宏观经济学 Macro-Economics

Macro-Economics Email: [email protected]

1.2030GDP2.

1929-1933 1929-1933

GDP1. GNPgross national product GNI gross national income2. GDPgross domestic product(GDP) ()

3.GNPGDPGNPGDP.GDPGNPGNPGDPGNPGDPGNPGDP

GNPGDPGNPGDPGNPGDPGNPGDPGNP

4.12GDP34GDP

5. final product goods

6. Intermediate goods value added

GDPA.B.C.GDPA.B.C. GDP

1. expenditure approach final product approach C consumptionGDPGDPCIG(XM)1() 2 3()

Iinvestmentfixedinventory

replacement = = -

GGovernment purchase

XM net exportsXM

GDP(;%)

GDP197836062239(62.1)1378(38.2)-11.4(-0.3)19804593 3008(65.5) 1600(34.8) -14.7(-0.3) 198590775986(66.0)3458(38.1)-367.1(-4.1)19901934812091(62.5)6747(34.9)510.3(2.6)19956321736748(58.1)25470(40.3)998.6(1.6)20009874961516(62.3)34843(35.3)2390(2.4)200518713199051(52.9)77857(41.6)10223(5.5)2009345024165527(48.0)164464(47.7)15033(4.3)

2. income approach ----W+i+R+EGDP factor payment approachGDP+ 31 2 3

13/173-15%

GDP

GDP2003135539.14 67260.69 21551.46 19362.42 27364.57 2002118020.6960099.1418493.7716573.1222854.642001106766.2654934.6516779.2815027.3620024.97200097209.3749948.0714972.4113760.2718528.61199987671.1345926.4313209.0411870.1716665.49199775606.4139860.6810365.119989.9915390.75199557632.7830453.777116.337407.3012655.38199225892.3112970.553331.733462.906127.13199121141.2611027.822606.082805.254702.11

3. production approach GDP

sector approach GDPGDP

GDP(;%)

GDP197836451028(28.2) 1745(47.9) 873(23.9) 381 198045461372(30.2)2192(48.2)982(21.6)463 198590162564(28.4)3867(42.9)2585(28.7)8581990186685062(27.1)7717(41.3)5888(31.6)164419956079412136(19.9)28680(47.2)19979(32.9)504620009921514945(15.1)45556(45.9)38714(39.0)7858200518493722420(12.1)87598(47.4)74919(40.5)14185200934050735226(10.3)157639(46.3)147642(43.4)255752010397983

4., 12GDP

1.NDP net domestic productsNDPGDPNDPGDPGDPNDPGDP

2.NInational incomeGDPNDPNI NDPNI

3. PIpersonal incomePI NI +

4. DPIdisposable personal incomeDPIDPICS DPI = GDP Z TDPI = PIZT

5.GDP NDP 80005000500300020003000250050020001500GDP=8000+5000+2500+2000-1500=16000NDP=16000-500=15500NI=15500-2000=13500PI=13500+500=14000 DPI=14000-3000-2000=13000NDP NI NI PI PI DPI

2010GDP(trillion US$)

Chart6

16.28

14.66

6.56

5.88

5.46

3.32

2.58

2.25

2.09

2.05

1.8

1.57

1.54

1.46

1.41

1.24

1.04

1.01

Sheet1

16.28

14.66

6.56

5.88

5.46

3.32

2.58

2.25

2.09

2.05

1.8

1.57

1.54

1.46

1.41

1.24

1.04

1.01

Sheet1

Sheet2

Sheet3

6.GDP GNPGDPGDPNIDPI

GDP177271884614451579921.30.3

1. GDPGDPGDPGDP()GDPGDPGDPGDPIPD Implicit Price DeflatorGDPGDP

2. CNPComprehensive National PowerGDP

1. GDP=NDPNIY=

GDPGDP = C + IGDP = C + SGDP = CIGDP = CS C+I=GDP=C+S I=S Y

I = SI = S i = s i = s = i < s < i > s >

2. YGDPY=C+I+G C+I+G = Y = C+S+T I+G = S+T I= S+T GT GY=C+S+TT=T0-Tr

3.YC+I+G+X-M (X-M)YC+S+T+Kr Kr C + I + G + (X-M) Y C + S + T + Kr I + G + (X-M) S + T + Kr I S +TG MKr X

1.122230GDPNDPNIPI4mp3

2.IU 0>0y>AEIU>0

3.E = yE = c + iy = c + sI = Sc + i = c + si = s

1.()()2.

cyc cy dc / dy 0 ycc=c(y)c=y450 A

c = a + by 1 b 0a-by-b-,

3. propensity APC average propensity to consume/c/yAPC

MPCMPCMPC11 > MPC > 0 marginal propensity to consume1MPC c/ y dc/dy1001208094 MPCc/ y 94-80/120-100 0.7

APCa = 0c = kyAPCMPC

s-y-s = syds / dy 0c = a + bys = y - cs = y -a + bys = - a + (1-b) y 1b0s = y - c s = s y 0sy s= -a + 1 - b y0sy

5., APS average propensity to save/ APS = s / y1008020 APS =s / y = 0.2MPS marginal propensity to save1.MPS=s/y= ds/dy

MPS1001208094 MPS S/Y 26-20/120-100 0.3MPS1bMPSMPSAPSMPS>APSMPS

MPCAPC1.010.891.000.850.990.750.970.640.940.590.920.530.89

6.y = c + sY y/y = c/y + s/y APC + APS = 1 y = c + s yc,sA450c=c(y)y0a-as=s(y)RichPooryy/y = c/y +s/y MPC + MPS = 1:MPCMPS

yc,sA450c=c(y)y0a-as=s(y)y = c + s

7. 1 23

1. (James S.Duesenberry)

2. F.Modigliani12

3. M.Friedman12 >

1.iy = c + i , c = a + by.c1000+0.8y,i600yc,c+ic=1000 + 0.8yc=y450 1000 5000y(1000600)/10.8 8000cy-i8000-6007400 sy-c 8000-740060016008000c + iy = (a+i) /(1-b)

2.s = y c = -a + (1-b)ys -1000+(1-0.8)yi600 s = - 1000 + (1-0.8)y 6000-1000s,iy5000 8000i = s i = -a + (1-byy =( a+i)/(1-b) y(1000600)/(10.8)8000si=600y8000 s0y5000

1. y(1000i)/(10.8)i600y8000yc,c+ic=1000 + 0.8yc=y450 1000 500016008000c + i1c + i285001700i700y85001005005c10000.8y

100y11000.81008080y2 80800.864y364y1001000.81000.80.8....100 1/10.8500yc,c+ic=1000 + 0.8yc=y450 1000 500016008000c + i1c + i285001700y i100 100 100 80 80 64 64GDP

2.multiplier KKIC ADai yAD/(1b) a i by =( a+i)/(1-b)

bA.0.6B.0.4C.0.75

c=100+0.8yi=501280031001 y(10050)/(10.8)750c1000.8750700syc750700502 800750503100y100100/10.8)1000750250yyy1000750250

4 y10050/10.9)1500syc1500(1000.91500)1500145050100y100100/10.9)20001500500y 20001500500 4c=100+0.9yi5010055c1000.8yc1000.9y5(k1/(10.8)5)10(k1/(10.9)10)

1.NINIDPINI+

c a + by c a + byTtry DPIyTtrTtr

2.1 kgy/ggyg1g2y1y2

3ki4ktr

5 kb=1g =T

c=100+0.8yi=50g200tr62.5T25012312001231 y(100502000.862.50.8250)/(10.8) 10002b0.81/1b5 ,=5 4 ,4 ,13y1200 y 120010002001g y /k200/540 2T 200/450 3g T200

14 ISLMIS-LM

1.2.3.4. MEC5. MEI 6.q

2.1423

3.iir di/dr 0 irie-dr ir%i= e dre er=0d

4. MEC Marginal Efficiency of Capital R0nRnrrRR1R2RnJr

5.MECMECiriMECr%

MEI Marginal Efficiency of investment MEIMEIMECMECiMEIMECr1r2MEIr%

6.q Jamas Tobin 1918-2002,>1

IS1.IS2.IS3.IS4.IS5.IS

1.IS, i = sy = c + i c = a + by.y = (a+i) /1-bi= e-dr ISI investment Ssave

2.ISIS yISr%

3.IS1i=s23ISi=sIS4ISis

ISyr%y1isyyy3IS

c= 200+0.8yi = 300-5rISIS r = 100 - 0.04ya200 b0.8 e300 d5IS y=2500-25r

4.ISISIS yr%IS

5.ISdbISbdISddISdISd0ISbISbIS

31.12L1 = L1 y= k yL2 = L2r=whrrL2 = hr

3.L = L1 + L2 = ky hrPL(ky-hr)PL(m)rL=L1+L2L(m)rL1=L1(y)L2=L2(y)

L(m)rL=L1+L2L(m)r

4.M1mrmm0 m1 m2

5.r1, >L(m)rLmEr1r0r2m1r2>m0m2> r0,

6. L(m)rL2mr1r2m0L0L1r0m1

2m0m1r0r1L(m)rLmr1m0 m1m2r0m1m2r1

7.Baumol W.J.

yQtcry/Qtc y/QQQQ/2rQ/2C tc y/Q + rQ/2dC/dQ- tc y/Q2+r/20Q2 2 tc y / r 3303015015

LM1.mm L L1(y) + L2(r)mL1L2L1L2L liquidity M money

2.LM m L L ky hr LMm ky hryrLMm/k m = 300 L = 0.2y - 5rLMLMy = 25r + 1500m = ky hr 300 0.2y - 5r

3.LM1 L = m3LM L = mLM Lm24LM Lm>LM Lm

LMyrLMr1r2y1 ABE2E1y2LmLm

4.LMm/hm/kyrLMPMmLMMPm LMm/hm/km M/P MP1

2 LMLMLMLM LM

5.LMLMyrLMm/hm/khkkhLMk/h

6.LMLMk/h1h0LMyrLMr1r1

2 h0 r203yrLMr2r1

IS-LM1.ISLMr,y LMISyr Ey0r0

ISLMmry: i=1250-250r s=-500+0.5y m=1250 L=0.5y +1000-250r i=sy=3500-500r (IS) L=my=500+500r LMISLMy=2000,r=3

2.Ar2y1LMISr2LMISyrIS-LMEy0r0BAy1y2r2r1Br2y2ISLMy2>y1,AEBE

3.smiLLMISyrE

iMi>sL

4.yE y LMISyrEEEISLMyEyrEISISEE, LM LME EyEy*

yLMr1 r2yISr%r%

2.

GDP

1. 1234

2.ISLMy1y2y3y E1

ISr1/1-bg /1-br

3. Crowding out effectgLMy1y2y3y IS1IS2r%g /1-b -dr/(1-b) rLMIS

4.ISISISIS1LMISy1

LMISy0y2y1y3y IS2IS1IS3IS4r%

2ISLMLMLMISr4r1y1r2r3r5y2y3y4y5yLMIS1IS2IS3IS4IS5IS6LMhrr%

5.LMISIS1 IS2LM1 LM2y r0r%y1y2

LMISIS1 IS2LM1 LM2 r0IS0LM r%yy1y2

ISISIS LM1LM2y0r0r1r%y

1. y1y2yLM1LM2ISr%

y1y2yLM1LM2ISr%y3m/k hr/k r

2.LM ISy1y2y3yLM1LM2IS1IS2ISLMISy1-y2 ISy1-y3y2-y1

ISLMLM LMy1y2y3yLM1LM2IS1IS2y4LMLMy2-y1

3.ISLMIS LM1 LM2yr0IS0y1y2r%

ISIS2IS1LM1 LM2yr2r1r0y1r%

0LM IS2 IS1LM1 LM2r2r1r0yy1y2LM h0r%

4.1234

1.E0 ISr%yy0y2E1E0E2IS2IS1LM1LM2r2r1r0y1LM

2.ISLMr%yy0y2E1E0E2IS2IS1LM1LM2r2r1r0y1

( ) c 200 + 0.8y i 300 - 5r L 0.2y - 5r m 3001IS-LM1IS-LM:y 2500 25r , y 1500 + 25r y = 2000 , r = 20 22020

2Gi300 - 5r +GIS -200+0.2y=300-5r+GLMy 1500 + 25ry2000 + 2.5Gy2020G8Mm300 + MLM 300M0.2y-5r. ISy 2500 25ry2000 + 2.5My2020M8

4. ISLMISLMLMLMISISISLMISISLMLM

ISLM

ISLMIS()00(0)0LM()0(0)00

4. Automatic stabilizers123

11 2 ():\ ():\ .

41 2 0 20%1000AA800B1000

A 1000 200 800B 800 160 640C 640 128 512D 512 102.4 409.6E 409.6 81.92 327.68F 327.68 65.54 262.14 5000 1000 4000

1000+ 1000(1-20%) + 1000(1-20%)2 +1000 (1-20%)3 +1000 (1-20%)4 + = 10001/1-0.8=5000rd=1/r

51(r). 2(e) 3(h)

119131

21 2 3

12:1 23 41 212

17 AD-AS

1.AD Aggregate Demand ADCIG(XM)GDP

2.PmM /PMmP

y1y2yr% r1 r2 LM(P1) LM(P2)ISE1E2LM

3.AD LMr=ky/h - m/hLMr= ky /h - M/(Ph)P1M=Pmm=M/PISr=(a+e/d - (1-by/d

ADP1y1y1y2yP P1 P2y1y2yr% r1 r2 LM(P1) LM(P2)ISE1E2D1D2P2y2

4.yPAD ADISLM

7. ADADADADADADADADdkhb

ADADy1y2yP P1 y1y2yr r1 r2 LM(P1)IS1E1E2D1IS2D2ISAD

AS Aggregate supply 1.GDP2.yfNKNK

KyfNKN0Nyy0yfNK

3. N0NW/P(W/P)0(W/P)1N1()WW/P N0NW/P(W/P)0(W/P)1N1

3.yfyPP0P1AD0AD1E1E0AS

1.P1W/P1 N1 NW/P0N0 N2 ND NS W/P1W/P2W/PP2W/P2>W/P0N0N0>N2

2.Ly0yfyPP1P0E0E1yfyfAS

1.CPyAABBCEyfCCAABBCCCCCC

2.C1PyAABBEyfC2C1EC2

AD-AS1.

2.ADPyAD1E1yfASP1E2P2y2AD2AD

3. ASPyAD1E2yfP2AS1E1P1y2AS2E2Stagflation AS

y=2000+py=2400-p1210%310%1 y=2000+py=2400-py2200p2002240010%2160y=2160-py2080p803200010%1800y=1800py2100p300

Unemployment1.2.

3. 21 Full employment

2.MPCMEC450AD1AD0NN2N1AD2YY2Y1Y=fNK3

3.1NDSWW*NEN*EEW *NEN * -NE

2NDSWWENEN*EW *N2N1 N2 N1 N2W*N1

1.1968ArtherOKun1322.52. 1GDPGDP2GDPGDP

1. Currency

2.CPIComsumer Price Index19938571997117419971174857137RPI Retail Sales Index

RPI

Chart2

0

0.02

0.0598039216

0.0240518039

0.0189701897

0.015070922

0.0279475983

0.0883602379

0.0601092896

0.0729013255

0.1853122855

0.1777649102

0.0211406096

0.028887819

0.0538137576

0.1318827709

0.2169478227

0.1479690522

0.0609379388

0.0079407094

-0.0259978992

-0.0299272041

-0.015008338

-0.0079006772

-0.0130830489

-0.0008645533

()100

Sheet3

1978=100100

197810000%

197910222%

1980108.16.16%

1981110.72.62%

1982112.82.12%

1983114.51.72%

1984117.73.23%

1985128.110.49%

1986135.87.76%

1987145.79.97%

1988172.72719%

1989203.430.718%

1990207.74.32%

1991213.763%

1992225.211.55%

1993254.929.713%

1994310.255.322%

1995356.145.915%

1996377.821.76%

1997380.831%

1998370.9-9.9-3%

1999359.8-11.1-3%

2000354.4-5.4-2%

2001351.6-2.8-1%

2002347.0-4.6-1%

2003346.7-0.3-0%

Sheet3

()100

3.10%10%-100%100

1. lnM+lnV=lnP+lnYtdM/M+dV/V=dp/P+dY/Ydp/P = dM/MdY/Y +dV/V MV=PY**

2. y PAD4 AD5ASAD1 AD2AD3

>PYASADfAD0AD1YfP0P1AD0AD1,Y0Y1 , P0P1YASAD0AD1YfP0P1Y0Y1P

3. yPP3P2P1 ADAS

PYASAD0AD1P0P1YPP2P1ADAS2AS1

2. 3123

3. Monetary illusion 12

4. 1234567

1. Phillips curve195818611957W /Wt =f(Ut)

100uPC

2. = -uu* u u*>

3.u%%PCA44

1.Yt t Yt-1 (t-1)

2.FY=AFNKNKAYMRPN NMRPK KF(NK) AY=AF(NK) MRP

1.S=sY sn

2.Y=FN,KY=FN, K1/NNy Y/Nk K /N y fk F1, k ky0 Y/N =F1, K /N y fk

3.nN/N, yY/N kK/NsSsYNK/Nsy-kISKK(0

4.kyk0sy = (n+)kgnsy k+(n+)k+

5.kA k>0kAkAky0syy=f(k)(n+)k k0kyAkA k

C1k1kysy(n+)ky1sy k2y2C2

6.AkAky0sf(k)(n+)k12(n+)k

7.Y = C + IN Y/N = C/N + I/Nf(k)C/N k nkC/N = f(k) - k- nkY/N = f(k)I/N=K/N = k+ nk, f(k) = C/N + k+ nk, k f'(k) = n

ky(n+)kykyCk0 (n+)kMM'MM'MM'

8.Y=FAN,KAAN0A A

2. 123490

1.

1 2 3 4

2.11923 3.5218608~10319255041930205193950~6068~10401880~18421842~18971897

3.1234567

-1.- v =K/Y,KY,K>Yv>1 K =vY Kt=vYt Kt1=vYt-1t I t KtKt-1=vYt-1vYtvYtYt-1tvV

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宏观经济学 Macro-Economics