Macroeconomics Chapter 11 中级宏观经济学 沈凌 上海财经大学经济学院

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 1

中级宏观经济学

沈凌

上海财经大学经济学院

http://iclass.shufe.edu.cn/teacherweb/users/shenling/

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 2

中级宏观经济学 答疑时间： 周三下午 2 ： 00－ 5 ： 00，如需其

他时 间，请先预约。 答疑地点： 经济学院楼 524室 电话： 65903483 Email: ling.shen@mail.shufe.edu.cn

助教： 车大为 dwche@yahoo.com.cn

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 3

教科书： Robert Barro: Macroeconomics -- A Modern Approach

Others ： G. Mankiw: Macroeconomics

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 4

评分及进度 评分： 作业及平时课堂回答问题 : 30% 期中考试 : 30% 期末考试 : 40%

进度： 基本每周一章。

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 5

C h a p t e r 1

Thinking About Macroeconomics

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 6

What can we learn from this course?

Macroeconomics

Determining the aggregate economic variables

Nominal variablesReal variables

real GDPConsumptionInvestmentExport & Import

Unemployment Rate

General price levelMoney supplyInterest rateExchange rate

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 7

Output, Unemployment, and Prices in U.S. History

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 8

Output, Unemployment, and Prices in U.S. History

Growth rate of real GDP for year t

Multiply by 100 to get the growth rate of real GDP in percent per year.

1

1

t

tt

Y

YY

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 9

Output, Unemployment, and Prices in U.S. History

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 10

Output, Unemployment, and Prices in U.S. History

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 11

Output, Unemployment, and Prices in U.S. History

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 12

Output, Unemployment, and Prices in U.S. History

Inflation rate for year t 1

1

t

tt

P

PP

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 13

Output, Unemployment, and Prices in U.S. History

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 14

A Brief Introduction of Chinese Success

(All data without special notes are from Chinese Statistical Yearbook)

Nominal 1978: 2005: GDP 364.5 Billion RMB 18308 Billion RMB GDP p.c. 381 Yuan RMB 14040 Yuan RMB

02000400060008000

100001200014000160001800020000

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

GDP(Bi l l i on RMB) GDP per capi ta (RMB)

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 15

Real GDP

0. 0

200. 0

400. 0

600. 0

800. 0

1000. 0

1200. 0

1400. 0

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Real GDP I ndex 1978=100 Real GDP per Capi ta

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 16

Growth rate ( in RMB )

Growth rate per year (1978- 2005)

0. 0

2. 0

4. 0

6. 0

8. 0

10. 0

12. 0

14. 0

16. 0

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

GDP GDP per capi ta (GDP per capi ta)线性 (GDP)线性

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 17

Who enjoys ?

Poverty level: <100 yuan p.c. in 1978 250 Million <625 yuan p.c. in 2000 32 Million

Poverty Rati o(%)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1978 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1992 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 18

In general, Gini coefficient of the income increases since 1985.

Rel at i ve i ncome of the rural to the urban

0. 00

0. 10

0. 20

0. 30

0. 40

0. 50

0. 60

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 19

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

consumpti on i nvestment net export

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 20

0. 010. 020. 030. 040. 050. 060. 070. 080. 090. 0

pri vate consumpti on publ i c consumpti on

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 21

如何去理解我们这个世界？ 亚里士多德的观察： 鸡毛下落速度远慢于铁球

伽利略的实验：

两个铁球同时落地

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 22

如何去理解我们这个世界？ 实验的条件是什么？

忽略空气浮力

模型与假设

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 23

Economic Models

Endogenous variables are the ones that we want the model to explain.

Exogenous variables are the ones that a model takes as given and does not attempt to explain.

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 24

Economic Models

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 25

Economic ModelsThe Coffee Market

目标 我们想去了解咖啡价格的决定因素。

什么因素促使咖啡价格上升？ --- 买的人多了 --- 西方文化的流行 --- 咖啡对身体健康作用的发现

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 26

Economic ModelsThe Coffee Market

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 27

Economic ModelsThe Coffee Market

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 28

Economic ModelsThe Coffee Market

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 29

Economic ModelsThe Coffee Market

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 30

Economic ModelsThe Coffee Market

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 31

Economic Models

Disequilibrium a discrepancy between the quantities of labor demanded and supplied.

New Keynesian model, argues that some prices are sticky and move only slowly to equate the quantities of goods demanded and supplied.

Macroeconomics Chapter 1 32

Economic Models

Economic growth model

Equilibrium business-cycle model - basic market-clearing model of economic fluctuations