Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
The Theory of Economics does not furnish a body of settled conclusions immediately applicable to policy. It is a method rather than a doctrine, an apparatus of the mind, a technique of thinking which helps its possessor to draw correct conclusions.
经济学的理论并不包括一组已经被认证的结论可以即刻用于解释政府的决策。它是一个方法而不是一个教条。它是人思想发出的工具，是一种思考的技术，让拥有人能够用它后达到正确的结论。(From: The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money)
NOT Tell the Truth Tell the Truth
1 Essayquestion
1 Essayquestion
4 Essayquestions
0 Essayquestions
0 Essayquestions
4 Essayquestions
2 Essay questions
2 Essayquestions
Tell the Truth
NOT Tell the TruthPlayer
2 Choices
Player 1 Choices Game Theory Prisoner’s Dilemma囚犯困境
Ian’s Fish Game
11
2 2
33
44
55
66
77
8 89
9
10 1
0111
212
131
113
14
14
15
15
16 1
6
sunnyheavy rain
$ 20 28.517.3
healthy
3,4,6,11,159
266
11 2 2
3
34
4
55
66
77 8 8
99
10 1
0111
212
131
113
14 1
4
15
15
16
16
heavy rainperfect
$ 20 21.813
healthy
111197
1 2
5
8
9
12
13
15
11 2 2
334
4
55
66
77
88
99
10 1
0
11
12 1
2
13
11
13
14 1
4
15
15
16 1
6
perfectcloudy
$ 20 31.319
healthy
210276
1 25
8
9
12
13
15
1 22
45
6
7
8
10
13 1
3
14
15
15
16
11
3 4
8
11
15 1
6
cloudycloudy
$ 18 2414.6
healthy
133226
1
5
9
1
2
6
7
10
13 1
3
14
1
1 22
2
22
22
33
444
55
5
66
77
7
88
88
8
99
10
10 1
0 10
11 1
112 1
2
12
12
13 1
3
13
13
13
141
4
14
151
5
15
15
151
5151
5
16 1
6
16
16
11
3 4
8
11 1
6
light rainheavy rain
$ 18 2313.7healthy
137198
1
5
1
2
6
7
10
13 1
3
14
1
1 22
2
22
22
33
44
45
5
5
66
7 77
8
88
8
9
10
10 1
010
11 1
1
12
12
12
12
13 1
3
13
13
13
141
4
14
15
16 1
6
16
16
1 11
22
22
3
3
44
5
5
66
77
99
10
11 1
1
12 1
2
13
13 1
3 13
15 1
5 15 1
5
15 1
5 15 1
5 15
15 1
5 15 1
5
16
16
16
11
34
8
hurricanecloudy
$ 17 2012
unhealthy
815133
1
5
1
2
6
710
13
13
14
1
1 22
2
22
22
33
44
5
55
66
7 77
8
8
88
9
10
10
10
10
12 1
2 12
12
13 1
313
13
13
141
4
14
15
1 11 2
22
2
3
3
55
6
6
77
910
12 1
2
13
13 1
3 13
15 1
5 15 1
5
15 1
5 15 1
5 15
15 1
5 15
16
healthy1
111
1 2
22
44
4
44
46
77
99
10
12 1
2
12
13 1
3 13 1
3 13
13
141
4
10
151
5 15 1
5 15 1
5
151
5
16 1
6 16
16 1
6 16 1
616
16 1
616
11 1
1 11
11 1
1
11
11
11
partly cloudycloudy
$ 12 24.615
unhealthy
813, 15
86
11
11
11
11
11
11
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
2
33
3
33
33
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
555
55
5
66
66
6
6
7 7
77
77
77
77
88
88
88
89
99
99
9
10 1
0 10 1
0
10 1
0 10 1
0
11 1
1 11
11 1
1 11
11 1
1 11
11 1
1 11
12 1
2 12
12 1
2 12
12 1
2 12
12 1
2
12 1
2 12
13 1
3 13 1
3 13
13 1
3 13 1
3 131
3 13 1
3 13 1
3
13 1
3 13 1
3 13
13 1
3 13
14 1
4
14
14 1
4
14 1
4 14
14
15 1
5 15 1
5
15 1
5 15 1
5
15 1
5 15 1
5
16 1
6 16 1
6 16
16 1
6 16 1
6 16
16 1
6 16 1
6
3
sunnyperfect
$ 18 11.215.2
critical
815, 16
37
11
11
1
2
22
22
22
2
22
22
22
22
2
33
3
33
33
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
555
55
5
66
6
6
66
7 7
77
77
77
7
88
8
88
89
99
99
9 10 1
0 10 1
0
10 1
0 10
10
11 1
1 11
12 1
2 12
12 1
2 12
12 1
2 12
12
12
12
12 1
3 13 1
3 13
13
13 1
3 13 1
3
15 1
5 15 1
5
15 1
5 15 1
5
15 1
5 15
15
16 1
6 16 1
6 16
16 1
6 16 1
6 16
16
16 1
6 16
11
111 2
22
555
33
333
33
3
6
78
99
9
9
9
10 1
0
10 1
010
10
13
15
15 1
5 15
15
15 1
5 15
15 1
4 14 1
4
14 1
4 14
14 1
4
14 1
4 14
14
16 1
6
16 1
6 16
16 1
6 16
16 1
6 16 1
6
16 1
6
11 1
1 11
11 1
1 11
11 1
1 11
11 1
1 11
11 1
1 11
3
sunnyperfect
$ 23 3.518
critical
122,320
2
22
22
22
2
22
22
22
22
2
33
3
33
33
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
555
55
5
6
66
6
66
7 7
77
77
77
7
88
88
89
99
99
9
10
10 1
0 10
10
11 1
1
1212
1212
13
13 1
3 13
13 1
3
16 1
6 16 1
6 16
16 1
6 16 1
6 16
16
16 1
6 16
22
2
555
33
333
33
3
6
78
9
10 1
0
10 1
010
10
13
14 1
4 14
1414 1
4
14 1
4
14 1
4 14
14
16 1
6
16 1
6 16
16 1
6 16
16 1
6 16 1
6
16 1
6
11 1
1 11
11 1
1 11
11 1
1
11
1111
1111
13.) Trump’s Royal Fishing Adam
1 = 13.) Trump Adam
Bankrupt
22
55
556
66
7
7
8 88
99
9
9
10 1
0
10
11
111
1
12 1
2 12 1
2 12
12 1
2 12 1
2 12
12 1
2 12 1
2 12121
212
13
13
13 1
3 13
13 1
3 131
3 13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
1313 1
3
3
rainsunny
$ 30 0.616.5
critical
1210
121
33
3
66
66
66
77
77
77
77
78 8
88
8
9
10
10 1
0 10
10
33
333
67
8
9
10 1
010 1
010
10
14 1
4 14
1414 1
4
14 1
4
14 1
4 14
14
11 1
1 11
11 1
1 11
11 1
1
13.) Trump’s Royal Fishing Adam
1 = 13.) Trump Adam
Bankrupt
6
66
7
7
8 88
10 1
0
10
12 1
2 12 1
2 12
12 1
2 12 1
2 12
12 1
2 12 1
2 12121
212
13
13 1
3
13
13
13Bankrupt
Bankrupt
12 1
2 12 1
2 1212
12
12
12
12
12
12
12 1
2 12
12 1
2 12
12 1
2 121
212
12
333
3
33
333
333
3
33
333
3 3
33
3
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
7 7
99
9
99
99
9
9
555
55
55
555
555
55
55
55
5511 1
1
11 1
111 1
1
11 1
111 1
1
13 1
3 13 1
3 13 1
3 13
13 1
3 13 1
3 13 1
3 13
13 1
3 13 1
3 13 1
3 13
3
deathsunny
$ 32 0.61
empty
7everyone
0
33
3
66
66
66
77
77
77
77
78 8
88
89
10
10 1
0 10
10
33
3
3
3
67
8
9
10 1
0
101
0
10
10
14 1
4 14
1414 1
4
14 1
4
14 1
4 14
14
11 1
1 11
11 1
1 11
11 1
1
13.) Trump’s Royal Fishing Adam
1 = 13.) Trump Adam
Bankrupt
6
66
7
7
8 88
10 1
010
12 1
2 12 1
2 12
12 1
2 12 1
2 12
12 1
2 12 1
2 12121
212
13
13 1
3
13
13
13Bankrupt
Bankrupt
12 1
2 12 1
2 1212
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12 1
212
12 1
2 121
2
12
12
333
3
33
333
333
3
33
333
3 3
33
3
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
7 7
99
9
99
99
9
9
555
55
55
555
555
55
55
55
5511 1
1
11 1
111 1
1
11 1
111 1
1
13 1
3 13 1
3 13 1
3 13
13 1
3 13 1
3 13 1
3 13
13 1
3 13 1
3 13 1
3 13
Bankrupt
Bankrupt
14 1
4 14
14
7461 640
5
1286982
8179
6632
5075
639
Bankrupt -427
-2857
6765
sunnyheavy rain
$ 20 28.617.1
healthy 252
1,4,57
11
2
2 33
44 5
5
66
7
7
8 89
9101
0111
1121
2
13 1
3
14 1
4
15
15
16
16
heavy rainperfect
$ 20 21.912.9
healthy 193
147
1 1
22 33
44
5 5
66
7
7
88
99
10
11
12
13 1
3
14 1
4
15
15
16 1
6
2
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
perfectmostly sunny
$ 20 31.518.7
healthy 278
147
1 2 3
45
6
7
10 1
1
14
14 1
5
16 1
6
6
78 9
11
12
13
14
11
22
33
44
55 6
6
88
99
10
10 1
1
12 1
4
13 1
3
1515
sunny rain
$ 18 27.216.1
healthy 253
147
12
3
45
6
14
16
78
66
9
10
11
12
13
15
11
11 2
2333
3
44
44 5
5
66
67
88
8
99
910
10
10
11 1
1
12 1
2
13 1
3
131
4 14
14 1
4 14
16
15
15
cloudy heavy storm
$ 18 25.715.3
healthy 226
147
1 2
3
4
56
14 1
6
7
866
9
11
12
13
11
11
22
333
3
44
44
55
66
6
7
88
8
9 9
9
10
11 1
1
12 1
2
13
13
13
14 1
4
14 1
4 14
16
1
11 2
22
33
44
4
55
6
6
7
88
9 9
10 1
0
10 1
0 10
14 1
4
14
12 1
2
11 1
113
13
15 1
5
15
16
hurricane sunny
$ 17 2012
healthy 143
612
11
11
11
11
11
11
22 2
22
22
23
33
3
33
33
44
44
44
44
44 4
4
55
55
66
66
6
66
67 7
7 7
8 88
89
99
9
99
99
10 1
0 10
10 1
0 10 1
0
11 1
1 11 1
1 11
11 1
1
12 1
2
1212
12121212
8
88
8
5
5
55
13 1
3 13
13
13
13 1
3
13
14 1
4 14 1
4 14
14 1
4 14 1
4
14 1
4 14 1
4
14
15 1
5 15
15
16
16
16
16
16
sunny light rain
$ 18 28.717.2
unhealthy
195
147
11
11
1
11
11
1
11
11
1
22
22
22
22
33
33
3
33
33
33
44
4
44
4
44
4
44
44
444
4 4 55
55
55
55
55
556
66
66
66
6
77 7
77
88
88
88
88
88
88
8
99
99
99
99
99
99
10
1010
10
10 1
011 1
1 11 1
111
11 1
1 11 1
1
11 1
1
13 1
3 13 1
3
13 1
3 13 1
3 13
13
13
14 1
4 14 1
4 14
14 1
4 14 1
4 14
14 1
4 14 1
4 14
15
15 1
5 15
16
16 1
6 161
2 12
12
12 1
2 12 1
2
12 1
2 12 1
2
cloudy heavy rain$ 11 10.1
12.5unhealth
y44
134
11
11
1
11
11
1
11
11
1
22
22
22
22
33
33
3
33
33
33
44
4
44
4
44
4
44
44
444
4 4 55
55
55
55
55
556
66
66
66
6
77 7
77
88
88
8
8
88
88
8
88
9
9
10
1010
10
10 1
011 1
1 11
11
11 1
1 11
11
11
11
13
13
13
13
131
313
13
13
13
13
14 1
4 14 1
4 14
14 1
4 14 1
4 14
14 1
4 14 1
4 14
151
515
16
1616
11
1
1
1 11
1
22
22
3
33 33
3
4
44
44
44
4
4
66
7
10
99
9912
1212
12
1212
1212
12 12
12
14 1
4 14 1
4
14 1
4 14
15 1
515
16 1
6
161
6 161
6
9
9
9
9
9
9
perfect sunny
$ 18 5.215
critical 24
64
11
11
11
11
11
11
13
33
33
44
4
44
4
44
4
44
44
444
4 4
5 555
55
5
77 7
77
88
88
8
8
88
88
8
88 9
10
1010
10
10 1
011 1
1 11
11
11 1
1 11
11 1
111
13
13
13
13
13
131
313
13
13
13
14 1
4 14 1
4 14
14 1
4 14 1
4 14
14 1
4 14 1
4 14
151
5 15
16
1616
2
33 3
4
44
44
44
4
4
7
10
99
1212
1212
1212
1212
12 12
12
14 1
4 14 1
4
14 1
4 14
15 1
515
16 1
6
161
6 16
11
11
11
11
1
1
22
2
22
2
22
22
22
2 3333
3335
5
55
5
55
5
66
66
6
6 66
66
6
6
79
9
99
999
99
14
14
14
141
4
141
4 14 1
4 14
14 1
4 141
61616
16
15 1
5
15
rain sunny$ 26 3
15.2critical 109
515
1
33
33
3
78
88
88
8
88
88
8
88
9
10
10
10
10 1
010
11
11
11
111
111
11
111
1
11
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
14 1
4 14 1
4 14
14 1
4 14 1
4 14
14
14 1
4 14 1
4
15
15
15
16
16
16
2
33 3
10
9
9
1212
1212
1212
1212
12 12
12
14 1
4 14 1
4
14 1
4 14
15
15
151
6 16
16
16
16
11
11
11
11
12
2
222
22
22
2
2
22
3
333
33
3
66
66
6
66
66
6
99
9
99
99
9
9
14
14
14
141
414
14 1
4 14 1
4
14 1
4 14
16
1616
16
15 1
5
15
Bankrupt1 11
11
11
11
1
5
5
55
55
5 555
55
5 555
55
5 555
555 5
55
55
5 555
55
5
5
5
5
55
55
11
1
777777
715 1
5 15
13
13
death sunny$ 30 3.3
0empty 0
515
1
33
33
3
78
88
88
8
88
8
88
88
11
11
11
111
111
11
111
1
11
13
13
13
13
13 1
313
13
141
4 141
4
141
414
141
414
14
14
14
14 1
4
15
15
15
16
16
16
2
33 3
14 1
4 14 1
4
14 1
4 14
15
15 1
5
161
6 16
16
16
11
11
11
11
12
2
222
2
2
22
22
22
3
333
33
3
666
6
66666
6
9
14
14
14
141
414
14 1
4 14 1
4
14 1
4 14
16
1616
16
15 1
5
15
Bankrupt1 11
11
11
11
1
5
5
55
55
5 555
55
5 555
55
5 555
555 5
55
55
5 555
55
5
5
5
5
55
55
111
777777
7
15
15 1
5
13
13
999
99999999
9999
99999
99
99
99
99
9
9
13
Bankrupt
Bankrupt
Bankrupt -1358
15842013
4622
8908
2028-378
0
110
462964296765
727-389
1266
Left Game Data:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120
50
100
150
200
250
22 15
4767
90 91
137
175158
401910 18
8 11 12
49 48 4763
184
209
LEFT GAME - Fishing Decisions
Ships to the Deep Ships to the Coast
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120
50
100
150
200
250
22 15
4766
90 91
137
175158
401910 18
8 11 12
49 48 4763
184
209
32 3355
77
102
140
185
222 221 224 228
LEFT GAME - Fishing Decisions
Ships to the Deep Ships to the Coast Total Ships
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 110
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
28.8
22
31.3
24.2 2320
24.6
11.2
3.50.6
0.06
17.3
13
19
14.6 13.712
15 15.218
16.5
1
LEFT GAME – Average catch per ship
Deep average Coast average
* Hurricane
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 110
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
28.8
22
31.3
24.2 2320
24.6
11.2
3.50.6
0.06
17.3
13
1914.6 13.7
1215 15.2
1816.5
1
2020
20
18 18 17
12
18
23
3032
LEFT GAME – Average catch per ship
Deep average Coast average Price
* Hurricane * Negative demand shock
* Positive demand shock
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 110
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
629394
1473 1603
20701820
3375
1970
555
27 12173 234 152 161 289
588 720 719
1134
3036
215
LEFT GAME –Total Fish Catch Amounts
Deep Catch Coast Catch
* Hurricane * Deep stocks critical
* Coast stocks critical
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
11871 1197711004
9901
8354
5913
3375
707154
131 123
6127 6193 6341 6480 6491
62035783
40873252
216 1
LEFT GAME – Fish Populations
Deep Coast
* Deep stocks critical
* Coast stocks critical
Right Game Data:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
50
100
150
200
250
19 11
4354
7768
140
166
118
16
40
11 174 8 16
4426
39
105
217
158
RIGHT GAME - Fishing Decisions
Ships to the Deep Ships to the Coast
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
50
100
150
200
250
19 11
4354
7768
140
166
118
16
40
1117
4 8 16
4426
39
105
217
158
3028 47
62
93112
166
205223
233
198
RIGHT GAME - Fishing Decisions
Ships to the Deep Ships to the Coast Total Ships
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
28.6
21.9
31.3
27.225.7
20
28.7
10.1
5.23 3.3
17.1
13
18.716.1 15.3
12
17.2
12.515 15.2
0
RIGHT GAME – Average catch per ship
Deep average Coast average
* Hurricane
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
28.6
21.9
31.3
27.225.7
20
28.7
10.1
5.23 3.3
17.1
13
18.716.1 15.3
12
17.212.5 15 15.2
0
20
2020
18 18
17
18
11
18
26
30
RIGHT GAME – Average catch per ship
Deep average Coast average Price
* Hurricane * Negative demand shock
* Positive demand shock
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
545 395
1348 1474
1986
1360
4025
1690
625
48 134189 221 75 129 245528 449 491
1575
3315
0
RIGHT GAME –Total Fish Catch Amounts
Deep Catch Coast Catch
* Deep stocks critical
* Coast stocks critical
* Hurricane
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
11523 1123710133
9090
76506802
2908
1268669 646 533
5839 5675 5660 5601 5451 5072 4823 4590
3315
0 0
RIGHT GAME – Fish Populations
Deep Coast
* Deep stocks critical
* Coast stocks critical
Was the game realistic?
Does fish depletion 折耗 happen in real life as it did it this game?
• Pacific sardine fishery
• Peruvian anchovy fishery
• North Sea Herring
A few examples:
Pacific Sardine Catch
Catc
h (t
hous
and
tons
)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1916
1920
1924
1928
1932
1936
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1916
1952
1988
1968
Peruvian Anchovy Catch
YEAR
CATC
H (
Mill
ions
of
Tons
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
Estimated Maximum Sustainable Catch
1960
1973
1983
1990
North Sea Herring Catch
a
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
North Seaherring ban
1950
1966
1978
Total World Fish Catch
1950
2012
1980
NOT Fish Fish as much all of it as possible
Chance of losing
Chance of losing
Lose the game
Win the game
Win the game
Lose the game
Destroy ocean
Destroy ocean
Player 2 Choices
Player 1 Choices
Fish as much as possible
NOT Fish
all of it
Game Theory Prisoner’s Dilemma囚犯的困境
Common resources have the biggest problem of these goods types.
Private Goods
Common
Resource
Natural Monopolies
Public Goods
Classification and Good Types
Excludable Non-Excludable
Rival
Non-Rival
- occurs when a user depletes the amount of the common resource available to others but does not take this cost into account when deciding how much to use the common resource.
Common Resources –The Tragic Overuse Problem
Overuse
In simpler words:
We’re using too damn much stuff!!!
Problems of the Non-Excludables
Common Resources –The Tragic Overuse ProblemOveruse
Tragedy of the Commons公地悲剧
- It is the absence of incentives to prevent the overuse and depletion of a commonly owned resource.
In the case of a common resource, the marginal social cost of my use of that resource is higher than my individual marginal cost
Problems of the Non-Excludables
Examples – through the earth
Amount
Sustainability
Tragedy of the Commons 公地悲剧 Sheep Grazing land
Maximum sustainable amount
Sustainability 可持续发展
Problems of the Non-Excludables
NOT Fish Fish as much all of it as possible
Chance of losing Lose the game
Win the game Destroy ocean Fish as much as possible
NOT Fish
all of itYour Choice
Their Choice
NOT Fish Fish as much all of it as possible
Chance of losing Win the game
Lose the game Destroy ocean
Your Choice
Their Choice
Fish as much as possible
NOT Fish
all of it
NOT Fish Fish as much all of it as possible
Chance of losing
Chance of losing
Lose the game
Win the game
Win the game
Lose the game
Destroy ocean
Destroy ocean
Player 2 Choices
Player 1 Choices
Fish as much as possible
NOT Fish
all of it
Game Theory Prisoner’s Dilemma囚犯的困境
{
{
NOT Build Build
Very safe(good)
Most unsafe(worst)
Most Safe(best)
Not safe(ok-risky)
Build
NOT BuildAmeric
a
Russia
NOT Build Build
(good)Very safe
(best)Most safe
(worst)Most unsafe
(ok-risky)Not safe
Build
NOT BuildAmeric
a
Russia
NOT Build Build
Very safe(good)
(good)Very safe
Most unsafe(worst)
(best)Most safe
Most Safe(best)
(worst)Most unsafe
Not safe(ok-risky)
(ok-risky)Not safe
Fish as much as possible
NOT Fish
all of it
Game Theory Prisoner’s Dilemma囚犯的困境
America
Russia
The Theory of Economics does not furnish a body of settled conclusions immediately applicable to policy. It is a method rather than a doctrine, an apparatus of the mind, a technique of thinking which helps its possessor to draw correct conclusions.
经济学的理论并不包括一组已经被认证的结论可以即刻用于解释政府的决策。它是一个方法而不是一个教条。它是人思想发出的工具，是一种思考的技术，让拥有人能够用它后达到正确的结论。(From: The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money)
