詹姆士看天下 2015/02/24

Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.

2015/02/24


124.26108.55

59.52

37.2654.80

2

2008

2014 () -34.64% -15.70%

-36.09% -7.28%

-21.11% -12.76%

-9.52% -5.56% -18.82% -5.58%

Bloomberg() 2014/12/312005/12/31

%


Bloomberg 1bp=0.01% :2015/2/23

3

(%) (bp) (bp) (bp)

4.15 391 373 297

6.48 471 456 335

10.15 902 912 461

4.05 253 251 218

() ()()()()


2/16

: Bloomberg 2015/2/23

4

(%)

5.65

(&)

4.15

6.48

%

%

10.15

-0.39

-0.1

-0.03

0.03

0.14

0.2

0.43

0.46

0.61

0.69

-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8


1.6 1.4 0.6

0.2

0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5

2.0 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.2

-0.4

-2.5 -3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

5


MSCI MSCI

(%)

Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.6

l l

-3.4

9.3

-5.5

-0.6

-7.5

-3.2 -1.3

0.6 0.4 0.3

-0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -1.4 -1.5

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

10 12

CR

B

(%)


118.81

$1201.63

2.057% $49.45 $1.1335


3.8

3.0 2.6

2.3 1.9

1.7 1.5 1.5 1.3

0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

-0.2 -0.6

-0.9

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

7

: Bloomberg 2015/2/23 ==225=

(%)


(3.8%)

(3.0%)10%

(2.6%)117%20071826115

8


9

Bloomberg


10

() Bloomberg : 2015/2/23()


11

() Bloomberg : 2015/2/23 ()


: Bloomberg

12

2/23()

2/24()

2 99.5 102.9

1CPI -1.6% -0.1%

7.50% 7.75%

2/25()1 47.0 48.1

2PMI 49.5 49.7

2/26()

1CPI -0.6% -0.4%

1 1.6% -3.4%

1M3 3.7% 3.6%

2/27()

2 2.0% -3.7%

2 94.0 93.6

GDP 2.0% 2.6%


QE

317

3OPEC40501200

13


(60%)

3

15

1519

(40%)

QE

QE

(2015/2/24)

14


1272824

434

23244

15


2332A 4%4%202%2.5% GDP 4.9%17GDP4.9%32.6%2.2%

11737.75%7.5%255.5%

16


20Baa3Ba1(Fitch)

21Zholobok1213952

17


1 0.2% 0.3% -0.3%

1 106.5 107.0 108.7

1 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%

2Markit 54.3 53.6 53.9

1 0.3% 0.4% 0.5%

2ZEW 53.0 55.0 48.4

2 50.9 51.5 50.9

2 -6.7 -7.5 -8.5

2 51.1 51.5 51.0

: Bloomberg

18


2014GDP 0.6% 0.9% -0.6%

GDP 3.35% 3.20% 3.17%

1 -0.39% 0.11% 0.11%

11 10.7% 10.5% 10.4%

1 5.5% 5.7% 5.3%

GDP 2.6% 2.6% 2.2%

: Bloomberg

19


(%) 23 13

MSCI 1770.35 1.04 3.67 1.91 1.98 3.55 6.66 2109.66 0.60 2.82 2.24 6.10 2.47 14.89

1231.83 0.71 3.61 5.07 6.16 2.25 5.77 385.08 2.12 3.97 11.54 14.35 12.42 14.58

261.28 1.82 5.61 15.15 15.61 13.17 11.07 225 18466.92 3.09 5.31 6.24 18.67 5.67 24.29

4527.17 2.41 2.25 7.72 13.78 3.03 25.13

3246.91 1.34 -3.84 32.18 44.99 0.38 53.22 MSCI 983.47 -0.32 -0.75 -2.08 -9.20 2.84 2.52

MSCI 473.92 -0.18 -0.91 3.60 -3.37 3.59 9.49 MSCI 315 -2.11 1.55 -13.58 -23.06 6.21 -23.99 MSCI 2634.63 -0.49 -3.20 -15.92 -24.92 -3.41 -10.47 MSCI 286.86 -0.71 2.15 -7.84 -12.94 5.94 -8.16

Bloomberg 122.03 -0.03 -1.31 1.63 2.76 0.72 5.19 Bloomberg 133.86 0.14 0.44 1.81 3.20 1.16 7.56 Bloomberg 138.68 0.20 -0.64 2.36 2.25 1.43 6.74

Bloomberg 147.88 0.43 2.29 -1.04 -3.74 1.07 -0.99 Bloomberg 153.22 0.46 2.26 0.17 -1.62 2.26 1.93 Bloomberg 162.51 0.69 1.29 2.28 2.39 2.29 6.03 ETF 47.98 0.61 2.09 -1.43 -3.10 2.32 0.42

Bloomberg 142.17 -0.10 0.12 -1.08 -1.32 0.95 5.44 Bloomberg 125.52 -0.39 -1.05 -1.19 -1.01 0.88 4.74 Bloomberg 150.91 0.03 -0.11 2.65 5.05 2.32 13.33

Bloomberg 2015/2/23

20


(%) () 23 13

MSCI 237.63 -2.43 3.30 -10.05 -19.87 -0.08 -13.21 MSCI 237.82 0.69 7.47 2.25 -4.72 6.62 -3.22

MSCI 103.43 0.52 3.73 -0.39 -0.65 0.65 2.32 MSCI 197.27 1.67 6.57 7.15 8.92 5.94 9.98 MSCI 208.11 1.32 1.14 3.01 6.01 4.10 11.31

MSCI 207.37 1.87 4.39 2.22 2.32 4.04 4.00 MSCI 147.46 1.47 4.18 4.03 7.89 4.37 18.27 MSCI 71.29 -0.42 1.90 0.13 0.89 4.29 0.82 MSCI 120.10 1.16 -3.59 -3.59 0.02 -2.41 3.78 MSCI 213.24 2.48 2.75 5.34 11.70 6.68 16.18 NBI 3534.92 4.46 4.71 12.68 27.00 11.25 24.41

AMEX 185.09 -3.06 -5.75 6.93 -22.27 12.84 -24.91 REITs FTSE 14957.86 0.31 -2.69 7.84 12.39 4.98 25.48 REITs FTSE 1828.64 0.35 -3.03 8.93 13.82 5.33 26.95 REITs FTSE 1467.13 0.22 2.71 20.38 24.47 17.07 36.64 REITs FTSE 1567.26 -0.29 -1.91 5.20 -0.47 3.04 15.37

(/) 1201.63 -2.26 -7.04 0.49 -6.02 1.53 -10.02 (/) 16.34 -5.90 -8.75 -0.80 -15.53 4.08 -25.58

(/) 5672.00 -1.10 2.76 -15.66 -19.84 -9.97 -20.73 (/) 58.90 -4.26 21.09 -25.85 -42.24 3.05 -46.60 (/) 49.45 -6.31 8.47 -34.75 -47.20 -7.17 -51.91

CRB 221.97 -3.15 2.47 -16.93 -23.11 -3.48 -26.55 911.39 -1.94 -0.61 -5.73 -7.45 -5.52 -16.15


21


(%) 23 13

1.1335 -0.52 0.85 -8.91 -14.09 -6.32 -17.49 118.81 -0.05 -0.38 -0.54 -12.50 0.73 -13.79 1.5457 0.40 2.47 -1.62 -6.80 -0.81 -7.23

0.9498 -1.89 -5.03 1.66 -3.71 4.59 -6.49 1.2571 -0.99 -0.80 -10.30 -12.65 -7.58 -12.04 0.7802 0.52 -1.56 -9.48 -16.09 -4.57 -13.66

1108.74 -1.08 -2.41 0.46 -7.89 -1.49 -2.97 31.7090 -0.83 -1.21 -2.41 -5.39 -0.17 -4.17

6.2565 -0.26 -0.44 -1.82 -1.64 -0.82 -2.54 12836.00 -0.30 -2.94 -5.32 -8.74 -3.49 -9.25

62.3150 -0.19 -1.41 -0.61 -2.81 1.17 -0.40 32.5580 0.16 0.02 0.82 -1.81 1.07 -0.07

1.3596 -0.32 -1.10 -4.18 -8.07 -2.52 -7.13 3.6372 -1.61 -0.36 -7.73 -12.94 -3.74 -9.61

44.2720 0.03 -0.23 1.64 -0.99 1.01 0.72

11.6350 0.27 -1.44 -5.25 -7.94 -0.51 -7.17 2.4748 -0.72 -4.86 -9.87 -11.97 -5.63 -11.09 63.7045 -0.41 7.25 -29.75 -43.34 -4.84 -44.42 3.6883 -0.40 1.66 -8.58 -14.04 -3.95 -17.92 269.62 -0.25 2.58 -8.88 -11.95 -2.99 -16.36

3.9254 -0.58 1.41 -9.25 -15.15 -5.72 -16.35

2.8786 -1.55 -10.37 -11.55 -20.50 -7.68 -18.67

15.0896 -1.37 -3.42 -9.51 -12.87 -2.26 -12.13 8.7089 -0.30 -0.94 -2.22 -3.50 -2.80 -9.83


22


(%) () (bp)

23 13

30 2.6572 12.9 28.4 -36.3 -49.9 -9.5 -104.1

10 2.0574 10.1 26.1 -24.9 -34.5 -11.4 -68.1

0.3830 4.4 14.9 -7.9 -12.7 5.4 -21.3

0.3650 -1.0 0.3 -40.5 -61.7 -17.6 -129.7 0.3650 -1.0 0.3 -40.5 -61.7 -17.6 -129.7 0.6590 4.5 11.6 -45.2 -71.0 -16.7 -159.7

1.4960 -8.2 -3.1 -71.7 -108.0 -39.4 -210.3 1.4190 -7.0 4.4 -59.4 -96.3 -19.2 -212.9 2.1360 -27.8 -31.4 -86.5 -110.1 -55.1 -279.0

2.2830 7.2 19.8 -20.4 -87.0 -23.5 -215.4 7.9500 33.0 98.0 -30.0 -147.0 -7.0 -248.0 12.2141 -17.9 -144.9 206.1 283.6 -79.3 370.9 3.2400 24.0 40.0 -37.0 -123.0 -36.0 -278.0

7.6620 21.3 48.7 -5.5 -54.0 -30.7 -96.7

12.7580 29.7 104.1 55.4 109.0 39.4 -18.8

5.5630 -5.3 24.3 -29.2 -24.2 -28.1 -80.6

2.4270 16.0 9.5 -30.3 -71.7 -17.8 -110.3 7.1770 2.1 -10.6 -54.7 -107.1 -61.9 -133.8 7.7050 0.1 -0.1 -45.8 -81.0 -15.2 -118.0

9 2.7140 19.3 23.8 -11.4 -77.9 11.3 -121.2


23


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Economy & Finance

詹姆士看天下 2015/02/24