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2010 年投資邏輯報告. 2009 年中階班 第五組 組長：葉欣夫 組員：李建昇 李雙凝 游才慧 陳淑玲 郭峻嘉 林靜怡 陳 顥 楊開元 李疏祥 林泰北 邵雪津 楊順吉 指導：李建平 老師. 投資理財之觀念. 成功致富的三大要素. 成功致富的三大要素. ˙ 態度 ( 觀念 ) ˙ 執行力 ˙命運. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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2009
( )
--1. a. b.2. a. () b.//3. ()
1.
2.3.()4.() a. 30-100 b.
----
MSCI20012005 0.9() 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.96() 0.6 0.6 0.7
7208,2078% 50% 50% 50%10%20%20%+vs
2000 2001 20022003 2004 2005 20066.25%GDP
1%2%0%2007/9/182008200920092010
/ /
GDP=C+G+I+(X-M)1.2. / /
IIIIIIIV / /()()//
()CRB
/
()
/
( 3~6)
OECD4
ISM81Q FOMC 8/12 FOMC Fed 0.0%-0.25%2009/7 -17.7%-19.3%2009/8 47.4 54.147.9NFP -44.3 -24.7 2008/8
Sheet1
2009
GDPNAHBISMCPICPIPEC
Q1-5.5%0.4%37.761.21.0%52.146.630.94498-2.5%33.335.642.9%7.6%-59.80.0%1.7%1.6%
-0.4%25.056.3-0.1%54.758.333.747293.9%34.235.841.6%8.1%-65.10.2%1.8%1.8%
-0.3%26.057.3-1.1%51.651.035.61579-0.6%31.436.340.8%8.5%-66.3-0.4%1.8%1.8%
Q2-1.0%0.1%39.265.1-0.4%49.445.835.2468140.8%40.440.143.7%8.9%-53.9-0.7%1.9%1.9%
1.2%54.968.70.5%51.853.234.2477161.1%34.942.844.0%9.4%-34.5-1.3%1.8%1.8%
0.7%49.370.80.6%56.358.238.4489151.1%39.944.847.0%9.5%-46.7-1.4%1.7%1.5%
0.6%46.666.0-0.1%56.058.143.3524170.8%43.448.946.4%9.4%-24.7-2.1%1.5%
54.163.252.948.4%-21.6
Sheet2
2009
123456789101112
61.256.357.365.168.770.866.063.2
() -:-59.8-65.1-66.3-53.9-34.5-46.7-24.7-21.6
7.6%8.1%8.5%8.9%9.4%9.5%9.4%9.70%
CPI()1.7%1.8%1.8%1.9%1.8%1.7%1.5%
PEC()1.6%1.8%1.8%1.9%1.8%1.5%
-:52.154.751.649.451.856.356
-:46.658.35145.853.258.258.1
-:30.933.735.635.234.238.443.3
-:449472157468477489524
NAHB89914161517
()-2.5%3.9%-0.6%0.8%1.1%1.1%0.8%
ISM35.635.836.340.142.844.848.952.9
ISM()42.941.640.843.7444746.448.4
33.334.231.440.434.939.943.450
PMI34.534.833.936.840.74646.348.2
IFO8382.682.183.784.285.987.390.5
ZEW()-31-31-3.51331.144.839.556.1
PMI3232.132.435.439.640.545.249.2
Sheet1 (2)
2009
GDPISMCPIPEC
Q1-5.5%0.0%
0.2%
-0.4%
Q2-1.0%-0.7%
-1.3%
-1.4%
-2.1%
Sheet3
ISM
35.642.9
35.841.6
36.340.8
40.143.7
42.844
44.847
48.946.4
52.948.4
ISM
ISM()
50
2009(ISM)
34.583-31
34.882.6-31
33.982.1-3.5
36.883.713
40.784.231.1
4685.944.8
46.387.339.5
48.290.556.1
PMI
IFO
ZEW()
2009(PMIIFOZEW)
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 41.GDP/147102.(6~912~2)3.(Q2Q3)(Q1Q4)()
GDP 20% 3 ( 6.8% 13)70%
(:30)9,300 10,000 9,000 1,0600
S&P500(:500)1,000 1,100 950 1,150
NASDAQ()2,000 2,150 1,900 2,300
2000()570 640 530 700
PMI3550
GDPQ1 -4.8%Q2 -4.6%
CPI2%(5~7)0%-0.1% -0.6%
IFO 35
ZEW( 0) 4856.1
PMI19849.2
Sheet1
2009
GDPNAHBISMCPICPIPEC
Q1-5.5%0.4%37.761.21.0%52.146.630.94498-2.5%33.335.642.9%7.6%-59.80.0%1.7%1.6%
-0.4%25.056.3-0.1%54.758.333.747293.9%34.235.841.6%8.1%-65.10.2%1.8%1.8%
-0.3%26.057.3-1.1%51.651.035.61579-0.6%31.436.340.8%8.5%-66.3-0.4%1.8%1.8%
Q2-1.0%0.1%39.265.1-0.4%49.445.835.2468140.8%40.440.143.7%8.9%-53.9-0.7%1.9%1.9%
1.2%54.968.70.5%51.853.234.2477161.1%34.942.844.0%9.4%-34.5-1.3%1.8%1.8%
0.7%49.370.80.6%56.358.238.4489151.1%39.944.847.0%9.5%-46.7-1.4%1.7%1.5%
0.6%46.666.0-0.1%56.058.143.3524170.8%43.448.946.4%9.4%-24.7-2.1%1.5%
54.163.252.948.4%-21.6
Sheet2
2009
123456789101112
61.256.357.365.168.770.866.063.2
() -:-59.8-65.1-66.3-53.9-34.5-46.7-24.7-21.6
7.6%8.1%8.5%8.9%9.4%9.5%9.4%9.70%
CPI()1.7%1.8%1.8%1.9%1.8%1.7%1.5%
PEC()1.6%1.8%1.8%1.9%1.8%1.5%
-:52.154.751.649.451.856.356
-:46.658.35145.853.258.258.1
-:30.933.735.635.234.238.443.3
-:449472157468477489524
NAHB89914161517
()-2.5%3.9%-0.6%0.8%1.1%1.1%0.8%
ISM35.635.836.340.142.844.848.952.9
ISM()42.941.640.843.7444746.448.4
33.334.231.440.434.939.943.450
PMI34.534.833.936.840.74646.348.2
IFO8382.682.183.784.285.987.390.5
ZEW()-31-31-3.51331.144.839.556.1
PMI3232.132.435.439.640.545.249.2
Sheet1 (2)
2009
GDPISMCPIPEC
Q1-5.5%0.0%
0.2%
-0.4%
Q2-1.0%-0.7%
-1.3%
-1.4%
-2.1%
Sheet3
ISM
35.642.9
35.841.6
36.340.8
40.143.7
42.844
44.847
48.946.4
52.948.4
ISM
ISM()
50
2009(ISM)
34.583-31
34.882.6-31
33.982.1-3.5
36.883.713
40.784.231.1
4685.944.8
46.387.339.5
48.290.556.1
PMI
IFO
ZEW()
2009(PMIIFOZEW)
Stox5E10,000 11,000 8,000 13,000
DAX30 (NASDAQ) 10,000 11,000 8,000 13,000
BC
8
II5
10,000 11,000 8,000 13,000225
19,200 22,000 12,000 25,000
1,400 1,800 1,000 2,000KOSPI
6,700 7,384 6,100 7,603
800 1202 600 1,600
55,000 60,000 48,000 74,000
CRB250 270 186 278
() () CPI () USD [ ]() USD [ ]
950 1032 700 1300
68 73 50 80
()+()
..CRB.. 10019991157.6 657.613.6 11.99.14.23.6
=+
=+ =+
()()()()()
(GDP)
(CPI)
()
2010
Sheet1
2009
GDPNAHBISMCPICPIPEC
Q1-5.5%0.4%37.761.21.0%52.146.630.94498-2.5%33.335.642.9%7.6%-59.80.0%1.7%1.6%
-0.4%25.056.3-0.1%54.758.333.747293.9%34.235.841.6%8.1%-65.10.2%1.8%1.8%
-0.3%26.057.3-1.1%51.651.035.61579-0.6%31.436.340.8%8.5%-66.3-0.4%1.8%1.8%
Q2-1.0%0.1%39.265.1-0.4%49.445.835.2468140.8%40.440.143.7%8.9%-53.9-0.7%1.9%1.9%
1.2%54.968.70.5%51.853.234.2477161.1%34.942.844.0%9.4%-34.5-1.3%1.8%1.8%
0.7%49.370.80.6%56.358.238.4489151.1%39.944.847.0%9.5%-46.7-1.4%1.7%1.5%
0.6%46.666.0-0.1%56.058.143.3524170.8%43.448.946.4%9.4%-24.7-2.1%1.5%
54.163.252.948.4%-21.6
Sheet2
2009
123456789101112
61.256.357.365.168.770.866.063.2
() -:-59.8-65.1-66.3-53.9-34.5-46.7-24.7-21.6
7.6%8.1%8.5%8.9%9.4%9.5%9.4%9.70%
CPI()1.7%1.8%1.8%1.9%1.8%1.7%1.5%
PEC()1.6%1.8%1.8%1.9%1.8%1.5%
-:52.154.751.649.451.856.356
-:46.658.35145.853.258.258.1
-:30.933.735.635.234.238.443.3
-:449472157468477489524
NAHB89914161517
()-2.5%3.9%-0.6%0.8%1.1%1.1%0.8%
ISM35.635.836.340.142.844.848.952.9
ISM()42.941.640.843.7444746.448.4
33.334.231.440.434.939.943.450
PMI34.534.833.936.840.74646.348.2
IFO8382.682.183.784.285.987.390.5
ZEW()-31-31-3.51331.144.839.556.1
PMI3232.132.435.439.640.545.249.2
Sheet1 (2)
2009
GDPISMCPIPEC
Q1-5.5%0.0%
0.2%
-0.4%
Q2-1.0%-0.7%
-1.3%
-1.4%
-2.1%
Sheet3
ISM
35.642.9
35.841.6
36.340.8
40.143.7
42.844
44.847
48.946.4
52.948.4
ISM
ISM()
50
2009(ISM)
34.583-31
34.882.6-31
33.982.1-3.5
36.883.713
40.784.231.1
4685.944.8
46.387.339.5
48.290.556.1
PMI
IFO
ZEW()
2009(PMIIFOZEW)
ECFA-- MOU--926WINDOW7C(CULV Calpella)2000--LEDIC
( 2009 / 06 / 29 00:10)
(CPI) 2010-2011 2 CPI 3-6%
20078
( 2009/06/12 15:07)20092010
(1) (2) (3)
200920102009/6/13 121.25%2009/7/30 12802009/7/28 FED2009/8/7 1100%84%2009/8/12 FED20117%
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3) MACD
(1)(2)
!
!END
**
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