ANALYST MEETING Q2/2012ptt.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/2012-Q2_Analyst Meeting.pdf · 2012. 9. 6. · 1H/2012 Highlights 2 1 EMG ระหว่างการฟ้องร้อง

ANALYST MEETING Q2/2012

Contents

1

Highlights

Performance & Roadmap

Investment & Stress Test Monitoring

2H/2012 Outlook

Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment & Stress Test 2H/2012 Outlook

1H/2012 Highlights

2

1 EMG ระหว่างการฟ้องร้อง 2. Gas resume

3. Stock gain and FX gain

Highlights Q2/2012 1H/2012

Economy • Ease concerns on Iran sanction • Global economic indicators plummeted • Euro zone unemployment rate hit record high in June • Downward oil price trend • Baht depreciation against USD

Operation: Gas

Oil

PTTEP

Refinery

Petrochemical

• Gas volume hit new high at 4,507 mmscfd • Increased in gas feed cost • More loss on NGV

• Lower margin while sales vol. increase

• Performance dropped mainly from non recurring items (deferred tax, unrealized Fx loss, impairment)

• Refinery affiliates performance drop from stock loss and inventory loss (NRV)

• Weaken spread margin while sales vol. increase

• Sales volume increase 4% YoY • Increase in gas feed cost • More loss on NGV

• Higher margin and increase sales vol.

• Performance increased mainly from higher avg. selling price

• Refinery affiliates performance drop from stock loss and inventory loss (NRV)

• Weaken spread margin while sales vol. increase

Finance

• PTT issued 15,000 MMTHB debentures • Impairment on EMG & Montara

• PTT issued 35,000 MMTHB debentures

Dow Jones Sustainability Indexes

95th in July 2012 17th in January 2012


http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.triplepundit.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/DJSI-logo.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.triplepundit.com/2009/09/dow-jones-sustainability-index/&usg=__5t4M8CHOSSWRLr75kV-60T-tPmE=&h=222&w=250&sz=7&hl=en&start=1&itbs=1&tbnid=alzGrAdKKDeCjM:&tbnh=99&tbnw=111&prev=/images?q=DJSI+logo&hl=en&gbv=2&tbs=isch:1

1,438

27,863

10,938

16,181

28,497*

6,214 14,948

-282

11,378

-4,077

1H/11 1H/12

Net Income Performance 1H/2012 VS 1H/2011

3

45,899

• NG sales vol. increase 4% • Avg. NG selling price increase 2% • Oil vol. increase 8% • Oil margin increase 19% • GSP feedstock increase 21% • NGV loss increase 92% • Avg. NG gas cost increase 29%

• Sales vol. increase 7% • Stock loss and inventory loss from NRV (PTTGC’ refining unit)

• Avg. selling price increase 22% • Sales vol. decrease 5% • Impairment on Montara 3,455 MMTHB

• Crude intake increase 2% • Avg. GIM decrease 66%

• Impairment on EMG 3,972 MMTHB

PTT

Others

Refinery

PTTEP

Petrochem

Unit : MMTHB

67,199

32%


* Including Gain (Loss) on sales of investments in Associates = THB 570 million

4

PTT’s Strategy for Sustainability


4

Contents

5

Highlights



2H/2012 Outlook


15%

Exploration & Production Performance : PTTEP (65.29%)

Product Prices Net Income (100%)

Sales Volume Key Activities

7.18 7.41 5.76 7.30

109.20 103.79 101.87 106.50

64.79 64.17 52.85

64.47

Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12

Liquid (USD/BBL)

Gas (USD/MMBTU)

Weighted Avg. (USD/BOE)

Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12

250

729

Unit: MMUSD

170 175 199 172

83 88 73

86

Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12

253

Liquid

Gas

Unit: KBOED

4%

263

5%

E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal

6

QoQ • Sales volume increased from Bongkot South’s full start up in

June 2012 and S1 • Net income decreased mainly from non recurring losses

(Impairment loss, deferred tax and unrealized FX) • Impairment loss of the PTTEP AA’s Asset (Montara) 109

MMUSD due to the increase of project cost and the delay of the first oil production

1H • Avg. selling price increased by 22% • Sales volume decreased from ceasing production of Arthit

North since November 2011

58%

589 22% 1%

5%

3%

272 258

839

27%

5%


Total 969 MMBOE

Reserves Replacement Ratio 1.10 > 1

Reserve Life Index (year) 9

Policy

44%

56%

Domestic

Overseas

Exploration & Production Proved Reserves & Fund Raising Plan

Proved Reserves by Geography PTTEP’s Equity Raising Plan 2012

7


Note: 1 Except for a minimal dilution to result in shareholding of not less than 64.8% of total issued shares due to potential exercise of greenshoe and stabilization actions (if required)

• Up to US$3.0bn (base offering before over-allotment)

• Board approval received on 20th July 2012 • Transaction is subjected to PTTEP shareholders’

approval on 24 August 2012

• PTT to fully subscribe to its pro-rata 65.29% ownership

in PTTEP1,

• Or up to US$2.0bn private placement to PTT following shareholder approval

• To support PTTEP’s long term growth plan • To maintain prudent capital structure management

policy

Objective

Size

PTT’s Participation

Timing


1,341 1,308

900 867

415 417

954 915

624 618

273 271

Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12

Gas Business Performance : Natural Gas

NG Sales Volume

NG Customer Profile Key Activities

2011

2012

2010 3,802

4,055 4,152

4,148 4,145

4,330 4,249

3,919

4,284

4,507

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Unit: MMSCFD

EGAT (30%)

IPP (20%)

SPP (9%)

GSP (21%)

Industry (14%)

NGV (6%)

Unit: MMSCFD

4,238 4,507

4,284

8

QoQ

• NG sales volume increased due to summer season,

especially in EGAT, IPP and resumption of GSP#6

• Higher average gas cost from periodic price adjustment in

Jan 12 and Apr 12

1H

• NGV loss increased by 93% due to increase in sales

volume and cost of sales, while PTT absorbed 2 Baht/kg

for public transportation

• Prolong control retail price of NGV

AVG.

4,040

4,161

4,396


4%

NGV EBIT

Unit : MMTHB

4,396

5%

-4,133 -3,570 -4,426

Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12

93%

-7,996 24%


GSP - Reference Product Prices

GSP Sales Volume Key Activities

PP

HDPE

Naphtha

Unit : USD/Ton

333 333 333 333

940 815 870 878

1,395 1,387 1,381 1,391

1,428 1,445 1,656 1,424

751 683 630 717

Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12

Domestic LPG

Propane (9%)

NGL (11%)

Ethane (33%)

LPG (47%)

Unit : KTon

733 1,425 179

346

530

997

154

285

Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12

1,596 1,457

2,938

Gas Business Performance

9

QoQ

• EBITDA slightly decreased due to more loss in NGV

• GSPs sales volume increased from GSP#6’s resumption

1H

• EBITDA slightly decreased due to an increase in natural

gas feed cost and more loss in NGV


10%

Gas BU EBITDA

Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12

Unit: MMTHB

14,976

35,483

15,965

6%

13%

Others

TM

S&M

GSP

FO 3.5%

30,941

3,053

4%


Pipeline

Capacity (MMSCFD) 4,380

GSP Capacity

(MTA)

5,580

6.7 6.7

6,980

6.7

6,980

6.7

New Supply

PTTEP (Bongkot

South)

4th Onshore

PTTLNG

Offshore Compressor

PTTEP (M9) Chevron

(Plathong)

6,980

6.7

GSP#6

6,980

6.7

Gas Business Roadmap

10

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Unit : MMSCFD

Power - EGAT

- IPP

- SPP

GSP

Industry NGV

58%

22%

14%

7%

6%

18%

15%

60%


9%


0.98 0.88

Q1/12 Q2/12

10%

0.78

0.93

1H/11 1H/12 401 462 649 863

4,392 4,094

6,465

8,486

Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12

5,671 5,859

10,682 11,530

Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12

Oil Business Performance : PTT

Contribution Margin* Oil BU - EBITDA


Unit : MMTHB Unit : THB/Liter

Unit : MM Liter

* Excluded non–oil business

11

QoQ • Sales volume increased mainly due to higher fuel oil sales

to compensate lower gas volume from some gas field maintenance shutdown

• EBITDA dropped mainly from stock loss 1H • Sales volume increased from higher fuel oil and LPG sales • EBITDA increased from better diesel and aviation fuel

margins • Better performance of non-oil business


3%

5%

8%

19%

31%

Oil

Non-Oil

4,793 4,556

7,114

9,349


Oil Business Development

International Station Intelligent Station Non-oil business

12


Grow internationally • Laos • Cambodia • Philippines

Trusted Brand 2010-2011: Thailand’s Top Brand in Platinum Award for service station Provides free Wi-Fi service which complies with the government’s policy of Smart Thailand and PTT’s TAGNOC

EBITDA from Non-oil business increased 15% QoQ and 33% YoY in Q2/12 Café Amazon • Rank#1 in number of branch • Rank#2 in terms of market share • Expand to premium market under the

Amazon Embrace


58 513

649

571

Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12

16,354 15,878

29,311 32,232

Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12

0.06

0.03

0.12**

0.08**

1H/11 1H/12

0.02 0.04

0.09** 0.06**

Q1/12 Q2/12

International Trading Business Performance : PTT

Contribution Margin Trading BU - EBITDA*


Unit : MMTHB Unit :THB/Liter

Unit : MM Liter

* PTT Only | ** FX Adjustment in compliance with Accounting Standard

13

QoQ • Lower sales volume due to BCP 30 days planned

shutdown • Contribution margin surged as a result of better margin

from local crude oil sales 1H • Performance dropped due to lower margin, despite

volume increased as refineries planned shutdown totally 119 days in 1H/11


10% 3%

>100%

100% 1,340**

3,360**

2,309**

50%

57%


969**

97% 91% 91% 93%

Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12

-14,936 -1,597

13,338

27,399

Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12

8.65

5.09

116 106 106 111

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12

GRM/GIM Net Income (100%)

Total Intake Key Activities

Refining Business Performance

Unit : MMTHB

738

Source : PTT, Refining Associates Note: Weighted Avg. GRM of PTT’s associates’ complex refineries (TOP, SPRC, BCP, and IRPC) Weighted Avg. GIM of PTT’s associates’ integrated refineries (TOP and IRPC) Account GRM/GIM = Market GRM/GIM + Hedging Gain/Loss + Stock Gain/Loss

Unit : KBD

BCP

IRPC

SPRC TOP

BCP

SPRC

TOP

Aggregated Util.

14

QoQ • Accounting GRM plummeted from stock loss due to

the drop in crude oil price • PX spread margin softened from delayed start up and

cut run of PTA plants 1H • Lower performance from the decrease in GRM and

stock loss from the drop in crude oil price as concern on European debt crisis and global economic recovery

IRPC

Unit : USD/BBL

9.80

A/C GRM A/C GIM

Mkt GRM


115% 66%

212% 106%

Dubai

694 694 710

-1.50

12.50

4.30 8.12

3.22

-4.69

3.45 3.33

1.92

2% 6%

Stock Gain 5.14 3.90

/Loss -8.63 -1.53


2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

PTT 49.10%

Refining Cap. 275 Kbpd PX 489 KTA MX 90 KTA BZ 177 KTA Tol 144 KTA

PX & BZ Upgrading

• PX 100 KTA

• BZ 100 KTA

Upcoming COD Q3/12

HCU Revamp Phase I & II PSA & HVU Revamp

Ethanol UBE

400 KLiter/day Specialty Wax

Power Plant 110 MW Benzene Derivatives • LAB 100 KTA

Power Plant 110 MW

PTT 38.51%

Refining Cap. 215 Kbpd Aromatic 367 KTA Olefin 728 KTA Polyolefin 615 KTA

Propylene Booster

• Propylene

100 KTA

Upcoming COD Q3/12

ABS/SAN Expansion

• ABS/SAN 61 KTA

PP Compound and Specialties 100 KTA

Propylene 320 KTA

PTT 27.22%

Bangchak

Refining Cap. 120 Kbpd

Solar Power Plant Ph I

44 MW (Installed)

COD Q3/12

Solar Power Plant Ph II - Chaiyaphum

25 MW (Installed)

Upcoming COD Q4/12

Palm Plantation 3,300 Rais

Upcoming COD Q3/12

Tail Gas Treating Unit

Solar Power Plant Ph II – Ayutthaya

25 MW (Installed)

Ethanol UBE

400 KLiter/day

Solar Power Plant Ph III

75 MW (Installed)

Continuous Catalytic Reforming Unit (CCR) 12 KBD Cogeneration Power Plant 15 MW

Expansion project

Refining Business Roadmap

15



380

504 442 442

Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12

574 521

699

548

Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12

Petrochemical Business Performance

Spread Margins Net Income (100%)


Unit : MMTHB Unit : USD/Ton

Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12

24,312

PTT Phenol

PTTGC

88% HMC Polymers

51%

11,108

1,335

Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12

77% 89% 85% 83%

Unit : KTon

PTTGC

HMC Polymers PTT Phenol

416 468

884 13%

16

QoQ • Sales volume slightly increased from economic recovery

and the resumption of HMC Polymers’s PDH unit and PTT Phenol’s BPA unit in Q1/12 after turnarounds

• Weaken performance due to squeezed spread margins as well as stock loss from PTTGC’s refinery unit

1H • Sales volume increased from the commercial operations

of • PTTGC’s LDPE 300 KTA in Feb 2011 • PTT Phenol’s Bis-Phenol A 150 KTA in Q2/11 • HMC Polymers’s PDH 310 KTA in Feb 2011

Aggregated Util.

HDPE-Naphtha PX-Naphtha


7%

11,911

829


Petrochemical Business Roadmap

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

PTT 48.91%

Refining 280 KTA

Olefins 2,888 KTA

Aromatics 2,259 KTA

Polymers 1,590 KTA

Specialty 826 KTA

NatureWorks 50% PLA 70 KTA VENCOREX 51% TDI 125 KTA HDI 45 KTA

PTT 40.00%

Phenol 200 KTA

Acetone 125 KTA

BPA 150 KTA

Phenol 250 KTA Acetone 154 KTA

PTT 41.44% PP 750 KTA Propylene 310 KTA

PTT 48.50%

AN 200 KTA

MMA 70 KTA

AMS 160 KTA Upcoming COD Q4/12

PTT 50.00%

PBS 20 KTA

17



14 24

80

38

Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12

Other Businesses : Coal - SAR (45.4%)

Avg. Selling Price & Cash cost Net Income (100%)


Unit : MMUSD

95 95

89

95

61 54

53 57

Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12

Unit : USD/Ton

Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12

2,015

Unit : KTon

2,693

Jembayan

Sebuku

18

QoQ • Sebuku ramp up resulted in 30% increase in production • Jembayan new development on track, production and

cash cost reduced • Global coal price soften on weaken demand 1H • Sales volume decreased from heavy rainfall and

resources brought to focus on 2 new pits in Jembayan in 1H/12

• Performance dropped due to the increase in cash cost and the decrease in sales volume, despite the rise in average selling price from fixed price contracts


5,156 9%

34%

53%

71%

Selling price

Cash Costs

0.3%

8% 11%

7%

4,708


http://www.straitsasia.com/

http://www.straitsasia.com/

Coal Mining Roadmap

Target Production Volume Resources & Reserves

19

Unit : MMTon

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 E

8.5 9.0

10.7 10.7

12.0

Jembayan

Sebuku

2%

98%

Sebuku

Jembayan

60%

40%

Jembayan

Sebuku

Resources 1,505 MMTon

Reserves 146 MMTon

19


Reserves/Production ratio 13.8 years

Overview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2H/2012 Outlook

Unit : MMTHB

116 106 106 111

692,105 682,817

1,184,434 1,374,922

Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12

58,666 59,554

106,888 118,220

Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12

37,386

8,513

67,199

45,899

Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12 13.09 2.98 23.57 16.07

74%

16%

6% 4%

PTT - Oil & Trading

PTT - Gas

Others PTTEP

61% 26%

8% 5% PTT - Oil & Trading

PTT - Gas

Others

PTTEP

61%

35%

14%

-1% -9%

PTT

PetChem

Others

PTTEP

Refining

PTT Consolidated Performance : 1H/2012

20

Revenue

EBITDA

Net Income

Dubai (USD/BBL)

EBITDA

Net Income

EPS (THB/Share)

Revenue

1H/2012

16%

11%

32%

1%

2%

77%


21

PTT Group Performance : 1H/2012

% share

Unit : MMTHB 1H/11 1H/12 YoY 1H/11 1H/12 YoY

PTT Net Operating Income 27,927 27,863 0% 27,927 27,863 0%

E&P - PTTEP 22,149 26,021 17% 65.29% 14,948 16,181 8%

Petro. Business 24,312 11,911 -51% 11,378 6,214 -45%

- PTTGC* 19,940 10,703 -46% 48.91% 9,376 5,565 -41%

- HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC

/ PTTME/PTTTANK4,372 1,208 -72% 40-48% 2,002 649 -68%

Refining 27,398 -1,597 -106% 10,938 -282 -103%

- TOP 10,473 323 -97% 49.10% 5,230 495 -91%

- IRPC 6,753 -3,116 -146% 38.51% 2,306 -1,193 -152%

- SPRC 5,727 -858 -115% 36.00% 2,174 -194 -109%

- BCP 4,445 2,054 -54% 27.22% 1,228 610 -50%

Others Business 2,625 -2,769 n.m. 1,438 -4,077 n.m.

Inter- PTTI group

(PTTAPM,EMG,PTTML,FLNG),PTTGE-468 -4,876 n.m. 100% -468 -4,876 n.m.

Gas &

Utilities-TTM/PTTNGD/IPT/TP/DCAP/CHPP 1,905 1,680 -12% 20-100% 788 556 -29%

Oil & Oth.- PTTRB/PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/

/PTTCL/TLBC/ICT/EnCo1,188 427 -64% 33-100% 1,118 243 -78%

Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 76,484 33,566 -56% 38,702 18,036 -53%

Add Gain (Loss) on sales of investments in Associates570 0 n.m. 570 0 n.m.

PTT Conso. Net Income 104,981 61,429 -41% 67,199 45,899 -32%

Performance 100% Equity Method % PTT


601,337 622,452

419,385 413,408

254,030 345,326

127,094

114,667

643,713 681,551

392,303 411,519

365,830

402,783

12.1 12.9

0.4 0.5

1.3 1.5

2011 30-Jun-12

Other Liabilities

PP&E

Others Non-

current Assets

Other Current Assets

L/T Liabilities (incl. due within 1 yr)

Total Equity

Unit: MMTHB

Cash & S/T Invest

Increased assets :

• 4th Onshore pipeline

• PTTEP Australasia

• Myanmar Zawtika

• KKD oil sands

• Mining properties (RIM)

Net Debt/EBITDA < 2.0

Net Debt/Equity < 1.0

ICR

Strong Financial Position

PTT Ratings at Sovereign Level

− FC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),

JCR (A-), FITCH (BBB)

− LC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),

JCR (A), FITCH (A-)

31 Dec11 30 Jun 12

1,401,846 1,495,853

7%

Statement of Financial Position : Solid and Secured

22

Treasury policy


Contents

23

Highlights



2H/2012 Outlook


Gas 34%

Oil & Trading 9%

R&D 3%

Others 44%

Coal 2%Power 4% LNG 4%

23,138 25,97735,812

46,80739,787

32,383

R&D

JV & Investment in Subsidiaries

Oil & Trading

Gas

75,576 81,513

Unit: MMTHB

PTT: CAPEX (PTT and Wholly Owned Subsidiaries) PTT plans to invest ~Bt 234 bn ($8bn) during 2012-2014

76,840

CAPEX Breakdown : 3 Years

By Business Unit

2012 2013 2014

JV &

Investment in

Subsidiaries

54%

24

Overview Performance & Roadmap Investment 2H/2012 Outlook

PTT Monitors Stress Scenario Though CLI from OECD

What is CLI?

How to

interpret?

What is

included?

SOURCE: OECD

CLIs are constructed from economic data that has similar cyclical

fluctuations to those of the business cycle but which precede those

of the business cycle

The CLI attempts to indicate turning points in economic activity

approximately “6 months in advance”

Expansion – increasing and above 100

Downturn – decreasing and above 100

Slowdown – decreasing and below 100

Recovery – increasing and below 100

The components included target early stages of production, respond to

changes in economic activity and are sensitive to future expectations

(eg. PMI: Purchasing Manager’s Index, export order book, retail sale,

and consumer sentiment)

CLI (Composite Leading Indicator) provide early signals of turning points in business cycles


25

48%

11%

19%

22%

Start Stress Testing

Key Components:

• Consumer Sentiment • Purchasing Manager’s Index

Key Components:

• Business Climate Indicator • Export Order Book (Manufacturing)

Key Components:

• M 2 Money Supply • Production of Motor/ Vehicles

Euro China U.S.


Again showing downturn

“3 Biggest players (accounted more than 50%)

show a stronger signs of economic slowdown”

Continued slowdown Slowdown become more evident

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

J J J J J J J

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

J J J J J J J

CLI

2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

J J J J J J J 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 ’ 12

CLI

’ 12

CLI

2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 ’ 12

Euro

China

U.S.

3 Areas = 52%

World GDP 2011 Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs)

26


Divest non strategic assets

Build cash

No regret :

OPEX and CAPEX improvement

Minimize working capital by:

Discounting / factoring AR

Cancel or defer approved and

planned projects beyond 2016

Raise debt to go one notch

downgrade vs. equity

Reduce equity stake in subsidiaries

PTT Consolidated Mitigation Plan 2012-2016


27

Contents

28

Highlights



2H/2012 Outlook


Economic Outlook : 2H/2012

29

Positive Negative

Global

• U.S. upcoming election • U.S. and China begin to stimulate

their economies • Easing monetary policy in

developed and emerging countries

• Territorial disputes in South China sea • Euro zone debt crisis escalated in

Italy, Spain, Greece • Turmoil in the oil producing countries

(Syria, Iran and Israel) • Transparency issue of major financial

institutions

Thailand

• BOT keep policy rate unchanged at 3% p.a.

• BOT forecast annual GDP growth of

5.7% • Economic recovery supports

number of tourists • Continuous effort in flood protection

• CPI increases following the rise in energy prices and minimum wages

• Headline inflation rose in July due to

higher fuel and food prices • Uncertain energy policy


116

108 108 110105 106

109 111106

110

116

123

117

108

9498

106

Market Outlook : Crude Oil

30

Source: PRISM,PTT

– The North Sea oil fields maintenance

– Hurricane season in Gulf of Mexico

– Crude stocking ahead of winter season

– Saudi Arabia is expected to cut the crude

supply by 500 KBD

– Iran sanction

Dubai crude oil price in 2H/2012 is expected to be around US$ 95-105 per barrel

• Prolong European debt crisis

Forecast

75

85

95

105

115

125

135

Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12

Unit :USD/BBL


Monthly Avg. Dubai Crude Oil

Daily Avg. Dubai Crude Oil

Market Outlook : GRM

Singapore GRM in 2H/2012 is estimated to around 6 – 7 USD/BBL

– GRM in Singapore rebounded sharply due to refinery maintenance, outage and cut run

– Additional demand from Muslim countries ahead of Ramadan festival

– Permanent closure of Shell Clyde refinery in Sydney (90,000 b/d) at the end of September

– Seasonal surge of driving season in Q3 and heating oil demand in winter

– Additional Chinese refining capacities

– Prolong European debt crisis

31 Source: FACTS, DB, KBC, Reuters , IEA, Reuters, Thaioil and PRISM Estimated

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12

Mogas crack GO crack FO crack

Mogas crack outlook GO crack outlook FO crack outlook

Forecast


• HDPE –Naphtha expected to be around 500-600 USD/TON

• PP-Naphtha expected to be around 600-700 USD/TON

• Bz – Naphtha forecasted to be around 200-300 USD/TON

• PX – naphtha forecasted to be around 475-575 USD/TON

Market Outlook : Petrochemical

Seasonal demand from winter and new year

Turnaround of petrochemical plants in Q3

32

Unit :USD/ton

Source: PRISM Estimated

Olefins Aromatics

Olefins and Aromatics spread remain weak

• Lower demand caused by European debt crisis as well as economic slowdown in U.S. and China

• Delayed start up of new PTA plants while there will be additional 1.6 MTA of PX capacity in China

• Squeezed PTA margin will pressure PX market


Thank you

PTT Public Company Limited – Investor Relations Department Tel. +66 2 537-3518, Fax. +66 2 537-3948, E-mail: [email protected]

http://www.pttplc.com, http://www.twitter.com/PTTIR

The information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. In addition, such

information contains projections and forward-looking statements that reflect our current views with respect to

future events and financial performance. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks and

uncertainties. No assurance is given that future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that our

assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ materially from those projected.

Disclaimer

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.pttplc.com/

http://www.twitter.com/PTTIR

Indigenous (17%)

Imported Refined Petroleum Products 67 KBD

829 KBD (**)

Source: PTIT

Remark : (*)Refined product from refineries= 869 KBD, including domestic supply of LPG from GSPs and Petrochemical Plants = 101 KBD

(**) Not included Inventory

KBD = Thousand Barrels per day

Crude Export 49 KBD

Import (83%)

Crude/ Condensate 910 KBD

Refined Products 970 KBD*

Domestic

Crude/ Condensate 145 KBD

Supply Production Sales

Export

260 KBD

Oil Balance Thailand: Jan - Jun 2012

977 KBD

194 KBD

Adequate refining capacity maintains the stability of supply

Total Refining Capacity in Thailand: 1,082 KBD

PTT’s Associated Refineries : 905 KBD (TOP, PTTGC, SPRC, IRPC, BCP)

ESSO : 177 KBD

Refined Products 211 KBD

34

LNG

14%

Myanmar

86%

Natural Gas Balance: Jan – Jun 2012

Indigenous (79%) 3,502 MMSCFD

Power (59%)

Industry (14%)

NGV (6%)

Petrochemical Feedstock (14%)

Industry Household

Transportation (7%)

Ethane/ Propane/ LPG/NGL

LPG/NGL

Remark: MMSCFD = Million Cubic Feet @ Heating Value 1,000 Btu/ft3

Total 4,416 MMSCFD

Pipeline 1,063 MMSCFD

2,439 MMSCFD

Methane 1,503 MMSCFD

Main driver of the Thai economy

Supply Production Sales

936 MMSCFD (21%)

6 GSPs Total Capacity

2,740 MMSCFD

905 MMSCFD

Chevron 32%

PTTEP 27%

Others 41%

Import (21%) 905 MMSCFD

35

Our Major Businesses & Activities

E&P

Gas

PTTEP 65.29% Exploration and Production

Upst

ream

Oil Marketing

Int’l Trading

Dow

nst

ream

Petrochemical

& Refining

PTTGC 48.91% Petrochemical Flagship

TOP 49.10% Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical

IRPC 38.51% Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical

SPRC 36.00% Stand alone Complex Refinery

BCP 27.22% Complex Refinery & Retail Stations

New

Busi

ness

International PTT Inter 100% Overseas investment arm of PTT :

Coal, New energy and related businesses

PTT PLC

• Oil Marketing 100% Retail service Stations and commercial Marketing

• Int’l Trading 100% Import/Export/Out-Out trading of petroleum and

petrochemical products

Inte

rmedia

te

PTT PLC

• Gas Pipeline 100% Sole owner/operator of the Transmission pipeline

• S&M 100% Supply & Marketing of Natural Gas

• GSP 100% Extracting Hydrocarbon contents in NG for Petrochemical’s feedstock

36

Business Areas Activities Company PTT’s holding (%)

Dividend Policy & Historical Payments

37

PTT’s minimum payout ratio

PTT is firmly committed to pay dividend at no less than 25% of net income

UNIT : Baht / share

7.71 8.75

13.43

22.40

30.57

34.14 34.82

18.3321.06

29.58

36.91

2.50 2.85 4.006.75

9.25 10.50 11.50

8.00 8.5010.25

13.00

25% 25%

32.4% 32.6% 29.8% 30.1% 30.3% 30.8% 33.0%43.6% 40.4% 34.7% 35.2%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

EPS DPS % Dividend Payout

Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT (Cambodia) Co., Ltd. PTTCL 100.00% Subic Bay Energy Co., Ltd. SBECL 100.00% PTT Retail Business Co., Ltd. PTTRB 100.00% PTT Green Energy Pte. Ltd PTTGE 100.00% Thai Lube Blending Co., Ltd. TLBC* 48.95% Associates Equity Keloil-PTT LPG Sdn. Bhd. KPL 40.00% Vietnam LPG Co., Ltd. VLPG 45.00% Thai Petroleum Pipeline Co., Ltd. THAPPLINE 33.19% PetroAsia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. PA(Thailand) 35.00% Others Cost PetroAsia (Huizhou) Co., Ltd. PA(Huizhou) 25.00% PetroAsia (Maoming) Co., Ltd. PA(Maoming) 20.00% PetroAsia (Sanshui) Co., Ltd. PA(Sanshui) 25.00% Intoplane Services Co., Ltd. IPS 16.67% Fuel Pipeline Transportation Co., Ltd.FPT 2.76% Others Fair Value Bangkok Aviation Fuel Services Plc. BAFS 7.06%

38

Others

Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Exploration & Production Plc. PTTEP 65.29% PTT Natural Gas Distribution Co., Ltd. PTTNGD 58.00% PTT LNG Co., Ltd. PTTLNG 100.00% Combined Heat and Power producing Co.,Ltd CHPP 100.00% Joint Ventures Proportionate Trans Thai-Malaysia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. TTM (T) 50.00% Trans Thai-Malaysia (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. TTM (M) 50.00% District Cooling System and Power Plant DCAP 35.00% Associates Equity Thai Oil Power Co., Ltd. TP 26.00% Independent Power (Thailand) Co., Ltd. IPT 20.00% PTT Utility Co., Ltd. PTTUT 40.00% B.Grimm BIP Power Co., Ltd. B.Grimm BIP 23.00% Nava Nakorn Electricity Generation Co.,Ltd NNEG 30.00% Bangpa-in Cogeneration, Ltd BIC 25.00% Others Cost Ratchaburi Power Co., Ltd. RPCL 15.00%

Petrochemical Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Polymer Marketing Co., Ltd. PTTPM 50.00% PTT Polymer Logistics Co., Ltd. PTTPL 100.00% PTT Tank Terminal Co., Ltd. PTTTANK 100.00% Associates Equity PTT Global Chemical Plc. PTTGC 48.91% PTT Phenol Co., Ltd. PPCL 40.00% PTT Maintenance and Engineering Co., Ltd.PTTME 40.00% Joint Ventures Proportionate HMC Polymers Co., Ltd. HMC 41.44% PTT Asahi Chemical Co., Ltd. PTTAC 48.50% PTT MCC Biochem Co., Ltd. PMBC 50.00% Refining Associates Equity Thai Oil Plc. TOP 49.10% IRPC Plc. IRPC 38.51% Star Petroleum Refining Co., Ltd. SPRC 36.00% Bangchak Petroleum Plc. BCP 27.22% PTT Energy Solutions Co., Ltd. PTTES 40.00%

Others Fair Value Dhipaya Insurance Plc. TIP 13.33%

Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT International Co., Ltd. PTTI 100.00%

Energy Complex Co., Ltd. EnCo 50.00% Business Service Alliance Co., Ltd. BSA * 25.00%

International Trading Business Group

Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT International Trading Pte. PTTT 100.00%

Remark : * Subsidiaries that PTT holds less than 50% but being consolidated because PTT has the power to control the financial and operating policies.

Petrochemicals & Refining Business Group

Associates Equity PTT ICT Solutions Co., Ltd. PTTICT 20.00%

E&P and Gas Business Group Oil Business Group

Data as of 30 June 2012

PTT 9.6%

PTTEP 5.0%

PTTGC 2.8%

TOP 1.3%

IRPC 0.8%

BCP &

Others 0.5%

39

PTT’s Strategic Importance to the Thai Economy

Data as of 9 March 2012

SET Market Cap = Baht 9.6 trillion

Data as of 8 Aug 2012

Vayupak Fund 15%

Public

34%

Ministry of Finance

51%

PTT has the largest market cap on the SET Ministry of Finance holds majority stake in PTT

•Foreign 18% •Thai 16%

Others 80.0%

PTT Group 20.0%

PTT Aspiration Strategic direction and target to achieve “Big-Long-Strong” aspiration

“Thai Premier Multinational Energy Company”

Big

“Top quartile performance”

Dow Jones Sustainability Indexes

Long

Expand resources Maximize value along

the chain

Balance stakeholder excellence

Big

Long

Strong

Drive functional excellence and synergy

Share best practice and knowledge management

Strong

40


PTT Group Strategic Direction Investment priorities by geography and value chain

Upstream P&R

Non-oil Retail

Oil

& G

as

Retail

Upstream Upstream

Upstream Midstream

Upstream Coal

Ad

jace

nt

ind

ustr

y

Trading

Create P&R flagship and internationalize chemical business

Explore opportunities in non-fuel retail

Oth

ers

Internationalization

Gre

en

E

ne

rgy/

ma

teri

als

Infrastructure

Build Green business (ASEAN biohub) Bio-business

Div

ers

ific

ati

on

Non- Asia Europe Non- Asia Africa Non- Asia Americas Non- Asia Middle East

Australia, N. Asia and S. Asia ASEAN

Expand production to 900 kbd

Build LNG business & expand mid-/ downstream gas value chain

Support group inv.

Alt. energy Build Thai clean power, monitor opport. in ASEAN

Grow coal mining to large scale

Upstream Power Build Thailand Gas, follow int. gas value chain expansion, opportunistic coal

Expand oil station related business and spin off lubricants

Strengthen integrated hub (e.g. Gr. Marine)

Consolidate petroleum commodities and create value through international transactions

Plantations Develop palm oil, sugar and cassava

Top oil and gas player

Energy conglomerate

Business conglomerate

Priority 1 Priority 3 Priority 2 based on market attractiveness and potential for PTT Group to be distinctive 41

Unit : MMTHB

116

106 106 111

692,105 682,817

1,184,434 1,374,922

Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12

58,666 59,554

106,888 118,220

Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12

37,386

8,513

67,199

45,899

Q1/12 Q2/12 1H/11 1H/12 13.09 2.98 23.57 16.07

73%

17%

6% 4%

PTT - Oil & Trading

PTT - Gas

Others PTTEP

62% 25%

7% 6% PTT - Oil & Trading

PTT - Gas

Others

PTTEP

145%

60% 10%

-64%

-52%

PTT

PetChem

Others

PTTEP

Refining

PTT Consolidated Performance : Q2/2012

42

Revenue

EBITDA

Net Income

Dubai (USD/BBL)

EBITDA

Net Income

EPS (THB/Share)

Revenue

16%

11%

32%

Q2/2012

Highlights Performance & Roadmap Investment 2H/2012 Outlook

1%

2%

77%

43

PTT Group Performance : Q2/2012

% share

Unit : MMTHB Q2/11 Q2/12 YoY Q2/11 Q2/12 YoY

PTT Net Operating Income 13,765 12,327 -10% 13,765 12,327 -10%

E&P - PTTEP 11,170 7,733 n.m. 65.29% 7,704 5,124 -33%

Petro. Business 11,108 1,334 -88% 5,242 877 -83%

- PTTGC 8,778 851 -90% 48.91% 4,188 697 -83%

- HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC

/ PTTME/PTTTANK2,330 483 -79% 40-48% 1,054 180 -83%

Refining 11,086 -14,936 n.m. 5,273 -5,406 n.m.

- TOP 3,245 -6,903 -313% 49.10% 2,705 -2,682 -199%

- IRPC 2,980 -4,060 n.m. 38.51% 846 -1,532 n.m.

- SPRC 1,840 -3,588 n.m. 36.00% 800 -1,128 n.m.

- BCP 3,021 -385 -113% 27.22% 922 -64 -107%

Others Business 389 -3,680 n.m. -277 -4,409 n.m.

Inter- PTTI group

(PTTAPM,EMG,PTTML,FLNG),PTTGE-282 -4,268 n.m. 100% -282 -4,268 n.m.

Gas &

Utilities-TTM/PTTNGD/IPT/TP/DCAP/CHPP 1,073 891 -17% 20-100% 439 237 -46%

Oil & Oth.- PTTRB/PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/

/PTTCL/TLBC/ICT/EnCo-402 -303 n.m. 33-100% -434 -378 n.m.

Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 33,753 -9,549 -128% 17,942 -3,814 -121%

Add Gain (Loss) on sales of investments in Associates570 0 570

PTT Conso. Net Income 48,088 2,778 -94% 32,277 8,513 -74%

Performance 100% Equity Method % PTT

44

Statements of Cash Flows for 1H 2012 & 2011 (PTT Only)

Free Cash flow

6,169 17,095

Investing

1H/2011 -16,154

1H/2012 -3,287

CAPEX(PP&E, Intangible asset) -10,822 -10,263

Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) -26,505 -1,226

Dividend/Interest Received 12,900 17,658

Others 8,273 -9,456

Operating

1H/2011 22,323

1H/2012 20,382

Net Income 39,516 47,225

Changes in assets & liabilities -16,803 -20,666

Income Tax -5,433 -167

Non-Cash Adjustment 4,865 -6,655

Interest-net 178 645

Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents

37,865 58,971

Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents

61,311 51,341

Cash In/(Out)

-23,446 7,630

Adjustment

1 -35

44

Financing -29,616 -9,430

Repayment Loans -14,048 -18,601

Interest paid -6,343 -5,851

Dividend paid -15,667 -19,978

Received from share issue 1,250 0

Received from loans/Bonds 5,192 35,000

45

Statements of Consolidated Cash Flows for 1H 2012 & 2011

Free Cash flow

-53,504 -24,401

Financing 14,796 3,200

Repayment Loans -14,676 -45,972

Interest paid -8,466 -8,979

Dividend paid -19,766 -24,278

Received from share issue 1,321 4,883

Received from loans/Bonds 56,383 77,548

Investing

1H/2011 -103,261

1H/2012 -59,082

CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset) -43,827 -58,243

Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) -76,043 -1,884

Dividend/Interest Received 6,094 9,030

Others 10,515 -7,985

Operating

1H/2011 49,757

1H/2012 34,681

Net Income 67,199 45,899

Changes in assets & liabilities -33,428 -57,391

Income Tax -31,854 -30,733

Non-Cash Adjustment 47,517 75,587

Interest - net 323 1,319

Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents

97,814 96,104

Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents

135,801 116,132

Cash In/(Out)

-37,987 -20,028

Adjustment

721 1,173

45

Debt Profile : Control Cost & Manage Risk

Debt Portfolio

Managed debt according to financial risk and policy

Consolidated PTT Only Unit : MMTHB

197,877 170,816 188,709255,860 229,606 222,370

68,30872,337

71,047

114,442 161,991 188,404

31 Dec 10 31 Dec 11 30 Jun 12 31 Dec 10 31 Dec 11 30-Jun-12

USD THB266,185 259,756

370,302

(26%)

(74%)

(31%)

(69%)

(30%)

(70%)

(46%)

(54%)

243,153

391,597

46

(27%)

(73%)

410,774

(41%)

(59%)

: Cost of debts ~ 4.50 %

: % fixed-rate ~ 82 %

: Avg. debt life ~ 7.39 years

: Cost of debts ~ 4.87 %

: % fixed-rate ~ 93 %

: Avg. debt life ~ 7.44 years

Note : Data as of 30 Jun 2012 (THB/USD = 31.9651 THB/JPY = 0.4053) Excluding liabilities from finance leases; Cost of debts includes withholding tax.

SET Awards • Top Corporate Governance Report

Award 2010 & 2011 • Best Corporate Social Responsibility

Awards 2011

Trusted Brand 2010 & 2011 • Thailand’s Top Brand in Platinum

Award for Service Station 2010 & 2011

• Thailand’s Top Brand - Gold Award for lubricant products

Best CEO 2010 Best CEO for Energy Sector 2011

•Most Organised Investor Relations •Best Senior Management IR Support •Strongest Adherence to Corporate Governance •Most Consistent Dividend Policy •Best Strategic CSR

Outstanding State Enterprise Award 2010 & 2011 • Best State Enterprise of the Year,

Best of the Best • Outstanding Leadership • Outstanding Innovation

2010-2012 Accolades PTT is widely recognized among business communities both international and local

47

Asia Talent Management 10th Asia Business Leaders Award 2011

8th Top Asia Overall Performance of 2011 3rd Top Asia Integrated Oil&Gas of 2011

• 95th in 2012 • 128th in 2011 • 155th in 2010

• 167th in 2012 • -171th in 2011 • -196th in 2010

Dow Jones Sustainability Index # 17

Best CEO 2012 Best CFO 2012 Best Managed Company 2012 Best Corporate Governance 2012 Best Investor Relations 2012 Best Corporate Social Responsibility 2012 Best Commitment to Strong Dividend Policy 2012

Asian Corporate Director Recognition Awards • Asia’s Best CEO2011 & 2012 • Asia’s Best CFO • Best IR Website/Promotion • Best Environmental Responsibility • Best Investor Relations • Best Investor Relations Professional

ThaiBMA Best Bond Awards 2011 • Best Investor Relations Issuer ThaiBMA Best Bond Awards 2010 • Deal of the Year • Most Creative Issue • Best Investor Relations Issuer

The winners of The Asset’s Platinum Awards in 2010 & 2011 Board of the year Award 2010 & 2011

http://www.forbes.com/2004/03/24/04f2000land.html


48

Natural Gas Price Structure

Customers Sales Price Structure

Gas Pool Price Supply Margins Pipeline Tariffs + +

Power Producers 59%

: EGAT 30%

: IPP 20%

: SPP 9%

Average Purchased Gas Price

1.75%

1.75%

9.33%

21.8 Bt/MMBtu

GSP 21% Charged at the same price structure of power producers

Petrochemicals Feedstocks

Industry 14% Charged at prices comparable to fuel oil

Gas prices are mostly agreed under long-term contracts and volatility pass-through to ensure stable returns.

NGV 6% Capped at 10.5 Baht/Kg

Ethane, Propane, LPG Profit-sharing mechanism based on market prices of petrochemicals

NGL Reference to Naphtha market price

Local Cooking Gas Capped at 333 USD/ton

• Contract periods are ~ 25-30 years or until depletion of gas fields or the expiration of concessions

Documents

ANALYST MEETING Q2/2012ptt.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/2012-Q2_Analyst Meeting.pdf · 2012. 9. 6. · 1H/2012 Highlights 2 1 EMG ระหว่างการฟ้องร้อง