ANALYST MEETING Q2/2012
Contents
1
Highlights
Performance & Roadmap
Investment & Stress Test Monitoring
2H/2012 Outlook
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
1H/2012 Highlights
2
1 EMG ระหว่างการฟ้องร้อง 2. Gas resume
3. Stock gain and FX gain
Highlights Q2/2012 1H/2012
Economy • Ease concerns on Iran sanction • Global economic indicators plummeted • Euro zone unemployment rate hit record high in June • Downward oil price trend • Baht depreciation against USD
Operation: Gas
Oil
PTTEP
Refinery
Petrochemical
• Gas volume hit new high at 4,507 mmscfd • Increased in gas feed cost • More loss on NGV
• Lower margin while sales vol. increase
• Performance dropped mainly from non recurring items (deferred tax, unrealized Fx loss, impairment)
• Refinery affiliates performance drop from stock loss and inventory loss (NRV)
• Weaken spread margin while sales vol. increase
• Sales volume increase 4% YoY • Increase in gas feed cost • More loss on NGV
• Higher margin and increase sales vol.
• Performance increased mainly from higher avg. selling price
• Refinery affiliates performance drop from stock loss and inventory loss (NRV)
• Weaken spread margin while sales vol. increase
Finance
• PTT issued 15,000 MMTHB debentures • Impairment on EMG & Montara
• PTT issued 35,000 MMTHB debentures
Dow Jones Sustainability Indexes
95th in July 2012 17th in January 2012
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
1,438
27,863
10,938
16,181
28,497*
6,214 14,948
-282
11,378
-4,077
1H/11 1H/12
Net Income Performance 1H/2012 VS 1H/2011
3
45,899
• NG sales vol. increase 4% • Avg. NG selling price increase 2% • Oil vol. increase 8% • Oil margin increase 19% • GSP feedstock increase 21% • NGV loss increase 92% • Avg. NG gas cost increase 29%
• Sales vol. increase 7% • Stock loss and inventory loss from NRV (PTTGC’ refining unit)
• Avg. selling price increase 22% • Sales vol. decrease 5% • Impairment on Montara 3,455 MMTHB
• Crude intake increase 2% • Avg. GIM decrease 66%
• Impairment on EMG 3,972 MMTHB
PTT
Others
Refinery
PTTEP
Petrochem
Unit : MMTHB
67,199
32%
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
* Including Gain (Loss) on sales of investments in Associates = THB 570 million
4
PTT’s Strategy for Sustainability
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
4
Contents
5
Highlights
Performance & Roadmap
Investment & Stress Test Monitoring
2H/2012 Outlook
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
15%
Exploration & Production Performance : PTTEP (65.29%)
Product Prices Net Income (100%)
Sales Volume Key Activities
7.18 7.41 5.76 7.30
109.20 103.79 101.87 106.50
64.79 64.17 52.85
64.47
Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12
Liquid (USD/BBL)
Gas (USD/MMBTU)
Weighted Avg. (USD/BOE)
Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12
250
729
Unit: MMUSD
170 175 199 172
83 88 73
86
Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12
253
Liquid
Gas
Unit: KBOED
4%
263
5%
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal
6
QoQ • Sales volume increased from Bongkot South’s full start up in
June 2012 and S1 • Net income decreased mainly from non recurring losses
(Impairment loss, deferred tax and unrealized FX) • Impairment loss of the PTTEP AA’s Asset (Montara) 109
MMUSD due to the increase of project cost and the delay of the first oil production
1H • Avg. selling price increased by 22% • Sales volume decreased from ceasing production of Arthit
North since November 2011
58%
589 22% 1%
5%
3%
272 258
839
27%
5%
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
Total 969 MMBOE
Reserves Replacement Ratio 1.10 > 1
Reserve Life Index (year) 9
Policy
44%
56%
Domestic
Overseas
Exploration & Production Proved Reserves & Fund Raising Plan
Proved Reserves by Geography PTTEP’s Equity Raising Plan 2012
7
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal
Note: 1 Except for a minimal dilution to result in shareholding of not less than 64.8% of total issued shares due to potential exercise of greenshoe and stabilization actions (if required)
• Up to US$3.0bn (base offering before over-allotment)
• Board approval received on 20th July 2012 • Transaction is subjected to PTTEP shareholders’
approval on 24 August 2012
• PTT to fully subscribe to its pro-rata 65.29% ownership
in PTTEP1,
• Or up to US$2.0bn private placement to PTT following shareholder approval
• To support PTTEP’s long term growth plan • To maintain prudent capital structure management
policy
Objective
Size
PTT’s Participation
Timing
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
1,341 1,308
900 867
415 417
954 915
624 618
273 271
Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12
Gas Business Performance : Natural Gas
NG Sales Volume
NG Customer Profile Key Activities
2011
2012
2010 3,802
4,055 4,152
4,148 4,145
4,330 4,249
3,919
4,284
4,507
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Unit: MMSCFD
EGAT (30%)
IPP (20%)
SPP (9%)
GSP (21%)
Industry (14%)
NGV (6%)
Unit: MMSCFD
4,238 4,507
4,284
8
QoQ
• NG sales volume increased due to summer season,
especially in EGAT, IPP and resumption of GSP#6
• Higher average gas cost from periodic price adjustment in
Jan 12 and Apr 12
1H
• NGV loss increased by 93% due to increase in sales
volume and cost of sales, while PTT absorbed 2 Baht/kg
for public transportation
• Prolong control retail price of NGV
AVG.
4,040
4,161
4,396
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal
4%
NGV EBIT
Unit : MMTHB
4,396
5%
-4,133 -3,570 -4,426
Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12
93%
-7,996 24%
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
GSP - Reference Product Prices
GSP Sales Volume Key Activities
PP
HDPE
Naphtha
Unit : USD/Ton
333 333 333 333
940 815 870 878
1,395 1,387 1,381 1,391
1,428 1,445 1,656 1,424
751 683 630 717
Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12
Domestic LPG
Propane (9%)
NGL (11%)
Ethane (33%)
LPG (47%)
Unit : KTon
733 1,425 179
346
530
997
154
285
Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12
1,596 1,457
2,938
Gas Business Performance
9
QoQ
• EBITDA slightly decreased due to more loss in NGV
• GSPs sales volume increased from GSP#6’s resumption
1H
• EBITDA slightly decreased due to an increase in natural
gas feed cost and more loss in NGV
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal
10%
Gas BU EBITDA
Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12
Unit: MMTHB
14,976
35,483
15,965
6%
13%
Others
TM
S&M
GSP
FO 3.5%
30,941
3,053
4%
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
Pipeline
Capacity (MMSCFD) 4,380
GSP Capacity
(MTA)
5,580
6.7 6.7
6,980
6.7
6,980
6.7
New Supply
PTTEP (Bongkot
South)
4th Onshore
PTTLNG
Offshore Compressor
PTTEP (M9) Chevron
(Plathong)
6,980
6.7
GSP#6
6,980
6.7
Gas Business Roadmap
10
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Unit : MMSCFD
Power - EGAT
- IPP
- SPP
GSP
Industry NGV
58%
22%
14%
7%
6%
18%
15%
60%
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal
9%
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
0.98 0.88
Q1/12 Q2/12
10%
0.78
0.93
1H/11 1H/12 401 462 649 863
4,392 4,094
6,465
8,486
Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12
5,671 5,859
10,682 11,530
Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12
Oil Business Performance : PTT
Contribution Margin* Oil BU - EBITDA
Sales Volume Key Activities
Unit : MMTHB Unit : THB/Liter
Unit : MM Liter
* Excluded non–oil business
11
QoQ • Sales volume increased mainly due to higher fuel oil sales
to compensate lower gas volume from some gas field maintenance shutdown
• EBITDA dropped mainly from stock loss 1H • Sales volume increased from higher fuel oil and LPG sales • EBITDA increased from better diesel and aviation fuel
margins • Better performance of non-oil business
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal
3%
5%
8%
19%
31%
Oil
Non-Oil
4,793 4,556
7,114
9,349
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
Oil Business Development
International Station Intelligent Station Non-oil business
12
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal
Grow internationally • Laos • Cambodia • Philippines
Trusted Brand 2010-2011: Thailand’s Top Brand in Platinum Award for service station Provides free Wi-Fi service which complies with the government’s policy of Smart Thailand and PTT’s TAGNOC
EBITDA from Non-oil business increased 15% QoQ and 33% YoY in Q2/12 Café Amazon • Rank#1 in number of branch • Rank#2 in terms of market share • Expand to premium market under the
Amazon Embrace
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
58 513
649
571
Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12
16,354 15,878
29,311 32,232
Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12
0.06
0.03
0.12**
0.08**
1H/11 1H/12
0.02 0.04
0.09** 0.06**
Q1/12 Q2/12
International Trading Business Performance : PTT
Contribution Margin Trading BU - EBITDA*
Sales Volume Key Activities
Unit : MMTHB Unit :THB/Liter
Unit : MM Liter
* PTT Only | ** FX Adjustment in compliance with Accounting Standard
13
QoQ • Lower sales volume due to BCP 30 days planned
shutdown • Contribution margin surged as a result of better margin
from local crude oil sales 1H • Performance dropped due to lower margin, despite
volume increased as refineries planned shutdown totally 119 days in 1H/11
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal
10% 3%
>100%
100% 1,340**
3,360**
2,309**
50%
57%
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
969**
97% 91% 91% 93%
Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12
-14,936 -1,597
13,338
27,399
Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12
8.65
5.09
116 106 106 111
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12
GRM/GIM Net Income (100%)
Total Intake Key Activities
Refining Business Performance
Unit : MMTHB
738
Source : PTT, Refining Associates Note: Weighted Avg. GRM of PTT’s associates’ complex refineries (TOP, SPRC, BCP, and IRPC) Weighted Avg. GIM of PTT’s associates’ integrated refineries (TOP and IRPC) Account GRM/GIM = Market GRM/GIM + Hedging Gain/Loss + Stock Gain/Loss
Unit : KBD
BCP
IRPC
SPRC TOP
BCP
SPRC
TOP
Aggregated Util.
14
QoQ • Accounting GRM plummeted from stock loss due to
the drop in crude oil price • PX spread margin softened from delayed start up and
cut run of PTA plants 1H • Lower performance from the decrease in GRM and
stock loss from the drop in crude oil price as concern on European debt crisis and global economic recovery
IRPC
Unit : USD/BBL
9.80
A/C GRM A/C GIM
Mkt GRM
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal
115% 66%
212% 106%
Dubai
694 694 710
-1.50
12.50
4.30 8.12
3.22
-4.69
3.45 3.33
1.92
2% 6%
Stock Gain 5.14 3.90
/Loss -8.63 -1.53
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
PTT 49.10%
Refining Cap. 275 Kbpd PX 489 KTA MX 90 KTA BZ 177 KTA Tol 144 KTA
PX & BZ Upgrading
• PX 100 KTA
• BZ 100 KTA
Upcoming COD Q3/12
HCU Revamp Phase I & II PSA & HVU Revamp
Ethanol UBE
400 KLiter/day Specialty Wax
Power Plant 110 MW Benzene Derivatives • LAB 100 KTA
Power Plant 110 MW
PTT 38.51%
Refining Cap. 215 Kbpd Aromatic 367 KTA Olefin 728 KTA Polyolefin 615 KTA
Propylene Booster
• Propylene
100 KTA
Upcoming COD Q3/12
ABS/SAN Expansion
• ABS/SAN 61 KTA
PP Compound and Specialties 100 KTA
Propylene 320 KTA
PTT 27.22%
Bangchak
Refining Cap. 120 Kbpd
Solar Power Plant Ph I
44 MW (Installed)
COD Q3/12
Solar Power Plant Ph II - Chaiyaphum
25 MW (Installed)
Upcoming COD Q4/12
Palm Plantation 3,300 Rais
Upcoming COD Q3/12
Tail Gas Treating Unit
Solar Power Plant Ph II – Ayutthaya
25 MW (Installed)
Ethanol UBE
400 KLiter/day
Solar Power Plant Ph III
75 MW (Installed)
Continuous Catalytic Reforming Unit (CCR) 12 KBD Cogeneration Power Plant 15 MW
Expansion project
Refining Business Roadmap
15
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
380
504 442 442
Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12
574 521
699
548
Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12
Petrochemical Business Performance
Spread Margins Net Income (100%)
Sales Volume Key Activities
Unit : MMTHB Unit : USD/Ton
Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12
24,312
PTT Phenol
PTTGC
88% HMC Polymers
51%
11,108
1,335
Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12
77% 89% 85% 83%
Unit : KTon
PTTGC
HMC Polymers PTT Phenol
416 468
884 13%
16
QoQ • Sales volume slightly increased from economic recovery
and the resumption of HMC Polymers’s PDH unit and PTT Phenol’s BPA unit in Q1/12 after turnarounds
• Weaken performance due to squeezed spread margins as well as stock loss from PTTGC’s refinery unit
1H • Sales volume increased from the commercial operations
of • PTTGC’s LDPE 300 KTA in Feb 2011 • PTT Phenol’s Bis-Phenol A 150 KTA in Q2/11 • HMC Polymers’s PDH 310 KTA in Feb 2011
Aggregated Util.
HDPE-Naphtha PX-Naphtha
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal
7%
11,911
829
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
Petrochemical Business Roadmap
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
PTT 48.91%
Refining 280 KTA
Olefins 2,888 KTA
Aromatics 2,259 KTA
Polymers 1,590 KTA
Specialty 826 KTA
NatureWorks 50% PLA 70 KTA VENCOREX 51% TDI 125 KTA HDI 45 KTA
PTT 40.00%
Phenol 200 KTA
Acetone 125 KTA
BPA 150 KTA
Phenol 250 KTA Acetone 154 KTA
PTT 41.44% PP 750 KTA Propylene 310 KTA
PTT 48.50%
AN 200 KTA
MMA 70 KTA
AMS 160 KTA Upcoming COD Q4/12
PTT 50.00%
PBS 20 KTA
17
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
14 24
80
38
Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12
Other Businesses : Coal - SAR (45.4%)
Avg. Selling Price & Cash cost Net Income (100%)
Sales Volume Key Activities
Unit : MMUSD
95 95
89
95
61 54
53 57
Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12
Unit : USD/Ton
Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12
2,015
Unit : KTon
2,693
Jembayan
Sebuku
18
QoQ • Sebuku ramp up resulted in 30% increase in production • Jembayan new development on track, production and
cash cost reduced • Global coal price soften on weaken demand 1H • Sales volume decreased from heavy rainfall and
resources brought to focus on 2 new pits in Jembayan in 1H/12
• Performance dropped due to the increase in cash cost and the decrease in sales volume, despite the rise in average selling price from fixed price contracts
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal
5,156 9%
34%
53%
71%
Selling price
Cash Costs
0.3%
8% 11%
7%
4,708
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
Coal Mining Roadmap
Target Production Volume Resources & Reserves
19
Unit : MMTon
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 E
8.5 9.0
10.7 10.7
12.0
Jembayan
Sebuku
2%
98%
Sebuku
Jembayan
60%
40%
Jembayan
Sebuku
Resources 1,505 MMTon
Reserves 146 MMTon
19
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal
Reserves/Production ratio 13.8 years
Overview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2H/2012 Outlook
Unit : MMTHB
116 106 106 111
692,105 682,817
1,184,434 1,374,922
Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12
58,666 59,554
106,888 118,220
Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12
37,386
8,513
67,199
45,899
Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12 13.09 2.98 23.57 16.07
74%
16%
6% 4%
PTT - Oil & Trading
PTT - Gas
Others PTTEP
61% 26%
8% 5% PTT - Oil & Trading
PTT - Gas
Others
PTTEP
61%
35%
14%
-1% -9%
PTT
PetChem
Others
PTTEP
Refining
PTT Consolidated Performance : 1H/2012
20
Revenue
EBITDA
Net Income
Dubai (USD/BBL)
EBITDA
Net Income
EPS (THB/Share)
Revenue
1H/2012
16%
11%
32%
1%
2%
77%
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
21
PTT Group Performance : 1H/2012
% share
Unit : MMTHB 1H/11 1H/12 YoY 1H/11 1H/12 YoY
PTT Net Operating Income 27,927 27,863 0% 27,927 27,863 0%
E&P - PTTEP 22,149 26,021 17% 65.29% 14,948 16,181 8%
Petro. Business 24,312 11,911 -51% 11,378 6,214 -45%
- PTTGC* 19,940 10,703 -46% 48.91% 9,376 5,565 -41%
- HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC
/ PTTME/PTTTANK4,372 1,208 -72% 40-48% 2,002 649 -68%
Refining 27,398 -1,597 -106% 10,938 -282 -103%
- TOP 10,473 323 -97% 49.10% 5,230 495 -91%
- IRPC 6,753 -3,116 -146% 38.51% 2,306 -1,193 -152%
- SPRC 5,727 -858 -115% 36.00% 2,174 -194 -109%
- BCP 4,445 2,054 -54% 27.22% 1,228 610 -50%
Others Business 2,625 -2,769 n.m. 1,438 -4,077 n.m.
Inter- PTTI group
(PTTAPM,EMG,PTTML,FLNG),PTTGE-468 -4,876 n.m. 100% -468 -4,876 n.m.
Gas &
Utilities-TTM/PTTNGD/IPT/TP/DCAP/CHPP 1,905 1,680 -12% 20-100% 788 556 -29%
Oil & Oth.- PTTRB/PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/
/PTTCL/TLBC/ICT/EnCo1,188 427 -64% 33-100% 1,118 243 -78%
Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 76,484 33,566 -56% 38,702 18,036 -53%
Add Gain (Loss) on sales of investments in Associates570 0 n.m. 570 0 n.m.
PTT Conso. Net Income 104,981 61,429 -41% 67,199 45,899 -32%
Performance 100% Equity Method % PTT
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
601,337 622,452
419,385 413,408
254,030 345,326
127,094
114,667
643,713 681,551
392,303 411,519
365,830
402,783
12.1 12.9
0.4 0.5
1.3 1.5
2011 30-Jun-12
Other Liabilities
PP&E
Others Non-
current Assets
Other Current Assets
L/T Liabilities (incl. due within 1 yr)
Total Equity
Unit: MMTHB
Cash & S/T Invest
Increased assets :
• 4th Onshore pipeline
• PTTEP Australasia
• Myanmar Zawtika
• KKD oil sands
• Mining properties (RIM)
Net Debt/EBITDA < 2.0
Net Debt/Equity < 1.0
ICR
Strong Financial Position
PTT Ratings at Sovereign Level
− FC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),
JCR (A-), FITCH (BBB)
− LC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),
JCR (A), FITCH (A-)
31 Dec11 30 Jun 12
1,401,846 1,495,853
7%
Statement of Financial Position : Solid and Secured
22
Treasury policy
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
Contents
23
Highlights
Performance & Roadmap
Investment & Stress Test Monitoring
2H/2012 Outlook
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
Gas 34%
Oil & Trading 9%
R&D 3%
Others 44%
Coal 2%Power 4% LNG 4%
23,138 25,97735,812
46,80739,787
32,383
R&D
JV & Investment in Subsidiaries
Oil & Trading
Gas
75,576 81,513
Unit: MMTHB
PTT: CAPEX (PTT and Wholly Owned Subsidiaries) PTT plans to invest ~Bt 234 bn ($8bn) during 2012-2014
76,840
CAPEX Breakdown : 3 Years
By Business Unit
2012 2013 2014
JV &
Investment in
Subsidiaries
54%
24
Overview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2H/2012 Outlook
PTT Monitors Stress Scenario Though CLI from OECD
What is CLI?
How to
interpret?
What is
included?
SOURCE: OECD
CLIs are constructed from economic data that has similar cyclical
fluctuations to those of the business cycle but which precede those
of the business cycle
The CLI attempts to indicate turning points in economic activity
approximately “6 months in advance”
Expansion – increasing and above 100
Downturn – decreasing and above 100
Slowdown – decreasing and below 100
Recovery – increasing and below 100
The components included target early stages of production, respond to
changes in economic activity and are sensitive to future expectations
(eg. PMI: Purchasing Manager’s Index, export order book, retail sale,
and consumer sentiment)
CLI (Composite Leading Indicator) provide early signals of turning points in business cycles
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
25
48%
11%
19%
22%
Start Stress Testing
Key Components:
• Consumer Sentiment • Purchasing Manager’s Index
Key Components:
• Business Climate Indicator • Export Order Book (Manufacturing)
Key Components:
• M 2 Money Supply • Production of Motor/ Vehicles
Euro China U.S.
Start Stress Testing
Again showing downturn
“3 Biggest players (accounted more than 50%)
show a stronger signs of economic slowdown”
Continued slowdown Slowdown become more evident
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
J J J J J J J
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
J J J J J J J
CLI
2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
J J J J J J J 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 ’ 12
CLI
’ 12
CLI
2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 ’ 12
Euro
China
U.S.
3 Areas = 52%
World GDP 2011 Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs)
26
Start Stress Testing
Divest non strategic assets
Build cash
No regret :
OPEX and CAPEX improvement
Minimize working capital by:
Discounting / factoring AR
Cancel or defer approved and
planned projects beyond 2016
Raise debt to go one notch
downgrade vs. equity
Reduce equity stake in subsidiaries
PTT Consolidated Mitigation Plan 2012-2016
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
27
Contents
28
Highlights
Performance & Roadmap
Investment & Stress Test Monitoring
2H/2012 Outlook
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
Economic Outlook : 2H/2012
29
Positive Negative
Global
• U.S. upcoming election • U.S. and China begin to stimulate
their economies • Easing monetary policy in
developed and emerging countries
• Territorial disputes in South China sea • Euro zone debt crisis escalated in
Italy, Spain, Greece • Turmoil in the oil producing countries
(Syria, Iran and Israel) • Transparency issue of major financial
institutions
Thailand
• BOT keep policy rate unchanged at 3% p.a.
• BOT forecast annual GDP growth of
5.7% • Economic recovery supports
number of tourists • Continuous effort in flood protection
• CPI increases following the rise in energy prices and minimum wages
• Headline inflation rose in July due to
higher fuel and food prices • Uncertain energy policy
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
116
108 108 110105 106
109 111106
110
116
123
117
108
9498
106
Market Outlook : Crude Oil
30
Source: PRISM,PTT
– The North Sea oil fields maintenance
– Hurricane season in Gulf of Mexico
– Crude stocking ahead of winter season
– Saudi Arabia is expected to cut the crude
supply by 500 KBD
– Iran sanction
Dubai crude oil price in 2H/2012 is expected to be around US$ 95-105 per barrel
• Prolong European debt crisis
Forecast
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12
Unit :USD/BBL
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
Monthly Avg. Dubai Crude Oil
Daily Avg. Dubai Crude Oil
Market Outlook : GRM
Singapore GRM in 2H/2012 is estimated to around 6 – 7 USD/BBL
– GRM in Singapore rebounded sharply due to refinery maintenance, outage and cut run
– Additional demand from Muslim countries ahead of Ramadan festival
– Permanent closure of Shell Clyde refinery in Sydney (90,000 b/d) at the end of September
– Seasonal surge of driving season in Q3 and heating oil demand in winter
– Additional Chinese refining capacities
– Prolong European debt crisis
31 Source: FACTS, DB, KBC, Reuters , IEA, Reuters, Thaioil and PRISM Estimated
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12
Mogas crack GO crack FO crack
Mogas crack outlook GO crack outlook FO crack outlook
Forecast
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
• HDPE –Naphtha expected to be around 500-600 USD/TON
• PP-Naphtha expected to be around 600-700 USD/TON
• Bz – Naphtha forecasted to be around 200-300 USD/TON
• PX – naphtha forecasted to be around 475-575 USD/TON
Market Outlook : Petrochemical
Seasonal demand from winter and new year
Turnaround of petrochemical plants in Q3
32
Unit :USD/ton
Source: PRISM Estimated
Olefins Aromatics
Olefins and Aromatics spread remain weak
• Lower demand caused by European debt crisis as well as economic slowdown in U.S. and China
• Delayed start up of new PTA plants while there will be additional 1.6 MTA of PX capacity in China
• Squeezed PTA margin will pressure PX market
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook
Thank you
PTT Public Company Limited – Investor Relations Department Tel. +66 2 537-3518, Fax. +66 2 537-3948, E-mail: [email protected]
http://www.pttplc.com, http://www.twitter.com/PTTIR
The information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. In addition, such
information contains projections and forward-looking statements that reflect our current views with respect to
future events and financial performance. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks and
uncertainties. No assurance is given that future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that our
assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ materially from those projected.
Disclaimer
Indigenous (17%)
Imported Refined Petroleum Products 67 KBD
829 KBD (**)
Source: PTIT
Remark : (*)Refined product from refineries= 869 KBD, including domestic supply of LPG from GSPs and Petrochemical Plants = 101 KBD
(**) Not included Inventory
KBD = Thousand Barrels per day
Crude Export 49 KBD
Import (83%)
Crude/ Condensate 910 KBD
Refined Products 970 KBD*
Domestic
Crude/ Condensate 145 KBD
Supply Production Sales
Export
260 KBD
Oil Balance Thailand: Jan - Jun 2012
977 KBD
194 KBD
Adequate refining capacity maintains the stability of supply
Total Refining Capacity in Thailand: 1,082 KBD
PTT’s Associated Refineries : 905 KBD (TOP, PTTGC, SPRC, IRPC, BCP)
ESSO : 177 KBD
Refined Products 211 KBD
34
LNG
14%
Myanmar
86%
Natural Gas Balance: Jan – Jun 2012
Indigenous (79%) 3,502 MMSCFD
Power (59%)
Industry (14%)
NGV (6%)
Petrochemical Feedstock (14%)
Industry Household
Transportation (7%)
Ethane/ Propane/ LPG/NGL
LPG/NGL
Remark: MMSCFD = Million Cubic Feet @ Heating Value 1,000 Btu/ft3
Total 4,416 MMSCFD
Pipeline 1,063 MMSCFD
2,439 MMSCFD
Methane 1,503 MMSCFD
Main driver of the Thai economy
Supply Production Sales
936 MMSCFD (21%)
6 GSPs Total Capacity
2,740 MMSCFD
905 MMSCFD
Chevron 32%
PTTEP 27%
Others 41%
Import (21%) 905 MMSCFD
35
Our Major Businesses & Activities
E&P
Gas
PTTEP 65.29% Exploration and Production
Upst
ream
Oil Marketing
Int’l Trading
Dow
nst
ream
Petrochemical
& Refining
PTTGC 48.91% Petrochemical Flagship
TOP 49.10% Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical
IRPC 38.51% Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical
SPRC 36.00% Stand alone Complex Refinery
BCP 27.22% Complex Refinery & Retail Stations
New
Busi
ness
International PTT Inter 100% Overseas investment arm of PTT :
Coal, New energy and related businesses
PTT PLC
• Oil Marketing 100% Retail service Stations and commercial Marketing
• Int’l Trading 100% Import/Export/Out-Out trading of petroleum and
petrochemical products
Inte
rmedia
te
PTT PLC
• Gas Pipeline 100% Sole owner/operator of the Transmission pipeline
• S&M 100% Supply & Marketing of Natural Gas
• GSP 100% Extracting Hydrocarbon contents in NG for Petrochemical’s feedstock
36
Business Areas Activities Company PTT’s holding (%)
Dividend Policy & Historical Payments
37
PTT’s minimum payout ratio
PTT is firmly committed to pay dividend at no less than 25% of net income
UNIT : Baht / share
7.71 8.75
13.43
22.40
30.57
34.14 34.82
18.3321.06
29.58
36.91
2.50 2.85 4.006.75
9.25 10.50 11.50
8.00 8.5010.25
13.00
25% 25%
32.4% 32.6% 29.8% 30.1% 30.3% 30.8% 33.0%43.6% 40.4% 34.7% 35.2%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS DPS % Dividend Payout
Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT (Cambodia) Co., Ltd. PTTCL 100.00% Subic Bay Energy Co., Ltd. SBECL 100.00% PTT Retail Business Co., Ltd. PTTRB 100.00% PTT Green Energy Pte. Ltd PTTGE 100.00% Thai Lube Blending Co., Ltd. TLBC* 48.95% Associates Equity Keloil-PTT LPG Sdn. Bhd. KPL 40.00% Vietnam LPG Co., Ltd. VLPG 45.00% Thai Petroleum Pipeline Co., Ltd. THAPPLINE 33.19% PetroAsia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. PA(Thailand) 35.00% Others Cost PetroAsia (Huizhou) Co., Ltd. PA(Huizhou) 25.00% PetroAsia (Maoming) Co., Ltd. PA(Maoming) 20.00% PetroAsia (Sanshui) Co., Ltd. PA(Sanshui) 25.00% Intoplane Services Co., Ltd. IPS 16.67% Fuel Pipeline Transportation Co., Ltd.FPT 2.76% Others Fair Value Bangkok Aviation Fuel Services Plc. BAFS 7.06%
38
Others
Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Exploration & Production Plc. PTTEP 65.29% PTT Natural Gas Distribution Co., Ltd. PTTNGD 58.00% PTT LNG Co., Ltd. PTTLNG 100.00% Combined Heat and Power producing Co.,Ltd CHPP 100.00% Joint Ventures Proportionate Trans Thai-Malaysia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. TTM (T) 50.00% Trans Thai-Malaysia (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. TTM (M) 50.00% District Cooling System and Power Plant DCAP 35.00% Associates Equity Thai Oil Power Co., Ltd. TP 26.00% Independent Power (Thailand) Co., Ltd. IPT 20.00% PTT Utility Co., Ltd. PTTUT 40.00% B.Grimm BIP Power Co., Ltd. B.Grimm BIP 23.00% Nava Nakorn Electricity Generation Co.,Ltd NNEG 30.00% Bangpa-in Cogeneration, Ltd BIC 25.00% Others Cost Ratchaburi Power Co., Ltd. RPCL 15.00%
Petrochemical Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Polymer Marketing Co., Ltd. PTTPM 50.00% PTT Polymer Logistics Co., Ltd. PTTPL 100.00% PTT Tank Terminal Co., Ltd. PTTTANK 100.00% Associates Equity PTT Global Chemical Plc. PTTGC 48.91% PTT Phenol Co., Ltd. PPCL 40.00% PTT Maintenance and Engineering Co., Ltd.PTTME 40.00% Joint Ventures Proportionate HMC Polymers Co., Ltd. HMC 41.44% PTT Asahi Chemical Co., Ltd. PTTAC 48.50% PTT MCC Biochem Co., Ltd. PMBC 50.00% Refining Associates Equity Thai Oil Plc. TOP 49.10% IRPC Plc. IRPC 38.51% Star Petroleum Refining Co., Ltd. SPRC 36.00% Bangchak Petroleum Plc. BCP 27.22% PTT Energy Solutions Co., Ltd. PTTES 40.00%
Others Fair Value Dhipaya Insurance Plc. TIP 13.33%
Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT International Co., Ltd. PTTI 100.00%
Energy Complex Co., Ltd. EnCo 50.00% Business Service Alliance Co., Ltd. BSA * 25.00%
International Trading Business Group
Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT International Trading Pte. PTTT 100.00%
Remark : * Subsidiaries that PTT holds less than 50% but being consolidated because PTT has the power to control the financial and operating policies.
Petrochemicals & Refining Business Group
Associates Equity PTT ICT Solutions Co., Ltd. PTTICT 20.00%
E&P and Gas Business Group Oil Business Group
Data as of 30 June 2012
PTT 9.6%
PTTEP 5.0%
PTTGC 2.8%
TOP 1.3%
IRPC 0.8%
BCP &
Others 0.5%
39
PTT’s Strategic Importance to the Thai Economy
Data as of 9 March 2012
SET Market Cap = Baht 9.6 trillion
Data as of 8 Aug 2012
Vayupak Fund 15%
Public
34%
Ministry of Finance
51%
PTT has the largest market cap on the SET Ministry of Finance holds majority stake in PTT
•Foreign 18% •Thai 16%
Others 80.0%
PTT Group 20.0%
PTT Aspiration Strategic direction and target to achieve “Big-Long-Strong” aspiration
“Thai Premier Multinational Energy Company”
Big
“Top quartile performance”
Dow Jones Sustainability Indexes
Long
Expand resources Maximize value along
the chain
Balance stakeholder excellence
Big
Long
Strong
Drive functional excellence and synergy
Share best practice and knowledge management
Strong
40
PTT Group Strategic Direction Investment priorities by geography and value chain
Upstream P&R
Non-oil Retail
Oil
& G
as
Retail
Upstream Upstream
Upstream Midstream
Upstream Coal
Ad
jace
nt
ind
ustr
y
Trading
Create P&R flagship and internationalize chemical business
Explore opportunities in non-fuel retail
Oth
ers
Internationalization
Gre
en
E
ne
rgy/
ma
teri
als
Infrastructure
Build Green business (ASEAN biohub) Bio-business
Div
ers
ific
ati
on
Non- Asia Europe Non- Asia Africa Non- Asia Americas Non- Asia Middle East
Australia, N. Asia and S. Asia ASEAN
Expand production to 900 kbd
Build LNG business & expand mid-/ downstream gas value chain
Support group inv.
Alt. energy Build Thai clean power, monitor opport. in ASEAN
Grow coal mining to large scale
Upstream Power Build Thailand Gas, follow int. gas value chain expansion, opportunistic coal
Expand oil station related business and spin off lubricants
Strengthen integrated hub (e.g. Gr. Marine)
Consolidate petroleum commodities and create value through international transactions
Plantations Develop palm oil, sugar and cassava
Top oil and gas player
Energy conglomerate
Business conglomerate
Priority 1 Priority 3 Priority 2 based on market attractiveness and potential for PTT Group to be distinctive 41
Unit : MMTHB
116
106 106 111
692,105 682,817
1,184,434 1,374,922
Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12
58,666 59,554
106,888 118,220
Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12
37,386
8,513
67,199
45,899
Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12 13.09 2.98 23.57 16.07
73%
17%
6% 4%
PTT - Oil & Trading
PTT - Gas
Others PTTEP
62% 25%
7% 6% PTT - Oil & Trading
PTT - Gas
Others
PTTEP
145%
60% 10%
-64%
-52%
PTT
PetChem
Others
PTTEP
Refining
PTT Consolidated Performance : Q2/2012
42
Revenue
EBITDA
Net Income
Dubai (USD/BBL)
EBITDA
Net Income
EPS (THB/Share)
Revenue
16%
11%
32%
Q2/2012
Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2H/2012 Outlook
1%
2%
77%
43
PTT Group Performance : Q2/2012
% share
Unit : MMTHB Q2/11 Q2/12 YoY Q2/11 Q2/12 YoY
PTT Net Operating Income 13,765 12,327 -10% 13,765 12,327 -10%
E&P - PTTEP 11,170 7,733 n.m. 65.29% 7,704 5,124 -33%
Petro. Business 11,108 1,334 -88% 5,242 877 -83%
- PTTGC 8,778 851 -90% 48.91% 4,188 697 -83%
- HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC
/ PTTME/PTTTANK2,330 483 -79% 40-48% 1,054 180 -83%
Refining 11,086 -14,936 n.m. 5,273 -5,406 n.m.
- TOP 3,245 -6,903 -313% 49.10% 2,705 -2,682 -199%
- IRPC 2,980 -4,060 n.m. 38.51% 846 -1,532 n.m.
- SPRC 1,840 -3,588 n.m. 36.00% 800 -1,128 n.m.
- BCP 3,021 -385 -113% 27.22% 922 -64 -107%
Others Business 389 -3,680 n.m. -277 -4,409 n.m.
Inter- PTTI group
(PTTAPM,EMG,PTTML,FLNG),PTTGE-282 -4,268 n.m. 100% -282 -4,268 n.m.
Gas &
Utilities-TTM/PTTNGD/IPT/TP/DCAP/CHPP 1,073 891 -17% 20-100% 439 237 -46%
Oil & Oth.- PTTRB/PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/
/PTTCL/TLBC/ICT/EnCo-402 -303 n.m. 33-100% -434 -378 n.m.
Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 33,753 -9,549 -128% 17,942 -3,814 -121%
Add Gain (Loss) on sales of investments in Associates570 0 570
PTT Conso. Net Income 48,088 2,778 -94% 32,277 8,513 -74%
Performance 100% Equity Method % PTT
44
Statements of Cash Flows for 1H 2012 & 2011 (PTT Only)
Free Cash flow
6,169 17,095
Investing
1H/2011 -16,154
1H/2012 -3,287
CAPEX(PP&E, Intangible asset) -10,822 -10,263
Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) -26,505 -1,226
Dividend/Interest Received 12,900 17,658
Others 8,273 -9,456
Operating
1H/2011 22,323
1H/2012 20,382
Net Income 39,516 47,225
Changes in assets & liabilities -16,803 -20,666
Income Tax -5,433 -167
Non-Cash Adjustment 4,865 -6,655
Interest-net 178 645
Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents
37,865 58,971
Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents
61,311 51,341
Cash In/(Out)
-23,446 7,630
Adjustment
1 -35
44
Financing -29,616 -9,430
Repayment Loans -14,048 -18,601
Interest paid -6,343 -5,851
Dividend paid -15,667 -19,978
Received from share issue 1,250 0
Received from loans/Bonds 5,192 35,000
45
Statements of Consolidated Cash Flows for 1H 2012 & 2011
Free Cash flow
-53,504 -24,401
Financing 14,796 3,200
Repayment Loans -14,676 -45,972
Interest paid -8,466 -8,979
Dividend paid -19,766 -24,278
Received from share issue 1,321 4,883
Received from loans/Bonds 56,383 77,548
Investing
1H/2011 -103,261
1H/2012 -59,082
CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset) -43,827 -58,243
Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) -76,043 -1,884
Dividend/Interest Received 6,094 9,030
Others 10,515 -7,985
Operating
1H/2011 49,757
1H/2012 34,681
Net Income 67,199 45,899
Changes in assets & liabilities -33,428 -57,391
Income Tax -31,854 -30,733
Non-Cash Adjustment 47,517 75,587
Interest - net 323 1,319
Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents
97,814 96,104
Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents
135,801 116,132
Cash In/(Out)
-37,987 -20,028
Adjustment
721 1,173
45
Debt Profile : Control Cost & Manage Risk
Debt Portfolio
Managed debt according to financial risk and policy
Consolidated PTT Only Unit : MMTHB
197,877 170,816 188,709255,860 229,606 222,370
68,30872,337
71,047
114,442 161,991 188,404
31 Dec 10 31 Dec 11 30 Jun 12 31 Dec 10 31 Dec 11 30-Jun-12
USD THB266,185 259,756
370,302
(26%)
(74%)
(31%)
(69%)
(30%)
(70%)
(46%)
(54%)
243,153
391,597
46
(27%)
(73%)
410,774
(41%)
(59%)
: Cost of debts ~ 4.50 %
: % fixed-rate ~ 82 %
: Avg. debt life ~ 7.39 years
: Cost of debts ~ 4.87 %
: % fixed-rate ~ 93 %
: Avg. debt life ~ 7.44 years
Note : Data as of 30 Jun 2012 (THB/USD = 31.9651 THB/JPY = 0.4053) Excluding liabilities from finance leases; Cost of debts includes withholding tax.
SET Awards • Top Corporate Governance Report
Award 2010 & 2011 • Best Corporate Social Responsibility
Awards 2011
Trusted Brand 2010 & 2011 • Thailand’s Top Brand in Platinum
Award for Service Station 2010 & 2011
• Thailand’s Top Brand - Gold Award for lubricant products
Best CEO 2010 Best CEO for Energy Sector 2011
•Most Organised Investor Relations •Best Senior Management IR Support •Strongest Adherence to Corporate Governance •Most Consistent Dividend Policy •Best Strategic CSR
Outstanding State Enterprise Award 2010 & 2011 • Best State Enterprise of the Year,
Best of the Best • Outstanding Leadership • Outstanding Innovation
2010-2012 Accolades PTT is widely recognized among business communities both international and local
47
Asia Talent Management 10th Asia Business Leaders Award 2011
8th Top Asia Overall Performance of 2011 3rd Top Asia Integrated Oil&Gas of 2011
• 95th in 2012 • 128th in 2011 • 155th in 2010
• 167th in 2012 • -171th in 2011 • -196th in 2010
Dow Jones Sustainability Index # 17
Best CEO 2012 Best CFO 2012 Best Managed Company 2012 Best Corporate Governance 2012 Best Investor Relations 2012 Best Corporate Social Responsibility 2012 Best Commitment to Strong Dividend Policy 2012
Asian Corporate Director Recognition Awards • Asia’s Best CEO2011 & 2012 • Asia’s Best CFO • Best IR Website/Promotion • Best Environmental Responsibility • Best Investor Relations • Best Investor Relations Professional
ThaiBMA Best Bond Awards 2011 • Best Investor Relations Issuer ThaiBMA Best Bond Awards 2010 • Deal of the Year • Most Creative Issue • Best Investor Relations Issuer
The winners of The Asset’s Platinum Awards in 2010 & 2011 Board of the year Award 2010 & 2011
48
Natural Gas Price Structure
Customers Sales Price Structure
Gas Pool Price Supply Margins Pipeline Tariffs + +
Power Producers 59%
: EGAT 30%
: IPP 20%
: SPP 9%
Average Purchased Gas Price
1.75%
1.75%
9.33%
21.8 Bt/MMBtu
GSP 21% Charged at the same price structure of power producers
Petrochemicals Feedstocks
Industry 14% Charged at prices comparable to fuel oil
Gas prices are mostly agreed under long-term contracts and volatility pass-through to ensure stable returns.
NGV 6% Capped at 10.5 Baht/Kg
Ethane, Propane, LPG Profit-sharing mechanism based on market prices of petrochemicals
NGL Reference to Naphtha market price
Local Cooking Gas Capped at 333 USD/ton
• Contract periods are ~ 25-30 years or until depletion of gas fields or the expiration of concessions