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TOWARDS AN EU
REFERENDUM
22 JUNE 2015
Tom Clarkson @tomclarkson15
Tom Mludzinski @tom_ComRes
IN OR OUT?
THE HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Oct
-77
24
-May
-78
29
-Mar
-79
Mar
-80
19
-23
Mar
ch 1
981
Mar
-83
7-8
Ju
ne
19
84
12
-16
Sep
tem
ber
19
87
19
89
No
v-9
0
21
-Ju
n-9
1
4-5
Dec
emb
er 1
99
1
5-6
Ju
ne
19
92
10
-13
Ju
ne
19
92
21
-25
Oct
ob
er 1
99
3
11
-30
Ap
ril 1
994
23
-26
May
19
96
27
-29
No
vem
ber
19
96
15
-Ap
r-97
25
-28
Ap
ril 1
997
2-3
Oct
ob
er 1
99
7
13
-14
No
vem
ber
19
97
25
-30
Ju
ne
19
98
21
-24
May
19
99
10
-11
Ju
ne
19
99
13
-14
Oct
ob
er 1
99
9
27
-29
Oct
ob
er 1
99
9
22
-27
Ju
ne
20
00
29
-30
Sep
tem
ber
20
00
24
-25
No
vem
ber
20
00
15
-21
Mar
ch 2
001
30
Ap
ril -
1 M
ay 2
00
1
22
-May
-01
20
-22
Ju
ne
20
03
20
-22
Sep
tem
ber
20
07
22
-24
Oct
ob
er 2
01
1
10
-13
No
vem
ber
20
12
10
-12
May
20
14
11
-14
Oct
ob
er 2
01
4
In Out
Source: Ipsos MORI
THE STATE OF PLAY
Leave
33%
16%
ComRes Tracker Question
Q: “If a referendum were held tomorrow on whether or not the UK should stay in or leave the European
Union (EU), how would you vote?”
Base: Telephone poll of 1,000 GB adults 29-31 May 2015. Split sample: 500 adults asked each version of the version
Stay in
51%
HOW IMPORTANT IS QUESTION WORDING?
5
Yes
58%
11%
Proposed Government Wording of Referendum Question
Q: “If a referendum were held tomorrow, how would you vote on the following question: Should the
United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?”
No
31%
LESSONS FROM SCOTLAND
6
Source: What Scotland Thinks 15 September 2014
STRENGTH OF THE STATUS QUO
IMPORTANCE OF CLEAR OUTCOMES
STRENGTH OF NEGATIVE MESSAGES, ALLIED TO POSITIVE VISION
AV REFERENDUM: A WARNING AGAINST COMPLACENCY
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
AV FPTP
Source: UK Polling Report
THE POLITICAL
CONTEXT
EUROPE IS A LOW PRIORITY RELATIVE TO OTHER ISSUES
9
49%
44%
23%
20% 20%18% 18% 17% 16% 16%
10%
Managing the
NHS
Controlling
immigration
Keeping down
the cost of
everyday items
Promoting
economic
growth
Making sure
the benefits of
economic
growth are felt
by all
Making the
welfare system
fairer
Reducing the
Government’s
budget deficit
Providing
adequate care
for the elderly
Redefining
Britain's
relationship
with the EU
Improving
housing
affordability
Improving the
education
system
Q. Which of the following do you think should be the biggest priorities for the Government at the present time? Please select up to three. Base: British adults (n=2,036), April 2015
CONSERVATIVE ECONOMIC TRUST
10
40
28
33
19
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
octo
bre
, 2
01
0novem
bre
, 2
010
décem
bre
, 2
01
0ja
nvie
r, 2
01
1fé
vri
er,
2011
mars
, 2
011
avri
l, 2
011
mai, 2
01
1ju
in,
201
1ju
ille
t, 2
01
1août,
20
11
septe
mbre
, 20
11
octo
bre
, 2
01
1novem
bre
, 2
011
décem
bre
, 2
01
1ja
nvie
r, 2
01
2fé
vri
er,
2012
mars
, 2
012
avri
l, 2
012
mai, 2
01
2ju
in,
201
2ju
ille
t, 2
01
2août,
20
12
septe
mbre
, 20
12
octo
bre
, 2
01
2novem
bre
, 2
012
décem
bre
, 2
01
2ja
nvie
r, 2
01
3fé
vri
er,
2013
mars
, 2
013
avri
l, 2
013
mai, 2
01
3ju
in,
201
3ju
ille
t, 2
01
3août,
20
13
septe
mbre
, 20
13
octo
bre
, 2
01
3novem
bre
, 2
013
décem
bre
, 2
01
3ja
nvie
r, 2
01
4fé
vri
er,
2014
mars
, 2
014
avri
l, 2
014
mai, 2
01
4ju
in,
201
4ju
ille
t, 2
01
4août,
20
14
septe
mbre
, 20
14
octo
bre
, 2
01
4novem
bre
, 2
014
décem
bre
, 2
01
4ja
nvie
r, 2
01
5fé
vri
er,
2015
mars
, 2
015
avri
l, 2
015
%
Prime Minister, David Cameron Leader of the Opposition, Ed Miliband
Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne Shadow Chancellor, Ed Balls
Q. Do you, or would you, trust each of the following politicians to see the country through the current economic situation? (% Who say yes)
UKIP: A SLOW PUNCTURE?
30
2829
31
3435
36
34
3635 35 35
3031
32
30
32
35
3233
32
35
32
34
9 9
12
8 8 89
12
87
9 9
1918
1617
13
10
12 12
1011
14
12
4
7
5
78
65
45
6
4 4
oct./2014 nov./2014 déc./2014 janv./2015 févr./2015 mars/2015 avr./2015
Base: ComRes telephone polls, c.1,000 each wave
FARAGE: A DIVISIVE FIGURE
12
38% “irritating”
37% “weird”
24%“out of touch with ordinary people”
21% “intelligent”
18%“comes across as someone like me”
22% FAVOURABLE50%
UNFAVOURABLE
ATTITUDES TOWARDS
THE EU
LOW SATISFACTION WITH THE EU
14
13%
16%
19%
19%
20%
20%
46%
26%
22%
Source: ComRes / New Direction Foundation. Q. To what extent are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the European Union in its current form?
BRITAIN WANTS LESS EU INTERFERENCE
15
7%13% 13%
18% 18% 19%
42% 44%49%
29%
38% 38%33% 37% 31%
38%28% 21%
64%
49% 49% 49%46%
49%
20%28% 30%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Involvement of the EU in the affairs of your country
More involvement About same level Less involvement
Source: ComRes / New Direction Foundation. Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your opinion?
QUO VADIS EUROPA?
16
7% 24% 44% 25%UK
11% 25% 44% 20%
22% 42% 23% 14%
5% 49% 34% 12%
23% 50% 17% 10%
6% 50% 31% 14%
45% 18% 23% 13%
20% 27% 36% 17%
37% 35% 17% 12%
A single country /a United States of Europe
Current EU model
Reduced to simply being about trade deals
between European countries
Disbanding the European Union
Source: ComRes / New Direction Foundation. Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your view of the size of the European Union (EU)?
THE CAMPAIGN
CAMPAIGN NEEDS A (RELEVANT) NAME
18
OR
FRAMING THE ISSUE EARLY
19
A FOCUSSED MESSAGE
20
IMMIGRATION LIKELY TO FEATURE
21
SOVEREIGNTY AND NATIONALISM
22
“YES” WILL NEED TO FOCUS ON UNCERTAINTY OF LIFE OUTSIDE EU
23
SECURITY OF JOBS AND THE ECONOMY
24
MESSENGER
25
CELEBRITY ENDORSEMENTS = VICTORY
WHO VOTES WINS
27
TARGETTING THOSE WHO VOTE
28
48%
48%
58%
67%
48%
56%
66%
11%
12%
10%
7%
13%
9%
8%
41%
40%
31%
26%
39%
35%
25%
DE
C2
C1
AB
55+
35-54
18-34
Stay In Don't know Leave
Q: If a referendum were held tomorrow on whether or not the UK should stay in or leave the European Union (EU) how would you vote? Base: All GB adults (n=1,011), 3-5 May 2015.
Age
Social Grade
WINNING THE BATTLE AND THE WAR
29
THANK YOU
Tom Mludzinski, Director of Political Polling
@tom_ComRes
Tom Clarkson, Research Team Leader
@tomclarkson15
