VAD ÄR SÄKERHET ?

Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS


VAD ÄR SÄKERHET ?


FUNCTIONING

WHAT IS SECURITY?

VITAL LIFE SYSTEMS

STABLESUSTAINABLESAFEORDERLY

DYNAMICEVOLVINGRISKINGFREE

YINEXPLOSION

orBURNOUT

STAGNATIONor

CHOKEARLANDA


SOCIAL

POWERDECISION

S

SOCIAL BASE

ECONOMIC BASE

TECHNOL BASE

NATURAL RESOURCES

HABITAT

HUMAN SECURITY

HIGH POLITICS

FLOW SECURITY

ECOSECURITY

WHAT ARE OUR VITAL LIFE SYSTEMS?

Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSWORLD SOCIETY - EARLY GLOBALISING

PREMODERN SOCIETIES

MODERN STATES

GLOBALISING COMMUNITY

0.1 %EXXON-MOBILWALMARTIBMCITIGROUPIKEA

14 %

USAJAPANSINGAPOREHONG KONGSWEDENITALYTAIWAN

5 % SOUTH KOREA(CHINA, INDIA 20%)ESTONIAHUNGARYBRAZIL

10 %THAILANDEGYPT, JORDAN(CHINA, INDIA 40%)

PREMODERN SOCIETIES

5 % RUSSIASYRIA, VENEZUELANORTH KOREA

65 %ANGOLA(CHINA, INDIA 40%)RWANDASUDANZAIRE


10 %

5 %

WORLD SOCIETY - EARLY GLOBALISING

PREMODERN SOCIETIES

MODERN STATES


0.1 %

14 %



PREMODERN SOCIETIES


COOPERATIONGLOBALISERS

COLLISION

IMPLOSION

CHALLENGE

CRIME

REFUGEESMIGRATION

TERRORREGIONALCONFLICT

DISEASETHAILANDEGYPT, JORDAN(CHINA, INDIA 40%)

RUSSIASYRIA, VENEZUELANORTH KOREA

EXXON-MOBILWALMARTIBMCITIGROUPIKEA

SOCIAL ENGINEERING

’9.11’.2001 - ?2014

Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSWORLD SOCIETY - EARLY GLOBALISING

PREMODERN SOCIETIES

MODERN STATES


0.1 %EXXON-MOBILWALMARTIBMCITIGROUPIKEA

14 %



10 %THAILANDEGYPT, JORDAN(CHINA, INDIA 40%)

PREMODERN SOCIETIES

5 % RUSSIASYRIA, VENEZUELANORTH KOREA


ZONE OF REVOLUTION

POWER POLITICS

DECLINE

TRANSNATIONAL PROBLEMSMIGRATIONORGANISED CRIMEREVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENTS

BIG POWERSCORRUPTIONCYBERPENETRATIONECONOMIC POWERMILITARY FORCE

OLD POWERSPOLITICAL EXTREMISMSOCIAL PROBLEMSDECAYING INFRASTRUCTURE


SOCIAL

POWERDECISIONS

SOCIAL BASE

ECONOMIC BASE

TECHNOL BASE

NATURAL RESOURCES

HABITAT

HUMAN SECURITY

HIGH POLITICS

FLOW SECURITY

ECOSECURITY


Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSTRANSNATIONAL NOKIA

18 FACTORIES, 10 COUNTRIES, 84,000 EMPLOYEES

31 R&D CENTRES, 16 COUNTRIES, 37,000 EMPLOYEES

1 HEADQUARTERS, 282 EMPLOYEES

Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSTRANSNATIONAL NOKIA

160 COUNTRY MARKETS, 1.5 BILLION CUSTOMERS



1 HEADQUARTERS, 282 EMPLOYEES

Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSBLUE FLOWS

160 COUNTRY MARKETS, 1.5 BILLION CUSTOMERS



1 HEADQUARTERS, 282 EMPLOYEES BLUE FLOWS - ECONOMIC - TECHNOLOGICAL

Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSFLOWS THREATS

SUSTAINABLESUPPLY

DIRECT POLITICALCHALLENGE-Terrorism- Rogue States

REGIONALINSTABILITY

SECURITYOF SUPPLY

FRICTION- Piracy- Crime- Corruption

PANDEMICEARTHQUAKEVOLCANOESSTORMSSOLAR STORMS

DESIGN (Y2K)MAINTENANCEMANAGEMENT(2008-09)

ATLANTIC ECONOMIC

CRISIS

OILPRICES

PANDEMIC

SYSTEMICSABOTAGE

PRC ECONOMIC

CRISIS

TECHNICALBREAK


VART ÄR VI PÅ VÄG ?

Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSDEEP TRENDS TO 2030

POWERDECISIONS

SOCIAL BASE

ECONOMIC BASE

TECHNOL BASE

NATURAL RESOURCES

HABITAT

GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS

ORGANISED CRIME – REVOLUTION - MIGRATION

INEQUALITY - MISERY - RAGE

GREATER DIVERSITY, LESS CONSENSUS

SATISFIED SOCIETIES

INTEGRATED ELITES

20% RICHGET POORER

20% POORGET RICHER

20% POORSTAGNATE

40% MISERABLESINK DEEPER

FADING’WEST’

MOREMONEY

GREATERTECHNOLOGY

SOCIALTURBULENCE

MORECONNECTED

MORETRANSNATIONAL

STRESSES

RISING’EAST’

ENTRENCHEDALIENATED

NEWACTORS

MOREPOWERMORE

VULNERABLEANTAGONISTICCRIME

MISCHIEFDESIGN

MANAGEMENT

RETURN OFGRAND POLITICS

DEPLETION DEGRADATION DISRUPTION

SCARCITY

TURBULENCE

GLOBAL SOCIAL AND POLITICAL

COLLAPSE

DEPRESSIONOR COLLAPSE

POWER POLITICS, INTERSTATE WAR?

?SCARCITYFOOD PRICESHUNGERCOMPETITION

SCARCITY COMMODITY PRICES LOSS - Oil, water, arable land, fish

TURBULENCE DESSICATION / INUNDATION MIGRATION BLAME

TURBULENCE DISRUPTION – Japan, Volcanic ash COST – Repair, Insure


POWERDECISIONS

SOCIAL BASE

ECONOMIC BASE

TECHNOL BASE

NATURAL RESOURCES

HABITATECOPROTECTIO

N

POWER POLITICS

BARRIER OPS

FLOW SECURITY


POWERDECISIONS

SOCIAL BASE

ECONOMIC BASE

TECHNOL BASE

NATURAL RESOURCES

HABITAT

PANDEMIC


TURBULENCE DISRUPTION - Storms, Volcanic ash COST – Repair, Insure

DESIGNMANAGEMENT

ANTAGONISTICCRIME

MISCHIEF

MEGASABOTAG

E

MISTAKES

AUSTERITY

FLOWWAR


HUR HANTERA HOTEN ?

1. BREDA

2. KOMPLEXA

3. OFÖRUTSEBARA

Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSYESTERDAYS SECURITY HORIZON

POLITICAL

3. INCREASED UNPREDICTABILITY

EXTERNALHARMONY

- One DotYESTERDAY – One Dimension

Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSTODAY’S SECURITY HORIZON

POLITICAL FUNCTIONAL

ECOLOGICAL

THREE DIMENSIONS

EXTERNALHARMONY

DOMESTICHARMONY

ECONOMICBASE

TECHNOLBASE

NATURALRESOURCES

ECOSYSTEM

- Six Dots - Ten Flashpoints

DOMESTICTENSIONS

EXTERNALTENSIONS

DELIBERATEATTACK

INHERENTSTRAIN

ECOSTRESSECOSTRESS

DEPLETION

DEGRADATION

DISRUPTION

DISASTER(unnatural)

- ALL INTERACTING

FASTINFECTIOUSSYNTHETIC

LETHAL

VASTLYINCREASED

UNCERTAINTY

CONCLUSION THREE

FORECASTING +

PLANNING INSUFFICIENT

Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSTHREAT ANALYSIS - DEATH vs. SEVERITY

SEVERITY

EXISTENCE

VITAL

COMFORT

MORAL

LIKELIHOODREMOTE POSSIBLE LIKELY HAPPENING

Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSTHREAT ANALYSIS - DEATH vs. SEVERITY

SEVERITY

EXISTENCE

VITAL

COMFORT

MORAL

LIKELIHOODREMOTE POSSIBLE LIKELY HAPPENING

Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSPRACTICAL CONSEQUENCES

visibility

KNOWN THREATS

FORECAST + COUNTER

PLAN AND MANIPULATESHIELD: DETER, DEFENDTRANSFORM: NEUTRALISE, CONVERT

SURPRISING THREATSREACT + DODGE

AGILITYSPEED, FLEXIBILITY

UNKNOWN THREATSSURVIVE + RECOVER

RESILIENCEELASTIC, ROBUST, REPAIRING

DARWIN


Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSNEW HISTORICAL ERA - WAVES

ABILITY TOMANIPULATE MATTER

TIME

… 8000 BC 1700 2000

GATHER-HUNT

AGRICULTURE

INDUSTRY

INFORMATION

TECHNOLOGICAL WAVES

Alvin Toffler: “The Third Wave.”Thomas Kuhn: “Structure of Scientific Revolutions.”Schumpeter (wavelets of industrial age)

TRANSFORM HUMAN CONDITION


GLOBALISED AGE

GLOBALISATION - DEEP IMPLICATIONS

MODERN ERASHRINKING WORLD

ECOLOGY UNLIMITED, STRONG FINITE, WEAK D + D + D

HUMAN HUGE SMALL INTIMATE CONTACT

TIME SLOW FAST

PRIVACY BROAD - TOP DOWN- LISTS + GATES

NARROW BOTTOM UPTAGS + GRIDSPERVASIVE+INTRUSIVE

LIQUID WORLDECONOMY STATE CENTRED GLOBAL TRANSNATIONALSOCIETIES ROOTED FLOATING

TECHN. INFR. STATE + LOCAL PRIVATE + GLOBALTIME SEGMENTED m-f 9-5 CONTINUOUS 24/7

POWER STATE + STATE + STATE STATE + NEW ACTORS

INFORMATION CONCENTRATED DISPERSED INTERNET


GLOBALISED AGE

GLOBALISATION - NEW SECURITY AGENDA

MODERN ERA

NEW POLITICALFAULT LINES

HORISONTAL

PEER COMPETITION

VERTICAL

ASYMMETRIC TENSIONS

BROADERTHREATS

ONE-DIMENSIONAL- PEER POLITICS

THREE-DIMENSIONAL- ASYMMETRIC POLITICS

- NEW VULNERABILITIES- ECONOMIC BASE- TECHNOLOGICAL BASE

- RISING ECOLOGICAL CRISIS

Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSGLOBAL VILLAGE - EDGE OF REVOLUTION

GNP pc ppp 000 USD

30

25

20

15

10

05

01

GLOBALISED ELITE <1 % DAIMLER-BENZ

NOKIA

RICH GLOBALISING 14 % 947.3

USA

SWITZ, NORWAY

JAPAN

HONG KONGFINLAND

ITALYTAIWAN

SPAINNEW ZEALANDSOUTH KOREA

CHINA, INDIA 10%BRAZIL

LATE MODERN (RTE) 5 % 233.7

RUSSIABELARUS

IRANCHINA, INDIA 10%

EARLY MODERN 15 % 891.0ECUADOR

VENEZUELALIBYA, EGYPT, SYRIA

CHINA, INDIA 80%

PREMODERN 32 %

34 %

1,925.2

2,066.2

ANGOLALAOS

CONGORWANDA

FLOW WORLD

ZONE OF REVOLUTION

ZONE OF CRIPPLING MISERY

POWER POLITICS

BIG POWERSCORRUPTIONCYBERPENETRATIONECONOMIC POWERMILITARY FORCE

OLD POWERSPOLITICAL EXTREMISMSOCIAL PROBLEMSDECAYING INFRASTRUCTURE

TRANSNATIONAL PROBLEMSMIGRATIONORGANISED CRIMEREVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENTS


GLOBAL ECOCRISIS SCARCITY TURBULENCE

GLOBAL POWER POLITICAL TRENDS 2012

DECLINE

DEPARTING

RISING

UNSTABLE

DISASTER

ACTIVATING

GOOD

DETERIORATING

COMPLICATING

DANGEROUS

GROWING

GROWING

GROWING

?

Tomas Ries – ISS / FHS1949 - 2012

LORD ISMAY ON NATO 1949

KEEP RUSSIA OUT,UNITED STATES IN,

AND GERMANY DOWN

SITUATION TODAY

US GOING OUT,RUSSIA GOING UP,

AND EUROPE DOWN


GLOBALISED AGE

GLOBALISATION - NEW SECURITY AGENDA

MODERN ERA

NEW POLITICALFAULT LINES

HORISONTAL

PEER COMPETITION

VERTICAL

ASYMMETRIC TENSIONS

BROADERTHREATS

ONE-DIMENSIONAL- PEER POLITICS

THREE-DIMENSIONAL- ASYMMETRIC POLITICS

- NEW VULNERABILITIES- ECONOMIC BASE- TECHNOLOGICAL BASE

- RISING ECOLOGICAL CRISIS


POWERDECISIONS

SOCIAL BASE

ECONOMIC BASE

TECHNOL BASE

NATURAL RESOURCES

HABITAT

MOREMONEY

GREATERTECHNOLOGY

SOCIALTURBULENCE

MORECONNECTED

MORETRANSNATIONAL

STRESSES

MOREPOWERMORE

VULNERABLE

SCARCITY

TURBULENCE

DEPRESSIONOR COLLAPSE?

SCARCITYFOOD PRICESHUNGERCOMPETITION





INTERSTATEWAR


COLLAPSE


POWERDECISIONS

SOCIAL BASE

ECONOMIC BASE

TECHNOL BASE

NATURAL RESOURCES

HABITAT

20% RICHGET POORER

20% POORGET RICHER

20% POORSTAGNATE


FADING’WEST’

MOREMONEY

GREATERTECHNOLOGY

SOCIALTURBULENCE

MORECONNECTED

MORETRANSNATIONAL

STRESSES

RISING’EAST’

ENTRENCHEDALIENATED

NEWACTORS

MOREPOWERMORE


MISCHIEFDESIGN

MANAGEMENT

RETURN OFGRAND POLITICSGLOBAL SOCIAL

ANDPOLITICAL COLLAPSE


SCARCITY

TURBULENCE

DEEPENINGECOLOGICAL

CRISIS

RESURGINGGLOBAL

POWER POLITICS

POWERFULTOOLS

(ECON – S&T

BUTVULNERABLE

ECOPROTECTION

POWER POLITICS

BARRIER OPS

FLOW SECURITY


BROAD CHALLENGES


1. HOLISTIC

HOW SHOULD WE THINK SECURITY?

2. SYNERGISTIC

3. UNCERTAIN

Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSFOUNDATIONS OF OUR SECURITY

SOCIAL

ELITEPOLITICS

STRUCTURALSTABILITY

FUNCTIONAL

ECONOMICBASE

TECHNOLBASE

ECOLOGICAL

NATURALRESOURCES

HABITAT

Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSDEEP TRENDS

SOCIAL

DOMESTICHARMONY

EXTERNALHARMONY

FUNCTIONAL

ECONOMICBASE

TECHNOLBASE

ECOLOGICAL

NATURALRESOURCES

ECOSYSTEM

FADING’WEST’

RISING’EAST’ENTRENCHED

ALIENATEDNEWACTORS

20% RICHGET POORER

DEPLETION

DEGRADATION

DISRUPTION

20% POORGET RICHER20% POOR

STAGNATE40% MISERABLESINK DEEPER

CYBER STUXNET 2010 NORWAY 2010, ESTONIA 2007

TRANSNATIONAL ORGANISED CRIME REVOLUTION MIGRATION

GRAND POLITICS LESS CONSENSUS POWER POLITICS INTERSTATE WARS

TURBULENCE DISRUPTION – Japan, Volcanic ash COST – Repair, InsureSCARCITY PRICES – Oil, minerals AVAILABILITY – Oil, Water, Arable land, fish

SCARCITY FOOD PRICES HUNGERTURBULENCE DESERTIFICATION REFUGEES

STRUCTURAL GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS GREATER INEQUALITY MISERY , FRUSTRATION

MORECONNECTED

MOREMONEY

GREATERTECHNOLOGY

FUNCTIONAL SATISFIED SOCIETIES INTEGRATED ELITES POWERFUL TOOLS ECOLOGICAL PRICE

KINETIIC 9.11 MADRID LONDON

DESIGN Y2KMANAGEMENT WALL STR 2008-09

MOREPOWER

MORE VULNERABLE

ANTAGONISTICCRIME

MISCHIEF

INHERENT

GLOBALCLASS

TENSIONS

DOMESTICTURBULENCE

ELITEDIVERSITYELITE

INTEGRATIONGLOBAL SOCIAL AND POLITICAL COLLAPSE

SCARCITY TURBULENCE

DEEPENINGECOLOGICAL CRISIS

NEGLECT

PANDEMIC

MEGASABOTAG

E

?


SOCIAL

DOMESTICHARMONY

EXTERNALHARMONY

FUNCTIONAL

ECONOMICBASE

TECHNOLBASE

ECOLOGICAL

NATURALRESOURCES

ECOSYSTEM

FADING’WEST’

RISING’EAST’ENTRENCHED

ALIENATEDNEWACTORS

20% RICHGET POORER

DEPLETION

DEGRADATION

DISRUPTION

20% POORGET RICHER20% POOR

STAGNATE40% MISERABLESINK DEEPER

CYBER STUXNET 2010 NORWAY 2010, ESTONIA 2007






MORECONNECTED

MOREMONEY

GREATERTECHNOLOGY


KINETIIC 9.11 MADRID LONDON

DESIGN Y2KMANAGEMENT WALL STR 2008-09

MOREPOWER

MORE VULNERABLE

INHERENT

GLOBALCLASS

TENSIONS

DOMESTICTURBULENCE

ELITEDIVERSITY ELITE

INTEGRATION

GLOBAL SOCIAL AND POLITICAL COLLAPSE

ANTAGONISTICCRIME

MISCHIEF

SCARCITY TURBULENCE


CONCLUSION ONE

HOLISTIC PERSPECTIVE

NO TUNNEL VISION

Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSEMERGING THREAT ENVIRONMENT

POLITICAL

EXTERNALHARMONY

DOMESTICHARMONY

FUNCTIONAL

ECONOMICBASE

TECHNOLBASE

ECOLOGICAL

NATURALRESOURCES

ECOSYSTEMPANDEMIC

2. INCREASED SYNERGIES - TRANSDIMENSIONAL RICOCHETS

CONCLUSION TWO

SYNERGISTIC PERSPECTIVE

AWARE OF LATERAL LEAPS

INTEGRATED RESPONSE


WHERE ARE WE ?


POLITICAL CHALLENGES


2. WHERE ARE WE NOW?

1. WHAT IS THE MILITARY?

3. WHERE ARE WE GOING?

4. PRIORITIES


CORE HIGH QUALITY VIOLENCE

1.1. MASSIVE VIOLENCE: National Defence HIC (deter, defend)Power Projection HIC (deter,enforce)

1.2. NARROW VIOLENCE: Surgical Violence SUR (hunt+kill, intercept, rescue)Supporting Violence EVA (evacuation)

1.3. RESTRAINED VIOLENCE: Global Social Engineering BOG (PSO, MASD)Policing POL (asset protection, barriers, flows)

DERIVATIVE

2.1. INFLUENCE - PSYCHOLOGICAL SPINOFFS OF MILITARY VIOLENCEDETER: Stick - threaten pain FPS + VIT (policing, show of force)COERCE: Stick - apply pain VIT (gunboat diplomacy)ATTRACT: Carrot - being useful FPS (burden sharing, high tech)

2.2. FUNCTIONAL - IMPROVISED SUPPORT FOR SOCIETYECONOMIC JAS GripenC4SIR: If civil infrastructure damaged (ATC) DEFSECURITY: If civil police overwhelmed (Hurricane Katrina)WORKERS: Organised labour for crises (Katrina, China quake, Oil spills)LOGISTICS: Transport & logistics for emergencies (Nokia, Gudrun)HIGH TECH: Specialised capabilities (Drug interdiction surveillance, etc.)

UNIQUE MILITARY CAPABILITY - NATO SCC 07.08

MILITARY SHOULD NOT DO THIS

- BUT IF NOTHING ELSE IS AROUND...

Katrina, Chinese Earthquake, Gudrun, Nokia +





4. PRIORITIES


STABILISATION AND RECONSTRUCTION IS OVER

HUMAN SECURITYPEACE ENFORCEMENTCOINSTATE BUILDINGCOMPREHENSIVE APPROACHETC

DECAPITATION IS IN

INTERSTATE WAR IS RETURNING





4. PRIORITIES


3.1. NEW MISSIONS


3.2. NEW DOMESTIC PRECONDITIONS


2. DENIAL

1. AUSTERITY


3.3. INCREASED UNCERTAINTY





4. PRIORITIES

Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSGLOBAL POWER POLITICAL SITUATION 2013


UP

UNSTABLE

RISING

Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSGLOBAL POWER POLITICAL SITUATION 2013

UP

DOWN

OUT

GlobalHard

partnerRecession

Military dominanceBut one–

warFocus

Asia

ContinentalHard strangerIncome

Military buildupStrategic nuclearEurostrategic

(Iskander+)Conventional (2012-

2022

Soft grandmother

DeclineMilitary void

Strategic national

Eurostrategic void

Stupid defence


2. VAR ÄR VI NU?

1. VAD ÄR SÄKERHET?

3. FRAMTIDSTRENDER

4. HUR HANTERA EXPLOSIV KOMPLEXITET?

2.1. SOCIALA DIMENSIONEN

2.2. FUNKTIONELLA DIMENSIONEN

2.3. ECOLOGISKA DIMENSIONEN

MANAGING THE BIG PICTURE


2. VAR ÄR VI NU?


3. FRAMTIDSTRENDER







SOCIAL

POWERDECISIONS

SOCIAL BASE

ECONOMIC BASE

TECHNOL BASE

NATURAL RESOURCES

HABITAT

HUMAN SECURITY

HIGH POLITICS

FLOW SECURITY

ECOSECURITY




GLOBAL POWER POLITICAL SITUATION 2007

HEALTHY

HEALTHY+

PRESENT

WEAK

UNSTABLE

DISASTER

VOID BOOMING

GOOD

DETERIORATING

COMPLICATING

DANGEROUS

GROWING

GROWING


LORD ISMAY ON NATO 1949

KEEP RUSSIA OUT,UNITED STATES IN,

AND GERMANY DOWN

SITUATION TODAY

US GOING OUT,RUSSIA GOING UP,

AND EUROPE DOWN


2. VAR ÄR VI NU?


3. FRAMTIDSTRENDER







2. VAR ÄR VI NU?


3. FRAMTIDSTRENDER







SOCIAL

POWERDECISIONS

SOCIAL BASE

ECONOMIC BASE

TECHNOL BASE

NATURAL RESOURCES

HABITAT

HUMAN SECURITY

HIGH POLITICS

FLOW SECURITY

ECOSECURITY



DEPLETIONnon-renewable resources oil, gas, minerals

DEGRADATIONof regional biospheres fish, water, arable land

DISRUPTIONof global ecosystem climate change

THE ECOLOGICAL CRISIS


1. GLOBAL ECOLOGICAL CRISIS WILL CONTINUE TO GROW DEPLETION – OIL, GAS +

DEGRADATION – WATER, ARABLE LAND, FISH +

DISRUPTION – CLIMATE CHANGE, EXTREMES

2. TWO BIG PROBLEMSSCARCITY

TURBULENCE

3. ECOLOGICAL CONCERNS WILL DOMINATE AGENDA MOREDOMESTIC - PAIN AND ANGER – VOTERS AND CONSUMERS

GRAND POLITICS 1 – ECOPROTECTION

GRAND POLITICS 2 – ECOEXPLOITATION

4. LEGITIMACY INCREASINGLY DEFINED IN ECOLOGICAL TERMSSOCIAL CONTRACT = ECOLOGICAL CONTRACT

5. CONFLICTS INCREASINGLY FOCUS ON ECOLOGICAL ISSUESTENSION ECONOMIC GROWTH – SUSTAINED ECOLOGY

CONFLICT SOVEREIGNTY - ECOPROTECTION

ECOSECURITY – TRENDS TO 2020


DEEPENINGCRISIS

THE AGENDA

1. SCIENTIFIC

1.1. UNDERSTANDUNDERSTAND WHAT IS HAPPENINGPROVIDE SIGNIFICANT CONSENSUS – IPCC

1.2. ADAPTDEVELOP RESILIENCE

1.3. SOLVEPROPOSE SOLUTIONSHELP DEVELOP ECOFRIENDLY TECHNOLOGY

2. POLITICAL

2.1. SOFT - MULTILATERAL AGENDADELIMITATION AND OWNERSHIP – UNCLOS IIREGULATE OUR BEHAVIOUR - Kyoto, CopenhagenGOVERNANCE – including of frustration

2.2. ADAPTIVE – SYSTEMIC AGENDAADJUST FUNCTIONAL BASE

3. MILITARY

3.1. GREEN - POLICE AGENDAOVERSEE ECOLOGICAL RULES ENFORCE RULESMANAGE CONFRONTATIONS

3.2.. BLACK – ZERO-SUM AGENDADEFEND ECOLOGICAL ASSETS CONQUER ECOLOGICAL ASSETS


2. VAR ÄR VI NU?


3. FRAMTIDSTRENDER







2. VAR ÄR VI NU?


3. FRAMTIDSTRENDER







MILITARY BUILDUP – EUROSTRATEGIC NUCLEAR + CONVENTIONAL

DOMESTIC INSTABILITY

1. RUSSIAN MILITARY PRESSURE / CONFRONTATION

2. ARCTIC TENSIONS

3. EUROPE DECLINING

WESTPHALIAN WORLDVIEW – ZERO SUM COMPETITION

DICTATORSIP WITH RAW MATERIAL REVENUES

STRATEGIC NUCLEAR – RUSSIAN SSBN FLEET RETURNING

ECONOMIC – CONTROL OVER NATURAL RESOURCES

ECOLOGICAL – A) REGULATION B) CATASTROPHES AND RESPONSIBILITY

NORDIC REGIONAL IMPACT

ECONOMIC DECLINE / COLLAPSE

SOCIAL AND POLITICAL CONSEQUENCE

RUSSIA IS RETURNING

ARCTIC IS ACTIVATING

LIBERAL ORDER FADING

4. GREATER ISOLATIONEU – WEAKER

US – SHIFT TO ASIA

NORDIC-BALTIC MILITARY CRISES

DELIBERATE RUSSIAN HARD PRESSURE

ARCTIC REGULATION

ARCTIC ECOLOGICAL DISASTERS

ARCTIC POL-MIL CRISES

EUROPEAN INSTABILITY

LESS HELP

EUROPEAN WEAKNESS

Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSSECURITY FOCUS 2020

SOCIAL

DOMESTICHARMONY

EXTERNALHARMONY

FUNCTIONAL

ECONOMICBASE

TECHNOLBASE

ECOLOGICAL

NATURALRESOURCES

ECOSYSTEMDEPLETION

DEGRADATION

DISRUPTION






MORECONNECTED

MOREMONEY

GREATERTECHNOLOGY


MOREPOWERMORE

VULNERABLE

DOMESTICTURBULENCE

GLOBALCLASS

TENSIONS

ELITEDIVERSITY

ELITEINTEGRATION

SCARCITY TURBULENCE


SOCIAL - POLITICALGLOBAL COLLAPSE

MEGASABOTAG

E NEGLECT

PANDEMIC

BARRIER OPS

DOMESTIC STABILITY

DECAPITATION OPS

GLOBALPOWER POLITICS

FLOW SECURITY

ECOPROTECTION

ECOCOMPETITION

Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSNEW HISTORICAL ERA - WAVES

ABILITY TOMANIPULATE MATTER

TIME

… 8000 BC 1700 2000

GATHER-HUNT

AGRICULTURE

INDUSTRY

INFORMATION

?

?


FADING DICHOTOMIESPEACE WARDOMESTIC FOREIGNNEAR FARBUSINESS POLITICSCIVIL MILITARYNATIONAL MULTINATIONAL

SHIFTING BORDERS’WEST’ > OECD + RTEPUBLIC > PRIVATESTATE > INDIVIDUALGOVT > NGOPRIVACY > SURVEILLANCELIBERTY > CONTROLNATIONAL > TRANSNATIONAL

PHENOMENOLOGY OF THE LIQUID WORLD


VÅRFRAMTID


DOMESTIC STABILITY

LITTLE POWER POLITICS

TRANSNATIONAL CHALLENGES

SOCIAL DIMENSION 1990 - 2011

GREAT POWER POLITICS

GOOD BAD UGLY

1990END OF

HISTORY

1992BALKANS

1995DAYTON


DOMESTIC STABILITY





GOOD BAD UGLY

1995DAYTON

1990END OF

HISTORY


DOMESTIC STABILITY





GOOD BAD UGLY

1995DAYTON

20019.11

1990END OF

HISTORY


DOMESTIC STABILITY





GOOD BAD UGLY

1995DAYTON

20019.11

1990END OF

HISTORY

2001GLOBAL SOCIAL ENGINEERING


DOMESTIC STABILITY





GOOD BAD UGLY

1995DAYTON

1990END OF

HISTORY



2010IRAQ

AFPAK

20019.11


DOMESTIC STABILITY





GOOD BAD UGLY

1995DAYTON

2010IRAQ

AFPAK

20019.11


DOMESTIC STABILITY





GOOD BAD UGLY

1995DAYTON

2010IRAQ

AFPAK

2007…RUSSIAPRC +

2011…LONDONEU, US…

2011…EU BANKRUPT

20019.11

RETURN OFINTER-STATE WAR?

END OF THELIBERAL AGE?

COLLAPSEOF THE EU?

ASIA

SHADOWWAR

USELESS


BROADER THREATS

PHENOMENOLOGY OF NEW ENVIRONMENT

MORE COMPLEX

MORE ECOTURBULENCE

BROAD - SYNTHETIC - FAST

LESS PREDICTABLE

WHAT WE SEE

WHAT IT MEANS

POORER RICH STATES AGE OF AUSTERITY

LESS NATURAL RESOURCES

SECURITY ENVIRONMENT

DEEP TRENDS

SHRINKING WORLD

ERODING STRUCTURES

HUMAN, ECOLOGICAL

STATE TO TRANSNATIONAL

MORE HUMAN POWER SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ECONOMY – BUT!!

NEW POLITICAL FAULT LINES FROM PEER-PEER TO PEER-PEER-POOR

MORE TENSE

MORE VOLATILE

Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSPHENOMENOLOGY OF NEW ENVIRONMENT

WHAT WE SEE

DECLINING RICH STATES AGE OF AUSTERITY

GLOBAL MEGATRENDS

SHRINKING WORLD

LIQUID WORLD

HUMAN, ECOLOGICAL

STATE TO TRANSNATIONAL

MORE HUMAN POWER SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ECONOMY – BUT!!


Source: Fund for Peace: Failed States Index 2009

Zimbabwe -19.10Nigeria -15.50Pakistan -14.70Somalia -21.40Central African Republic -11.70Chad -11.30 800

Guinea -9.90 Afghanistan -9.20 Kenya -8.70 Sudan -8.30 Burma -8.10 Ethiopia -7.80 Iraq -5.40 Bangladesh -3.80 Dem. Rep. of the Congo -3.40 Haiti -2.60 North Korea -2.60 400

Yemen 1.60 Ivory Coast 3.50 Colombia 5.80 Rwanda 7.50 Liberia 7.70 80

Sierra Leone 10.00 Bosnia 10.20 Venezuela 14.00 Dominican Republic 16.50 Paraguay 16.90 Ukraine 19.10 Morocco 21.80 Bahrain 26.60 80

Change 2005-2008 Pop. (m)

GLOBAL SOCIAL ENGINEERING – LOSING STRATEGY

1,200MILLION

160 MILLION

Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSGLOBAL VILLAGE - EDGE OF REVOLUTION

GNP pc ppp 000 USD

30

25

20

15

10

05

01

GLOBALISED ELITE <1 % DAIMLER-BENZ

NOKIA

RICH GLOBALISING 14 % 947.3

USA

SWITZ, NORWAY

JAPAN

HONG KONGFINLAND

ITALYTAIWAN

SPAINNEW ZEALANDSOUTH KOREA

CHINA, INDIA 10%

LATE MODERN (RTE) 5 % 233.7

CZECH REPESTONIA

BRAZILCHINA, INDIA 10%

EARLY MODERN 15 % 891.0RUSSIA

VENEZUELASYRIA

CHINA, INDIA 80%

PREMODERN 32 %

34 %

1,925.2

2,066.2

ANGOLALAOS

CONGORWANDA

age

78

46

m<5

0.6%

18%

maln

0%

40%

ser

69%

39%

man

25%

9%

ind

7%

14%

agr

2%

39%


POWERDECISIONS

SOCIAL BASE

ECONOMIC BASE

TECHNOL BASE

NATURAL RESOURCES

HABITAT

GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS

ORGANISED CRIME – REVOLUTION - MIGRATION

INEQUALITY - MISERY - RAGE


UNDERSTANDING TOOLS

SATISFIED SOCIETIES

INTEGRATED ELITES

ECOLOGICAL PRICE

20% RICHGET POORER

20% POORGET RICHER

20% POORSTAGNATE


FADING’WEST’

MOREMONEY

GREATERTECHNOLOGY

SOCIALTURBULENCE

MORECONNECTED

MORETRANSNATIONAL

STRESSES

RISING’EAST’

ENTRENCHEDALIENATED

NEWACTORS

MOREPOWERMORE


MISCHIEFDESIGN

MANAGEMENT



SCARCITY

TURBULENCE

SCARCITYFOOD PRICESHUNGERCOMPETITION



COLLAPSE



DEEPENINGECOLOGICAL

CRISIS

RESURGINGGLOBAL

POWER POLITICS

DEPRESSIONOR COLLAPSE

POWERFULTOOLS

(ECON – S&T

BUTVULNERABLE

PANDEMIC

MISTAKES

MEGASABOTAG

E


TOOLS


POWERDECISIONS

SOCIAL BASE

ECONOMIC BASE

TECHNOL BASE

NATURAL RESOURCES

HABITAT

20% RICHGET POORER

20% POORGET RICHER

20% POORSTAGNATE

40% MISERYSINK DEEPER

FADING’WEST’

MOREMONEY

GREATERTECHNOLOGY

MOREPOWERMORE

VULNERABLEANTAGONISTIC

CRIMEMISCHIEF

DESIGNMANAGEMENT


SCARCITY

TURBULENCE

INEQUALITY - MISERY - RAGE SOCIALTURBULENCE

MORECONNECTED

ORGANISED CRIME – REVOLUTION - MIGRATIONMORE

TRANSNATIONAL STRESSES

RISING’EAST’

ENTRENCHEDALIENATED

NEWACTORS



GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS


Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSGREEN FLOWS

Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSTHREE DIMENSIONS OF SECURITY

POLITICAL

EXTERNALHARMONY

DOMESTICHARMONY

FUNCTIONAL

ECONOMICBASE

TECHNOLBASE

ECOLOGICAL

NATURALRESOURCES

ECOSYSTEM

SYNERGY - TRANSDIMENSIONAL RICOCHETS

Friday 11.3 NE Japan9.0 earthquake + tsunami

NE Japan10,000+ dead16,000+ missing350,000 homeless1.4 m hh no water2 m hh no power Fukushima Daiichi (240 km N Tokyo)

- 20% national electr power- 20% Tokyo electr power(Tokyo area =40% nat’l econ output)- W Jap diff electr freq = cannot backupMaj power shortages exp 3-5 months

Radiation80,000 evacuated

Destroyed Infrastructure- est cost 197-310 bn USD(excl economic losses)- 5 years to rebuild

12.3 Financial- Banking system (183 bn USD)- Value of Yen 4% up- Insurance 35bn USD (quake alone)- ATM’s crash (14 hours)

14.3 Production- hobbled to end April- 20% global electronics- cars 17.3 G7 Emerg Summit

- Global currency market

24.3 Tokyo (13m)- bottled water lack

GLOBAL CASCADES- Global supply chain shortages- Export chokes from rad fears- Global financial markets

15.3 EU- Rad adv Jap imp16.3 Volvo PB

- one week

24.3 ExportsUS, EU, Hong Kong, S;pore, Australia, CDA

Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSTHREE DIMENSIONS OF SECURITY

JAPAN11.3 Fri 9.0 Earthquake off NE Japan followed by massive Tsunami

> 10,000 dead, 16,000 missing, 350,000 homeless (24.3), 2m households without power, 1.4m without water80,000 evacuated from Fukushima area, 450,000 evacuated from quake and Tsunami> Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant critically damaged (240 km N of Tokyo)> Tokyo area (40% national economic output) loses 20% electric power (W Jap diff power freq so cannot replace)> 20% national electrical power supply lost. Severe power shortages expected to last 3-5 months

13.3 Jap govt est direct infr damages 197-310 bn USD. (310 bn = 6% Jap GDP) (Libya nfz 4 mnths est 1bn USD)Does not include losses in economic activity from power shortages and impact of Fukushima radiation

Infrastructure reconstruction will take at least 5 years (power, road, rail, ports)Initially est. insurance cost of quake alone (excl tsunami and radiation) 35 bn USD (= total 2010 catastr loss)

14.3 Japan Central Bank lines up 183 bn USD to stabilise banking system.

15.3 Value of Yen spikes 4% against USD, Japanese stock market continues to sink15.3 EU advises members to check radiation levels in imports from Japan15-16.3 US stock market plunges but revives16.3 Wed Japanese ATM’s break down across Japan. All of them function again on Thursday.16.3 Japanese industry warns that power shortages and transport difficulties hobble production to end April

- Japan prod 14% global computers, consumer electronics and communications, 20% semiconductors> pushes up prices for all products globally- cars and subcomponents for other car brands

16.3 Volvo PV reports lack of deliveries from Japan will stop production in one week17.3 G7 emergency meeeting to adress Japanese economy and the global currency market17.3 Explosions continue at Fukushima24.3 Thu Tokyo (pop 13 m) running out of bottled water amid fears tap war radioactive

Milk and vegetables from NE also reported high rad levels.24.3 US, Hong Kong, S:pore, Australia, Canada restrict food imports from Japan24.3 Shipping industry reports some merchant vessels avoiding Tokyo port due to rad concerns

Global Functional Ripple Effects- Japanese production crippled (all 12 Toyota plants shut = 74m USD profits lost p/d)- Global supply chains disrupted- Japanese exports affected by fears of radioactive contamination


WHAT IS THE MILITARY?

CORE FUNCTION AND DERIVED UTILITY


CORE HIGH QUALITY VIOLENCE

1.1. MASSIVE VIOLENCE: National Defence HIC (deter, defend)Power Projection HIC (deter,enforce)

1.2. NARROW VIOLENCE: Surgical Violence SUR (hunt+kill, intercept, rescue)Supporting Violence EVA (evacuation)

1.3. RESTRAINED VIOLENCE: Global Social Engineering BOG (PSO, MASD)Policing POL (asset protection, barriers, flows)

DERIVATIVE

2.1. INFLUENCE - PSYCHOLOGICAL SPINOFFS OF MILITARY VIOLENCEDETER: Stick - threaten pain FPS + VIT (policing, show of force)COERCE: Stick - apply pain VIT (gunboat diplomacy)ATTRACT: Carrot - being useful FPS (burden sharing, high tech)

2.2. FUNCTIONAL - IMPROVISED SUPPORT FOR SOCIETYECONOMIC JAS GripenC4SIR: If civil infrastructure damaged (ATC) DEFSECURITY: If civil police overwhelmed (Hurricane Katrina)ORGANISATION + PERSONNEL: Organised labour for crises (Katrina, China quake, Oil spills)LOGISTICS: Transport & logistics for emergencies (Nokia, Gudrun)HIGH TECH: Specialised capabilities (Drug interdiction surveillance, etc.)

UNIQUE MILITARY CAPABILITY - NATO SCC 07.08

MILITARY SHOULD NOT DO THIS

- BUT IF NOTHING ELSE IS AROUND...

Katrina, Chinese Earthquake, Gudrun, Nokia +

Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSCURRENT SECURITY PRIORITIES

10 %

5 %

PREMODERN SOCIETIES

MODERN STATES


PREMODERN SOCIETIES

0.1 %

14 %

5 %

65 %1. SOCIAL ENGINEERING

2. COUNTER TERRORISM

3. HIC DETERRENCE

4. BARRIER OPS

5. ECOPROTECTION

6. SOCIETAL SUPPORT

7. FLOW SECURITY

Tomas Ries – ISS / FHSTOMORROW’S SECURITY NEEDS

10 %

5 %

PREMODERN SOCIETIES

MODERN STATES


PREMODERN SOCIETIES

0.1 %

14 %

5 %

65 %


GLOBAL DECAPITATION Destroying hostile transnational networksGlobal - Ongoing – Top priority, US and selected partners

BARRIERS Shielding the rich from the global poorRich/Poor fringes - Emerging - Rising need

POWER POLITICS Military confrontations between major statesAsia - Ongoing preparations – Top priority, US and Asian partners

Europe - Ignored – High priority in ten years

FLOW SECURITY Optimising and protecting our functional life systemsGlobal - Emerging – Top priority, all globalisers

ECOSECURITY Policing econorms / Defending or conquering ecoassetsGlobal - Emerging slowly - Top long-term priority

DOMESTIC SECURITY Managing internal social disruption (and decline?)Home - Emerging slowly – Potentially serious priority

SOCIAL ENGINEERING Reforming the poor worldGlobal - Phasing out – Low priority

SOCIETAL SUPPORT Assisting society deal with functional catastrophesHome - Emerging – Potentially serious priority

PMC SECURITY AGENDA 2020


US OUT

Global powerHard brotherEconomic crisisDomestic division

Military dominanceBut one–warFocus Asia

RUSSIA UP

Continental powerHard strangerEconomic incomeDomestic instability

Military buildupStrategic nuclearEurostrategic (Iskander+)Conventional (2012-2022

EUROPÉ DOWN

Soft powerSoft grandmotherEconomic crisisDomestic decline

Military declineStrategic

nationalEurostrategic

voidStupid

defence


DECAPITATION Global Ongoing Top priority US + select

BARRIERS Rich fringe Ongoing Rising need All globalisers

INTERSTATE WAR Asia Preparations Top priority US + Asians

Europe Emerging Ignored ?

FLOW SECURITY Global Emerging Top priority All globalisers

ECOSECURITY Global Emerging ?

DOMESTIC ORDER Home Emerging Pot. serious National

SOCIETAL SUPPORT Home Emerging Pot. serious National / Regional

SOCIAL ENGINEERS Global Phasing out Low priority Regionals

PMC SECURITY AGENDA 2020

Documents

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