective measures of individual manufacturers as to howmuch of an obstacle for their business they consider the performance of the following threeservice sectors: electricity, telecommunications and finance. Another type of variablesemployed in this study was EBRD policy reform indices [EBRD 2009] which reflect theoverall liberalization of services sector.

21 Following Iwanow and Kirkpatrick (2008) we use log of GDP per capita and log of population asinstruments for services input variables.

63


Generally, the key finding of the study is that improvement in the services sectors wouldenhance the export performance of manufacturers in transition economies. In particular, thestudy results suggest that reducing constraints and obstacles originating from inefficiencies inelectricity, telecommunication, infrastructure and banking will encourage export performanceof downstream industries. Thus, advancing liberalization reforms in telecommunications,electric power, railway transport, road transport, and water distribution sectors as well as inbanking sector will stimulate expansion of export activities of manufacturers. Our results alsosuggest that services reform impacts more strongly on the intensity of existing exporters than itdoes in encouraging new exporters or new export markets.This paper looks at firm specific factors that affect the export performance of manufacturers intransition economies as well. Consistent with the results in existing research, we find that firmspecific characteristics such as the introduction of new products, investment in research anddevelopment, employment of advanced technologies, and employee skills are key drivers ofexport performance in the manufacturing sectors of transition economies. Introduction of newproducts and services, investment in research and development as well as employment ofadvanced technologies (high-speed, broadband internet connection) increase thecompetitiveness of the manufacturing firms in global markets and thus improve exportperformance.

We find that the firm’s size and foreign investment do matter as well. These factorssignificantly and positively affect not only the decision to export, but also export intensity ofmanufacturers. Large firms have more advantages in accessing to finance, which is necessaryto establish distribution networks in foreign markets. Generally, they have more resources forthe investment necessary for attaining of competitive advantage globally. This is especiallytrue for transition economies. Foreign ownership, in turn, facilitates transfer of advancedmanagerial expertise, skills and technologies that makes the firm more competitive ininternational markets. We also find that other factors such as trade facilitation, regulatoryquality, the degree of competition, membership in European Union also positively affectexports.

The results of the study have several policy implications. The first insight is that anefficient service sector infrastructure represents a strategic and underexploited resource ofexport enhancement that can be influenced by policy makers. To stimulate export performanceof manufacturing industries policy makers must emphasize further reforms and liberalization oftheir services sectors. These reforms must be focused on providing adequate access to servicesfor downstream industries and thus on reducing their costs of doing business. Moreover,government should create favorable conditions for attracting foreign direct investments andencourage investments in innovation, research and development, employment of advancedtechnologies. A final policy point is that reducing trade related costs, through trade andcustoms procedures facilitation, would also increase exports. Private entrepreneurs should alsoexpect that that their investments in innovation, research and development, employee skills andadvanced technologies will be beneficial for their export activity. In summary, the results ofthis study provide information for policymakers and stakeholders that will facilitate elaborationof policy interventions aimed at improvement of export performance of manufactures intransition economies.

Referecnces

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2. Arnold, J.M., Mattoo, A. and Narciso, G. 2006. Services inputs and firm productivity inSub-Saharan Africa: evidence from firm-level data. The World Bank, Policy ResearchWorking Paper № 4048.

64


3. Arnold, J.M., Javorcik, B. and Mattoo, A. 2011. Does services liberalization benefitmanufacturing firms: evidence from the Czech Republic. Journal of InternationalEconomics, vol. 85 (1), pp. 136-146.

4. Balchin, N. and Edwards, L. 2008. Trade-related business climate and manufacturingexport performance in Africa: a firm-level analysis. Paper presented at the 2008Conference of the African Econometric Society (AES), Pretoria, South Africa. Availableat:http://www.africametrics.org/documents/conference08/day2/session5/balchin_edwards.pdf

5. Baldwin, J.R. and Gu, W. 2004. Trade liberalization: export-market participation,productivity growth and innovation. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol. 20(3), pp.372-392.

6. Bernard, A. B. and Jensen, J. B. 1995. Exporters, jobs, and wages in U.S. manufacturing:1976–1987. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Microeconomics, pp. 67–119.

7. Bernard, A. B. and Jensen, J. B. 1999. Exceptional exporter performance: cause, effect, orboth? Journal of International Economics, vol. 47(1), pp. 1–25.

8. Bernard, A. B. and Jensen, J. B. 2004. Exporting and productivity in the USA. OxfordReview of Economic Policy, vol. 20(3), pp. 343–357.

9. Bernard, A. B. and. Wagner, J. 1997. Exports and success in German manufacturing.Review of World Economics, vol. 133(1), pp. 134–157.

10. Bernard, A. B. and Wagner, J. 2001. Export entry and exit by German firms. Review ofWorld Economics, vol. 137(1), pp. 105–123.

11. Berulava G. 2012. The Impact of Services Sector on Export Performance ofManufacturing Firms in Transition Economies. Moambe, Bulletin of the GeorgianNational Academy of Sciences, vol.6(3), pp. 154-162.

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13. Clarke, G. 2005. Beyond tariff and quotas: why don’t African manufacturing enterprisesexport more? The World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper WPS3617.

14. Clerides, S. K., Lach, S. and Tybout, J. R. 1998. Is learning by exporting important?Microdynamic evidence from Colombia, Mexico, and Morocco. Quarterly Journal ofEconomics, vol. CXIII (3), pp. 903–947.

15. Dollar, D., Hallward-Driemeier, M. and Mengistae, T. 2006. Investment climate andinternational integration. World Development, vol. 34(9), pp. 1498-1516.

16. EBRD. 2009. Transition report 2009: transition in crisis? European Bank forReconstruction and Development. Available at:http://www.ebrd.com/downloads/research/transition/TR09.pdf

17. Eschenbach, F. and Hoekman, B. 2006. Services policy reform and economic growth intransition economies. Review of World Economics, vol. 142(4), pp. 746-764.

18. Fernandes A. M and Paunov, C. 2012. Foreign direct investment in services andmanufacturing productivity growth: Evidence for Chile. Journal of DevelopmentEconomics, vol. 97 (2), pp. 305-321.

19. Greenaway, D. and Kneller, R. 2004. Exporting and productivity in the United Kingdom.Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol. 20(3), pp. 358–371.

20. Greenaway, D. and. Yu, Z. 2004. Firm-level interactions between exporting andproductivity: industry-specific evidence. Review of World Economics, vol. 140(3), pp.376–392.

21. Hausman, J. A., and Taylor, W. E. 1981. Panel data and unobservable individual effect.Econometrica, vol. 49 (6), pp. 1377-1398.

65


22. Heckman J. J. 1979. Sample selection bias as a specification error. Econometrica, vol.47(1), pp. 153–161.

23. Helpman, E., Melitz, M., and Rubinstein, Y. 2008. Estimating trade flows: trading partnersand trading volumes. Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 123(2), pp. 441-487.

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25. Melitz, M.J. 2003. The impact of trade on intra-industry reallocations and aggregateindustry productivity. Econometrica, vol. 71 (6), pp. 1695-1725.

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28. World Bank. 1996. The East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy. WorldBank Policy Research Reports (Oxford University Press).

giorgi berulava

emd, prof.

Tsu p. guguSvilis sax. ekonomikisinstitutis ganyofilebis gamge

saeqsporto saqmianobis gaumjobeseba gadamamuSavebeli mrewvelobis

sawarmoebSi gardamavali ekonomikis mqone qveynebSi: rogoria

momsaxurebis dargebis reformebis roli?

vrceli reziume

eqsportireba warmoadgens ekonomikuri saqmianobis mniSvnelovan

saxeobas, romelic xels uwyobs mwarmoeblurobis zrdasa da cxovrebis

donis amaRlebas. aRmosavleTaziuri “vefxvebis” gamocdileba adastu-

rebs, rom saeqsporto saqmianobis zrda CamorCenili bazris mqone qvey-nebSi unda ganixilebodes rogorc qveynis strategiis erT-erTi Ziri-Tadi komponenti [The World Bank, 1996]. sxva sityvebiT, gardamavali eko-nomikis mqone qveynebis erT-erTi ZiriTadi amocanaa saeqsporto saqmia-nobisaTvis xelsayreli garemos Seqmna, romelic maT unda gadaWran Ta-vianTi ekonomikuri ganviTarebis gzaze.

winamdebare naSromSi fokusirebulia gardamavali ekonomikis

qveynebSi momsaxurebis dargebis gavlena saeqsporto saqmianobaze. arse-

buli kvlevebis Tanaxmad, saeqsporto saqmianobis gaumjobesebam SeiZ-

leba garkveuli mogeba moutanos gardamavali ekonomikis mqone qveynebs.

eqsportis zrdam SeiZleba gazardos individualuri firmebis mwarmoeb-

luroba “eqsportis procesSi Seswavlis” gziT, anda xeli Seuwyos

damatebiT maRalteqnologiuri produqtebis imports. nebismier SemT-

xvevaSi es uzrunvelyofs ekonomikuri zrdis stimulirebas.

66


Tumca urTierTkavSiri mwarmoebluroba-eqsporti bolo wlebSi

Zalian intensiurad Seiswavleboda, am urTierTobebis zogierTi aspeqti

bolomde jer kidev ar gamokvleula. magaliTad, melicis [Мелиц, 2003]mier inicirebuli samecniero literaturis mniSvnelovani nawili,

romelic eZRvneba heterogenuri firmebis saqmianobis Seswavlas,

varaudobs, rom eqsportiorebi ufro maRalwarmoebluri firmebi arian.

amdagvari midgomis safuZvelSi devs imis daSveba, rom arsebobs fiqsi-rebuli danazogebi, romlebic dakavSirebulia gayidvebTan saeqsporto

bazrebze. aqedan gamomdinare, mxolod maRalmwarmoeblur firmebs

SeuZliaT eqsportis ganxorcieleba, maSin roca naklebmwarmoebluri

sawarmoebi imuSaveben mxolod Sida bazarze. am kvlevebSi saeqsporto

bazrebze damoukideblad gamavali firmebis maRali mwarmoebluroba

ganixileba rogorc am firmis gonivruli politikis Sedegi. amisda

miuxedavad, firmis maRali mwarmoeblurobis miRweva aseve SeiZleba im

gare faqtorebis gavleniT, romlebic misi uSualo kontrolis qveS ar

aris. mwarmoeblurobaze gavlenis mqone eqsportsa da garefaqtorebis

urTierTobebis bolo empiriuli kvlevebi ZiriTadad Tavmoyrilia biz-

nesklimatis gavlenaze. magaliTad, klarkma [Кларк, 2005] afrikeli

eqsportiorebis kvlevisas aRmoaCina,rom TviT sawarmos maxasia-Teblebad damatebiT, savaWro politikasTan dakavSirebuli cvladebi

aseve axdenen gavlenas saeqsporto saqmianobaze. kerZod, avtori

amtkicebs, rom restruqciuli savaWro da sabaJo regulireba, aseve

araefeqturi sabaJo administrireba SeiZleba uaryofiTad moqmedebs

sawarmos survilze, dakavdes saeqsporto saqmianobiT. belCinma da

edvardsma [Белчин и Эдвардс, 2008] daadgines, rom biznesklimati mWidro

kavSirSia afrikis samrewvelo sawarmoTa saeqsporto saqmianobasTan.

mwarmoebelTa saeqsporto saqmianobaze biznes klimatis da infra-

struqturuli garemos gavlenis empiriuli mtkicebulebebi SeiZleba

moiZebnos rig sxva naSromebSic [Dollar et.al., 2006; Iwanow and Kirkpatrick, 2008].miuxedavad imisa, rom Teoriis Tanaxmad, momsaxurebis sferos

ukeTesma funqcionirebam SeiZleba gazardos gadamamuSavebeli mrewve-

lobis sawarmoTa eqsporti (rogorc intensiuri, aseve eqstensiuri as-

peqtiT) am or faqtors Soris empiriuli kavSiri arasakmarisadaa Ses-wavlili. ufro metic, am sferoSi arsebuli kvlevebi eyrdnoba afrikis

da laTinuri amerikis qveynebis monacemebs. amave dros, garkveuli nak-lovanebebiarsebobs gardamavali ekonomikis qveynebSi saeqsporto

saqmianobis Semswavlel kvlevebSi. SevecdebiT, Cvens naSromSi es nakli

gamovasworoT, yuradReba gavamaxviloT momsaxurebis sferos efeqtur

funqcionirebasa da samrewvelo sawarmoebis saeqsporto saqmianobis

urTierTobaTa Seswavlaze gardamavali ekonomikis qveynebSi.

literaturis gacnoba saSualebas gvaZlevs, ZiriTadi sakvlevi

hipoTeza Semdegnairad CamovayaliboT: momsaxurebis dargebis funqcio-

nirebis gaumjobeseba dadebiTad da statistikurad mniSvnelovnad ax-

67


dens gavlenas rogorc saeqsporto bazrebze gasvlis gadawyvetilebaze

(eqstensiuri aspeqti), aseve saeqsporto saqmianobis intensiurobaze

(intensiuri aspeqti).

momsaxurebis sferos gavlenis Sefaseba mwarmoeblebis saeqspor-

to saqmianobaze xorcieldeba paneluri mikrodoneebis arabalansire-

buli regresiis modelis bazaze. paneluri monacemebi aRebulia sawar-moTa gamokiTxvebis monacemTa bazebidan (saqmiani garemos da sawarmoTa

saqmianobis kvlevaTa paneluri monacemebi (BEEPS))22. naSromSi momsa-xurebis sferos saqmianobis efeqturobis Sesafaseblad gamoyenebulia

cvladebis ori kategoria. cvladebis pirveli jgufi warmodgenilia

subieqturi maCveneblebiT, romlebic emyareba firmis menejerebis mier

im problemebis Sefasebebs, romlebsac maT bizness uqmnis Semdegi

dargebi: telekomunikaciebi, eleqtroenergetika da finansebi. cvladebis

meore jgufi warmodgenilia reformirebis indeqsebiT EBRD [EBRD, 2009],romlebic asaxavs momsaxurebaTa vaWrobis saerTo liberalizacias.

paneluri regresiis modelis Sefasebisas SeiZleba wamoiWras

garkveuli problemebi. jer erTi, radganac eqsportis intensiuroba

warmoadgens ukvec cvlads, modulis Sefasebisas Cndeba problemebi,

romlebic dakavSirebulia SerCevis gadaadgilebasTan. meore problemas

Sexeba aqvs cvladi momsaxurebis SesaZlo endogenurobasTan, aseve

zogierT sxva damoukidebel cvladebTan. SerCevis gadaadgilebis

problemis gadasawyvetad am naSromSi gamoiyeneba Sefasebis orbijiani

procedura [Heckman, 1979; Helpman et. al, 2008; Shepotulo, 2009]. pirvel etapze

yalibdeba eqsportis SesaZleblobebis ganmsazRvreli modeli. meore

etapze iqmneba SerCevis gadaadgileba, koreqtirdeba gamoTvlili indivi-dualuri albaTobebis anda milsis Sebrunebuli koeficientis, rogorc

paneluri regresiis gantolebaSi damatebiTi damoukidebeli cvladis

saxiT CarTviT. cvladi momsaxurebebis, romelTa korelacia SesaZle-

belia individualuri specifikuri efeqtiT, endogenurobis problemis

gadasawyvetad, eqsportis intensiurobis gantoleba fasdeba hausman-

teiloris proceduris gamoyenebiT [Hausman and Taylor, 1981].naSromis ZiriTad Sedegs warmoadgens im faqtis warmoCena, rom

momsaxurebis sferos saqmianobis gaumjobeseba xels uwyobs gadamamu-

Savebeli mrewvelobis saeqsporto saqmianobis gaumjobesebas. kerZod,

kvlevis procesSi dadginda, rom eleqtroenergetikis da telekomuni-

kaciebis dargis araefeqturi saqmianobis SemTxvevaSi winaaRmdegobebis

da SezRudvebis Semcireba astimulirebs gadamamuSavebeli mrewvelobis

saeqsporto saqmianobas. analogiurad, telekomunikaciebis, eleqtro-

energetikis, sarkinigzo da sagzao transportis, wylis distribuciis

da sabanko seqtoris sferoebSi liberalizaciis reformebis gatareba

iwvevs mwarmoebelTa saeqsporto saqmianobis gafarToebas. analizis

Sedegebi mowmobs, rom momsaxurebis sferos reformireba SedarebiT

22 https://www.enterprisesurveys.org/68


seriozul gavlenas axdens mewarmeTa saeqsporto saqmianobis intensiu-

robaze, vidre maT saeqsporto bazarze gasvlis gadawyvetilebaze.

mocemul naSromSi ganxilulia agreTve firmis specifikuri faq-

torebis gavlena mis saeqsporto saqmianobaze. arsebuli kvlevebis Sede-

gebis Tanaxmad aRmovaCenT, rom inovaciebi, investiciebi kvlevebsa da

ganviTarebaSi, ucxouri kapitali, mowinave teqnologiebis gamoyeneba da

firmis zoma saeqsporto saqmianobaSi gadamamuSavebeli seqtoris sawar-moTa warmatebis ZiriTadi faqtoria gardamavali ekonomikis qveynebSi,

mowinave teqnologiebis gamoyeneba zrdis gadamamuSavebeli firmis

konkurentunarianobas globalur bazrebze da amiT stimuls aZlevs

maTi saeqsporto saqmianobis intensivobas.

aseve did rols TamaSobs firmis zoma da ucxouri kapitali. yve-

la es faqtori dadebiTad moqmedebs ara marto mwarmoebelTa gadawyve-tilebaze saeqsporto bazarze gasvlis Sesaxeb, aramed maTi saeqsporto

saqmianobis intensiurobazec. msxvil firmebs gaaCniaT upiratesobebi

finansuri resursebis mopovebis saqmeSi, romlebic aucilebelia ucxo-ur bazrebze sadistribucio qselebis Sesaqmnelad. garda amisa, msxvil

firmebs gaaCniaT meti saSualebebi globaluri konkurentuli upirate-

sobis misaRwevad. es momenti gansakuTrebiT aqtualuria gardamavali

ekonomikis qveynebisaTvis. ucxouri kapitali, Tavis mxriv, aadvilebs

mowinave mmarTvelobiTi codnis, gamocdilebis da teqnologiebis

transferts, romelic aucilebelia saerTaSoriso bazrebze konkuren-

tuli upiratesobis mosapoveblad. aseve naTelia, rom vaWrobis gaadvi-

leba, maregulirebeli garemos xarisxi, konkurenciis done, evrokav-

Siris wevroba es yvelaferi gavlenas axdens eqsportze.

kvlevis Sedegebi savaWro politikis sferoSi zogierT rekomen-dacias udevs safuZvelad. jer erTi, es Sedegebi aCvenebs, rom momsa-xurebis efeqturi dargi aris strategiuli da mwarmoebelTa saeqspor-to saqmianobis bolomde ar gamoyenebuli resursi, romelic poli-tikosebis xelSia. sawarmoo dargebis saeqsporto saqmianobis stimuli-rebisaTvis xelisuflebam fokusireba unda moaxdinos momsaxurebis

sferos Semdgom liberalizaciasa da reformirebaze. es reformebi

mimarTuli unda iyos gadamamuSavebeli mrewvelobis sawarmoTaTvis

momsaxurebebis adekvaturi xelmisawvdomobis uzrunvelyofaze da amiT

maTTvis biznesis warmoebis danaxarjebis Semcirebaze.

dasasrul, kvlevis Sedegebi warmoadgens informacias politiko-sebisa da sxva dainteresebuli mxareebisaTvis gardamavali ekonomikis

qveynebSi gadamamuSavebeli mrewvelobis sawarmoTa saeqsporto saqmia-nobis gaumjobesebis RonisZiebaTa SemuSavebis mizniT.

69


makroekonomikaMACROECONOMICS

Lasha Kavtaradze23

Doctor of Public EconomicsHead of Macroeconomic Analysis andTax Policy Unit at the Parliamentary

Budget Office of Georgia

INVESTIGATING SAVINGS-INVESTMENT GAP IN GEORGIA

SummaryPrior to the global financial crisis, Georgia faced high foreign investment inflows with

expanded domestic credits and government expenditures. High inflation and a positive outputgap were also the other two major issues that Georgia had to face with during this period. Acombination of these shocks associated with a sizable negative savings-investment gap duringthe 2006-2008 periods. However, the negative savings-investment gap narrowed and reachedto a historically low level of 5.8% by 2013.

In this paper, I investigate the driving factors that have determined the savings-investment gap in Georgia. I use the “Jacknife Model Averaging” Estimator to show privatecredit, GDP gap, FDI inflows, government expenditure and other indicators effects on theGeorgian savings-investment gap. Effects of FX reserves and inflation on the savings-investment gap in Georgia constituted further findings of my study. While my analysis showsthat the current account deficit supports the economic growth in the medium term. To achievea sustainable growth path, Georgia must encourage savings, which is currently lower than itsoptimum level.

Keywords: Savings, Investment, Georgian Economy, Jacknife Model Averaging.Jel Codes: E21, E22, E62, F32, F41.

1. IntroductionSustainable economic growth can be achieved only by increase in potential gross

domestic product (GDP). The potential GDP per se is affected by capital, labor force andtechnological changes. While the latter component is very important, improvement intechnology is feasible only in the long-run. In the medium term, capital is an important drivingfactor of economic development. Hence, enabling stable flows of long-term capital (such asforeign direct investment) to countries with large investment needs must be a priority.Evidence shows that with greater levels of capital, not only does the output grow at a faster

23 The views and thoughts expressed in this article are those of author and do not necessarily representsviews and thought of the Parliamentary Budget Office of Georgia.70


rate, but also the pace of technological improvement quickens; thus, providing a furthercatalyst for achieving sustainable economic growth.

The role assigned to investment in the process of economic growth is certainlyrelevant in growth theory and policy making. A major source of investment is savings. Hence,a linkage between savings and investment arise because “an increase a national saving has asubstantial effect on the level of investment” (Feldstein and Baccetta, 1991).

Some studies (Barro 1991, Caselli, Esquirrel and Lefort 1995, Islam 1996) suggestthat growth rate and investment (savings) co-move when there is a positive productivity shock.Taking the latter (productivity) as a constant, then one wonders if countries should increaseinvestments and savings rates by accelerating the pace of their economic growth? Are therereinforcing effects between balanced savings-investment and growth? What are the maindeterminants of driving savings-investment gap? These are the questions that I will answer inthis paper.

As various studies show, in the medium-term, for having 6-7 percent of economicgrowth an economy needs to maintain an investment level that is no less than 30 percent ofGDP24. Investment is possible when total savings are sufficient. If savings rates are falling, acontinued economic contraction is the possible result, with decreasing GDP and falling livingstandards.

In some countries including Georgia, savings-investment imbalances had widenedmarkedly in the years prior to the crisis (Figure 1). The savings-investment gap was relativelysteady until 2005. The constant gap increased sharply when savings reduced drastically.However, the gap has started reducing since 2011, when both investments and savings bouncedback. During the high savings-investment gap, the real growth rate of gross domestic product(GDP) ranged between 7-12 percent (with exception of 2008-2009), and the GDP growthslowed when the gap narrowed. This was mainly due to a higher decreasing speed ofinvestment than that of savings. Regardless of a 25% investments of GDP ratio in 2013,economic growth slowed down (from 6.4% to 3.3%), enabling us to assume that Georgia didnot have a strong basis for both economic growth and job creation.

Figure 1: Savings & Investments

24 The Working Group on Long-term Finance, “Long-Term Finance and Economic Growth”, the Groupof Thirty, 2013, Washington D.C. etc.

71


Source: The National Statistics Office of Georgia; Ministry of Finance of Georgia.

Facing the fact that, the Georgian economy is very sensitive to changing investmentenvironment and is trapped in non-desired savings rate environment, a long-run high economicgrowth rate appears to be not its horizon. In the transition economies, including Georgia, highgrowth rate fixed when savings-investment gap was considerably high, more precisely, whenthe current account balance was reflected by a low level of national savings with respect toinvestment.

Since 1996 Georgia has been running both current account and fiscal deficits. Thedeficits narrowed during 1996-2004, but then reversed sharply in the periods of high economicgrowth (which mostly was driven by high inflows of foreign direct investments), and the CAdeficit picked up at 22% of GDP in 2009 and the fiscal deficit - at 9.2% of GDP in 2009(Figure 2).

Figure 2: The “Twin Deficit”

Source: The National Bank of Georgia; Ministry of Finance of Georgia.

During the global financial crisis nominal exchange rate (GEL/US dollar) depreciatedby 12.1%, and 6.7% in 2009 and 2010, respectively. This, in conjunction with lower domesticdemand and reduction in FDI inflows led more than halved CA deficits (it reduced and reachedat 10.6% in 2009 and 10.2% in 2010), however, sharply deteriorated fiscal deficits (9.2% in2009 and 6.7% in 2010). Later on, in 2013, the CA deficits improved to its lowest at 6% ofGDP.

Taking all the fact into account with additional features of the Georgian economy,investigating and understanding the determinants of savings-investment gap is pivotal from apolicy perspective for Georgia25. The gap caused by a reduction in savings is likely to havemore adverse consequences than the one caused by an investment boom that contributes to thefuture growth and a country’s ability to repay its (government) debt.

Given the complex dynamics of the savings-investment, fiscal deficit, and currentaccount balance, the main goal of this paper is to investigate the determinants of savings-

25 There are also other indicators influencing on the CA balance will be explained in the nextsection according to estimation results.72


investment gap in Georgia. This will require a special focus on those factors that are drivingthe current account balance and its dynamics with fiscal deficit.

2. The Model

2.1. IdentitiesNational accounts allow us to identify sources of investments by the following well-

known identity:

where, S consists of private and government savings, I - investments (includinggovernment capital spending), X - exports, and IM – imports, NFI – net factor income fromabroad, and NTR – net current transfers from abroad. Noting that isthe account balance (CAB), then the aggregate public and private savings S is:

This shows that savings are the sum of investments and current account balance.Savings transform into investments or outflow abroad if the current account balance is positive:

Where, Current account deficit = -current account balance (CAD = -CAB). Thus, investment isthe sum of savings and current account deficit. This identity has an important conclusion: incountries, where income levels are low and therefore low propensity to savings, a main sourceof investment is foreign funds (current account deficit). In these countries, including Georgia,balancing the current account may cause a decrease in investments without any changes(increase) in domestic investments. Therefore, current account deficit for the developingcountries is an “allowance” for economic growth. Certainly, in the medium-term, privatesaving is expected to grow along with an increase in economic growth and revenue graduallycreates a room for investments to be funded domestically, which in turn brings the currentaccount deficit down (or balancing).

On the other hand, for a developing country with positive current account balance(fewer investments than domestic savings), savings tends to outflow to other countries causingeconomic slowdown at home.

In the equation (3), savings are composed of the private sector and the public sectorsavings. The latter is the difference between government current revenues and expenditures(net operating balance). The government saving can be easily managed through the use ofbudgetary policy, but having impact on the private sector saving is a much more complicatedtask.

Other things being equal, an increase in government saving automatically increasesthe size of the investment, regardless of whether government capital expenses increase or not.Reduced current account deficit can be compensated by an increase in government saving.However, if the current account deficit (as a % of GDP) is sufficiently high, then thiscompensation cannot be achieved by (only) the fiscal policy.

Equation (3) can be rewritten as:73


Equation 4 shows that, if the government increases the capital expense with nochanging in savings or current account deficits, this yields a non-increasing path for the totalinvestment. In this case, the government investment crowds out the non-governmentinvestment, while the total investment capacity remains unchanged. In fact, built-ininefficiencies in the government capital expenditures may reduce speed of the economicgrowth. The gross investment level will grow if the government investment grows inaccordance with the growth of government saving26.

In Georgia, during 1996-2000, the government saving was negative, which led toreducing in total investment and slowed economic development. Since 2001, the governmentsaving has been positive, but as shown in Figure 3, a decrease in the investment level duringthe global crisis of 2008-2009, partially was related to the reduction of the government saving.One also should note that during the 2006-2009 periods, private saving was significantlyreduced as well--the increase in the current account deficit were neutralized by narrowing theprivate saving at the initial stage.

Figure 3: Decomposition of Savings

Source: Ministry of Finance of Georgia; the National Statistics office of Georgia.

In 2004-2008, a major source of growing investments was the current account deficit.In the absence of a decline in private saving, the economic growth would have been higherthan what was the actual experience in Georgia.

Last year, sluggish economic growth was driven by decelerating of the totalinvestment, which in turn was a reaction of the current account balance improvement.

As mentioned above, the target of economic growth (6-7 percent) is needed to achievethe 30% level of the investment to GDP. In Georgia, during the period of 2008-2013, theprivate saving to GDP was almost to 20%. One may assume that this will be maintained overthe medium-term period. Calculations show that foreign debt stabilization is supported by 7.5%

26 This implies that these two components should follow a cointegrated path.74


current account deficit to GDP ratio27. If we assume, in the medium-term, current accountdeficit will remain at the debt stabilizing level, then achieving the desired investment level forthe economic growth requires having government savings of no less than 2.5% of GDP. Ifcurrent account deficit remains at the 2013 level (5.8% of GDP), government saving can be noless than 4.0% of GDP. This implies that the budgetary policy has also an important impact onsavings-investment decision. However, in the case of increased current government spending,and a natural deviation from the optimum government saving level, there is no guarantee forachieving a sustainable economic growth path in the near future.

2.2. Model AveragingTo analyze determinants/factors of current account balance in Georgia, I use model

averaging to estimate unknown parameters of the model.The two most favored approaches to treat model uncertainty are model selection and

model averaging, while both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods have been proposed. By thenature of the average, model averaging is more robust than model selection, as the averagingestimator considers the uncertainty across different models together with the model bias fromeach candidate model (Hansen, 2007; Haddad and Nedeljkovic, 2012).

In this paper, I use a “Jackknife Model Averaging” (JMA) estimator for non-nestedand heteroscedastic models (B.E.Hansen, J.S.Racine, 2012) which selects the weights byminimizing a cross validation criterion. In models that are linear in the parameters the cross-validation criterion is a simple quadratic function of the weights, so the solution is foundthrough a standard application of numerical quadratic programming.

Thus, using the JMA, I am going to estimate the following simple regression28:

Where, is the current account to GDP ratio (dependent variable), while is the d-dimensional vector of explanatory variables, is random error term that is allowed to beheteroskedastic. No assumption on the distribution of the error term is imposed.

In this paper, I use some of explanatory variables measured by applying differentapproaches, while following variety possible variations suggested by Cusolito andNedeljkovich (2013). For instance, output gap employed in this paper is measured by usingmultivariate filter, such as a Kalman filter augmented by Phillips curve, instead of Hodrick-Prescott filtering method. Also, the paper exploited cyclically adjusted government expenses(elasticity of expenses with respect to the output gap is 0.2; however, for the robustness check Iused a zero elasticity too) instead of a simple government expenditures ratio to GDP, or abudget balance ratio to GDP.

27 Author’s calculation, upon request.28 See A.P. Cusolito and M. Nedeljkovic (2013).

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Let be the number of models where each model , represents a particularsubset of the explanatory variables whose dimension is smaller than d. The OLSparameter estimate for the model is, simply:

The averaging estimator for the full regression model is:

Where, the weights, , are assumed to be non-negative and sum up to one. The JMAestimator selects the weights by minimizing a leave-one-out cross-validation criterion. Hansenand Racine (2012) showed that the average squared error of the JMA estimator asymptoticallyattains the lowest average squared error among all feasible weight vectors.

3. DataTo estimate the equation (1) annual data is used over 1996-2013. The dependent

variable is the current account balance to GDP ratio. The set of explanatory variables29

includes: real GDP per capita (PPP); GDP gap30; and real exchange rate (REER). I also add oilprices (in log change) instead of terms of trade (TOT) because: in a highly dollarized economy(60%31) such as Georgia, the REER not only captures TOT effects, but also balance sheeteffects that may arise after REER shocks. Moreover, in an oil importing country like Georgia,oil prices affect the CA balance in its own right. Other explanatory variables studied in thepaper are: trade openness; net international investment position (NIIP); cyclically adjustedgovernment expenditure (% of GDP); foreign reserves (% of GDP); fertility rate; foreign directinvestment (FDI) (% of GDP); relative GDP growth; credit of private sector (% of GDP) andmoving average inflation volatility.

The sources of the data (Georgian Data set32) used in this paper are: The NationalStatistics Office of Georgia (GEOSTAT), the National Bank of Georgia (NBG), the Ministryof Finance of Georgia (MoF), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World EconomicOutlook (2013).

29 Relationship between current account balance and the explanatory variables, and also specification ofmost explanatory variables are well-structured with Cusolito & Nedeljkovic, “Toolkit for the Analysis ofCurrent Account Imbalances”, (2013).30 The gap is estimated using Kalman filter augmented by Philips Curve (author’s calculation).31

https://www.nbg.gov.ge/index.php?m=306&lng=eng32 The methodology requires that all variables satisfy stationary conditions.



3. Estimation ResultsThe predicted current account balance (CAB) obtained by using the JMA estimator is

shown below (Figure 4).

Figure 4: Estimation Results of CAB for Georgia

Source: Author’s calculation.

As we see, the weighted average result of all possible models performs nicely. Detailresults – impacts of various macro-fiscal variables on the CAB – are presented below in thetable. This table reports the standardized estimates, because exogenous variables captured inthe model are measured in different units of measurement and express the change in thedependent variable in standard deviations, induced by a change in one standard deviation of theexplanatory variable. All estimated coefficients are statistically significant and have expectedsigns33 (see appendix for the detail description of exogenous variables captured in the JMAmodel)34.

33 For the detail description of exogenous variables captured in the JMA model see table 1 in appendix.34 Result from alternative models, such as: (a) the full OLS estimates; b) the estimates from ModelAveraging with equal weights on each sub-model; c) the estimates when the best Model is selected byAIC; d) the estimates when the best Model is selected by BIC; e) the estimates from Model Averagingwith weights on each sub-model obtained by smoothed AIC; f) the estimates from Model Averaging withweights on each sub-model obtained by smoothed BIC, are available upon request.

77


Estimated Coefficients of the Current Account Balance (CAB)Georgia

Variables Coefficient Standardized Coefficient

Relative GDP growth -0.27***(0.05) -0.14

Output gap -1.73***(0.26) -0.11

Private sector credit -0.76***(0.03) -0.36

Cyclically adjustedgovernment expenditure

-0.15***(0.00) -0.16

Lagged CAB 0.00***(0.00)

0.00

Net International InvestmentPosition (NIIP)

-0.02***(0.00) -0.06

Relative GDP per capita (PPP) 0.00***(0.00)

REER change -0.06***(0.00)

Inflation volatility 0.09***(0.01)

Oil Prices 0.00***(0.00)

Trade Openness 0.04***(0.00)

FX reserves flow 0.47***(0.02)

FDI -0.53***

0.08

-0.09

0.04

-0.01

0.08

0.22

(0.01) -0.49

Fertility rate -1.36***(0.02)

-0.03

R squared (R^2) 0.88

*** Significant at the 1% level; ** significant at the 5% level; *significant at the 10% level.Standard errors are in parentheses;


Evidence from the empirical literatures (Sachs 1981; Obstfeld and Rogoff, 1995,1996;Ghosh 1995; Rasin 1995; Glick and Rogoff 1995), measuring influences of various economicvariables on current account balance is highly depended on countries’ specific factors and moreoften the impact is ambiguous. As we see from the Table 1, the most important variables indetermining of the current account deficit in Georgia are: the foreign direct investment (FDI),

78



the private credit, the stock of foreign exchange reserves, the government expenditure, therelative GDP growth to its top traders and the output gap.

The coefficient of the output gap is constructed as the difference between actual andpotential output estimated by using Kalman filter augmented by Philips curve. An increase inthe output gap signals a boom in demand beyond supply capacity, which is associated with areduction in saving. Therefore, one would expect that all other things equal, an increase in theoutput gap leads to a decrease in the CA Balance (or an increase in the deficit). The expectedcoefficient in the CA determinants regression, that captures the marginal change in the CAbalance induced by a marginal change in the output gap is negative and statistically significant(-0.11). In fact, when GDP gap (Figure 5.) experienced a sharp increase from 2006 until thethird quarter of 2008 (reached at its pick 6.1% in the third quarter on 2007) the CA deficitwidened drastically (19.6% in 2007 and 22% in 2008). It should be noted that, during theseperiods access to private credits (mostly from private banks) became much easier and itscontribution to the national economy (in stock) increased by 5-7% as of GDP in 2007-2008.The fact that credit expansion boosts demand has a negative pressure on savings, which in turndeteriorates current account balance. According to our estimation, marginal impact of privatecredit changes to CA balance is negative and sizeable (-0.36).

Figure 5: Output Gap in Georgia

Kalman Filter Estimation

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

-896 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

In a small open economy country such as Georgia foreign investments are of paramountimportance. Accumulating foreign reserves may have positive or negative effects on the CAbalance depending on the FX role on the exchange rate (prevention of appreciation ordepreciation). In Georgia, the FX sharply increased in 2007 and influenced on the currency,however, the monetary authority prevented its apparent appreciation. Therefore, as the modelestimates shows, the FX reveals a positive effect to detain further widening of the CA deficit.In contrast with the FX, the foreign direct investment (FDI) displays negative effect on the CAbalance (with highest standardized coefficient: -0.49), which can be explained by the fact thatin Georgia major parts of FDI go to the non-tradable sectors35 and it is mostly absorbed bypurchasing imported goods. As for the government expenditures, if it raises then demand

35 See distribution of FDI by sectors. Source: www.geostat.ge79


increases that will be in part satisfied by additional imports (Ahmed 1996). The marginalnegative effect (-0.16) of the government expenditure explains the CA deficit took place during2005-2008, when fiscal deficit increased from -0.3% in 2004 to -2.6% in 2005 and reached at -6.5% in 2008.

Apart from other small factors (indicated by their estimated negligible impacts), the aboveanalysis provides a framework for taking into account the important factors that deserveserious consideration in the policy making process in the country.

5. Conclusion and Policy RecommendationIn this policy paper, I investigated the determinants of the savings-investment gap in

Georgia. Analysis shows, that the current account deficit for Georgia behaves as an“allowance” for the economic growth in the short- and medium terms. However, the currentaccount balance creates significant uncertainty in the economy as well. Analysis shows that itis important that the government increases public investment in accordance with the publicsaving.

In Georgia savings and investment level are not sufficient for sustainable economicdevelopment, and when the CA deficit is caused by low saving, this poses uncertainty and risksin the allocation of resources.

Financial sector, which can play an intermediation role in boosting growth, in Georgiahad been characterized as an instable sector until 2005, because of lack of confidence, weakinstitutions and infrastructure, unhealthy competition, and some regulatory restrictions (IMFcountry report, 2006). According to the theory, such a feature of the financial system interferesto mobilizing and pooling savings. But in Georgia, when the financial system development hasbecome feasible since 2005, the level of national savings declined, while public savingremained unchanged until the global financial crisis (2008). Such a behavior of the societyafter the revival of the financial system was revealed because of too easy access to the bankingcredit, and people, instead of making savings, started purchasing houses, other properties,consume more good and service. Thus, accessing of the financial resource has opened room formore consumption by reducing private saving level and caused deterioration in the CAB,which is found in my analysis by revealing high impact of the private credit (-0.36) on thesavings-investment gap in Georgia.

The savings-investment gap in Georgia also is highly explained by the FDI, thegovernment expenses, the FX reserves factors and the output gap.

Deterioration of the Georgian CA balance in the 2006-2008 periods was mainly due toa positive GDP gap, sharp increases in the private credit, higher government expenditures, highFDI, and high net foreign liabilities.

Analysis shows that, for Georgia, it is more important to keep inflation volatility atminimum than focusing on the exchange rate stabilization. This is mainly due to theobservation that the former (inflation volatility) has higher negative effect on the CAB than thelatter (exchange rate fluctuation).

The finding that there is not sufficient savings in the Georgian economy is used as thepreludes to discussing the possible scenarios for improve savings in Georgia. Lack of anappropriate array of financial instruments hinders incentive and ability to save in Georgia.Thus, creation of financial instruments in must be considered as an important step towardsimproving long-term savings in Georgia.80


This paper also recommends further promotion of strategies that would encourageforeign investments into the tradable sector (manufacturing, agriculture, mining, retail, hotelsand restaurants), since tradable sector is associated with higher exports.

Given the important role of government savings in influencing CAB, the governmentshould maintain a minimum level of government savings is needed to stabilize the governmentdebt and achieve moderate growth rate (but unsustainable). However, achieving a sustainableeconomic growth path needs high level of savings and investment.

And lastly, high current account deficit not only in Georgia, but also in othertransition countries will remain the status of the “allowance” for the growth only in a case ofneglecting external shocks.

6. References

1. Apoteker, Th. And Kassay, A. (2014), “Currency and Current Account Rebalancing inIndonesia”, OECD Workshop, Paris.

2. Blanchard, O. (2007), “Current Account Deficits in Rich Countries”, IMF Staff Papers, Vol.54.

3. Calderon, A., Chong, A. and Zanforlin, L. (2001), “Are African Current Account DeficitDifferent? Stylized Facts, Transitory Shocks, and Decomposition Analysis” IMF WorkingPaper.

4. Chinn, M.D., (2005), “Current Account Balances, Financial Development and Institutions:Assaying the World “Savings Glut” “, Working Paper 11761, Cambridge MA.

5. Choi, H. and Mark, N.C. (2009), “Trending Current Accounts”.6. Calderon, A. Chong, A. and Loayza, N. (2002), “Determinants of Current Account Deficits in

Developing Countries.” Policy Research Working Paper.7. Carroll, C.D and D.N. Weil (1994), “Saving and Growth: A Reinterpretation”. Carnegie-

Rocherster Conference Series on Public Policy.8. Chinn, M. and E. Prasad (2003), “Medium-term Determinants of Current Accounts in

Industrial and Developing Countries: an Empirical Exploration”. Journal of InternationalEconomics.

9. Cusolito, A. and M. Nedeljkovic (2013), “Toolkit for the Analysis of Current AccountImbalances”, International Trade Department, World Bank, DC.

10. Debelle, G. and H. Faruque (1996), “What Determines the Current Account? A Cross-Sectional and Panel Approach”. IMF working Paper No. 58. IMF, Washington, DC.

11. Feldstein, M. and Bacchetta, Ph. (1991), “National Saving and International Investment”,National Berau of Economic Research.

12. Ghosh, A. and Ramakrishnan, U. (2014), “Current Account Deficits: Is There A Problem”,IMF.

13. Gruber, J.W., and S. B. Kamin (2007), “Explaining the Global Pattern of Current AccountImbalances”, Journal of International Money and Finance.

14. Hansen, B., and Racine, J. (2012), “Jackknife Model Averaging”. Journal of Econometrics.15. Hermann, S. and Jochem, A. (2005), “Determinants of Current Account Developments in the

Central and East European EU Member States – Consequences for the Enlargement of the EUArea”, Discussion Paper, Series 1: Economic Studies, No 32.

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16. Hochreiter, E. and Gylfason, Th. (2008), “Growing Apart? A Tale of Two Republics: Estoniaand Georgia”, IMF Working Paper, 235.

17. Kinoshita, Y. (2011), “Sectoral Composition of FDI and External Vulnerability in EasterEurope”, IMF Working Paper, 4.

18. Kwiatkowski, D., P.C. S. Phillips, P. Schmidt, and Y. Shin (1992), “Testing the NullHypothesis of Stationarity against the Alternative of a Unit Root” Journal of Econometrics.

19. Milesi-Ferretti, G.M. and A. Razin (1996), “Sustainability of Persistent Current AccountDeficits”, NBER Working Paper 5467, National Bureau of Economic Research.

20. Obstfeld, M. and K. Rogoff (1996), “Foundations of International Macroeconomics”,Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

21. Rangazas, P. and Mourmouras, A. (2008), “Fiscal Policy and Economic Development”, IMFWorking Paper 155.

22. Reyes, J.D. and G. Varela (2013), “Georgia: Trade Competitiveness Diagnostic”, InternationalTrade Department, PREM, Mimeo, Washington, DC.

AppendixUnit Root Test on Stationarity

Unit Root Test Georgia Japan

Variables: KPSS test KPSS test

Current Account Balance 0.221(1)

Relative GDP growth 0.379(0)

Output gap 0.268(0)

Credit change (p) 0.080(0)*Cyclically adjust. Gov.spending 0.367(1)

NIIP 0.437(1)

Relative GDP per capita (PPP) 0.593(1)

REER change 0.294(0)

Inflation volatility 0.212(0)

Change in Oil Prices 0.500(0)

Trade Openness 0.584(1)

FX reserves flow 0.053(1)*

FDI 0.275(1)

Fertility rate 0.251(1)

0.154(1)

0.422(0)

0.10(0)*

0.145(0)

0.245(0)

0.618(1)

0.166(1)

0.153(2)

0.191(2)

0.500(0)

0.535(1)

0.137(0)

0.482(1)

0.479(1)

Notes: * denote the rejection of the null hypothesis of stationarity at 10% significance level. Thenumber of lags included using the partial autocorrelation function is in brackets.

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laSa qavTaraZe

saxelmwifo ekonomikis doqtori

saqarTvelos parlamentis sabiujeto ofisis

makroekonomikuri analizisa da sagadasaxado

politikis ganyofilebis ufrosi

danazogebi-investiciebis gapis gamokvleva saqarTveloSi36

vrceli reziume

mdgradi ekonomikuri zrdis miRweva SesaZlebelia mxolod poten-

ciuri mTliani Sida produqtis (mSp) matebisas. Tavis mxriv, potenciur mSp-

ze gavlena aqvs kapitals, samuSao Zalas da teqnologiur cvlilebebs. es

ukanaskneli Zalzed mniSvnelovania, magram misi myisieri gaumjobeseba

rogorc wesi ver xerxdeba, ris gamoc misi gavlena SesamCnevi xdeba

grZelvadian periodSi. saSualovadian periodSi ki ekonomikuri zrdis

warmarTvel faqtors kapitali warmoadgens. praqtika aCvenebs, rom kapi-

talis maRali done ara marto mSp-is zrdas aCqarebs, aramed teqnologiuri

progresis daCqarebasac uwyobs xels. amis gamo, kapitalis maRali done

mdgradi ekonomikuri zrdis katalizatorad aris miCneuli.

kapitalis, rogorc maragebis formirebaSi mniSvnelovan rols

investiciebis nakadebi TamaSobs, xolo investiciebis ZiriTad wyaros

danazogebi warmoadgens. aqedan gamomdinare, danazogebsa da investiciebs

Soris ikveTeba mWidro kavSiri, radgan danazogebis zrdas mniSvnelovani

gavlena aqvs investiciebis doneze (Feldstein and Baccetta, 1991).zogierTi mkvlevari (Barro 1991, Caselli, Esquirrel and Lefort 1995, Islam 1996)

miiCnevs, rom mSp-is zrdis tempi da investiciebi (danazogebi) erTi

mimarTulebiT gadaadgildeba, roca adgili aqvs produqtiulobis dadebiT

Soks. Tu produqtiulobas miviCnevT rogorc ucvlels, maSin Cndeba

saintereso kiTxvebi: qveynebma unda gazardon investiciebis da danazogebis

done, raTa ekonomikuri zrda daCqardes? arsebobs raime gamaZlierebeli

efeqti dabalansebul danazog-investiciebsa da ekonomikur zrdas Soris?

Tu arsebobs, maSin ra aris danazogebi-investiciebis gapis (daubalan-

seblobis) ZiriTadi mamoZravebeli determinantebi? statia gvTavazobs

aRniSnul kiTxvebze SesaZlo pasuxebs.

rogorc sxvadasxva kvlevebi gviCvenebs, saqarTvelosTvis saSualo-

vadian periodSi ekonomikuri zrdis 6-7 procentis farglebSi Senar-

CunebisaTvis saWiroa, rom investiciebi Seadgendes aranakleb mSp-s 30

procents.

sayovelTaod cnobil igiveobaze dayrdnobiT, danazogebi udris

investiciebisa da mimdinare angariSis balansis jams. Tu davuSebT, rom

36 statiaSi arsebuli xedvebi da Sefasebebi mTlianad ekuTvnis avtors da ar warmoadgenssaqarTvelos parlamentis sabiujeto ofisis xedvebs da Sefasebebs.

83


uaryofiTi mimdinare angariSis balansi = mimdinare angariSis deficits

(saqarTveloSi mimdinare angariSis balansi mTeli istoriis manZilze

uaryofiTia), maSin Semdegi mniSvnelovani daskvnis gakeTeba SeiZleba:

qveynebSi, sadac Semosavlebis done dabalia da mosaxleoba ver axerxebs

dazogvas, investiciebis wyaros warmoadgens ucxouri saxsrebi (mimdinare

angariSis deficiti). aseT qveynebSi, saSinao danazogebis zrdis gareSe,

mimdinare angariSis dabalansebam SesaZloa gamoiwvios investiciebis

Semcireba da ekonomikuri zrdis mniSvnelovani Seneleba. ganviTarebadi

qveynebisTvis, maT Soris saqarTvelosTvis, mimdinare angariSis deficiti

warmoadgens ekonomikuri zrdis „safasurs“. amasTan gasaTvaliswinebelia,

isic, rom, Tu ganviTarebad qveyanas aqvs mimdinare angariSis dadebiTi

saldo, maSin am qveyanaSi investiciebi saSinao danazogebze naklebi iqneba,

igi gadaiqceva sxva qveynebis donorad, saSinao danazogebi gaedineba sxva

qveynebSi, ris gamoc misi ekonomikuri zrda Seneldeba.

Tu danazogebs da investiciebs davyofT kerZo da mTavrobis

danazogebad da investiciebad, maSin vRebulobT, rom kerZo investiciebs +

mTavrobis investiciebi = kerZo danazogebs + mTavrobis danazogebi +

mimdinare angariSis deficiti. am tolobis gamoyenebiT SesaZloa,

gaanalizdes mTavrobis kapitaluri xarjebis (mTavrobis investiciebis)

gavlena mTlian investiciebsa da ekonomikur zrdaze. Tu mTavroba zrdis

kapitalur xarjebs, magram ar xdeba danazogebis mateba an mimdinare

angariSis deficitis zrda, maSin avtomaturad ar moxdeba mTliani

investiciebis mateba. am dros mTavrobis investiciebi gamoaZevebs kerZo

investiciebs da misi mTliani moculoba darCeba ucvleli. Tu mTavrobis

kapitaluri xarjebis efeqtianoba dabalia, maSin SesaZloa, Semcirdes

ekonomikuri zrdis tempic. mTavrobis investiciebis zrda, Sesabamisad,

gazrdis investiciebis mTlian moculobas maSin, Tu paralelurad moxdeba

mTavrobis danazogebis zrdac. bunebrivia, mTavrobis investiciebi unda

miemarTebodes ekonomikuri infrastruqturis ganviTarebisken da igi ar

unda gaxdes kerZo seqtoris konkurenti. mTavrobis investiciebi unda

qmnides kerZo investiciebisTvis sasurvel garemos, unda avsebdes kerZo

investiciebs da aCqarebdes ekonomikuri zrdis temps.

saqarTveloSi danazogebi-investiciebis disbalansze moqmedi faq-

torebis zemoqmedebis gaanalizebis mizniT, statiaSi gamoyenebulia

“Jackknife Model Averaging” (SemoklebiT, JMA), romlis detalebi mocemu-

lia Hansen & Racine-Tan (2012).

JMA-Si saboloo cvlads warmoadgens mimdinare angariSis balansi

mSp-sTan, xolo sawyisi cvladebi moicavs: realuri mSp-s erT sul

mosaxleze (msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetis gaTvaliswinebiT); mSp-is gaps

(kalmanis filtriT Sefasebuli), realur efeqtur gacvliT kurss, nav-

Tobis fasebs (logariTmuli cvlilebiT), wminda saerTaSoriso sainves-

ticio pozicias, ciklurad Sesworebul mTavrobis danaxarjebs mSp-Tan,

ucxour rezervebs mSp-Tan, Sobadobas, pirdapir ucxour investiciebs mSp-

84


Tan, SefardebiTi mSp-is zrdas, kerZo seqtoris dakreditebas mSp-Tan da

inflaciis cvalebadobis moZraobis saSualos. aRniSnuli maCveneblebis

monacemebi aris wliuri da moicavs 1996-2013 ww. periods.

Sedegebi aCvenebs, rom saqarTveloSi danazogebi-investiciebis gapze

yvelaze mniSvnelovani gavlena aqvs pirdapir ucxour investiciebs, kerZo

seqtoris dakreditebas, ucxour rezervebs, mTavrobis danaxarjebs,

SefardebiT mSp-is zrdasa (saqarTvelos msxvili savaWro partnior

qveynebis mimarT) da mSp-is gaps.

mSp-is gapis zrda (dadebiTi mSp-is gapi), rogorc erTgvari „bumis“signali moTxovnis mxridan (miwodebis SesaZleblobebis miRma), asoci-rebulia danazogebis SemcirebasTan. aqedan gamomdinare, sxva Tanabar

pirobebSi, mSp-is gapis zrda iwvevs mimdinare angariSis deficitis zrdas.

JMA-is mixedviT, mSp-is zRvruli gavlena mimdinare angariSis balansze

aris uaryofiTi (-0.11) da statistikurad mniSvnelovani. saqarTveloSi, ro-ca mSp-is gapi SesamCnevad gaizarda 2006-2008 wlebSi (mag., 2007 wlis me-3 kvar-talSi mSp-is gapma 6.1%-s miaRwia), maSin mimdinare angariSis deficiti mniSv-nelovnad gafarTovda (19.6% 2007 wels, xolo 22% 2008 wels). unda aRiniS-nos, rom am periodSi bankebis mxridan kerZo seqtoris dakretidebam sagrZ-noblad moimata, ramac Tavis mxriv zewola moaxdina danazogebze da, Sesa-bamisad, mimdinare angariSis gauaresebaze. Cveni Sefasebis mixedviT, kerZo

kreditis gavlena mimdinare angariSis balansze sagrZnoblad maRalia

(-0.36).

mogexsenebaT, iseTi patara, gaxsnili ekonomikisTvis, rogoric

saqarTveloa ucxouri rezervebis dagroveba metad mniSvnelovania.

rezervebis akumulirebis gavlena (dadebiTi an uaryofiTi) mimdinare

angariSis balanze damokidebulia imaze, Tu ra rols iTamaSebs ucxouri

rezervebi gacvliT kursze. Cveni Sefaseba aCvenebs ucxouri rezervebis

dadebiT gavlenas mimdinare angariSis balansze (akavebs mimdinare

angariSis deficitis zrdas). ucxouri rezervebisagan gansxvavebiT, pir-

dapiri ucxouri investiciebi aCvenebs uaryofiT damokidebulebas mim-

dinare angariSis balansze (yvelaze maRali standartizirebuli koefi-

cienti: -0.49), romelic SeiZleba aixsnas imiT, rom saqarTveloSi ganxor-

cielebuli pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis udidesi nawili arasavaWro

seqtorSi miemarTeba da ZiriTadad importirebuli saqonlis SesyidviT

gaiwoveba. rac Seexeba mTavrobis danaxarjebis uaryofiT koeficients (-

0.16), aRniSnuli kargad xsnis mimdinare angariSis deficitis zrdas 2005-2008

wlebSi, roca fiskaluri deficiti TandaTanobiT izrdeboda.

dabolos, sxva maCeneblebis mcire gavlenis miuxedavad, statiaSi

mocemuli analizi warmoadgens mniSvnelovan wyaros gadawyvetilebis

miRebis procesSi, raTa qveyanaSi politikis gatarebisas mxedvelobaSi

iqnas miRebuli is ZiriTadi faqtorebi, romelTa arasasurvelma cvlilebam

SeiZleba gazardos danazog-investiciebs Soris gansxvaveba da xeli

SeuSalos ekonomikur zrda-ganviTarebas.

85


magistrantebisa da doqtorantebis samecniero naSromebiSCIENTIFIC WORKS OF UNDERGRADUATES AND DOCTORAL STUDENTS

Tengiz TaqTaqiSvili

ivane javaxiSvilis saxelobisTbilisis saxelmwifo universitetis

ekonomikisa da biznesis fakultetis doqtoranti

agraruli seqtoris subsidirebis miznebi da formebi

reziume

naSromSi mimoxilulia agraruli seqtoris subsidirebis Ziri-Tadi miznebi da misi yvelaze ufro gavrcelebuli formebi. gaanali-

zebulia soflis meurneobis ganviTarebaSi saxelmwifos Carevis Ziri-

Tadi mizezebi da ekonomikuri safuZveli. ganxilulia sxvadasxva eko-nomikuri skolis damokidebuleba agraruli sferos subsidirebis mi-

marT. gaanalizebulia agraruli sferos subsidirebis politikis prio-

ritetebi da soflis meurneobaSi mwarmoeblurobisa da dasaqmebis

zrdisken mimarTuli RonisZiebebi.

sakvanZo sityvebi: agraruli seqtori, subsidia, ekonomikuri politika,fermeruli meurneoba, warmoeba.

Sesavali

soflis meurneobaSi Tanamedrove teqnologiebis danergvis

kvalobaze dargSi moRvawe meurneobaTa efeqtianoba mudmivad izrdeba.

ganviTarebuli qveynebis fermerul meurneobebs, rogorc wesi, ufro

meti finansuri da materialuri SesaZlebloba aqvT, rom saqmianoba

warmoebis Tanamedrove meTodebis gamoyenebiT ganaxorcielon. saqarT-

velos msgavs qveynebSi ki wvrili fermeruli meurneobebi saxelmwifo

mxardaWeris gareSe ver axerxeben uaxlesi teqnologiebis aTvisebas.

Sesabamisad, izrdeba zewola saxelmwifoze, raTa daexmaros agrarul

sferoSi moqmed meurneobebs.

soflis meurneobis mxardamWeri politika xSir SemTxvevaSi

mcire saojaxo meurneobebis daxmarebis mizniT xorcieldeba. mcire

meurneoba produqcias garkveuli raodenobiT awarmoebs da yidis

konkretul fasad. bazarze mimdinare iseTi movlenebi, rac iwvevs fasis

Semcirebas, gansakuTrebiT did zians ayenebs mcire fermerul meur-

neobebs. radgan saqarTveloSi arsebuli mevenaxeebis udidesi nawili

SeiZleba ganixilos rogorc mcire meurneobis mqoneni, naTeli xdeba,

Tu ra mZimed moqmedebs yurZnis fasis kleba mTlianad dargis ganvi-

Tarebaze. rogorc wesi, aseT dros iwyeba zewola mTavrobaze, raTa man

ganaxorcielos mcire meurneobebis Semosavlebis mxardamWeri politika

86


imisaTvis, rom uzrunvelyos fasis SemcirebiT gamowveuli danakargebis

sruli an nawilobrivi anazRaureba meurneobebisTvis. swored am mizniT

daiwyo saqarTveloSi yurZnis fasis mxardamWeri politikis gatareba.

Tavisufali bazari TavisTavad uzrunvelyofs did upirateso-

bebs ekonomikuri saqmianobis organizebisTvis. amis miuxedavd, saxelmwi-

fos zogjer uwevs e.w. „bazris Cavardnis“ gamosworeba da makoreqti-

rebeli qmedebebis ganxorcieleba. Tavisufali bazris pirobebSi xSirad

xdeba, rom wvrili fermeruli meurneoba wamgebian situaciaSia msxvil

konkurentebTan urTierTqmedebisas. aseT dros saxelmwifo, aanalizebs

ra Seqmnili problemis sirTules da wamgebian situaciaSi myofi meur-

neobebis mniSvnelobas, iRebs zomebs maT mxardasaWerad.

* * *nebismieri formis ekonomikuri Careva miznad isaxavs mTlianad

ekonomikaSi an mis konkretul dargSi arsebuli mdgomareobis gaumjo-

besebas, resursebis an Semosavlebis gansxvavebul gadanawilebas, mosax-

leobis konkretuli jgufis keTildReobis gaumjobesebas da a.S.

ekonomikuri politika gavlenas axdens ekonomikuri aqtivobis

donesa da struqturaze. saxelmwifos mxridan intervencia xorcieldeba

im Sedegis miRebis mizniT, rac, Sesabamisi saxelmwifo organoebis

azriT, iqneba ukeTesi, vidre Caurevlobis SemTxvevaSi iqneboda. SesaZ-

lebelia es „ukeTesi“ ganisazRvros araekonomikuri kriteriumis mixed-

viT (magaliTad, warmateba arCevnebSi), magram aucilebelia misi Sefa-

seba ekonomikuri aspeqtiT [Colman D., Young T., 1989].sasoflo-sameurneo politika moicavs sxvadasxva mimarTulebas:

soflis ganviTarebis politika, garemosdacviTi politika, SromiTi po-

litika, sagadasaxado politika, savaWro politika da a.S. [Skovager J. M.,Zobbe H., 2007].

yvelaze gavrcelebuli mosazreba sasoflo-sameurneo subsidie-

bis mxardasaWerad isaa, rom saWiroa fermerul meurneobaTa Semosavle-

bis dacva da gazrda [Winters A. L., 1987].agraruli sferos regulirebisken saxelmwifos SeiZleba ubiZgos

iseTma ekonomikurma, socialurma Tu politkurma miznebma, rogoricaa:

- adgilobrivi agraruli warmoebis ganviTareba da importze

damokidebulebis Semcireba;

- resursebis gadaadgileba saWiro mimarTulebiT, rogorc wesi,

CamorCenili dargebis gansaviTareblad;

- mosavlis dazRvevaSi saxelmwifos Tanamonawileoba, raTa

mcireSemosavlian meurneobebs aacilos stiqiisgan miyenebuli

zarali;

- uTanasworobis Semcireba soflad da qalaqad mcxovrebTa

Semosavlebsa da keTildReobaSi;

87


- moxmarebis stimulireba mosaxleobis naklebad SeZlebul

fenebSi maTi myidvelobiTunarianobis gazrdis gziT;

- agrosasursaTo warmoebis im dargis mxardaWera, romelic

didi odenobiT qmnis samuSao adgilebsa da damatebul Rire-

bulebas;

- regionSi biznesis ganviTarebis SesaZleblobebis Seqmnis

gziT soflidan qalaqad migraciis SeCereba;

- warmoebis im faqtorebis gamoyenebis waxaliseba, romlebic

nakleb zians ayenebs garemos;

- saxelmwifos kuTvnili sawarmoebis dafinanseba;

- Warbi produqciis aTviseba da mwarmoebelTa danakargebis

Tavidan acileba;

- mxardaWera im axali industriebisTvis, romlebic perspeq-

tiulad miiCneva;

- qveynis maRalmTiani an CamorCenili regionebis ganviTareba da

a.S.

„sasoflo-sameurneo subsidia SeiZleba ganisazRvros, rogorc

saxelmwifos nebismieri Careva, romelic agraruli produqtis fass,

fermeruli meurneobis Semosavals gansxvavebuls gaxdis imisgan, rac

iqneboda intervenciis ararsebobis SemTxvevaSi“ [Peterson E. Wesley F.,2009:12].

subsidirebis ekonomikuri safuZvelia ekonomikuri efeqtianoba,

anu bazris Cavardnis gamosworeba da gadanawilebiTi efeqti anu samar-

Tlianobis miRweva [Lister N. M., 2011:15]. subsidiebis saSualebiT unda

amaRldes fermerebis mwarmoebluroba, gaizardos maTi Semosavlebi da

gaumjobesdes maTi konkurentunarianoba bazarze.

ganviTarebadi qveynebis fermeruli meurneobebi xSirad awarmoe-

ben im raodenobis produqcias, rom misi gayidvidan miRebuli Semosava-

li Zlivs faravs sawarmoo xarjebs da sakmarisi ar aris meurneobis

samomxmareblo xarjebis dasafarad. am SemTxvevaSi subsidiebi damate-

biTi Semosavlis wyaroa aseTi meurneobebisTvis. es aris is Semosavali,

rasac maTTvis ver uzrunvelyofs bazari.

subsidirebis ZiriTad mizezad yvelaze xSirad saxeldeba is,

rom mTavrobisgan garkveuli finansuri mxardaWeris gareSe adgilob-

rivi firmebi ver gauweven konkurencias importirebul produqcias.

subsidiebis gauqmeba gazrdis naprals sofelsa da qalaqSi mcxovrebi

adamianebis Semosavlebs Soris da fermerebs ubiZgebs sakuTari miwebis

mitovebisa da sacxovreblad qalaqSi gadasvlisken. soflis meurneobaSi

dasaqmebulTa raodenobis da erovnuli warmoebis Semcireba ar aris

sasurveli, radgan is zrdis umuSevrobas da qveyanas ufro metad da-

mokidebuls xdis ucxour produqciaze. qveyana, romelic didwiladaa

damokidebuli importirebul produqciaze, SesaZloa didi riskis

88


winaSe aRmoCndes globaluri sasursaTo krizisisa da sursaTze mzardi

msoflio fasebis pirobebSi.

arsebobs ori urTierTsawinaaRmdego mosazreba sasoflo-sameur-

neo subsidiebis Sesaxeb. savaWro liberalizaciis procesis kvalobaze

zogierTi mkvlevari aqcents akeTebs imaze, rom subsidiebi amaxinjebs

sabazro procesebs. am mizniT bevrma qveyanam daiwyo iseTi subsidiebis

gacema, romlebic ar aris dakavSirebuli warmoebis moculobasTan. amis

miuxedavad, zogierTi naSromis Tanaxmad, warmoebis moculobisgan ga-

moyofili subsidiebic axdens zemoqmedebas sawarmoo gadawyvetilebebsa

da fermebis mwarmoeblurobaze. meore mxriv, msoflio bazrebze

mimdinare procesebi, romlebic xels uwyobs sursaTze fasebis mer-

yeobas msoflio masStabiT da sasursaTo usafrTxoebasTan dakavSi-

rebiT SeSfoTebas iwvevs ganviTarebad qveynebSi, ganapirobebs sasoflo-

sameurneo subsidiebis momxreTa aqtiurobas, romlebic mxars uWeren

dargSi investiciebis mastimulirebeli subsidirebis politikis ganxor-

cielebas [Rizov M., Pokrivcak J., Ciaian P., 2013].neoklasikosebi da neoliberalebi, rogorc wesi, subsidiebis

gamoyenebis winaaRmdeg gamodian, radgan Tvlian, rom subsidiebi xels

uSlis sabazro Zalebis Tavisufal moqmedebas. isini Tvlian, rom

resursebi unda gadaadgildebodes momgebiani seqtorebis mimarTulebiT

da Tu, magaliTad, fermers ar SeuZlia warmoebis faqtorebis SeZena,

saxelmwifo mas ar unda daexmaros. ukeTesi iqneba, Tu aseTi fermeri

dasaqmdeba sxva romelime meurneobaSi nacvlad imisa, rom gaaCndes

sakuTari araefeqtiani warmoeba.

aucileblad unda aRiniSnos, rom arsebobs garkveuli forsma-

Joruli situaciebi, rodesac agraruli seqtoris esa Tu is dargi seri-

ozul dartymas iRebs da saxelmwifos mxridan mxardaWeras saWiroebs.

aseTi SemTxveva iyo 2006 wels, rodesac ruseTis federaciam daawesa

embargo qarTul produqciaze. am periodSi qarTuli Rvinis eqsportis

80 procenti modioda am qveyanaze da, rusul bazarze damokidebule-

bidan gamomdinare, mevenaxeoba-meRvineobis dargi aRmoCnda urTulesi

problemis winaSe. saxeze iyo Warbi miwodeba, romlis asaTviseblad

bazari ar arsebobda. aseT pirobebSi gasakviri ar aris, rom mniSvne-

lovnad daeca yurZnis fasi. gansakuTrebiT rTul mdgomareobaSi aR-

moCndnen is mevenaxeebi, romelTac garkveuli grZelvadiani gegmebi

gaaCndaT da mniSvnelovani investiciebi hqondaT ganxorcielebuli saku-

Tar venaxSi.

vfiqrobT, dargis subsidirebis da, zogadad, saxelmwifos mxri-

dan misi sxvadasxva formiT daxmarebis mizanSewonilobaze saubrisas

msgavsi forsmaJoruli situaciebi gaTvaliswinebuli unda iyos.

soflis meurneobis mxardamWeri politika xSir SemTxvevaSi mci-

re saojaxo meurneobebis daxmarebis mizniT xorcieldeba. mcire meur-

neoba produqcias awarmoebs garkveuli raodenobiT da yidis mas konk-

retul fasad. bazarze mimdinare iseTi movlenebi, rac fasis Semcirebas

89


iwvevs, gansakuTrebiT did zians ayenebs mcire fermerul meurneobebs.

radganac saqarTveloSi arsebuli mevenaxeebis udidesi nawili SeiZleba

ganixilos rogorc mcire meurneobis mqoneni, naTeli xdeba, Tu ra

mZimed moqmedebs yurZnis fasis kleba mTlianad dargis ganviTarebaze.

rogorc wesi, aseT dros iwyeba zewola mTavrobaze, raTa man ganaxor-

cielos mcire meurneobebis Semosavlebis mxardamWeri politika imisaT-

vis, rom uzrunvelyos fasis SemcirebiT gamowveuli danakargebis sru-

li an nawilobrivi anazRaureba meurneobebisTvis. swored am mizniT

daiwyo saqarTveloSi yurZnis fasis mxardamWeri politikis gatareba.

msgavsi politikis mizania, uzrunvelyos maRali fasis SenarCu-

neba da ar dauSvas mcire meurneobebis bazridan gasvla, rac, rogorc

wesi, politikuradac momgebiani svlaa.

mas Semdeg, rac saxelmwifo gadawyvets, ganaxorcielos ama Tu im

dargis subsidireba, man unda gansazRvros subsidirebis romeli forma

iqneba yvelaze optimaluri mocemul situaciaSi.

sasoflo-sameurneo RirebulebaTa jaWvSi subsidiebi SeiZleba

mimarTuli iyos nebismieri rgolisken – warmoeba, miwodeba, transpor-

tireba, moxmareba da a.S. subsidias SeiZleba hqondes naRdi fulis, vau-

Ceris, transportis da kidev sxvadasxva saxe. produqtis fasis mxar-

daWeris efeqti unda iyos saojaxo meurneobaTa Semosavlebis da Sesa-

bamisad, maT mier warmoebuli produqciis raodenobis zrda [Lister N. M.,2011].

saxelmwifo mxardaWeris erT-erTi formaa fasebis regulireba.

xSirad agrarul produqciaze arsebuli fasi sakmaod dabalia, rac

wamgebian mdgomareobaSi ayenebs meurneobebs. am dros saxelmwifo, ro-

gorc wesi, miznad isaxavs araxelsayrel mdgomareobaSi myofi mwar-

moeblebis an momxmareblebis jgufis mxardaWeras. fasis regulirebisas

saxelmwifom SeiZleba daewesos misi ori zRvari _ zeda da qveda.

fasis zeda zRvari wesdeba maSin, rodesac wonasworuli sabazro

fasi miiCneva, rogorc Zalian maRali da iTvleba, rom misi SenarCunebis

pirobebSi sazogadoebis garkveuli jgufebi Zalian araxelsayrel

mdgomareobaSi aRmoCndebian. amis sapirispirod, fasebis qveda zRvari

wesdeba maSin, rodesac arsebuli wonasworuli fasi miiCneva, rogorc

Zalian dabali.

gamoiyofa Semdegi ZiriTadi saxis instrumentebi: subsidiebi

warmoebis faqtorebze, subsidiebi sursaTze momxmareblebisTvis, Semav-

sebeli gadaxdebi, gadasaxadebi importze da saxelmwifos mier produq-

ciis Sesyidva. analizis simartivisTvis vuSvebT, rom qveyana, sadac

xdeba am instrumentebis gamoyeneba, aris mcire Ria ekonomikis mqone,

romelsac aranairi gavlena ar aqvs produqtis msoflio fasebze

[Colman D., Young T., 1989].Tu subsidia ar aris mibmuli warmoebis moculobaze da meur-

neoba, davuSvaT, iRebs konkretul fiqsirebul Tanxas nakveTis farTo-

90


bis mixedviT, misi sawarmoo gadawyvetilebebi ufro metad sabazro

signalebzea damokidebuli.

mxardaWeris programa iTvleba warmoebis moculobaze mibmulad,

Tu arsebobs am programis pirdapiri kavSiri fermeruli meurneobis

warmoebasa da bazris pirobebTan (magaliTad, fasebi). aseT programebs

potenciurad yvelaze meti gavlenis moxdena SeuZlia sasoflo-sameur-

neo warmoebasa da agraruli produqciis bazrebze [Westcott P. C., Young E.C., 2004].

amis sapirispirod, warmoebisgan damoukidebeli subsidiebi aris

fiqsirebuli transfertebi, romlebic ar aris damokidebuli fermerTa

sawarmoo arCevanze, warmoebis moculobas an bazris pirobebze. aseTi

programebi ar axdens sawarmoo aqtivobebis an warmoebis faqtorebis

subsidirebas. aseTi programebi ar cvlis ukugebas produqciis erTe-

ulze da ar axdens gavlenas sawarmoo gadawyvetilebebze. miuxedavad

amisa, radganac warmoebis moculobisgan gamoyofili subsidiebi zrdis

fermerul meurneobaTa mTlian Semosavals da ekonomikur keTildReo-bas, adgili aqvs arapirdapir gavlenas warmoebaze keTildReobisa da

sxva efeqtebis gziT [Westcott P. C., Young E. C., 2004].agraruli sferos mxardaWeris kidev erTi gzaa saxelmwifos

mier kvlevebis dafinanseba da inovaciebis mxardaWera, rasac unda mohy-

ves mwarmoeblurobis zrda am sferoSi.

daskvna

agraruli sferos mxardaWeris zemoCamoTvlili RonisZiebebis

garda arsebobs kidev uamravi gza, riTac saxelmwifo exmareba fer-

merul meurneobebs da cdilobs maTi Semosavlebis, mwarmoeblurobis

gazrdasa da zogadad dargis stimulirebas.

soflis meurneobis saxelmwifo regulirebis bevri momxre aRniS-

navs, rom fermeruli meurneobebi dganan bunebrivi riskebis winaSe.

mosavali xSirad ziandeba setyvis, gvalvis da sxva bunebrivi katakliz-

mebis Sedegad, rac agrarul sferoSi dasaqmebulebs ayenebs yvelaze

uares mdgomareobaSi ekonomikis sxva sferoebSi dasaqmebulebTan Seda-

rebiT. Sesabamisad, maTi azriT, saxelmwifos roli metad mniSvnelo-

vania am „usamarTlobis“ aRmofxvrisa da riskebis Semcirebis mimarTu-

lebiT.

saxelmwifos mxridan maregulirebeli politikis ganxorciele-

bisas pirveli nabijia am mosazrebebis Semowmeba, maTi namdvilobis

da/an aqtualurobis gansazRvra. unda Sefasdes ramdenad obieqturia

saxelmwifos Carevis moTxovna da Semdeg unda SemuSavdes Sesabamisi

strategiebi.

ekonomikuri Carevis saxeebi SeiZleba mniSvnelovnad gansxvavde-

bodes erTmaneTisgan. magaliTad, danergvis meqanizmebis TvalsazrisiT

91


zogierTi maTgani pirdapiria da mokle droSi xorcieldeba, zogierTi

ki sakmaod rTulia da saWiroebs bevr Suamavals.

politikis ganxorcielebis formebi damokidebulia arsebul

problemaze, mis sirTulesa da aqtualurobaze, dainteresebul jgu-

febze, saxelmwifos xedvaze am problemis mogvarebasTan dakavSirebiT

da zogadad mis xelT arsebul resursebze.

gamoyenebuli literatura

1. BIS, 2011. Department for Business Innovation & Skills, Guidance on evaluating theimpact of interventions on business.

2. Colman D., Young T., 1989. Principles of Agricultural Economics, Markets andprices in less developed countries Cambridge University Press.

3. Crawford E. W., Jayne T. S., Kelly V. A., 2005. Alternative approaches for promotingfertilizer use in Africa, with particular reference to the role of fertilizer subsidies,Paper, Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University, EastLansing, MI.

4. Henningsen A., Kumbhakar S., Lien G., 2011. Econometric Analysis of the Effects ofSubsidies on Farm Production in Case of Endogenous Input Quantities, Paperprepared for presentation at the EAAE 2011 Congress, ETH Zurich, Zurich,Switzerland.

5. Lister, N. M., Agricultural Subsidies, 2011. Productivity and Rural Assets: The effectof Farmer Input Support Programme (FISP) on small scale farmers in Mwembeshi-Chibombo District of Zambia, International Institute of Social Studies, Hague.

6. Peterson E. Wesley F., 2009. A Billion Dollars a Day: The Economics and Politics ofAgricultural Subsidies.

7. Rizov M., Pokrivcak J., Ciaian P., 2013. CAP Subsidies and the Productivity of EUFarms, working paper, Factor Markets, No. 37.

8. Skovager Jensen M., Zobbe H., 2007. Producer subsidies and decoupling in theEuropean Union and the United States, Case study #10-2 of the program: “Foodpolicy for developing countries: The role of government in the global food system”.

9. Westcott P. C., Young E. C., 2000. Farm Program Effects on Agricultural Production:Coupled and Decoupled Programs, Decoupled Payments in a Changing PolicySetting/AER-838.

10. Winters A. L., 1987. The economic consequences of agricultural support: a survey.

92


Tengiz TaktakishviliPh.D. candidate

Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State UniversityFaculty of Economics and Business

AIMS AND FORMS OF AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIESExpanded summary

Governments in almost all countries intervene in the process of agricultural sectordevelopment. They subsidize farmers, stimulate agricultural productions, try to stabilize priceson agricultural products, establish tariffs and quotas on import, invest in irrigation systems,provide farmers with consultancy service and necessary machinery, subsidize inputs and etc.

In the developed countries farms usually have more financial and material means tooperate using modern production methods. In countries like Georgia small farmers are unableto adopt modern technologies without support from government. Hence pressure on thegovernment increases to support farmers.

Agricultural policy is often directed towards small households who produce smallquantities and aren’t competitive on the market. These households are severely affected byprice reductions and other fluctuations taking place in the field. Because of the fact that themost of grape growers in Georgia are relatively small in size it is clear how reductions in theprice affect on the development of sector. Sometimes, government tries to offset the lossescaused by the low prices and supports their revenues. This was the reason for Georgiangovernment to start price support policy for grapes.

Free market itself provides huge advantages for organizing economic activity. In spiteof this, country sometimes try to improve situation after “market failure” and makes correctivemeasures. When competing on a free market small farms are not competitive relative to largeproducers. If government considers these small farms as important it tries to support them.

“Agricultural subsidy can be defined as any intervention from the government thatmakes price of agricultural product different from what it would be when the interventiondoesn’t exist” [Peterson E. Wesley F., 2009:12].

Economic rationale of subsidy is economic efficiency, i.e. improving the situationafter market failure and allocation effect, i.e. achieving justice [Lister N. M., 2011]. Subsidiesare supposed to increase farmers’ productivities, their revenues and competitiveness on market.

There can be number of reasons triggering support policy from the government. Thesereasons are:

- Development of national agricultural production and reducing dependence onimport;

- Resource allocation usually towards the less developed areas;- Government participation in crop insurance in order to avoid losses in the sector

due to the adverse weather conditions;- Filling the gap between the revenues and wealth of population in rural and urban

areas;- Consumption stimulation by increasing purchasing power;- Avoid migration from rural areas to the cities and etc.

93


One of the reason that is often stated to support agricultural policy is that withoutsome financial support from the government local farmers would not be able to compete withimporters. Without subsidies the gap between the revenues of people living in rural and urbanareas will increase and farmers will start to leave their homes and go to the cities for living.

Decrease in the number of people living in the rural areas and national productionlevels are often considered as unwanted scenario by the government, because it contributes tothe increase in unemployment and makes the country dependent on imported products that inturn is a risk of being affected by global food crisis and high global prices.

One form of the government support is price regulation. Often the prices ofagricultural products are very low that brings farmers in unfavorable conditions. Whileregulating prices government can choose two goals – maximum prices and minimum prices.

Minimum price is set when the equilibrium price is considered to be very high and incase of its presence for a long time some groups of society will be brought in very unfavorablesituations. Maximum price is set on the markets where the equilibrium price is considered to bevery low.

Several policy instruments are often used: subsidies on inputs, subsidies forconsumers, taxes on import, state procurement and etc. For analysis purpose we assume thatthe country where these instruments are used is small open economy that has no impact on theworld prices on product [Colman D., Young T., 1989].

There are to general types of subsidies – linked with the levels of production (coupled)and with no relation to the production levels (decoupled). If subsidy is decoupled and farm isgiven fixed amount of money based on the area of land its production decisions are dependtotally on market signals.

Agricultural program is coupled if it is directly associated with production volume.These programs potentially have more effects on agricultural production and agriculturalproduct markets [Westcott P. C., Young E. C., 2004].

Decoupled subsidies are fixed transfers that are not dependent on production choices,volume or market conditions. These programs don’t subsidize production activities or inputs.They don’t affect earnings per unit. In spite of this, decoupled subsidies increase farms’ totalrevenues and economic wealth [Westcott P. C., Young E. C., 2004].

Another way of supporting agriculture is funding of researches and innovations thatshould increase productivity growth in this field.

Ways of economic interventions can be totally different from each other. For example,in the sense of implementation some of them are direct and is accomplished in a short term,some of them is quite complicated and needs many intermediaries.

Policy forms depend on existing problem, its complexity and topicality, groups ofinterest, government’s view towards this problem and in general on its resources.

94


Rvawlmosili mecnieri-ekonomisti da saxelmwifo moRvawe

profesor revaz kakulias dabadebidan 80 weli Seusrulda

cnobil qarTvel mecnier-ekonomists da saxelmwifo moRvawes,

ekonomikis mecnierebaTa doqtors, profesor revaz kakulias dabadebidan

80 weli Seusrulda. misi xangrZlivi cxovreba da saqmianoba saxelmwifo

Tu samecniero da pedagogiur asparezze saukeTeso magaliTia imisa, Tu

rogor unda emsaxuro Sens qveyanas da iRvawo misi naTeli momavlisTvis.

revaz kakulias profesiuli kariera ssr kavSiris saxelmwifo bankis

sistemaSi daiwyo. 1959-62 wlebSi igi iyo saxbankis q. Tbilisis kalininis

raionuli ganyofilebis mmarTvelis moadgile. axalgazrda specialisti

male SeniSnes da 1962 wels saqarTvelos komunisturi partiis centraluri

komitetis vaWrobis, sagegmo da safinanso organoebis ganyofilebis

instruqtorad daawinaures.

1972 wels r. kakulia saqarTvelos finansTa ministris moadgile

xdeba. am Tanamdebobaze man sxvadasxva dros (1972-79 da 1986-91 wlebSi) saerTo

jamSi 13 weli imuSava. saministroSi igi uSualod xelmZRvanelobda iseT

urTules mimarTulebebs, rogoricaa mrewvelobisa da soflis meurneobis

dafinanseba.

ekonomikis agraruli seqtoris problemebis Rrma codnis gaTva-

liswinebiT 1979 wels r. kakulia jer soflis meurneobis ministris moad-

giled gadaiyvanes, xolo saministros reorganizaciis Semdeg - sasoflo-

sameurneo warmoebis saxelmwifo komitetis Tavmjdomaris moadgiled.

wlebis manZilze am umniSvnelovanes saxelmwifo Tanamdebobebze

muSaobis dros r. kakulia warmoCinda, rogorc maRali rangis profesio-

nali, uaRresad principuli da momTxovni xelmZRvaneli. igi aqtiurad

monawileobda ekonomikuri reformebisa da eqsperimentebis praqtikul

ganxorcielebaSi, gansakuTrebiT agrosamrewvelo kompleqsis dargebSi.

saxelmwifo samsaxurSi didi datvirTvis miuxedavad r. kakulia

mravali aTeuli wlis manZilze intensiurad eweoda samecniero-kvleviT

saqmianobas. igi qarTvel mecnier-ekonomistTa im Taobas gaenekuTvneba,

romelic akademiur asparezze poststalinur epoqaSi - gasuli saukunis

60-iani wlebis pirvel naxevarSi gamovida da moitana Teoriuli da

praqtikuli problemebis axleburi xedva da maTi gadawyvetis Tamami gzebis

Zieba. am Taobis SemarTebas tons aZlevdnen da warmarTavdnen ufrosi da

saSualo Taobis gamoCenili qarTveli ekonomistebi da sazogado moR-

vaweebi: paata guguSvili, vasil CantlaZe, nikoloz qoiava, sergo beraZe,

givi WanuyvaZe, gedevan xelaia da sxvebi. am adamianebTan axlo kolegia-

lurma da megobrulma urTierTobebma bevrad ganapirobes r. kakulias

mecnierul interesTa sfero, romelsac ganekuTvneba ekonomikuri Teoria,

ekonomikur moZRvrebaTa istoria, finansebis Teoria, agraruli da

finansuri ekonomika, sabanko saqme, msoflio finansebi da sxva.

95


praqtikuli saqmianobis paralelurad 1966 wels r. kakuliam daam-

Tavra Tbilisis saxelmwifo universitetis ekonomikuri fakultetis

aspirantura da warmatebiT daicva sakandidato disertacia Temaze `qar-

Tuli ekonomikuri azri fulad-sakredito urTierTobis ganviTarebis

Sesaxeb (1900-1917 wlebi)~. fulis mimoqcevisa da kreditis Sesaxeb XIX

saukunis bolosa da XX saukunis dasawyisSi qarTvel moRvaweTa naaz-

revs r. kakuliam ori monografia miuZRvna, romlebSic ganxilulia i.

WavWavaZis, n. nikolaZis, a. wereTlis, i. maCablis, s. mesxis, n. Jordanias,

f. maxaraZis, f. gogiCaiSvilis da sxvaTa finansur-ekonomikuri Sexedu-

lebebis evolucia. amave konteqstSi r. kakuliam sagangebod Seiswavla

agreTve didi qarTveli mwerlis m. javaxiSvilis, sazogadoebisTvis

manamde naklebad cnobili, ekonomikuri publicistika.

ekonomikuri Teoriis, maT Soris, keinzianizmisa da neoliberalizmis

Teoriuli safuZvlebis codna saSualebas aZlevda r. kakulias Tavi

daeRwia stereotipuli fsevdo marqsistuli midgomebisgan da saqarTvelos

ekonomikuri interesebidan gamomdinare, arsebuli arasabazro sameurneo

meqanizmis gardaqmnis aratradiciuli gzebi eZebna. 70-ian wlebSi r.

kakuliam intensiurad daiwyo warmoebis efeqtianobis amaRlebis finansuri

berketebis kvleva. saqarTvelos finansTa ministris moadgileoba mas erTi

mxriv, unikaluri statistikuri da faqtobrivi informaciis wvdomis, xolo

meore mxriv, kvlevis Sedegebis safuZvelze finansur-ekonomikuri

eqsperimentebis inicirebis saSualebas aZlevda.

1978 wels gamocemul monografiaSi r. kakuliam daasabuTa saxelmwi-

fo sawarmoTa sameurneo angariSianobis gafarToebisa da maTi TviTda-

finansebaze gadayvanis SesaZlebloba da am mizniT faswarmoqmnis arsebuli

sistemis reformis aucilebloba.

70-80-iani wlebis mijnaze r. kakulias samecniero saqmianoba ZiriTa-

dad agraruli ekonomikisa da agraruli finansebis sakiTxebze iqna

koncentrirebuli, rac mniSvnelovanwilad misi soflis meurneobis

ministris moadgiled gadayvanasTan iyo dakavSirebuli.

sabWoTa kavSiris centralizebuli gegmiani ekonomikis pirobebSi r.

kakulias xelmZRvanelobiT SemuSavda da dainerga saqarTvelos sasoflo-

sameurneo sawarmoTa rentabelobis amaRlebis konkretul RonisZiebaTa

sistema, romelic arsebiTad scildeboda gegmiani ekonomikis CarCoebs. am

mimarTulebiT kvlevis Sedegebidan aRsaniSnavia sasoflo-sameurneo

sawarmoTa rentabelobis doneTa gamoTanabrebisaTvis Sida respublikuri

dotaciis formirebis meqanizmisa da sazogadoebriv meurneobebs Soris

wminda Semosavlis gadanawilebis axali sistemis Camoyalibeba.

agrarul sawarmoTa finansuri mdgomareobis ganmtkicebis mimarTu-

lebiT Catarebuli kvlevis Sedegebi 1988 wels calke monografiis

saxiT gamoica. am monografiaSi gamoTqmuli mosazrebebis nawili sabWoTa

sistemis rRvevis procesSi Seqmnili axali realiebis gaTvaliswinebiT

aisaxa revaz kakulias sadoqtoro disertaciaSi, romelic 1993 wlis 27

96


ianvars warmatebiT daicva ivane javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis

saxelmwifo universitetSi da mieniWa ekonomikis mecnierebaTa doqto-

ris xarisxi. 1996 wels r. kakulias mieniWa profesoris wodeba.

sabWoTa kavSiris daSlisa da sabazro ekonomikaze gardamavali

periodis dasawyisidanve r. kakulia mtkiced uWerda mxars ekonomikaSi

saxelmwifos aqtiuri rolis koncefcias, rac arsebiTad mis keinzur

Teoriul platformaze dadgomas moaswavebda. `sabazro ekonomika, misTvis

damaxasiaTebeli TviTregulirebis maRali donis miuxedavad, werda igi,

misi subieqtebis funqcionirebaze mizanmimarTul zemoqmedebas moiTxovs

saxelmwifo maregulirebeli meqanizmebis saSualebiT~.

profesor r. kakulias samecniero-kvleviTi saqmianobaSi axali eta-

pi daiwyo 1991 wels, rodesac igi saqarTvelos ekonomikis da finansTa

saministros ekonomikuri da socialuri ganviTarebis samecniero-kvle-

viTi institutis direqtoris moadgiled dainiSna samecniero nawilSi.

am mdidari tradiciebis mqone samecniero dawesebulebaSi r. kakuliam

12 weli imuSava. institutSi igi uSualod xelmZRvanelobda fulad-

sakredito politikis prioritetebis gansazRvrasTan, erovnuli ekono-

mikis usafrTxoebis koncefciis SemuSavebasTan, ekonomikis indikatur

dagegmvasTan, axali sabiujeto sistemis formirebasTan da sabanko

seqtoris ganviTarebasTan dakavSirebul kvleviT proeqtebs.

90-iani wlebis dasawyisSi profesor r. kakulias kvleviTi saqmia-

nobis erT-erT wamyvan mimarTulebad iqca saqarTvelos fulad-sakredito

politikis ZiriTadi mimarTulebebis da misi ganxorcielebis gzebis

Zieba, rac ganpirobebuli iyo sabWoTa kavSiris erTiani finansur-

ekonomikuri sivrcis rRvevis Semdeg saqarTveloSi ganviTarebuli hiper-

inflaciuri procesebiT da maTi umokles vadebSi gadalaxvis auci-

leblobiT. r. kakuliam arc amjerad uRalata Tavis mecnierul mrwams,

romlis ZiriTadi principi yovelTvis iyo da aris qveynis ekonomikis winaSe

mdgomi mZafri gamowvevebis Sefaseba da maTze dauyovnebeli reagireba.

fulad-sakredito politikis sferoSi ganxorcielebuli kvlevis Sedegebi

gansaxilvelad waredgina saqarTvelos prezidents, parlamentis Tavmj-

domares, ekonomikisa da finansTa ministrebs da rasakvirvelia erovnul

banks.

mogvianebiT profesori r. kakulia dainteresda qveynis ekonomikuri

usafrTxoebis sakiTxebiT. aqac misi kvleviTi saqmianobis laitmotivi iyo

suverenuli saqarTvelos ekonomikuri sazRvrebis dacva da erovnuli

ekonomikis konkurentunarianobis amaRleba-SenarCuneba mzardi globali-

zaciisa da axali geopolitikuri da geoekonomikuri gamowvevebis fonze.

misi xelmZRvanelobiT SemuSavebuli saqarTvelos ekonomikuri usafrT-

xoebis koncefcia gansaxilvelad waredgina saqarTvelos parlaments.

90-iani wlebis meore naxevarSi da 2000-in wlebSi r. kakulias samec-

niero kvleviTi saqmianobis magistralur mimarTulebas warmoadgenda

qveynis finansuri resursebis formirebis, ganawilebisa da gamoyenebis

97


srulyofa sabazro ekonomikaze gardamaval periodSi. am etapis naSromebSi

igi gansakuTrebuli yuradRebas uTmobda iseTi mwvave problemebis ana-

lizs, rogoricaa:

- saxelmwifo biujetis deficitis maRali done da misi dafi-

nansebis arainflaciuri meTodebis damkvidreba;

- sakuTari sainvesticio resursebis aradamakmayofilebeli mobi-

lizacia da dafinansebis upiratesad ucxour wyaroebze damoki-

debulebis safrTxeebi;

- finansuri bazrebis ganviTarebis dabali done da maTi ganvi-

Tarebis gzebi;

- sagadasaxado kanonmdeblobis da fiskaluri garemos arastabi-

luroba da maTi optimizaciis variantebi;

- regionebisa da TviTmmarTveli erTeulebis ekonomikuri da

socialuri ganviTarebis doneTa gamoTanabrebis uzrunvelsa-

yofad finansuri resursebis realuri wyaroebis moZieba da maT-

ze xangrZlivi vadiT mimagreba.

r. kakuliam Seiswavla msoflios mravali qveynis adgilobrivi

TviTmmarTveli erTeulebis centralur biujetTan urTierTobebis ga-

mocdileba. igi Tvlis, rom aucilebelia saqarTveloSic gamoviyenoT

centralur da regionul biujetebs Soris gadasaxadebis optimaluri

ganawilebis praqtika, romelsac bevr mowinave qveyanaSi mimarTaven. am

konteqstSi r. kakulia saWirod miiCnevs damatebuli Rirebulebis an/da

saSemosavlo gadasaxadisTvis maregulirebeli funqciis dakisrebas. r.

kakulias mier zemoT aRniSnuli problemebis kvlevis Sedegebi Sejamda

fundamentur monografiaSi, romelic 2003 wels gamoica.

bolo 12 welia profesori r. kakulia aqtiurad ikvlevs finansur

ekonomikas, rogorc virtualur ekonomikas. kvlevis am mimarTulebam Tavisi

aqtualuroba daamtkica 2009 wlis globaluri finansuri krizisis dros,

romelic swored virtualuri finansebis globalizaciis Sedegad aris

miCneuli.

mTlianobaSi, xangrZlivi samecniero moRvaweobis ganmavlobaSi r.

kakuliam 200-de samecniero naSromi gamoaqveyna, romelTaganac 10

monografiaa.

r. kakulias samecniero moRvaweobis ganuyofeli nawilia mecnieruli

kadrebis aRzrda. igi yovelTvis cdilobda moswavleebisTvis gaeziarebina

mdidari profesiuli da akademiuri gamocdileba. r. kakulias xelm-

ZRvanelobiT ekonomikis 15 akademiuri doqtori momzadda.

suverenulma saqarTvelom garkveulwilad daafasa profesor r.

kakulias Rvawli, rogorc saxelmwifo samsaxurSi, ise samecniero-

pedagogiur asparezze da 1997 wels igi Rirsebis ordeniT daajildova.

naxevar saukuneze meti gavida mas Semdeg, rac r. kakulia pedagogiur

moRvaweobas Seudga iv. javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis saxelmwifo

universitetSi. Tavdapirvelad ekonomikuri fakultetis ekonomikuri

98


Teoriis (politikuri ekonomiis) kaTedris leqtori iyo, Semdeg man amave

kaTedris docentis Tanamdeboba daikava (naxevar ganakveTze). imJamad r.

kakulia ZiriTadad ekonomikuri Teoriis kurss kiTxulobda. 60-iani wlebis

bolos da 70-iani wlebis dasawyisSi igi araerTgzis iyo am saganSi

saxelmwifo sagamocdo komisiis Tavmjdomare.

gasuli saukunis 90-iani wlebidan r. kakulia SeTavsebiT ikavebs

universitetis ekonomikis da biznesis fakultetis finansebisa da kreditis

kaTedris profesoris Tanamdebobas. am dros igi kiTxulobda finansebis

Teorias da korporaciaTa finansebs (ZiriTadi sagnebi), agreTve finansur

ekonomikas (arCeviTi sagani).

aRsaniSnavia am periodSi r. kakulias mier gamocemuli saxelmZRva-

neloebi, kerZod „finansebis zogadi Teoria“, romelic saqarTvelos

ganaTlebis saministrom daamtkica saxelmZRvanelod finansebisa da

kreditis specialobis studentebisaTvis. es wigni 5-jer gamoica. niSan-

doblivia, rom yoveli axali gamocema eqvemdebareboda safuZvlian

gadamuSavebas da Sevsebas, rac sabiujeto-finansuri sistemis evoluciis

saxelmZRvaneloSi asaxvis aucileblobiT iyo ganpirobebuli.

am saxelmZRvanelos garda r. kakuliam calke da kolegebTan erTad

moamzada da gamosca kidev araerTi saxelmZRvanelo, romlebic moicavs

sabanko seqtorsa da fasiani qaRaldebis bazars, fulis mimoqcevisa da

kreditis Teorias, saerTaSoriso savaluto, finansur da sakredito

urTierTobebs, sagadasaxado saqmes, finansur ekonomikas, sajaro finan-

sebs, korporaciis finansebs, sabanko saqmes, ekonomikuri da finansuri

riskebis marTvas. SeiZleba iTqvas, rom yvela maprofilebeli saxelmZ-

Rvanelo finansebisa da kreditis specialobis studentebisaTvis an

uSualod profesor r. kakulias mier aris Sedgenili, an kidev misi

TanaavtorobiT da saerTo redaqciiT.

mSobliurma universitetma Rirseulad daafasa profesor r. kakulias

Rvawli da 2010 wels Tavisi umaRlesi jildoTi - ivane javaxiSvilis

saxelobis medliT daajildova.

r. kakulia dResac Cveuli SemarTebiT moRvaweobs universitetSi,

rogorc mowveuli profesori. niSandoblivia, rom amJamad igi ekonomikur

moZRvrebaTa istoriis kurss kiTxulobs anu pedagogiur moRvaweobas

ekonomikuri mecnierebis im dargSi eweva, saidanac daiwyo misi akademiuri

kariera.

calke gamosayofia profesor r. kakulias pedagogiuri moRvaweoba q.

quTaisSi. 1995 wels man Seqmna da saTaveSi Caudga (SeTavsebiT) ak. wereTlis

saxelobis quTaisis saxelmwifo universitetis ekonomikis fakultetis

finansebisa da kreditis kaTedras. 10 wlis manZilze r. kakuliam Camoa-

yaliba adgilobrivi specialistebiT dakompleqtebuli konkurentunariani

pedagogiuri koleqtivi, romelic dRemde warmatebiT funqcionirebs.

imavdroulad r. kakulia TanamSromlobs quTaisis samarTlisa da eko-

99


nomikis universitetSi, sadac, Warmagi asakis miuxedavad, dRemde kiTxu-

lobs leqciebs.

bolo ramdenime welia profesori r. kakulia produqtiulad

moRvaweobs saqarTvelos teqnikuri universitetis biznesteqnologiebis

fakultetis biznesis administrirebis departamentis profesorad. aq igi

ZiriTadad magistrantebsa da doqtorantebs ukiTxavs sagadasaxado saqmis

kurss. amJamad misi xelmZRvanelobiT sami doqtoranti amzadebs sadi-

sertacio naSroms.

rodesac profesor r. kakuliaze da mis Rvawlze vsaubrobT ar

SeiZleba ar gavixsenebT is araCveulebrivi adamianebi, romlebmac waruS-

leli kvali datoves mis cnobierebasa da cxovrebaSi. maT Soris uwinares

yovlisa vgulisxmobT mis pedagogebs.

studentobis wlebidan daiwyo r. kakulias axlo urTierToba

akademikos vasil CantlaZesTan, adamianTan, romelic Rirseulad idga

saqarTveloSi finansuri mecnierebis saTaveebTan da aRzarda qarTvel

finansist-ekonomistTa araerTi Taoba. v. CantlaZe yovelTvis gverdSi edga

Tavis mowafes. igi iyo r. kakulias sakandidato disertaciis oficialuri

oponenti, rCeva-darigebas ar aklebda maRal saxelmwifoebriv postebze

muSaobisas Tu sadoqtoro disertaciis Temis SerCevis dros. gadauWar-

beblad SeiZleba iTqvas, rom profesori revaz kakulia Rirseulad

agrZelebs Tavisi didi maswavleblis mier damkvidrebul tradiciebs.

axlo megobruli da samecniero urTierToba akavSirebda profesor r.

kakulias akademikos paata guguSvilTan. batoni paatas keTilganwyoba r.

kakulias mimarT orma faqtorma ganapiroba: jer erTi, r. kakulia misi

erTguli TanamebrZolis da megobris v. CantlaZis rCeuli mowafe iyo;

meore, r. kakuliam sakandidato disertaciis Temad qarTuli ekonomikuri

azrovnebis istoria airCia, sfero, romelSic p. guguSvils epoqaluri

xasiaTis naSromebi hqonda Seqmnili.

profesor r. kakulias maswavleblebs Soris aucileblad unda

davasaxeloT TvalsaCino qarTveli ekonomisti, profesori nikoloz

qoiava, romelic universitetis finansebisa da kreditis kaTedris gamgeobas

produqtiulad uTavsebda jer ekonomikuri fakultetis dekanis, Semdeg ki

universitetis proreqtoris Tanamdebobebs. evropaSi ganaTlebamiRebuli n.

qoiava iyo fulis mimoqcevisa da kreditis ubadlo specialisti, romelmac

didi roli iTamaSa r. kakulias, rogorc am sferos profesionalis

CamoyalibebaSi.

aspiranturaSi swavlis wlebSi, rogorc ukve aRiniSna, r. kakulias

mecnier-xelmZRvaneli iyo profesori sergi beraZe. profesor v. CantlaZis

rekomendaciiT, swored man SesTavaza r. kakulias, mas Semdeg, rac finan-

sebisa da kreditis kaTedris aspiranturaSi misTvis adgilis daSveba ver

moxerxda, swavla ekonomikur moZRvrebaTa istoriis ganxriT gaegrZe-

lebina. manve urCia niWier axalgazrdas disertaciis kvlevis Temad fulisa

da kreditis Sesaxeb qarTvel moRvaweTa manamde naklebad Seswalili

100


Sexedulebebi aerCia. profesor s. beraZis meurveoba r. kakulias mier

sakandidato disertaciis warmatebiT dacviT dagvirgvinda.

r. kakulias megobrebs Soris gansakuTrebiT gamosayofia profesori

givi WanuyvaZe - gamoCenili qarTveli ekonomisti, mecnierebis organi-

zatori, uaRresad ganswavluli da kulturuli adamiani. am uangaro

megobrobas safuZvlad edo saerTo mecnieruli interesebi da adamianuri

miswrafebani, amitomac gauZlo man mraval aTeul wels. dasanania, rom

batoni givi jer kidev axalgazrda - 60 wlis asakSi wavida am qveynidan. Tu

dasavlur ekonomikur Teoriebsa da regulirebis praqtikis sakiTxebSi mis

did ganswavlulobas gaviTvaliswinebT, advili warmosadgenia ramdeni

sikeTis motana SeeZlo g. WanuyvaZes sabazro ekonomikis gzaze damdgari

damoukidebeli saqarTvelosTvis.

g. WanuyvaZe iyo qarTvel mecnier-ekonomistTa erTi didi samegobros

centraluri figura, romelSic r. kakulias garda Sediodnen profesorebi

gedevan xelaia, givi goSaZe, irodion qvaCaxia, igor kravcovi, gaioz

nadiraSvili da sxv. am adamianebma Zalian bevri iRvawes mecnier da praq-

tikos ekonomistTa mravali Taobis aRsazrdelad da mravali saintereso

naSromi Seqmnes, romelTac dResac ar daukargavT Tavisi mecnieruli

faseuloba.

samwuxarod, maTgan mxolod ramdenime, maT Soris batoni revaz

kakulia, ganagrZobs moRvaweobas. dRes misi dabadebidan me-80 saiubileo

TariRs aRvniSnavT, sul male ki Cveni kidev erTi gamorCeuli ekonomistis -

baton gedevan xelaias dabadebidan 90 wlis iubile gviaxlovdeba. ufrosi

megobrebis da kolegebis Rvawlis dafasebiT Cven unda ganvagrZoT sakuTari

da momavali Taobebis dafasebis tradicia.

akademikosi avTandil silagaZe

akademikosi vladimer (lado)

papava

15.09.2016

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Jurnali “ekonomisti”

misamarTi: Tbilisi, 0105, g. qiqoZis q. 14; tel.: 293 34 44; 599 970103.Jurnal “ekonomistSi” statiebis gamoqveynebis wesebi ixileTvebgverdze: ekonomisti.tsu.ge

Journal “Ekonomisti”

Edress: Tbilisi, 0105, Kikodze street, tel. (+995 32) 293 34 44; 599 970103Rules of Publication of articles in the journal “Ekonomisti” see: ekonomisti.tsu.ge

P Tsu paata guguSvilis ekonomikis institutis gamomcemloba

M redaqtori sesili xanjalaZe, nato abesaZe

Publishing House of Paata Gugushvili Institute of Economics of TSU

Redactor Sesili khanjaladze, Nato Abesadze

102

Documents

tomi volume X - PGIE.TSU.GE€¦ · “ekonomisti”, “Ekonomisti” #3,2016 s a r C e v i - C O N T E N T S sazogadoebrivi seqtoris ekonomika – ECONOMY OF SOCIAL SECTOR rozeta